chpettit19

Teams definitely keep places open for FAs. They can add and remove guys from the 40-man as they want in the offseason, but removing them still makes the player go through waivers. And the crappy teams with open 40-man spots would much rather take a kid off waivers and be able to move them up and down next season between the minors and majors than have to take the kid in the Rule 5 and keep them on the major league roster all year. That doesn't necessarily mean they cut the Smeltzer's of the world immediately after the season. They "keep a spot open" by knowing they have someone like Smeltzer that they're willing to move on from if they find an upgrade. My list wasn't saying they should cut and add those specific players day 1 of the offseason, but those are the 35 (or 36) guys I'd have marked on my board as IN for next season and are only not on the 40-man at the Rule 5 deadline if I've found better players to replace them. The Twins need to have an idea of who in the org they are putting on the 40-man. They need to know which guys are expendable. Then they use that information to make decisions in free agency and trades. They don't just cut borderline 40-man guys immediately, but they see if they can move them for a low level lottery ticket that clears a 40-man spot and adds talent to the system. So I don't mean literally having open spots on the 40-man the whole offseason, but knowing which guys are coming and going and not putting 40 guys on the 40-man that they're not willing to cut when they know they need to sign free agents.

I have no problem with them coming up, and said I'd like to see them up. But Vincent is here because he's easily DFA'd. He's here because the Twins have 46 guys on the 40 man roster right now. Adding Moran or Miranda or whoever else that isn't already on the 40-man means you have to cut 2 guys. 1 immediately in order to add that player and 1 when someone comes off the 60-day. They're giving themselves time to make their final 40-man decisions while taking fliers on guys who they won't think twice about DFAing (Garcia and Garza) in the meantime. So in a vacuum, yes, I want to see Moran and Miranda up, but it's not in a vacuum. There are other factors, namely the 40-man situation. If any of these guys were going to be counted on to be main cogs in the 2022 team I'd be more worried about them getting their feet wet, but neither Moran nor Miranda (the 2 guys most ready to come up, and still healthy) are playing huge roles at the start of next season. So, yes, nice to get their feet wet this year, and they still may in September, but it's not vital. I don't have a problem with them being added, but also don't think it's egregious or unreasonable that the Twins are adding waiver guys like Garcia and Garza to see if they can add talent to the org. Vincent is simply a last-guy-out-of-the-pen place holder and easy DFA.

I'd love to see Moran and Miranda getting their feet wet. But I can also understand them not forcing themselves into decisions before they have to. I don't know if it's when the Twins season ends or when the playoffs end, but the Twins will have to make 6 cuts immediately as the 60 day IL goes away during the offseason. But after that they have until the Rule 5 deadline to make final decisions on their 40 man. Why not give yourself that cushion? Neither Miranda or Moran (or any other prospect, really) is likely to play a big enough role on next year's team that they can't get the jitters out early. Moran will be a mid-relief option who doesn't see a high leverage situation all year probably. Miranda is likely a DH/Util-IF guy next year, not the 3 hole hitter. Winder, and all the other bigger name prospect arms, are going to get rotated through the back end of the rotation, but none of them are going to be relied upon to fill front end roles (or at least they shouldn't). I would enjoy seeing Moran in the bigs, but I don't think it's crazy that the Twins aren't calling him, or Miranda, up right now. I think taking some swings at lottery tickets from outside the org has it's uses while you know your guy is still there and ready to be added to the 40-man after the season.

I don't think it's about not having talent in the pipeline ready for auditions, I think it's not having healthy talent in the pipeline ready for auditions. They have a number of prospects who I think everyone inside and outside of the org thought were going to get some run this year. Basically all of them (outside Moran) have had injuries this year. I don't think there are any minor league arms who are going to be shutdown due to inning limits soon because they've all been hurt and aren't anywhere near their inning goals for the year. They may be shut down because they're injured, but not because they've overthrown this year. Vincent over Moran feels weird and I wouldn't get it except for 2 reasons. 1. They just wanted to fill a pen spot with someone they knew basically would never throw and didn't want Moran sitting here never playing. 2. They likely feel very confident in what they have in Moran. They know if they're adding him to the 40 man or not this offseason. They have 6 guys on the 60 day IL right now so they have 46 guys on the 40 man roster. Adding Moran, or Miranda, or anyone not already on the 40 man means they have to DFA someone else to add them, then DFA another person when someone comes off the 60 day. They don't care about DFAing Vincent or Burrows or a number of other guys, but if they add all the guys they want to keep and are sitting at 46 guys then who are they DFAing? If they load 46 spots with guys they want next year they're losing 6 guys they want next year. They need at least 6 guys on the 40 man they're ready to lose. It's a numbers game.

4 FA pitchers and maybe a SS depending on their feelings about having Polanco back there next year would be my offseason moves. So they need 4 or 5 40-man spots available for outside guys if they're not trying to basically hand half the pitching staff spots to rookies next year. The I'd protect are: Alcala Balazovic Colina Dobnak Duffey Duran Gant Jax Maeda Ober Rogers Strotman Garver Jeffers Rortvedt Arraez Donaldson Gordon Polanco Sano Buxton Celestino Kepler Kirilloff Larnach Refsnyder Miranda Winder Ryan Sands Lewis Moran Enlow Hamilton Vallimont Severino- If only bringing in 4 FAs and not 5 I think I counted right and that's 35 or 36 guys. It feels a little pitcher heavy to me, but that's where they need their options going into next year. I think Refsnyder is the only guy on the maybe list that I keep. Wouldn't be sad to see him go either. I don't think there's anyone on that list with a ceiling high enough to risk losing a more controllable player or stop them from bringing in a FA.

The Rays are in town with our old friend Nelly Cruz. Not having him in the offense anymore makes me sad so I don't want to talk about the Twins offense today. The Rays are known for being one of the most creative teams and finding a way to get the most out of their pitchers by using them in unique ways. Or ending their season by pulling Blake Snell too early in the World Series. Either way. But, in honor of the Rays, I decided to get creative with the Twins 2022 pitching staff. Here's my idea: "Full" Starters: Kenta Maeda, FA1, FA2 "Half" Starters: Bailey Ober, Randy Dobnak, Griffin Jax, Prospect1 "Big 3" Relievers: Taylor Rogers, FA1, FA2 Mid Relievers: Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Caleb Thielbar The Full starters get all the innings they can handle. Getting through 6 is the goal, though. Then after them you turn it over to your Big 3 relievers. So the Big 3 get a day off after most all their appearances (no more Rogers getting blasted on the 2nd night of back to backs). Half starters split games. One guy is set for the first 5 innings. If he isn't able to make it through that the Mid relievers finish off the first 5 innings. The second Half starter takes over in the 6th. They never come in earlier than that as they will need to go through their whole pre-start routine so knowing which inning they're starting allows them to do that better. If they can't finish the last 4 innings they can use any of the relievers depending on recent usage. Opening day would go to Maeda, followed by a half starter day, FA2, half starter day, FA3, original half starter pair, Maeda, and so on. This gives Full starters an extra days rest. The Half starter pairings would switch back and forth in who gets the first 5. Example: Ober starts game 2, gets through 5, Dobnak gets through 3. Game 6 is started by Dobnak with Ober getting the 6th on. Since this takes away a day between games for the half starters you switch back and forth between who's asked to get the 5 innings. I don't think anyone's arm will fall off if they go through 5 every 4 days, but why not give the chance for a little extra rest? And relievers can be used a little more during the dog days to give a little more support as well. If/when one of the Full starters gets hurt, or is ineffective, the guy performing best as a Half starter takes their place and the next prospect up takes their spot in the Half starter role. As for who to sign as FAs, I want 50M or so to go to those 4 spots this offseason. Definitely bigger swings than Happ and Shoemaker types. I'm good with a Pineda type (or Pineda himself) for 1 starter, but want the other to be a bigger name than that. And I want 2 bigger names relievers. But specific players is another talk for another day. So that's my plan for the 2022 Twins pitching. And here are the lineups for today: Starters: Rays: Michael Wacha (2-3, 5.49 ERA) Twins: Kenta Maeda (5-4, 4.69 ERA) Lineups: Rays: Brandon Lowe, 2B Austin Meadows, LF Nelson Cruz, DH Ji-Man Choi, 1B Wander Franco, SS Randy Arozarena, RF Joey Wendle, 3B Kevin Kiermaier, CF Francisco Mejia, C Twins: Max Kepler, RF Brent Rooker, LF Jorge Polanco, 2B Josh Donaldson, DH Luis Arraez, 3B Mitch Garver, C Miguel Sano, 1B Rob Refsnyder, CF Andrelton Simmons, SS

I don't know what to say to you if your thought process is that Larnach is failing because he isn't as good as the 10 guys you've listed. You're saying over 99% of major league baseball players are failing. The comparisons you're trying to make just aren't realistic. Larnach, even being a first round pick, was never supposed to be what any of those 10 guys are. The hitters taken in the 1st rd of the 2018 draft: 2. Joey Bart (college), 3. Alec Bohm (college), 4. Nick Madrigal (college), 5. Jonathan India (college), 6. Jarred Kelenic (HS), 10. Travis Swaggerty (college), 12. Jordan Groshans (hs) 13. Connor Scott (HS), 17. Jordyn Adams (HS), 19. Nolan Gorman (HS), 20. Trevor Larnach (College), 21. Brice Turang (HS), 23. Anthony Seigler (HS), 24. Nico Hoerner (College), 25. Matt McLain (HS), 26. Triston Casas (HS), 28. Seth Beer (College), 29. Noah Naylor (HS) Those are the guys we should be comparing Trevor to in his development. Not 10 of the best players on the planet. I'm not going to pull all the numbers from each of these guys, but knowing generally how the rest of these guys are doing right now Trevor is right in line with them. There's not a guy on this list that compares to the guys you've been listing. There's not a guy on this list who was even talked about as a potential all-star this year. Trevor still doesn't have the highest ceiling (think Kelenic wins that by a mile in this group), but is right in line with where he should be.

Not sure that picking 4 potentially all-time-great hitters (Soto, Tatis, Acuna, Vlad Jr) and 5 other elite prospects is really useful perspective here. I've never seen anyone suggest Larnach is going to be a superstar. There's also a key difference between those 9 guys and Larnach...Larnach is American and the earliest he could have started getting professional coaching was at the age of 18.. Those other guys are international signings who spent their lives in baseball academies doing nothing but playing baseball and were signed at the ages of 16, 16, 16, 19, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16. The only one who wasn't getting minor league coaching in America by the age of 17 was playing in the Cuban professional leagues at the age of 16. I don't see any useful comparison between those players and Larnach beyond pointing out that he isn't on a Hall of Fame trajectory in his early 20s.

I guess I read this differently than some others here. I read this as "hey, these guys don't have great stuff, weren't top prospects, and weren't really expected to be MLB contributors, but look what they're doing. If these low level guys have been developed into useable arms, even if it's just a short stretch, we can look at that and have hope that the big name guys can come up and be the kind of arms we need." I didn't see anywhere in here that Ted suggests these 3 are the future of the Twins starting staff or are what we've all been hoping for in homegrown, top-of-the-rotation arms. He doesn't even suggest that this is what we should expect from the rest of the prospect arms and should be happy about it. My read on the article is simply that there's light at the end of the tunnel and reason for optimism. If the lesser thought of arms can produce at this level we can have reasonable expectations that 1 or 2 or 3 of the 10 bigger named guys can perform at the level we want/need.

I said 85-89. I think the offense is entirely capable of playing division winning baseball, and I have faith that the FO can use 50M or so on pitchers with prospects filling in to provide a solid pitching staff. I think this was a 1 year disaster (2021), a less than desired, but still relatively competitive year (2022), and back to fighting for 100 wins moving forward (2023 and beyond).

Not concerned. He was an inside out, left center gap, Joe Mauer type hitter his whole amateur career. Pulling for power was an adjustment he worked on all of last year (according to reports). Not surprised that he came out with a pull heavy, power approach this year as that's what he'd been working on and was supposed to be in AAA balancing his approach to be able to do both. Instead he got the call because of injuries and ML pitchers are really good at attacking holes in a swing. Him starting to go the other way more now is encouraging. He also has the power to get the ball out to center and left center as we've seen. From everything I read and hear about him he's obsessive about hitting and I think that leads him to finding a balance and being a very solid 5 hole hitter for the Twins for the foreseeable future.

The way some people on here talk about rookies, and Larnach's current struggles, they would've cut Trout, or traded him for a vet, after his rookie season. Not at all predicting Larnach is going to become Trout with the bat, or even be an above average MLB player (although I do think he'll be an above average bat for many years), but lets get a little perspective here. He's a rookie forced into MLB time earlier than they would've liked because of injuries to vets. And, as others have pointed out, the Twins WON THIS GAME. To each their own, but why choose to be negative when you could be positive?

I'm all for being active on the fringes of the 40 man, but you have to make the right choices with it. And ML data is more helpful in that than AA or AAA data. They've got a lot of guys on the fringes and will have to make a lot of decisions before and after the rule 5 deadline. I think/hope they'll have a good 50-60+ mil to spend this offseason. Much of which should/will go to the pitching staff. Going to need 40 man spots for those FAs. Moran looks great in the minors, but I'd prefer to see him actually succeed in the majors. Same with Garza and Garcia. I know I'm in the minority, but I see a pretty reasonable path to competitiveness in 2022. The whole offense, minus Simmons, is back and good enough to compete. And if they can spend 60m on FA arms in addition to an influx of some of these young guys I don't see why they couldn't build a competitive staff. If that's the case then you need to know if you can count on Moran to help the big league club next year for peanuts, or if that's another spot you need to spend real FA $ on. Same with Garza and Garcia and Burrows, etc. I agree Coulumbe and Minaya are easy DFAs, but there's a number of other guys on the edges that they need answers on. Or I'll be back on here next year having to read 1000 comments about how dumb they are that they let fringe 40 man pitcher X go and he's crushing it in Tampa while fringe 40 man pitcher Y is in St Paul getting shelled. So, sure, bring in the Garza's and Garcia's, but DFA Coulumbe and Minaya now if you already know you're going to do that. Get some of these guys ML innings and have a more informed data set for the offseason. And if Moran (or any other fringe guy) is going to struggle early, let them struggle in this lost year instead of struggling at the start of next year and tanking that season, too.

My hope is they're trying out the likes of Coulombe, Minaya, and Burrows now. Once they're convinced one way or the other on those guys being on the 40 man they'll try out a few more guys. At this point the rest of the season should be meant to decide who's earned 40 man spots for next year. They're in a situation where they have a ton of fringe 40 guys and need to pick the right ones to protect. It is interesting that they keep claiming fringe 40 man guys from other teams (Garza and Garcia types), though. I'd think testing Moran out and seeing if he should be protected would be more important than either of those guys. Moran will get taken in the Rule 5 if he isn't protected. Perfect candidate as a pen guy who you can stash even if he struggles.

Soularie has average to slightly below average speed. But he's a good athlete and knows how to use his limited speed well. He was an OFer in college, but last I heard the Twins were going to try turning him into a 2B. Anyone have any update on those plans?

I appreciate the strategy that no DH brings to the game, but can't stand watching pitchers "hit." They're so bad at it (and no, naming 5 pitchers who are decent at it won't change my mind) that it has no use in the game anymore. Especially in the playoffs. I watch professional sports to see the best of the best do what the rest of us can't. I don't want to tune into a playoff game and watch Max Scherzer strike out Blake Snell on 3 pitches in the wildcard game, let alone game 7 of the World Series. I want to see Max have to battle Cruz. 1 flare in every 10 ABs dropping in does nothing for me. It's not exciting to me to see that. Give me the best pitchers facing the best hitters. That's what I pay far too much money to see.

I think the Twins and Brewers only playing 2 series a year is a glaring mistake. The series at the end of the month will be the most attended series of the season and the Twins are trash. Want to fill the stadium more frequently? Have teams in town with fans nearby that will attend. Now there's some hurdles to this as some teams (Seattle) are just not close to anyone. And MN is kind of in no mans land as far as easily building regional rivalries that would provide an influx of fans in the stadium each season, but that's why I think them seeing the Brewers come to town for 3 games a year is a mistake. The NFL is a national sport. Baseball is becoming more and more regional. And with 1 game a week there's more demand to get into your home stadium for one of the 8 home games a year in football. Baseball needs to be creative with creating demand to get into the stadium when there's 81 home games a year. They also need to create a better national following for teams outside of the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox, but that's a different discussion for a different day.

Agreed. I'd like to see them realign some things with care to keep as many current rivalries in place as possible. You want more fans in stadiums? Bring the teams with fans nearby to the stadium more often. Twins are terrible, but I'm sure the Brewers games at the end of the month will be the most attended of the year. With universal DH there's really no reason not to have the Brewers and Twins in the same division.

I live in the cities, work in baseball analytics, have MLB.tv and BSN, have Twins season tickets, used to watch or attend 150+ Twins games a year while watching on average 1 other game a day, but have watched maybe a dozen non-Twins games this year to go along with maybe 2 dozen Twins games. Three true outcome baseball with shifts taking away baserunners constantly, the aversion to base stealing, and every AB seemingly taking 8 pitches to get to the inevitable K, BB, or HR is ruining the product. And it feels like there's more plodding corner OFers now that are there for their ability to hit balls 450ft without a care to defense. The athleticism of the game overall feels lesser and that's less entertaining. People tune into sports to see people do things the rest of us can't. Like run real fast and jump real high. I'll watch a game featuring Buxton, Acuna, Tatis, Trout, Ohtani type guys even if their team is bad because their athleticism is incredible on it's own. The efficiency of front offices has taken away a lot of the excitement in the game because they've reduced the need for athleticism. If the Twins were better I'd watch them more. I'm a prospect watcher so as they call guys up I'll tune in to see how they look at the big league level, and if/when Buxton comes back I'll tune in to watch him. Have a few more games to attend to pretend I'm getting value out of my season tickets, but Twins baseball (and baseball in general) is no longer appointment viewing for me and I'm about as diehard and dedicated to the game as anyone you'll find. The pandemic changed things and any work stoppage over the CBA may be a deathblow to MLB as we know it. It'll still be around, but will be down by hockey in terms of popularity. Long post and will end with this, MLB is a regional sport and they're doing themselves no favors by having the Twins play the Brewers only 6 or 7 times a year. Build regional rivalries across the leagues and spread the talent out more. Have to get people to tune into games outside their region and give other franchises a better chance to build a national brand so every ESPN game isn't either a Yankee or Dodgers game.

Developing pitching and acquiring pitching are 2 different things. Developing pitching is acquiring minor league arms and turning them into major league arms. Acquiring pitching (based on your comment there you're talking about building a competitive major league staff) is bringing in guys who can succeed at the major league level. The Twins had the 9th and 4th best ERA in baseball the last 2 years, and had seen their MLB staff ERAs improve every year since they'd taken over. This year they were obviously a complete bust and they failed miserably. But overall I'd say they've shown an ability to acquire ML pitching. They may not be elite at it, but 2021 is the outlier, not the norm in following with their trend the previous 4 years. The big question, and the one that will/should determine their fate, is their ability to develop pitching. Having good, young pitching on cheap deals is an absolute necessity for the Twins (and every team really, like Buehler, May, Gray, Gonsolin, etc. with the Dodgers). They have yet to show they can do that. But they have their main stockpile of arms at AA and AAA now so the answer should become apparent soon. If none of their tops arms produce in 2022 or 2023 then we can say they likely aren't the answer and bring in somebody else who can produce that pipeline. But their previous 4 years of building MLB pitching staffs show they have the ability to do that.

If they're going to trade anyone I'd think they'd look to trade Sano or Rooker. But with Sano only having 1 more guaranteed year and Rooker still having an option (I believe) it's also possible they keep them both for depth next year and move on from Sano in 2023. I'm not sold on Rooker. He has negative defensive value anywhere you put him so he's a DH only, and I just don't see a bat that will be good enough to warrant that. But I've been wrong before.

Agreed on the trading of a catcher. But I take Kirilloff out of that LH OF bat list. He's a 1B moving forward. He can fill in at the corner OF spots, but he's their starting 1B from here on out I think.

I don't trade any of these guys. Cot's Baseball Contracts have the Twins at about $68M of payroll next year with predicted arb raises. That's not very much. They can still run out these position players: C- Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt 1B- Kirilloff/Sano/Rooker 2B-Polanco/Arraez/Miranda/Gordon 3B-JD/Arraez/Miranda SS-(Polanco/Gordon/Lewis/Martin) LF-Larnach/Rooker CF-Buxton/Kepler RF-Kepler/Larnach/Rooker That's a playoff caliber setup. I'd like to see them bring in a SS, but would be ok with Polanco moving back there if they can really bolster the pitching. There's solid depth there, but not enough that I think you can survive trading away any of the 3 guys suggested in this article. Kepler never became the all-star we'd hoped, but he's an above average defender in right who can fill in in CF and is more than good enough to hit 6-9 on a playoff team. The pitching is the problem. Trading away your 1 reliable bullpen arm doesn't help the retooling situation. Cot's seems to have accurate information so I have no reason to doubt their $68M claim. If that's the case I'd say the Twins have (or at least should have) $70M to spend this offseason to fill in the pitching around Maeda and Rodgers. They need a lot of arms, but with the prospects coming and 70M they should be able to field a competitive staff. And pairing that with the offense they have they should be able to give the White Sox a scare next year. It's felt like we've had an abundance of offensive depth lately, but I don't think that's really the case anymore. There will be injuries. Every team faces them. Kirilloff is our 1B moving forward. He can fill in the corner OF spots, but then you have to fill his 1B role (Sano and Rooker are fighting for a DH role to me). I don't think we have an abundance anywhere to trade from. But I think they have the depth to be competitive and the payroll space to rebuild the staff quickly.

Story will be a free agent so we wouldn't have to trade anyone to get him. Just sign him to a deal.

Ok, that is different than the complaint you made about them not knowing they had garbage prospects. I agree they should have been more aggressive in 2019 when they had a real shot at winning. Not blowing the system up, but definitely would've liked to see a deal for a legit arm to help out for the stretch runs and playoffs that year. That's the only deadline I fault them for, though. Trading away a bunch of prospects in 2017 when they were still getting a feel for the org and where they were at doesn't seem smart. They weren't good enough in 2018, and 2020 was too crazy of a year to try to do anything crazy. But 2019 I would've liked to have seen a big swing.