chpettit19

Martin was drafted #5 overall last year. He's started his professional career at AA and is more than holding his own. Most prospect sites have his ETA as next year. The only real question anyone has had about his bat is if he'll hit 10-15 HRs or 20-25. Probably a Lewis type defender who is borderline at SS, but can go to CF, 2B, 3B or almost anywhere else easily. He's a huge get.

MLB Network reporting Berrios to the Jays

Ask and you shall receive? 1 of their top arms and 1 of their MI guys would make me so happy.

I don't think it's been super common, but the game is also changing drastically when it comes to defensive positions. It also wasn't common for a former MVP like Kris Bryant to start playing all over the diamond instead of just sticking him at 3rd. Having Abrams being able to play CF (really no reason to think he couldn't do it) and SS also covers up for Tatis and Grisham when they're hurt. Allows you to sit guys and not have to replace a Buxton with a Cave. If the NL gets the DH like everyone expects them to it allows you to keep Tatis and Grisham in your lineup but not have to play the field everyday. Baseball is becoming more and more about just getting the best hitters together and figuring out positioning later (with the exception of SS and C). If they "ban" the shift things may change again, but at this point if there's not 9 better hitters than Abrams on their roster at some point next season the Pads won't care what position everyone plays, he'll be in their lineup. I'm not a big fan of the Pads as a trade partner. Gore has been bad for too long that it is no longer just a blip. He needs to be "fixed," and that's not the type of return I want for Berrios. I like Hassell and Campusano, but not sure that's the return I'd want either. Wish Toronto was more in on things as I think they've got the best pieces to bring back. But Abrams is fun to dream about in this awful season.

I'm all for the Twins trying to get Abrams. The comment I was responding to said "there's no room for Abrams in the long future of San Diego." That is absurd. Him moving to CF (Grisham to a corner) doesn't kill Abrams' value. If he's a plus defensive CFer (should be unless he's simply incapable of judging a fly ball) with his bat he's just as valuable as he'd be at SS. Teams find a place for the #1 prospect in baseball. Not saying it's impossible that they trade him, but they're not trading him because they don't think they can get him on the field on their own team.

I'd think it could be "deflating" for fringe NL contenders, but I don't think those are really the teams going after Berrios. Like maybe the Braves aren't willing to buy as much as previously as it's even a higher bar to clear to get over the Dodgers this year. But Preller and the Pads don't seem like they're in "back down to the Dodgers" mode these days. But I'd guess they didn't get Scherzer cuz they're sticking to the "not trading any of our top 4 guys" stance and if that's the case I don't want Berrios going there.

Not sure why the Padres wouldn't have room for Abrams in the future. He's one of the fastest players in the minors and could easily move to CF and be a plus defender there. Or slide over to 2nd. If he's the player people think he is they'll find room for him. You don't move the #1 prospect in baseball because you don't have a place for him on your currently 3rd place team.

I need more specifics out of Shoe if he's going to make these kinds of statements. What did they change? To me "analytics" is about pitch mix and location. Almost every team is using that information, and the good teams all are. I'm not aware of any edict by the Twins that pitchers aren't allowed to shake off catchers, or that pitches are being called from the dugout. So if he wasn't liking what pitch was being called or where they were asking for him to throw it he should've been shaking people off. Like every other pitcher does. Now if he's talking driveline type technology driven mechanical changes I'll be very impressed that within a matter of a couple weeks he changed his mechanics back to what they used to be and also blame him for getting his brains bashed in for months at the big league level and not changing back. That's on him.

Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball in 2019. (4th best in 2020, but you don't want to look at that) I think the point is that the "numbers" were working for the Twins in 2019 when they were a top 10 staff.

Think it depends what the return is. If the Twins bring back a May or Gray from LAD they aren't sitting much worse for next year than with Berrios, but would also have another prospect or 2 as well. If it's a Gray+Lux return it could be argued they're in a better spot with their SS spot filled and Berrios' 10m to spend on other pitching plus Gray in the rotation over someone in the Happ range.

Fair enough. I don't think he's done some out of this world job, but I don't think the MLB team would've been top 10 in ERA each of the last 2 seasons with Ryan and Co still running the show. I'm higher on the arms in the system than you, but we'll start getting our answers on them the next 2 months and next season. But I certainly don't think you're off in crazy town with your assessment.

Rosenthal reporting Twins have offers in hand from SD (sounds like they're getting Scherzer, though), Tor, LAD, TB, NYY.

Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Kirilloff, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, JT Chargois, Ben Rortvedt, Adalberto Mejia, and Nick Burdi make a better system than Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, Sabato, Canterino, Ryan, Cavaco, Urbina, Enlow, and Rooker? (That's the MLB.com ranks that I don't necessarily agree with) Agree to disagree on the idea that the system is even comparable to now. The depth in the system now far surpasses that from 2016, in my opinion. I assume you're talking Sano, Buxton, Berrios when you say "incredible nucleus of top 100 talents." If you're talking total team talent I guess I'll agree to disagree there, too. Twins Win% from 2011 to now by season: .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 (2016), .525, .481, .623, .600, .417. Hard to argue there was much on the MLB or in the minor leagues. They'd had 1 season over .500 in the 6 seasons before Falvey took over. They've had 3 in his 5 years. He didn't start with nothing, but let's not act like he was handed a team with any real previous success or the Dodgers' budget. Has he been perfect? No. Has he been great? No. Has he improved the team? There's no way you can argue he hasn't. This year has been awful. I get it. But, in my opinion, that shouldn't wipe out everything that happened before it. He failed this offseason. It's as simple as that. He misjudged the FA pitching he brought in. No debate against it. But outside of that he's been pretty darn good.

The comment I replied to said Odorizzi was the only trade the Twins had won with Falvine. So I was just adding in the Maeda deal. Totally agree with everything there. There was talk of Baddoo possibly being taken before the rule 5, but you couldn't find a single person on the planet (nobody for the Tigers, and probably not even Akil himself) who thought he'd be putting up the numbers he is this year. Lots of revisionist history and 20/20 hindsight takes place during seasons like this. Understandably I guess. People need to blame someone.

Twins team ERA per season since the season before Falvey got here til now: 5.49, 4.86, 4.78, 4.65, 3.58, 5.36 Twins team ERA rank amongst all MLB teams per season since the season before Falvey got here til now: 29, 19, 22, 9, 4, 28 So yes, this year has been an unquestioned disaster, but let's not act like this team has had atrocious pitching the last couple years. They've had top 10 ERAs the last 2 years. So he's probably identified slightly more than 0 quality pitchers. He took an awful team with an awful farm and turned them into a top 10 staff after 2 seasons. Not sure what else you wanted from the guy.

I'd argue the Maeda trade has been an unquestioned win to this point.

I like it. Can't imagine the Padres are giving up Weathers at this point, though. If Snell and Paddack were pitching better I think this is a deal that could maybe get done, but Weathers would start a playoff game over either of those 2 right now so can't imagine they'll deal him. Perhaps Paddack instead of Weathers coming back to MN?

A conversation requires at least 2 parties exchanging ideas. To this point you've refused to share any ideas beyond "the longer this team waits, the less of a return they will get." without any reasoning as to why. So I will move on to discussions with people who are willing to provide ideas and not just be condescending while refusing to discuss actual ideas. Hope you have a wonderful day.

I don't see your point. You haven't made one. You compared the trade deadline to a test. They aren't comparable things. A test is an individual activity that has only 1 possible answer to each question. The trade deadline is an interaction between dozens of people with moving parts and human dynamics. So if you have a reason to believe that getting closer to the deadline equals worse prospect returns for selling teams I'd love to hear it as perhaps I'm mistaken in my belief and I'm always looking to gain more knowledge. But so far I've provided multiple reasons why I take the stance I do and you've provided a picture of a horse that compares 2 things that aren't comparable.

I don't get it. That isn't an argument against any of the points I made. Do the Twins need to trade Berrios more or do "Contender X" need to add a pitcher like Berrios more? If the Twins don't trade Berrios by tomorrow at 3 CT they still have him for next season. They can still trade him in the offseason. If Contender X doesn't trade for Berrios (or another pitcher of his quality, of which there's only 1 other available) they're stuck. If the Dodgers get Scherzer today does that raise or lower the Padres offer for Berrios? I'd argue it makes Preller more desperate to stick with the Dodgers and Giants by upping his offer. So, if you'd like to have a real discussion on this, I ask again, why is it automatically a failure that they haven't traded him yet? You can respond to my points about the other handful of players I listed in the other post too if you'd like. But I'm not interested in meaningless memes that don't have any actual arguments or counterpoints. Sorry.

Define "long haul." It's looking more and more likely that Berrios leaves after 2022. So if long haul means anything beyond 2022 not sure how getting players (likely very good prospects) back for him that will be around in 2023 and beyond hurts the long haul. If long haul simply means 2022, then yes, losing Berrios hurts as you're likely not getting someone back who will outperform him in 2022.

I'm not sure why deals not having been done yet is such a concern. The Twins have some throw away expiring contract guys (Simmons, Happ, Colome, Robles) who won't fetch anything more than a lottery ticket, if that. so I can't imagine there's real negotiations going on about any of them. They're basically team calls, Twins say we need 1 of these handful of guys, other team says yes or no, move on. Then there's a Pineda type who may have a little more back and forth as he's on an expiring deal, but he's still useful. But he's low on the list of targets for contenders. Sure, a contender will take him for a lottery ticket A ball player now, but if that contender is the one left standing without one of the Scherzer/Berrios level guys it's entirely possible the contender ups their package as they're more desperate to get another arm. As far as Berrios goes I'm not sure why things not getting done yet is bad. Scherzer getting added to the mix changed the dynamics. He became the #1 target of anyone looking for pitching. If the Twins have set their asking price for Berrios and are sticking to it I don't know why that's bad. The goal isn't to unload him just to unload him. They can still deal him during the offseason if they're not getting offers they like now. Or next deadline. Or take their comp pick. I'd like to just get it over with and see what they get, but the idea that they've somehow failed by not trading everyone yet doesn't make sense to me. The deadline itself is a great motivator for the contenders. Not sure why the assumption is the FO is automatically screwing things up because moves haven't happened yet.

Sounds like Seattle is also looking at bats. Wonder if there's a way to package Berrios and one of our hitters to bring back Hancock and Kirby. Can't imagine Seattle would have any desire to trade either, let alone both, but if that's the only other deal the Twins make this season I'd be happy with those 4 arms (these 2 plus the 2 from Cruz trade) being what we added to the farm. Note: This isn't realistic. The Mariners aren't shipping out both guys. But this is my 1 outrageous dream-of-a-trade-to-make-this-season-better idea.

I don't want to see him pitch for the Twins ever again, but I think it all comes down to what happens in the next 47.25 hours. They may need him for a few starts in August just to eat innings, but if they don't move more than 1 pitcher I assume he never starts for us again.

Or is Luzardo's stock down that far? Marlins also covered the rest of Marte's deal this year, I believe, so that upped the return some I'd think.