chpettit19

I think this is a situation of both sides being right. They haven't developed a difference making pitcher yet (for the record Dobnak has been basically a league average pitcher they signed and developed). But they have a quite enviable stable of prospects on the cusp of the bigs, with a few of the low end prospects having debuted or set to debut tomorrow. And they've only been here 4 years. Year 1 is a lot of assessing and planning. Years 2 and 3 were about accumulating talent and beginning their march to the bigs. Year 4 had the minor league world go dark. Not a total excuse for things, but certainly isn't nothing. And now Year 5 is starting to see guys arrive. That's a pretty reasonable timeline I'd think. But the question of whether or not the guys arriving will succeed is still legit. So they've developed a more than solid MiLB prospects, but all they are are prospects until they prove themselves in the bigs. I think the next year will be the deciding time.

If it makes a difference whether they win 60, 70, or 80 games this year to Falvey or Baldelli they shouldn't be in their positions anymore. The season is lost. Winning 80 games instead of 60 this year shouldn't matter. Especially to Falvey. At least not in the terms of whether or not to keep an old SS on an expiring deal. Falvey's job is now to look to the future. His moves this last offseason failed. He needs to be worried about figuring out why that is and coming up with a strategy to fix it and get things moving back in the right direction next year. Baldelli should be doing everything he can to coach up his players and put them in the best situation to succeed just like always. But his priority should be getting the young guys who may be part of the future to improve as much as possible between now and the end of this season. If you think the win total matters to them because of their job security then they should be fired now if this was a make or break season for them. The plan for the entire organization should be to be back in contention for the division title next year and moving forward (and in turn threatening for WS titles). That saves their jobs and this comes out looking like a 1 year misstep. Simmons can still be the option next year after they trade him this year. He'll be a FA and can sign here again if it's the best fit for both sides. Still not a reason to keep an aging SS on an expiring deal during a lost season.

I don't disagree with any of that.

I'm all for having tag team pitchers. I've said on here I'd have 3 starters who get to go until they're ineffective and 2 teams of 2 pitchers who are expected to get through the whole game with just the 2 of them. Ober for the first 5 and Dobnak for the last 4 for a random example. I don't disagree that having starters go longer and cover more innings is better for your bullpen, but the stats you're throwing out aren't proving your point. Creativity is most certainly needed to manage the workload of pitching staffs these days. Especially coming off a shortened 2020 season. But quality starts doesn't show that 1 team vs the other has different rules on how long they'll let their guys go. The fact that the Twins have so many guys with quality starts show they are letting their guys go when they can. They clearly don't have the talent in the rotation those other teams do, but that doesn't mean the Twins aren't managing their staff the same as the league in general. There's a reason there's no team in baseball averaging even 6 innings a start. The A's at 5.7 is the highest with nobody else over 5.5 (3 teams). This is simply how the game is played now.

I don't disagree with that at all.

They need way more SS prospects for sure. I'm just saying the potential traffic jam of 2B/3B guys we're discussing wouldn't be such a problem if any of them could play SS. You have a nice little infield rotation if they weren't all so limited defensively. I think Lewis is likely Buxton's replacement and agree he probably doesn't stick at SS, but I certainly give him the chance to stick their for a year or 2 after he comes back. He can move to CF at any time so I'd keep pushing him at SS if there's any sign he can stick. I'm a believer in the idea that you cheer for the name on the front of the jersey, not the one on the back, so I'm all for moving anyone you can get value for if it makes the team better. If that means moving Arraez, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Kirilloff, whoever I'm all for it. I don't believe in moving any major leaguer to make room for untested prospects, though, unless you're filling a need in another area. I'm open to an Arraez trade for an arm because we have guys who can cover his spots that we more or less know can perform at the ML level. I'm excited for Miranda, Steer, et al, but they're still prospects until they aren't. Wouldn't move on from a batting title contender to make room for any of those guys until they've shown it in the bigs.

I think it will be an interesting next couple years with him and Polanco. If I remember correctly Polanco gets rather expensive in his option year. Between the prospects you mentioned and Polanco there is certainly a lot of competition for the spots Arraez fills best. I don't know what the 40 man timelines are like for any of the young guys, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to stretch the young guys as long as possible in the minors to get beyond Sano's deal for sure and possibly even the tail end of Donaldson's. The real problem is none of these guys are true SSs. 1 of them being a SS would solve a lot of this on it's own.

Totally agree with the assessment of Arraez in conjunction with our MiLB system, but I just don't know how valuable he is on the block. What is a team realistically giving up for a player of his ilk? I have no idea, but I'd guess it's not impressive. Maybe a couple low A fliers? I'd rather have Arraez than a couple lottery tickets. (Full disclosure: Arraez is my favorite current Twin so may be biased here)

Obviously a lot of factors at play over the next couple weeks as they make trade decisions. I think at the core it comes down to 2 things. How good you think you can reasonably be next year and what are the chances any of your "big 3" sign extensions before they hit the market. Can you compete for the division next year? Compete for the WS? Looking at 81-81? Worse? Close on previous extension talks or 10s of millions away in every negotiation? I'd expect the FO to have a number of different possible "routes" to take laid out. Different payroll options from the low to the high end of what ownership will realistically be willing to do next year and what possible FAs they could get at the different levels. With contingency ideas for missing out on their top 5 targets at each position they'd be going after. Then see what people are willing to give up for Berrios, Buxton, Rogers. How does that change each of your 2022 "routes?" If you can get a near MLB ready arm plus a flier or 2 for Berrios and you know he's not signing an extension before he hits the market how does that make your plans look? I don't see a real way for them to compete for a WS next year. I just don't see how they can bring in the arms needed to do it. Their hope for that relies almost entirely on the development of the arms in the system. I don't know near enough about those arms to have confidence on what any of them will look like in the majors for their careers, but I don't think it'd be reasonable for the Twins to think they can fill more than 1 rotation spot with an internal young arm for next year on a WS team. It's just too big of an ask with what we know right now. I also don't know how the extension talks with Berrios have gone. If I don't feel at least 80% confident I can sign him before the end of next year I'm seeing what he's worth. If I get a near MLB ready arm (Pearson and Woods Richardson have been names I've seen on multiple national outlets) I'd be very tempted to make that move. Certainly try to get more on top of them, but I'll take a current big name prospect over a comp pick 100 out of 100 times if I don't see a realistic way I can compete in the walk year of a Berrios type player.

Why does it matter if we watch "AAA" guys lose in Minneapolis or "ML" guys lose in Minneapolis? The season is lost and as a team building strategy it makes no sense to hold onto Simmons for the rest of the season when you can get ABs for guys who may actually be part of the future and have a better idea of if Gordon, Miranda, whoever can be a real part of the team. The rest of this season is about figuring out what holes need to be filled for next year. Finding out if Gordon can fill the SS hole (highly doubtful) or the Utility role (quite possible) is far more valuable than letting Simmons finish the year here. Not to mention the 40 man roster decisions that will be forced on the team this offseason. Need to know which current 40 man guys really deserve to be there and can't be jettisoned to protect a few of the young guys to avoid a Baddoo situation happening again next year. As a fan you have the luxury of only caring about what is happening day to day on the field this year for the Twins. The FO doesn't have that luxury. They need to have an eye to the future as well. That's why you trade expiring contracts during a lost year. Every time.

I think the reason people question the idea of not trading Cruz is that he's on a 1 year deal. They can't trade him during the offseason cuz he's a free agent then and likely has far more suitors as many expect the DH to be implemented in the NL next year. We say there's no reason not to trade Cruz because the team isn't competing this year and if you can get anything at all for him you're better off. Nothing says they can't trade him in the next couple weeks and re-sign him this offseason. I don't think they would as they have far bigger needs (pitching), but he'll be a free agent and can sign with them if that's what he wants to do. It's also nice to send him to a contender late in his career and give him a shot at a ring this year.

Says a lot that you picked out just 1 team out of the top 7 that I presented you. Care to comment on the other 6? 3 of which still average fewer IP/GS than the Twins? Want individual rankings for IP/GS Twins v Rays? Glasnow (6.3), Berrios (6.0), Yarbrough (5.9), Happ (5.1), Hill (5.1), Pineda (5.1), Maeda (4.8), McClanahan (4.6), Shoemaker (4.6). Those are the guys that made the top 131 in baseball in IP/GS. Those are your "real starters" and not relief pitchers starting. My point still stands in every way, shape, and form. This is how the game is played now. You don't have to like it or agree with it. But your attempt to make it sound like the Twins are doing something outrageous and outside of conventional baseball strategy in 2021 is simply wrong.

Pearson or Woods Richardson plus a 7-12 ranked prospect and a couple fliers sounds like a deal Toronto may be willing to make and something the Twins could be interested in. Once players start doing well at AA and especially once they hit AAA and get tastes of the bigs, like the top Toronto arms, it gets really hard to pry them away from teams. Even for established big leaguers like Berrios and Rogers. Not saying the Twins shouldn't, or won't, set a sky-high asking price and need to be blown away to trade a Berrios, Buxton, or Rogers, but I would be absolutely shocked if they could get anything like Pearson AND Woods Richardson, or Dustin May, or Ryan Weathers+. Those years of control matter even for the big spenders. Not even the Dodgers or Yankees can afford to pay a whole team of 20m+/year guys. They need cheap talent, too, and build through promotion just like everyone else.

Where are those projected deals coming from? I can't imagine the Dodgers would trade May straight up for Berrios, let alone throw in 2 other good pieces. Weathers and Hassell (I assume that's the CFer you're talking about) seems a little more realistic, but still don't think they'd do more than Weathers and a low level flier, maybe. May and Weathers are already in the bigs doing well. May has performed better than Berrios the last 3 years, but has had injury problems and doesn't have the innings to really stake a claim to being a top arm in the game, but I can't imagine any reason the Dodgers would want to trade 4 years of May for 1.5 of Berrios.

I just think baseball isn't that popular anymore. What reason do you attribute to the viewership being so low in 2019? I don't remember any dramatic political stance by the league that year. Baseball missing the All Star game last year and playing a shortened season wouldn't bring in more fans, it'd cost them fans. Same concern with a potential loss in games next year with the CBA mess. The dedicated fans that watched in 2019 seem to have mostly all shown up again in 2021. Casual fans didn't miss the game in 2020 the way those of us who really love the game did. Having found other ways to spend their summer nights and new hobbies during the pandemic means they're less likely to come back to the game they were just passively interested in to start with. Any increase in viewership is a win in my book.

I don't know where you were looking if you weren't seeing Ohtani, Tatis, and Vlad Jr everywhere. It got to the point where I was getting sick of seeing Ohtani's face and he's the best all around baseball talent of the last 100 years, if not ever. 8.24 Mil doesn't mean anything without context. And you provided that context earlier by pointing out it is MORE than they got in 2019 (last All Star game). Your argument doesn't hold up on any level. They gained viewership over the last time they had the game and those 3 stars were all over MLB.com, commercials, emails, social media, everything. I don't like MLB or any other league taking political stances. I think that should be for individual players to do if they choose, but that doesn't mean the moving of the game hurt them at all. And you've proved the point that it didn't by acknowledging that they drew more eyes this year than they did in the past. Weird stance to take here.

Others have covered the political comment quite well, so I'll just say that if anyone decided not to watch the game because of where it was played MLB didn't notice. Not 1 bit. So if they were big baseball fans and deprived themselves of the chance to see Vlad Jr go massive big fly and Ohtani throw his 1-2-3 inning because they were making a political statement to MLB it was a pretty idiotic move on their part cuz MLB doesn't even know they exist. As for the claim no major league team can survive by throwing their starters for only 5 innings here are some numbers to consider. The Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 4.8 innings per start (Twins are at 5.1) and are winning at almost a 60% clip while sporting a 3.50 ERA which is good for 7th in baseball. They seem to be surviving. And have been doing this for years. Top 7 team ERAs at the break: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Mets, Marlins, Brewers, Rays. Avg Innings/GS for those teams: 5.4, 5.5, 4.6, 4.9, 5.0, 5.3, 4.8. So 3 of the top 7 are throwing more innings per start than the Twins while 4 of the top 7 are actually throwing less. Those teams certainly seem to be surviving while throwing their starters for only 5 innings a game. Some even less than 5 innings.

Strikeouts have been pretty outrageous for sure. But he's also above average in BB% (59th percentile). And way above average in Barrel % (82nd percentile). Hard hit % is 55th percentile. Avg Exit Velo is 62%. The 2nd percentile K% is brutal, but he's certainly doing quite a bit to counterbalance that (113 OPS+ and 111 wRC+ would say he's been above average even with the brutal K numbers). If your standard for excitement for a rookie is immediate superstar I feel like you're going to live an awfully depressing life as a baseball fan. And for the record Justin Morneau was not good as a rookie. Larnach is outperforming him in every way beyond K% in only a 14 game difference in sample size. So that's a weird comp to make.

He very well may be breaking out. He made some changes to his swing before the year so it's possible he's unlocked something. Chances are just higher that Larnach has a future with the Twins than Refsnyder does so Larnach would be the one I base my decisions on before Refsnyder. It sure would be nice if Refsnyder is a useful piece for next year, too, though! Certainly not suggesting we give up on him or Garlick, just wouldn't be priorities in my decision making. The more guys we can get established the better as far as I'm concerned!

Totally with you on shattering confidence and all that. I've been on here many times pushing back on the idea the Twins, or any team, should just call a prospect up "to see what they have." That's not how prospects should be managed. I'd hope the Twins know Larnach well enough to know how he will/can handle the current struggles. He'd certainly see better controlled breaking stuff in AAA than he did in AA, but the AAA guys still don't control it like the guys in MLB and I don't know that seeing 5 well placed breaking balls a week in AAA is as useful as seeing 25 a week in the majors (numbers obviously completely made up with no reason for those specific numbers). I see big league success as a hitter as being able to adjust to what major league pitchers can do to you to get you out. Sure, he can go to the minors and work on closing holes in his swing in the cage, but if the pitchers can't consistently hit their spots (why most of them are in AAA and not the majors) then the in game reps aren't helping fix the struggle. I just see him as to the point in his career where the real test is being able to adjust to major league pitching and he has to face major league pitching to do that. Don't think it's a tragedy if they send him down, but my read (with far less info or baseball knowledge than the Twins have) is that facing ML pitching is what he needs. As for Refsnyder and Garlick, I think they're useful players, but they'd play no part in my decision making on Larnach. My Larnach decision would be based on what's best for him and those 2 would fight over whatever spots are left on the roster. With the season being lost I'm more concerned about getting the young guys who will be part of the core moving forward ready for the future. Not saying either of the 30ish year olds can't be on the team next year, but I view them as complimentary players. If one hits and forces their way into the lineup next year, great, but my plan can't be based around the hope that one of them turns into Joey Bats and starts mashing at 29 or 30. Odds just aren't far enough in their favor for that.

Agreed. I should've just said "other OFers come back" cuz it's more than just Cave, but he's the left handed bat that the FO or Rocco or whoever seems to really believe in. I don't know a single fan who would be sad to see him go, but teams have done crazier things than keep a guy like Cave in the majors and sending a rookie back to AAA. I just don't think Larnach has anything left to work on in AAA. I think his struggles need to be with the Twins and this is the pitching he needs to adjust to so really just saying I hope he stays in an everyday role at the ML level for the rest of 2021 no matter what results he may have (I tend to think he'll continue to have his ups and downs, but hopefully more ups than downs).

I think cherry picking 3 guys struggling while ignoring the rookies having great years (I know they were 3 big time prospects, although Pache is a glove first CFer and not expected to hit like AK) isn't what I've grown to expect from this site, but I'm happy to see the Twins duo succeeding. I'd like to know what is behind the decision to put Larnach in the 3 hole (he was hitting much better before a recent ice cold streak, granted) instead of Kirilloff. Kirilloff just appears to have the better ability to put the ball in play when needed to drive in the run at this point in their careers. Larnach is the better slugger right now I think, but wouldn't say he's the better overall hitter. Will be interesting to see if Rocco flips them and starts hitting AK in the 3 spot with Larnach in the 5 (or 7 if Kepler keeps mashing out of the break). Either way it's quite encouraging to see them both have early success. Larnach is at his first "adjust to the adjustments" point and it'll be really fun watching him try to make those adjustments in the second half. I hope the Twins aren't tempted to send him down when Cave comes back. Letting Larnach work through his struggles at the MLB level seems like the best outcome from this lost season. His career will be determined by how well he adjusts to the adjustments and getting that started now is a great opportunity for him.

I really hope sending him down isn't the move they make. AAA has a number of very good pitchers, but it looks more to me like his struggles come from well placed breaking stuff and MLB pitchers being better at showing him hard high, soft low. With the season lost I'd hope they give him a chance to work on that at the major league level as he won't face as many AAA pitchers who can spot their stuff with as much consistency. I think he's ready for the majors, but now the "adjustment to the adjustment to the adjustment" starts. Let him make the adjustments at the big league level during a lost season.

That in reality is what happens to most players drafted. There, fixed it for you. Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of high school. So was Jose Berrios. So was Ben Rortvedt (from a WI high school even!). And Nick Gordon. Don't forget Byron Buxton. Kepler signed at 16 (not even out of high school yet!). Sano was also 16*. Arraez also signed as a high school aged kid. I feel like there was some kid out of the same area of New Jersey who got picked 26th overall by the Angels a few years back who came straight out of high school. What was his name again? Oh, Mike Trout. Seemed to work out for him. Yes, the vast majority of players drafted never make it to the bigs. That's the nature of the beast. I mean there are typically 40 rounds in the draft each year. There are top 10 picks who never reach the majors. Of course it is less and less likely they reach the majors as the draft slot gets higher and higher. Don't get the need/desire/whatever to point out that chances are these kids won't become stars, or even make the majors. That's true of most players. The Twins didn't go crazy and pick you and me last night. These are legit prospects with every chance in the world to make their dreams come true and both appear to be hard workers who are going to give it everything they have. Levi Michael was a college shortstop picked higher than Miller was (Michael went 30th) and he never made the majors. It's incredibly hard to make the major leagues. Why not just enjoy the hope for the future with these 2 kids?

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-2021-mlb-draft-preview Interesting read from today.