chpettit19

Precisely. You were much more concise in your statement than I was, but that's exactly where I'm at. Have lots of hope, and a bunch of faith, in these young guys succeeding, but lets see it before we proclaim a hitter of Arraez's caliber is simply surplus.

I don't see the depth so many people see and agree trading Arraez isn't a necessity and shouldn't be done simply because there's a "surplus." As the OP states injuries will happen. They do every year for every team. Going into a season with your starting 9 and saying everyone beyond that is surplus doesn't make sense to me. And as of today Arraez is in the opening day starting 9 without a question. Who is starting in LF for this team come opening day? It's not going to be Larnach, he's starting in AAA unless there's injuries in ST. Are they still ok with Kirilloff in the OF with Sano at 1B most of the time? I think they'd prefer Kirilloff at 1B where the defense is much better, but in order to get JD DH ABs they'll need to be willing to play Kirilloff in the OF still. I'd guess Kirilloff and Arraez are the primary LFers as of today. Did Miranda have an incredible season last year? Yes. In the minors. I'm excited to see what he can bring to the Twins, but I'm not building my team assuming he's going to be as good as Arraez next year, or ever. I'm a "prospect lover" and want the Twins to build through the system, but that doesn't mean you open holes in the lineup for prospects before they've shown they can do things. We traded Hicks and Span to clear a place for Buxton and he was awful for years to start. JD has 2 years left. He's not exactly a long-term solution. What happens if Miranda had a 1 year blip season at AA and AAA and isn't seamlessly stepping in at 3B for the next 6 or 7 years? We've traded Arraez and now have no 3B. Sano is likely gone after this year. Kirilloff moves to 1B fulltime. Kirilloff has wrist issues. Are they done or is he cursed to a career of wrist problems and never becomes the All Star he's capable of being? Who's DHing after Sano leaves? I don't see surplus anywhere in the Twins organization. People pushed and pushed for OFer trades before last year because of the "surplus" of OFers in the system. Now the Twins have Buxton and Kepler and ??????. Would people prefer Rooker in LF over Arraez? I just don't see this surplus. The Twins have a really nice starting 8 (need a SS), but beyond that they have nothing but question marks and unproven players. If you get a great deal for a young, ML starter with years of control left by all means trade Arraez. But don't be shopping him, or anyone, at this point. The offense is good, but certainly not overly deep.

Interesting exercise. The MLB Network top 10 lists are one of my favorite shows they do as spring training gets going. Twins players rarely make the tops of those lists, but the team was winning games the seasons immediately preceding 2021 without having players on those shows regularly. The Twins don't have a ton of players worthy of national attention for greatness, but also lack players worthy of national attention for ineptitude (offensively at least). Atlanta just won the world series with a playoff roster with 1 superstar (Freeman), 1 star (Albies, who didn't perform well), and a bunch of dudes that don't kill you. I think that's pretty similar to the Twins setup. Now Atlanta had arms, and average players (Eddie) perform quite well, and we know the Twins are going to struggle to get pitching this year, but not having a roster full of guys ranking at the top of their position group doesn't kill a team. Obviously prefer to have as many stars as you can, but isn't needed.

I think the 4th option not listed here is my favorite option...hope he hits his usual hot streak as temps start to rise and if the team isn't in contention trade him to one of many teams who would love to have a hot hitting Sano for their playoff push. If he comes in lighter and better and has a great season I could be open to keeping him on his option, but I don't think extending him would make much sense. I'd also be good with not exercising his option and just letting him walk and spending that 14 mil elsewhere. Sano is a good hitter. His numbers are basically always above average. His problem is that he's incredible streaky. I don't think 14 mil would be outrageous for him next year. If he produces 2 WAR he's earned that amount. I definitely don't trade him before the season, but everything is on the table once things get rolling.

2019 sticks out in my head the most, but that may be recency bias at work. It's the series I feel like the team underperformed the most in (they barely showed up). Agree with gunnarthor that depth is the most obvious thread weaving through all the failures. I think that ties in with the FO question. Depth comes from your system and being able to replace guys with your minor leaguers. You can't pay 7 legit ML starters cuz 2 of them aren't going to agree to start in the pen or minors. You can't pay 13 position players who are "starter quality" (I'll define this as you wanting them to play 155+ games) cuz 4 of them won't agree to start on the bench. Even the big spenders build their depth through the minors. Maeda ended up getting pushed to the pen during seasons because the Dodgers had Buehler, May, Urias, etc. come up through their system, not because he wasn't starter quality or they were signing a bunch of big name free agents. The Yankees haven't won a title in forever (by their standards) because they've failed to produce minor league talent (especially pitching). Minor league development is the life blood of every organization. If you can develop you can succeed. If you can't you become the Pirates. If you can't develop, but you can spend, you become the current iteration of the Yankees. So if this FO has fixed the development problems of the previous regime (yet to be seen, but I have faith in the pitching program at least) then they have a chance to get the Twins over the hump and get that long awaited W in the playoffs. If they can't provide a steady stream of ML caliber youngsters they may be the proverbial blind squirrel and snag a random playoff W somewhere, but the failures will continue. Any, and every, discussion about any FO comes down to whether or not they develop the right systems, hire the right coaches, and acquire the right young talent to move up through their systems and provide them with value over their contract amounts. I think this FO has 2 years (maybe only 1 if all their arms totally flop this year) to show they've modernized the organization and can now develop talent. We'll see.

The only risk I see with the Buxton deal is that the Pohlads make the FO treat the incentives as the base and they lower total payroll to ensure if he hits his incentives they never go over their payroll/revenue predictions. Other than that I agree with those saying he's no more at risk to a career ending injury than any other player. Certainly seems to find ways to make his way to the IL a couple times a year, but he always comes back. And he's shown he'll adjust to attempt to lower his injury risk. And the comparison to Hunter is ok, but not great. Hunter moved to the corner cuz he couldn't run anymore. But he was never a burner to start. Buxton has Hunter's reads, but an extra gear of speed. Even if Buxton loses 5 steps he's still got those reads and he's then a Hunter, or Cain, type CFer who's still very good, but not "best defender in the game" good. This deal was perfect.

I guess my question to all of this is would people be happy, and say the FO was successful, if they come out of the lockout and sign Pineda and Duffy? Those are two mid-tier pitchers still available. Is the complaint simply that they didn't do this before the lockout? If 2 mid-tier arms is all people are wanting I don't get why I've read hundreds of "fire Falvine!" or "the FO failed!" or similar posts over the last month. 2 mid-tier arms are easily found still. Is this just a "they didn't do it fast enough" complaint?

Rosenthal said he's still with Fox and The Athletic. I'd expect a journalist with his reputation around the game would have no problem continuing to find work. The question with Fox is whether or not they want to piss off MLB (if the reasoning for this really is Manfred/MLB being mad at Rosenthal) by continuing to employee Rosenthal and have him involved in the biggest moments/events of the MLB season. I'd like to think this was just MLB changing things up, and not them getting rid of someone "speaking truth to power," but it's weird to me cuz Rosenthal is one of the best in the biz. Love his work.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see both Canterino and Winder make multiple trips back and forth between the big club and the minors this year. I think there's a real strong chance the Twins use a number of rookies as piggy-back starters throughout the year to both limit their innings and service time (who knows what the service time rules will be in the new CBA, though). I think they shuttle a number of them back and forth until some of them (hopefully) start to establish themselves and can claim a few more innings. 40-man management will be really interesting to watch this year.

There's always arms available if you're willing to pay. But to me this all comes down to the prospects developing. If they don't develop any arms in 22 then the situation is the same in 23 and Montas still isn't enough to help anything (I don't think failed development in 22 would lead the FO to suddenly start spending on FA arms). I think they need to take 22 and see what arms develop and are legit ML talents. Don't risk trading away the 1 or 2 guys who turn out and being stuck with 1 veteran guy on a 1 year deal. If they can't develop pitching they're screwed no matter what. I say keep the kids and see what you have in them and fill in around that for 23.

The opposite side of that is the Twins did trade Gil and Ynoa and are absolutely crushed for it on these boards daily. The difference now is the Twins have a 21st century development program now. It all comes down to being able to develop their own arms. Previous regime and their system couldn't do it. If this regime can't do it either none of it matters as they couldn't sustain success trading for guys with 1 or 2 years of control and then having to pay everyone. I think we're at the point where we just need to see if their new development plans work. Only way to do that is keep their prospects, especially their best ones, and see if they're any good.

Gleeman is pretty well connected and he's reported multiple times that the Twins were entirely set to trade Buxton to the Phillies at the deadline if the Phillies had a premium prospect they could've added. He's also reported they were entirely set on trading him during the offseason, but Buxton came to them to get the deal done. I think it's more than believable that they had no plans to extend Buxton after talks broke down at the deadline. As long as he was still on their roster they had the chance to extend him, but I don't think they had any plans to until he pushed the issue. Then Levine got creative and they figured things out. Of course they aren't out there polling fans on street corners, but you think they don't have a finger on the pulse of the fanbase? You don't think the Pohlads saw the number of season ticket holders dropping, and the constant complaints from the fan base about trading both Berrios and Buxton in the span of 1 season? It's pretty widely accepted the Pohlads forced the Mauer deal since they didn't think the PR hit would be worth the saved money. The voice (well pocket books really) of the fans absolutely plays a role in FO decisions. They have interns who check out message boards, twitter, etc.. Their season ticket reps email and call ticket holders all the time to see what they're feeling. They host season ticket holder Q & As with the FO so fans can give feedback. It's a business and they're not in the business of alienating their customers. So maybe it was just that Buxton came to them, or maybe it was the fan pressure, but every report I've seen is that the Twins were entirely set on moving on from Buxton and done with the extension talks. More than possible that those reports are wrong, or I missed other reports. But I think it's more than reasonable to think they had moved on from extension talks just like they said they had at the deadline.

Very few teams are as cutthroat as the Rays are. That's why people bring up how it's bad for the sport. The A's have been doing similar things for far longer, but haven't seen quite the same success. Still successful, though. But most teams listen to their fan bases and don't trade guys sometimes (only reason Buxton is still in a Twins' uni). It hasn't been replicated cuz even teams like the Indians/Guardians who try to replicate it hold onto guys like Kluber and Lindor for slightly too long and don't get the elite prospect returns Tampa has. Tampa is ruthless. They'll trade anyone at anytime. Few owners or front offices have the stomach for that.

As someone who follows the majors and minors as a whole I'm all for the Twins being more "Rays-esque." But there's also some bad PR stuff in moving on from your best players so frequently. For fans who don't follow the league as a whole it is understandably frustrating to have so much roster turnover and I'm sure hurts their bottom line to some extent. But if we're just talking running a baseball team that's trying to win, then, yes, I want the Twins to follow the Ray's blueprint, but spend more money. Very broadly speaking the Rays have gotten very good at not losing good players for nothing. They extend who they can early and for cheap while trading others with more than a year or 2 of service to maximize their return when they know they can't (won't?) extend that player and they have a replacement or 2 ready. They've gotten very good at developing players and that's the lifeline of every organization. They'll trade prospects when needed, but since they've built such a deep minor league system, and trade for so many prospects, they are able to keep their pipeline moving. The Dodgers took Andrew Friedman from the Rays and he's built (on paper) a monster of an organization. The Dodgers are built on homegrown guys that they continue to replenish while also being able to spend the most in the game. (On another note...this is what will kill the game, the rich guys have started stealing the smart guys and the money difference is really going to matter moving forward) The Twins are building a really solid minor league system. They capitalized on a down year by moving Berrios for maximum return and got a ton for half a season of Cruz. Continue making those types of moves while also extending guys (my complaint is they were set on trading Buxton as well until fans made it real clear they'd revolt if they did) and bringing in FAs like Tampa can't (won't?) and you're in a great spot. That's why I'm against the idea of trading prospects at this time for 1 or 2 year pitchers that won't reasonably put the Twins over the top in 2022 (or 2023). The Twins have finally started to put together a pipeline of prospects and they should be keeping them to have replacements on hand and bringing in some FAs to fill in. I think this is the general plan the Twins current FO are trying to implement. The question is have they built the systems to develop guys the way they need. I think they screw up drafting so many corner, bat first guys who have only 1 way to impact a game. Tampa is loaded with up the middle talent that they then move to corners if needed. I'll always prefer a flier on a Cavaco type prospect than a Sabato type guy. There's some things the Twins do that I don't understand, but I think they're putting together an organization than can provide sustained success. Now we just need to see the results.

Right next to yours in the land of nowhere, I guess. Name 5 pro-athletes who had their careers ended in the last 5 years from ACL tears. I'm sorry I don't care about surgical techniques from 1975 that included sewing the ACL back together and not complete replacements that they do now. A simple google search will lead you to hundreds of Dr's and medical organization's websites that speak about how an ACL tear is no longer a career ending injury. I appreciate the work that went into digging that paper up, but it's not data that supports an argument against my statement that ACL tears are no longer career enders because we've advanced in science and technology. Sorry.

Wes Johnson has been here 3 seasons. His staffs ranked 4th, 3rd, and 24th (according to the OP). What does "we had a weak rotation that succeeded because of a short season" even mean? They pitched better than all but 2 staffs, but it was only because they were given the bonus of pitching a short season unlike every other team? Your complaint seems to be they don't have big name, big money guys so they can't be good. But the stats show they've been good for more than they haven't since Wes arrived. And had been improving since the day Falvey took over until last year completely fell apart. Can we please stop with these false narratives of the Twins having been carried by homeruns and the offense while the pitching staff was awful? The pitching staff has more than held their own until last year. Definitely rag on the FO and coaching and pitchers for 2021. They deserve it. Utter failure of a season. But everybody needs to quit changing history to fit their narratives. The Twins had the 2nd most pitching WAR in all of baseball in 2019 and 2020 combined. If that doesn't earn them the title of "strong rotation" I don't know what will. Have to be first or the rotation isn't strong? Weird logic there.

That study looks at data going back to 1975. If you don't think the "return to sport" numbers have improved in 50 years I don't know what to tell you. So not only are there college level players who may have been seniors, but it's pulling from data so old as to be almost completely useless, plus older pro players who may have been at the end of their careers anyways. That analysis does nothing for me, sorry.

I don't get how you think 3 seconds is realistic, let alone conservative. Do you watch games on TV? They have instant ball strike calls there so I'm not sure why it'd take 3 seconds to get the information to the ump. Count 3 seconds out loud. It's a long time (relatively speaking). As Brock pointed out, there are way more complicated technological events happening instantaneously in our world already. It's not even a 3 second delay when I video chat with friends on the other side of the planet. Yes, the homeplate umpire will need to make judgement calls still. Not sure what that has to do with anything. Just because something isn't the biggest issue doesn't mean it shouldn't be addressed. We have the technology, and have been testing it already, so why would we say "no, don't address this challenge because lack of balls in play is a bigger concern?" We have the ability to have a more accurate strikezone without adding any extra time to the game so why wouldn't we do it?

I honestly have no idea. I don't know that I'd be very surprised if the budget ends up being 130 or if it ends up being 100. I think the Ray rumors suggest they're still looking/willing to spend. Not sure if I believe they were caught off guard by the quick signings before the lockout or if I think they weren't planning to spend. I think either option is just as likely as the other. Neither makes me happy, though.

I'm all for this idea. I've said it on these boards too much already, but Story has been my #1 target all along. All Stars at SS, 2B, and CF is a real good place to start. I'd keep Kepler and put Bryant (or Conforto to balance the lefty righty situation a little more) in LF to start with Arraez keeping his "utility" man role as we know JD will need days off at 3B and I don't trust Sano to not have a month stretch where he's basically unplayable. Bryant-Buxton-Kepler, JD-Story-Polanco-Kirilloff is a really good defense and would help the young arms acclimate. The idea of the Twins building a "real" major league pitching staff for 2022 at this point seems far too unrealistic to me. With Donaldson and Sano coming off the books soon I love the idea of locking in this sort of offense for the next 4+ years and not having future offseasons where it's SP AND SS AND LF that need to be addressed. Get 1 "side of the ball" squared away so really it's just building the pitching staff (hopefully the pipeline plays a huge role there) you have to worry about moving forward for the next handful of years. I'm all in on this idea.

I think everyone expects MLB to go to robo calls for balls and strikes sometime relatively soon. Will be interesting to see how that changes the evaluation, and training, of catchers. Will we see more bat first guys behind the plate? Guys who don't have the feet or hands to play 3B, but have the arm, move behind the dish and learn to just block pitches since receiving is no longer important? Will be interesting to see how it changes the catcher position moving forward. If I were a major league team I'd be looking to bring in some bat first youngsters now and get a jump on things.

Why would it take 3 extra seconds to make a ball/strike call? The robot umps that have been tested and that the league is looking at putting in place have immediate results and the ump gives the call just as quick as they do now.

They have 4 SPs in the Fangraphs Top 100...

For what it's worth they have 4 in the Fangraphs top 100. Balazovic (44), Duran (81), SWR (85) and Canterino (97).

To be fair that CBS list is a fantasy baseball list. Not sure that's something anyone should really care about when it comes to the Twins winning games. I agree it'd be nicer to see more Twins arms appear on prospect lists, though. But the general thought around Twins Territory is that Jose Miranda is a vital, big-time prospect now and you'll notice he isn't on any of those lists. Fangraphs has Balazovic (44), Duran (81), SWR (85), and Canterino (97) in their top 100. I think that's why it's so important for teams to have a ton of pitching prospects. I'd rather have 10 dudes with 45+ future value scouting reports than 2 dudes with 55+ future value scouting reports and nobody else above a 40. I mean Gore went from the top pitching prospect in the game to not being able to throw a strike. Quantity is a huge part of pitching development. Not predicting the Twins have a bunch of aces waiting in the wings, but I like how they're setup right now.