chpettit19

Baseball reference has him at 18 big league innings at 1B. In the minors in 2008 he played 210 innings at 1B. 32 in 2009. And 14 combined in 2010 and 2011.

In a year I expect Sano to be gone and you can move Donaldson to fulltime DH then, but for this year I don't know why you'd move Donaldson when Miranda was playing 1B last year. According to baseball reference JD has started 1 game in his entire major league career (popped over there in the middle of a game a couple other times). Don't know why you'd move him for a guy that isn't an upgrade at 3B and who played 1B plenty just last year. And I'm not sure 1B is much of a wear and tear saver from 3B. He still has cut duties, has to run to the bag every ground ball, has to bounce off the bag on the pitch when holding a guy on first, has to trail runners to second on doubles, and still has to field grounders. Not sure where the big saving of his legs comes in with a shift across the diamond. I think we're likely to see Kirilloff and Miranda moved around a bit (when Miranda is in the bigs, no guarantee he's even in Minneapolis the whole year), and Sano and JD will split time at DH. Sano has been pretty clear in the past that he isn't comfortable as a DH and wants to play in the field to keep him in the rhythm of the game. It then comes down to balancing how much being in the field improves his hitting compared to how much his defense hurts the team. I'm guessing JD sees plenty of DH starts this year which would allow Arraez and Miranda to get plenty of 3B starts.

Why not put Miranda at 1B? Donaldson isn't the defender he used to be, but I'd think he's still better than Miranda.

It's hard to argue Sano cares much about base hits, but he was #30 in all of baseball in walk rate last year (among qualified hitters). He's a very patient hitter and takes a ton of walks.

Is this a moment we should mark in history? Somebody on the internet conceding a point to a stranger? Feels far to civil. You didn't even call me a name or anything!

Just an FYI, but Knebel signed with Philly for 1 year and $10M.

Pick a plan/direction and attack it. Push their chips in on a plan. That's what I'd like to see. I didn't dislike the plan/approach to last offseason. It obviously didn't work out, but I could, and can, see the logic in the approach and what they were trying to do. This offseason needs to have a different plan, though, and, based on the rumors out there, I don't see what the thought process even is. There are very few reports of them being in on any real FAs. If they really have no plans to bring in any real FAs I don't want to see them make any big trades either. The pitchers available via trade are mostly on 1 or 2 year deals. I don't think anybody would make an argument that the Twins would be likely to extend any of those guys so they're really bringing in someone for 1 to 2 years depending on team performance and if they spin them for prospects after 2022. I don't see that as a useful strategy. If they're not bringing in FAs to help in 2022 it's time to go young, keep your cheap, controllable young player depth and don't give any of it up to bring in a guy who won't be enough to make the team competitive in 2022. Signing Story to a 5 or 6 year deal would be my Plan A, first move coming out of the lockout. Day 1 I'd lock him in. If they can then also afford both Rodon and Pineda then I'd be good with short term moves like bringing them in on 1 or 2 year deals and trading some real prospects for another arm. If signing Story means they can only afford Pineda types I'd be more interested in an Odo/Maeda type trade that costs 1 prospect for a controllable arm. Just don't play the middle with some halfway "compete in 2022" moves and some "building for 2023 and beyond" moves. Pick a plan and go all in on it. I'd be far more understanding of a lackluster 2022 if they've put themselves in position to spend and compete in 2023 and beyond. If they go halfway on competing in 2022 and hurt their chances to spend and compete in 2023 and beyond by doing it I'd be far less understanding.

Lucas Giolito throws his curve 3% of the time. Calling him a 4 pitch pitcher is a stretch. Frankie Montas, according to baseball savant, threw a fastball, changeup, and slider in 2022. 3 pitches. Charlie Morton threw his cutter 8% and change 5% in 2021. Technically 4 pitches, but he's a 2 pitch pitcher. Robbie Ray throws his curve and change combined a total of 9% of the time. Considering him a 4 pitch pitcher is overstating a lot. He's a 2 pitch pitcher. Chris Sale throws 3 pitches and he's considered drastically better than a #3. He's mostly a 2 pitch pitcher as well with his change used just 16% of the time. Baseball savant lists Berrios at 56% fastball, 30% curve, and only 13% on his change in 2021. He's almost a 2 pitch pitcher. I think you're drastically overstating pitch numbers. I mean if Robbie Ray throws 100 pitches in a game he's throwing his curve and change a combined 9 times. No hitter cares about those pitches.

Would I bring him back if they sign a couple veteran starters (Rodon and Pineda at the least)? I guess. Would I bring him back if they don't sign any veteran pitchers and improve the staff? No. Early on the caveat to everything this offseason was "depends what they do with Buxton," and now it's "depends what they do with the pitching." If they don't improve the staff I don't get the point of signing Simmons. If they're going with a young staff and 2022 is the start of the next wave and seeing what you have I say go all in on it. Start Palacios, Lewis, or Martin at SS. Not sure the Twins see Palacios as a great option since I don't believe they protected him in the Rule 5. Unless they knew the Rule 5 was going to get canceled (in which case why protect anyone?) I think not protecting him spoke volumes on their plans on starting him at SS next year. I don't see Simmons as a great bounce back candidate. I think he's toast with the stick. Unless he changes basically his entire approach to hitting I just don't think he can hit at all anymore. If they bring in some veteran arms and are giving it a shot at the start of the year then a veteran SS makes sense and there's nobody head and shoulders ahead of him once you get beyond Correa and Story (as far as FA go) so why not him? But if they're going young everywhere else I'd prefer they just go young at SS. Especially if the service time manipulation is figured out over the next couple months.

Why can't Lewis be this year's Akil Baddoo, but without doing it for a different team?

If the $48M is around what Falvine are looking at having available still I hope they come out of the gates hot and sign Story and Rodon. Story for 5-6 years 20-23M (25M if needed), and Rodon for 1 or 2 years at 15-20M.

Social work has a cap on what they can pay because it's almost all government funded. It also has a terrible time getting, and keeping, employees of any skill level, let alone good ones, because of that pay cap. You can do quite a bit of complaining and not be fired in that industry actually. I know because I had to keep many malcontents when I ran group homes and an ILS branch of a social work company. The counties have a union and as a result get better pay and provide a much better product. Social work is actually a great argument for unions fighting for quite a bit and bettering the overall product. We all want the game to go on. We just disagree that the owners getting their way in order to just get a deal done makes the game better and keeps it going. The complaints most of us have about how the game is going, and the decrease in popularity, are almost all on the owners and their FOs and their gaming of the system. To me it just doesn't make sense that we'd just keep letting them do their thing when it's what's ruining the game.

The 3 big name SSs that have signed have signed with the Rangers and Tigers. The Twins are set up just as well to compete as either of those 2 teams. Much better, even with Seager and Semien, than the Rangers I'd argue. I don't see Story coming off a down year, with a draft pick attached to him, and coming from Colorado as going beyond what Baez got. So maybe he gets 22 or 23 a year instead of 20, and I'd still sign him to that and in what I've proposed the Twins could still afford it. Would Story put the Twins over the top in 2022? No. But would having an All Star CFer, SS, and 2B for the next 4 plus years put the Twins in a much better spot, and be better than what the Rockies were doing with Story before? 100%

Why? Because you believe that's where his market will be?

The MiLB players are not part of the union and their salaries cannot be negotiated. That is the entire point here. You're taking away the 1 piece of minor league pay that the MLBPA can influence, the singing bonus system. You've also suggested never giving up the 6th year of team control which is another way the owners get away with paying young players very little (compared to their older peers). There's no point in discussing what the minor league pay (beyond the bonus money) should look like coming out of this CBA because this CBA cannot, and will not, have anything in it about MiLB pay. It simply won't. Bonus pool money can be negotiated because it's part of the MLB draft before the players are assigned to minor league teams where the MLBPA no longer has say in what they're paid. It's that simple. The MLBPA simply cannot negotiate a deal that forces the owners to pay minor leaguers better salaries. It's impossible. They can't do it. So at that point you're taking away large bonuses and hoping the owners will pay better for no reason at all other than they're good hearted people who want to pay players what they're worth. And I don't think anyone disagree that that is not how the owners work.

You're right. They haven't. But that's kind of the point. The MLBPA has no say in anything that has to do with the minor leaguers beyond the draft. The minor leaguers are not union members. The only thing the MLB players can do for minor leaguers is get them bonuses as draft picks. And you want to get rid of that. Not sure what you want me to try again. Be mad that the MLBPA isn't negotiating things out of their control? Seems like a weird thing to be mad at the players for.

Why do you think the owners would take the savings from not paying big bonuses and put it towards minor league salaries? Minor leaguers don't have a union. The CBA doesn't dictate minor league pay. It does dictate the MLB draft signing bonuses, though. Those bonuses are the only reason any of the minor leaguers have any money at all. The owners would pocket that money and laugh all the way to the bank.

The players are not just employees like you and me. The players are also the product. The fans are paying for the players. That's the product we're buying. I think that changes the equation quite a bit.

Steve Cohen bought the Mets for $2.475 billion. The Guggenheim Group paid $2.15 billion for the Dodgers in 2012. The Mariners were bought for $1.3 billion in 2016. Jeter and his group paid $1.2 billion for the Marlins. John Sherman and his group bought the Royals for $1 billion in 2020. I agree with the general idea of you post, but there have been multiple MLB teams purchased for over a billion.

I certainly took some liberties and exaggerated, but I strongly disagree that the machine is just too big. In the sense that the league will likely be around for all of our lifetimes, sure, but in the sense that it'll be what it is now? I don't think so. Attendance numbers have been going down for 15 years. World Series viewership has been tanking. Viewership overall is going down, and has been for years. They just lost almost an entire season to covid and saw people change their viewing habits. If they lose games this season, or come out with minor leaguers, I don't know that they ever recover. Participation in youth baseball has been declining. Now you have the superstars of the sport staying home to watch a bunch of guys the kids have never heard of? I don't think the sport recovers from any missed games, or Chief's suggestion of using minor leaguers. The level of baseball being played would be so far below what the average fan expects of major leaguers they'd lose many of the ones that they didn't lose to the greed of millionaires and billionaires right at the jump. I think the league is in real trouble of remaining even 3rd on the list of American sports leagues. Everyone involved with major league baseball wants to keep seeing their pocket books get bigger. I have real concerns that they don't understand what happens if they screw this up and their collective greed causes problems with the 2022 season. Will we still have MLB if this goes into next year or we get replacement players? Sure. Will it be a $10B a year industry? I don't think so. Baseball is dying already and at this point it appears they're trying to help the process along. This line of discussion began with Chief suggesting the owners break the union and replace them with minor leaguers if need be. My stance is that that doesn't help the owners, the players, or the fans. I think it kills the league as we know it. I also think missing games kills the league as we know it. I'm certainly not educated enough on everything to have such a strong stance, but just looking at the direction the viewership/attendance has been going and adding on top a lockout or strike going into the year and I just don't see that baseball bounces back like those involved in the negotiations seem to think it will.

Disagree. If they sign a SS for a long term deal (5 or 6 years for Story is my desire) it's not silly at all. Paying one big money for 1 year may be silly as they wouldn't be able to supplement the rotation well enough this year most likely. But adding an All Star SS for 5 or 6 years is never silly. Why would you not add talent if you can? Donaldson, Sano, Rogers, Duffey are all off the payroll soon. They'll be looking to have their young pitchers take multiple spots in the pen and rotation for the next handful of years. That means they'll open more money to spend on pitching over the next couple years and they can go after FAs then, too. If it's 2022 or bust that's 1 thing, but no FO should be operating that way. What we have now is a AAA shortstop at best. Maybe some good prospects, but definitely unproven. Their pitching is bad, but the hole at SS is gaping as well. Don't understand the argument that filling a huge need is ever silly. Unless you're sold on Lewis being as good as Story (or Correa if we're really dreaming) for the next 5 or 6 years, why is it silly to fill that hole now and not have to worry about filling that next year when they'll likely still have some pitching holes to fill, too.

Accepting a cap wasn't part of that offer, they just believed it would give the owners too much momentum in that direction and it would become inevitable.

Why aren't the minor league stadiums gigantic and full of 40,000 fans paying 60+ bucks a ticket and $12 for a beer and $8 for a hot dog? Is it because the product isn't the same? The owners absolutely want nothing to do with getting rid of roughly 1200 of the best players on the planet. I've worked in baseball for years, I've paid for MLB.tv for a decade despite living in the Twins market because I watch as many games as I can, and I've been a Twins season ticket holder. I won't watch another major league game for the rest of my life if they "broke" the union and just went to minor leaguers because their 57% share of $10B in revenue wasn't enough. If someone as diehard and dedicated to the game as I am would walk away you don't think a large chunk of the average fans would? They're already losing fans and you want them to drop the 1200 best players and think that wouldn't kill the sport? I promise you the best 1200 minor leaguers right now are not what "will constitute MLB" in the future. There's a reason minor league stadiums are a fraction of the size as major league stadiums and their prices are a fraction as big. And even with the players giving in and giving up even more of the revenue, why would I want that? Why would any fan want the billionaire owners to get more than 60% of the revenues? You think that helps with the competitive balance in baseball? I don't know how else to say it than this has nothing to do with the game of baseball. It is 100% about who gets to take home how much money. The owners aren't on your side. They never have been and never will be. They care about competitive balance as much as it increases their bottom line. And clearly that isn't much. Neither side cares about the fans. Neither side cares about the game. This is, and always will be, a fight over money and how much each side is able to pull away from the other. That is the only thing they're fighting about and none of them care about competitive balance or a fair game. Look at the constant cheating done all over the sport and realize the players don't care. Look at the tanking owners do every year and realize the owners don't care. None of them care about us, but at least the players entertain us.

Rockies hitters are certainly more complicated to evaluate, but home/road splits aren't as big of a concern these days as the challenges of hitting on the road being just as extreme as the advantages of hitting in Colorado are better understood. You'd certainly prefer as small of splits as possible, but generally speaking most guys who put up good numbers for the Rockies are expected to put up good numbers for other teams. Matt Holliday, Nolan Arenado, Larry Walker, DJ LeMahieu, etc. Superstars in Colorado tend to be at least All Stars elsewhere.

They weren't happy about it, but the comment I was replying to said the players would immediately cave to the owners once they started missing checks and the owners were using minor leaguers instead. The players don't want to miss checks, and missed games would be awful, but the players aren't going to cave because they miss checks.