chpettit19

My question when it comes to the small ball, "manufacture runs" stuff is who do you want them doing these things with? Especially the steals. Who in the lineup yesterday should've been stealing bases? Gordon was 0-4, Taylor 0-4, Castro 0-3. Those are the only guys you have that would have any chance of being successful stealing a base. Then when it comes to bunting, I assume the idea is to bunt guys from first to second since they had no extra base hits. So now you're giving up a an out to get a guy who isn't fast enough to score from second on a single to second base where you still need 2 hits to just get him in in a game where you had 4 total hits. You have to have the guys to do those things. They have very few people who can steal bases. They have a lot of swing and miss in the lineup so doing a hit and run is quite risky because if they swing and miss with these runners it's an automatic out. Bunting a guy over is just giving up an out and still needing 2 hits from a team that's struggling to collect hits regularly. The Guardians and Yankees have significantly different rosters than the Twins. There's some context that needs to be taken into account when it comes to these strategies actually being useful for a team.

Probably not the first time someone's done that on these boards...😉

1/3 is a bit of an exaggeration, but I believe the point the other poster was trying to make was that he'd be getting $35+ million a year if he were someone who could stay healthy and perform as expected for a full season. 15 a year is less than half of what he'd have gotten on the open market if he were a healthy version of himself.

He's not exactly a "physical specimen," though, is he? He may look good with his shirt off, but he's been anything but a physical specimen. His body clearly doesn't hold up under physical stress and punishment. He's athletically gifted, but we have nearly a decade worth of proof that he's no physical specimen. His body just can't do what we all wish it could do in terms of staying healthy and performing. I think that's the disconnect on some of this. The idea that Buxton should be treated like any other player doesn't make sense to me. We've done that. He very clearly can't hold up to 100+ games in CF. Just throwing him out there and expecting him to randomly stay healthy this time seems like it'd be a terrible idea to me.

Again, it's not just Gallo alone. It's your combination of 2 slow footed, and one awful defender. The fewest POs for any OF in baseball last year was 894 from Miami. Most was Det with 1162. MN had 1117. So that's between 5.5 and 7.2 outs per game from outfielders. That's that they actually got to. The Twins have recorded 64 POs with their OFers this year. So at 6.4 per game. Again, outs they actually got to. Playing with above average defenders in multiple spots for most of those games. So the question is what percent worse is a Larnach/Gallo/Wallner defense than a Larnach/Taylor/Kepler (or Wallner for now) defense? 10%? That's just over half an out per game that goes from an out to a double. So 1 extra double every other game. Doesn't sound like much. Until you realize that's an extra 81 doubles a year. There were 2 teams that averaged 2 doubles a game last year. You're talking about pushing those teams up over 2.5 doubles per game and all but 7 offenses up to 2 doubles a game. So you're turning 23 offenses in baseball into the top 1% in baseball in doubles. Not sure that's "beyond unreasonable" to worry about. The outfield of Larnach/Gallo/Wallner would be an absolute disaster. Extra base hits matter. It's literally what every team is working to accomplish in as many ABs as possible. You cannot play those 3 players together and think it wouldn't matter when you wouldn't really be upgrading the offense in any significant way. There's no mixture of players currently available to them that is going to significantly rebalance their runs allowed vs runs scored chances right now. If Buxton is DHing, and Lewis is still on the IL, this team has a significant problem. Switching out Taylor for another hitter you don't like, who would also be terrible defensively, seems far more unreasonable as an answer than any of the stat supported thoughts I've thrown out.

Joey Gallo currently has a sprint speed in the 32nd percentile. For reference, Sano had a sprint speed in the 34th percentile last year. Sano's was in the 39th percentile in 2021. MAT is in the 83rd percentile. Gallo hasn't been a capable CFer since 2018. He was terrible there in 2019 and has played 7 innings there since. He is not a CFer. Like there's absolutely nothing about who he is as a player that suggests he can play CF anymore. Nothing at all. No team trying to win baseball games would put him in CF. It's not about "messing up." I'm not expecting him to drop balls he gets to. But, like I said, when an OFer can't get to a ball it usually means extra bases. So when you put Gallo and his "slower than Sano" self in CF, with 47th percentile Larnach in LF, and "judges a ball as well as Sano" Wallner in RF you're turning a lot of outs into doubles. Handing out extra base hits while pairing that with your desire to have Julien and Miranda in the IF booting balls is a recipe for disaster. The current team will give up 3 or 4 runs most games. They'll score 2 or 3 most games. Not ideal. The team you're asking for would give up 4 or 5 runs a game while scoring 3 or 4. You haven't solved the "score more than you give up" problem. And the team you're asking for makes it so the starters aren't going as deep in games because the defense is allowing more hits, and putting more guys in scoring position, which means they're throwing more, higher leverage pitches and being pulled earlier so now the team is relying on their worse pitchers in the bullpen more. Putting Julien at 2B and Castro in AAA makes sense to me. I'm not really sure why they haven't done that. My guess would be that they want to give Gordon more than 10 games before they write him off. But Gallo in CF isn't helping this team win more games.

I've never understood the "obviously us fans who have no actual health info on Buxton know best how to use him!" argument. Bunting, stealing bases, lineup construction, pitcher usage, etc. make sense to me for us to debate since we have information and can make educated arguments. This idea that the Twins are mismanaging Buxton sure looks like it's just fans frustrated and turning that into the Twins being wrong. And I get it. It sucks to have him DHing. But this isn't just Rocco or Falvine saying "I'm no Dr, but I'm pretty sure this is how we'll save Buxton from getting hurt." The Drs and trainers are giving them their best, well educated, advice on how to manage him to get the most games/ABs out of him. Crazy to me that fans with no real info think they know for sure that they're doing it wrong. It's ok to just say "this sucks, and I wish he was in CF everyday and this freaking team could stay even a little healthy" without having to say the team is screwing it all up.

Why do you think this is a Rocco driven decision? I'd put a large sum of money that the FO has more input on Buxton's usage than Rocco, and the FO is making their decisions from advice from the training staff and Drs. I find it hard to believe Rocco is deciding he knows best how to manage Buxton's usage as it relates to his health and is just deciding to sit him because he thinks that'll save Buxton while the Drs and trainers are telling him he can play Buxton full bore with no issues.

Gallo would be a disaster in CF fulltime. An absolute disaster. The problem with OFers not getting to balls is that they turn into extra base hits while booted balls in the infield turn into singles. Larnach is a solid fielder, but has very little range. Wallner is an awful defender with no range. Gallo is a good defender, but nowhere near the range you need in CF. They'd be turning outs into extra base hits regularly. And when the offense still wouldn't be that good you'd be losing the exchange of offense for defense. You can't just look at them each individually. That combination of players would be horrid out there. They wouldn't take away a single hit while giving up extra extra base hits regularly. You simply can't survive that unless they're hitting at an elite level. And they wouldn't be. I'm confused by the idea that you don't think Gallo and Wallner are good hitters, but you want them in the lineup to improve the offense, and thus win more games. There's really no debate that the defense would be significantly worse with them out there together, but you also don't think they'd do much to improve the offense. I'm confused by that. Julien is an interesting argument. I don't know what you do defensively to get him in the lineup. Put him at 2B and sit Farmer? Solano has been one of their better hitters so I don't think sitting him would be the move. Buxton is going to DH whether we like it or not and you can't sit him. Julien at 2B for Gordon/Farmer is probably the move to make, but they don't seem ready to give up on Gordon yet. But, to me, the season long answer is Polanco back, Correa getting on track, Kirilloff back, and Buxton in CF. Without those things happening there's no obvious answer to improving the team overall by mixing and matching guys who should be in the bottom of the order or on the bench.

Gallo is an emergency use in CF only player now. Especially if you flank him with Larnach and Wallner. I mean I'm pretty sure we could put together a team of 3 TD users and beat those 3 in a relay race. That'd be an absolutely horrific defensive outfield. Then both Julien and Miranda in the IF and you're talking Chicago-esque fielding. The Astros were the worst defensive team in baseball last year? I don't think that's accurate. Fielding bible had them tied for 4th best. Fangraphs also had them 4th best. Baseball reference had them...you guessed it, 4th! Chicago was the worst defense in baseball last year. And didn't make the playoffs. Yeah, they built this team around pitching and defense with hopefully just enough offense. It was a risky move. Trading in the defense for an offense that still wouldn't be top 10 wouldn't, in my opinion, win them more games. You're asking them to go to a White Sox level defense while also acknowledging the White Sox handed them 2 free runs yesterday. If they're giving out free runs they not only need their lineup to make up the runs you're asking now, but also all the free ones they'd give up. Gallo, Wallner, and Julien (3 guys you're asking to "save" the offense) would combine for 500+ Ks if they were everyday guys the rest of this year. I fully agree that this current lineup isn't good enough. But completely destroying the defense for an offense that wouldn't be top 10 wouldn't fix the problem. They need Buxton in CF, Polanco at 2B, and Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis to be the players they expect as soon as possible. There's not enough offense to make up for the defense by simply swapping out their fielders for their better hitters. Their better hitters aren't good enough.

Offense is more important than defense, but not by this much. That lineup could be the worst defensive team in baseball.

Better athleticism. They throw the ball harder. Hit the ball harder. Run faster. Athletes in every sport run faster and jump higher. It's the progression of athletics. They're trying to max out the human body. If you're happy with just regular people playing baseball the way you like it to be played there's a whole bunch of high school and town ball teams across MN every spring and summer you're able to go watch for free. But you pay for the product because you want the best. The best means pushing the limits, and sometimes that means the body can't hold up.

Performance. Guys perform better now than ever before. Which is kind of the goal. Like it's why you want their best players out there.

You want Correa out there even though he can't physically play baseball today? That'd make you happy? Seems like a weird request to me.

What more would you like them to say? "Byron Buxton's body can't hold up for 162 games, he's eternally hurt, and his body needs more rest whether whiny fans like it or not." There's your statement. You're the one constantly complaining about "the obvious." It's obvious. We've all know the situation for literally years. You want them to keep talking about it? Gallo has a side that's acting up, and Correa has a back issue. They've announced these things. You need to know their treatment plan so you can put your MD to work and decide if they have the right treatment plan? Come on. Do we think the Twins organization doesn't want Buxton in CF, Correa at SS, and Gallo in a cOF spot? They aren't doing whatever they can to win as many games as possible? What is the complaint? The ones with highly paid medical professionals and trainers, and the actual player medical data know less than the TD posters who have the perfect plan that would keep players in the lineup? How about fans just relax in the second week of the season? News flash, players get hurt and sports teams in all the major sports leagues have a far better understanding of the science behind the human body so they've changed how they use their athletes. It's time to accept it.

That is baseballsavant.mlb.com. If you're into data that's a great resource.

*First home divisional series

Make it through April a game or 3 above .500 and you're doing just fine. Actually, be a game or 2 above .500 in every month and you're doing just fine. Baseball is 6 months long. 2 games above .500 each month means you're 12 games above .500 at the end of the year. 93 wins gets you into the playoffs every year. If the Twins can take 5 of 7 from the Nats and Royals later in the month they're at 9 wins. If they can end the month 16-13 they're in great shape. That means they need to go (assuming the 5-2 record against Nats and Royals) 7-9 against the Astros, Yanks, and both Sox. Even 6-10 against those guys leaves them above .500 for the month and in fine shape. 7-9 should be more than doable. Shoot, 8-8 should be more than doable. Just have to play .500ish ball against the big boys.

16 days is the number they need to be off the ML roster to gain an extra year. Doesn't have to be the first 16 days, just any 16 days over the course of the season. Like @Greggory Masterson said, though, I'm not sure they're overly worried about that with soon-to-be 24 year old Julien. I think their bigger concern with him is simply getting him everyday ABs (and reps in the field), and there's no room for that in Minneapolis, especially if Buxton is DHing a bunch. If Kepler is going to be out for a week it'd be a reasonable move, though. I think he's expected back today, though.

I feel personally attacked! I love my in depth tours of golf courses. How am I supposed to get ticks, and poison ivy, if I'm not trudging through the woods every other hole?

No. Gallo is much more of an emergency CFer at this point of his career. Gordon in CF and Gallo at 1B would be the better defensive alignment.

Maybe because Miller is 20 and Sabato is 23 🤷‍♂️

Not suggesting Castro is some great player or anything, but he's played 735 major league innings in the OF before this year. That's about 20 less than Garlick and Wallner combined. Castro is an OFer.

A lefty got the righty out. The idea behind "a lefty facing a righty" is the "percentages." The reason you look for platoon splits is literally the percentages. So when someone doesn't have platoon splits you stop caring about the percentages as it's no longer an advantage. You being, apparently, unaware that Cooper was the better hitter doesn't make it the wrong decision, or "not smart." Walking the bases loaded to get the better hitter to the plate with 2 outs (because a double play doesn't matter) is never the smarter move. They attacked the right hitter, just lost this time. And guess what...it's going to happen again! Welcome to sports.

Fine, use 3 relievers. But Cooper is the better hitter. What is the logic in loading the bases to face the better hitter? And, fine, bring in a righty reliever. Cooper has an .805 OPS against lefties. But his OPS against righties is .784. The pitcher being a righty makes negligible difference with him. So now you've loaded the bases to face the superior hitter and are bringing in a 3rd reliever who has to be on top of his game with no wiggle room. Failing to see why they'd walk Soler in this situation. Unless we're just using hindsight because of what happened. Pitching to Soler was a pretty defensible decision.