chpettit19

Yeah, I don't know if it's the issue or not, but I know that was their plan so it's a possibility. Mostly just trying to hold out hope that the kid can turn a corner.

Took me 21 days, but I got my 1 for the month.

There's a pretty bold take. I don't know that I'd argue super hard against it. It sort of feels like a Buxton situation to me and the best thing Martin can do for himself is just tune everyone out and build his swing the way he wants. That's all assuming his fall from grace is largely driven by the Twins trying to turn him into a power hitter and the swing/approach changes are driving his inability to hit for average now. I feel like the talent is still there to be a right handed Arraez-lite with speed. If he can be a .300 hitter who steals some bags and plays really nice defense in left I'd be quite happy. But he sure looks lost right now. I also think they need to put him in left and just let him be. You traded for his bat, not his glove. There was nothing hurt in seeing if he could stick at SS, but that possibility has passed and it's time to let him settle into a spot and focus on his bat. Put him in left and let him focus on getting his bat right.

It's your list, my friend, you can put him wherever you want! I'd pretty staunchly argue Lee being ahead of him, but I wouldn't put up much of a fight about how anyone orders guys behind Lewis and Lee.

Winder was 25 when he debuted, for what it's worth. To me it's splitting hairs with a lot of this stuff when it comes to ranking lists (it's why I'm not a big fan of ranking lists). I prefer groupings/tiers. I'd have my grouping of "Untouchables" that either position players or pitchers can be in. Then I'd break down my pitchers and position players into different groups with many factors instead of listing everyone together in a list. The difference between a pitcher ranked 8th and 12th in a system is basically nothing most of the time. They're likely both middle to back end of the rotation type arms and it's just a question of which one can put it all together. So to me the Twins have 2 guys with All Star upside in the system (Lewis and Lee) and then it's just a jumble of guys with similar likely ceilings.

Then I guess it's a good thing Miranda is a long term 3B and not 1B. He's got 1 OAA at 3B compared to -2 at 1B. Glad he's targeted to play 3B.

FYI Lewis (59), Winder (69), Rodriguez (85), and Steer (100) made Baseball America's updated top 100.

I'm more of a tiers guy so I'd just say Lewis and Lee are tier 1 guys while the other 3 are tier 2 guys for varying reasons while each have legit paths to jumping into tier 1 (back into tier 1 in Martin's case).

Do they think anyone from the Povich, Prielipp, Hajjar, Balazovic, Canterino, Varland, Henriquez, et al group of prospects will be ready by 2024? Do they think SWR or Winder are significantly better than any of those guys? I'd say they better have at least 1 of those arms ready by 2024 whether they keep Winder and SWR or not, and I don't think SWR or Winder are any more likely than that grouping to be front of the rotation arms. Unless they have a reason to believe Castillo is any more likely to get injured than any other pitcher or his performance will drop off dramatically in the next year and a half I do that trade. Give me Castillo, Ryan, Gray for the rest of this year and add Maeda back next year all on below market deals and I can build a pretty competitive rotation.

It's the same discussion we go round and round on every game thread and recap. Some people like the strategy, some don't. Someone will inevitably complain that Rocco has no feel for the game and needs to use his gut. Others will point out stats that show the strategy is largely successful and others will complain that if they didn't baby guys so much they'd be better and able to last longer. Others will point out that there's far too many variables that go into these decisions to whittle it down to 1 variable and say it's always just a 3rd time through decision. Somebody is going to say their numbers are so high because they're facing the top of the order on the 3rd time through so it's skewed. I just wanted to get the gut comment out of the way before we dive into the rest of the back and forth.

But what does your gut say about it?

How hard guys have hit his fastball and the shape of his off speed were the concerns he listed. And for reference he had Winder ranked 8th in the system coming into the year and said he'd have been in his top 100 were it not for his injury last year. So his concerns are based on what he's seen at the major league level this season.

Law gave it a "Maybe?" response, and listed his concerns about Winder not sticking as a starter so the package would actually be too light. The bigger thing I got from that article is that other teams can put together far better packages than the Twins without touching their #1 prospects (although the Padres suggestion included Hassell). The Twins don't have great buying power in the arms race of the next 2 weeks.

The Athletic had an article today where beat writers made trade proposals for Castillo and they had Keith Law (their prospect guy) rate the package. Dan Hayes suggested the Twins could send Steer, Winder, and SWR to the Reds. Law's response was: "Maybe? I’m concerned by how hard MLB hitters hit Winder’s fastball this year, and what we can see about the shapes of his other pitches, which might mean I was too high on him coming into the year. If this is really two relievers plus Steer, who has made himself into a potential regular with his breakout, it’s too light."

The debate that was happening there was the timing of gathering those price tags, not that the conversations happened or how they went. My point was that they weren't calling Prielipp during the draft to ask his number, they already had it.

I'm with ya. They should've added more that year, and they need to add this year. I think the goal every year should be to have 26 playoff worthy guys on your roster after the deadline with some prospects in the wings to fill in any holes that pop up as the last 2 months play out. The Twins tend to be happy with like 12 playoff worthy guys on the roster after the deadline.

Dobnak started because Pineda cheated. Not that they didn't need to add more arms, but if we're being honest here there were some second half events that changed that team drastically going into the playoffs.

Yeah, you're combining different debates here. Nobody has said trades aren't important. In fact what a couple of us have said is that the FO deserves credit for bringing Ryan in through trade. We followed that up by saying we don't count him as part of the development pipeline since they didn't develop him. The FO should use every avenue to improve the team and system, but Ryan is not a result of their development pipeline because he was acquired as an MLB ready prospect. Duran was developed by the Twins after being acquired in trade so he should be seen as proof they can develop pitching. I'm not really sure what you're agreeing with and disagreeing with because you've combined different lines of discussion into one.

What moves do you think they can make between now and Aug 2 that makes them contenders this year? Again, I want them to make trades in the next 2 weeks. I am openly stating I think they need to make trades before the deadline to improve. I'm not arguing that point. My point is they don't have the pieces to make the high impact trades people want. Unless they're taking away from the players currently on the major league roster which then just moves the hole and doesn't make the team better overall. Bringing in Castillo but shipping Miranda out doesn't make them contenders. I'm saying they don't have good enough prospects to outbid teams for the big guns people want. What they can get is expiring contract relievers, and I think they should, and will, make those moves. I'm not saying "shouldn't" I'm saying "can't." I'm saying they don't have the ability to make big moves at the deadline whether they want to or not. Keeping the SS they have now is one of the options moving forward, and I hope they find a 7 year deal to keep him here. That could be part of the 60M I mentioned. They'd still have 30M left to spend after that. I'm not at all, in any of my comments, saying they should do nothing. They need to bring in more relievers, and I think they will. They're not trading Lewis, just like the Padres wouldn't trade Abrams last year and the Yankees have refused to trade Volpe. Outside of Lewis they don't have anyone in their system that is bringing back anyone who'd be seen as a "go for it" move. Outside of bringing in relievers, my stance is they simply can't do what people are asking them to do. They don't have the top end prospects to get it done. I don't think Steer and Wallner are bringing back Castillo or Montas types. They've graduated the bulk of the current wave of prospects and seen the rest of them falter and thus lose trade value so the system doesn't have much at the top. The highest ceiling prospects the Twins have are all in A ball or below. Those types of fliers don't get the kind of return that AA and AAA high ceiling prospects do. The Twins are at the point in their cycle that their best path to improving the roster is through spending to surround the young core with veterans. I'm not saying they ignore this season to play for the future by choice, I'm saying they likely have to do it by necessity. The Mets have built through offseason trades and big spending on FAs. They're not a great example for the type of moves you're asking for. They did trade for Baez last year by giving up a prospect in the range I'm saying the Twins don't have (worse than Lewis, better than Steer/Wallner). But otherwise I don't see the connection here unless you're holding out hope the Pohlads suddenly start spending like Cohen. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath on that one.

My argument is that bringing in a guy who almost immediately joins your big league staff isn't a sustainable "pipeline" model. They're 2 very different things to me. The pipeline we all talk about is being able to take non-MLB ready players, typically at AA or below, and turn them into MLB ready players. That's the sustainable model we all want. Trading Hall of Fame DHs for already MLB ready pitchers is not a pipeline model, and not what Cleveland, the Rays, the Dodgers, or whoever people want to point to as enviable pitching situations do. So the FO deserves credit for acquiring Ryan, but if their plan is to continually trade rental bats at the deadline for MLB ready arms I think they're in trouble.

I would make trades before the deadline. I'm not at all suggesting they shouldn't. I'm suggesting they don't have the ammunition to pull off the kinds of deals people want without taking away from the current players on the roster and thus not really improving the team overall. Trading Miranda plus prospects for Castillo doesn't get them closer to NY and Houston this year or next year. But Steer and Wallner aren't enough to get Castillo. That's what I'm saying as far as making trades to improve this year's team goes. I agree the window is currently part way open. I don't think they can make significant moves to open it dramatically more in the next 2 weeks. I do think they can do that over the offseason because a team built largely off players in pre-arb seasons is very easy to supplement with just dollars. And they'll have a lot of dollars to spend to supplement. Now if you don't think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, and Kirilloff is a good base to build from you'd disagree with me, and that's fine. If you don't think Larnach, Kepler, Jeffers, Celestino, and Gordon are worthy of roster spots on a playoff team you'd disagree with me. But I think if you have those 10 guys you're in a good starting spot. I think if you have 6 of those guys on pre-arb deals while the other 4 are making less than they'd get on the open market (Kepler could be debated) you're in a great spot. I think a rotation built around Maeda, Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Winder is in a great starting spot. Especially because the first 2 are under market contracts and the other 3 are pre-arb. You can buy a front end starter with the extra money there. I think Duran, Jax, and Alcala are 3 good pen arms and you can buy 2 more really good ones and 3 more decent ones with the savings from all 3 being pre-arb or arb. I see a SS, a catcher, a #1 starter, and 5 pen arms that need to be added to this team moving forward. I think a catcher, a #1 starter, and 2 pen arms need to be added to this team for this year. I don't think they have the prospects to add those pieces this year, but I think they're capable of adding the pieces for next year and beyond. I would be willing to trade prospects to improve the team this year and expect them to bring in some relievers. I just don't think they have what it takes to get a Castillo type or a catcher upgrade even though they should be calling teams about those spots.

I didn't include Ryan since he was a trade acquisition last year and not a product of their system. They certainly deserve credit for bringing him in, but their pipeline didn't develop him. To me the question is whether or not they can develop a guy through the system, and I think Duran, Ober, Winder, et al show they can.

The injuries are obviously concerning, but he's still very young and showed he's ready to compete at the major league level now. I wouldn't trade someone with superstar upside and ready for the majors who's not even close to arbitration eligible. Immediate solution is Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Paddack under contract for multiple more seasons. Miranda, Kirilloff, Lewis, Jeffers, Arraez, Celestino, Gordon, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Jax, Moran, Alcala, Larnach under team control for multiple seasons of pre-arb and arb. Maeda and Gray under contract for next year. That's 21 players under contract for next year, and, in 19 cases, more seasons than just 2023 for cheap. That's a pretty enviable situation to be in with probably 60M to spend on the market next year. If they can't get 5 guys to fill out that roster and make it a contender for 60M they should contract the team. The lower minors look to have a number of intriguing pieces. Wallner and Steer look like major leaguers. Brooks Lee has a shot to debut in the next 2 years. Prielipp could be a top of the rotation guy relatively soon. The system is not dead, but they've graduated most of this wave of prospects. They now have to fill in around them with veteran guys through trades (which I'd argue is difficult due to the wave mostly being key parts of the current team) and FA signings. The future is bright in MN, but the pieces aren't all there. They need to supplement this team without blowing up the very strong core.

The biggest problem the Twins have is the top of their pitching prospect list taking a nose dive this year. If those guys were performing well enough to be pieces in a trade for frontline starting pitching the Twins staff wouldn't be so bad because they'd already be on it. Canterino getting hurt again, Balazovic forgetting how to pitch, SWR crashing back to earth after a hot start before getting hurt, and the Sands/Strotman/Enlow types failing to take the next step has hurt the Twins in trade assets and on the big league mound. I think the FO expected at least 2 of those guys to be ready for the bigs by now and instead they got 0. All of their bigtime position player assets are already key parts of the current team (or named Royce Lewis) so you can't trade them (although, I'd move Larnach for the right arm in return) because you'd just create a different hole in the roster and not improve the team overall. Tough spot to be in here.