chpettit19

That's one heck of an assumption. You don't think players have money managers, or agents, smart enough to point out the difference in cost of living or taxes between NY and Minneapolis? You don't think the MLBPA is smart enough to figure out that the taxes are different in different states and provide their members with information on how that all works? I'd be willing to bet a whole lot of money that Carlos Correa is well aware of what amount of money he'd actually see from the 12/315 and 10/285 offers based on taxes, cost of living, agent fees, union fees, etc. I bet he's also well aware of how much more he can make in NY on promotional deals outside of his contract. Most players absolutely do look at those things, and pay a whole team of people to make sure they are making the decision they want to make.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

The international signing period starts in just over a week. Already reports that they have deals in place for 2 guys, and with over $6 million to spend they'll certainly sign more than 2. There's your "few low level lottery tickets," and they didn't even have to trade anyone!

I mean I'm willing to trade anyone if the price is right. Is the trade for a young, proven front end starter, or up the middle star, with at least 4 years of control? Sure. Is it for someone they'd need to extend in the next year or two and we know they won't pay market rate so wouldn't extend them? No. I also don't see them as all that redundant. Lee has the hands and arm to be a spare SS (I think he lacks the range to be an ideal everyday guy) until he gets to his late 20s, and I like the idea of having that extra insurance. Miranda can play both corners. And I don't see them going with a fulltime DH anytime in the near future so that gives them another spot to rotate through. I think they both have a really high likelihood of being .280 and 20 HRs type hitters and I want as many of those guys in the lineup as I can get. I don't see much of any redundancies on the infield for the Twins. And, honestly, don't really see it in the OF either. I think Kepler and Polanco are on their last legs, and Kepler may not even be on the roster come March. Gallo is a 1 year guy. Buxton is the only veteran locked up long-term. Don't trust Arraez's knees and he's a no power 1B/DH against righties only (I hate typing that cuz he's my favorite current Twin). Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Gordon, Buxton, Jeffers, Arraez, Vazquez, Wallner are 12 guys I see being here even in 2024. Maybe Polanco is the 13th position player for that year. Celestino is a AAAA guy to me. Hopefully Martin keeps the momentum from the AFL going and then he'd be the 13th guy. Or, more likely, at least 1 of those 12 doesn't succeed as we hope, and maybe Martin replaces them. Or we know there's always a need for a 14th guy to be ready in AAA cuz of Buxton's health. We can hope Rodriguez flies through the system, but I'm not betting on that (and he's an OFer so not blocked by Miranda or Lee in your question). There's always other guys who pop up seemingly out of nowhere (Steer and Julien types), but I'm not betting on that either. The rest of their prospects are either not even in the system yet (#5 pick this year) or years away (Miller, Urbina, etc.). I don't see any trades that really take this team to the next level. It's either morgaging the future with Lee, Lewis, Miranda types, or not bringing back top end talent for Kepler, Arraez, or Polanco types. It's why I'm so frustrated that they sat out free agency waiting on Correa. They have a solid floor built between veterans and the current prospect wave. What they needed was some high end talent added to supplement them. At this point I think they are who they are. And either the new prospect wave stays healthy and produces or they fail and it's time to blow it up and plan for the next wave in 3 years (and if that's the case I hope its a new FO doing the rebuild). All my thoughts on these position players is echoed for the pitchers. The current wave is here and they passed on all the top end pitchers. Bring in a Fulmer type, but otherwise it's time to sink or swim with the kids. They don't have enough depth to send a bunch away for an arm, and they don't have the big ticket prospects to get a truly front of the rotation arm anyways. Through a lot of their own doing, and some bad luck with health, they're in a spot without many options. Bad year for them to cut payroll, but here we are.

Agree Varland and SWR are the most likely starters, although it looks like Ted went with guys who hadn't debuted yet, and not just guys with rookie eligibility. Not sure why Martin, who's not on the 40-man, would be more likely than Julien, who is on the 40-man, to debut. Only versatility he provides beyond Julien is OF, but there's already 9 outfielders on the 40-man so I wouldn't expect him to get a shot over any of them. Lee is in AA already. He does anything like he did at the end of the year last year for the first 3 months of this season and there's no reason he couldn't, or shouldn't, debut halfway through 2023.

So your stance is to trade them now because they aren't good enough to get a qualifying offer, but you think another team would be willing to give up something of worth for them? Kind of seems a bit contradictory. You don't think either of them are as good, or better, than Eovaldi or Perez? Or Tyler Anderson? Don't think Sonny Gray's numbers compare to Chris Bassitt's? I'd argue (and pretty easily) that they're every bit as "elite" as those 4 guys who all received QOs after last season. I'd go compare those 4 pitchers to the guys you "never wasted a second thinking about" because they wouldn't be worth it.

Got ya. Misread what you were getting at. Not the first time and won't be the last for me doing that. My criteria for what is and what isn't acceptable this year is a little different than yours, but I certainly don't blame anyone for demanding a playoff win out of these guys. It's definitely time to start seeing some real success around these parts.

I think the idea that he could be signed for $8 million a year shoots down the idea that he's worth investing in over the guys they already have on staff. 42 year old Rich Hill just got $8 million. Corey Kluber got 10. If he's struggling to even get 8 it shows that the league doesn't think his 2022 performance is at all sustainable and he's likely the below replacement level player he'd been for years before that. He got 3 in 2020, 3 in 2021, and 7 in 2022. If he can't get to 8 after a career year he's not worth it.

FYI, they're both eligible for qualifying offers and the Twins would almost certainly extend one to each of them. In which case the Twins would be in line to receive picks immediately following the 1st round in the 2024 draft depending on a few things. So they would still be getting something for losing those 2. Picks in the top 35 of the draft are pretty valuable.

But they didn't just get draft choices back. They got 3.5 combined years of above average major league pitchers and draft picks. But that's neither here nor there in this discussion. Yes, cHawk suggested they either needed to commit to winning now or rebuilding for the future, and suggested signing Wacha helped with neither of those situations. You then suggested they didn't seem to be giving off rebuild vibes by still having Gray, Mahle, Kepler, and Polanco (and signing Gallo). You said "letting Gray and Mahle go for nothing at the end of the year after giving up what they gave up would be unforgivable and a fire able offense." Do you feel it's not acceptable for them to win the division in 2023 (maybe even a playoff game if we're lucky!) with Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (not to mention Kepler, Polanco, and Gallo that you also named) playing varying degrees of important roles and then getting up to 4 draft picks for the pitchers and Gallo and still being able to trade Kepler and Polanco after the season if young guys really step up? My read is that you think the only real option right now is to go into a rebuild. And we can just agree to disagree there if that's the case. I'd actually prefer the draft picks over more prospects that don't have places to play on the current team, but will need 40-man spots this or next year. That's based on me not believing they're going to get some near MLB ready arms that project as top of the rotation guys in return for any of those guys right now. And if they can't get prospects in return that are better than the prospects they already have, and are better than top 35 picks in 2024, then I'd much prefer keeping Gray and Mahle and giving 2023 a go. They don't need more young position players (unless they could get a top end catching or CF prospect). They've got guys setup for every position (outside of C and a Buxton replacement better than a Gordon/Celestino platoon). What they need are top end arms. I don't think they can get that for Mahle or Gray this offseason. My point is there's a talent line they can, and should, draw in return for Mahle and Gray. The Twins are holding 2 above average major league pitchers and 2 top 35 picks in their hands. So #1 they need to get a return that is worthy of 1 season of an above average major league pitcher if they're going to trade either of them. They could probably get that. Then, #2, they need to get a return that is worthy of a top 35 pick on top of that. And I don't think they can get that. And, to me, the fire-able offense would be trading Mahle and/or Gray for less than a return worthy of 1 year of their service plus a top 35 pick. Especially because, unless I'm remembering incorrectly, the team receiving them in trade would be able to put their own QO on them after the year and get the top 35 pick if they trade for them before the season. Although, I could be wrong on that and maybe that was based on the new league year start date. And where their comp pick lands depends on what team they'd trade them to. They've got their prospect wave all in the majors, or on the doorstep. They sink or swim based on Kirilloff, Miranda, Arraez, Lewis, Lee, Larnach, and all the arms. If those guys all fail they're doomed anyways. A couple more prospects for Mahle and Gray doesn't fix that. Their wave is ready, and they need them to be successful. Then they need another wave in "4 to 7 years" like you said (I read it as sarcastic). A few more prospects of the same level as the ones they have in this wave won't make up for their internal wave failing. So I'd much rather have Gray, Mahle, Polanco, Maeda, etc. on the roster for 2023 and give it a shot. Then take the draft picks, and trade Polanco, if the prospects fail. Because the next wave won't be arriving in 2024 anyways so why would they want to add to a failed wave? PS. That post got real long, so I apologize. A little excessive there.

And? Hajjar and Petty are the only 2 guys that they gave up for either of those guys that could fill a probable opening on the Twins roster in the next few years. Steer would be starting the year in AAA for the Twins next year where the Twins will instead have Julien. And somebody on the current 40-man wouldn't be there because Steer would need a spot (there's certainly a couple pitchers I'd remove for him in a vacuum). Encarnacion-Strand would probably split his year between AA and AAA next year as a no defense corner IF/DH who'd be blocked at the big league level by Miranda, Arraez, likely Lee jumps him quickly, Julien possibly, Martin possibly, and Kirilloff. I don't see Steer or CES as massive loses in your "after giving up what they gave up" statement. Unless you think they're going to be significantly better than the other 6 guys I just listed. They gave up Petty (the 26th overall pick) for 2 years of Gray and what could be pick 31 in 2024 (depending on how much he signs for with another team). "Losing him for nothing" looks an awful lot like getting 2 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher and the chance to get a similar prospect to the one they gave up. All for a kid who'd thrown 5 innings in rookie ball at the time of the trade. Hajjar was a 2nd round pick (#61 overall) who's in A+ ball at this point. So, again, "losing him for nothing" looks to me like giving up 2 hitting prospects blocked by better hitting, and fielding, prospects and/or current major leaguers, and a low level starter with upside for 1.5 years of a pretty darn good major league pitcher (granted the .5 year didn't go as hoped) and a pick that would likely be an entire round higher than where they got Hajjar.

To be fair they'd likely put a QO on both Gray and Mahle (and Gallo if he's good) at the end of the year, so they wouldn't lose them for nothing.

I agree 100% with the last paragraph. But I don't see a need for "potential veteran pitching depth" if it isn't better than the veteran pitching depth they already have. They have 3 veterans and Ryan in the rotation. If they're not bringing in someone better than Ober (and I don't see Wacha, who has his own durability issues, as being better than Ober) then I don't get the point. Is he willing to take a minor league deal with a ST invite coming off a career best season? Cuz that's the only price that seems right to me. He's not bumping anyone else out of the rotation so it's going to be hard to sell him on coming to the Twins to be a bullpen piece coming off a career year. I simply don't see the fit here. If they're looking for a 1 inning BP piece, and I think they should be, I'd much rather see Fulmer return than hope Wacha can transition to a 1 inning pen arm. Unless they can convince Wacha to be a long man in the pen, again wouldn't expect that coming off a career year, or they're going to move Ober to a long man role. And I think that'd be mismanaging Ober at this point. I just don't see a fit for this type of player. They've got a bunch of league average dudes. They need to start getting some real impact players. Only way for that this offseason is trades.

While I agree there's plenty of that sort of sentiment around these parts, I disagree that's what's happening here. Plenty of us are pointing out that Wacha doesn't have all that high of a chance of being a potentially useful player. Yes, he was good last year, but that was an extreme outlier in performance. Yes, he had 3.3 bWAR last year. He had 1.5 fWAR. Here's his bWAR/fWAR from 2016 to 2022: -.2/1.8 1.5/3.1 1.1/.8 .2/-.3 -.2/0 -.6/1.1 3.3/1.5 Here's his IP totals from 2016 to 2022: 138 165.2 84.1 126.2 34 124.2 127.1 He's no more "potentially useful" than 10 dudes they already have on the roster. Do they think they can get a near Petty level return for Gray if they decide to trade him and are looking at Wacha as a possible veteran replacement in the rotation in that case? I'd guess no, but would understand that. If not, you're replacing Ober with Wacha. That doesn't excite me at all and seems like a signing simply to say they made a signing. I'm not interested in that.

But plenty can match the -.6 in 2021, or -.2 in 2020, or .2 in 2019, or 1.1 in 2018, or 1.5 in 2017, or -.2 in 2016.

If Nick Paparesta keeps Buxton in CF for 130 games each of the next 2 seasons the Pohlads should give him an ownership stake in the team.

2020-2022 stats in the same order of Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda... Obviously Ryan and Maeda only had 2 seasons in the last 3, but that presents a very different outlook than simply showing his 1 rebound season of 2022. If you don't like counting 2020 as a season we can go back to 2019, but that makes his ERA go up to 4.56.

No, thank you.

Sounds like Twins have deals in place with Hendry Chivilli (SS, DR) and Ariel Castro (cOF, Cuba).

The simple reality of the plate being there isn't the problem. Again, everybody knew he had a plate in his leg. He's had it for over half a decade. It's not a long-term problem simply having a plate. I'd guess they were not aware of any long-term concerns about the plate before the season. There very well may not have been any long term concerns about the plate before the season. The concern about the plate now may be coming from insurance companies not being willing to insure past a certain number of years because of the plate and that wasn't a problem the Twins faced because it was only a 1-3 year deal. No, it doesn't. Not to mention Correa is a human being with the right to say "I'm fine, I don't need, or want, a whole physical with scans and MRIs and everything else because I feel fine." The Twins don't just get to tie him down and scan him whenever they want. He told them, and the media, that there was no pain and he was fine. He missed no games because of it. What reason did they have to do a bunch of scans then? They were already going to be able to do a physical if they agreed to terms with him. There was no reason to do it. Again, I'm not saying they were aware of the concerns! I'm literally arguing the opposite. It's not about the pitchers both getting hurt (news flash: every team in major league baseball has multiple pitchers get hurt every year). It's about the risk they were willing to take. People act like no other team acquires players who've been injured. Even recent injuries. Montas was on the IL in July last year with shoulder issues and these boards and Twitter and the entire internet was filled with Twins fans still begging the Twins to go get him. Literally the exact same injury concern on almost the exact same timeline and the Yankees traded for Montas. The point is that that risk is taken by every team all the time. It's not just the Twins being stupid.

Were the Twins aware that Correa had a plate in his leg prior to the season? Yes. Everyone in the baseball industry was aware of that. What does that have to do with long-term stability concerns? Did they do scans and a full workup of his ankle after he reported no pain on a slide on September 20th and they knew he'd be leaving the team in a month? No. Why in the world would the Twins have done scans of his leg after that? They knew they'd do an entirely new physical on him if they were to agree to a deal with him. They're not putting their players through unnecessary medical exams when the player isn't reporting any pain that could effect them in the current season. Who's saying the Twins weren't unware of whatever SF or NY found? I'm saying they had no reason to be looking for long-term problems before last season (they didn't have him signed long-term!), and it's entirely possible the concerns arose because of that slide, or just normal wear and tear of another season. "The Mets continue to express reservations about the long-term stability of Correa’s leg." That's a quote from Ken Rosenthal/Dan Hayes in an Athletic article. You can find thousands more like them in other articles about the Giants and Mets deals with Correa. The Mets new the Giants had concerns about his physical and still offered him their 12 year deal before doing their own deep dive. But the Twins offering a deal before getting to do their new physical is outrageous? The Yankees traded for a pitcher with the exact same "health issues" as Mahle at the deadline. The Yankees also allowed Tanaka to pitch with a partially torn UCL for years. The Dodgers couldn't even tell if Walker Buehler had torn his UCL before he went into surgery for his 2nd TJ in August after allowing him to pitch with elbow concerns for most of last year. Jacob deGrom hasn't stayed healthy for 2 years (15 starts in 2021, 11 in 2022) and just signed a 5 year deal for a boatload of money at the age of 34. Aaron Judge is a 30 year old, 6'7" player (they don't tend to hold up and age well) who's had over 500 PAs in a season twice since 2017 and just signed one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. The Yankees traded for Harrison Bader while he was on the IL. The Padres traded for Clevinger knowing he had elbow concerns, had those elbow issues flair up at the end of the 2020 season and brought him back for the playoffs anyways only to watch him undergo his 2nd TJ before then buying out his last 2 arbitration years knowing they'd only get 1 season of a guy coming off his 2nd TJ. And these are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. This idea that the Twins are just doing crazy (or are simply incompetent) things simply isn't true.

Do you agree or disagree with this timeline? Twins agree to 3 year deal with 2 player opt outs with Correa. Twins do physical before signing deal and feel there's nothing in the physical to lead them to believe he was a ticking timebomb about to explode during the 2022 MLB season. Correa slides and feels a vibration in the plate in his leg. Correa opts out after 1 season of 3 year deal like everyone thinking rationally knew he would. Twins offer Correa 10/285. Correa agrees to 13 year deal with the Giants. Correa takes new physical. Giants have hesitations. Correa agrees to 12 year deal with Mets. Mets review new physical and have concerns. Today. That's my understanding of how things have gone. And in there the Twins were looking at his physical assessing the likelihood of him being hurt during the 2022 season because they knew with 100% certainty that he was opting out unless he had some sort of major injury or completely forgot how to play baseball. I've even been generous enough to give you the 2 extra years and say they were concerned about 3 years, when we all knew from the day he signed that they had 1 year with him. I don't think it's just "worst possible light," I think it's confirmation bias with no standing in reality. We're not going to agree on this, though. So no real point in me continuing to point out the gigantic gap in years, and the entire season he played after the Twins physical that included him commenting on an uncomfortable feeling he had in the part of his body teams are now concerned about.

Now you're playing semantics. Use whatever word you want, the implications are that the Twins screwed up/ignored a problem/weren't even aware of said problem because they signed him to a 1 year deal with 2 option years. Pretending that's at all the same to signing him to a 12 or 13 year deal is nonsense. They're not at all the same thing. And who says he didn't jostle that plate (I mean he literally admitted that a slide late in the year had him nervous as he felt something in the plate) during the season and that's what the other teams are now seeing. I seriously don't understand how you don't see a difference between the next 2 years and the next 9 years. What reason do you have to believe the Mets or Giants are seeing something that at all concerns them in the next 2 seasons?

Which later years? Years 3 through 12 or 13? No. Years 10 through 12 or 13? Yeah, probably. But there's a whole lot of years between there. The point is that pointing to the Twins passing him on a physical for a 3 year deal (that everyone knew was really a 1 year deal) as them being incompetent now that other teams don't want to pay him for 12 or 13 years is ignoring a whole lot of context. Like 10 years of context. It's just confirmation bias.

Strongly disagree. You're assuming their injury concerns are for the first 1 or 2 years of 12 and 13 year deals. But to each their own.