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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    That is baseballsavant.mlb.com. If you're into data that's a great resource.
  2. chpettit19
    *First home divisional series
  3. chpettit19
    Make it through April a game or 3 above .500 and you're doing just fine. Actually, be a game or 2 above .500 in every month and you're doing just fine. Baseball is 6 months long. 2 games above .500 each month means you're 12 games above .500 at the end of the year. 93 wins gets you into the playoffs every year. If the Twins can take 5 of 7 from the Nats and Royals later in the month they're at 9 wins. If they can end the month 16-13 they're in great shape. That means they need to go (assuming the 5-2 record against Nats and Royals) 7-9 against the Astros, Yanks, and both Sox. Even 6-10 against those guys leaves them above .500 for the month and in fine shape. 7-9 should be more than doable. Shoot, 8-8 should be more than doable. Just have to play .500ish ball against the big boys.
  4. chpettit19
    16 days is the number they need to be off the ML roster to gain an extra year. Doesn't have to be the first 16 days, just any 16 days over the course of the season. Like @Greggory Masterson said, though, I'm not sure they're overly worried about that with soon-to-be 24 year old Julien. I think their bigger concern with him is simply getting him everyday ABs (and reps in the field), and there's no room for that in Minneapolis, especially if Buxton is DHing a bunch. If Kepler is going to be out for a week it'd be a reasonable move, though. I think he's expected back today, though.
  5. chpettit19
    I feel personally attacked! I love my in depth tours of golf courses. How am I supposed to get ticks, and poison ivy, if I'm not trudging through the woods every other hole?
  6. chpettit19
    Maybe because Miller is 20 and Sabato is 23 🤷‍♂️
  7. chpettit19
    Not suggesting Castro is some great player or anything, but he's played 735 major league innings in the OF before this year. That's about 20 less than Garlick and Wallner combined. Castro is an OFer.
  8. chpettit19
    A lefty got the righty out. The idea behind "a lefty facing a righty" is the "percentages." The reason you look for platoon splits is literally the percentages. So when someone doesn't have platoon splits you stop caring about the percentages as it's no longer an advantage. You being, apparently, unaware that Cooper was the better hitter doesn't make it the wrong decision, or "not smart." Walking the bases loaded to get the better hitter to the plate with 2 outs (because a double play doesn't matter) is never the smarter move. They attacked the right hitter, just lost this time. And guess what...it's going to happen again! Welcome to sports.
  9. chpettit19
    Fine, use 3 relievers. But Cooper is the better hitter. What is the logic in loading the bases to face the better hitter? And, fine, bring in a righty reliever. Cooper has an .805 OPS against lefties. But his OPS against righties is .784. The pitcher being a righty makes negligible difference with him. So now you've loaded the bases to face the superior hitter and are bringing in a 3rd reliever who has to be on top of his game with no wiggle room. Failing to see why they'd walk Soler in this situation. Unless we're just using hindsight because of what happened. Pitching to Soler was a pretty defensible decision.
  10. chpettit19
    Because it's the 6th game of the season and burning through 3 relievers an inning is probably a bit aggressive at this point of the year. And I'm pretty sure their 3 hole hitter is also one of the best hitters in their lineup. Soler hit .223 in 2021, .207 last year, and is at .217 so far this year. Let's not make him about to be something he's not. Cooper hit .284 in 2021, .261 last year, and is at .316 this year.
  11. chpettit19
    Twins are hitting .353 with runners in scoring position. 3rd in baseball. Problem is they're just a super slow team and don't score on those hits.
  12. chpettit19
    The people who were singing their praises while they were in the system and the people now saying they weren't that good and not likely to make the Twins aren't necessarily the same people.
  13. chpettit19
    Strongly disagree. The reason he wasn't protected was because he wasn't good enough to be on the 40-man. That's played out since, as you said, he hasn't been very good. It's past time where it could be a blunder at all, let alone a MAJOR blunder. Your argument for it being a blunder is basically that they should've stashed him on their 40-man for 3 years despite him not being worthy of a 40-man spot. That would be absolutely awful roster management.
  14. chpettit19
    Is the Baddoo part of this sarcasm? He was unplayable last year in the majors (65 OPS+), and didn't make the Tigers opening day roster this year. A Tigers team that everyone thinks is going to be terrible, and is looking for any infusion of talent they can find decided he wasn't good enough to be on the team. As for this trade, the chances of Steer and Strand being studs is incredibly small. Could they both be major leaguers? Of course. Could they both be major league regulars? Totally possible. But the chances they're both studs is miniscule. This is just the cost of doing business in baseball. You pay possible future value for current value. Especially when that possible future value isn't even your top possible future value. Steer wasn't taking the 3B job in Minneapolis over Miranda. Or the 2B job over Polanco, Julien, or Lee/Lewis. Strand doesn't belong anywhere near the field defensively at this point, and wasn't taking the DH job in Minneapolis over Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, et al. For Strand to be a stud he has to be Nelson Cruz. I'll take the under on that bet. Hajjar has the possibility to be the one who hurts losing depending how things play out with him in Cleveland and the arms the Twins still have. But the 2 bats they traded likely wouldn't even make the 26-man roster on any of the next 3 opening days. Trading guys who weren't going to be amongst your 13 opening day bats for a guy who can be an above average pitcher is a good trade 100% of the time.
  15. chpettit19
    The interesting thing is the Twins hit .333 with runners in scoring position. Good for 5th in baseball after the first weekend.
  16. chpettit19
    I think the analytics leading to increases in three true outcome results played a large role in the pitch clock. Yes, all the walking around the mound, or adjusting batting gloves, or whatever have grown as well, but the games were starting to last longer and longer as teams began building teams based around hitters working counts (also a strategy to get starters out earlier), and pitchers striking people out. It all kind of piled on and created a game that was lengthening. To your point about changing the number of bases or balls and strikes, it wasn't going to be easy to stop hitters from working counts or convince guys striking out wasn't that big of a deal so they had to go with the clock. So I think there was some analytics driven game length stuff on top of the just super slow pace of some guys.
  17. chpettit19
    Julien's current OBP in AAA is .154. 1 for 12 with 6 Ks and 1 walk in AAA is not exactly what I'd expect to see out of someone who is so clearly the obvious answer to batting leadoff in the majors. Brooks Lee has a chance to be great, but he wasn't great in Spring Training, and dropping him into an everyday role 8 months after he was drafted would be an absolutely awful decision for his development. They'll get their chances, and both have a chance to be wonderful players. But let's pump the brakes a bit on them for now. It's 3 games in.
  18. chpettit19
    I think dropping that platoon into the 9th spot with Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Larnach-Miranda (or arrange them however you want) at the top would be my choice over dropping Polanco all the way down to 6th. My thought process being that when you get late in the game and you've switched that platoon up as the other team starts bringing in relievers you're more likely to end up with Farmer or Gordon hitting against a same-handed pitcher, and then you've turned your 1 hole hitter into a well below average hitter while Polanco is losing ABs being way down at 6th.
  19. chpettit19
    Twins released Greiner and Sisco at the end of March.
  20. chpettit19
    So far this season Gallo is in the 58th percentile for sprint speed. His 26.5 ft/s sprint speed is the slowest of his career to this point. He's been more of a 27+ ft/s guy to this point. Larnach's sprint speed this season is at 27.0 ft/s after having been 26.5 last year. They're about as similar as you can get. Both much better athletes than you'd expect out of 6'4" and 6'5" guys. Nice to have some added athleticism to the Twins lineup! But I agree, Larnach is just fine in the 4 hole.
  21. chpettit19
    Fascinating thoughts here. Buxton has a career OBP of .302. He doesn't steal bases anymore. And is a high K, low BA slugger. But he's really fast. Gallo has a career OBP of .325. He doesn't really steal bases either. He's a high K, low BA slugger. But he's not super fast. Is Buxton's "skill set" just being fast? Because that's literally the only thing in their offensive games that he's got a real advantage in when it comes to leading off. Gallo lead the American League in walks just 2 years ago and had an OBP of .351. Buxton has had an OBP over .314 1 time in his career. I fail to see how Buxton "can actually get on base" or is the closest to being a classic leadoff hitter "based on his skill set." He's just the fastest guy on the team. All that being said I'd put Buxton there. But that's just because I want my most dangerous hitters getting the most ABs. I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa to sandwich Polanco between the 2 righties and ensure he's seeing mostly righties since he's a better left handed hitter. But that lineup configuration has nothing to do with Buxton being anything close to a classic leadoff hitter. He's not. Never has been. Gallo had a 9.1% BB rate last year. By far his worst of his career. Buxton has never topped 9% in any season. Buxton is no classic leadoff hitter. He's simply fast. He's basically the opposite of Arraez who we're comparing these guys to. And Arraez had no speed at all. Gallo is actually quite a bit faster than Arraez. Interesting takes here.
  22. chpettit19
    My struggle is with the idea that "Lopez was dealing" when you admit you weren't able to watch the game. He wasn't "dealing." He was getting outs. But the 4th and 5th were most definitely not dealing. He was lucky to get Melendez to swing at a 3-1 pitch that should've been ball 4 and walked in a run. Melendez is a patient hitter, and against a better team he won't get away with that. This is one of the situations where the box scores aren't giving enough info to describe what was actually happening. Pablo getting out of the 4th and 5th with no runs scored was great, but it wasn't as if he'd gone 5 innings and only had 2 base runners. He was losing control of his fastball fast.
  23. chpettit19
    What I always come back to on this topic is "what are other teams doing?" Are other teams really doing much more than the Twins? The NFL has rules about how and when injury information is disseminated by teams so they don't really fit in the debate. The NHL has a requirement of saying if it's an upper or lower body injury. How often, and how well, are the Wild giving updates on Kaprizov, his treatment, and his timeline? I don't follow them nearly as close as the Twins, but I don't remember seeing weekly updates on him. Completely possible I'm missing updates, though. The NBA has some fake rules about sitting players during national TV games, but it's well known that any NBA player can just be sitting during any random game because of "load management." How well were the Wolves updating their fans on the KAT injury over the last 4 or 5 months (I don't follow them closely so forget how long it was that he was out)? I do remember at least 1 article mentioning that the timeline for KAT ended up being much longer than they'd originally said. Are the folks over at Wolves Daily up in arms over that? I'm confused by the difference between that Warriors tweet on Curry and what we get out of the Twins. There's multiple articles on Lewis and his recovery out there. There were tweet after tweet about Buxton, Kirilloff, and Polanco all spring saying pretty much the same thing that the Curry tweet says. They were taking BP, playing minor league games, whatever and making progress. Their return to the "real field" would depend on how they progress and respond to those other activities. The Twins gave more than weekly updates all spring that were the same as what the example tweet used here says they should be doing. I simply fail to see where other teams are doing significantly more than the Twins.
  24. chpettit19
    Miranda just seems to be a guy who knows how to put the bat on the ball. Looks real "hitterish" to me. Has the chance to establish himself as a heart-of-the-order bat this year. I never really expected great pop out of him (not bad, but not 30-homer type), but he's hit a couple balls this spring that sure make him look like he may get to 30 bombs in a season a time or 2. I'd be more than happy with 20 homers and 40 doubles. I like Larnach's new Freeman-esque looking swing. Up the middle oriented swing with plenty of power to hit it out there while also using "the big part of the field" to maintain a nice BA. Health is the only real question I have with him. If he stays healthy I think he establishes himself as the #4 or 5 hitter in this lineup for the next 5 years. Ober is simply all about health. He can't become a trusted starter for this team if he can't get to 100-120 innings this season. Can he stay healthy? That's the only question with him. If he can't make it to 100-120 innings this season he's got to go to the pen and try to stay healthy there. Kid can pitch, but can he pitch enough to be a starter?
  25. chpettit19
    If I'm remembering correctly, Henriquez started throwing again a little while back so it could be that Sands is holding that spot. I'd expect Sands is at, or near, the bottom of the 40-man at this point. They won't take him off if they don't need to, but a really rough April from him and an injury to a catcher could lead to him being the DFA to get a catcher on the 40-man (just an example of a need for a 40-man spot). I think Sands is pitching for his 40-man spot in April almost as much as his 26-man spot. I don't like his chances, but this is why they play the games. I hope him and Pagan both prove me wrong, but I'm not excited about the pen including both of them at this point.
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