chpettit19

While I agree with your general stance here, it's going to be hard for them to use Legumina in the pen, or trade him for pen help, since they traded him about 4 months ago for Kyle Farmer.

Fastball location, and spin efficiency, improvements could be huge for him. He's got the stuff that makes him worth holding onto and seeing what he becomes, but the performance that says he shouldn't be expected to be a big part of a competing bullpen until he shows he can use that stuff effectively.

I think it matters if he gets a minor league or major league contract. A minor league contract means he isn't on the 40-man until they decide he's the best option and call him up. If he signs a major league deal he's automatically on the 26-man or playing the waive and wait game if they want to send him down early. Those open 40-man spots are useful and shouldn't be given to someone who may not be good enough to be on the 26-man on opening day. Especially if they don't have any options. Guys will get waived during the spring and having open 40-man spots to take a shot at someone much younger than Hand is a better use of those spots, in my opinion.

I'd certainly offer him a minor league deal if he's willing to take that. I think he's cooked so wouldn't be excited to offer him a major league deal. But I'm a pretty big Moran believer. And many teams are only carrying 1 lefty now. The days of the LOOGY are gone. It's the time of straight up relievers now. You simply have to be able to get both lefties and righties out now. The 3 batter minimum, and teams using data to make decisions more than ever means it's far less likely you have room for anyone who is matchup specific in your pen. Matchups aren't about lefty vs righty anymore, they're about high vs low leverage.

The context in which he put up those numbers is important. That BA was 15th in that league for hitters with 190+ PAs. As a 19 year old. Of the 14 guys with higher BAs, 10 of them were at least 21 years old. And for a little extra fun, the Twins now have Jose Salas in their system and he was 19th on that list of BA at the age of 19 as well. Those 9 HRs were 19th best in the league. And he played only 47 games. The lowest games played of anyone in the league with more was 56 by a 22 year old 3B (not 19 year old CFer like Rodriguez). And that guy had 2 more HRs. That guy (his name is Damiano Palmegiani) was the only player in the league to hit more HRs/game played than Rodriguez. If that's not impressive to you I don't know what to tell you. Well I guess I could tell you that Rodriguez lead the league in HRs/AB. And was 4th in extra base hits per AB. As a 19 year old, up the middle player. I guess that's where the hype comes from.

He's young in terms of MLB experience, but he's not young in general. He's 27. To me that's not young in terms of his maturation process. 2017 was his only minor league season that showed any real patience at the plate. Otherwise, he's basically been a 5% BB% guy throughout his career. Which is the bottom 10% of the league type of stuff. It's certainly not impossible that he makes a major shift at the age of 27, but it's also not likely. It's far more likely that this is just the type of hitter he is, and he'll rely heavily on needing to maximize every ball he puts in play. Thus his sky high BABIP is one of the biggest keys to his success, and I don't think he can maintain top 10 in all of baseball BABIPs.

I hope you're right. His 7th percentile BB rate, 6th percentile chase rate, 28th percentile whiff rate, and 34th percentile K rate (along with the BABIP numbers I already pointed out) are indications to me that we should be worried about his performance going forward. He swings way more than the average hitter. He swings and misses way more than the average hitter. He chases pitches way more than the average hitter. The league knows that now. He swings at the first pitch significantly more than the average hitter. Over 40% of the time. Teams know that now. The league is going to adjust and he's going to have to adjust to them. He's going to see a bunch of pitches outside the zone moving forward and he's going to have to learn to lay off them or his numbers will absolutely go down significantly. It is hard to maintain big time production when you swing at everything, and you swing and miss a lot. I hope you're right. I hope there's no dip in his production at all. But I'm not betting on it, and there are very real reasons to have concerns about it. The key is going to be learning to lay off low breaking balls. I'm sure he's been made aware of that, and hopefully he's prepared to do it. Only time will tell.

And that's why he'd be on my opening day roster. But I don't think he maintains those numbers, let alone improves on them. The projection systems don't think he improves either. Fangraphs has him at a 99 wRC+ this year. I don't love projection systems in the grand scheme of things, but I think he's closer to the .240 hitter he was in 2021 than the .272 hitter he was in 2022. I'd love to be wrong, and he's earned a chance to prove me wrong. But I think the .253/.301/.399 triple slash fangraphs has him projected for is about right. In that case I'm taking Farmer and his glove with their predicted .245/.301/.365 triple slash. Gordon has earned a shot to prove last year wasn't fake, and he really can maintain that production, but I'm just not sold. Teams know he swings at everything now and he has to make real adjustments to just maintain his 2022 production. We'll see if he can do it. I hope he can. Just wouldn't bet on it. But that's why they play the games and don't just go on my estimations.

A 112 OPS+ built on a .344 BABIP. I find that to be a likely unsustainable number. In 2021, when his BABIP was .300 against righties he had an 88 OPS+. His BABIP against righties in 2022 was .364, and I think that's incredibly unlikely to be sustained. I mean that was 6th in baseball for hitters with at least 190 PAs against righties. Even a .344 BABIP would've put him top 25 in baseball. A .300 BABIP against righties is top 125ish. I think the .300 BABIP is a more likely outcome than the .344, let alone .364. You may not agree. But if he's got a .300 BABIP against righties I'm taking Farmer in an everyday role at 3B over Gordon.

Oh, I definitely agree that if you have to start them both and those are the only 2 positions available you start Gordon at 3B to keep Gallo in the OF, but in general if we're to the place where we're in an emergency need at 3B (which is what it'd take for me to put Gordon at 3B) then I think Gallo is still an option. I wouldn't want to put either of them there, though. He'd be a little better than Farmer with the bat against righties, but I'd take Farmer's glove and the slight dip at the plate over Gordon still. Gordon had an 88 OPS+ against righties in 2021. If he's back sub-90 OPS+ against righties he's not on my roster at all. Last year earned him a 4th/5th OF spot on the opening day roster for me, but I'm not one of the folks who think he should be given a ton of playing time early based on last year. He'd have to do a lot more proving in ST and April before he's getting a bunch of playing time if I were Rocco. But I'm not. Or at least you can't prove I am...

I'm not saying he was a gold glover at 3B, but there's multiple guys in the bigs playing 3B right now with those sorts of stats (Austin Riley being the worst of them). He moved off 3B because of Adrian Beltre and he's a better OFer so he stuck. But I don't know why we'd think Gordon is much better than that. Gordon was tied with Aaron Judge for the 30th in baseball for guys with at least 300 PA with a .340 BABIP last year. Correa had a .339. If you go to hitters with 400 PAs they move up to 21st in baseball. Into the top 20 in baseball at 450 PAs (Gordon had 443). There were only 15 qualified hitters in baseball last year who had a BABIP of .340 or higher. I find it very hard to believe Nick Gordon is going to BABIP .340 again. I hope I'm wrong, but it's very, very unlikely.

Why do you say that about Gallo? He moved off third because Texas had some guy named Adrian Beltre playing there when he came up. Then he started playing OF and was a gold glover there so he stuck there. He's every bit the option Gordon is at 3B. I mean isn't the obvious counter to Gordon being an IF option "if Nick Gordon could remotely handle playing in field he'd still be there?" He's only played in emergencies since he's been called up. I don't think Farmer is getting everyday reps against righties, but he's not going to sit on the bench for over 70% of the team's games simply because it's a righty on the mound. He's going to get starts against righties. Probably a pretty significant amount. I'm also not sold on Gordon's offense being all that great. I don't expect him to maintain the sky high BABIP he had last year. And when that BABIP drops he's toast, and his offensive production won't outweigh any defensive liability due to his complete lack of patience at the plate. You seem to feel differently about expectations for his bat moving forward, and that's fine. But I'm not sold on Gordon being good enough with the stick to play any corner position for any real amount of time.

Yeah, also confused why Gallo doesn't count. I think they prefer Farmer start every day against lefties, but the idea that they aren't going to start him plenty of times against righties confuses me, too. I think Miranda and Farmer get every inning at 3B until one is injured or falls apart. Then it's Julien most likely. Then Lewis and Lee as the next options depending how late in the season a need arises. If Gordon is playing significant time at 3B I think it's very likely things have gone terribly, terribly wrong.

Certainly looks like a nice piece. I think the goal should be 100 IP, and a taste of AA ball by the end of the year to keep him on a track for a front end starter. Would be very exciting to have him and Prielipp both ending the season at AA to give us a couple guys with a chance to be front end starters soonish.

Oh, the overall depth was not good at all. It's what doomed them, and now has people acting like they won every game 11-10 because of all the HRs. My ultimate point is simply that they pitched very well that year, and were a complete team when healthy. But their lack of depth made a couple injuries, and a suspension, absolutely devastating at the absolutely worst time of year.

I like that Biggio comp. Hadn't thought of that one. Julien isn't the defender Biggio is, but I'd take a little more offense as that trade off and hope Julien is a rich man's Biggio.

I'd love to see Julien tear up the WBC, and spring training, and make it really hard to send him to St Paul instead of KC to start the year. If Kirilloff is needing a little more time to get everything together after his wrist surgery there's an opening at 1B that Julien should be gunning for. His potential OBP in the 9 hole to start the year could be wonderful in front of the 3 big hitters I think most of us expect to be in the 1-3 spots in some order. I know he's stolen a bunch of bases, but, from what I've read on scouting reports, he's not actually all that fast. I prefer speed in the OF, but it sounds like he's simply not an infielder (outside 1B maybe). I know we have a ton of LH cOFers already, but it sounds like he simply doesn't have the hands and footwork to play 2B (or 3B). There's also only so much you can realistically expect someone to improve. From the sounds of it Julien may just be 1 of those guys. Another LH cOF/1B/DH is not ideal for this team, but wasting more time with Julien at positions he simply can't play isn't ideal either. With Gallo and Kepler gone within the next year I think there's room to carry a bunch of the lefties we have. Especially since a few of them don't currently have dramatic splits when facing LHPs. If he can maintain a .400 OBP in the bigs he's worth keeping next to Kirilloff (if he can hit like he has when healthy) and Larnach (if he can hit like he has when healthy).

Well the article is about 1 season, and you and I were talking about 1 series, so yeah, I "cherry picked" that rotation. Since it was literally what we were talking about. But I also then pointed out that the Dodgers have been full of aces in the playoffs for years and come up short every year outside of the shortened 2020 season. I pointed out that both 2021 rotations were so lacking in top arms that they averaged less than 5 and less than 4 innings per start for the postseason. I pointed to the Phillies rotation last year that was 2 really good pitchers (like the Twins had in the season we're talking about, and you even pointed out in the '87 season) and a bunch of nothing. I didn't point out that their offense was very HR dependant, but could've done that, too. The Brewers have been running multiple top starters out in the postseason for years, backed by an elite back end of their bullpen, but never make deep runs. How could that be? The Dodgers and Brewers each have ace filled rotations, and you've made it very clear that's what wins in the playoffs. Why haven't I been tagging along with my Milwaukee friends to NLCS games against the Dodgers every year? It's almost like the postseason is nowhere near as "aces and BA win" as you're suggesting. So, yes, I believe the Twins COULD have made a deep run with a healthy team in 2019. But I'm also crazy enough to believe that the postseason is incredibly random, and "the best team" with the most aces and least HR dependant lineup doesn't win most of the time. But, hey, you're able to "cherry pick" the Nationals from 1 season with a rotation that fits your narrative so at least there's that. There's no rhyme or reason to the postseason. Get in and do your best to get hot for that month. I don't know how many more studies people smarter than us have to do with postseason stats to get people to believe that, but clearly it'll take at least 1 more to convince many Twins fans that the team simply isn't too dumb to ever accomplish that ultimate goal. I mean, shoot, the Phillies hit a high K, high power, low BA guy leadoff last year and thought they could win. Those idiots don't know you can't win without a no power, slap hitter at the top? That's baseball 101, obviously!

"Cherry picking from that year?" We're literally talking about that year. It's not cherry picking by using the stats from the year you're talking about. What a weird thing to say. It would've been very hard to beat those teams, yes. That's kind of how the postseason is designed. But winning that Yankees series changes a whole lot of narratives, doesn't it? We're not talking about an 18 game playoff losing streak. We're not talking about a FO and manager who've never won a playoff game. It'd change a lot. The Braves won the 2021 World Series with a rotation worse than the Twins 2019 rotation. Charlie Morton and Max Fried were their only 2 pitchers to get to even 2 fWAR that year. It may not be a "hot take," but it's not all that great of a take either. How about you go ask the Dodgers how having all their aces has worked out. Yeah, Washington won that WS with an insane rotation. They completely collapsed with that rotation moving forward. Go look at how Houston's rotation performed in the 2021 post season. People think Rocco has a quick hook? That Astros' rotation averaged less than 4 IP per start on their way to a WS loss. Atlanta wasn't much better. Less than 5 IP per start on their way to a WS title. How's the best starter (Kershaw) of this generation done in the postseason? The Phillies rotation last year was 2 studs (kinda like Berrios and Odo in 2019) followed by a whole bunch of guys who were worse than Pineda and Gibson in 2019. HR's are the "stickiest" playoff offensive stat, actually. So you're provably wrong there. HRs are the best way to score in any baseball game. Even against great pitchers. And it's the stat that caries over the closest from regular season to postseason. You're throwing out all these ideas that people constantly suggest because that's how it "feels" when they watch the postseason. But in reality they're not correct. HRs don't drop in the postseason, BA does. The postseason isn't full of aces blowing through 7, 8, or 9 innings, it's full of staffs of 10 or so guys that can all get playoff guys out. And, mostly, it's just about which team has an Eddie Rosario or 2 that play out of their minds for the month of October. Jeremy Pena being the guy last year (go check his regular season vs postseason stats, it's insane). The postseason is nowhere near as predictable as people like to act. Otherwise the Dodgers would have way more championships than just the 2020 short season title.

By the time they got to the playoffs, yes, but Pineda and Gibson were both 2.6 fWAR pitchers in 2019. That put them in the top 50 in baseball. Along with Berrios and Odo they had 4 pitchers in the top 50 of fWAR that year. Pineda getting suspended, and Gibson getting sick, really changed that team at the end of the year.

As opposed to James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka (and his 4.45 ERA), and Luis Severino who threw 12 regular season innings that year? Cuz those are the games 1, 2, and 3 starters for the Yankees in that series. Not exactly striking fear in any opposing line ups with that trio either.

A healthy (and not suspended) Twins pitching staff in 2019 was top 10 in baseball. Unfortunately, they weren't healthy (or not suspended) in the postseason. They finished top 10 in just about every pitching stat in baseball in 2019.

That data is since 2019, not just 2019. The Dodgers didn't accrue 86 pitching fWAR in 1 season. Here's 2019: Twins 4, Yankees 10 in pitching WAR. Twins beat them in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, and BB/9. The Twins had a good pitching staff in 2019.

They didn't have enough pitching to make up for Pineda getting suspended, Gibson getting sick, and Dyson being hurt. Their overall pitching that year was actually really good, but fell apart going into the playoffs due to their lack of depth. They had the 9th best ERA in baseball. 4th most pitching fWAR, allowed the 5th fewest HR/9, were 4th in FIP, and 5th in xFIP. It's one of the biggest "what if" seasons I can remember for the Twins. What if their pitching was healthy, and not suspended, going into the playoffs? Could've been a different story. Note: I'm not saying you weren't just meaning depth when you say "didn't have enough pitching," but I like to point out how good their pitching actually was that year because so many people put that entire season on the 307 HRs, and pretend they had a bottom 10 pitching staff or something. That was a complete team when it was all together. Just wasn't all together going into the playoffs, unfortunately.

I'm super excited for this! Really cool so many Twins will get to participate. There are some pretty insane lineups for the top teams. It's awesome to watch all star teams play for real, and truly care about winning. The best baseball players on the planet battling it out is the best!