chpettit19

I lean towards the idea that they're relying too much on batted ball data. To me, that's why Kepler is still here. I think they've dove off the edge of the analytics cliff. It certainly feels like they really struggle with reading what the numbers are really saying, and are too invested in the numbers at the same time. That's not a good combination. They have too many specialized players who they see exciting data for in specific areas that they think they can slot in correctly to maximize. And too few just really good baseball players. They feel like undergrads trying to do graduate level mathematics. They may get the general concepts, but can't really execute the formulas consistently enough.

Oh, I 100% agree. This all starts at the top.

Results are definitely what matters, and our bosses will fire us no matter what our processes are if we're not getting results, but the company's results won't improve if the processes being executed are the bosses, and don't change. That's why I put this mess on the FO. You have to change them to see real change in the organizations results.

I think it's both. It's a flawed process (building nearly an entire offense around high K, low BA, high HR hitters) that leads to flawed talents since you're attempting to find players that fill your flawed process.

What should his demeanor be? Any modern managers you can point to with better demeanors that we should be looking at as examples?

This, to me, is a very complex question. He's paid to execute the "sweet process" of the FO that they believe will lead to wins. And I think that's part of the hesitation in firing him. He's doing things the way the FO wants them done. That doesn't mean he's a "yes man" or "puppet," though. The FO hires people who agree with their general approach, and theories, on baseball. The FO firing Rocco, or the coaches, is saying, at least in part, that their approaches, theories, whatever are wrong. It then becomes much harder for them to explain to the Pohlads why they should be allowed more time to fix things. So, the answers to your questions, to me, are both yes. But the winning is the expected results from the sweet process.

MAT has hit .250 twice in his career. In 2019 while playing 53 games for the Nats, and last year playing 124 games in KC. There is no reason at all to think him playing everyday would lead to a .250 hitter. And he's played 73 of their 82 games while missing time after getting hit in the head with a pitch. He's a terrible example for your point. I do agree with the frustrations around the scheduled off days that lead to sitting guys who are playing well, though.

Oh come on. You claimed he was put in the leadoff spot and not touched and that the Twins were screwing up his performance by bouncing him around the lineup. You were wrong. Don't try to turn it into some indictment of the use of the 3 hole. You were wrong. He's been in different lineup spots significantly more with the Marlins. He is literally proof of the opposite of your lineup spot claim. He played 1B/2B/DH primarily for the Twins last year. Mostly 1B, but a good chunk of 2B as well.He's played the same 3 spots for the Marlins this year. Almost all at 2B, though. So, sure, you're right, having to stand 45 feet further left of the hitter is so important it makes up for him having to bounce around the lineup far more often. Even though lineup spot consistency is vital.

2023 Luis Arraez in Miami has made 31 starts in the leadoff spot, and 34 in the 3 hole. He's also started 1 game as the 2 hole hitter, and 6 as the 4 hole hitter. 2022 Luis Arraez in Minnesota made 91 starts in the leadoff spot, 18 in the 2 hole, 9 in the 3 hole, 1 in the 4, 6 in the 5th, 3 in the 6th, and 1 in the 9th. 2023 with the Marlins: 34 out of 72 starts in the 3 hole for 47.2% as the highest percentage of his starts in a lineup spot for him. 2022 with the Twins: 91 of 129 starts in the 1 hole for 70.5% as the highest percentage of his starts in a lineup spot for him. Maybe he's not the "best case scenario" you want to go with when arguing how much lineup spot consistency matters.

I'm with you 100% in the big picture. Atlanta has 10 clear everyday guys, and 3 guys who are clear bench guys. The Twins don't. It's a flaw in roster construction. They appear to want to build their team around flawed, interchangeable pieces that they hope they can put in the right situations enough to improve their overall performance. It doesn't help that the guys they counted on to be their stable core (Buxton, Polanco, Correa) have all face planted in 1 way or another. But the rest of the roster is built poorly. It's why, even though I'd clear house, I don't put so much blame on Rocco, and the coaches. I don't think they're great by any means, but you can only do so much with such a flawed roster.

100% agreed. And Julien. And Wallner. And Larnach. And Miranda. I don't expect all those guys to be great, or even MLB quality. But they need to find out. And, offensively, they can't be worse than what we're currently running out there.

Because their norm isn't good enough. You're misinterpreting what I'm saying. I don't have rose colored glasses. I've been saying since the start of the year that there wasn't enough talent on the offense. They're lacking true impact hitters. But the post I replied to suggested that every free agent signing was performing worse than they had in previous years. That isn't true. They aren't. They're performing almost exactly how they always have. There's a difference between not being good enough (what I'm arguing is the case) and performing worse than they had previously (what the other post claimed).

I don't disagree. I'm just saying there aren't 9 guys who I see as clearly their "best players." It's not even about their best players being not good enough. It's that I don't see 9 guys who are clearly better than the other guys. It's possible you do. But I don't. I agree they rest guys too much. I agree they're way too extreme with platoons. I hate how much they mess around with the top of the order. But I can't pick out 9 guys and say "these are clearly your 9 best players, play them everyday."

Isn't pointing at Rocco cherry picking? Why are we only allowed to pick out 1 manager to blame if it's the Twins manager? You should've seen Astros social media the other day. They're calling for Dusty's head for his bullpen management. How about Bob Melvin in San Diego? Was he good last year (and most of his years in Oakland), but bad this year? Oliver Marmol forget how to manage this year? I'd fire everyone. FO on down. But this is a flawed team. This is a team lacking in offensive talent. It's absolutely reasonable to question coaching, culture, whatever. But, as the title of this thread says, it's the roster. Managers, and coaches, simply don't turn bad players into good ones. Are there a whole lot of players playing well below what our expectations were? Correa and Vazquez are obvious answers with the bat. Are we shocked Buxton is injured and streaky? Surprised Gallo is a high K, high HR, streaky bat? Surprised Kepler isn't a good hitter? Or MAT? Castro is playing his best baseball since 2020, is that Rocco and Popkins? Are we surprised Farmer and Solano are best served as bench/utility players, and not starters? We surprised Pagan struggles in high leverage spots? Is Duran doing well because of Rocco? Jax fix himself cuz of Rocco? The rotation pitching so well because of Rocco? It's talent. This roster is not talented enough. And managers and coaches don't make bad players good ones. They simply don't. 2 days ago was Rocco good because the Twins were in first? Why is Francona good despite being below .500 just because he's in first? That's not an impressive cherry you picked (even though I think Francona is great). Shouldn't the Cleveland fans be calling for his head since they're basically performing the same as the Twins?

They've improved their talent. They added an MVP candidate to their lineup, and gotten Marte back. Adding 2 studs to your lineup tends to lead to improvement in run scoring.

Do you believe the organization is preaching different things in the minors than the majors? Especially at AAA? They're already being molded to the team's way of doing things. The Saints strike out a ton. Half their roster strikes out at basically 30% or higher clips. They just happen to bring more power with the K's down there. I agree that there's little chance the coaching staff drastically changes their approach this year, but changing coaching staffs midway through the season isn't going to fix the overall problem either. Who are you hiring midseason that can come in and drastically change things?

The Saints have 13 hitters with at least 100 PAs this year. 6 of them have K% of 29.7 or higher. A 7th at 27.9%. If you're hoping to fix the strikeout problem I think the hitting coach in St Paul is not a good place to start. Assuming we're blaming the hitting coach in Minneapolis for the K problems.

Who are the "best players" on the Twins right now? Who should be the 9 (or 10 if you're alternating catchers) guys that are in the lineup everyday?

While I don't disagree that it's probably time for Popkins to go, that bolded sentence is wrong. Gallo, Farmer, and MAT are hitting at basically their career norms/expectations with a slight dip from last year for Farmer and MAT, but within acceptable variance range. Vazquez has been much worse. Solano has been better than last year, and at about his norm since 2019. Castro is having the best year of his career, outside of 2020.

Someone as good as, let's say, Buck Showalter would have those 3 backups or worse playing like stars! There's no way an old school guy, with fire in his gut, and a feel for the game, like Showalter wouldn't have these guys playing well above their talent level. Managers are vital, and coaches turn bad players into good ones! It's why the Met's owner would never have to do a mid-season presser to discuss how his half a billion dollar team is struggling. Oh wait...

I really hope there are, but I don't expect them. I think, in his head, he was talking about changing things behind the scenes with their approach, or preparation, or effort, or whatever. I don't at all expect them to make any moves today. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised, but I expect to see the same 26 guys in the dugout tomorrow that we saw yesterday.

I agree with the general idea of playing your best guys everyday. And I know we agree that this team is lacking truly impactful bats. Where I think this ties into the idea of the OP, though, is the lack of talent. It's easy to set Atlanta's lineup everyday and just stick with it. They have 10 guys (2 catchers) that are clearly everyday players right now, and 3 guys who are clearly bench guys (they even carry a 3rd catcher). The Twins have a whole bunch of bench players. There's very little difference in the 13 guys the Twins continue to roster as position players, in my view. I do wish they'd just put Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff in the top 3 spots (to see what they can do), and never take them out, for the next 3 weeks at least, but otherwise it feels like splitting hairs to call anyone their "best players" right now. They "have to" play Correa everyday, and they do. Buxton is a weird case, and I'd prefer they IL him for the rest of the year so they don't feel obligated to play him. But who else on this team do we consider clearly "best players?" And to tie this into the OP again, I think this is the FO's plan. I think they view 7, 8, or 9 position player spots the same way they view the pen. Not worth the investment as they can mix and match pieces to find advantages that allow them to thrive. They view the margins as way bigger than I think they should. Platooning, pen matchups, defensive versatility, etc. are ways teams can "win on the margins." This FO has decided to dive into those margins and build a team around them. You may view the roster differently, but I just see a bunch partial players they think they can mix and match into complete players. There aren't any "best players" on this team right now, if you ask me. It's why I'd like to see them dive into the youth movement, and see if they can actually find some "best players."

Kenta was solid again today. So that's fun.

Enlow is the one that comes to mind to me, but I'd be good with letting him settle in at AAA a few more starts and trying one of the other guys first. I'm just ready to take chances on a higher ceiling. This thread is about Pagan, but I'm even talking the team in general. It feels like we've hit the ceiling. For multiple years now. It's time to try some options who's ceiling's we aren't 100% positive on yet.

I don't know enough about the system, but I'd be looking internally just as much, and not waiting on just the waiver wire. I think the biggest disconnect with many fans and the FO is that we define "intriguing" differently than them. My level for what it'd take to be intrigued enough to replace him is very clearly lower than the FO's level.