chpettit19

I'd expect everyone in the Twins org to have put in work during the offseason, and I really hope the team is going off far more than 16 games. A .231 batting average in September (17 games) in AAA doesn't scream "I'm ready" to me. Not saying the door should be completely closed for him to start the year, but there's a lot left for him to prove in the minors.

Yes, 26-man roster. His "clock" at this point is just option years, correct. He won't start accruing service time until he debuts. There's another way, but I won't risk jinxing him by mentioning it. But for right now the only "concern" with him is he's going to start using up his options this year so they'll want him to debut and look like he can make it within the next couple seasons before he gets to that Gordon spot where he's out of options and they aren't sure about him.

I don't think we should take that quote so literally. They're not actually going to ask Lee where he wants to play. His play is going to do the speaking, and so far it hasn't said "I'm ready for the majors." There's a pretty small chance Lee sees the majors in the first month of the season, I think.

Yes, there is very much a pathway to an improved record for the Twins, but replacing Sonny's innings is not easy. The people who do projections don't see it as likely, but I'm not suggesting there's no way they can improve. I think this team is very similar to last year's in that their range of reasonable outcomes is massive. If everything goes right they're a 90+ win team. If a few key things go wrong they're in the mid-80s again, and if more than a few key things go wrong they're in the 70s. There's very little certainty I see with this team, even if I can see the reasons for hope that people have. I just think replacing Sonny's innings from last year is a big challenge, and I don't think they've done it. They seem to be leaning more into the pen and my guess is we're maybe looking at some more "short start" frustration this year as they plan to lean more heavily on the pen. I am very excited for them to get things rolling so we can actually see some players playing and not just keep speculating on everything! I'm expecting a very interesting season, and I'm hoping we see some guys really take off and establish themselves as the new core.

I think you're underselling what Gray did for the team, and how easy it is to replace it. 184 innings alone is a lot to fill in this day and age. And if they're not being filled by an ERA less than 3 that 15-18 record would be much worse. The Twins scored an average of 3.71 runs per game during Gray's starts. There were 24 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA under 3.71 last year. Yes, 15-18 isn't great, but there was a lot of room to go down there. In Sonny's 32 starts only 14 of them saw the team score at least 4 runs. If the #2 Cy Young candidate gets you to only 15-18 with an ERA under 3 in 32 starts there's a lot of space to go down and you should be very concerned. An average pitcher replacing him sends that record down dramatically. Just looking at the record in those games and saying "well others going .500 is reasonable so it's not that hard to replace" ignores what caused that record. The team being under .500 with him on the mound should make you nervous about replacing him, not excited. If you hand a lesser pitcher 18 starts where their team is going to score 3 or fewer runs that 15-18 record plummets. Replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is very hard. Was never going to be done by just 1 person being added to the roster, but a 15-18 record with a sub-3 ERA is a bad sign for replacing him, not a good one.

Yeah, I certainly don't see them signing any of Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger, but I took your statement that only Snell was better than their system guys to mean you didn't think Montgomery or Bellinger were. It will be very interesting to see what happens with those guys over the next few weeks. I'd put Soler on my list of players I'd like them to sign if they can get them for 3 years or less, as well. I'd actually take Montgomery over Snell, or anyone on our team outside Lopez, because I think he's a playoff stud and that's what I care about. I don't expect any big moves between now and the season, but I see a rotation spot open (would very much like to keep Varland in the #6 spot to start the year and upgrade on DeSclafani) and a lineup spot open. We'll see if they pull another rabbit out of their hats.

Nope, the opposite. If you get hurt while on the MLB roster your time on the IL counts towards your service time. Royce Lewis, for example, has accrued over a year of service time, but we are all well aware that he's only played in 70 total games. But all his time on the IL was counted as service time.

A whole year is 172 days on the MLB roster or IL. The season is 187 days so you have basically 2 weeks that you can not be on the roster or IL and get credit for a full year. So to be eligible for the extra draft pick a player needs to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season and then stay on the roster enough of the rest of the year to not go beyond those 15 days of cushion you get.

You believe there's a player in our system that could help the 2024 team more than Jordan Montgomery or Cody Bellinger? The Twins shouldn't sign them for a ton of years, but if they can get one of them on a deal like Correa's first deal (essentially a 1 year deal) you don't think they're more of an upgrade than guys in the system?

I don't see any chance Lee breaks camp, or is up in the first couple weeks, to be eligible for the extra pick compensation unless the team is hit hard by spring injuries. I think the more realistic chance for the Twins to take advantage of this opportunity is with Rodriguez and Jenkins the next couple years. I'd like to see the Twins do what other teams have with their top prospects and give them a September callup (if they've earned it) the season before so they get their feet wet and have a better chance of sticking on the opening day roster the next season. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll had both debuted the previous season, but didn't get enough ABs to exhaust their rookie eligibility. If they go that route with Lee it's going to be pretty disappointing as there's very likely a job opening due to injury sometime well before September 2024. I don't see any way he's really a factor in the fight for an extra draft pick. But Rodriguez getting a late season callup in 2024 and hitting the opening day roster for 2025 could be a possibility. Or Jenkins making our dreams come true by following Jackson Holliday's lead and blowing through the entire system in a year could open the door, too. Lee just isn't in a place to make the opening day roster (I'd argue there's a starting spot open, though) because he hasn't shown a mastery of the minor leagues yet. He's looking much more like a mid-season callup.

Yes, it would be a disappointment if the expectation is he's a star. It would put him more on track with being a good regular instead of being a star. You can think it sounds harsh, but that's just what history tells us. There is a difference between 3 year college players and guys who get to pro ball as teens. The speed with which you're able to jump levels matters when it comes to the expectations of ceiling. Rodriguez starts using up options this year. If it takes him 2 more years before he's getting real playing time it changes his situation because then he's in his final option year and either needs to figure it out or you're looking at a Gordon situation. Stars generally don't take until they're out of options to figure it out. There's more to it than just age. Once you hit the 40-man roster things change. Of course he has some time to develop. I didn't say he'd be a lost cause or we should give up on him, but it very much changes his outlook if he has to go 1 level at a time through the minors. Stars don't do that. Maybe you don't see him as a star, and then it's totally fine if he keeps climbing 1 rung at a time season after season. But if your hope is that he's a star then, yes, taking 2 more years to hit the majors would be a disappointment. Wallner reached the majors before he had to be put on the 40-man. If Lee reaches it this year he'd accomplish that as well. Stars generally don't wait until their 3rd option year to reach the majors. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's the truth. If the expectation is Rodriguez is a star we should be expecting him to step foot between the lines at Target Field in 2024 or early 2025.

Judging the "speed" of his progression really is about the likelihood to reach his ceiling. Taking until his 3rd option year to really earn a chance would mean he's likely continued to struggle with his contact rates and hasn't made "the jump." Once prospects of his stature hit AA the expectations are that they aren't going station to station year by year through the upper minors. Kepler's deal and Buxton's availability concerns shouldn't play any role whatsoever in Emma's progression beyond possibly providing openings on the MLB roster. A 2025 September call up for his first MLB action would be a little slow in terms of him being a possible elite player. Not overly concerning by any means, but an entire season at both AA and AAA would be a disappointment in some sense and dampen his outlook a bit. I think the hope should be a solid push for real ABs in 2025 without having our opinions of him crater if that doesn't happen.

I'm most definitely hoping you folks in the upper-80s to lower-90s prediction range are right. I'm more on Fangraphs level with a mid-80s prediction. I believe they have them pegged at 85. Tied with Cleveland. It will be a fun and interesting season to see how all the ifs turn out!

I always appreciate your breakdowns of prospects because you watch more games than I do of the younger teams, and you're always paying attention to more than just what their numbers are. So I'm counting on you to keep us all up to date on how he's looking as we get into the year!

Rodriguez is the kid I'm most fascinated by in the system. Probably the one I'll watch the most ABs for this year. He has such a sky-high ceiling that it's hard not to be excited for him, but his floor is so low it's really hard to have too much faith in him. The jump to AA will be super interesting to watch. Ball vs strike recognition is huge. It can be taught, but mostly only to an extent. Kids who have it naturally like Rodriguez seems to have a leg up on their peers from the jump. If he can tweak his approach a little and not "give away" so many at bats (in watching a handful of his games last year there were a number where he seemed overly passive to me) he could take off and blow through AA by mid-season. If he's too passive AA pitchers are going to start eating him up. Big test coming for Emma and I'm excited to see how it plays out. I love upside, and his is gigantic. I hope he puts some of the doubts about whether or not he can reach it to bed this year by dominating AA.

Just an FYI, but Lee had 567, Schobel 554, Keirsey 549, Ortega 537, Rosario 530, Severino 528, Fajardo 527, Miller 526. Those were the Twins prospects with over 500 PAs last year.

Obviously lots of factors for how predictive those things are for young players, and it's a lot of marrying human scouting/projections with the numbers. The concern with him is that he's more physically developed than most 19 year olds so the human scouting/projection read on him is that there's not much more left for him to go from a physical projection standpoint. So when you connect that with his less than ideal 90th percentile EVs it becomes a concern. There is a general progression those things take between the ages of 18 and 21, but that's tied to physical growth at those ages. So if he's already reached his physical growth peak it likely means his EVs have peaked, unless it's being held back by the swing decisions. So lots of factors going into reading that stuff. I'd assume if the Twins are really as excited as they say about him they expect his EVs to be held back by his swing decisions since they're pretty widely known to be high on exit velos when grading young players. But obviously it's all very much an educated guessing game for any 19 year old.

I certainly expect him to stick in RF for as long as he can and not become a DH type anytime soon, but the Harold Ramirez comp I saw somewhere (Fangraphs, maybe?) feels about right. Same physical stature and defensive skills and Ramirez has gradually worked his way from CF, to cOF, to 1B, to DH. If you can hit like we hope Gonzalez can hit I'm good with you being primarily a DH when you reach your late 20s after having bounced around the field for a bit. Never going to be a defensive plus, but as long as he can remain a reasonable defensive option for a while his bat will have the chance to carry him.

It's not 0?

Yeah, I'm not saying 1 way or another what caused his BABIP decrease. People have been claiming Kepler is "unlucky" for a decade because of his when the truth is he just doesn't hit the ball well enough. Gonzalez's 90th percentile EV is very concerning. And could very well be because he hits a lot of bad pitches. I'm not making any predictions on him. He has potential. But he also has some pretty bright red flags at this point of his career. He's a very wide variance prospect. I hope the Twins, or whoever he's with, are able to help him reach the top part of his outcome spectrum. He'd be very fun to watch if he reaches his peak. But he has a long ways to go, and real work to do. I look forward to following his journey.

If Terry Francona openly states someone had to go because they were just so bad for his clubhouse that person is automatically out for any team I'm running.

Yeah, I'm not going to say Raya has an MLB career ahead of him yet. At least not as a starter. Skenes is going to debut this year. Early. Probably has a 50/50 shot at being in the opening day rotation for Pittsburgh. We're not sure Raya is even a AA starter yet. We were pretty positive Jordan Balazovic had an MLB future at this point, too. He was a top 100 prospect at Raya's age. He's not looking like he has an MLB career at this point. Raya has a long way to go yet. Skenes is walking through the door. I very much like the look of Raya right now, but until he clears a lineup a 2nd time at any point in professional baseball we need to slow down on him. It feels very weird for me to be the "slow down on these prospects" guy this offseason. I'm typically on the other side. But I think the Julien, Wallner, Lewis trio in Minneapolis last year has gotten us a little to excited about what all these guys are going to be.

It sounds like his future is likely 100% dependent on his bat. And that is very likely nearly 100% dependent on his plate discipline. I love guys that can get the barrel to the ball in all areas of the zone. But if you're not able to make pitchers throw it in the zone you're negating your own ability. All of his numbers are tough to really decipher because of his lack of discipline. Low BABIP isn't necessarily bad luck. It could be a result of a lot of really poor contact because you're swinging at everything and hitting 6 hoppers to infielders or soft flies to the OF. His concerning exit velo numbers discussed by other prospect evaluators could be a victim of the same thing. He feels very much like Miranda, with maybe a little more pop in his bat. The Twins minor league staff were able to get Miranda to be more selective at AA and his performance took off. If they're able to do the same with Gonzalez he would likely have the same sort of results, and if there's a little more power in his bat than Miranda has it'd be very exciting. It sounds like he has the core, mostly unteachable bat to ball skills that big time hitters have, and that's a great place to be starting from. Now we'll see how well he's able to adjust his approach to really bring out the most in his bat to ball skills. Will be fun to follow him through the system. Or fun to see a big time starting pitcher come to the Twins in return for him (and others) if that's the route they go.

Not sure Skenes is the guy you want to put up against Raya right now. Skenes not debuting in the first few weeks of the season (to make him eligible to get the Pirates an extra pick down the road) would be a disappointment for him while Raya has a super small chance of debuting at any point in 2024. Their timelines are very different right now.

I'm just going to say Puka not staying up late anymore is quite different than him changing how he ran routes or got off the line or any other part of actually playing WR. If the Twins need Carlos Santana to come in and fix how late guys stay up they need to quit talking about Correa, Buxton, and Lopez as leaders. Yes, veteran leadership to show guys how to prepare is important. Not disagreeing at all. Creating a good clubhouse with guys who are capable of preparing on their own without heavy-handed leadership from the coaching staff is important, and veterans tend to drive that by showing the young guys how they go about their business. Not disagreeing with that. What I disagree with is that Santana is going to come in and change anyone's hitting. I'm not disagreeing that having smart hitters around to talk hitting is useful, but you stated that the Twins were going to have better overall quality of at bats this year and want to tie that largely to Santana. I just think you're overselling his, or any player's, impact on that. Just like Turner isn't going to suddenly change the quality of at bat in Toronto. Boston had a worse wRC+ in 2023 with Turner than they did in 2022 without him. Their BB% and K% were nearly identical year over year. Turner didn't seem to make any drastic changes there. Milwaukee's wRC+ went down significantly, but Santana was only there half the year. It's good to have these guys on your team, but expecting them to make team wide, noticeable differences is just a bridge too far for me. I'm glad he brings leadership, and a good approach at the plate, but I'd much rather have a guy who performs better than Santana is likely to at this stage than someone who can talk hitting. If his ability to talk hitting is what you want just hire him as a coach and get a better player in the lineup. The Twins have enough leaders, what they need is more talent.