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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I'm not assuming that at all. I'm saying I'd have given up the "absolute haul." I'd trade anyone in the system not named Walker Jenkins. I'd trade Julien. You're assuming the Twins were willing to give that up and still couldn't get that. And if Seattle wouldn't do it Miami certainly might have. I started with Polanco and Lee already in that post and I'd add Festa without question who people seem to think is some sort of superstar prospect. I'd add Rodriguez without thinking twice. I'm not assuming anything you say I am, I'm openly stating I'd give up what it takes to get that asset.
  2. chpettit19
    If you believe Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Brooks Lee are good enough to hit 2 hole in the playoffs more power to ya, I don't. Julien isn't replacing Polanco in any way shape or form. They were both already in the starting lineup. Topa can be lights out and still not be anywhere near valuable enough to make up for any real amount of loss of the 2 hole hitter in the lineup, that's just the nature of relief pitching. DeSclafani hasn't been good for years, has a questionable elbow, and is worse than the guy he's pushing out of the rotation (Varland). "Used accordingly?" We'll see about that, I guess. Again, Julien isn't replacing Polanco. I don't know why people keep saying that. If opening day had been 1/28 Julien would've lead off and Polanco would've been hitting right behind him (assuming a righty starter). Julien having a higher WAR than Polanco doesn't matter when they're both in the starting lineup. We'll just have to agree to disagree that replacing your 2 hole hitter with a "depth piece" starter you don't expect to even last the season and a reliever makes this team better.
  3. chpettit19
    Which is totally fine. But Jorge Polanco was going to hit 2 hole on this team. I know we're all excited about Lee, but taking the 2 hole hitter out of a playoff roster because we hope Brooks Lee has "all the tools" isn't something I'm excited about, I'm sorry.
  4. chpettit19
    You questioned their ability to get a better pitcher for Polanco plus money plus prospects before and wanted examples. Who's the 115 OPS+ bat they're bringing in that they were just 5 mil short on? But that other poster's point was that the Twins couldn't get any of the young Seattle pitching because contending teams need to get the best player in the deal, and not prospects and cash. If contending teams can get prospects and cash then you and that other poster don't really have an argument for why the Twins couldn't have been the team to give up prospects and cash. Polanco and Lee plus cash would give you an awfully solid starting point for a much better pitcher than Anthony DeSclafani.
  5. chpettit19
    I think Varland ends up in the pen in September again, but he's most likely in AAA to start the year waiting for a starter to go down and stepping into the rotation. I don't like that we're filling the 5th spot with a cheap veteran. I have no idea what realistic options there were to fill that spot with a better arm, but I don't want anymore of these mid-30s veterans where the hope is they can get you 5 innings a start with a 4.5 ERA. This team is supposed to be competing for playoff wins, they need to move past these veteran fixer uppers. Prospects are important. He's a nice one, depending on who you ask. No problem with him. But I don't like making the major league team worse to add him when they should be pushing to make the major league team better. Is Gonzalez really better than Kala'i Rosario? I'm not sleeping on anyone, but chances are he's nothing. He's not a top 30 system prospect. Of course he could develop into something as a reliever, but, again, I'm not interested in that in return for the 2 hole hitter on a playoff team. 23 year old A ball pitchers with "live arms" aren't exactly rare or hard to acquire. 5 million is nothing. If they wouldn't sign someone for 20, but now they will I'm not impressed, sorry. Yes, I'm waiting and expecting more, but if 5 million is whats been holding them back it's actually a negative to me, not a positive. I have no interest in Buck as a DH with Castro and Gordon in CF. If he's too hurt to play CF he needs to go on the IL. I'm excited for Brooks Lee, but he wasn't very good in AAA so I'm not going to expect him to OPS+ 115 or better in the majors. This trade significantly hurt the offense today. But I expect more moves so we'll see what the team looks like opening day. I think the value was solid for Polanco. But it hurt the 2024 team and I'm not interested in lowering both the floor and ceiling of this team even more than losing Sonny and Kenta already did. They have more work to do and I believe they'll make more moves. But until those moves are made I don't like this deal.
  6. chpettit19
    MLBtraderumors has the Twins banking an extra 5.25 mil on this deal so I'm not sure the cash is all that useful unless they're planning on going above where they were. Gonzalez is top-100 on 1 list, but is he on any others? Fangraphs had him at 40+ FV so we'll see if they've changed their mind on him. Bowen wasn't in the top 30 for Seattle but he's going to be top 20 for the Twins? Not buying that at all. In a vacuum I think this is fair value for Polanco. I want nothing to do with DeSclafani types on the Twins rotation anymore, but such is life. I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. Gonzalez has some very nice reviews on his bat to ball skills, but is apparently the polar opposite of Emma and swings at everything. Probably why he wasn't good after his promotion to A+ ball, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements they can make there. They got Miranda to cut down his swing crazy approach so hopefully they can do it again. Bowen is a likely reliever flier so we'll see there. Overall it's a solid return for 2 years of Polanco with his recent injuries. That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.
  7. chpettit19
    5.25 mil isn't much of a cash infusion so I sure hope they're looking to spend more than just that to continue building the roster.
  8. chpettit19
    Why would the Twins? These statements about contending teams needing to come away with the best player in the deal are suggesting the Twins aren't a contending team. Are the Twins not also trying to contend?
  9. chpettit19
    I don't care about decent relievers, 6 million dollar throw-ins, or guys who are top-100 prospects on 1 list, but getting 40+ FV grades on others when im trying to compete this season. I don't want any "5th starters" in the sense you're talking about. There's no rule that says the 5th guy in your rotation has to be worse than the 1st guy. You're allowed to have 5 really good starting pitchers when you're trying to actually compete. DeSclafani and Bundy types have no business in rotations of contending teams. As I said in that post, I don't think they got less than Polanco was worth. I just would prefer to be the team giving up the top-100 prospect and 6 million dollar throw-in to get the best player in the deal instead of making my team worse in the deal. But hopefully subsequent moves make up for what they lost tonight. But there's a difference between thinking they didn't get enough value for Polanco and thinking that future value isn't what the team needed.
  10. chpettit19
    I have no idea, but we don't know that it isn't. If DeSclafani is worth having in a starting rotation why couldn't Seattle have been that team? Miami has openly stated they're willing to trade pitching for hitting, and they are always cheap so are into prospects, why couldn't they be a possibility? Would Milwaukee trade Burnes for Polanco+ since they need offense and likely don't want to lose Burnes for nothing after the year? There's always possibilities. And if it's not available I'd much rather have just kept Polanco to hit in the 2 hole and OPS+ 115 than trade him for a middle reliever and a guy who belongs nowhere near a playoff rotation at this point in his career.
  11. chpettit19
    DeSclafani isn't a replacement level starter, and even if he is I don't want him. He shouldn't be in the rotation for a team trying to win baseball games in 2024. Polanco would've hit 2 hole on opening day. If you want to bank on Lee stepping in and producing a 115+ OPS+ be my guest, but considering he was at about 78 in AAA I'm not going to bet on it. DH is a spot in the lineup. I don't care about just 2B. The Twins just traded one of their 4 or 5 best hitters and replaced him with a guy barely holding onto his job as a #5 starter and a 33 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season. They made the 2024 team worse tonight. But, as I said, they still have the chance to improve it with more moves. Again, as I said and you just ignored, I would've added prospects and money to Polanco to get a better arm. It's not "just naysaying" because I don't just blindly fall in love with a borderline top-100 prospect because he's on 1 top-100 list. Have you read the scouting reports about him? Even the good ones have worries about his plate discipline and ability to stay in shape. He's 20 years old and they already think he can't stay in shape. He gets 40+ FV on Fangraphs. That's a replacement level player. You like the trade. That's totally fine. I don't. Also totally fine. But my opinion on it isn't "just naysaying." It's thought out and reasoned.
  12. chpettit19
    Not surprised to see Polanco dealt. Not surprised he went to Seattle. Expected both things. Disappointed that the best pieces coming back are a 33 year old reliever and 20 year old prospect with plate discipline concerns and limited projectability. Yes, I know he's a top-100 guy on MLB's list, but Fangraphs has him as a 40+ FV guy. I'm with @DocBauer and would've much rather seen the Twins be the ones to send money and prospect(s) to get a legit arm for the rotation. DeSclafani accomplishes the goal of pushing Varland into the Ober role (I don't think they're putting him in the pen to start the year), but he's no better than the Happ/Shoemaker/Archer/Bundy signings I hoped we were past. I fully expect more moves to be made, and hopefully that makes this move look better. But, to me, all they did tonight was turn an 87 win team into an 84 win team. Yes, Julien is likely taking on the 2B job, but there's no way they were planning on Buxton being a fulltime DH again, and Polanco was going to be the DH and 2 hole hitter on this team. They turned their 2 hole hitter into a prospect who flopped in A+ ball and a middle reliever. I don't think they got too little value for Polanco, but I don't see how this is anything but a downgrade for the 2024 team. And I'm not a fan of any move that takes a playoff team and makes it worse. But, again, I fully expect them to make more moves so they have the chance to do some things to improve the team from here on out. Let's hope they do it.
  13. chpettit19
    It will be interesting to see what Baltimore does with Holliday and if they bring him up early to chase another pick with back to back rookie of the year winners. Will then also be interesting to see how the Twins handle Jenkins as he nears the majors and see if they chase an extra pick by being aggressive with his final promotion. Would certainly be a change from their typical way of treating prospects, but if you have a 19/20 year old showing they're ready for the bigs it should cause you to change some things. I think the Holliday path is likely our best case scenario, even if it'd be super cool to see him go ARod on things and debut in his first full season. That doesn't really seem possible. But putting himself on the doorstep would be so huge for this franchise. A legit debate about him opening 2025 with the Twins would be so cool. Shouldn't be the expectation, but man it'd be cool. I think a September callup in 2025 is a pretty reasonable idea if our hope is that he's a superstar type player. Anything beyond that and he'd still certainly be a very nice piece, but would be slightly disappointing. The Jacksons (Holliday and Chourio) should be our hope, but maybe not expectations, for Walker. 2 phenoms set to debut as 20 year olds in 2024. I'm hoping Walker can debut as a 20 year old in 2025. Everything I've read about him, and all the interviews I've seen with him, have certainly painted pictures of him being a really good kid with his head on straight and the work ethic to make his dreams come true quickly. I'm excited to follow his journey.
  14. chpettit19
    I don't think Detroit's pitching is great, but if you're going to bank on the idea that the Twins will be better because they're young and will improve don't you have to be a little worried about Detroit? Matt Manning is 26 and had a 3.58 ERA in 15 starts last year. Reese Olsen is 24 and had a 3.99 ERA in 18 starts last year. Casey Mize is 26 and had a 3.71 ERA in 30 starts in 2021 before getting hurt in 2022 and missing 2023. Tarik Skubal is 27 and had a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts last year after having a 3.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2022. Jack Flaherty has been really good in the past, but is certainly not the big name he was when he first came up. Many are upset the Twins let Maeda get away. Former Twin prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long is 26 and had a wonderful debut last year with a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts. Again, not predicting the Tigers win the division or anything, but if we're all excited about the Twins because of their young talent and the expectation that they improve I don't think we should be acting like there's not a real chance Detroit takes a step forward this year. If Keith and/or Jung can do what Julien and Wallner did last year the Tigers could have a pretty nice top of the lineup with them Torkelson, Carpenter, and Greene. Mark Canha is a solid MLB hitter. There's a AL Central contender in there if you squint a little.
  15. chpettit19
    If he's not open to moving to CF or LF I don't see him as a fit. If he'd move to LF and they like McCormick in CF then they could have some interest in him. But Dana Brown says they'd like speed specifically, and that's not exactly Kepler's calling card even if he isn't slow.
  16. chpettit19
    I wouldn't bet on any team in the division overtaking the Twins, but there's a lot of young talent on all the squads. Chicago is in a bit of a no-man's land situation as they have one of the best players in the division (Luis Robert), but are just a complete mess overall as an organization. The Royals, Guardians, and Tigers all have some young guys that have shown real MLB talent with a handful of more talent on the way. Detroit and KC have at least tried to improve on the edges of their teams with some veteran additions, but any of those 3 teams could see their young talent take steps forward and give the Twins a real run for the division. Still more likely to be the worst division in baseball, but it should be an improved terrible division. As for the Tigers alone, Colt Keith and Jace Jung hitting the ground running this season could really change their offense. Keith especially probably holds a lot of their fortunes in his hands.
  17. chpettit19
    Teams don't use BTV to decide on value. Alcantara won the Cy Young 2 years ago, is 28 years old, and never tops 21 mil in annual cost over the next 4 years while much lesser pitchers are getting much more than that. Lucas Giolito just got 19.5 per year while Alcantara is making 17 each of the next 2 years. Tyler Glasnow is a much bigger injury risk and he just got 27+ per year. Frankie Montas didn't make a start last year and just got 16 guaranteed with a 20 mil option for next year. According to your trade above the Twins could get Alcantara plus a "6 value" player for Kyle Farmer. If the Twins can get Alcantara, Dax Fulton, and Joe Mack for Kyle Farmer they should do that before the clock hits noon in MN today.
  18. chpettit19
    If San Diego is involved and serious about getting Luzardo there's very little chance the Twins end up with him. They aren't trading Luzardo and Alcantara in the same deal. Assuming the idea that Alcantara has negative value right now (I don't think that's true) why would you use him to lower the package you could receive for Luzardo who's likely your best trade asset? If they're that tight on money that they need to trade them both they'd at least do it in separate deals to maximize the return for Luzardo while getting basically nothing in return for Alcantara. If Alcantara actually has negative value the Twins, or any team, should absolutely deal for him right now. Why are we still acting like TJS ends careers? Tyler Mahle just got 22 million for 2 years coming off TJS and he's nowhere near the pitcher Alcantara is. If they're willing to sell Alcantara for peanuts every team in baseball would be lined up at their door to take him off their hands.
  19. chpettit19
    Eh, as of today I wouldn't want either of them playing for the Twins in 2024, but it's mostly six of one a half dozen of the other to me. Bubba is faster and right handed. Keirsey has shown a little more with the bat at AAA, but is a year older. Neither is a guy I want to rely on at this point. But I'm glad to have both in the system as I think you can never have too many athletes.
  20. chpettit19
    Yeah, I wouldn't even bet on him being on the 40-man at the end of spring. I think there's room for more than just Castro on a playoff roster, though. They carry 14 or 15 position players for that. And with how they pinch hit and platoon Castro is likely to be used pretty quickly when a lefty reliever comes in. Keirsay is lefthanded, but I agree they're very similar players. I don't know what "just another outfielder" means, but being able to play all 3 outfield positions is a useful talent. I'm not defending this signing or praising it or anything. It's a bottom of the 40-man flier on January 24th. It's not worth having strong feelings about one way or the other. I'm just spit balling ways he could be of use.
  21. chpettit19
    I was curious about this too so I looked up the Rangers roster and was reminded that Leody Taveras was their CFer and he's quite good so I'm not sure how we should read that when it comes to his defense. If he's a legit CFer it's certainly better than if he's really a LFer. From what I can find quickly he was given 50 arm grades and 55 fielding grades coming up so there's a decent chance he can truly play CF.
  22. chpettit19
    You really think someone like Thompson isn't a better threat to steal a base, thus making the pitcher pay more attention to him, or score on a double from 1st than Julien? And chances are Julien was already pulled, or would be pulled, for a pinch hitter when the other team brings in their lefty anyways. Why isn't Farmer the hitter? Why are we only provided with the 2 worst options on the bench? I'm not saying this is some sort of great signing, or that he's some key piece to a championship run, but when you're carrying 14 or 15 position players in the playoffs there's room for a guy who can swipe a bag whenever you need it. The '04 Red Sox sure are glad they had Roberts.
  23. chpettit19
    Best case scenario is Terrence Gore/Dave Roberts type pinch runner for the playoffs. No real value during the regular season because they're just not worth carrying as the 13th guy when you use bench players as much as the Twins do as regular starters.
  24. chpettit19
    Would be awfully surprised if he makes it through spring on the 40-man. Wouldn't be as surprised if he makes it through waivers with the Twins as they'll be sending him through at a more chaotic time for rosters than now, but I'll be very surprised if he makes this team. The Twins rotate players way too much to have a speed only guy on the roster. But he is ideal for getting through waivers and then claiming a playoff roster spot to be a late inning steal guy. Or maybe they carry him on the 40-man hoping they never need him during the regular season. But with Rodriguez already on the 40-man you probably don't want another guy who isn't likely to be a real MLB contributor on the 40-man.
  25. chpettit19
    Probably a pricey taxi ride there. Maybe Uber has a long distance discount rate?
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