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mnfireman

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Everything posted by mnfireman

  1. mnfireman
    I was referring to Arraez's WAR. At FanGraphs Julien had 2.8 fWAR, Arraez 3.4. At 150 games Julien would have 3.9 fWAR, so yes he easily replaced Arraez's value last season.
  2. mnfireman
    Depends on which site you use for WAR....FanGraphs has him at 3.4 fWAR last season - the same as Willy Adames (gets most of his value from his defense).
  3. mnfireman
    Looking at his splits, Julien seemed to be get walk "happy" later in the season: 4/1 - 7/31 - .298/.386/.536 (.922 OPS) 10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio. 11.8 BB%, 30.8 K%, .407 BAbip 8/1 - 10/1 - .223/.376/.369 (.745 OPS) 6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio. 19.8 BB%, 32.0 k%, .326 BAbip Whether this was due to batting lead-off more often, league adjustment, or change in approach by him, his average and power were way down after August 1 while his BB% was way up. His K% remained roughly equal. His BAbip regressed to closer to league average (.297), but good things happened when he put the ball in play. Here are his splits with 2 strikes - .147/.299/.199 (.498 OPS) League avg - .172/.249/.273 (.522 OPS) Here are fullcount splits - .119/.485./.220 (.708 OPS) League avg - .191/.454/.325 (.779 OPS) He has shown that he has a good eye at the plate, league average BB% is 8.6%, and that he can hit the ball hard (44.9 hard hit %), but he needs to improve his 2 strike hitting, and as previously stated, his in the zone contact rate.
  4. mnfireman
    Agree about changing the two-strike approach of most, if not all, Twins batters - but that's a subject for a different discussion. Hitting the ball hard generally leads to good things because the fielder can't react as quickly and a simple "gapper" like the Buxton example makes it to the wall for extra bases instead of being cut off for a single, or the fielder gets caught on the in-between hop and can't make the play like the Wallner example.
  5. mnfireman
    Pags, Knobby and Herbie turning two and Dazzle and Puck running them down. Black Jack, Big Bird, Big Train and Bedrock mowing them down and Chili hitting them out on their way to the '91 WS...
  6. mnfireman
    Dazzle, Puck and Bruno catching fly balls and The Rat throwing over to Herbie on grounders hit off of the Flying Dutchman, Sweet Music, Senor Smoke, The Terminator and even Lefty on their way to the '87 WS...
  7. mnfireman
    Unfortunately, the younger guys (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner and to a lesser extent Kirilloff, Larnach and maybe Miranda) will get a better return. Also, unfortunately, Buxton's health will play into how many PA's some of those guys get - if he's healthy and plays mostly CF, the others can get PA's at DH, if he is the everyday DH, they don't. Maybe Polanco can copy Carew and move from 2B to 1B and can stay healthy and productive. Might be worth a shot.
  8. mnfireman
    Yes, my bad. At that time it was 73/91. Currently: Beltre - 94/96 97.9% Mauer - 79/96 82.3% Helton - 78/96 81.3% Wagner - 75/96 78.1%
  9. mnfireman
    Mauer continues to get votes!! 91 voters accounted for and he trails only Beltre. Beltre - 89/91 97.8% Mauer - 74/91 81.3% Helton - 73/81 80.2% Wagner - 70/91 76.9% Sheffield (64/91, 70.3%), Beltran (58/91, 63.7%) and Jones (56/91, 61.5%) are the only others above 50%. There are some very head-scratching ballots being submitted.
  10. mnfireman
    So, out of all the back and forth all day you think I am bemoaning the quality of Ryan and Ober? Far from it. I am saying if all the team gets out of them is 130 innings each then the season is not going to be successful. That is only 22 - 25 starts each, that leaves a lot of starts and a lot of innings to be covered by inexperienced or cast-off arms. Disagree with me if you like, but I would rather see 160 or more innings out of each of those 2 this season, that equates to good health, which should equate to team wins.
  11. mnfireman
    So don't count them!! You also then need to remove them from counting numbers because they changed teams, so the percentages stay roughly the same. I included them because their innings totaled over 130 & 145. 130 innings at 5 innings a start is 26 starts, at 6 innings a start it's 22 starts. 162 games in a season divided by 5 spots is 32/33 starts per spot. If Ryan and Ober each get 130 innings, who's covering those missing 12 - 20 starts? If you can get Scherzer, Verlander or Montgomery to cover them great!! Otherwise its going to be lesser options than Ryan or Ober. We seem to be forgetting that Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dallas Keuchel among others have started significant games over the last several years to cover missing starts by injured pitchers.
  12. mnfireman
    Texas had 7 if you include Scherzer and Montgomery, Houston had 5 if you include Verlander, Baltimore had 4 if you include Flaherty and Dodgers have 2 if include Lynn. Yes these were in-season pick ups, but they took the ball every 5th day and pitched in the play-offs.
  13. mnfireman
    Dropping my 145 innings to 144, there were 70 MLB pitchers that hit that mark, 4 from the Twins. Including totals from payers that were traded in-season, 38 of 70 (54.3%) pitched for play-off teams. Dropping it to 130 innings pitched, 41 of 86 (47.7%) pitched for play-off teams. And if you include the last 4 teams eliminated from the play-offs, 47 of 70 (67.1%) pitched 140 innings, and 56 of 86 (65.1%) pitched 130 innings. 15 innings is 3 starts, and I would rather have Ryan or Ober make those 3 starts instead of a Dallas Keuchel-type. Starting pitching wins games, and quality starting pitching gets you into the play-offs. So, I disagree that 130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is considered a success (the + leaves too much open) and stick by my 160 innings, too many innings to replace otherwise.
  14. mnfireman
    130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season, GOOD play-off teams generally have 3 or 4 guys that give them at least 145 innings, covering extra innings with sub-par pitching does not work.
  15. mnfireman
    I know this post is about Canterino and Paddack, but if the team can't get 160+ innings each from Lopez, Ryan and Ober, it won't matter who fills the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation.
  16. mnfireman
    Twins ERA in innings 7-9 was 2.55. The slash line was .233/.317/.402 (.719 OPS). I don't think the bullpen was the weakest link most fans remembered.
  17. mnfireman
    High school wrestler mentality...
  18. mnfireman
    It's official - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/blue-jays-kevin-kiermaier-reportedly-closing-in-on-reunion.html
  19. mnfireman
    Not according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs also shows him with only 2 minor league options left. But right now I pencil him in as #5, first to go to AAA if the team signs a "better" option, first to be recalled due to injury or ineffectiveness.
  20. mnfireman
    So, Helton and his 2 DUI's doesn't get your vote, nor does Jones and his domestic assault, but Sheffield does. If you are going to sit on your high horse casting judgments you at least need to be consistent. Per Wikipedia: In 1986, Sheffield was arrested alongside his uncle, Dwight Gooden, and fellow Tampa baseball player Vance Lovelace and charged with resisting arrest with violence and battery on a police officer. He pleaded no contest in January 1987 and was sentenced to two years probation.[35] In October 1987, while still on probation, Sheffield was arrested and charged with driving while intoxicated and related offenses. Those charges were eventually consolidated into one reckless driving charge. His probation was extended for an additional 18 months.[36] On December 5, 1993, Sheffield was arrested after being clocked driving a Ferrari Testarossa 110 miles per hour (180 km/h) on Interstate 4 in Florida and failing a breathalyzer test. In May 1994, he pleaded no contest to reckless driving and was sentenced again to nine months of probation and 40 hours of community service.[37]
  21. mnfireman
    He built up his body pretty good doing that rehab though...
  22. mnfireman
    Jorge Polanco - 2021 (145) & 2019 (150) Only one player, but 2X The team did have 4 players start 52 of 60 (140/162) games in 2020 - Rosario, Polanco, Sano, and Cruz. Plus Gonzalez started 51 of 60 (138/162).
  23. mnfireman
    Well his 162 game projection is 39 HR, 132 RBI and a slash-line of .307/.364/.548 (.913 OPS)... I think 30-35 HR, 100-110 RBI and slash line of .300/.400/.500 (.900 OPS) is a fair projection, maybe a little high, but fair.
  24. mnfireman
    Yeah, so far it looks like there are some real ***-clowns who have been given HOF voting status. 1 used his ballot to to vote solely for Beltre, 1 used his ballot to vote for Manny and ARoid, and 1 used his ballot to to vote for Beltre, Rollins and Utley. 1 voter named Hunter on his ballot, but not Mauer (sorry Torii).There is also another voter who used his ballot to solely vote for Beltre and Mauer, but at least he's on the right track. And let's not get into the Manny and ARoid voters...
  25. mnfireman
    He has a No-Trade clause....and then he gets 10 & 5 rights. He is not going anywhere unless he approaches the team for a trade to a team of HIS choice, and that team would then have to be willing to give the Twins what they want.
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