IndianaTwin

Thanks, Bean, for this summary. Looking at his game logs and pitch counts, he looks like another (see Raya above) where they have used a very structured buildup of days off and pitch counts. At SABR this year, when the Twins braintrust described their pitcher development, they spoke of building an individualized program for each person after the player has spent a year in the system and they've had a chance to gather data. It seems logical that they would prioritize keeping the highest-regarded guys closest to their structure, which seems to speak positively as to how they view Prielipp. His results weren't top-notch at Wichita, though he did have a 4:1 k:bb and struck out 10.7/9. But given that they finished him with four starts at St. Paul, it seems to point to beginning the year at St. Paul and being near the top of the SP list after whatever's left of Lopez/Ryan/Ober/SWR and then Bradley/Abel/Matthews, etc. If that puts him somewhere around No. 10, that points to him potentially getting the call for at least a couple starts if effective in St. Paul and a potential Liriano treatment if he's banked good starts and the team can get some effective innings out of him in a pennant race. I could live with that for 2026.

I was once going through the rack of game-used jerseys at the team store, lamenting that they cost too much for my budget. Then there was one that had my surname, thanks to the roster presence of a middle reliever with that name. I bought it and wore it to Puckett's HOF induction ceremony, where a guy said, "You must be related to (said reliever), because nobody but a family member has one of his jerseys." It's not an uncommon name, so I'm guessing I could wear it to a game these days and hardly a person there would know it's an actual player.

Reminds one of the Uecker story, from his days of doing games with Cosell, who apparently didn't appreciate Uecker too much. Uecker: Some story contradicting Cosell. Cosell: Don't be so truculent. You probably don't even know what truculent means. Uecker: Sure I do. If I borrowed your pickup, that would be the truc-u-lent.

You had me at "went to college in Iowa." -"FromIowaButLiveInIndianaTwin" was too long to be a screen name. But seriously, Indian Hills is a top-notch program to have been part of the journey. From Wikipedia: Now known as the Warriors, the baseball team has made 12 appearances at the JUCO World Series in Grand Junction, CO. Since the program's inception in 1961, Indian Hills has totaled more than 120 alumni who signed or were drafted to play professional baseball. As of 2022, 10 alumni are either playing or coaching at the professional level.

First column is 2024, second is 2025. Raya may indeed end up in the bullpen, but he's been lengthened as a starter. I suspect the last number of outings in 2025 were about "load management" as they were about a transition to the pen. The last games were very structured. First it was 2.2 innings (the 30-pitch game and then five days later, then several outings spaced four days apart and then three games spaced three days apart. I do agree with your takes on the others.

Blue Jays? Orioles? Cardinals? I love trains, and I live in a town with multiple tracks because it's near a major yard, so I'm used to having to wait pretty regularly. But I love riding them. Mrs. IT and I are finalizing a trip on the Southwest Chief from Chicago to L.A., timed to coordinate with Iowa basketball games at UCLA and USC. I guess that means my favorite birds to watch are Hawks. And yeah, the art. I've wondered too how people pull off putting paint on train cars. I'm not smart enough to know where there are gang markings or other inappropriate stuff, but it sure looks like some of those folks are pretty gifted artists.

I would consider a split contract that pays on the scale of $1.4M for days on the MLB roster and an above-average rate for days on the minor league roster. If I'm understanding it correctly (and someone will correct me if I'm not), that doesn't tie up the 40-man spot, but keeps him as the known-quantity option for addition later. If he has comfort with the organization, that might be the guarantee he needs. I'm not sure that he'd get a major league offer elsewhere, so the above-average minor league rate could be attractive.

I didn't go to the work of checking this, but it would be interesting to see how many debuts happened after July 31 compared to previous years. Like you, I'd assume there were significantly more. Comparatively speaking the bullpen makeup seemed relatively stable in the first two-thirds of the year.

Which is why I've never been so overly anxious about there being too many LH batting outfielders on the roster. All else being equal, as long Buxton is in CF, my preference would be for the two best hitters among other outfielders to be LH (or switch hitter). (That's not a Larnach-specific post, but rather one about the overall angst people seem to have on this topic.)

Larnach's reduced overall numbers this year were mainly a reflection in a changed usage pattern. His OPS against righties (.759) this year was exactly his career average. What brought his overall numbers down was that he had 21 percent of his plate appearances against lefties, whereas prior to that he had only had 17 percent of his PAs against lefties. In his best year (2024), less than 6 percent of his PAs were against lefties. There's still a significant platoon split, but his OPS against lefties this year (.608) was somewhat better than the .571 he had accumulated against lefties in prior years. I agree that it's borderline on tendering him, but a lot may come down to whether they think there is more improvement in the tank against lefties.

They used 37 pitchers, including Ober, Paddack, Matthews, Lopez and Bradley, who only started; SWR, Ryan and Festa, who each appeared once as a reliever; and Fitzgerald, Clemens, Bride and Castro, who each relieved as position players. So overall, 25 "traditional" relief pitchers. They used 38 pitchers in 2022, but I didn't look to see which ones only started and how many position players were used.

Indeed, his career seems to have already had enough ACTS. It’s pretty much PETERed out and left his chances in the JOHN.

It seems they can err on the side of being generous with protecting people. They only have 39 on the 40-man right now, including Roden as their only 60-day IL guy. Subtract free agents Vazquez and Cabrera and they are down to 37, even before looking at dropping the Gaspers and Mirandas of the world.

A few tidbits on Ryan's perspective, from the postgame interview Friday night at: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6667145/2025/09/27/joe-ryan-twins-start-trade-offseason/ “At the end of the day, I see the big picture and the decisions they’ve made, and I think they’re good decisions and the trajectory of the organization is positive,” Ryan said. “I think they’re doing a really good job of working with what we have and making the right decisions on the field right now and putting a little more pressure on teams. The young guys that are stepping up, obviously, there have been a couple of rocky outings here and there, but for the most part, guys like Taj (Bradley) and Mick (Abel), those guys look really good.” Whereas the Twins never got close to trading Ryan in July — multiple team sources said Boston made an incomplete offer only 15 minutes before the deadline... “I felt like I was in shock for a couple of weeks after (the deadline), and then it kind of settled in,” Ryan said. “(My future) is so far out of my control. But it seems like the team is making good decisions from the front office and coaching staff down to give ourselves a chance to win a couple more ballgames. … I think the team’s going to be in a really good spot going forward. “Hopefully we’ll make a couple of other moves and see where that goes, but I’m not too worried about that.” Ryan has obviously learned the business side of things, but to me, these feel more like the quotes of a player planning/wanting/expecting to be around than a player expecting to be traded. They seem especially noteworthy from a guy perceived to be expecting to leave.

What would be a common time period before it wears off and a new injection would be needed?

Thanks. Did you mean you think the top SEVEN are for sures? (Not questioning, just clarifying.)

Speaking of Rule 5, where can I find a list of Twins prospects who would be Rule 5 eligible if not added to the 40-man?

Two of us saying, "I heard this is going to happen," makes it a fact on the Internet, right? 😀

People are down on Falvey (not unreasonably), so it's hard for some to see any possibilities for next year, but I think yours is an excellent take, particularly in your reminder that directions change (as they should). I wish I could find the article, but I read quotes from Falvey this week where his words when talking about Lopez, Ryan and Ober sounded like an intent to build on them. It would have been easy for his response to the question to be, "We really like those three, but we're also pleased with how Abel and Bradley do this and how Matthews and SWR to this, etc. We think we can rely on our young pitchers for years to come." Instead, he used specifics in talking about what each of Lopez, Ryan and Ober bring to the table and how they would look atop a rotation. As you note, they should listen to every offer, but I read his tone as a sign of hope -- in the vein of what you are saying, that the price to actually move one would be very high. And much as I hope they keep all three, if someone does offer a massive overpay, I agree they should take it.

Also to be fair, Berrios' combined WAR for Toronto in the 1.5 seasons left on the contract was 0.9. The value he has provided to the Jays has primarily come in the time since he signed an extension, which by most accounts was unlikely to happen in Minnesota. So if you compare Berrios' 0.9 WAR to the 4.2 of SWR (so far) and whatever they get from Martin, the Twins definitely improved themselves with the trade. Additionally, the trade freed up money to use in the 21-22 offseason. There's no way to trace whether that was the money that paid for Urshela (good), Bundy (bad) or even a chunk of Correa (very good on that one-year contract), but it did give them additional flexibility that winter. Which also highlights that no trade can be completely dissected in isolation. Every trade has a context and a carryover to other decisions.

One of the things about regression to the mean is that it works both ways. It may be difficult (though certainly impossible) for Ryan to repeat generating 4.5 bWAR, for example, but it seems quite reasonable to expect more than 2.1 for Lopez and more than 1.1 for Ober if they are still on the roster. Between the three, it seems reasonable to think they will total more than 7.7 if they are still around. I actually think it could be a pretty attractive job. Expectations are not going to be high, but the potential is there to greatly exceed expectations. It seems like there are some similarities to the offseasons following 2016 and 2018.

"Pipeline" is like "Ace" in that each person has their own definition. Arguing about whether the team has achieved "Pipeline" status is about as helpful as arguing whether Lopez or Ryan is an "Ace."

"Since moving to Minnesota in 1961, only the Yankees, Astros, Cardinals, and Giants have accumulated more fWAR from primary center fielders than the Twins." When one considers that Mantle and Mays racked up some of that fWAR, that's not too shabby company.

So how do you really feel about Cabrera, Old Crow? 😀

With today's outing by SWR, the six starters went 36 innings and gave up just three runs over the last time through the rotation.