DocBauer

OK, so my opinion is a chance to pick on Brian. 😜 Not REALLY, of course, just a chance to agree and ramble a bit. As a 40 man roster, right NOW, Zack Weiss is really the only "easily removable" guy, even if he offers a little intrigue. And you're right that there are a couple of pen arms not listed here that might pay dividends at some point. Goodness knows we've seen the shuttle run at different times the past few years between St Paul and Target Field. And despite the depth that's been brought in, sometimes guys just don't perform. And we've also witnessed the DFA game where a guy is back at St Paul after the usual waiting period. Although, I have to say, there's enough "interesting" arms already on the 40 man...Funderburk and Alcala especially...that I'm not sure we're going to see the same kind of busy shuttle runs we've seen in the past, barring a rash of injuries or just awful performance. Position player wise, the trade for Margot and lost opportunity due to injury in 2023, despite great production, has pushed Helman down a notch. Prato, not quite so much, but he's still MOSTLY an INF, and the depth there is pretty crazy good. With all due respect to him, Goodrum is probably a "break glass" option. While the OP SHOULD have gone 5 deep and probably included Duarte and Henriquez as options, I've already commented on the 40 man depth regarding pitching depth as of NOW. But, unfortunately, knock on wood as much as you want, injuries and crazy stuff just HAPPENS. I have a lot of faith in Castro. But what if suddenly reverts to his Detroit days, or gets hurt? IS Martin the guy you bring up? Or do you find room for a more versatile Helman, or maybe Prato, to fill that role? What if an OF gets hurt for 60 days? (Baseball gods forgive me for even suggesting that). It's just nice to know there's a handful of guys NOT on the 40 man who have enough talent to come up and fill a spot if needed with the ability to not embarrass themselves or hurt the club. And I write all of that looking around for some solid hardwood to wrap my knuckles on until they hurt.

Sorry so late to respond, but kinda missed you here. I agree that Martin is in the conversation for playing time in 2024. Maybe a lot! Though I don't believe he was necessarily the 13th man before the Margot trade. In fact, with a good spring, that spot MIGHT have been Larnach's to lose as a part time corner OF and DH. But the OP itself is about NON ROSTER players who might make a difference. And Martin is on the 40 man already, getting time at St Paul after an abbreviated 2023, and just a call away.

While I don't like to repeat myself...feels like I'm rambling when I do, lol...I believe you are correct on Taylor's demands/wants. I'm sure he wanted a 2yr deal, but that's probably out the window now. He's seen 2 other FA CF get $10M deals for 2024 and would seem to want the same. And I don't fault him for that. But I doubt he gets it. I'm probably going to disagree that Taylor is the better fit, with all due respect to him and what he meant to the Twins in 2023. But his OPS was the 2nd best of his career, and his 21HR was a career high. I doubt he duplicates his 2023 again. And he's still a bottom of the order hitter. While Margot is also a bottom of the order hitter, with less power, he's 4yrs younger, has a ton of playing time at all 3 OF spots, is regarded as a quality defender, and actually beats Taylor in career AVG, OB, and OPS. He's also a bit better career wise against LHP. He also walks more and has K'd at nearly half of Taylor's 30% rate. For a team that is built for power and will always K a fair amount, I think his higher BB and contact rate might actually fit the lineup better. And hey, I have great appreciation for Taylor. I just think Margot might be the better fit for 2024. I also think Martin has a future with the Twins, though I'm not yet sure it's as a role player or potential starter. I'm hoping for the latter, even if it's playing multiple spots. But with only 1/3 of a season played in 2023, it might do him good to sit at AAA to begin the year and play daily for now.

I know we hear all the time about guys working hard and coming in to camp in great shape, yadda, yadda. But I just read somewhere that Vazquez did quite a bit of work on his stroke to concentrate on driving the ball harder this upcoming season. And he supposedly lost around 7lbs. Now, that's not a lot of weight, but when you're built like a small brick house, lol, that shows me he put in some good, solid work. His career quad slash line is: .257/ .306/ .378/ .684/ with a 83 OPS+ At 33yo and 2 down seasons, can he reach his career slash numbers or come close? If he can, that to ME is a HUGE season. Those kind of numbers with his defense and experience could make him very attractive to another team next offseason on what would be a 1yr deal, if the Twins want to move him. But that would also depend on the continued development of not only Camargo as the potential #2 catcher, but Winkel's growth behind him, and Cardenas and Cossetti behind them.

So basically, everything that Chpettit19 just said. But also, as pointed out by Major League Ready, the decision was made on Vazquez last offseason, presumably when the FO was still uncertain about Jeffers taking that next step. Remember that when they first took over Jason Castro was their first FA signing. They understand the value of quality catchers. And while Vazquez is perhaps overpaid considering a probable 40% play reference, Jeffers is not making much yet. And if Vazquez were moved, how much would the Twins have actually saved after they would have almost certainly had to cover part of his deal? I'm glad to have him back, with hopes his bat picks up this season closer to his career norms, but if Camargo keeps progressing, I could see Vazquez and his FINAL year being of greater appeal next offseason to someone. Roster space and $ meant the Twins could only keep 1 of Polanco or Farmer. Polanco is the better overall bat, and Farmer the better defender. But Polanco had greater trade value, was scheduled to earn about $4M more, so he made the most sense to move in order to add elsewhere. Not saying that was necessarily the RIGHT move as I can see different ways to construct the roster if it had been Polanco kept and Farmer moved in some way. For example, Polanco playing at 1B and DH would mean no Santana signing, but they'd need another utility option to team with Castro. Martin perhaps? But without re-visiting opinions on the Polanco trade, he had the most potential return value in any kind of trade. And it's nice to have Farmer back as a team leader, a quality defender across the INF, and a RH bat to face LHP, most notably working in at 2B to give Julien some days off. The Twins absolutely could use the $ mentioned previously to go a different direction here and there, though Vazquez is pretty much a sunk cost at this point. And I don't mean that as an insult to him. And maybe it comes a year too late, but, good chance Vazquez might be moved next offseason. Farmer and Kepler and DeSclafini are almost certainly gone as well. So there will be a chunk of $ coming off the books, and the likes of Camargo, Lee, Martin, SWR, Festa, Canterino, etc, etc, will have more experience, be closer to a full time ML gig, or perhaps will even have established themselves as such already. Maybe some of that $ savings will come a year to late to help considering raises expected for some guys in 2025, but I'm glad to have both Vazquez and Farmer for this season. Despite maybe being overpaid for their roles, I do think each can play an important part in the Twins 2024 success.

So yeah, very often a K is just another out. Sometimes it's an even better out. There are many times when I'd rather see a batter K instead of hitting in to an inning ending double play. But then again, I don't want back to back K's to end an inning either. And if there's a runner on 3B with less than 2 outs, I'd much rather have a fly ball than a K any day. So it works both ways. Power has proven through all of the research and analytics to be a more proven way to score runs. It's a lot easier to score runs with XB and HR power and maybe a BB, rather than try to string a series of base hits together. What you're looking to do is accept a certain amount of K's from your batters/lineup that coincides with XB and HR power along WITH solid BB numbers for a good OB%. Julien is almost a perfect example of what you're trying to achieve. He is both aggressive when he sees a pitch he believes he can hit or slug, including early in the count, but will also sit back and wait for a pitch in the zone he can handle and not swing at a pitcher's pitch. But that patience will lead to a number of 2 strike counts. At that point, he still might get a ball to hit. Or he might get the walk. Or yes, he might strike out. But 2 of those 3 are positive outcomes. So striking out, unto itself, is not necessarily a bad thing. Not does striking out mean you can't hit, are a bad hitter, or a non productive hitter. All that being said, there's striking out a lot, and then there's striking out enough to set a record. And clearly, that's NOT the kind of record the Twins wanted to set last season, nor any season. But even still, and despite a rather horrific 1st half of the season in regard to hitting inconsistencies and failure in the clutch far too often, the Twins were still in the upper half of runs scored. A little more experience from the younger players, a little better health from Buxton and Correa, and the removal of the worst K% offenders from 2023 and replacing them with guys who make better contact and K about half as much is a welcome addition to help balance the lineup.

This article seems so familiar somehow...................................LOL. But seriously, as I've stated elsewhere, I'm neither necessarily for or against signing a veteran who's still sitting out there. And if the Twins were to sign one, I don't think it would be any indictment of their young arms. Unlike the signing of Keuchel last season...who was brought in to help rest starters for the end of the season and playoffs... the Twins MIGHT be facing the opposite situation where they are concerned about the front half of the season. Consider SWR had a really rough 2023 and is changing his arm slot. So far so good. Festa may be a really nice prospect, but he's got all of 3 games at the AAA level. While I think Headrick eventually heads to the pen, he's still got some starter potential. But how much potential? While I've got a hunch we're going to see a very good Canterino this season, just when should we actually expect him to be ready to face ML hitters? So if Varland is up right away due to issues with DeSclafini, or anyone else, who do you turn to next? Who do the Twins trust TODAY to fill that role? The answer might be very different come June or July. But a veteran arm on a small, split deal...possibly even a milb deal... might be prudent to begin the season. And again, that doesn't mean the Twins don't like their prospects, but simply want a veteran option to help fill in and see if they get a nice rebound option. Think Cueto 2 years ago, But then again, maybe they really, really like the kids and trust at least a couple of them to help in the NOW and don't want to "waste" innings on a veteran arm that may or may not "turn it around". Not sure I know what the right answer is, but having an experienced, fall back option might be prudent to begin the season.

Once again, the Twins were in the top 3-5 in all of MLB for IP from their starters. And Rocco was still the manager last season. When he has good arms in the rotation, he lets them pitch until it is the right time to remove them. He does not have a quick hook. You can't have a quick hook and have your rotation at the top of the ML leader board in IP. When he has guys like Shoemaker and Archer in his rotation that are only good for 3-4 innings, 5 if you're lucky enough for them to have a good day, then Rocco has a quicker hook. Wouldn't any manager?

I'm not a betting person, but I can easily see a few opportunities to bet the overs here and there. But I fully believed the 2023 Twins were a 88-92 win team. And the 2nd half version was on pace for that. And I understand the not replacing Gray issue. But I really like the offense and pen and still believe the rotation is pretty solid and might have some decent depth. I'd bet over the 85 wins as I think this team can also be a 88-92 win team. And I'm not going to say "health permitting" because that applies to EVERYONE.

I really like the addition of Margot. I was really torn if the Twins should go for a power corner bat like Duvall, or focus more on a viable CF option knowing Castro could play there and Martin would be in "reserve" for know, along with non 40 man options like Helman and Keirsey. I think they made the right move. I really like Taylor and would have welcomed him back. Reportedly, the Twins were interested in having him back and were in contact with him. But he really wants the same kind of $ Bader and Keirmeir received. And he probably deserves that $10M kind of deal. What Taylor ultimately signs for shouldn't matter in the Margot acquisition. Opportunity met need and the Twins made a good move. Honestly, I kinda like Margot better for this team than Taylor for 2024. Taylor has more power, though Margot has some, and is better defensively, but not by a lot if Margot's past couple of injuries are behind him. We shouldn't be clouded by Taylor having a career HR and OPS season. He's unlikely to repeat what he did in 2023. Margot offers defense at all 3 OF spots, and is a better AVG and OB batter with better contact and far less K's. I'm not saying he's a better player than Taylor, but he is different. And having a "different" hitter than Taylor on a team that will continue to have some swing and miss issues makes him, potentially, a better fit at the bottom of the order as a more contact driven batter. While he's only had an OPS of .700 or more twice in his career, Taylor has ALSO only had an OPS of .700 or higher twice as well. And Margot has a career OPS above .700 against LHP. Taylor .746 and Margot at .760. We probably give up a little defense and power, but gain a better "hitter" with better OB, fewer K's, and a somewhat better OPS vs LHP. Good addition.

Just an interesting note about Julien. Just read a piece...Sports Illustrated maybe?...that Julien worked hard this offseason on facing LHP back home in Canada. He set up a pitching machine to approximate balls coming from that side, and hired a local LHP to throw to him as well. I don't recall all the details about location of pitches he was specifically working on to make better contact on, or hold up on, but this kid seems to be a real grinder. He's worked very hard on his defense previously to go from sometimes awkward to decent. And he recognizes that he's got work to do to improve his bat against same side arms. While Lee is almost certainly going to be the primary 2B in the future, Julien just keeps working to make himself better.

Totally remember those names and the overall results. Though I feel really bad about DeLeon, who you didn't mention, as maybe a BP transition that might have turned out before he got hurt, yet again. And I'm not necessarily advocating for a signing. I can see a lot of reasons to simply trust in what we have and work with it for the now, and the future. But there is a part of me that wonders what an Oddo might be like with a month or so to rebound if we need him. Or a Cueto. Or...name the guy just sitting around who might be a sold 5th starter if Varland is brought up right away and we might not want to bring up one of the prospects early. Sort of the reverse Keuchel. Again, I'm just spitballing and throwing the idea out there. My opinion is mixed.

I generally agree. But this FA has been pretty strange. And my concern is Varland being up sooner than hoped for (DeScalfini if nobody else) and then what? And that's why I wonder if maybe a veteran flier trying to prove themselves again might be smart?

I've been saying for a while now that I believe the Twins are going to sign a FA rotation arm on a milb deal to place in St Paul to see what they've got left. Said deal and said pitcher would involve some sort of split deal for when/if he were to reach the Twins. Further, a rather standard June or July 1st opt out clause would seem to make sense for this proposed signing. Why should the Twins make a move like this? Well, honestly, why not? A milb is no obligation. Any ML portion of the deal couldn't be for more than a couple $M depending on something as simple as innings pitched. While we all want to be optimistic on the health of the rotation, at some point, someone is going to be injured and miss at least a little time. DeSclafini is not a model of availability to begin with. And when Varland comes up...which he inevitably will...who's next in line? Is SWR really about ready to bust out? How many weeks until Festa is prepared to face a ML lineup with expected success? Or Canterino? Or Ohl? How big of a jump can Headrick make in year 2 of being on the 40 man and at the AAA level? The Twins did something similar last year with Dallas Keuchel, though it was later in the season. Essentially, he was brought on board for some late season insurance, but also as a possible "rest 'em if you can" option to get the rest of the rotation any rest that felt necessary to get them 100% and ready to go for the post season. Why shouldn't the Twins make a move like this? Well, this proposed signing might take away opportunity from all of the young arms just mentioned above. Isn't getting the young arms in the system all the work and experience they can for the ML club more important than some veteran flier that might not have it any longer? Or might not even be as good come June as the younger arm with a future? But should the Twins go this route, who's available anyway? Well, old friend Jake Odorizzi is on the comeback trail and is already very familiar to the Twins, and vice versa. 37yo Johnny Cueta did not have a good 2023, but was surprisingly effective as recently as 2022. How is Michael Lorenzen still un-signed after being good with the Tigers in the first half but awful with the Phillies in the second half? He still tossed 150 IP, had a 2 WAR. Would Syndergaard be stilly just in case you might figure something out and be an approximation of his old self? Apparently nobody is interested in Mike Clevinger at all! What do you think? Should the Twins make a milb move of this nature? There's little cost and no real risk. And there's veteran arms still sitting there waiting for work. Or are they better off conserving every bit of $ resource left to them for a mid year acquisition and they should devote all AAA innings to young arms and give up on what might end up as nothing more than a foolish flier?

I'm having a difficult time with the whole "no options" scenario, as if it's new or some serious, crippling detriment to the club. But I also think part of the conversation being a little convoluted here is we're just covering so much ground. 1} Right or wrong...your opinion... the FO wants to have the best, most complete roster it can to begin the season with depth available. That depth can come from various sources, but generally speaking, they want a veteran guy, a proven guy, to fill part of that roster and have younger players in reserve. Now, some of those younger players don't necessarily have to be on the 40 man to begin the season as things change over the course of a season. In this case, for example, Margot is on the club vs Martin at this time. Again, right or wrong, Margot is a nice, solid, proven player and Martin is a good looking prospect who had a nice 2023 but it was for a THIRD of a season. The Twins would rather have him playing every day at AAA, getting reps, working on his game, and have the more proven Margot in his role. Were the Twins not in a legitimate, competitive window, perhaps they would handle some of this differently. Were Martin given a shot instead of acquiring Margot, and failed, and needed to be send down, then who's your replacement? Another prospect? That's not how the FO wants to begin the season, at least while in contention. Again, right or wrong, this is their philosophy. 2} I am with Brian in that a 13 man team should always be built to be the best over all 13 man player roster it can be. And I believe the term "bench" is a pretty loose description, especially for MLB, but it's just accepted as part of the vernacular, even if not truly accurate. While it's true that most teams have a central 7-9 guys who are good enough, talented enough, productive enough to be in the lineup just about every day, the 4-6 are still very valuable. Or they'd better be. Guys need days off. Sometimes you want better matchups. And not only do you want and need the best overall 13 man roster you can, but you're going to need another 6 guys plus at different times of the season when players get hurt. It happens, and it happens every year. Refer back to point #1 on how the Twins and the FO generally seem to feel about that part of the equation. BECAUSE of the fact that you will always need more than 13 guys, there's always going to be opportunity during the season for the prospects to get their shot. Depending on how they perform, and who goes down next, this can sometimes allow for a player to stay up regardless, but can also lead them to being sent down for a time until the next opportunity. But let's move on to point #3... 3} On last year's 2023 team, Vazquez, Farmer, Gallo, Polanco, and Taylor had no options remaining. This was also true of some "lesser optimum" players like Garlick, for example. and previously mentioned. So from 2023 to 2024 the Twins haven't, in any way that I can find except maybe for a couple pen arms, suddenly changed the complexion of their team from having more players with options than having fewer or none. And most of the guys that DID have options last season, are still with the club now and still have options. So there really is no change in suddenly being restricted in 2024 in a way that didn't exist in 2023. 4} There is a difference between WANTING something and the REALITY of something. What I mean is, I WANT the Twins to have no injuries for the entire season so the best 26 can be out there all year long. But that's not going to happen. I WANT Martin instead of Margot in the OF and playing a lot and doing great. And I WANT Miranda to be 100% healthy and swinging a strong bat at 1B/DH/some 3B, and having no need for Santana having to have been signed since we have the younger player doing great. Why have Farmer at all? I WANT Lee instead, ready to go and roll. I, like many/most of us all/ WANT things like that to happen. But some guys just aren't ready yet, even if close, or are hurt. And the job of the FO is to put together the best team for opening day that they can, with a versatile roster, and depth available. Should the Twins do all that I dream about and WANT, and things don't go well, then what? I absolutely, 100% agree that the FO is sometimes so overly risk adverse that they will hold on to players longer than logic would appear that they should. Gallo has now become the poster child for this situation, but the issue is not exclusive to him alone. But if we examine 2023 pretty closely, we saw Lewis getting his shot when healthy. We saw Julien come up, go down, and come back up and stick. We saw the same thing from Wallner, even though his timetable was probably delayed somewhat longer than it should have been. Ober had no business being in AAA to begin the season. But it was a situation where the Twins had the veteran depth to start him there and bring him up as soon as opportunity presented itself, just like with the position players. And he was up very soon. Varland was right behind him, and is more or less in the same position this year as Ober last year. Martin and Lee...and others...are going to make rookie appearances with the Twins this year. And they might go down, and back up again. Or, things might happen in such a way that they are up for good. These things tend to work out very organically. Tell me a season in which a talented youngster DIDN'T get his shot at some point? Again, we can argue about the FO holding on to veteran options too long, but even then, the kids DO get their shot. Personally, as excited as I am for Lee, and Martin, Severino, Festa, Canterino, and others to make their debuts and make their marks, I'd rather work them in naturally instead of just committing to them DAY ONE and then wondering what to do if they are hurt themselves, or just aren't ready and need to be sent down for a re-set of some kind. But saying the Twins are in some restrictive or tough position because they have some veteran ballplayers on their roster that don't have any remaining options is a hard stretch, IMO.

I think Goodrum is a longshot. He's behind Lee at this point, and very possibly behind both of Helman and Prato. Prato can hit, get OB, run a little, has some pop, and can move around the field. But Helman has played more OF than Prato, has more overall power I believe, and probably runs at.least as well, if not better. And agreed he probably makes his debut in 2023 if not for batting injuries on and off again. But his stat line at AAA was excellent. So if it's between these 3, that's how I rank them in least to most likely.

For purposes of what I'm about to state, let me begin with the following: X=$30M and Y=$15M. I don't feel comfortable giving ownership a grade because I feel there are 2 DIFFERENT areas to grade. And for one of them, I just don't have enough information to properly grade. OWERSHIP#1; Their PR this offseason was atrocious! If the payroll was going to have to lower, I appreciate the honesty, but it was delivered at the worst possible time and in a poor way. Some of the comments made by St Peter were almost belittling to the fan base, though I doubt that was his intention. But it sure came across that way. And while I personally fail to see anything Joe Pohlad said as being incendiary concerning not being in on the remaining FA, and truthfully/technically he didn't name any names, I really don't see anything that has teeth for the union to criticize. But again, it sure could have been phrased better. And he should have been smart enough to not even tempt fate. GRADE: F OWNERSHIP#2: It is MY OPNION, that when a sports business ownership has a team on the cusp of having a real chance to win, they should invest in that team, and their overall franchise, at that moment. That means...refer to the top...instead of profiting $XM, they should be willing to accept a lower amount of $YM for a couple of years. It's good for the success of the team, their opportunity, and for the overall wealth of the team as an investment. And I am very, very disappointed in ownership cutting the payroll, or at least cutting it as much as they did, for 2024. They ask us to just trust them that it was necessary. But how on earth could we possibly know total income and total outlay numbers? There is speculation out there that the Twins might have brought in as little as around $270M last year. Others have speculated it's closer to $350 when you add in MLB contributions in addition to Bally, and projections for attendance and sales, etc, but we still don't know. But if it's $300M or less, I can see them having to cut to some degree or face a potential loss. I did say potential**. So can I really give the FO an "F" grade when I really and truly have ZERO concrete information on the final $ numbers? I just can't. So I can only "trust them" and assume that they are at least being mostly truthful. But I have my doubts as they have been consistently steady in building the payroll for years now. And without concrete information from them, I'm forced to give them a "D" for doubt, but not a complete "F". GRADE: D FRONT OFFICE: I mostly like what they did with what they had. I do think things might have played out differently had the Bally arrangement been made earlier in the offseason. It might have not made a huge difference, but it could have been a $5-10M swing in opportunity in various areas. Would they have signed someone like Wacha instead of DeScalfini, who might be more of a sure thing, and then moved Polanco's deal for something different? I think Polanco needed to go just to address other areas and because of INF depth, but I don't know it was the RIGHT trade. I like the depth of the pen, even if a couple of the options there might not turn out. There is real opportunity in depth. I like the Gordon trade. I'm not crazy about 38yo Santana finding a fountain of youth, but I like him on a cheap 1yr deal to fill a role. I liked the addition of Margo for 1yr as well. He fits a role on the 2024 Twins quite well. But I'm not going to rehash all of these points in depth as I've done so previously. The only way they could have added a top 3 starter, it appears, would have to have included a good handful of top 20 prospects, and possibly an already existing player we all really like. For now, right or wrong, they've made a conscious attempt to keep almost the entirety of the milb system in place. I'm not so sure that isn't the smart play for NOW. Mid season things may change. FINAL GRADE: B-B+ (based on what they had to work with and what they were able to accomplish).

I understand the premise here, but not sure I agree that there is any issue. Seldom does a team ever have all 13 position players healthy and rostered at all times. You run with the top/best 13 and try to have some depth available. Like last season when Julien was brought up, Lee will get his shot initially...more than likely...due to injury. How long he stays up, maybe for good, maybe for a few weeks, maybe a month, depends on how healthy the roster is. Julien can play 2B/1B/DH and Lee can play all 3 INF spots, (I'm not counting 1B). With Julien a primary DH, Kirilloff is the predominant 1B. Santana fills his best role which is a RH bat off the bench and rotating in at 1B. Santana and Farmer will almost undoubtedly be gone for 2025, suddenly there is room for Lee AND Julien, and possibly Miranda too if he gets healthy and gets his bat right again. Julien remains in the lineup almost every day but rotating spots. Lee and Lewis can cover SS, as can Castro, and Castro can also cover 2B/3B. I just don't see a real problem here unless everyone is healthy all year long and doing great and we we're trying to play with 14 or 15 guys. And how often does that happen?

The player roster is set now. And ST only does so little at this point. But if we nickel and dime it, it's a chance for Kirilloff to MAKE A STATEMENT. Other than that, it's SWR to prove he's not a low K soft tosser and ready to make a move for the future. And a chance for Festa to just show he's a potential option mid season. Im not sure Miranda has anything to show but health. No matter what he does with the bat, there's still a question about his shoulder and throwing. He needs to be healthy and prep himself for a rebound in 2024. The pen is so loaded with options it's about who takes a job, and a couple arms with options that HAVE TO REMAIN READY as they might lose out on the initial 26 man roster. The rest is very simple: CAMARGO: Does the defense and arm play? The power is there, is there BAT ability? LEE: Just how close is the bat for ML production? It's close, but there's work to be done, and that's OK. No pressure. MARTIN: Just how close is the bat for ML production? He had a nice end to 2022 and a great AFL appearance. Injury held him to a relative THIRD of a AAA season in 2023. He only had a .263 AVG at AAA which isn't anything to get excited about despite a high OB%. But his .405 SLG % was the best of his career so far. That means a not "punch and judy" hitter, but someone with at least pop, if not power. But we're still talking a pretty SSS size where we already know he's in St Paul to BEGIN the season. BUT, if you really want to go beyond the obvious, Larnach is huge. Can he prove himself. Should he be dealt to a team who will give him another shot? We've seen flashes. I love having him for depth and hope, but he's running in to a wall pretty soon. Beyond that, story lines to watch, Helman, and Keirsey, and Prato. as utility players to watch. They might do nothing. But Helman and Prato are a version of Castro with similar talent who might just prove themselves as similar complimentary pieces sometime during the season. I actually have some hope for Severino, But I don't think this ST is key to him. Despite being on the 40 man, I think he's a "let's see at AAA" for 2024.

I think not having some questions about the pen would be misguided. But I also believe virtually every team in baseball begins the season with questions about their pen since it's a volatile part of any team by its very nature. It's really hard to predict who is going to be good enough season to season...month to month sometimes...to build a deep, viable group of 8-12-14 arms you can count on. But I believe in strength of numbers. And the Twins have that, which is why I'm optimistic. I do like the back 4 a lot. Yes, one of these days Thielbar is going to surrender to Father Time. But he was still good last season, and his velocity even creeped up a bit. Even then, his game is built more on changing speeds, location, and mixing things up. I don't think he's done yet. Stewart is a great story. And maybe his arm just got a little fatigued at one point last year. That's what I'm hoping for. He could regress quite a bit and still be very good based on how untouchable he was. 39 IP between AAA and the Twins. Now that he's had a full season of success, I'd like to see about 50-55 innings. Can he do that? I'd sure like to believe he can as his arm seems to be built up to that now. Love Jax, and Duran is a STUD. Topa is a Stewart clone in regard to not figuring it out, or having setbacks, until he hit his early 30's. But 69 very good IP is hard to argue with. Carrying on a theme, Jay Jackson went to Japan to get his career untracked. Despite limited ML IP, it seems to have worked, culminating with a very good 2023 for the Jays. But I'd doubt him more than others simply due to sample size. Still, it's a little strange Toronto didn't work to keep him after he looked so good. I don't know that Okert is anything special, but he's got a track record of 6 years, 5 being pretty damn good, with good K numbers, a good WHIP, and his hits per IP is excellent. Staumont is a mystery coming off surgery, even he's cleared and is supposedly throwing free and easy. He was very good for 2 1/2 seasons with KC before arm issues. Even then the K numbers were good despite his peripherals. And he's got an option left if he needs time to get his control harnessed. Weiss is a complete mystery to me. He's got limited IP, but the hits per look good, and the K's look good, and the WHIP is OK. The BB stink though. I think he would have been gone if Winder hadn't been a 60 candidate as he was behind everyone else. A couple of these guys have the talent to continue to succeed. A couple will wash out, or need time to get their stuff together, Staumont being that prime example. To be honest, I actually have more faith in Funderburk and a fully healthy Alcala than a couple of these guys. But with options available, Funderburk is going to begin 2024 at St Paul. And all he has to do is keep doing what he's been doing and just wait for his opportunity. And Rocco pretty much nailed it on Alcala. What he really only needed to say was; stay healthy, and prove you have the same control of the change up you showed the last half of 2021. If he does that, like Funderburk, it's only a question of when, and not if. Further down on the farm, I love Sands' breaking ball. Can he make it and his other stuff work for an inning or two as the 7th or 8th man? Maybe. But I haven't given up on him yet. And while Winder has had a setback, and won't be elgible until late May now, his slider is very good. Can he get his new 2 seamer to work? Well, he's going to get the opportunity to work on it at St Paul when healthy. But if he can, he's a possible 1-2 IP arm with a nice slider also part of the front part of the pen. Headrick will PROBABLY begin 2024 in the Saints rotation, but I just feel he's destined for the pen. I think a lot of people forget he basically jumped from a nice 2nd half of 2022 almost straight to the ML as a fungible arm who bounced between 2 levels last year. He flashed in ST, didn't look out of place early, and then looked like he didn't belong. I really think he and the Twins would be best served transitioning him to the pen now, instead of later. Let him adjust and learn how to be a reliever as I think that's his best role. Remember Ronny Henriquez? He's still only 23yo and not on the 40 man any longer. And he battled some injuries in 2023. He had a run of a few weeks that resulted in an OP on TD that maybe the Twins should look at him. WAY to SSS! But if SWR keeps getting love for being so young and still full of potential, then I have to wonder how Henriquez, fully healthy and fully transitioned to a pen role might do in 2024. And I'm not even going to begin the conversation about SP arms that might help come September and October. That's a completely different conversation. For NOW, it's about depth and potential in numbers. And I like where the pen is at this moment.

I guess the place to start is the signing of Santana. Tons of respect for the guy and his career. I don't see his signing this season as a mistake, even if it's not exciting. There are questions about Miranda's shoulder still, Santana can hit LHP well, is a solid defensive 1B, and might even provide a little leadership/experience/know how to the younger players on the roster. All very salient positives about him. He's also a career .227 hitter against RHP and .276 against RHP. And I know AVERAGE on it's own isn't an ideal indicator of production. And while he's by no means incompetent against RHP, he still has a career OPS split of 46 points between his batting sides. From 2020 through 2022 he batted a composite .180 against RHP. Now, he did see a rebound in 2023 to .231, which is actually above his career norm. But can he maintain that...not even improve...at age 38 in 2024? I am NOT bagging on the guy. I hope he really helps this year, and I respect him. But I think we just have to examine who he is and what he does at this point in his career. His best usage this season would be as a RH hitting 1B/DH/PH who get's a few games here and there as a LH batter when the matchups make sense. How I HOPE this all turns out in 2024: KIRILLOFF: He's a very talented hitter with good power and an improved eye and approach at the plate. He had no problems with his wrist last year, which has been the issue that held him back. He produced a 117 OPS+ and has legitimate 20 HR, 30+ Dbl power and the ability to hit and get OB a little. If things break right, his defense improves, he's healthy for the season, gets 450-500 AB, and produces the way he can, and the way he did in 2023, but for longer this season. SANTANA: Guess I already said all that needs to be said. But I'll add, if he's getting 450-500 AB's this year, something has either gone unexpectedly good or bad. That just shouldn't be his role. MIRANDA: He gets his shoulder right. He plays 1B/DH and some 3B at St Paul and looks like his 201 milb and 2022 ML self and by July we're asking ourselves how to make room for him on the roster. He re-establishes himself as potentially being part of the future, or a nice trade piece. JULIEN: Lee will be up eventually. Hopefully not because someone has a massive injury that wipes out their season. He'll continue to work on his defense at 2B, he'll get DH time, and he'll continue to work on 1B and get in a few games here and there and show competency. It increases roster flexibility for the future, at the least. SEVERINO: Not going to really touch on him at the moment except to say he just needs to keep doing what he's been doing that. If he can, then the AVG and decent OB% and big time power will play at AAA the same way they did at AA. And if that happens, he'll put himself in to the running for playing time in 2025.

If Margot's knee is healed up, he's an excellent defensive OF. In 2021 he was worth 13 DRS. He can run some and steal bases, and he's got decent power. He's also a 119 OPS+ for his career against LHP. I loved the addition of MAT to the club last season and he was a life saver for the Twins. I would have embraced him back without issue. But reports are he wanted the same $10.5M that Bader and Kiermaier received. And the Twins weren't going to do that. But I'm a little surprised at some of the vitriol tossed Margot's way. I find it hard to believe the Twins...or the Dodgers...would have taken him in any deal until or unless they had checked out his knee to see if it was sound again. Even if he's a step down from Taylor, he's a fine CF if back to his normal self. And while Taylor may have a little more power, his 21 HR was an aberration last season. But Margot actually has a HIGHER career AVG, OB%, and OPS, and OPS+ than Taylor. He has also K'd at a 10% LOWER rate than Taylor, 20% vs 30%. And the two are separated by only a TENTH of a point in BB%, so neither walks more than the other. If you like Taylor great. So do I. He's got a little more power than Margot and is a notch above defensively. Margot is a better hitter and OB guy who K's less and has a slightly better OPS. They didn't trade for a bum. One thing I like about going for a CF option and not the more powerful corner bat is it frees Castro up a little more instead of having to be...potentially...the top backup behind Buxton on a daily basis.

I've always had very mixed emotions about SWR. The Twins got him in the Olympic year and his whole year was just a mess from being so young at AA, to not throwing in the Olympics at all, to then coming home and only getting a couple innings and then being shut down to rest. But in 2022 he seemed to really get it together and establish himself as someone to be excited about. And then comes 2023 where he stunk the first half, and was better the second half. But the lack of velocity was concerning. So while I'm still in wait and see mode, the increase in velocity is definitely good news. That extra 4-5mph just really changes the timing of all of his pitches off of one another. He's going to get an opportunity this season, and hopefully he'll take advantage of it. A better fastball can do nothing but help.

I really liked this post and it's perspective, as well as your breakdown on Miller and the roster. Agreed, Margot is not flashy, much less "sexy" but he fits a role to fill a hole...bad poetry not intended, lol. I think there is a disconnect at times from fans WANTS vs actual NEEDS. And I'm ALSO one of those fans. I WANT Wallner, Buxton and Kepler in the OF. I also WANT Helman to get his shot and join Castro as a pair of super utility players who provide a mix of everything at almost every position, though Helman probably has a little more power. And I WANT Martin playing almost daily in LF/CF/2B/DH and hitting .260-.270 with and OB% of about .350-360 with a combined XBH total of about 55 with 25-30 SB at the top of the order with Julien hitting #2 and still setting the table, while also being in an RBI position. And I WANT Larnach to AT LEAST be a solid LH corner bat, DH, and PH finally settling in to a role. I WANT Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Kirilloff to be the primary INF with Julien playing daily in some combination of 2B/1B/DH. And I WANT Miranda to be healthy and helping at 1B, maybe some 3B, DH, and PH, and be his rookie self again. And I feel GREAT about Jeffers and Vazquez at catcher with Camargo sitting in the wings. But that's 15 guys for 13 spots. Even if we allow ONE GUY always on the IL at any one time, that pushes the roster limit over by one. Even with that caveat, not enough room for everyone, it's still a question of readiness. Funny thing is, that roster just might be the 2nd half of 2024, or even 2025. WANTING doesn't make it so. And that's where the disconnect happens. No matter how much WE and the FO wants Martin to be really good and part of the future, he's got a THIRD of a AAA season. He might need a little more time to settle in as a hitter and mostly full time OF. As excited as we were for Miranda after his breakthrough in 2021 and his really good rookie season in 2022, there are issues with his shoulder. Larnach had improvement at AAA in 2023, but is it enough? I have tremendous belief that Kirilloff's wrist issues are over and done. And his shoulder injury seems to have been minor and he's 100% and ready to go. Personally, I think AK is going to prove to everyone that he IS the top hitter and potential producer and top prospect he's always supposed to have been this year. But if we take a step back as fans, what we WANT just doesn't mesh with reality. Farmer fills a role for now. Castro fills a role for now, though it could be long term. Vazquez fills a role, and does it well, and MIGHT show some offensive improvement this season. And those are obvious. But Margot, despite not being exciting, actually fills a role for 2024 as well. So does Santana...who I'm not excited about as I'm scared as hell he'll get the Gallo treatment instead of looking for someone else. Maybe the FO has learned their lesson? Look, I'd be a HUGE apologist if a 38yo Santana suddenly looked like a 32yo Santana. But his signing wasn't silly as a veteran 1B/DH/PH. But if a healthy AK is what he can be, then Santana SHOULD be nothing more than a rotational and PH bat. PERIOD. BUT he was a pretty smart, cheap, signing to HELP. And he might do so. So might be the unexciting Margot. Margot fills a role until he doesn't. If his knee is OK, he's a Taylor substitute for 1yr with equal defense and an even better bat. Nothing about Santana or Margot is EXCITING. But they are both solid, experienced players who offer up opportunity for solid production and depth for NOW. Nothing about Taylor or Salono was exciting last year until they were called on and performed adequately, if not above expectations. Santana and Margot are not what I WANT, but I see both as good, solid moves to elevate the floor of the team pending better options to push the ceiling forward. And that ceiling might be pushed as early as June. But I can understand the NEED vs what I WANT to happen NOW.

Actually Margot has Taylor beat on career BA, OB%, and career OPS. Taylor has a slightly better SLG% by very small 4 points. Defensively, Margot has been very good previously. He's battled a knee issue as of late, but had 13 defensive runs saved as recently as 2021. If his knee is good for 2024, we're talking very similar defense. As far as K %, Taylor has a career K% and Margot sits at 18%. Again, if his knee is ready to go, the Twins grabbed a SLIGHTLY better bat, who K's 10% less, who is very comparable defensively.