DocBauer

Career OPS vs RH hitters: .757 Career OPS vs LH hitters: .689 Sure is a good thing he can hold LH bats down so low. (sarcasm*) Really not what I was expecting at all.

Yuck

Not trying to sound like a downer, but I really didn't see anyone available for the rotation that seemed feasible or smart. Is an arm like Lorenzen was the best we could have hoped/tried for I would just as soon stick with Festa/Varland/Matthews/Dobnak/Paddack and call it a day. I was interested in Kikuchi as someone who could help in the rotation, and then maybe the pen, but not much else. White Sox don't want to trade within the division, and do we really want to give Detroit some quality prospects to haunt us for the next several years to add a rental in Flaherty? I'm not saying I would be happy, but I'd be content if they could find a way to come up with/afford a single, solid, quality LH arm that we could send to the mound from the pen without feeling compelled to gnaw at knuckles or fingernails.

Take away those bizarrely weird games against the Royals, and I dare say Ober has been arguably our best starter on the season. Watching him last year and this, I keep wondering why I keep reading articles and posts about the Twins needing a rotation arm as good or better than Ober. Personally, I think the Twins have 3 very good starting pitchers all capable of starting a playoff game. At least, as long as Lopez has indeed settled in to consistency for the remainder of the season and Ryan doesn't pull another groin. Sure hope Miranda is OK. Saving Ober's arm and letting Thielbar get a chance was the right call in the 9th. But it took 25 pitches to get through that half inning? Please tell me we're going to at least add a quality LH arm for the pen? What got in to Margot today?

I've never been an apologist for the Twins ownership, but I've never been a basher either. But to cut the payroll as much as they did, while still...supposedly...receiving $40-45M from Diamond Sports that they didn't anticipate receiving, and now possibly receiving a $ bump from MLB to help teams acquire help, they simply have zero excuses not to help this team move forward toward a possible division win, and some playoff victories. The only reason not to make a couple quality moves is: A} Opportunity. Sure seems like only a couple teams are open for business as sellers at this point. That's really going to decrease availability, possibly driving up player cost in any deal. Now, that might change over the weekend and the next couple of days, but I don't think there's as much out there as some believe there to be. B} Overall cost. I agree the Twins have a deep system right now. And they don't exactly have a ML team overflowing with 30+ year olds ready to be replaced. They can afford to make a couple smart deals to help this team, this season, without destroying the system. But if other teams drive up the cost for available players, at some point, I can see the FO just saying no. I believe a LH pen arm of QUALITY is needed. I don't want a lefty just because that's how they throw. I want someone who can be counted on in the 7th inning and not make me nervous when they take they mound. I'd like to have a quality SP added to protect against Paddack breaking down, or anyone else getting injured, and not being compelled to rely on Varland, Festa, etc. The problem is, if you want someone "better than" one of the current rotation arms, who's actually available that fits that role? Is Snell really the only one that might be available? And if so, how far do you go "in" to go get him? Or anyone else that might be made available?

If I only told you this, with no names attached... "However, across his last 15 outings, a period of 74 innings, "X" owns a 2.80 ERA with 73 strikeouts. Since his 10-strikeout game on June 15, "X" has ripped off a run of eight starts with a 1.70 ERA"...was a starting pitcher at St Paul right now, how many would be scrambling to know more and wonder why he wasn't up pitching for the Twins? That's some really good production folks. And if Dobnak was healthy in 2022 and throwing like this, he wouldn't have been in AAA. Now, does his game and tweaks in stuff play at the ML level? No way to know unless he gets a shot. But those numbers would seem to indicate he deserves a shot, whether it be with the Twins or someone else. The problem, as previously noted, is the 40 man. Is there a move that makes sense to make room for Dobnak to get that shot with the Twins this second half as a fill in arm for rest of someone else, or any further injury? That's not to say Varland or even Matthews aren't viable options. I'm just restating it's not as easy as just saying he deserves a shot and should get one. It's nice to see a good guy make a comeback and doing well. It would be a great chapter 2 in his story if he could make it back to MLB again as an effective back of the rotation starter. I think there's a reasonably good chance he gets a shot again. I just don't know if it's going to be with the Twins.

He's very exciting to be sure. The only issue I've heard speculated...similar to Festa as well...is maybe he's too much in the strike zone and he needs to play a little more on the edges to be successful at the ML level? Not saying that's 100%, just something I've read somewhere. I love his build, his velocity, the little bit of deception he's got, and having a mix of solid pitches. Imagine how good he might end up being if none of those other 4 offers aren't fully plus yet, but will be a year from now? To be fair, if he wasn't having such a tremendous season, Morris would be getting a lot more ink. His season is only trailing that of Matthews to a very small degree. And the recently returned Cory Lewis was the Twins MILB pitcher of the year in 2023 with numbers not far off from what Morris is doing this season. Love to see Morris up at St Paul before the year is done to join Matthews and Festa. There's a lot of exciting things happen in the Twins system on the mound these days.

Keaschall played a great deal of SS in college but hasn't yet since being drafted. Apparently, despite being a good athlete, he's just not a pro SS. Additionally, I've heard he doesn't have the arm you'd like for 3B, which is why he's only appeared in 2 games there. (all according to B-Ref). He's been splitting his time primarily between 2B and CF, when healthy enough to do so and not DH, so the 1B idea is kind of new. But I love it. The bat is going to play. So finding him a spot or spots to play is a great option. No reason he can't be part of the 1B equation going forward.

If I flip a coin multiple times and it comes up tails each time for 5 consecutive times, it's a fluke. If it comes up tails 24 times, it's either Twilight Zone, or a 2 headed coin. Margot appears to be a 2 headed coin as a PH. At this point, honestly, I think you'd be better off letting a LH bat step in for themselves and hope for the best, hit or BB. And as pointed out, this means said LH hitter hasn't been removed from the game for the later innnings. After one of the worst starts to a season I've ever seen, Margot has been not only productive, but highly productive against LH pitchers, other than his PH appearances. I've actually seen him make a few good plays in the OF, but generally, he's no better than average out there. And that's probably giving him too much credit. But I can live with that defense as a productive RH hitter who plays about 25-30% of the time. The problem is having a guy who's only good for 225-30% of the time as a player. His .494 OPS against RH arms is just criminal. Even as a rookie still feeling his way and not setting the world on fire, Martin has an OPS of .655 against same side arms. Having a RH bat on your team to PH, and to be a force against LHP is pretty smart. But that RH bat should at least be reasonably acceptable against RH arms or you've just dedicated a spot of your 13 position players to a player who should only be on the field approximately 25-30% of the time. That's not good roster building or management. At this point, I doubt Margot is going anywhere. And to be fair, he's been performing very well in his "normal", non PH role the past couple of months. But going forward, the Twins really need to learn a lesson about a player being rostered that is so limited.

Before the draft, I had mentioned I thought the Twins might go after a pair of HS arms since there were so many good ones all through the first couple of rounds. It seemed like a good opportunity to lean in to that portion of the draft and get a couple long term prospect arms that had high potential. I was a little surprised...maybe a little disappointed...when they only took Dasan Hill in the 2nd round. But when they snagged Carpenter, they basically grabbed another HS type of projectable arm. He doesn't turn 20yo for 2 days, (August 28th), so he's almost the same age as someone who went to a prep school. Very intriguing to have a pair of young lefties coming in to the system.

The way Dobnak is throwing the past month or so, I could have seen him getting some ML rotation time as recently as last season instead of brining in Keuchel as a late season innings eater to save on some arms. The problem is, we now have Festa, Varland still, and Matthews recently promoted to AAA and riding a high tide. I just don't know that they'd make room for Dobnak on the 40 man right now. Healthy again, what he did at the ML level previously when healthy, and what he's doing now, I think he could be a potentially solid #5 for someone. I just don't know where or how he fits in right now. But I agree he could be sent back to someone else to fill a rotation spot if the Twins acquire a starter at the deadline. From a good story perspective, I'd love to see him get a shot with the Twins again and look good. For a good guy, I'm just hoping he gets an opportunity with someone, if not the Twins.

Interesting that his best season was this past one, after missing all of 2023, while just recovered from TJ surgery. This tells me there's something to unlock here still, even for such a late round pick.

I agree with the OP in principle. But I'd have to add Miranda, and possibly remove Topa. Topa is gravy for the pen if the knee holds up and he can give us an approximate version of his 2023 self. But considering he hasn't pitched at all this season, as of yet, and Varland, and possibly Paddack, are available for the pen come the post season, and before, Topa isn't key to me. But he would be a nice add to have. Based on what we've seen from him before, and how he's looked as of late, I'd say Lopez is already "back". I appreciate adding a rotation arm to replace Paddack at this juncture, but unless it's Kikuchi or better, I believe I'd just give Festa, Varland, maybe even Dobnak, a shot before trading for someone of lesser value/ability. I do agree with adding to the pen if available. But again, I don't think the Twins really need to look at the RH side of things with what they have on hand. But Thielbar may simply be done. Okert is proving to be no better than a second LH option. Funderburk has the best pure stuff, and may yet get it all figured out, but he's a rookie, and he's out at the moment. A LH arm isn't probably going to make or break the pen for the remainder of the year, or the post season, but a good one sure would help.

He's got a tall, long frame with decent velocity, solid hit and K per 9 numbers but not so great BB results. But it seems like there's a solid base to work from. I'm guessing he was drafted so late due to his age. Not only might there be limited development left as he might be maxed out, but he also might not reach the ML until he's about 27. I wonder if he's a better pen option at this point?

Meanwhile....back at the ranch... If I could have the FO stretch their payroll for an additional $7-8M to finish out the season, I'd love to add Jack Flaherty to the rotation. He's healthy and having a great season. He's only going to be owed about $7-8M for a front line, playoff caliber arm, is only a rental so theirs no further obligation, and with Detroit out of any contention, they have no reason to reject a trade to the Twins as a divisional competitor for THIS season. The problem is what do the Twins have to give up to Detroit to get him, because there's a chance they're going to be facing off against those guys the next couple of years. Don't forget, the Tigers and Twins made a deal recently for RP Fulmer. So there's precedent here, IF the FO will go that high, and IF the Twins don't have to pay too much. Next to that little fantasy, I do like Kikuchi on an inexpensive ($4M-ish) rental that shouldn't cost much to acquire. He's still a solid, veteran arm who helps the team win the rest of the season...even if he's not part of the playoff starter mix...and can move to the pen as a LH option for short work, or for a piggy back 4th starter option in the second round. (making an assumption there). He's just not the caliber of Flaherty, but he fills the spot of "we need a solid arm to keep us winning games through September". His BB and K numbers are good. His hits per inning is not so good. I can get behind the Paxton idea for the same reasons as Kikuchi, just cheaper yet, and not as good. I have a feeling he'd be better than last season's option of Dallas Keuchel. But at that point, I'd almost roll through the youngsters...or even give Dobnak another shot...instead of making a deal with he Dodgers for anything.

He's one of my top 5 or 6 draft selections as an outsider looking in. His first season at Nevada, 2023, wasn't so great. Mainly because he got hit a LOT. But his BB were low and he K'd 8.5 per so you can see there was something to work with there. This past season, the BB remained low, the K per 9 climbed from 8.5 to 9.7, and the hits dropped WAY down. The control seems there, and he's got the kind of long and solid frame that suggests endurance, a bit of deception, and a possible uptick in velocity.

Just my opinion broke down in two parts: 1} While Julien hasn't set the world on fire at AAA....though better the past 30 days or so...the OB% shows me his approach is still intact. And I find his approach to be sound: be patient, work the count/pitcher, and take the BB if it's there, but look for something to make solid contact on. 2} I believe Julien is a natural hitter. Not saying he doesn't work hard, but some guys have a good, natural swing and good eye and some don't. As pointed out in Nick's OP, he hit in college, he hit in the minors, he's hit at the ML level, he's hit anywhere and everywhere until he struggled the first month of this year. I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, but I can see the focus and the energy suddenly rising in Julien as he steps in to a ML batter's box for the first time in months and things just sort of snap back in to place. Yes, maybe wishful thinking. Then again, he's hit anywhere and everywhere before. If his mental set is right, why can't he begin hitting at, or close to the level, we saw last year? Not saying he's going 3 for 4 with a HR his first game back, but I expect him to be a lot closer to the version we saw last year than what we saw at the beginning of this one.

Simeon Woods Richardson wants to have a conversation about Sears replacing him as the #4 starter. Sears, 28, has more experience than the almost 24 yo Richardson, and is LH, which gives the Twins rotation a different look, and might offer LH help in the post season as well. But..... Sears quad line and BABIP: .250/ .320/ .437/ .757/ .274 SWR quad line and BABIP: .228/ .287/ .355/ .642/ .267 Now, to be fair, again, Sears has more experience, and has thrown about 18 more innings this season. Richardson might keep getting better, or could hit a wall at some point here in his first, full, rookie season. But right now he's besting Sears in every category. I'd say if anyone is "deserving" of being moved out of the rotation it's the hot and cold Paddack. Nothin against Sears. Depth is good. An option to rest someone later in the season is good...assuming you want someone other than who's in the Twins system right now. But I think you go BIG or you don't go all for a rotation trade. And I just don't know that there's a whole lot to choose from for that BIG addition at this point in time.

What's confusing me is a different idea also presented by Cody on a different website makes much more sense: Garrett Clevinger from Tampa Bay. Somewhat similar to Topa last season, Clevinger had a rally nice SSS for Tampa in 2022 and 2023, with 18 and 12 IP respectively, with lower hit totals, and double digit K numbers, (somewhat high BB numbers), before suddenly expanding his usage here in 2024. He's up to 42 games and 38 IP so far with only 32 hits, 49 K's, and a fairly high 20 BB. While his AVG against is only .225, and none of his other quad numbers are outlandish...a not so great OB% of .343 due to his BB notwithstanding...his numbers are higher in 2024 than they were the previous 2 seasons, possibly due to SSS OR greater familiarity with him by opponents at this time. But he's only a little over 30yo, only making about league minimum, and is team controlled through 2027. Now, we're not talking an All Star type of pen arm here, but we are talking a LH arm that can strike guys out at a quality rate, and doesn't give up many actual hits. And if he fits in well, we can keep him for the forseeable future. Tampa is out of any playoff scenario for this season, so if they are interested in moving Clevinger, I'd think he's as good, or better, than Bernardino, and would come with a lot less cost prospect wise than someone like Julien.

LH, 6' 2" and 192 lbs according to Baseball Reference. A career 2.52 ERA in college, fewer hits than IP, great WHIP, less than 2BB per 9, and a K per. Something is missing here if this guy didn't get drafted. I'm going to assume he's a lower velocity "crafty" lefty? Still, an intriguing pick up.

Do we have a breakdown on his injury and the misdiagnoses he .mentioned? I haven't come across that yet in my reading. Very excited about Carr. I also might be more excited about him than Amick. I'm guessing he was a 10th round pick due to small college/conference? His numbers last season were tremendous. A 1.380 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, regardless of level.

Speak for yourself. I'm pinning a TON of hope on Stewart! LOL But seriously, he may just have an arm that only has 40-50 innings max in it. Or, maybe, after pitching so little for about 3 years or so due to injury and rehab, his arm is still getting used to the workload and he'll be stronger going forward? But if they can just use hum for a single inning and never back to back, he's a real weapon that I'm hoping can make it through the next 3 months. (I'm not counting July). It APPEARS Topa's knee is doing well. Again with the HOPE he can provide depth and help as a serious middle inning arm, if not better. I'm very encouraged by Staumont. As I stated, I just want to see a little more from him before I check the box that says he's back and reliable. But I am very encouraged at the moment.

Andrew Morris...about 2yrs younger... was promoted to AA a couple weeks after Matthews was, and has been performing to the same outstanding standard. Are we now on a Morris to AAA watch? Going to be a lot of fun watching Zebby to close out the season. But I'm secretly hoping we don't see him until 2025. That means the current staff is healthy and doing well and he can just finish the year strong and focus on next year.

Biggest surprise? The 7-13 start I NEVER saw coming! Nor did I see so many awful starts to a season from so many. Honestly, was Kirilloff the only one who hit at all during that stretch? TIED: How good the team has been/played since then. Even with additional injuries and some guys heating up slowly, they've been on about a 100 win pace since that awful start. That's even better than I had projected. Not overly surprised by Miranda, Buxton, or Alcala, other than Miranda being even better than I had expected/hoped. For these three it was just about being healthy and for Alacala to get the opportunity to be used correctly. SWR HAS been a surprise, and a BIG one! Not going to say Staumont is a surprise until I see more high leverage spots. His BB have been a little high and his K's a little low. Feel like I've seen a few too many inherited runners to score and I want to see him come through in a greater "clutch" time or two before I say he's really surprised me.

Not sure I get the Becerra pick from Cal. Not all that big, and except for about half of 2023, he's never hardly started a game. I'm guessing he's a reliver only? Unless they somehow think he's got the mix to transition to the rotation in pro ball?