DocBauer

So the Zips projections are that the top 3 Twins prospects are also their top 3 Twins prospects? And all 3 could help the Twins in the near future? Pretty bold stuff there. I was expecting some arrival and numbers projections. Or is my screen broken?

In regard to Paddack and trade value, it was reported in various sources that various teams had interest, but Falvey didn't like the returns being offered. Perhaps teams suspected a salary dump opportunity that wasn't reality? But there was reported interest. I would have moved him as part of a deal, or as a dump to make another deal, and added a bat via trade. I've offered up ideas in previous articles, and there's no sense rehashing those. It would have meant less depth, and more pressure on SWR and Festa as well as Matthews and the other young arms at AAA, but it's the move I would have made and just put my trust in the young arms. That being said, having Paddack does provide some hope of upside at the moment. It's why other teams had interest, especially at only $7.5M for 1yr. His presence provides depth to begin the year in case someone is hurt early on, or SWR suddenly shows regression, which I don't believe is going to happen for Sim. And I repeat that what happened with Ober wasn't fair, but it quickly worked itself out. The depth and options...no pun intended...is nice to have to begin the season. And even if Paddack does break down, you've bought a little more time for your AAA staff to get their legs under them. Again, it's not what I would have done. IMO, the FO has become almost paranoid in regards to a "depth" issue to the point where they are almost afraid or rolling with the talent on hand at times. One thing I'll give Cleveland and Milwaukee credit for is they are willing to roll with their younger talent and let them endure growing pains and let them grow. I think our FO needs to adopt that philosophy more and trust in the ceiling more than a solid floor at times. If I were in charge, Paddack would be gone, a decent prospect or two might be gone, but we'd have a proven ML 1B instead of France. But I CAN appreciate having Paddack around still as a viable ML SP to begin the season. Who knows, maybe he does well enough he could be moved in a deal for help elsewhere with Festa and others knocking down the door.

I watched Lee in a couple of ST games last season, as well as during the regular season. I don't know that he's athletic enough to be a starting SS at the ML level. But he can play the position adequately on an occasional basis for sure. But at 3B and 2B I saw a smart ballplayer that took good position, had good hands, made smooth hand changes and pivots, and had a solid arm. I have no issues wherever they put him, but it does seem to make more sense for him at 2B and Lewis at 3B. His bat was looking really good in ST. It looked good again in St Paul once he got over his back issue. It looked good...better than it probably is...his first few games up, and then he was poor after that. How much of that was being a rookie? How much was the shoulder issue he developed? How much was a combination of both? My philosophy is when a guy hits in college, and then hits in the minors, the potential exists he will do so at the ML level, allowing for being a rookie, or dealing with injuries, or both. My personal opinion/hope is Lee IS ready to take the 2B job. And the bat will play. But I'm suspecting the 2026 version of his bat will be better than what we see in 2025 due to experience and the nature of his baseball intelligence just making adjustments.

I love good defense. I love defense helping the pitching staff. Run prevention is a combination of the pitcher and the position players. But offense is still king, overall, at most positions. That obviously means 1B as well. We have to remember that an extra base runner, or opportunity, does mean more work for the pitcher at times. But it doesn't mean said runner will come home. So agree that a run scored by your offense is often better than a missed defensive play in the long run. And the way the game is played now is vastly different than 20 years ago. It used to be very few catchers, SS, or CF were producers. They were defense first. Second base was largely the same. But in the modern game of today, there are so many offensive SS, 2B, CF that offense comes from different sources than we used to see. And maybe that's why we're seeing such a drop in production league wide at 1B. You no longer NEED that spot to be your middle of the order BIG BAT. Still, I really miss having an everyday 1B who could handle the position defensively and STILL produce. It really feels like a missed opportunity in the Twins lineup at the moment.

Wanted to add that I love Paddack's enthusiasm for this season, but he's also being a bit impractical in his hopes. And that's OK. I'm glad he feels good and is ready to contribute and have a good season. What's going to be interesting is seeing how his offseason plan turns out. He took about a week or so off, and then spent time almost daily either throwing a baseball, or football I believe, in an attempt to keep his arm loose and strong. The thought being maybe keeping his arm more active...without overdoing it we hope...will make it stronger and more durable. I can see the method to the madness there. I guess we'll see.

I think Correa meant in general, right? And not just this season? Regardless, he and I are both optimists at heart! But I don't think his optimism is misplaced if Lewis can shake those pesky muscle pulls and tweaks that have plagued him, and Correa's own plantar issues are over and done. As amazing as Buxton is when he plays, the fact is Rodriguez will be up sometime this season, and will hopefully be established in 2026. Combine Larnach and Wallner just approaching what should be their peak years, add in Jenkins at some point in 2026, and the offensive production should be there. Oh, less we forget Keaschall arriving this season as well, and if Lee gets his bat right, the INF begins to gel as well. That's all the more true if SOMEONE can take over 1B full time internally, or the new owners will OK additional payroll to make it happen. Personally, I like Jeffers. But he's going to need a new partner of some sort next season. The front 3 of the rotation are all intact through 2027, barring any extensions. SWR, Festa, and others have just arrived, or will be arriving soon for additional help/depth, and a couple may move to the pen. How long Duran and Jax are affordable may influence the pen. Stewart isn't getting younger, even assuming good health. But Sands looks like a keeper. Alcala isn't expensive at all. Does a full time pen role unlock Varland's potential? Can Funderburk get over 2024...he had a couple minor injuries i believe...and build on his solid 2023? Do the Twins move LH Nowlin to the pen and get another hard throwing K arm for the pen? Is Adams destined to follow the Jax and Sands model and become a nice pen piece? (I'm betting that's where he ends up). What IF Prielipp DOES move to the pen? (Still not sure about that one). Everyone mentioned here is on the 40 man now, or really close to debuting in 2025 or 2026. And perhaps new ownership allows for an extension or two, and a smart addition or two. I'm not presimistic about 2025. I like most of this team, despite some flaws and a hole or two. And I plan to enjoy a winning team! But I'm actually more excited about 2026 and beyond right now. World series possibilities? Maybe. But a good team making the playoffs means you have a chance.

Apparently math is hard or my eyesight is fade. He will be 24yo shortly after the season begins, not 25. Thank you for the correction.

The reason teams had interest in acquiring Paddack is the same reason he might be of quality service to the Twins, he's not expensive, he's not yet 30yo, and he's further removed from surgery. That MIGHT mean his velocity becomes more consistent, and his vaunted changeup that he seemed to lose a feel for in 2024 might be back in 2025. To me that might be the biggest opportunity for him having a good season, does his change come back all the way? Honestly, I'd rather he was moved with another piece or two for a bat that might make a difference, or as part of a move to shed salary and take on salary for said bat. No question the rotation is deeper to begin the season WITH Paddack. And I've never said I don't like the guy or I expect him to stink. I just rather would have been more aggressive in "trusting" my young arms and begun the season with SWR and Festa holding down the final 2 spots. But I wouldn't be surprised if Paddack had himself a solid season in 2025.

I have nothing against the kid. I'd like to have as many good pitching prospects as we can. But I just don't see the fit here. He had a very nice 2024, but 2/3 of his season was at A+ ball and the other 1/3 was at AA. He's going to turn 24yo in early May shortly after the season begins. Is he really so much better than the arms we already have at AAA and AA that he's worth trading a decent prospect for? I don't know. I'm asking. And for a team with plans to contend for the playoffs, can we really afford a 7 man pen? Because that's what you're going to be playing with most days. A stashed long man to eat innings is only going to be used once every 7-10 days. I say this based on how such an arm was used by the Twins previously. Now, there might be a game where he HAS to pitch because it's all men on deck during a tough, tight series with someone, but that only further increases the need for him to be something more than just a stashed innings eater. I'd be happy to trade with the Phillies to keep him, provided we don't give up another really good prospect for him. In that scenario, 1+1 does not equal 2 to me, it's just swapping out prospects. And maybe I'm missing something. Maybe he's going to jump from 8 games at AA and really rock the 8th spot in the pen. He's interesting. It would be nice to keep him. But the odds of him being a major contributor to the pen with no options available...when we already have a couple of those...just doesn't feel like a fit for this team, IMO.

The Twins are going to miss Santana's defense. That's not even debatable I don't think. The question is how much they are going to miss it? And that's not just how well/average/poor France and Miranda play 1B. Correa is great at SS. Period. Lewis was a 3B in HS before taking over SS his senior year. He's got a strong arm and remains a good athlete, even with a loss of speed. I also can't recall throwing issues until sometime last season. He gets his throwing motion back to "normal" and 3B is just fine, and potentially good. Can Lee take 2B and it his? He isn't a speed, but he doesn't have to be. He positions himself well, seems to have good instincts, soft hands, is smooth in his motions, and a plenty strong arm for 2B. If Lewis's arm is "fixed" and Lee is ready for full time duty, I think the INF is pretty solid, if with questions about 1B. (And I think Castro is just fine in his role). Solid at catcher, solid up the middle INF, and solid in CF. The corners might be a little rough, but that's not fair to Lewis, or any improvements from Larnach and Wallner. Bad 1B defense, no Lee at 2B, Lewis's arm keeps frustrating, then the INF might be in some trouble. But Lewis right and Lee in place, I think the INF might be OK.

I really didn't want him with the 1st pick, but like him at 60, even with some bust risk. He may always K too much, but good power and e en decent BB numbers make him potentially dangerous. It feels to me as if he can just harness in his chase rate that the contact and BB rates would both improve. Just harness in the crazy swings and he's got a chance. You absolutely keep him at 3B for as long as possible. If he's OK there, that means he's got more value...even in a part time 3B role...for the Twins, or for another team in trade. But I'd still.be playing him at 1B about 30% of the time now. Plenty of opportunity to play and improve at 3B, but a chance to get his feet under him at 1B for a future move.

Right now you're probably looking at Culpepper, Ohl, MacLeod, Jones, Langenberg, and very possibly Prielipp.

Rocco listed Paddack as one of the 4 starters in one conversation but held off on naming the #5 spot. SWR ran out of gas late. But before he did, he was actually improving and showing confidence and enthusiasm on the mound, as if he really understood that he belonged. He's got to be the favorite based on what he did last season. But I don't know that he should be handed a spot. What if Festa...who has more upside...has the better spring? I think it comes down to those 2, with the "loser" being next in line when someone is needed. And at some point, they're going to need additional arms. It's not an "if", it's always a "when" for every club.

I believe he could be lights out in the pen! But only turned 24yo in January. His stuff is just good to not still look at him as a SP. I agree with the basic framework that @bean5302 laid out, a slow ramp up of number of pitches thrown and innings. Basically, putting him on the Ober and Raya path of a buildup. I think you see how well he does, and how his arm and body respond. If he's healthy and doing well, there's probably a time during the season when you reign in his pitch count back in as to not over extend him. That might mean starting an inning out of the pen and going back down to 3 or 2 IP. That has the POSSIBILITY of him being a 1 IP difference maker late in the year for the Twins. But I'm not betting on it. I think the idea is ramp him up, stretch him out, and then maybe back him down some with the intent of being ready to be ready for 2026 at age 25. I know he's thrown very little, and he only tossed 23.1 innings in 2024, but they were impressive innings with tremendous stuff. I'm wondering if he doesn't just go straight to AA for this upcoming season.

Play your best/most talented players. And put your best/most talented players in a position to succeed. Varland has the ability to be good in the pen, potentially very good. Festa and Matthews are ahead of him in the rotation right now. Morris and Lewis are right behind them, along with Raya. Even if Paddack had been moved...was still moved...I'd still place Varland in the pen and trust in my young rotation arms. It's probably not fair for Festa and Varland to begin the season in St Paul. But these things tend to work out...(see Ober: 2023)...and they'll get their ML time.

There's a very real chance that Keaschall settles in at 1B if Lee takes over 2B. Forget arguements he's too talented and athletic to be placed at 1B. There is an opening, he's athletically talented enough to be a quality defender there, and bring really good offense. Just because he's not a 30HR bopper doesn't change the fact that he can be a very good offensive producer. Amick, drafted last year, has a chance to be a very good power producer and decent hitter. He's probably not going to stick at 3B. That's the top 2, right now IMO.

As I said in another OP post, it's possible either of Larnach or Wallner MIGHT be able to adapt to 1B. The problem is we're talking career OF who might not have played on the dirt since college or HS! And now they have to scoop, as well as adjust to odd throws, as well as learning the basics of handling a ground ball at 1B. IMO, the FO has taken "position less defense" one step too far when it comes to 1B. And it IS the least valuable defensive position overall, and always has been. But 1B has been handled average-ish with the likes of Sano and Arraez and Solano before Santana last season. The difference is those guys were INF and more used to playing in the dirt. Sabato was the ONE GUY the drafted as a pure 1B and that's tured out to be a bust! But 1B SHOULD still be considered an important position, and not JUST due to offense. Better defense is better defense. Larnach or Wallner are far down my 1B option spectrum. I'd bet real $...and I'm not a betting man...that Julien would be a better defensive 1B than Larnach because he's simply USED to playing in the dirt. But I'm also anti-conventional when it comes to roster construction. I despise the "he's too good of an athlete to be played at 1B" mantra because it's ridiculous. There is NOTHING wrong with Keaschall being able to play 2B, AND being able to play a good CF/LF and maybe even some SS/3B if his arm recovers 100%. He could be an even better version of Castro! But why couldn't he just be an outstanding 1B? Being a great athlete means what, that he could be really good defensively at 1B vs a statue? And how does playing 1B decrease his potential offensively from being a potentially good hitter, OB%, good XB hitter, and a guy who can steal bases? Erstad of the Angels a few years ago and Cody Bellinger were true CF who also played 1B because THEY COULD, and the offense was the same. So no to Larnach. And very much a YES to making Keaschall a stud 1B with great offense.

I have ZERO issues with Bader covering LF against LHP. He's a quality defender with good range and a good arm. And there is more territory to cover in LF. Conversely, Wallner and Larnach are a better fit in those scenarios as there is less total ground to cover...at least at home...and while Larnach doesn't have Wallner's cannon, he's got a solid arm. Whoever doesn't start is available to come off the bench later in the game. Meanwhile, as stated in the OP, both Larnach and Wallner did raise their performance somewhat against LHP in 2024. With little doubt, maturity/experience has something to do with that, but also they just received more opportunity in 2024 to do so. Neither of them...or any other LH hitter...will ever grow to an acceptable level unless actually given the opportunity to improve. So this is a potential win-win. I think the objection I, and others, have had is to build the entire roster to be platoon heavy. You end up with a roster of "specialists" that completely messes you up later in games when pitcher handedness swaps. This scenario doesn't do this. It's the smart way to do SOME platooning. There's also a thought that having a LH bat, or two even, in a lineup against a LHSP might play a little against said SP simply because he has to re-think and change his approach just a little a time or two through the lineup when a LH bat comes up. And let's face it, Larnach and Wallner both have the ability to make major damage on a mistake pitch against a LHP. So again, this works. Martin is out of the equation, IMO, assuming he makes the roster, unless he's in LF and Bader is in CF to give Buxton a day off. But the same theory applies.

Keaschall teasing everyone with his future is my #1, though he might begin limited to DH only as they test out his arm. I believe he's supposed to be full go by mid March? My #2 is Canterino. The TJ is over and done with and he's FINALLY due a little good luck in his pro career. He won't break with the club, but he's going to be used ONE INNING at a time in the spring and look like it will be between he and Varland for "next man up" when they need a pen arm.

Biggest impact? Keaschall is the easy answer to the #1. It's only a question as to when he's up to help. I can see Blewett getting a shot at some point. But I think one of Lewis or Morris has a greater opportunity for a major impact as the season goes along. Festa, then Matthews in a pecking order for help, But I could see Lewis or Morris coming up before Raya, despite not being on the 40 man yet. Funderburk should be far ahead of Misiewicz, but I can see him making some appearances. Biggest potential surprise? How about Speas at 27yo and with his 6th organization suddenly finding a modicum of control and being a surprise arm in the pen?

You know, it's one thing to bring in a guy you hope will be healthy, rebound, and be the guy he was 2 years ago after a pair of medioce seasons. But it's another thing to declare that same guy...more or less ignored by the other 29 teams...a full time starter from day ONE. This just makes no sense to me at all. The only thing that should have been said would be something along the lines of "we think he's healthy and looks good. He's going to have every opportunity to compete for a spot on our team and hopefully be a productive member." And that's basically it. Period.

The world is better with baseball back in business!

I wish I had an answer. Over the years, it's been my experience that a few weekend games are on the radio. I've caught a few ST games in the past on TV. IIRC some of them were on MLB TV as they sort of ramp up for the season. I WANT to say a couple were on the MLB package but can't recall correctly at the moment. Sorry, wish I had more to offer. And since we're entering new territory, I'd say just keep checking the APP often, and if you have MLB TV on your TV package, keep looking for ST games that they might offer.

I fully admit that in MY case, Santana exceeded my expectations in 2024. I think that's true for most of us. And until he stepped up in ST 2023 and made the club. I don't think ANYONE saw Castro suddenly maturing in to a good ML player. And honestly, I didn't know who Stewart was until he performed well. It frustrates me when the Twins bring in a "who" flier in the offseason and those signings are met with a certain amount of chagrin. EVERY team in MLB brings those fliers in for competition and to fill out their AAA rosters. SOMETIMES you get a surprise. Santana, Castro, and Stewart are recent examples that have paid off. In a recent OP about Rizzo and Turner, I made a somewhat flippant comment that I'd rather they sign France as a 30yo bounce back candidate vs a player who is toast, and another who is 40yo and on a downturn. Guess I sorta got my "wish", LOL. France is a bit of a late bloomer who had 2 really solid seasons with Seattle, and 2 somewhat mediocre seasons. My expectations for him are low. His early 2024 season numbers before injury give me SOME hope he might turn things around. Again, at a not old 30yo, we often see guys fade due to whatever reasons, and then rebound. So I don't hate his signing as a flier. Maybe he's healthy and surprises. It happens! My consternation is A] even if he does well, why should he replace Miranda, limiting his growth and potential, as the primary 1B, B] will we end up with another Gallo/Farmer/Margot situation where they stubbornly refuse to cut him if he's not performing well because he's a veteran. Just my $.02.

If you look at his career seasons, he's been very much a yo-yo performer with the bat. Poor, average, poor, above average, poor again, etc. I can't recall why he wasn't in MLB in 2023. But his numbers were pretty good in 2021-2022 and 2024. At 35yo, does the glove still play at SS? If so, they should jump on him for a MILB deal as insurance. Guessing he'd want an opt out, but still, it might be a smart flier to take.