DocBauer

Sudden flashback to my youth in the '80's and LOVE you for the brief flashback visit! Ahhhh....the memories and the music!

I love the idea and the enthusiasm. And I think this kid is going to be a STUD and a centerpiece moving forward. But if I'm not mistaken, isn't AK repped by Boras? The Twins may not be a "favorite" of Borasm but we've always had a good relationship with him, past and present. In fact if you believe in "scuttlebutt" most agents reaĺy like and appreciate our FO. But if I'm correct on the Boras notion, there won't be an extension anytime soon unless it's BIG. Forgive my memory if incorrect.

Going to bullet point here: 1] Get over Rooker not being 22/23. He was a college player, maybe a bit of a late bloomer. He's made steady and productive advances through the system. MANY very good players didn't hit their stride until mid 20's. Nobody said he was a drafted future HOF'er. 2] I was a bit surprised how comfortable he looked and how well he hit in his SSS because despite his milb numbers, he always seemed to need a few weeks to get his legs under him and make adjustments before raking. And then I remembered what he did at AAA in 2019 and his time in St Paul in 2020 and I am no longer surprised at his SSS performance. 3] In regard to Kiriloff, forget all the service time B.S. for a moment, other than the one playoff game and his time in St Paul, he's had ONE GAME above AA. Not only could he benefit from a "ramp up" to begin 2021, but how about time for Rooker to show what he could do as a LF/1B option the first month? Eventually, there will be room for Kirilloff, Larnach AND Rooker post Cruz. (Potentially trades out of the equation for this discussion). There is nothing wrong Rooker on the initial roster and Kirilloff at St Paul initially unless ST blows everything up somehow.

To the topic at hand: I see no reason to believe Rogers won't be at least a close approximation to what be bas been previously. There is no injury factor or sudden loss of velocity. He had a short season, OK season in 2020 but wasn't what we'd seen before. There is no major concern at this point, IMO. Nor should there be any concern at this point for sudden regression of Duffey. Where we can debate is Colome vs May for $2M more. Was a mistake made there? May has velocity and K numbers Colome can never match, even if Johnson tweaks his stuff/approach. But you can't deny the proven results of Colome over the past few years. The guy has been consistent and efficient as can be. Better in certain areas. And they are very different pitchers. I don't think it's totally fair to call them a "swap" because they are so different. Colome vs Romo, and how the pen was used, might be a better comparison. And in that regard, Colome might easily be an upgrade. I continue to be very impressed by Stashak with his location, deception and presence. He still needs refinement or a "decent" 3rd offering to take another step. And it is very, very easy to see Alcala taking on a larger role by the end of the season with experience. But to me, right now, to begin the season, the key to the pen is Robles. I toss out his 2020, as the Twins seem to also do, like so many others. I also toss out his 23 saves in 2019 not because he didn't do it, or can't do it, but because I'm focused on his career numbers and results. For his career, he has a higher BB per than I'd like. But his WHIP, ERA, over 9K per and other numbers are very solid. With ZERO Johnson magic, if we just get normal career numbers from Robles we've added a quality, experienced arm for the back half of the pen. The Twins had a surprisingly solid pen the 1st half of 2019 and a better one the last half after changes. They bad one of the best pens in all MLB in 2020. And now they've swapped out May and Romo for Colome and Robles. Even swap or improvement? Factor in Alcala and Stashak getting better, a couple new arms for Johnson to work with, and then add in Colina at some point and MAYBE Chalmers...who is going to remain a SP as long as possible...and I'm just worried right now about the pen. But my sense of any "worry" and key is Robles. If they got that signing right, the back end looks as good or better than what they had last season.

The velocity and spin rate seem to be there. He has learned a slider or slider adaptation off his curve with solid reports from all that I've read. His vaunted curve seems to have regressed, which is a shame because a good curve is still a valuable pitch to have, even with a centric focus on sliders. I admit I've been disappointed thus far because I'm just waiting for the "breakout" that JL mentioned. But then I look at solid numbers, upward movement and his age and I realize "hopeful impatience" is skewing my perspective. I don't know if I'd put him in MY top 10 only because the system is pretty deep with quality prospects all around, but I can't argue with him here.

Here's the thing about these projections; none of them are far-fetched at all! Buxton just has to remain relatively healthy. He and the Twins have taken steps to help in this area. The shot to the head late in 2020 was not his fault. We can't talk about how weird 2020 was an how many players were affected in so many ways, and offer up plausible excuses for those players, and not offer up excuses/exemptions for Sano as well. He probably had his best overall season in 2019 once he got past his bizarre injury and seemed to really mature, he had a good 2020 going until late. Would he have rebounded during a normal, full length season and finished just as strong? Pineda is an interesting study as the arm talent was never in doubt earlier in his career. He had some injuries that held him back for a time and prevented him from reaching his full potential. Except for a few mediocre initial starts in his Twins career, he has been good to outstanding when on the hill. Some of his pure stuff has waned over time, but he might actually be a better, smarter pitcher than he was before. You can say these projections are optimistic, and you'd be right. But that optimism is grounded in sound projectability of talent and production already witnessed.

Hamilton has had a tremendous run of bad luck the past few years between a car accident and a line drive to the face that required several reconstructive surgeries. But the arm talent at least was there, which is why he's been picked up so many times before being waived again due to 40 man crunches. The kid deserves a break and I really hope, this close to ST starting, he clears waivers and remains with the Twins. A chance to stay put for a year and work with Johnson and company might re-vitalize his career.

Forgive me if my numbers are off slightly, I'm sure they are pretty close, but I believe Cruz is 2nd only to Trout in OPS over the past 2yrs. Additionally, were his OPS to drop a full 100 points in 2021 he would still rank something like 7th across MLB the past 2yrs. So yeah, even with a fair amount of regression, he should still be a quality bat this year.

This is not an exciting move. But does it have to be? It's a smart flier for the 5th spot that provides depth and could be really solid. There's really nothing to dislike about this move.

He's AAA insurance. Period. He has an opt out. Good for him. But his ML bat has disappeared the last few seasons. If his bat comes back and somebody comes calling, move on. Otherwise, wait for opportunity. Cave remains a better option at this point.

A lot of comments that I'm going to save until the top 20. But in regard to this list: WINDER: Top 20 this time next year if not mid-year from his 2019 results and the reports of velocity and improvement on his own and instructional. CHALMERS: Might still be destined for the pen. Like so many young "big arms" it's the 3rd pitch and overall control that has prevented him from being high on any prospect list. What's encouraging is not pure stuff but his 2019 finish at high A that I think encourages the Twins to keep him in the rotation for now. Never want to give up on a kid too soon in the rotation. RIJO: Velocity and control are there. Both seem to have improved since he came to the Twins. But I keep reading his FB is straight and doesn't miss bats, or won't as he climbs. Can they tweak his FB? VALLIMONT: Small school kid with stuff drafted in the 5tb round in 2018 and basically raked in 2 levels of A ball over a year and a half and reportedly has velocity. No reason at all to place him in any top 20 list. But...could he be a riser in 2021? Not sure how he was a "throw in". JAVIER and SEVERINO: Javier could be a STUD SS and Severino a STUD 2B...POTENTIALLY. I see both as competition with Miranda for the next Twins 3B IF THEY COULD JUST STAY HEALTHY and play! Just too much talent to give up on either at this point. I've had a theory that both of these kids have not only had some bad luck, but part of their problem has just been physically growing and growing out of their positions. Can their body and mind settle down and just play ball? If so, both could vault up the system. 2019 DRAFT: I was really pleased to see a concentration on the infield in this draft. Cavaco developing or not, they brought in a number of intriguing options that were needed to infuse the system. Time will tell, but the selections seemed smart at the time. Numbers aren't everything, but enough well thrown darts at the board usually means you hit. Interesting Sands wasn't listed in the honorable mention. Does that mean he's in the top 20?

ONLY version 1.0 but pretty accurate I'd say. And I agree with about 90% of this. A few thoughts in my suddenly traditional bullet points, lol: 1] Kirilloff: If he rakes, looks ready in the field and at the plate, I'd really like to see the team just run with him. But let's not forget that the Twins didn't invent the service time clause. It's probably gone next CBA, but it still exists for 2021. But let's also not forget that despite his St Paul time and playoff appearance, he bas yet to play a single game at AAA. Would a month at St Paul do anything but help him? Also, it allows time for Rooker to get AB and get his legs under him to begin the season. That's not a bad thing. 2] While Arraez needs AB and opportunity and will undoubtedly get them, I am still in favor of the Twins bringing in another bench option for depth. With health, the Twins have one of the very best infields in all of MLB. Astudillo has a real role to play as the 26th man, and I went in to recent depth in another thread why, but a couple $M spent on Frazier, Miller, Cabrera, etc, would build TREMENDOUS depth for the infield if injuries rear their ugly head again. 3] Astudillo: See point #2. He fits a perfect role, at least to begin the season, so guys like Gordon and Blankenhorn can play daily down the road and get ready. I like him. I appreciate his role. I can see him on the opening day roster with no objections on my part. But I'd rather see him as a 27th man in favor of another FA infielder "value" sign...and the options are out there folks...in case of injury and depth issues. I'd rather see Rocco having a hard time finding enough AB for an 11th at a couple $M than risk not having enough talent available. Again, see point #2. 4] STAFF: We have seen enough of this FO to know late signings and surprises should not be unexpected. I like Dobnak. I think they do too. They've also stuck by Thorpe to this point. They obviously see something. And the ship has not sailed on Thorpe yet, though the boat has weighed anchor and is getting ready to head out. But do we dismiss his milb results and glimpses he showed in 2019 vs a poor 2020? That's kinda short-sighted isn't it? I don't know if the FO will surprise us with a major signing or trade, but they sure could based on past years. But at the least, I'd bet on a FA milb SP signing and invite, if not more, for depth and competition. With the additions of Anderson and Hamilton, plus the signings of Cruz and Colome, someone has to go off the 40 man. And that stinks, but at least 1-2 of the 40 man is going to have to go. Stinks not because of a potentially better addition, but because there are 4 arms with some potential that will have to be passed through waivers that have potential as helpful arms. But that's not necessarily a bad thing in the end. We're 90-95% there. But there should/could be at least an interesting invite away from the final 40 man heading in to ST. Question is, knowing the history of this FO, are we in for a surprise or two?

Whether a fan of Astudillo or not, I think there are points to be made/understoo3 about him that some just don't recognize as to his relative "importance" or place on the roster. And let me be clear here that despite being a fan, for various reasons, I've openly stated I wish the Twins would bring in another catcher for St Paul to join Tellis and I've been hoping the glut of solid/decent FA infielders still available would allow the Twins to spend an extra couple $M to provide even greater depth and flexibility to the bench in case of the injury bug hitting again. Now, barring injury, there may not be a lot of opportunity for games played and AB for a 2nd utility player beyond Arraez, but I'd rather error on the side of caution and bring someone else in. And there are some really solid/interesting options available. But back to Astudillo: 1] While there have been some inconsistencies at the plate, we have seen he can hit. 2] While by no means a great glove man, he fields what he gets to and has a decent arm. He's not just a softball player on a ML team who stands at a spot. That's kinda ridiculous. He's also not bad as a 3rd catcher. And yes, I've watched many games where he is behind the plate. And I've seen some badly played balls. I've also seen him receive quite competently and be the receiver in well pitched games. So again, while a 3rd catcher option he is not just some guy thrown behind the plate. 3] I hold out hope Gordon can turn himself in to a useful utility man. I have even higher hopes that the powerful and athletic Blankenhorn can "settle in/down" as a hitter and defender who I could see playing 5 positions as a great bench piece. But NOBODY is going to put those guys on the bench to play once or twice a week at this point. They still need to play daily, even if it's half a season before production and opportunity come calling. Astudillo is not my perfect choice to be the 26th man. And you don't have to be a fan. That's OK. And he's no super-sub. But when someone just needs a day or two off, or gets tweaked during a game, or you need to shuffle the lineup late in a game, he's exactly what he needs to be: a guy with a decent bat and decent glove who can fill in here and there. I'm OK if and when he is gone because it means someone better has replaced him. But right now, he does hold value.in his role.

I'm a fan. I enjoy watching him and rooting for him. But I have no illusions as to who he is and what his ceiling is. He is an OK glove...not a good glove...pretty much wherever you place him. He can make contact and hit with some pop as long as his free swinging style doesn't get grossly and maddeningly expanded. (Which it did a few times previously). Someone is going to take his roster spot in the not too distant future. But he is a good fit for the last guy on the bench who plays a couple times a week or comes in late if you're shuffling the lineup. But for now I'm more than OK with him as that 26th man. I'm also OK if they have someone they like better. Just not sure who that would be at the moment.

Heaven needed a 2B glove man who could handle the bat a little bit and it was time for his call up. He seems to have lead a full life. How many of us are ever lucky enough to do what we truly love for our whole life?

First, just a brief personal bias/rant. I'm fine with 13 pitchers. I love the 26 man roster vs the previous 25 man version. I thought the 28 man roster in 2020 just worked so well I'd like to either see it kept, or compromise for a 27 man. But I admit part of that is I can't get the player roster down to 13 from what I want! LOL I think you have the bullpen just about pegged, with the obvious caveat concerning the 8th spot. Hamilton over Anderson makes sense on paper right now, today but we'll see. The elephant in the room is Thorpe. Despite everything he's gone through injury and illness wise, and despite WHATEVER happened to him in 2020, the FO has stuck by him to this point. Is he on a last gasp? A few thoughts: 1] Robles: He's had a very solid, nice career before 2020 with solid numbers across the board. At only 30yo, I'm going to very surprised if he doesn't have a solid year in the 7th/8th while closing out a few wins. 2] Stashak: I forget his SSS when I take a second look because he's just been so good thus far. And despite lack of great velocity, what I have watched is confidence and control. The guy moves the ball around and just HITS SPOTS ever time I watch him. Foregoing a 3rd pitch, he may always be a middle man. But that's OK. All he seems to do is mix it up, hit spots, and get guys out. I've got him written in pen, no pun intended. 3] Thielbar: I read about increased velocity before his signing that I didn't see in 2020. But like Stashak, he worked his stuff up and down, in and out, and pitched multiple innings at times. He seemed be a PITCHER. But I think the jury is still out. I want to see more, but I'm hopeful for a couple years based on what I've seen. 4] Alcala: I know what he has and what I saw last year. I will be surprised if he isn't part of the back end of the pen before the season is done. 5] PROSPECTS: While I hate to admit it, the reports of Colina just not developing a 3rd pitch and his FB not nasty enough to stay in the rotation appears to be true. But he has enough velocity and a potentially wicked slider to be a BP weapon. He will be in St Paul when they need him. Maybe it's just a hunch, but it seems the FO still believes in Chalmers as a SP. With his pure stuff, I sure hope they are right. But he can't be discounted as a potential major pen weapon, whether it be sooner or later or temporary and transitioning back later. Do I need to say "everyone else"? 6] SURPRISE: And I don't mean Derek Law or Gibault, Waddell, Anderson, Hamilton, Minus or anyone else. I fully recognize we are talking about the bullpen structure NOW, but history has shown us the FO recognizes value when available and pounces on it. I will be very surprised if the current FA options don't allow such an opportunity and someone mentioned above isn't displaced in February for a late sign.

Kinda feels like we signed a waiver wire clone of Shaun Anderson but with a little less ML experience. And that's not a knock just an observation. EVERY team takes fliers on guys EVERY year. The difference is how smart your scouts and FO people are, and what your staff does with them. Example #1: The previous might have "blown it" by letting Hendricks go while he still had options. And that's a mystery we will never have an answer to because that previous FO did a great job of transitioning internal arms to the pen previously. But we also have to remember, it took more than a couple of years before Hendricks found himself as a RP. Example #2: If everyone was always right, the Twins never would have added Berenguer, Atherton, Willis, Gurierr (sp?) back in the day. And that's just a couple older examples I bring up simply because Hendricks has been in the news/conversation as of late. There are, of course, many other examples, including some recent ones, but the salient point is quality bullpen arms come from a lot of places. Some are drafted/developed in the minors. Some are "failed" SP who become quality relievers. Some are guys who fail at the ML level and bounce around and then figure something out and turn out to be good/great bullpen arms. Interesting thought by Seth Hamilton could be passed immediately through waivers and pass a couple more teams and remain in the organization. But the debate still exists as to a 40 man crunch for Hamilton or anyone else. Whether it's a small move or a major move, I believe a SP candidate will be brought on board. Depth and competition are important. The recent additions/moves regarding Anderson and Hamilton would SEEM to indicate the FO is done in the pen. But are they really? We've seen a number of moves made in February previously and there are still decent options out there looking for work. Any combination of Gibault, Waddell, Anderson or Hamilton being run through waivers with the intent/hope of retaining them are a viable option for an addition or two. Whether you like him or not, Astudillo is probably not one of their first choices. Again, whether you like him or not, he has versatility, has shown the ability to hit at the ML level, and can at least field everything be gets to and get in front of the ball for the ones he can't. That may sound like a gross understatement to support the abilities of a ML player, but it's really not if you've watched enough baseball in your life, lol. Point is, there's still room to add to the 40 man.

I really like this signing a lot. Colome is proven and has gotten the job done, and done well, on a very consistent basis. I understand peripherals and some of his aren't crazy good, but those same peripherals don't always add up to what a pitcher actually accomplishes. As an example, and playing a little devil's advocate here, would the Twins have been better off spending $2M more and keeping May? And I'm asking honestly. May has the greater velocity and higher K numbers. May, who I like, MIGHT reach another level yet in the consistency department. But there absolutely were times when he was wild and coughed up a big double or HR before settling down. Again, I like the guy and didn't want to lose him. But is Colome maybe the more experienced, proven and consistent choice? There are a lot of people here at TD, including Parker, who are WAY smarter than I am with statistics, arm side run, and various other portions of pitching discussions. But one thing I do know is having a staff of cookie cutter pitchers is not a good thing. ML hitters make adjustments and love timing. A big part of successful pitching is messing with a hitters timing and approach. You want the guys on your staff to offer some sort of variety. And this goes beyond simple handedness. I mean, if all your pitchers, especially the pen for this discussion, all through a similar fastball and slider with the same arm angle and release point, hitters could just sit back and make their adjustments. While Colome's cutter may have slider characteristics, it also has a variance that offers that different "look". And I like that. I have a really good feeling about Johnson and company getting Robles back on track, same with Rogers, and continuing on with Duffey and Colome to have a strong back end of the pen.

I don't know what to do but shake my head. Twins sign a milb/AAAA journeyman with high BB rates and limited to poor success and turn him in to a solid 60 game contributor. They aren't certain about his future, or his arbitration numbers, and dont like him not having options. Now, they trade a 5th/6th OF who probably doesn't figure in any plans beyond 2021 for a similar version of Wisler...with options...who has just begun to transition to the pen. Same age or younger, just as good of stuff, cheaper, has that option, perhaps even better floor and ceiling...yet to be determined...but the forward thinking Twins are suddenly backward thinking here?

While I like Wade and think this might work out for him, I think there was zero room for him after 2021 with the Twins without a serious jump. Instead, we get a live arm just transitioning to the pen with potential. Probably good for both teams, but think the Twins "win" this one on initial speculation.

This is the Wisler replacement for less money and still having an option. Might be a year or so younger, but not certain. Big slider and mid 90's FB and you expect Johnson to help him improve on either or both. Indiana made a very smart comment while also being funny, he is the perfect scenario this FO and staff look for; former SP with stuff just fully converting to the pen. Johnson will tweak his stuff. With a little luck, his FB will find a little more improvement, or any 3rd offering will give him just that little something extra in addition to his slider. Assuming he takes Wade's spot on the 40 man. Also makes me wonder at this point if Clippard and any other BP arm is done other than a milb signing

At some point, payroll for 2021 will hit a wall. I'm not sure we are there yet considering need, opportunity, FA depth lagging behind signing expectation, and a FO that is known to make late moves based on value and opportunity. We can all debate priority, but there are THREE obvious areas to address IMO. 1} BP: I just don't buy Rosenthal at this point. But the sheer number of RP arms on the market screams a late signing that could pay dividends. The FO is smart enough to identify the options and we don't have to make a list. But for $2-3M I am still shocked Clippard isn't already on board. His only negative is never putting up HUGE numbers to earn big notoriety or big contracts. All he did in 2020 is do what he's done his whole career; get out consistently against batters from both sides of the plate. I will be borderline shocked if he isn't signed the next week or so. He's affordable and needed. 2}SP: I would LOVE the FO and ownership to just accept a $140-150M payroll and just sign Odorrizi, Paxton or Walker on a 1yr or 1+ deal. And I could easily make arguements for any of them from production to "if healthy" to "young and if finally healthy". But even if we didn't go this route, there are going to be guys available for just $3-4M on a 1yr flier that could be worth a look. Some may be available on a milb deal with an invite. The Bailey signing last year was cheap and smart. If we had a normal 162G season, he may have paid a really nice dividend. So while I doubt Bailey would want to come back, and I'm not sure anyone knows what's up with Hill, just think along those lines. And maybe I missed a signing somewhere, but just to toss out a few possibilities; Arrieta, Fiers, Foltynewicz, Hamels, Porcello, Teheran. KNOWING you are a legit contending team, and KNOWING you will need more than 5 SP, do you make the big move to add to your depth? Or do you like the depth you have so much you are willing to gamble a bit and bring in someone on the cheap to compete? Even if it's a milb deal and invite, SOMEONE needs to be brought in. 3} INF: This the CRAZY ONE that nobody seems to pay attention to. Adding another quality infielder would seem to take away from Arraez opportunities, which nobody wants. Additionally, having a 6th INF option means there may not be room for Rooker, unless Kepler is the CF option and Cave and Wade both are left of the roster. OR, you start with 7 BP arms instead of 8. But if you are a legitimate contending team, and you have at least some concern about one of the best infields in all of MLB having a potential ankle, knee, calf injury from being all you can be, would you be smart to enough to take advantage of so many FA options on the market to add depth? Would you bank on Gordon, Blankenhorn and a couple milb infield options to fill in? Or would you spend a couple $2-3M for a 1yr deal on depth and let the chips fall where they may, understand IL time WILL HAPPEN here and there, and trust Rocco to balance playing time? The 40 man is full. There is room for a couple additions/deletions to make an even better one. Adding 3 more could be painful/hard. But if we're talking about real depth, real value/opportunity, real contention and allowable budget, a hard decision or two might be in order to build the best contending team we could have

Is Pillar a good idea? Yes. I was really hoping for him at the trade deadline last year. He's experienced, proven, plays good to great defense still, has some hit ability and some power and some speed. Considering how late it is in FA, he might come cheap. He's been on my "not needed but would be a nice luxury" list depending on payroll, contract terms, etc. Is Pillar practical? Unfortunately, no. And that's an indictement towards him or the idea. At some point, payroll will be maxed out, though I don't believe we are there yet. But one more solid BP arm really helps and probably helps more than another OF option. Further, whether it's a cheap back of the rotation SP or a much bigger move for Oddo, Walker, etc, one more SP option for depth and competition is important. And while it may be overkill, I would LOVE to spend a couple $M and take advantage of the crazy infield depth options still available. But is it overkill if the market presents you opportunity to add insurance in case knees and ankles and calves suddenly cause nagging headaches? IMO, all of these are more important and beneficial than adding Pillar. (and I'd like to have him). And whether you like Cave or Wade or not, having one of those guys as the 4th OF option...potentially...is more important than Pillar and allowing yourself to add additional pitching.

I am even more impressed now with Simmons for his courage to stand up and tell everyone "hey, I'm human, and I've been struggling hard with something". How many of us not in the public eye would have the courage to admit a similar issue in our lives? In the words of Lou Brown: "go get 'em kid".

For whatever reason I've read recently that there are expectations for the NFL CAP to be $195-200M. If true, it means they are maintaining pretty much status quo. Still brings up a Barr situation. Don't want to diss on the guy, but tell me what he brings exactly for his $? Re-work or let go. Pray to NFL gods Spielman will trust in his scouts and coaches and pick a couple OL in the 3-5 round who can play. He and they seem to do a good job with early and late rounds. Draft the best DL you can at 14, and then focus on OL,DL, S, maybe another WR in the mid or late rounds.