DocBauer

If the intent is to add as good as Gray, and I'd include a healthy Male, there are some FA out there that I like as possible options at least close if not as good for, what I would expect, in the $14-18M per range. Bassitt, Tallon, Wacha, Walker, Eovaldi are just a handful of names at 30yo plus that could provide solid, mid-rotation production and reliability. Quintana saw a huge resurgence in 2022 and could be very interesting on a short deal considering his career and his 2022. None are top of the rotation arms, but all have the ability to challenge for the #3 spot and throw better than that at times. And while many, if not all, have some question marks, they all offer a lot more potential than Bundy or Archer. I am NOT opposed to making a trade. Not in the least. Even with moving a lot of milb talent last year, the Twins system is NOT decimated. While not all are rookies any longer, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Ryan, Ober, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Duran, Jax, Moran, Wallner, Lewis, Martin, and Julien are a collection of arms and position players who are all generally young and have either reached the ML level or are very close and should be part of AAA in 2023. And there are a few other "interesting" guys I'm forgetting or leaving out for the moment. And not everyone is going to reach their potential or make a difference. But the "problem" in the system is that so many are at the highest level, or very close, and then there is a major drop off...with a few exceptions...until we get to A and rookie ball. Prospects are there to build your team and to also be traded to build your team. But unless there is just a really smart deal to be had whereby we can acquire a really quality arm that doesn't "rob" the ML roster or "decimate" the system, I'm just tired of trading away young talent right now. So again, I'm OK with a trade if there's a really good deal that makes sense. Maybe it would be a pair of deals where we get said SP and trade someone else for a couple prospects. Maybe a 3-way trade. But, IMO, Rodon is the almost perfect addition to be added via $, and dispense with the whole trade idea. He will still only be 30yo in 2023. He's coming off a pair of quality back to back seasons. Being LH sure doesn't hurt. There ARE injury risks associated with him. I get that. But he's a risk worth taking, IMO. He's not the proverbial ACE SP, but so few are, and they're not usually available. Verlander, DeGrom and even Nola, aren't coming here for 2023. And while you/we can argue at length about the Twins and modern baseball throwing pitchers only 5-6 IP per start, the Twins are good at "managing" IP for their starters. A quality BP that has some middle relievers is paramount, but I think they are very close to having a really nice 2023 pen with depth and versatility with what they have at their disposal, while adding at least one more reliable, proven arm. And when you are a mid-market team, some proverbial ACE doesn't just drop in to your lap very often the way Correa did. Or the way Morris did back in the day. You need to build the pen, have depth everywhere on your staff, and TAKE A CHANCE. Rodon IS that chance. The Twins wanted him for 2022, but the Giants got him. The Twins called the Giants in case they were in "sell" mode because they wanted him again. He's the perfect choice, even with risk, as the books are mostly clean, and will be again in 2024, even with an extension or maybe two. Give Rodon 3 or 4yrs at $25M and make it happen. The payroll can afford it, he fits a need, he can make a difference, and even at 26-28GS and 160 IP, and no more, he can make said difference. The risk/reward quotient, to me, just leans heavily towards the reward side.

I'm doing this a bit different than others have as we've all seen the proposed salaries and expected names listed over and again. I thought about waiting until the WS was done to see if there were any surprises in cuts made by other teams in the post. But I don't see enough said surprises on the horizon to make an impact. A couple brief notes: 1] I DON'T see a payroll cut. The current payroll MO of the Twins has been to stay about dead center of total team payroll the past few years. And while finances and inflation issues could be discussed, there's an awful lot of $ still flowing in to MLB and I seriously doubt we see any league wide cutting of spending. In fact, I'm still expecting a normal, leage-wide bump in spending. It may not be large, but it's normal in the cost of doing business. Further, if ownership is concerned with butts in the seats, the best way to fill those seats is to put a good product on the field that wins, competes, and provides excitement. 2] I am taking the approach, as an amateur, fantasy FO, that is keeping in line with a "normal" approach in that I'm not going to trade the system or go nuts by blowing things up. And working AS the hypothetical FO, I'm actually looking out for my job, so I want to fill needs and build the best, most competitive team I can without some crazy blowup. On PAPER, my team has few holes to fill to be quite good. But I simply can't trust in so many potential "IF's" as to not provide my team with even greater depth and options. I need and want my team to WIN and compete, put butts in the seats, without depleting what I have been building. 3] Lastly, total dollars to spend is a little unsettled depending on what you read and who you listen to. I'm going with a recent breakdown, that was very detailed, by Gleeman and John on their podcast, that I believe reflects the TD Blueprint spot on or very close. With Pagan gone one way or another, even after arbitration, the Twins should be at about $95M before trades or FA. Enough preamble. But it's going to be detailed. CATCHER: The Twins don't HAVE to add a LH option, but it would be nice and advantageous. Fortunately, there are 2 quality options to add to Jeffers in Barhart and Narvaez. They're quality, experienced backstops who are OK hitters with occasional power. They are 32 and 31yo. I like both. Narvaez has more experience in the AL, has a better career OPS, and is coming off a $5M deal. MY SIGNING: Narvaez for $6M per on a 2yr deal for $12M per. I might even toss in a 3rd option year as the Twins best catching prospects are all in A ball. SS: Yes, this is a hole to be filled. I'm obviously looking for a reliable stop-gap. And I'm really torn here. Two FA in Iglesias and Andrus that fit the bill perfectly, though with different thoughts about each. If the Yankees just dump IFK, he might be my 1st choice as he's similar defensively, probably better than either Iglesias or Andrus, and probably only slightly more expensive, and offers a little more defensive flexibility. If they don't cut him, we'd have to trade for him, though he'd probably come fairly cheap. And I've heard sound ideas for trading for Jorge Mateo from Baltimore, coming off his best season. His 2022 season shows pop/power and SB speed/production, but he also can't hit or get OB. So how much is his offensive "explosion" worth or real? Frankly, while I think the Twins milb system is still pretty solid...a little top and bottom heavy with not much in the middle...I just don't feel like making a trade unless it comes REALLY CHEAP. And I just don't trust an additional output season from Mateo, who again can't hit or get OB, and I'm not sure a year of IKF is anything more than a contract for Iglesias or Andrus. Call it a gut hunch, I like Iglesias just a little more than Andrus's uptick in 2022. Their career OPS and numbers are almost the same. My gut tells me defensive history will make Iglesias the better choice. MY SIGNING: Iglesias for $6M. ($1M bump from 2022) OF: The Twins have needed a solid RH hitting OF for at least 2yrs now. I never bought in to Celestino to be that guy in 2022 despite his start. He just wasn't ready and Garlick is just an OK, reserve kind of option. The Twins need better than that. Larnach has flashed how good he might be healthy. And neither of his injuries are chronic, just unfortunate. With hope, luck, and surgery, Kirilloff will still be the 1B/OF/BAT we all hope he can be. But in no way am I banking on AK being 100% ready for the start of 2023. And while I think Wallner will be pretty damn good and dangerous, I would love him to get a little more AAA time just to polish his defense a little more at the least. I'm NOT saying to NOT trust one of your best prospects and his potential and run with him. What I AM saying is, when you have some questions about your OF construction and have Kepler on board and under contract, maybe you hold on to that to begin your season. Look, even as a fan, Kepler should just play a great RF, and fill in behind Buck once in a while with Gordon, but should always hit no higher than 5th, and should be in the bottom 3rd most days where he can be dangerous. But despite various thoughts he might be/should be moved, I want him in RF in my model to begin 2023. Who IS the RH option that makes sense? Pollock would be nice even at 35yo, but he's coming off a down year and a player option for something like $13M. So he's not available. Wil Myers has never been worth his contact. At 31yo, would he take a much smaller deal? McCutchon, even at 36yo, MIGHT offer value as RH option for one more year. But the guy I'm looking at, and the Twins should be as well, is Mitch Haniger. He's a late bloomer who's battled some injuries, but he's produced when healthy. 32yo, he's not going to get a major or long term deal. He only made $7.75M in 2022 and I believe, is arbitration 3. Even IF the Twins move Kepler, he's a perfect fit for the RH bat the OF needs. (He's even got 70 GS in CF as a sub option). And right now, there are ZERO RH OF options close to the ML level in the system. MY SIGNING: Mitch Haniger at $10M per 2yrs with a possible 3rd year option and buyout. BULLPEN: Honestly, I really like the initial BP makeup for 2023. I SO WANT to just re-sign Fulmer at $5M and be done with it. I always expected some regression from Lopez because what he was doing was unsustainable. But we saw flashes and the stuff is still there. Duran, Jax, Thielbar, the improvement of Moran, Alcala back, a HOST of possible MR that includes Sands, Winder, and Henriquez and others...all of whom could still move to the rotation in time...makes me think just bringing back Fulmer, who has been VERY SOLID in his year and a half conversion to the pen a smart choice at said $5M. And then someone, Riverbrian, mentioned Hand on a 1yr $6M and I gave pause. Moran's future looks pretty bright. His reverse splits are excellent. Why not a 3rd LH option for the pen who is proven? MY SIGNING: Hand at 1yr and $6M. (But I'm still OK with the RH Fulmer as an option). STARTING PITCHING: The Twins, again on paper, are just fine here. Verlander and DeGrom are not coming. Nola has a $16M team option and I don't see the Phillies not picking it up. But with ANY kind of health, a rotation of Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober Is deep and pretty damn good, especially if the pen is well constructed. Varland, SWR, Winder, maybe Henriqez and Sands and a rebounding Balazovic all provide depth. But if I'm the FO/GM, I HAVE to approach 2023 just EXPECTING that something is going to go wrong, and someone is going to be hurt. I have clean books for 2023. And while there might be logical re-signs for 2024, Kepler, Maeda, Urshela, Gray, and Make might all come off the books. It's time to be brave and bold! Sign 31yo Rodon to a 3yr $25M per deal. Maybe toss in a lesser deal with a buyout 4th yr. I know he's not an ACE, but there are so few. And I know there is some injury risk. But he's coming off a pair of healthy and excellent years. Even at 28 GS and 160 IP he's a potential season changer. With clean books now and the immediate future, this veteran LH, who you've already been tied to and like, is worth the risk. MY SIGNING: Rodon. Time to take a 3-4yr plunge. And his signing DOESN'T interrupt any pipeline migration as Ryan and Ober might be mainstays, but there's room for Varland and SWR and others to contribute and be ready for 2024. I'm not trading if I can help it. For ONCE, I'm being aggressive and getting what I want and need. And not blowing up payroll or mortgaging the future. And YES, I'm cheating on the roster due to options and "expected" injuries that allow for some flux. CATCHER: Jeffers/ Narvaez INFIELD: Arreaez, Miranda, Polanco, Iglesias, Urshela, Gordon (OF) OUTFIELD: Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Haniger I DESPISE a 12 man player roster, but this allows for a 13th man to be added immediately, such as Garlick as a RH specialist or another utility player, maybe a sudden riser in Martin, or the Twins opening the season with a 14 man pitching staff, which I'm not sure they will need. This allows a healthy AK to make the roster and give the ENTIRE roster and lineup even greater position and roster flexibility. STARTING PITCHING: Rodon, Gray, Male, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober. A 6 man rotation or someone in the pen or on the IL. Again, I'm hedging bets that SOMEONE isn't ready to go. BULLPEN: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Hand, Moran, Alcala, Winder, WHOEVER amongst many, including SP options who may contribute to the pen as well as the rotation during the season. So basically, a 27 man roster cheat with 1 spot TBD between pitching or a player spot and expecting at least one injured pitcher, or sent down on option to reach 26. I'm right about $148M at this point. Right about where I expect the average 2023 ML payroll to be, keeping the Twins also average. The entire team is improved overall, except for SS, with solid depth. And there is room for young pitching to show and $ off the books in 2024 to account for the one big SP signing. Nobody is blocked. And there is room to let go or trade both Urshela and Kepler at any time, more or less. but I'm bringing both back to start 2023 to make sure I have a lineup in place that I can count on. Kiriloff and Wallner will have a say about that. But all they do, along with the young pitching arms, is give me more room for potential trades, and more clean books in 2024 with even more young talent stepping forward.

Absolutely one of my favorite players. And, IMO, one of their very best. I think he's vastly underrated by many. He's a competent SS but a fine 2B. He hits, gets OB, makes contact, is very difficult to SO, has legitimate XB and HR power, runs the bases well, and is one of my top choices to be at the plate in a clutch situation. His only negative was a year and a half of ankle issues that decimated his production, though he still played. I believe he was in the top 2-3 of most all Twins offensive categories the first half of 2022 before an injured second half. I may be wrong, but it was his back and/or something else but not his ankles. So that may be a good thing?? Still only 29yo, I think he has a lot of ball left in him. I don't think he's going anywhere for the next couple of years, and that is very much a good thing. HOWEVER, and I almost hate myself for saying this, I can see a few different scenarios over the next couple of seasons whereby Lewis, Martin, and Julien may be younger, cheaper, possibly healthier, and possibly just as productive. But for now, I just want him 100% for 2023 to help lead the offense.

There are a lot of ways to build a lineup. And while it would be great to have an All Star type candidate at every position, it's just about impossible to have that. If Correa is not a re-sign, then a new reality applies to the 2023 Twins; "how best to spend $50M to make this the best team possible, and who plays SS next year?" If the Twins truly believe in Lewis....to a lesser degree probably both Martin and Lee...then a stop-gap of some quality makes sense. And there are a few to choose from, with Iglesias being amongst them. Andrus would also apply as a solid option. The aforementioned IKF would also be a quality candidate, if made available cheaply or simply released. For the short term, the offense would be obviously lacking much punch from the SS position. But the Twins offense would not be decimated in any way with a 100-120 game Buxton and a healthy Miranda, Arraez, Polanco, Larnach, Kepler with a RH OF option, Jeffers and a good partner, Kirilloff, Wallner, etc, etc. Plenty of potential for a non difference making SS in the batter's box for a half year or so with the lineup a healthy clubhouse should provide. Just no butcher with the glove or sub .200 hitter please!

Almost exactly echoing Chpettit19. I voted the Padres for now, if a winner truly exists. They seemed to give up nothing to get a couple good months of Rogers. That's pretty much it. But the Bewers and Twins basically got nothing from the deal initially. The couple good starts from Paddack were more than wiped out by the damage Pagan did. Now, if Paddack comes back healthy and good to go in 2024, then the Twins end up probably winning in the long run.

I don't think Colorado would do it either, unless it was indeed part of a dump of sorts. But it's an idea brought up in this thread, and another before, so I offered up a thought. I do wonder if Colorado should rebuild and maybe the Twins could help them with that and maybe Kepler could be part of a deal. In general, I'm a bit ambivalent about adding a SP. On paper, I really like our top 5 with some young depth that needs opportunity, and will probably get it. But if I'm the GM...maybe even a little worried about my job after a pair of bad seasons...I almost have to approach 2023 with the idea that at least one of my SP will have a devastating injury. And as a result, I'm thinking it might be nice to have too many options vs too few. I don't want a repeat of last year. And I do find Marquez to be an intriguing option if they go that route. But I don't see Kepler as a #1 piece in any kind of deal. And I'm not sure he's going anywhere in 2023 other than the Twins OF. But that's all off original topic.

Kepler should not bat leadoff, in general, or be a #3-5 hitter, in general. He should hit lower in the lineup and be rested against LHP as much as possible. But despite his inconsistencies, he's basically a league average hitter for his career. So he's never been bad as a producer, just never/seldom been a very good one. The change in shift should help, it's just hard to know how much. Another 10 hits? 20? But continuing to hit weak grounder toward the 1B-2B hole won't allow for any improvement. Note: I'm not sure Kepler is traded anywhere with current youth/injury questions in the OF. (But again, they absolutely MUST add a decent RH OF). But were he moved, I love the Colorado idea for Marquez. I'd love to see what he might do with a change of scenery.

I hadn't honestly considered Bogaerts previously as I simply expect Boston to step up and keep him. His offense has been pretty damn good previously and yes, he just might be a solid 3B/2B after 3 yrs and even DH a little. It's not a bad idea really. But....why pay him $35M per for 5yrs and not pay the younger Correa the same $ for an additional 2-3yrs?? We're talking same annual cost and the same age the contract expires. I don't like the idea of my SS being transitioned in a couple of years to another spot because he can't play the position any longer and costing $35M. I think I'd trust Correa to stick at SS longer were I a betting man. And his sticking at SS longer works for Lewis, Lee, Miranda, and probably Julien as well to flesh out the infield. Not to mention Polanco may not go anywhere. Again, it's not a bad idea on the surface. I just don't see any solid fit after the first couple of years.

I'm a huge fan of Polanco. When it's a clutch moment, he's one of the top 2 or 3 guys I want at the plate. But I'm not so sure Julien doesn't replace him over the next year or so. Defense needs to improve, but boy can he hit and get on base. Throw in the power and good base running and we might really have something here. I was really surprised when he debuted in 2021 and he just keeps getting better.

Hold on a second, I'm also interested in Andrus as as a fill in option. But disregarding a resurgent 2022, Iglesias actually has a better career OPS, slightly, and all almost identical OPS+. And I'm surprised by that, but the numbers are there. I'm not dismissive of IKF from the Yankees if he comes cheap prospect-wise, as I think the Yankees are ready to turn SS over to their coveted prospect options. (But it would be weird to be a Twin again after being one for about 3 days). And he's a nice ballplayer. And I'd have no problem with him as a 2023 fill-in, and potential trade option if Lewis comes back ready to go. But even though I think the system is still strong overall, I really don't want to trade for someone unless it's cheap, or acquires a really stud kind of pitcher or position player. I've seen a few ideas of Mateo on a, hopefully, cheap trade with Baltimore. It's an intriguing idea for speed and some pop, but the guy can't hit and , can't get OB. So, IMO, that leaves Iglesias and Andrus. So what makes you so down on Iglesias vs Andrus considering their career numbers? A 1yr resurgence from Adrus in 2022? I'm interested in both Iglesias and Andrus as a short-term SS for 2023. I "like" both for this role but don't know why you dismiss one over the other so definitively.

I would go with Iglesias. I've checked the career numbers of both and they are nearly identical across their quad slash lines, but Iglesias has a slightly higher career OPS and OPS+. He's also a bit younger, has a better career career percentage, and is coming off a $5M payday so probably isn't looking for the $ that Andrus might be expecting after how much his last deal was worth.

To be fair, Kepler has pretty much been league average as a hitter until 2021-22. That, combined with his defense, made him a pretty good player and positive WAR producer overall. I don't recall what Garlick's OPS was against RH pitching, but thought it was in the .600's somewhere, which is better than the typical, "average" LH vs LH league wide OPS. But yes, Garlick was a mediocre defensive OF who could only smash LHP, which made him a specialist. And Celestino did NOT belong at the ML level after a short AAA audition in which he finished well in a SSS. The Twins should have done better. They need to do better. The roster should be built in such a way you have better overall talent than a group of specialists. Now, ONE of Celestino or Garlick can make some sense. But I've been stating for a couple of years now to get a solid, quality, RH OF to play both corners adequately and give guys days off, particularly against LHP. It hasn't happened yet. But it needs to now.

Perhaps my belief is tinged with a dose of hope, but I think Lewis is the guy. I'm not predicting GG defense, but I believe he will be good and be a heck of a hitter. I'm happy to be proven wrong by Martin sticking at SS! But I think he's a LF/CF who can cover 3B and 2B and I think that's where he ends up. A SSS right after being drafted is not enough to convince me Lee can't be a SS. He's got the experience, the arm, the hands and the instincts from all reports. I guess the question is does he have that right kind of athleticism to play SS at the ML level. Well, a few other, larger guys who weren't exactly speedy turned out to be very good SS. So let's let him play a little longer before we decide for sure. But I do find the idea of a left side of the infield of Lee, Lewis with Miranda at 1B very exciting. 2B is open to a few nice possibilities, including Martin and Julien and some others. I'd like to re-sign Javier on a milb deal and see if this is finally the year something starts to click. He's talented enough and young enough I think you give him that next year. Cavaco has been a huge disappointment. I wonder if, despite poor numbers, if he just needs a change of scenery and a re-start by jumping up to A+.

Honestly, if the Twins don't/can't go big with Correa, I don't think I'd trade for any of these three. We've traded enough already. We have the financial flexibility to add via FA. Iglesias and Andrus are probably just as good of an option as these 3 overall. They are probably a step down defensively, (everyone healthy), but probably a step up offensively. And they cost a 1yr deal and no prospects. I'd rather go that direction.

Absolutely agree with the first part of this post very much. Not so much in agreement with the thought of trading away some of the younger players listed as I think they remain part of the future as well as being inexpensive. As to the OP, no, it makes no sense to go after any of the other top FA SS for many reasons. CC should be the guy if they are going to do it. I've never had a problem moving Lewis to another position. Always thought it was a silly arguement that a very talented player was "wasted" by moving them to a less demanding defensive position. Who cares if a guy could be a really good SS, but you have someone better or as good there, so you move the other player to 3B or 2B. So you have an elite player at a spot other than SS? And this arguement has been made in the past, and I just don't understand it. I mean, the Yankees were pretty good and won a whole bunch of games, even a couple of WS IIRC, keeping their HOF SS in his natural spot and placing Rodriguez at 3B. Oh, what a waste! Lol The truth is the Twins CAN afford to keep Correa at SS and thr books are clean enough to do so. The truth is the Twins have a lot of young talent reasonably priced or cheap now, and a couple just getting their feet wet. The truth is there are several veterans who CAN be off the books in 2024, but not saying all will be or should be. But there is financial flexibility now, as well as the near future. IF the Twins are going to make a move like this, it's the perfect time. I object to the idea the Twins don't have some potential star players on hand. A healthy Polanco is about as good as it gets, same with Buxton when reasonably healthy. Unfortunately, they have a LARGE group of POSSIBLE star players who have had setbacks in their development. But there are some damn fine looking players just ready to break out, if healthy. So I agree that IF the Twins are going to go all in, now is the time. I still have reservations that ONE GUY can make that much of a difference. He could, if the rest of the team around him is as good as the rest of the Twins roster could be if we can just get everyone on the field and playing to their potential. Is CC's potential $ better spent elsewhere? Maybe. I've been torn on this. Both sides of the debate are right, spend BIG, or save and spend AROUND both work if the plan of action goes according to plan. CC is affordable. Keeping him makes the most sense if the Twins push the 2023 payroll to $150M in order to make a couple other additions. (With $ coming off the books again next year). It turns out bad if they don't augment, and everyone stays hurt, and the prospects just don't turn out as good as hoped for. (Not all of them). IMO, BOTH sides of this intelligent debate are right. Keep CC...a star talent which you need...and spend a little more SMARTLY, to augment with $ coming off the future books and keep developing your young talent. OR, trust in that young talent and spend the CC $ throught the roster to make the TEAM better as a WHOLE. I'd like to see Correa remain a Twin and push the 2023 payroll, knowing your books are POTENTIALLY still relatively clean in 2024, IF you develop and trust your young talent. I understand full well his last couple of years will PROBABLY make him an expensive bench player, or a 2B with someone else taking over SS. But common sense for a mid market team has to be "how much can we expect to BURN financially his last few years?" My answer is 2yrs. And who knows how the market is going to work! My answer to a re-sign is 7 or 8 years for about $260-280 MAX. That's about $33M per. I'd even suggest front loading the first few years by a couple of $M, just to keep the last couple of year more financially flexible for the rest of the roster, even though, hypothetically, revenues and payroll will rise. To me. That's still a little steep. I'd rather see 7-8 at around $250M but not going to quibble. Considering the Twins ARE mid market, I'm not going to be upset if they "finish second" on a deal like this. I WILL be upset if the FO just drags their feet for months on end waiting to see how things turn out and ignore other options. The WORST thing the FO can do is nothing while sitting around the campfire and just being overly patient. There's still a season to be played and the constructs of a potentially pretty good team for that season.

I hadn't thought of Haniger, to be honest. There's a lot of upside there to be sure, even at 31yo. I could get on board with him as I'm having a tough time trying to figure out another RH OF who isn't old. (Or coming off a big salary they probably didn't deserve but are used to and may be over pricing themselves). But he made $7.75 last season and you have that basically being doubled this year in your blueprint. I'd say that's a little high.

Trade Pagan? That Randball Stu sure has a great sense of humor doesn't he? Wait...we're being serious here? He has something like the worst WPA over 3yrs in MLB and the highest ERA with 50 IP or more over the same time frame. I'm at least close on those numbers. Striking out 3 or 4 of 6 batters faces sounds great until you realize there was hit, walk, and 3 run HR that just blew three game. If someone actually believes they can do something with him, more power to them, send the Twins a decent A ball flier or some international signing $. Otherwise, PLEASE Twins FO, just let go. Stop falling in love with re-treads and stubbornly giving them chance after chance. Just let go and move on.

I know it sounds crazy, but questions in the OF play a part in this. And by that, I mean the questions surrounding Kirilloff. In a best case scenario, AK is a very good 1B and OK OF. That creates a great deal of roster and lineup flexibility. It's not disrespect or not believing in top young talents like Larnach and Wallner, or even a healthy rebound from Kepler, but the presence of Kirilloff affects both the OF and the INF. IMO, Miranda will be OK at 3B, and possibly pretty good with work and experience, even though it's POSSIBLE Lee might take that spot in the near future. But that's for a possible future, and not NOW. Arraez is not a bad 3B by most all metrics. And he did a great job at 1B while learning the spot on the fly. But to COUNT on AK is a mistake at this point. So the Twins might be better with Arraez still playing a lot of 1B and Miranda continuing to move between 1B and 3B. All of this tells me the very solid, good but not great, Urshela has great value to the 2023 Twins at $9M. He could, of course, turn out to be a decent trade chip next season. But I would only move him now if he was part of a really nice package, OR, the Twins just really needed the extra $ for a deal or combination of deals, such as a Correa deal while still trying to add someone else. Otherwise, I think his greatest value is to be part of the 2023 Twins.

NOT saying I don't want Correa back for 7 or 8yrs at around $30-ish per year. I'm a fan! But I have to keep wondering if that money isn't still spent better all around the mound and diamond instead? I understand Maeda is probably off the books come 2024. Maybe the same for Gray or Mahle, but they are less certain. And it's debatable still as to whether Martin sticks there or not. Same for Lee. I still think a healthy Lewis probably trumps both those guys. I'm just saying, keeping Fulmer or adding someone as good or better, adding another quality arm via trade or FA, etc, is the payroll for Correa possibly spent better when spread around? On the side of a fill-in to at least begin 2023, Iglesias and Andrus are the solid but lesser options. As I understand it, Andrus did. It meet qualification for his $15M option. Despite a comeback year in 2022, at 34yo, Andrus is just still not going to earn anything close to that in 2023. What's interesting to me is that while Andrus would seem to be the better offensive player between himself and Iglesias, more overall power and, at least previously, more speed, the two of them have very similar quad slash lines for their careers as well as career OPS÷. And I was shocked to see that, unless Bassball Reference is wrong somehow. So to me, Iglesias would seem the smarter choice just based on performance and previous earnings.

Stashak has been pretty reliable when healthy and has options, but, missing almost the entire season due to injury and not looking very good before being shut down, I'd say he's off the 40 man. There just isn't room for him. Enlow was really looking like he was starting to figure some stuff out before he blew his arm out. I'd be surprised if the Twins kept h for 2yrs only to dump him now. He needs 2023 to prove he's got it going again, or is never going to get it going. As glfar as being a reliever, I think that's way off base. Until the Twins announce something different, I'm sure he's still a starting pitcher who finished in the pen just to curtail his IP.

With the exception of a few players and a few teams, the SB is just no longer a major part of MLB. It's more if a surprise or occasional weapon. IMO, the larger bases and limited throws might see an uptick in SB attempts begining in 2023, but I don't expect any huge increase. The game now is about power and launch angle and OB %. So while a strong armed catcher is great to have, it's not close to what I believe to be the #1 requisite for a catcher. Above all else, he needs to be able to call a good game, provide a nice target, and have the confidence of the staff. Jeffers has all of that, even if we remove the pitch framing aspect. At one point last year the Twins had something like 20 games where they allowed 3 or less runs in a game and Jeffers caught like 14-15, of them. His bat potential is still there and he was heating up before his injury. He's not close to old and has room to grow despite having a couple full seasons under his belt. Could Jeffers throw better or more accurately? Yes. And I hope he works at it and improves. But he was better in 2021, so I won't get bent out of shape for a 2022 dip. I don't know who his co-catcher will be, though I have a couple veterans clearly in mind at this time, but I like Jeffers in his role and his offensive potential.

Look, again, I don't apologize for the FO when they make mistakes, IMO. Even when they have and still do good things, and have done good things, from the top down, I'm more than willing to call them out. But this vitriol about brining everyone back is a bit nuts. And I'm NOT saying I.'m 100% on board with this or surprised or happy. I'm just saying there needs to be a little perspective here. #1] NOBODY can predict injuries. The firing of Sanchez came with that caveat as Falvey was very clear that the organization was looking for a different approach to training and recovery to insure they were doing things in the best possible way. You CAN'T predict a bounced ball breaking Jeffer's thumb, for example. And to be fair to the fired Sanchez, when you can't even speak to your team during a lockout in regard to their training, you're kinda on a certain hook you can't control. Right or wrong, in a different organization to begin the season, Mahle has stated his arm/shoulder/velocity issue might have been throwing too hard and too long and just got tired. BS? Maybe. I don't doubt the lockout messed with at least some players, if not a bunch. And that's not necessarily a trainers fault. But when you see a pattern of soft tissue injuries, coming off a weird offseason, but some repeat issues, it's GOOD the FO wants to take an overview look at everything they've been doing. Would you want less? 2] I am surprised Maki was retained as the pitching coach. I thought they might make a major search for the "right guy". And it's been speculated the Twins simply "settled" on Mak because he's a "team guy" and the players like him. With a whole offseason to hire whoever the hell they want to, they decided on Maki because he was convenient? Need I remind anyone that Maki was the BP coach, which is basically another assistant pitching coach, before being given his current role, and the Mets current pitching coach was the FORMER Twins BP coach in Hefner. So is it possible the Twins just kept it too damn simple in a promotion of someone, reportedly, sharp and on board with the structure put in place by Johnson, and could have done better? Maybe. But maybe they just have a really sharp guy getting his 1st best shot to prove how good he can be. 3] Watkins can be better as a 3B coach. But when was the last time ANYONE said they had a great 3B coach? I agree he just blew a few plays. But he also read the defense and opportunities to score and was right many times. I agree he needs to get better, but his coaching ability has to be considered along with his ability to be the 3B coach. (More on that later). 4] Are Popkins and Hernandez applauded for OB and driving runners in from 3B and derived for not being able to advance or drive runners in from 2B? There are seriously strange issues with the Twins 2022 offensive production. Is that the coaches or the players? Look, I'm no expert on this staff. I expected some changes. But I've also seen this FO's choices for so many coaches being plundered by other teams to have at least have some belief they know what they're doing. We've been plundered Rowson, Johnson, Shelton, and Sawyer just in the last couple of seasons. So I'm willing to give a little leway as to their decision to keep what they have, even if I'm a bit unsure. I think we also have to remember that this current staff has 1yr together, or less than that on the pitching side. I DO BELIEVE that Rocco has the ultimate responsibility to make his coaches actually COACH, and change up the daily instruction needed to have a competent team on the field defensively and base running, but I don't know that the coaches kept aren't quite competent. My biggest concern is Tingler. He might be smart as hell. But is he the voice in the ear that Baldelli needs to hear? Rocco is NOT a great manager. He's OK with some smart ideas. What he needs, IMO, is an older, more experienced voice to guide him. And I am disappointed that Tingler was kept more than anyone else. I think bench coach is being ignored.

Agreed that the top SS are most likely to re-sign with their own teams. And if one of them moves on? Well then, that team probably signs one of the others. I just don't see the Twins signing any of the SS other than Correa. Not saying they can't or it won't happen, just saying keeping him makes the most sense if you're going to go big. That being said, I just don't see $250-$300M for 7-8 years by the Twins. I won't be unhappy if they do. I just don't believe it will happen. Just too much for too long and I don't see Correa doing 6yrs. And I don't see trading for a stop-gap unless the player cost is small and it's for 1yr. Now, it's possible said stop-gap might be traded at the deadline to another team hurting for a SS, but that's a whole different topic and an assumption that Lewis 100% and good to go by July-ish, if not sooner. I kinda liked Andrus as an option, but is he really going to opt out of $15M in 2023 thinking he's going to get a better/longer deal? Iglesias just might be the best option. I fully expect the Twins to spend money this offseason. It might be for a powerful corner OF bat. It might be for the best arm they can get their hands on. (Rodon is risky but has been tied to the Twins twice in the last year. Maybe?) I just don't know that one of these top SS is going to be the right answer. I think the money goes elsewhere, they find a "decent" short term option, and trust in Lewis, etc.

A good concept, but not a new one. I recall when Cleveland took this approach in the late 80's and early 90's. While it didn't pay off in a run of WS appearances or wins, it kept the core of the team together and provided a long run of winning seasons and contention. It can make real sense for both sides, and provides a sort of "insurance" for all parties. I like the approach and it was smart as well as beneficial for Polanco and Kepler. Not so much of Sano, but if you look at total production, the Twins weren't exactly fleeced. The contract signed with Buxton this past offseason is a similar approach, despite not being in his early 20's and having some injury issues. You're still betting sunk $ cost/value versus what MIGHT BE. I don't buy in to the fact that a player reaching the majors at 24-25yo is probably not a great prospect. Right now, he's very likely a year behind due to covid and the lost 2020 season. Secondly, not everyone is a HOF'er or multiple All Star, and said mid-twenties player can still have a very, very good career as a starting player or roster fixture for a good 7-9 years. BUT, a lot of those players won't be FA until they reach about 30yo, so an extension is questionable for a lot of them. But I wouldn't say no to any young player who puts in at least a couple quality seasons and shows real upside. But I would always insist on a couple, healthy, productive seasons before I go long term with them. The toughest area to figure might be starting pitching. There are arms that break down and are just never the same. But then again, a lot of front line, #1 types and even a lot of proverbial ACES don't achieve that status until their late 20's. By that time, you might be too late for a "mutually friendly" option. So overall, yes, I like the idea of locking up my young players as much as possible. It makes good business sense and works for both sides.

Not going to actively debate who should be #1 because there's a lot of reasons to pick Miranda or Correa as well. But I do feel Arraez is deserving. I understand and appreciate analytics. I understand and appreciate OPS and it's overall impact in ranking a player's value/production. But without legitimate power production, it's going to be hard to have an .800 OPS. Arraez had his highest numbers, mid year, and still finished with outstanding numbers, despite battling a bad hamstring to end things. Where I think analytics sometimes fail is when a player does something different or unique. Arraez's 40 XB was just fine for his role and not only will possibly increase slightly over the next few years, but would have been higher if healthier the last couple of months. (Like about everyone else). But he is one of the best pure hitters, contact hitters, and OB% batters in all of baseball. It's a unique and special skill set. And because of it, he fits a special role and place in the Twins lineup. And to me, that increases his value beyond standard analytical data. For the 1st half of the season, at least, who else would you rather see up at the plate in a pressure situation? Arraez is there to set the table and set a tone. But he's also got tremendous ability to "continue " and inning and still knock some guys in. Debatable choice for sure, but he's worthy of the award.