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Everything posted by DocBauer
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So the LHRP has been signed in Rogers. And for far less than expected. That actually checks off 1 of my points. So what's next?
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Look, it's been a long day for me, and I'm tired. So I'm not going to get in to some long debate with anyone about value vs age and performance and cheap Pohlads. And since this is page 4 already, I don't even know who's going to read this. Rogers was putting up some really good numbers with the Reds before being traded to the Cubs. For WHATEVER reasons, he didn't perform well after the trade. STILL, his OVERALL numbers, even post trade, were still pretty solid: 3.38 ERA/ 1.382 WHIP/ 47 hits in 50 IP/ 9.4K per 9 IP. NOT the Rogers we all knew and loved back in the day, but solid numbers. (Better before the trade). I don't even know if there was a truly great LHRP on the market out of the Twins price category or not right now. And if there were, it's a moot point. But there were FOUR LHRP at age 35 or older available who had really solid 2025 seasons: Rogers, Coulombe, Chaffin, and Thielbar. Old friend Thielbar, the eldest of the 4 options, had a great rebound season and turned it in to a $4.5M re-sign with the Cubs. Not sure that makes sense for a soon to be 39yo, but good for him! Rogers was expected to be signed for at least $4M based on productions. I remain surprised by his deal. I would have been happy with a return of Coulombe for $3M. Who is the better pitcher is debatable. Rogers is NOT a pen savior. And nobody should be expecting that. BUT he IS, presumably, still a solid LH option with TONS of experience coming off a solid 2025, even with a bad Cubs experience. Is he better than Funderburk? Do we care? So let's rewind for a moment. I've been following Funderburk especially close since he transitioned to a RP. He's got solid stuff. He's flashed at times. He's also stunk at times. You can either look at his last 2 months of 2025 as a brief flux in his career, or, you can say that when given a 3rd chance in his ML career, he FINALLY started to figure some things out. I am NOT projecting Funderburk to be anything special, but it IS interesting that when the pen was imploded, and he got an opportunity, he suddenly looked better. Did maturation happen before our eyes? I also have to respond to Prielipp expectations. Falvey is a master at GM and "coach" speak. But he doesn't lie. When he speaks about Prielipp as a potential BP arm, we should listen, even if our heart wants him to be a STUD SP. Were I to bet $, he wouldn't break camp with the Twins. I'd expect him to get IP to WORK on his stuff and get ready for a ML debut out of the pen. A few lower leverage innings at first, just to get settled. Let's just say June 1st for giggles. And there would be NO REASON why the Twins couldn't have 3 LH RP. What's really important, IMO, is the next move. There is no bad 1yr deal. And the FO NEEDS that ONE MORE quality signing from the RH side. And I'm sure who that is, but damn, it sure makes sense to bring in a power arm like Dominguez for around $7M ish. Why is he still available? He'd a perfect, hard throwing RH option who could help bridge the younger RH arms in the system to larger roles. Leclerc and Phillips are also available as viable options, I just like Dominguez better. I still believe in my heart of hearts that Festa should be in the pen for all the reasons we've all discussed and debated, despite the Twins not saying so yet. But it would be silly to put Festa in to a closer role Opening Day, when you could have a veteran to take on a bigger role Day One. Rogers and whoever is signed next...and I absolutely believe there is another signing coming...aren't BP saviors. They are solid place holders to lean on early for the younger arms to settle in and grow in their role. Nothing is guaranteed for sure, but I can see a method to the madness with Rogers and another quality RH being added BEFORE Prielipp, Raya, Festa, Lewis, and Klein are put in to tough positions.
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Reverse Engineering a Trevor Larnach Trade
DocBauer commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM
I struggle with the best FIT oit there since I'm just as well versed as to other teams holes and the "use" of Larnach on their roster. I do see valid aeguements for the A's, the Reds, and the Pirates. It seems he could be the LH primary DH and a part time OF for those clubs. Do the Twins look for a salary dump and just ask for a prospect? Or do they add a decent prospect in the deal for someone ready to help now? I'd like him to be moved for another team's "Varland". That is, a younger PEN ARM that is just converting, or has just converted, has potential, but is maybe the 4th RH option currently. In other words, a side young arm with some stuff and potential, but not someone who is amongst the top 4 arms that said team just wouldnt want to give up. The other option might be a solid backup SS/utility player who is, frankly, better than the weak options the currently have in their possession. Think a Mears, Reboulet, Punto type. (Names from the past I know, but the comparison is valid). It alleviates a LH OF bat they have too many of. It prevents any blocking of the young OF scheduled to debut this season. It removes $4.5M that might be better spent elsewhere. And it adds another pen arm or solid utility player better than they have now. The other team gets a solid LH bat to fill a role that really isn't that expensive in modern baseball economics. -
I'm really surprised it's for only $2M. He's not the pitcher he once was, but he was still solid in 2025. I kept reading $4-5M was his likely landing spot. Is it possible the early run on pen arms...which seems to have slowed...actually worked in the Twins favor? Now go grab the best RH option out there and help stabilize the pen from that side. It's not all about depth. It's also about a couple veterans to help show some of the younger guys how to go about their daily business. That's also where Hawkins comes in to play not just as a coach, but as a guy who's been there, done that, for a long time. Smart, solid, and somewhat surprising move. Here's hoping he had 1 more really solid season left in his arm.
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IDK, shouldn't the debate be a healthy Ober throwing like he did prior to his injury deflating 2025, and the SWR we saw the 2nd half with greater confidence in his splitter, which one of THOSE is the better pitcher? Ober back to 100% and SWR throwing for a whole season like he finished in 2025, I think you have a real, honest debate.
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I think there is a general thought that should be moved. I actually think he has value, but I don't see a "fit" for him on this team as it's constructed. Whether it's a prospect, or, he's packaged for some #4-5 decent pen arm from someone's current pen IDK. But it also frees up another $4.5M, so the payroll drops from $100M to approximately $95M. I also don't know if Jackson is of any value. But I agree in looking to see if he can be moved. But his $ value is pretty low. So a trade, a DFA and St Paul stash...even though AAA has catchers already...doesn't have any major impact on payroll. IMO, the signing of Caratoni, as I've stated, means the payroll plan is more like $110-115M. That should mean there's room to add someone like Dominguez for $6-7M. The fact he's still sitting there would seem to indicate that's about right. Then, how about Rogers for $4-5M? Again, the fact that he's still available tells me that's about right. Coulombe and Chaffin are also still looking for a home and would probably cost around $3-4M, slightly less than Rogers. WITH Larnach on the roster, that puts payroll around $110-112M. Obviously, without Larnach, the payroll would be around $105-107M. That seems viable to me. And it's still well below the $132M opening day 2025 payroll number. And if Larnach were moved, and $115M was a target point, there's still around $8-10M available to add. Again, this is all speculation on my part, based on current moves, past moves, as well as past payroll numbers that have "nudged" a little higher than expected, while still not being high. That "extra" available $ might mean Kiner-Filefa on a 1yr deal for $3-5M might be in play. While he might not be the player he was a couple of years ago, he'd still be a viable ML option across the INF with a bat that would almost certainly be better than the mixed bag of waiver wire options at UTILITY that are currently in the mix. I mean, if someone goes down with any injury for a couple of weeks, do we want Kreidler starting anywhere for more than a game or two. You might even be able to squeeze in a 3rd FA pen option in for $2M as a middle man option and hit that $115M proposed target, which is still about $8-10M LESS than how the 2025 payroll ended. OR, you could send Wagaman down to AAA since he's on a minimum deal, KEEP Kreidler as a SS/CF option and grab Ramon Urias...who I kinda like...as a 1B/2B/3B option for around $4M. (He can also be an emergency SS if needed) He's a "competant" player and bat who switch hits. And the Twins LOVE switch hitters. And his career splits are almost dead neutral. Either way they go, a $115M payroll allows for 2 competent FA arms to deepen and stabilize the pen, add leadership to the young arms, you add SOMEONE who can cover 2B and 3B without being an automatic OUT at the plate. It's the Twins choice to replace either Kreidler, or Wagaman with a better UTILITY option to make up a better, more balanced bench with better options. And we hit the proposed $115M projected max payroll that has been "squeezed" by Falvey in the past. Again, this makes sense to me based on roster construction, and the cheap ownership watching their pennies, while STILL being bellow the FINAL $120M-ish that was the final 2025 payroll. This is what I see as logical and obtainable. It just makes sense! And it's potentially a pretty decent team to finish above .500. And it also allows for young talent to debut without being blocked. But for "shits and giggles", to borrow an old expression let's fantasize for a MOMENT where TOM ISN'T just being a blowhard Pohlad, and Falvey's elbow still has some "nudge" ability. And let's say the $120M end of 2025 season is actually acceptable. Larnach is moved. Payroll is around $95M. Dominguez and Rogers are added for $12M approximately. The payroll still sits at $107M. You then add EITHER IKF or Urias for $4M...depending on how much you want Wagaman on your roster...and THEN you sign Nathaniel Lowe to a 2yr deal for 2yrs at $9M per. And since he's still "out there" maybe he signs for a little less? Lowe, no pun intended, is coming of a "low" season. But even in the one of his worst seasons, he was still productive. He's only 30yo, and his 18HR and 84 RBI in a "bad season" would have been welcomed in 2025 for the 2025 Twins. His signing settles 1B as a competent 1B and generally productive bat who has solid splits against LHP so he doesn't have to be platooned. And he allows Bell to be a primary DH, where he should excel, only having to play 1B once in a while. And LF suddenly becomes the only real position question mark between Martin and Roden and Outman. To quote Vikings great Chris Carter, "COME ON"! Perhaps I'm only living in a dream for the 2026 Twins. But I can see a solid team based on a $115M payroll. But I can also see a $120 payroll, still in the bottom 3rd, where they could have a comment team.
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This is probably going to age as well as a 14 day old bread, but I can't help myself. I DON'T see Caratini as a good value to eat up the rest of payroll. That doesn't make sense considering how the FO views catching, PLUS the OBVIOUS need to still add SOMETHING to the bullpen, which the FO has been very vocal about. So I suspect the $100M payroll that at least SOME have projected is not accurate. Again, this may age poorly, but I don't think Jeffers is gone as many knee jerk reactions opinionated. I think he stays for a FO that kept the core intact and states they want to compete in the ALC. But with $100M payroll as of TODAY, and with the idea that SURELY we must have another $10-15M yet to spend, what would YOU do with what's left? Do you think Falvey, as he's done in the past, maybe nudges the Pohlads a bit higher based on value? Does Larnach still have a role? We're coming closer to "crunch time" based on FO history. And I have my own opinions. But I'm throwing out "what's next" to the community.
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Minnesota Twins Have Shown Interest in Seranthony Dominguez
DocBauer replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think you got it right. I've been holding back any further comment here until the Twins signed Caratini, and the opinions that have followed. Dominguez is not a closer, with oy 40 career saves. And I don't know that he's an ideal set up man or not. But his career numbers are really solid, with a solid ERA, BB and K and hit per 9 numbers. Most importantly, he is experienced and still throws hard. IMO, the Twins have a payroll closer to the $110-115M mark rather than the $100M mark others have speculated. I'm basing this on the signing of Camariti, the obvious need for some experienced help for the pen that the FO has repeatedly spoken of, and past seasons where it seemed Falvey always squeezed oit a few $M over what was "supposed" to be the budget. It's my belief that Festa might be the Twins next closer, eventually at least, but there are valid arguements for another couple of logical options. While Dominguez is probably not going to reinvent himself as a closer at 31yo, he could be a VALUABLE bridge on the late innings for at least part of 2026. And while he's one of the best arms still available, I'm thinking as of today, January 19th, his $ value may be closer to $7M than the projected $8-9M I read about a couple months ago. IMO, he might be the ONE ARM left worthy of $7M that could actually make a difference in the late innings for the 2026 Twins bullpen as a veteran closer/fireman until Festa, Sands, or someone else takes control. Rogers is also still sitting out there from the LH side. As are Coulombe and Chaffin as other veteran options. Again, the offseason at January 19th isn't over, but it's starting to get late. How about a $7M signing of Dominguez tomorrow and Rogers for $5M the next day. That puts the payroll at $112M. The Twins can't do that???? SOME kind of trade for Larnach would save another $4.5M. But regardless of Larnach being kept or not, and a poor fit for the current roster construction, IF the payroll could be stretched to $115M...and I can't believe I'm saying this is acceptable...the FO would still have a couple $M for a 3rd late signing BP middle are come early February. -
I believe he was simply a floor setter until things got further down the road. I didn't like moving Eeles in the deal simply due to depth at St Paul, regardless if he ever turns out to be a ML player of any sort. But similar to Farmer a few years ago...albeit on a somewhat smaller scale...they "got a guy" to fill a spot. Then the opportunity came along to add a better guy. I don't know if they will try and move Jackson somewhere, or if he just ends up DFA. If someone claims him, the Twins financially are only out about $550,000. It's also likely he goes unclaimed, and like Dobnak the past few years, he would be a guy you could bring up, waive, and would probably re-sign with St Paul again. But then again, they've still got Pereda as a rostered #3 catcher, Cardenas, and Winkel already at AAA. And if they promote Olivar to St Paul...while mostly a LF...that gives them yet another guy who can catch. So I don't know that the roster management for acquiring Jackson was all that smart, even for the cost conscious Twins, his contract isn't any hindrance.
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I just can't believe the plan would be to keep the core of the team intact...which the Twins have been pretty vocal about...and then ADD Caratini to STENGTHEN the position/team with a better duo, and then turn around and WEAKEN the position/team by moving Jeffers and going with a pair of backups as your new duo for the season. What could Jeffers bring back that would make enough of a difference to improve the team in one area but also weaken the team in another, and make a positive affect? I don't see the logic of a team that keeps their core in an attempt to compete in the ALC but would play a game of positive/negative with an endgame that wouldn't do anything to actually create a positive. I'm only guessing here, but I think Falvey has more $ to play with than has been speculated. Jackson set the floor, Caratini raised the floor. Jackson could be traded. He could also be DFA and hide in St Paul the way Dobnak "hid" there. With the debatable Larnach still on the roster taking up $4.5M, th3 payroll sits about $100M AFTER the Caratini signing. So what if the payroll is actually $110-115M? That means you IMPROVED by adding Caratini and STILL have some $ to add some veteran arms to the pen for depth and experience. Meanwhile, ownership still has a payroll less than they finished 2025 with. Why does that make more sense to me? Now, you tell me the budget is $120M and we can move Larnach's $4.5M? I've got another idea. But for now, my gut is telling me Jeffers is sticking around and this was an unexpected move to actually make the team better.
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2026 Minnesota Twins International Signings
DocBauer replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the increase in arms selected is probably a reflection of the new guys in charge. I hear what you're saying about our top signee being rated in the 30's. It doesn't sound very exciting. But after seeing so many highly ranked 16-17yo washing out and a lot of depth signings turning out to be quality players, I've just come to the conclusion it's almost impossible to predict kids this young. More than the ML draft, it's "trust your scouts and hope for the best". Lol- 42 replies
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- enmanuel merlo
- abel sosa
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How Kaelen Culpepper Can Keep Forcing the Issue in 2026
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
To be clear, I was speaking about th3 INF and K-Pepper in particular, which is why I referenced 1 prospect at a time. I think Houston is ahead of Winokur by a good year, and I'm a Winokur fan. Houston is a year older, probably has a little more natural contact ability in his bat, and if his glove is potentially as good as advertised... potentially elite...he doesn't have to be a great hitter to make his mark. I'm still not sure where Winokur ends up. He's got the athleticism and arm for 3B. But he also runs so well, with that big arm, he could make a great OF. I've often wondered if long term he wouldn't be a better CF option than either Rodriguez or Jenkins just because of body type. But he could also be a 20/20 man at 1B with Gold Glove potential defensively. How awesome would that be? (He could still play some OF as well). But I do think Winokur has got to show an improved overall contact rate to reach his vast potential. -
How Kaelen Culpepper Can Keep Forcing the Issue in 2026
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Welcome to Twins Daily! I am going to disagree with your take on Keaschall, however. While I want him to stick at 2B...and would stop all this talk about playing the OF for 2026...if his best position turns out to be 1B, I'm OK with that. Carew was never a great fielder, but he fit better at 1B and had an amazing career. All Star, Gold Glover, and Silver Slugger Darin Erstad played CF for the Angels, but also saw time at 1B. Ditto for Cody Bellinger. In recent Twins history Arraez provided a unique skill set without much power or any speed as a top of the order hitter. So when I look at what the OF and INF could/should soon look like for the next few seasons, I can see 1B being a good landing spot for Keaschall if he just can't get the mechanics down at 2B. Not saying he can't or won't, but having his bat and pop and speed at 1B would be fine for me if that's what seems to make the most sense. -
How Kaelen Culpepper Can Keep Forcing the Issue in 2026
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm not as down on Lee at SS as some. I like his hands. And while not a great athlete, he seems to make a smooth, quick transition and can throw decently off balance. But being solid...with room to improve...he's just never going to be the athlete that Culpepper is. Lee could still improve at SS and probably will. And hopefully, he will transform to a .270 hitter with a .330-ish OB% and produce 30+ Dbls while continuing to provide HR power in the teens. But K-Pepper simply has more potential offensively and defensively. Ideally, he stays healthy and continues on his quality trajectory and is ready by mid season. That changes the depth and versatility of the INF. Does K-Pepper take over SS? Does he debut as a fill-in at first? Regardless, I see him at SS at some point and Lee becoming a valuable utility INF who should be able to also contribute as a 1B. He'd probably play almost daily between 4 different spots. While Houston might provide elite defense in a couple of years, I'm only concerned with 1 prospect at a time. And right now, that's Culpepper hopefully on the fast track to improve the team defense, offense, and depth -
2026 Minnesota Twins International Signings
DocBauer replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
8 pitchers? Did I count that right? I could be wrong, but I don't recall them signing anywhere close to that many arms for some time.- 42 replies
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- enmanuel merlo
- abel sosa
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I guess I'm going to end up repeating myself here. 1] The Twins have had Garver, Castro, Jeffers, and Vazquez almost exclusively at catcher the past several years. Jackson set a floor for a relatively cheap deal, but now they have a better option to work in a 60/40 split with Jeffers. It also allows Jeffers to DH against LHP and have a guy at catcher that isn't a black hole in the lineup. 2] We simply don't know what the payroll ceiling actually is. With Larnach still on the roster as of now, we should be about $100M. Many have conjectured that's the payroll. But how do we know that? What if it's actually closer to $115M? That's STILL less than where they finished 2025, but still with room to add a couple veteran pen arms to assist in the rebuild and provide some leadership. Maybe there's even room to add another backup SS/utility option better than Kreidler, though I don't know there's actually anyone worthwhile left at this point. But I don't think this signing is an automatic indicator that Jeffers is being moved. Or that no other signings aren't coming. I still don't see the fit for Larnach on this team, but let's say they spend $10-13M on Robertson or Dominguez, for example, and brought Rogers back home? Or maybe Coulombe instead of Rogers for a little less $? If the payroll actually is in the $115M range, and a couple decent veteran arms are brought in, the Caratini signing makes a lot of good sense. If not, then it becomes a questionable move. We should know more over the next couple of weeks as January is counting down fast.
- 57 replies
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- victor caratini
- ryan jeffers
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Only speculation on my part, based on how they've built rosters before, and without actually knowing the payroll ceiling: 1] Jackson isn't very expensive, cost little to get, and helped set a floor. The FO has done this before. A fairly recent example was Farmer before Correa. Farmer created an unexciting but decent floor, and then became a good utility player once Correa was brought on board. 2] Since this FO took over, the catcher position has been handled almost exclusively by Garver, Castro, Jeffers, and Vazquez. Caratini gives them a better all around player than Jackson, a better 60/40 time share option with Jeffers, can play a little 1B here and there when needed, and allows Jeffers to DH against LHP without having a black hole behind the plate when he does so. 3] Considering point #2, I'm not sure Jeffers is traded. Maybe at the deadline depending on how the team is doing, but I don't see the sense in keeping your core players in tact, but then moving Jeffers and turning catcher over to a 55-60 game starter and another backup who can't hit a link. 4] They strengthened catcher, and are only paying about $1M more for the position than they did last year. This might indicate the projected payroll is actually more like $115M-ish, and not $100M as some have conjectured.
- 47 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- victor caratini
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Opening Day? Rodriguez has the best chance for OD, and I've been championing that idea for some time. With only 1 option remaining, a good, healthy ST, I'd give him his shot. If he needs a re-set od any type, I'd rather it be sooner rather than later. But service time, time missed in 2025, and the Twins wanting to take a look at Martin and Roden, I'm betting he begins the year in St Paul. Presumably, Gonzalez can also hit RHP decently. So no, I don't believe he's used as strictly a platoon bat. So when he does come up, he'll play on a regular basis, no matter the pitcher. But he's also a great candidate for a 1B trial. I like the inclusion of Fedko even though he's not on the 40 man. He's got a decent eye and some contact ability...witnessed by his career MILB OB%...along with some power and speed. Yes, he's a late bloomer. No, he's not a top prospect. But he's reportedly a quality corner OF, can cover CF acceptably here and there, and can also play some 1B. That's a solid resume for a bench guy. At at 26yo, you don't mind him being an occasional lineup presence. But I doubt he makes it OD. But I can see a possible fit. (The bench isn't great at this point). I think Raya is behind Prielipp and Klein simply because he might need some better success before getting his ML debut. But I'd like to add Cory Lewis as another OD option. His control abandoned him in 2025, but he still had a quality 10.7 K per 9. Dialing his repertoire down a bit, throwing hard as possible for 1-2 innings, and that CRAZY knuckleball of his, he might be a ST surprise.
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- connor prielipp
- marco raya
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Inside the Twins First Base Pipeline
DocBauer replied to Cory Moen's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Mendez should have been included as he's a MILB player converting to 1B. Amick also should have been included as he's been splitting time there as well as 3B. Sabato has been a disappointment for sure. His strong AA in 2025 didn't carry over to AAA past his first couple of weeks there. (His college career still marked him as a solid prospect). There was a time when teams used to draft 1B. But the game has changed over the decades. But even Hrbek was a 17th round pick back in the day. Doug Mientkiewicz was a 2B/3B, IIRC correctly, before moving to 1B. Morneau was originally a catcher before moving to 1B. What's been bizarre and unexplainable to me is the FO lack of vision as to what a quality 1B could mean to the lineup. I love the idea of moving Mendez to 1B since his OF defense is questionable. Considering the same, in addition to prospect depth, why aren't Gonzalez and Rosario also being mentioned as possible 1B converts? Over the years, the FO has "shoved" Sano, Arraez, and Solano over to 1B and basically asked them to learn on the fly. (I do believe Salono had played at least a little 1B previously). So why would you "shove" someone to 1B at the ML level but not be imaginative to maybe do that at the MILB level where a kid with a strong bat could LEARN the position while coming up? I understand you don't want to move someone off their "natural" position too soon, but if you're not sure said prospect is a quality defender at X position, why not move him to 1B and still allow him to play a few games in his X position as well, just in case? It's so damn frustrating! Imagine if Gonzalez or Rosario could play a competent 1B and have a decent bat with 20+ HR power? And I'll take it a step farther, what if Roden and Fedko...who have previous 1B experience...could provide solid gloves, decent bats, and a mix of pop/power and speed at 1B? Wouldn't that be a good thing? And both could be squeezed out of the Twins OF picture if/when Rodriguez and Jenkins debut. Another step forward? What if Keaschall's arm never comes back...it probably will...or for some reason his athleticism just doesn't translate to being a GOOD 2B? (I think it will). Then how about K-Pepper takes over SS, Lee moves to 2B, and Keaschall becomes a solid 1B with a great offensive game but just not the power you expect from a traditional 1B? There are SO MANY WAYS to have a solid 1B who can contribute offensively in various ways instead of leaving it as a dark hole position that seems to change yearly. This FO is lacking imagination for a position that may be at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but has the potential to be a big producer in the lineup. -
OK, on the surface I love this addition. Caratini was my DREAM FA signing to be the #2 and work with Jeffers. I just didn't think they could afford him, so I was looking at others in the $3-4M range. Caratini might not be quite as good as he used to be defensively, but he's a solid, experienced option with a good bat for a catcher. The fact that he has almost neutral splits makes him that much better as a pickup. While recent draft picks at catcher haven't turned out for the Twins...though I still think Cardenas will turn out to be a solid ML backup...the FO HAS made catching a priority. That's why one of the first signings they ever made was Jason Castro. And they followed that up with the drafting of Jeffers in the 2nd round, and gave Vazquez a 3yr deal when everyone else only offered 2. (You can debate that at length if you care to). I say that to remind everyone that Jeffers/Vazquez cost about $13M combined in 2025. Jeffers and Caratini are a combined $13.6M for 2026. Only a small bump on payroll, but a better offensive combination. Now, it's possible Jeffers is on the move. Not disputing that. But only Tom P and Falvey actually know what the 2026 payroll target actually is. Financially speaking, again, Jeffers/Caratini are almost neutral in $. So either Jeffers is on the move...which I dislike for a variety of reasons...or the projected '26 payroll may be closer to $120M than $110M. YES once again Larnach has to be moved. While 1B is NOT being handled the way I think it should be, the roster construction is too heavy at 1B and DH and potentially crowding out younger, cheaper players with better defense. IF this signing IS an indication of a $120M-ish payroll, they just upgraded the catcher position. And the fact that Caratini CAN play 1B here and there as needed, with a split neutral bat, only adds flexibility in late inning moves or injury. And there's STILL room to add a Dominguez and Rogers/Coulombe to the pen IF the payroll is actually more in the $115-120M range. IF Jeffers is actually moved, I'm not crazy about the catcher position for 2026. But I guess that's a wait and see arguement. In regard to Alex Jackson, I'm going to trust the MLBTraderumors statement. Were Jackson DFA, and someone picked him up, said team would be responsible for his salary. If not, he could sign with the Saints for more than he'd probably get as a FA. He would essentially be a "Dobnak-like" player who could be stashed at AAA; useful, but too expensive for someone else to claim. I don't know if that's great roster and financial management, but I believe that's how it would work. But Pereda, Cardenas, Winkel, and possibly Olivar as a catcher/OF already on hand, St Paul may have a strange crunch behind the plate.
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Here's my honesty as a fan. I really, really wanted Festa to not just be a good story as a late round selection ,but especially when I saw his potential as a SP at the ML level. And I really, really wanted Prielipp to be a good story about a highly regarded LH arm who might be a STEAL for the Twins. Grudgingly, I have had to adjust my thinking. As I also remembered thinking it would be awesome if Duran were to be the next top of the rotation SP. And I had real hope for Varland as well. And to be 100% honest, I misplaced hope for more than a few past Twins pitchers. Festa has proven he can do serious damage 1 time through the lineup. Like Duran, his body just seems to suggest this is his best path ML success and profile. A 4th offering, like Duran learned, only means you are growing and adapting. And Prielipp really did have a great 2025, and even flashed at times. But he wasn't actually the best MILB pitcher overall. But he's got some great stuff! And the truth is, considering IP from college to MILB, despite not being OLD, where does he fit? I used to argue staying with him and let him develop and become a ML SP at 26. Why not? But I'm coming around to the thought that maybe that's just not his career path. I'm not saying he couldn't follow the Santana and Liriano path, but considering his history, maybe his best path to ML success, like Festa, is in the pen. I don't expect Festa or Prielipp to have immediate success. But Festa HAS ML experience. Prielipp still needs some AAA time to adjust. But he could be an awesome LH setup man relatively soon. Closer? We'll see. I still like Festa in that role. I HATE seeing dreams of SP not turning out what I WANTED them to be, but I can also see the potential of terrific arms in the bullpen.
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Homegrown, High Picks, and Hard Questions
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm going to have to disagree with the OP that NOT having more players on the team from OUTSIDE the organization is a bad indicator. In fact, I think it's just the opposite. While the Twins have "blown" a couple early round picks...and EVERYONE does...the fact that they can field a starting lineup with almost all home grown drafted and developed players is a very positive indicator. Now, don't get me wrong, we haven't exactly seen all of the players listed play completely up to their abilities as of yet, I'm not blind, but the talent, and at times, the production HAS been evident for the most part. So let's examine the provided list; BUXTON: He's an absolute stud when he's been healthy enough to perform. He's absolutely one of the most talented and exciting players to ever wear a Twins uniform. He's learned...much like Hunter did...to not always sacrifice his body. His migraines seem to be under control. With all due respect to medical science these days, what's MADDENING to me is that something as seemingly simple as removing his plica in his bad knee could have been done BEFORE 2023. What a difference that has made! We're finally seeing Buxton as a 100+ games played performer the past 2 seasons. But could it have been 3 years instead? While he's over 30 now, he's still DAMN good! LEWIS: His knee injuries are certainly not his fault. Unfortunately, crap happens. We've seen him awesome. We've seen him bad. And we've seen him OK. And despite everything he's been through, he's STILL only 26yo! His improvement at 3B, a decent 2nd half, the most games he's played ever in 2025, and the fact that he felt good enough to begin running again in 2025...successfully I might add...gives me hope his body is "settling in" from physical changes. Now, can he begin to STAY healthy going forward? Can he find an approach/swing that feels comfortable? He doesn't have to be the Superman he's flashed previously to be very good. I sure wouldn't bet against a 26yo with that much talent. WALLNER: He had a solid debut and 2 years of an OPS of around .875. That's OUTSTANDING. I know he got an early season re-set each of those seasons, but IMO, those re-sets were far too long. He's always going to be a bit streaky, and the Twins should recognize that and understand that. But you can't dismiss how good he was in '23 and '24. Injuries affected him and messed with him for 2025, and his OPS was still above league average. His terrific arm mitigates being an average OF, and he's best as the Twins primary DH, and he doesn't even have to be a .875 OPS hitter to be damn good. I'm certainly not betting against him being really good in 2026 and beyond. He's already shown how good he can be. LARNACH: Look, I don't dislike Larnach. But he doesn't FIT the team going forward and should be moved however possible. We've all discussed this at length. And he's never developed in to the hitter/producer we hoped for. But for a 1st round pick in the 20's, he's become an AVERAGE ML hitter. That means he's achieved about a 70-75% outcome for a 1st round pick. While some might not recognize that, or just refuse to accept it, that's a positive result for a said draftee. Doesn't matter he doesn't fit and he should be gone at this time, for this team, his outcome has been a success. JEFFERS: He's not great defensively, but he's OK. I think he might have slipped a bit in 2025, but he's solid as a game caller and handler of the staff. He's been about average as a thrower, though that can be affected by the staff as well. And he's consistently been one of the best offensive catchers in MLB since his debut. KEASCHALL: It's kinda weird to put him in this conversation considering he is just coming off his rookie season. Especially considering he was also coming off TJ surgery, and then got the same arm broke on a bad pitch. Despite all of that, his MILB performance and rookie ML performance has been tantalizing. He should be the 2B for ALL of 2026 and the whole idea of experimenting with him in the OF is misguided as hell. The fact that he COULD be a good OF, and spend time there, is great. But he has the potential to be the best, long term 2B for the Twins since when? Since Knoblauch maybe? KEEP him at 2B and let him settle in and develop with a healthy arm and tons of athletic ability. He's got the ability, just let him adjust again to the nuances of the position. LEE: I kept him for last for a reason. I am SICK AND TIRED of so many people banging on Lee. He was drafted in 2022, rushed through MILB because he was productive, and debuted in 2024 with 172 official AB. The ROOKIE standard is 150 AB. So he entered 2025 22 AB away from being considered an actual "rookie". When drafted, there was a general consensus that he could "handle" SS, but was probably a future 3B or 2B. But his bat and high contract rate would make him a quality hitter, with some question about his power. Well, his 16 HR and 64 RBI weren't bad for a near rookie. And I watched a TON of Twins games in 2025 until the last month. He's got the tools to be a solid player at 3B and 2B, and he CAN cover SS. (I don't give a damn about metrics. I know the potential in what I saw). But his BAT, and his APPROACH is what disappointed me. I think, maybe, things have always come to him so easily that he just thought "contact" meant he could HIT ML stuff successfully. He SAYS he recognizes he chased too much and needs to refine his approach. He seems to be smart enough to learn and adapt. He's NOT the future SS of the Twins. But he's got the ability to get better, and just maintain the spot until Culpepper is ready. Lee could end up as the 3B, with Lewis taking over 1B for years to come, OR, take over 2B with Keaschall moving to 1B as a multi talented player there, OR, he could become a great super utility player who can play all 4 INF spots and be in the lineup almost daily. For a top draftee, and top prospect, that still isn't a poor outcome. Especially when you ALSO consider what Martin was SUPPOSED to be when drafted, in a similar position. NOW, Martin is suddenly a really good looking defensive LF with a batting profile that is starting to resemble his draft status. The results are still TBD. I KNOW it sounds like a crutch, but injuries to Buxton and Lewis have really crippled the Twins at times. Perhaps not recognizing Wallner's ability to adapt and be streaky has been a mistake. (I think so). CRAP HAPPENS, and I hate to say that. But it's true. A lot of players never even reach MLB for one reason or another. Goodness knows the Twins have seen enough of injuries to top prospects to feel they are cursed somehow. But how better would the lineup be the last 3 years with a healthy Buxton and Lewis? I DON'T like the current roster construction, and I've been strong on that in regard to Falvey and Tom, and offering up different options that would be way smarter and NOT expensive. But Buxton, Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, Keaschall, and even Lee is a really good starting point if we can FINALLY have them all healthy and progressing and productive at once.- 24 replies
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- byron buxton
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The Twins' Pursuit of "Value" is Hurting Their Roster
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To a degree, I appreciate and can agree waiting out the offseason for a quality, discounted add or two. In the past, that strategy has worked out fairly well. Cruz is the best example, but there have been other solid late adds that have paid dividends. But you know what works better? Target a handful of quality adds you like and need, and THEN sit back and look for some bargains to fill in certain spots on your roster. I make no apologies for some of the moves Falvey has made the last 2-3 years. But when ownership cuts your legs out from under you in regard to payroll, it does make it hard to "go for" the targeted adds I mention. For their of me, I just can't understand keeping the core intact, but then cutting the payroll...apparently...to be less than the $120M-ish that they finished 2025 with. Larnach doesn't fit any longer, but until/unless he's moved, his $4.5M could have been spent better elsewhere. And while I actually like Bell, I can see where his $7M could have been spent better. And I've stated this is a previous OP, but imagine $10M for Nathaniel Lowe to stabilize 1B. Maybe even on a 2yr deal. Is he coming off a down season? Yes. Does he have Bell's power? No. But he's been a solid, productive player with very good splits for his career. And you might then grab a solid utility player with a decent bat, also with good career splits, in the form of Ramon Urias for around $4M based on projections. That's only about $2-3M more for players that actually FIT the team needs better, and provide a more balanced roster. Wallner is now available to DH more, and Martin and Roden get the starting corner OF spots to open the season, providing better defense. And guess what? You have 3 top 20 system OF sitting at AAA waiting for opportunity. With those types of moves, they have a decent, solid, primary 1B instead of trying to cobble a platoon there. And you also have a 1B/2B/3B utility player that is at least useful. And again, Wallner can be your primary DH and still play a little corner OF here and there. Next, you TARGET a couple RP that can help stabilize and lead your bullpen. The best options are now gone, but maybe $7-8M for a RH and $4-5M for Rogers from the LH side. Or even Colombe for $3M-ish again. The math isn't hard. That's about $27M added to $85M for a TOTAL of approximately $112M! THEN you sit back and wait out the offseason and end up with a 3rd RP for around $2M that can help fill in some middle IP. Maybe there's a decent, RH hitting OF who can play against LHP for another couple $M or so. And the total payroll ONLY climbs to somewhere between $115-120M TOPS! And that's about where they FINISHED 2025 after the sell off. The roster is better balanced, and the bullpen has 2 solid arms, and a 3rd potential "steal" for depth. At least you've constructed a roster that has a chance to legitimately compete for a better than. 500 record. And ownership can't allow for a $115-120M payroll after keeping the core intact with the publicly declared idea of competing? That's still a bottom third payroll! But a better team. Again, I've lost a lot of faith in Falvey. But a ton of blame still has to go to the Pohlads. Tom, you say you are a "go big or go home" kind of guy. Well, none of us are expecting some MAJOR payroll increase overnight for 2026! But you can't even have a 2026 opening day payroll a little less than how you finished 2025? Shame on you Tom. Shame on the Pohlads. -
While I'm not crazy about him being a 40 man add, and I doubt he suddenly turns in to a decent ML hitter at age 28, St Paul needs some additional help/depth as well. He's actually been a pretty productive player as a MILB player. At some point, someone will be injured and someone will need to be a fill in. I think he's probably a better option than Arcia. I still think Tanner Schobel will help the team at some point in 2026 in a utility role, but you do temporary help from time to time. So while I would have liked a better option to have been signed, as a bottom of the 40 man addition, I'm "meh" on his addition. I just hope he's not pressed in to any sort of extended duty.
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Minnesota Twins Have Shown Interest in Seranthony Dominguez
DocBauer replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I honestly don't care who the Twins sign, even though the 3rd tier market is where they are now looking at. TD offered up Dominguez, Leclerc, and Phillips as possible veteran additions who might help the club. None of them are proven closers. But are proven veterans with a solid history of solid production who might help build a bridge to the future while deepening the early 2026 bullpen. And that's what this bullpen needs. They need a Dominguez, Leclerc, or Phillips from the RH side and a Rogers, Caffin, or Coulombe from the LH side for $10-12M to STABILIZE the pen and also give the younger arms an opportunity to learn the necessary approach to actually BEING reliever, as well as taking off some initial pressure, as well as helping to close out a few games. IIRC, even Duran started being a closer as a 7th and 8th inning guy initially, though it didn't take him long to adapt. Jax wasn't the Jax we remember overnight. Nor was Varland. Based on his 2024, a mediocre early 2025, and a strong finish to 2025, I've actually got a lot of faith in Sands developing in to a strong set up man. Im not as convinced about Funderburk, but I can see him being at least a 2nd solid LH option. I can see a reality where Rya, Klein, and Lewis could all really excel in a pen role EVENTUALLY, all for different reasons. But I still see a couple months of AAA for all 3 before getting their shot. Same for Prielipp. But the one guy that the Twins don't seem to talk a lot about is Festa. Reports are he's 100% healthy and ready to go! I think I speak for most of Twins fans that we hoped he'd turn out to not only be a good story, but also a good SP. But that's just not his role going forward. I think a blind man can see that. He has the stuff, based on previous production, to dominate a first time through a lineup. His velocity plays, especially if he can harness his 2 seam sinker to play off his FB. And he has a great slider and solid change. I actually think he's the next closer "in waiting" as it would be nice to have a veteran "handling" things early. There's actually some interesting young arms who might actually be very good to debut in 2026. But its all the better with a couple of solid veteran FA signings that can help bridge that gap.

