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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    The Twins organization has the same knowledge as the people at Driveline. There is no special sauce there.
  2. DJL44
    I think this is the best way to evaluate the trade. Did they pick the right prospect return from all the available trade packages? We can't really know that unless we know the alternatives.
  3. DJL44
    This year is mostly irrelevant to evaluating the trade. In 2022 Berrios was awful for the Blue Jays. Simply dumping Berrios '2022 $10.7M salary and 72 ERA+ production was a net win for the Twins. I don't know if the Twins would have tendered a contract to Berrios in 2023 after how poorly he pitched in 2022. The winner of the Berrios trade was Jose Berrios. He found a team willing to pay him the big bucks on a contract extension. Since the trade he's produced 1.9 WAR for $26M. That has net negative value so anything they get from the prospects is a bonus.
  4. DJL44
    48% of the ticket revenue is shared to the central pool. The Twins are a below average revenue team so they receive more than they put in. Each additional dollar that comes in gets offset by the Twins getting less money from the central pool. Let's make the math easy - Twins get $100M, they share $48M and keep $52M. They're slightly below average revenue so let's say they get $52M back from the pool. That gives them $104M in revenue. Now let's say they have a winning season and make $110M, they share $53M, keep $57M but still only get $52M back from the central pool because their extra $5M in pooled revenue is offset by someone else's drop of $5M (someone wins and someone else loses every year). That gives them $109M in revenue. Each additional dollar only nets them 50 cents. Here's the real drag - now the Twins are a net contributor to the pool so they don't get the perks that come with being a revenue sharing recipient - draft pick compensation for Sonny Gray is not as good, they lose a higher draft pick if they sign a free agent who rejected a QO and they can't be in the draft lottery in 2024 because they moved up in the draft in 2023. They could also move from Competitive balance round A to round B.
  5. DJL44
    At least the front office made sure they can't use "depth" as the excuse this season.
  6. DJL44
    If you can't enjoy watching Royce Lewis I don't know what to tell you.
  7. DJL44
    Vazquez has been as advertised as a defensive player. He's part of the reason the pitching staff is performing so well.
  8. DJL44
    Which should give you a clue of how well Wallner will hit at the major league level. Wallner's downside is Joey Gallo with awful defense.
  9. DJL44
    Taylor is 39th in WAR among CF. He's a below average player and a marginal starting CF. If Taylor was Plan A for CF they messed up.
  10. DJL44
    I think Larnach is a better option than Kepler and I would have him playing every day in the big leagues right now. Miranda needs to be at AAA, he hasn't earned a spot and would probably make things worse at the moment. He was one of the biggest problems they had in April and May. Wallner and Julien give back as much on defense as they provide on offense. Instead of losing 3-2 they help you lose 4-3.
  11. DJL44
    I think it is in their short and long term interest to play Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff as much as possible.
  12. DJL44
    Hire Gary is your solution?
  13. DJL44
    It works a LOT better in St. Paul. The pitching there is notably worse than in MLB; the pitchers make a lot more mistakes that get hammered.
  14. DJL44
    I don't know how you "change your approach" to the fact that pitch velocity is up to it's highest peak ever. There is a never-ending supply of relievers throwing in the high 90s with a slider that spins like crazy.
  15. DJL44
    The Twins are not a good offensive team but they are far from the worst. There are 9 teams with fewer runs per game than the Twins (including all of the other teams in their division). The only thing keeping them from dropping even lower in runs per game is the fact that they can put the ball over the fence. It would be a lot worse if they were striking out this much but only hitting singles.
  16. DJL44
    Sorry to disappoint you but MLB batting average has gone up just slightly from .243 in 2022 to .248 in 2023. That's a far cry from when the league hit .268 way back in 2007 (which includes pitchers hitting). Strikeouts are up 2022->23 from 8.4 per team per game to 8.6. The .706 league OPS from 2022 has increased to .729. Overall offense has barely budged back to 2021 levels. Without the offseason changes to increase offense I'm pretty sure we would be >9Ks per team per game with league batting average below .240.
  17. DJL44
    Everyone wants to bring up Wallner but Larnach hits just as well and plays a lot better defense.
  18. DJL44
    Pitching with runners on means the pitcher no longer uses the windup but pitches out of the stretch. That can definitely have an impact on effectiveness (otherwise they wouldn't ever pitch out of the windup). Of course that isn't a mental block issue at all, but a physical ability issue.
  19. DJL44
    Regi Grace will be Rule 5 draft eligible in December. He's exactly the kind of player you trade for deadline help because someone will pick him in the draft if not protected.
  20. DJL44
    The problem with this philosophy is every team is unlikely to win the World Series in any given year. Even the odds-on favorite Braves and Rays have less than a 20% chance to win it all. Therefore, the Twins should always tank to get better draft positioning and never try to win. Playoff games are 1) fun 2) profitable. They should definitely be trying to make the playoffs this season.
  21. DJL44
    He's also eating a ton of innings, on pace for over 190 innings pitched this season. By FIP he's been as good as Joe Ryan.
  22. DJL44
    I think the answer is no and it isn't surprising. The roster is 50% pitchers. They've been drafting roughly 50% pitchers but that isn't enough because pitchers get hurt and flame out at a much higher rate than position players. They've acquired almost no pitching through international free agency which puts them well behind league average. That leaves free agency and trading veteran players as the only way to acquire the young pitching talent they need. They have never been comfortable paying for free agent pitchers (I don't blame them) and they've been in contention often enough lately to hold onto their veteran players.
  23. DJL44
    It's funny that the Twins scored their one run because the Braves threw a fastball in the strikezone to Gallo instead of reading the scouting report that says "only changeups in the zone".
  24. DJL44
    I think that is one thing they're really not good at. It's one thing to come up with a plan but they have to recognize when the plan isn't working and adjust. They're really slow making adjustments. Alex Colome as the closer is just one example.
  25. DJL44
    Royce has also commented publicly that he's getting his pitch far more often than he expected. He probably shouldn't have said that out loud but I'm fine with him swinging while he's getting his pitch. Sooner or later the opposition will adjust and he'll have to work harder and take more walks.
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