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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I think this is a fair comp for Kepler's trade value. I also don't see a reason to trade Kepler unless it improves the 2024 team. That trade for Verdugo doesn't improve the Red Sox in 2024.
  2. DJL44
    Plus Emmanuel Rodriguez on the 40 man roster and playing CF in AA next season. Right now Keirsey is the 4th outfielder for the St. Paul Saints. The Rule 5 draft was designed precisely to give players like Kiersey a shot in a different organization.
  3. DJL44
    Will DaShawn Kiersey ever make his MLB debut or will he head overseas as a minor league free agent? I don't see any upside taking him. Teams can get someone like Kiersey for the league minimum as a free agent so it doesn't save any money. In Rule 5 a team is looking to grab someone who can be a backup now but could be more than just a backup later. Kiersey has very little projectable future value.
  4. DJL44
    Yes, if moving the money around helps you avoid taxes. It's a lot cheaper to pay interest than it is to pay capital gains taxes.
  5. DJL44
    The Brewers have done a much better job connecting with fans which gets 500,000 more people to Brewers games than the Twins despite the Twins being able to draw from a metro population roughly twice as large. In 2023 the Brewers drew 2.5M fans out of a population of 1.5M. The Twins drew 2M fans from a population of 3M. I think a lot of that is the Brewers are trying harder to win than the Twins.
  6. DJL44
    You're not understanding. If the Twins need a loan they can loan the money to themselves and charge interest to themselves which can be used to avoid taxes on their income from running the Twins. It's one way to tap into equity without selling the team.
  7. DJL44
    His competitive nature is fine. The knee injury meant he couldn't load on his back leg. One of my favorite hitting coaches likes to say "a good load fixes a lot of flaws".
  8. DJL44
    See Bryce Harper
  9. DJL44
    Royce Lewis
  10. DJL44
    Ohtani can play the field in RF or 1B. Even if he can't pitch he's not just a DH.
  11. DJL44
    After 100 ballots we'll have a good idea of whether Mauer has a chance
  12. DJL44
    He did have that track record back in 2020. Since then he has a FIP around 5 and nearly the lowest fastball velocity in MLB. He doesn't strike anyone out and is only average at limiting walks. I'm not sure Gonzalez would beat out Louie Varland for a rotation spot.
  13. DJL44
    The good news is they don't all need to be healthy to win the division. They can win in the playoffs if they can all stay healthy for one month. They are at least one starting pitcher away from a good playoff roster even if the hitters are all healthy.
  14. DJL44
    It's actually embarrassing that the Twins have ever been outspent by the Brewers considering the Twin Cities market advantage over Milwaukee. That means the Twins are spending at the level of the 27th largest market in baseball when they're really a mid-market team.
  15. DJL44
    You know the Pohlads own a bank, right? If they borrow against the team they're going to borrow from their own bank.
  16. DJL44
    I picked Ford and Clase because they're blocked by Quero and Rodriguez for the Mariners but both fill needs for the Twins. I would do that deal for Polanco even though the trade website thinks it is an overpay for the Twins. Dobnak is an interesting trade chit for a deal with a large market team because he's dead money but he doesn't count against the luxury tax.
  17. DJL44
    That's unfortunate because from a talent perspective that would be robbery for the Twins. 3 potential starting players for a backup catcher is an amazing deal.
  18. DJL44
    You outlined why Robbie Ray has negative value, but he still does have value. Harry Ford, Jonatan Clase & Robbie Ray for Randy Dobnak and Christian Vazquez - who says no?
  19. DJL44
    Makes me wonder what Seattle would give up to get rid of Robbie Ray.
  20. DJL44
    There is also a postseason advantage if you can get your wins from an elite starting pitcher. That is something that can be leveraged in the playoffs when you drop the worst pitcher from your rotation.
  21. DJL44
    So they mismanaged Dobnak by trying to turn him into a good pitcher? They should have left him alone to be a bad pitcher instead? The end result was the same - pitching lots of innings in AAA.
  22. DJL44
    I agree that Yamamoto will set the market but Snell might sign before it is completely settled. Everyone else should sign soon thereafter. I think Cease and Glasnow both move before Burnes on the trade market. This is exactly what you want to avoid in offseason planning. They need a pitching staff that is competitive if everyone hits their median projection. Then there's the conundrum that if you want to win in the playoffs it's better to concentrate that pitching performance in one or two dominant pitchers than spreading it out among the whole staff.
  23. DJL44
    He hasn't done that since his debut season in 2019. It's possible but an ERA of 4 is more likely.
  24. DJL44
    They're bidding on Yamamoto, not on Ohtani.
  25. DJL44
    Actually those teams will spend closer to $250M and the difference will be that the Twins want a payroll at about half of the top 10 spenders. That will force the Twins to buy talent with prospects and make the rebuilding seasons between contending windows worse or settle for never really building a team that can be expected to win in the playoffs. Consistent mediocrity or boom/bust - that's the choice. They can't be consistently excellent with a payroll in the bottom third.
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