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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    They don't have to make the team better in the future, just 2026. None of the 5 players I want to cut make the team better in the future. Miguel Andujar and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (for example) make the team better in 2026. Dump Outman and Julien and add those two. Then watch the waiver wire for players like Kody Clemens to replace Gasper and Kreidler.
  2. DJL44
    They have outfield prospects on the cusp, but no infielders above Double-A. "Bench guys" play a LOT of at-bats. Julien, Outman, Kreidler, Gasper and Fitzgerald had 500 plate appearances in 2025 for a combined WAR of -2.0. Replacing their playing time with two 1.0 WAR players adds 4 wins to the team. I saw this same argument last season. "The Twins shouldn't add Harrison Bader, they have DaShawn Keirsey on the roster already." It was a dumb argument then and looks even dumber in hindsight.
  3. DJL44
    Brendan Donovan is very available, fits in the 2026-27 window, fills a gaping hole on the roster and fits in the budget. That's the kind of move they need to make if they are serious about contending in 2026 and 2027. If the team fails to "thread the needle" he's tradeable again at the deadline. Other players who "fit the window" Taylor Walls, Hyesong Kim, Lars Nootbaar
  4. DJL44
    There are some interesting things about the Fangraphs 80-82 roster projection. 1) It depends on the Twins starting Kaelen Culpepper at SS. Culpepper projects as the 3rd most valuable player on the roster - ahead of Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers and Royce Lewis. Does anyone see this front office handing Culpepper the job out of spring training? Does anyone think ZIPS might be a bit too optimistic about Culpepper's 2026? 2) It thinks Outman (1.3 WAR), Julien (1.2), Gasper (1.0), Clemens (1.0), Jackson (0.9), Pereda (0.7), Fitzgerald (0.6), Bell (0.5) and Kreidler (0.4) will all be above replacement value contributors. It estimated Keirsey Jr as a 1.0 WAR player. This is due to ZIPS regressing numbers to the mean and only estimating playing time assuming a player will actually contribute. That group combines for 7.5 WAR and I'd put the actual number much closer to zero. Making that contribution zero drops the overall projection from 80 wins to 73. There is some upside. If the Twins can replace Outman, Julien, Gasper, Fitzgerald and Kreidler with actual 1.0 WAR contributors, they can get back to 78 wins with this roster. Players like that are still floating around in free agency waiting for an opportunity.
  5. DJL44
    Trust the process....
  6. DJL44
    They could move him to the bullpen and use that to increase his velocity.
  7. DJL44
    This roster would look better if Gasper, Outman, Fitzgerald, Kreidler and Julien were replaced with better players. To truly contend they will also need better players than Jackson, Clemens, Lee, Larnach and Bell, but let's start by replacing the five AAA players with actual MLB talent.
  8. DJL44
    Please, replace all 3 with better players. Fitzgerald hasn't "earned" anything. He's a 32-year-old career minor leaguer.
  9. DJL44
    If they do want to compete in 2026-27, then they need to make some moves to make the 2026-27 team stronger at the expense of the 2028 and beyond teams. They loaded the minor leagues with tradeable prospects last summer. They can spend some of those to make the team better in the near-term. Their plan seems to be rolling the same team out again and hoping the players all magically improve.
  10. DJL44
    The Twins have Austin Martin for that same role.
  11. DJL44
    The Twins defense looks even worse than their offense. It's a team full of mediocre DH types.
  12. DJL44
    This players in the article are already too old and/or too defensively challenged to have a Hall of Fame level career. Walker Jenkins is the only player in the entire minor league system who looks like he has HoF upside and that upside becomes less likely every month he stays in the minors.
  13. DJL44
    I'm fine with trading Larnach, but the Twins can't be in the business of bringing in declining veteran players like Bell to block better, cheaper, younger players like Wallner if they want to compete. That will only lead to an expensive roster full of bad, old players.
  14. DJL44
    They've also acquired a horrible player to back up their pretend SS.
  15. DJL44
    It comes up because they won't pay for a good free agent SS and they won't trade for an established SS. It's basically the only option that fits their budget and their desire to "contend" in 2026. This team got the least production out of SS in all of baseball in 2025. They've subtracted Carlos Correa and added Ryan Kreidler. They could be once-in-a-decade bad at SS in 2026.
  16. DJL44
    IKF replaces Lee to add 1 WAR. Lee takes the bench role instead of Kreidler which adds 1 WAR. It's not a good argument that they shouldn't replace bad players with okay players because they'll deploy the okay players instead of the talented young players. That's an argument that they need to replace the people in charge with a competent front office. Culpepper hasn't even seen AAA. I don't think he figures into their 2026 plans at all. They'll either give Kreidler 400 plate appearances or give I K-F 400 PAs. Which would you prefer?
  17. DJL44
    SS was also a weak spot for the Tigers. I have seen both the Twins and the Tigers mentioned as possible destinations for Isaiah Kiner-Falefa
  18. DJL44
    Lee is below average, at best, at SS. His SS defense was really not better post-Correa trade. I have seen good hands in the past but he booted a lot of balls in August and September. It's actually remarkable that a player with tools as bad as Lee's (slow, poor range, weak arm) can fake it at SS in the majors. I don't expect him to be able to improve without increasing his foot speed and his throwing velocity.
  19. DJL44
    Mixed reviews implies there are some positive reviews. The reviews of Josh Bell's defense range from "solidly below-average" to "poor". I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins end up 30th out of 30 in the 2026 first base defense rankings.
  20. DJL44
    They are buying the Twins, so it tracks.
  21. DJL44
    Nice job putting Jack Morris #2 to drive engagement
  22. DJL44
    Connor Prielipp is also highlighted for his stuff in this article
  23. DJL44
    Twins pitchers had two mentions in this article about the most extreme statcast plays of 2025 There are videos at the link. It makes me hopeful that having Ober follow Ryan in the rotation will have batters baffled.
  24. DJL44
    Ouch. The Twins have multiple "worst positions" to worry about and so far they haven't addressed any of them. There is some hope that Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner can each hit better than last season, If Wallner struggles, there are several options in AAA. I am most worried about SS where Ryan Kreidler (career WAR -0.7) is apparently their improvement plan. I would love to see the Twins sign Isaiah Kiner-Falefa to fill that hole. He's not perfect, but he's a 3 WAR upgrade on Ryan Kreidler. They will not make the postseason if they get "less from the shortstop position than any other team in baseball".
  25. DJL44
    Willi Castro should be an honorable mention
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