Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DJL44

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,593

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    61

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Having a bad team tanks attendance starting around the trade deadline. 100 wins is definitely better than 87 wins for attendance but the returns are diminishing. I understand why they want to avoid downside more than they want to try for upside. Part of that is just human nature (loss aversion).
  2. DJL44
    And then he pinch-hit with a guy who thought his best option was to bunt with 2 out and the bases loaded. That's a move with at best a 20% chance of success. Julien has a .245 career OBP vs LHP which gives better odds than a bases loaded 2 out bunt.
  3. DJL44
    I'm not sure if it does compared to an 87 win team. Their attendance goes down as much as 500,000 fans when they're bad. If they're in a pennant race they get 10,000 more fans for each September game. If they're not then people watch Vikings training camp.
  4. DJL44
    It also lets opposing managers know they can take Julien out of the rest of the game if they have a lefty reliever face him in the 4th inning. Rocco got the better platoon matchup once but gave it away the next two times through the lineup. Some teams only have one lefty reliever. If that happens, keep Julien in the game knowing he will only face the lefty reliever once.
  5. DJL44
    It's certainly not a move I'd burn a pinch hitter to make in the 4th inning. What's the reduced run expectancy of not having Julien in the lineup for the rest of the game? It has to be higher than the run expectancy of a bases loaded bunt in that situation. It would be a more defensible move if they had Julien bunt there. He's not a great hitter against lefties, he's in the lefthanded batter's box (two steps closer to 1B for the throw) and they don't lose him for the rest of the game. I am glad Rocco wasn't happy with that decision.
  6. DJL44
    Two outs and bases loaded. There is an easy force out at home if he bunts it back to the pitcher. The success rate on that is quite low. The bunt has to be perfect or the inning is over. Plus, the manager didn't call a squeeze so the runner at 3B is not prepared.
  7. DJL44
    One thing about hitting - the coaches will see the progress the players are making in practice. Julien should have had a lot of reps against lefties on the back fields in Fort Myers. If he wasn't hitting lefties there, I can understand why Rocco won't let him bat in the big leagues.
  8. DJL44
    1/2 + 1/3 = 5/6. That leaves 1/6 of the teams. 1/6*30 = 5. My math is fine. Your reading comprehension is not.
  9. DJL44
    They want to make sure Target Field is full in September. 85 wins does that. 100 losses means 400,000 fewer tickets sold. I also think you're underselling the upside potential in their approach. They still have all the young prospects, they're just starting the season in AAA like last season with Wallner, Julien, etc. If the young players perform, they'll get promoted.
  10. DJL44
    I do not get putting in a pinch hitter to have them bunt with the bases loaded and two outs. Can't defend that move. If you want to do something dumb like that you can do it with Julien.
  11. DJL44
    Miranda and Farmer are not equivalent defensively which is why I went with Goodrum. I agree that the Twins are trying to make 85 wins a sure thing and not trying to build a team that wins 100. With the expanded playoffs and a weak division there is little benefit to winning 100 games.
  12. DJL44
    Hoskins is getting $16M this season so it's really Hoskins, Martin, Goodrum and Balazovic instead of Margot, Santana, Farmer and Jay Jackson. The problem with that is if Hoskins gets hurt your season is over.
  13. DJL44
    Half the league has a starter better than or equal to either of those two. One third of the league isn't trying to win this year. That leaves about 5 teams to try to match up with. A couple of those teams (Detroit and Cleveland) are in the same division. If the Twins trade Kepler they would immediately be in the "trying to win without an outfielder better than Kepler" category.
  14. DJL44
    A lot. They're both likely so far below average that they are below replacement value. That's actually bad enough to cancel out the contributions from one of your star players.
  15. DJL44
    That's probably being generous. Based on last season Miranda is a triple-A player and not a particularly good one. That's why there's an article above about how much he needs to improve his hitting and fielding to become a real possibility again.
  16. DJL44
    With an OPS+ of 6 and bad defense. If they hadn't traded Polanco many people here would be complaining about the missed opportunity. Based on the small sample size of the first week Falvey looks like a genius.
  17. DJL44
    Correct, he's a stopgap because they didn't have a decent option at 1B on the roster. Miranda and Kirilloff are a DH platoon. FWIW - Brandon Belt is unemployed right now and he was a decent starter for a playoff team last year. I don't understand how he is looking for work while Santana gets $5M guaranteed. It makes no sense to me that the Twins decided to wait out the free agent market but still were unable to get the real bargains at the end.
  18. DJL44
    You will get to see Larnach and Miranda play this year. If they don't add Santana and Margot then you're looking at AAA backups like Helman and Isola getting at-bats this year or keeping vets like Niko Goodrum around. I understand why they want to avoid that scenario. It isn't hard to argue that Farmer is worth $6M more than Niko Goodrum. I don't think they always choose the best available bench players (I think they picked Santana based on how Falvey remembers him 5 years ago and it would be really nice to have JD Davis instead) but I understand why they want competent veterans for the bench.
  19. DJL44
    They got Margot in a trade, not as a free agent signing. I'm not sure what people expect for $4M. For that price you will get below average players. Average players get over $10M a season.
  20. DJL44
    Lewis and Larnach are still Twins
  21. DJL44
    Did they finally release Sabato?
  22. DJL44
    No, they said it was because they didn't have a TV deal and then they got a TV deal and still didn't spend any of the money from the TV deal. This could have something to do with their management team consistently negotiating the worst local TV deal in MLB and their expectations that they will negotiate another bad TV deal next summer. They traded Polanco because they had a surplus of second basemen and he could bring back value in a trade. He didn't bring back as much as they hoped because DeSclafani never even threw a pitch for the Twins but they still got (a lot) more value than non-tendering him. I would have rather they reloaded like the Arizona Diamondbacks and tried for a championship. Instead, we got a change in management philosophy that wants them to generate more profit. I would not be surprised to see Kepler and Vazquez dealt at the deadline as they continue to shrink the payroll.
  23. DJL44
    The Twins have 6 picks in the top 100 of this summer's draft. Should they opt out and spend the money on the 2024 team instead? Your answer should be a resounding NO. It's always a good time to stock the minor leagues with talent. It is the most cost effective way to acquire talent.
  24. DJL44
    From who? The Blue Jays were the only other team rumored to have interest. Seattle was the only serious bidder. We can see why - they're so desperate for infielders they're playing Polanco at 3B.
  25. DJL44
    If there wasn't some risk they wouldn't be able to get him for just $5.25M. Consistently productive bullpen arms cost $8-10M a season (or higher). It's impossible for the Twins to create a competitive roster for $130M without taking on a bunch of risk.
×
×
  • Create New...