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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    You have to believe Seattle wants to hold onto their young pitching. I noticed they have a lot of prospects in their top 20 that are not projected to reach the majors until 26-27. Will they try to trade these prospects and hang on to their pitching? Those assets look pretty good to a rebuilding team. Trading Ray or Castillo also has to be more appealing to them as well. Would a team like Baltimore just entering what should be a wide window be interested in Ray? Castillo has been great but the failure rate for guys this age is also quite high. See Ray, Rodon, Mahle, etc. Yet, Castillo is really tempting if Polanco and Kepler were the primary assets back from the Twins.
  2. Major League Ready
    IDK Volpe would be that attractive to the marlins. They are looking for offense. Volpe had a wRC+ of 84. Julien's was 136. Julien was the grossly superior offense player last year. Perhaps the people making these decisions believe he will rebound offensively. Volpe has 1.9 WAR playing 159 games. Julien 2.8 in 109 games. Of course, the Marlins are looking for a SS which makes Volpe a better fit in terms of position but he probably would not improve their offense.
  3. Major League Ready
    Has someone from the FO actually made this statement or is it the stated goal of TD posters? I am not saying it should not be the goal but has the FO actually taken a stance? I am curious because that would narrow down the possibilities.
  4. Major League Ready
    1) They had a .537 win percentage last year. They had .600 and .623 in 2020 and 2019. Winning one playoff series does not make last year's 87 win team something special. 2) The players that the Royals and Tigers picked up would not move the needle on this team so what's the point. You also fail to mention that even with these additions the Tiger's and Royal's payrolls are $20M less than the Twins. 3) The trade market is just now developing. Therefore, the most compelling options simply are not available yet. Did you want them to make a bad trade in order to get it done early? What's the benefit of making a trade in December vs February? 4) Why would you be convinced of anything in December? If we were to form any opinion at all wouldn't it make sense to examine how this front office has navigated previous off-seasons? They traded for Lopez on Jan 20th and made several moves after that transaction last year so why would you conclude nothing is going to happen?
  5. Major League Ready
    This is really interesting. My hesitation would be that the Jays don't do this deal unless they think Manoah is unlikely to rebound. Do our guys know better than their guys? They are much closer to the situation. The optimist in me loves the idea / upside of this proposed trade. The realist says this probably does not end well. I guess my inclination is the same as Nicks in that a deal with Seattle or Miami is preferable.
  6. Major League Ready
    Exceptionally good point! There is a very important lesson to be learned in these facts.
  7. Major League Ready
    Your skepticism is warranted given this is the Pirates we are talking about. However, the Pirates payroll projection is only $50M. With Kepler being a one-year deal and Polanco having a team option in 2025, this is not a big spend, even for the Pirates.
  8. Major League Ready
    Fangraphs shows a 50 FV and He has a 70 rating on his curveball. Sands has a 35+ FV and he is a RP vs a starter so I don't see Sands as a comp.
  9. Major League Ready
    Why wouldn't the Twins be looking ahead? This is the type of trade that can impact a team for several years. Let's hope the Twins FO is short-term focused that they would overlook a player that could be a big contributor for several years because their only focused on players with an immediate impact.
  10. Major League Ready
    There were a few of us that took the position that the 22 team was not worthy of the level of investment they made so it's not hind sight to take this position now. It was an unpopular position. Most took an adamant stance that "we were in 1st place". Some of us said so what ... we are in 1st because of a very weak division not because we had a team that could contend. If you look at the teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue that have been successful, they have done so by taking advantage of the premium paid for immediate gain. Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland have managed assets in this manner for two decades. More recently, Cincinatti and Baltimore have played the long game and those teams are in a great position today. One of the writers here (I don't remember who) did a piece on SGL. There were people that believed in him and we don't even know that it would have been necessary to put him on the 40 man at the time. Steer and CES were definitely players that would have been put on the 40 man at the end of 2022.
  11. Major League Ready
    Good call! If you look back at any 90+ win team from markets in the bottom two-thirds of revenue, this type of trade is far more prevalent than trading for well-established players and it's not remotely close. Strategies that favor the immediate are far more preferrable to most fans but history will reveal (if one bothers to look) the long-term strategies applied by the Ray's, Guardians, and Athletics are more effective in building winning teams. Some of those teams produced as much WAR from players acquired as prospects as players they drafted. The 22 trade deadline is a good example. We would be in a far superior position if we had Steer, CES, and Gibson-Long. Cincinatti is moving Steer to LF. He would provide depth and L/R balance. Wallner would move to right and Larnach is depth. CES could provide a very big tick or he would be very attractive as part of the offering for a top of the rotation arm. IDK how good SGL will be but his debut went well and we could use the SP depth. We invested these assets and more in a short-term strategy for a team that never had a chance. This is obviously not a popular view but it's hard to argue given the results in 22 and the present state of the prospects involved.
  12. Major League Ready
    1. Julien is already the primary 2B. 2. You included Castro and Kirilloff in OFers but not IFers. We have 2 proven OFers (Buxton and Kepler) and it's hard to rely on Buxton's health. I guess we can call Kirilloff proven but we need him more at 1B than we do the OF. Wallner's sample size is very small but promising. Castro is not an OFer. He is a utility guy and the bat is not adequate for a corner OFer. 3. Yes Garlic and Gordon are OFers but they are not OFers on a contending team, not even close and Larnach is the optime of unproven. Not to mention Buxton's ability to stay on the field also has to be considered. 4. We are under budget but have other needs and the dollars from Polanco can be redistributed to a greater need.
  13. Major League Ready
    Martin stepping up might have the greatest potential to impact this team. We need some RH outfield depth. We also need a guy that gets on base and Martin does that well and then runs the bases well once he gets there. Miranda has showed the potential to be an impact bat so him stepping up would not be surprising. Hopefully, he is working hard on his defense this off-season. I would like to see him come back and dominate giving the twins even more depth to use as trade capital. SWR and Festa might be the most important guys to have step up. We need some starting pitching depth. These two have the potential to be more than back-end innings eaters and their ascension is really important to this team. Canterino has the ceiling to be the highest impact player of any of those discussed. He is the guy I will be tuning into Saints games to see. Would love to see him playing a role on the ML team by July and dominating in September. The sleeper is Yunior Severino. To me he most personifies the "step-up" candidate because he is not on the radar as much as the other guys but he could be the guy whose stock rises the most. There is a lot of ceiling if he can improve his approach and curb the K rate a bit.
  14. Major League Ready
    As I listen to the guys on MLB radio talk about the Reds, they think CES is an elite bat and Steer has been quite good. This was not worth a shot IMO and I said so at the time. Mahle is not a difference maker and the 22 Twins were not a team to invest in as heavily as they did at the deadline. Gibson-Long also looked good in his debut. Obviously, a different trade but the decision to go for it with a team that was not even close to a contender might be the worst decision this front office ever made. Yes, fans are going to support pushing in chips but it's impossible to deny we would be in much better shape if we had CES, Steer, and SGL right now. SGL would be great depth. CES is the starting 1B and Steer would be a utility player and starter against LHP in the OF. Granted, CES started out slow but he got better and better. His OPS was 966 for his last 100ABs. I also think Steer and Castro would make an ideal pair of utility players or CES and Steer would be great trade capital for pitching.
  15. Major League Ready
    I think people are ignoring that they are trying to redistribute payroll. Trading Polanco is the only option that accomplishes that goal. They might also include Lee for the right pitcher but Polanco is by far the most likely to be traded.
  16. Major League Ready
    After the recent additions, the Royals are at $95M in Payroll and the Tigers are at $102M. They were due to spend.
  17. Major League Ready
    Trade Rumors projects Kiermaier at 2/26. Spotrac has Grisham at $3.175M so more like an extra $10M for Kiermaier. I don't see them spending this much on a CF option.
  18. Major League Ready
    Neither of them can hit RHP. The difference is that Bader has a career .823 OPS against LHP and Grisham .748. Bader could be a a good platoon player with our LH heavy OF. He can also be a late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.
  19. Major League Ready
    We forget Miranda was a beast for a period of time. I would love to see him get back to that form and make your prediction come true.
  20. Major League Ready
    You make a good point if they can 90% of the production from a younger player. Larnach would replace him and I just don't know if that Larnach will produce at what we would call 90%. Plus, what if Larnach or Wallner get hurt? Other teams have proven getting something for players on their way out sustains winning but we are pretty thin in the OF.
  21. Major League Ready
    Answers in bold above.
  22. Major League Ready
    You also can't assume a 50/50 model nets the same in every sport. Baseball has more significant operating costs. The 50/50 split here also does not include benefits and signing bonuses. NBA players don't get a draft bonus like MLB. Those bonuses are at least 5% of the Twins revenue. Taxes and player benefits are over 10%. That's a total of 65% of the revenue before the other hundreds of employees are paid, facilities costs, equipment, office space, travel, etc are paid for. IDK how accurate this is by a read an article once that suggested operating costs were around 35%.
  23. Major League Ready
    Do you understand that during the last CBA the players took an adamant stand about increasing the luxury tax threshold above what the owners offered and by doing so increased the disparity.
  24. Major League Ready
    Let’s start with the premise that the Owners and the league have done in inadequate job of growing the game. I am sure you have looked at the year over year revenue growth and the salary increases to players. If you’re a player, you should be thrilled with the growth of the game and what that has meant to player compensation. MLB player compensation has outplaced inflation by 100X over the past 50 years so I think the industry has done quite well. Now, the distribution of that money has very much favored elite players but the players have driven that model or at the very least not focused the increases to the masses. The league was also quite innovative with rule changes last year that improved the product significantly. Point being that the premise that they have not adequately grown the game is not consistent with history. As much as I would like to see much less variance in revenue like the NFL, you just can’t realign all the revenue streams. The other leagues were built on a different business model. Baseball was around for 75 years before the NBA and NFL. At this point there would be enormous economic sanctions on the top teams if an equity model was instituted. Imagine you own the Dodgers, Yankees, red Sox, etc and the league proposes revenues be shared equally. The drop in evaluation would be somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple billion dollars. It also would not be the best thing for the league. Revenues are maximized by having the highest profile players in the biggest markets. Neither the owners or the players want this model. Small market fans would like it but that’s not of great influence here. I would also be surprised if the ownership group does not have some sort of legally binding agreement that mandates the terms of any changes to revenue sharing which protects the interests of the top revenue generating teams.
  25. Major League Ready
    Sounds good in theory. Now convince the owners of the top teams to lose a billion or two billion in valuation by going to this model. We are just too far down the given path in MLB to make this sort of remarkable change. Frankly, someone else replied that revenue is maximized by the top markets having star players. He/she was right. Neither the owners or players want to make a change that will likely hurt revenue generation. Disparity is a problem for equitable competition. It's not an economic/business problem. That's why we have what we have. The owners and players are making a fortune. Giving small market fans equity is not a priority.
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