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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    How many teams have a backup SS that is better than Polanco?
  2. Major League Ready
    Of course, why should we worry. It's not like people die from Covid-19. This might be the most absurd statement I have ever seen on TD.
  3. Major League Ready
    One guy / one data point provides absolutely no value. The approach Drivlikejuhu used which includes the entire population is the correct approach. The premise that a majority of players will perform better in his first 3 weeks in majors vs his final year of arbitration is ridiculous. If not, why would we every sign a free agent. More importantly, the value proposition here is not based on relative ability in year 1 vs year 6 or 7. It's the first 3 weeks vs a year of control in a players prime. This is the kind of arguments teenagers make when they want something that is irrational.
  4. Major League Ready
    What I find silly is to base his readiness on that they started him in a playoff game. The only thing that indicates is that they did not have a better option on that given day. It certainly does not prove he is the best option on opening day. What's really silly is that we have several years of Milb data but not a single person who is calling for Kirilloff to start opening day is willing to make a case based on his Milb performance. Prove your case with his numbers. Shows us other corner OFers who were promoted to the ML level with similar AA numbers and no AAA experience.
  5. Major League Ready
    I quit reading when I reached the bolded text. This is a ridiculous statement. Your suggestion is that this player is likely to be far more valuable in their rookie season as compared to their last year of arbitration. Furthermore, you are suggesting that 3 weeks of Kirilloff at the start of the season is more valuable than his age 29 season.
  6. Major League Ready
    Not correct. Berrios is back next year too. I like their odds of coming up with at least one starter among Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Sands / Winder and Ober. Enlow is also not that far off. So, if just one of them succeeds we just need one good free agent SP next year. They can also easily spend the combined salary of Pineada and Happ. Another option would be to use the savings to extend Berrios. Either way, I have to disagree with your warning for next year. We are going to be in the best position we have seen in a long time if two of those SP prospects hit in the next year or year and a half.
  7. Major League Ready
    I think you hit the nail on the head. Take a look at next year’s roster construction. We have to replace 2 starters who will be free agents. I think we will see 3-4 SP prospects get a shot this year. If just one of them excels, the payroll allocated to Pineda and Happ can be reallocated to one (higher profile) SP instead of two. In other words, we can afford one of the top free agents pitchers. We are not likely to win the war for Syndergaard but there are a few others that would look good in a Twins uniform and the rotation would be well positioned for at least 3-4 years. Lewis not only making it but reaching his potential is also an obvious big deal. Our middle infield should be well set and we have several good options for the corner Ifers. That’s also another $10M (Simmons) that can be reallocated. If we establish a SP and Lewis, our payroll will be around $100M assuming we don’t resign Cruz. That should leave us well positioned to add final pieces.
  8. Major League Ready
    What "bonehead" moves did they make it 2018?
  9. Major League Ready
    So your argument is that a couple of absolute superstars were ready at 19-20 years of age. How about if we look at their performance. You know … the evidence they were ready to play. Tell us how his performance demonstrates he is ready for MLB. Of course, you will ignore this because there is no way to conclude his performance demonstrates he is ready to perform at the highest level. The anecdote that he started a playoff 1 playoff game is a desperate reach to come up with validation when his track record won’t provide it. The Twins started Polanco in 5 games at age 20. Did that mean he was ready for the ML level? Acuna is actually a counterargument to your position. He had an 895 OPS at AAA vs 756 for Kirilloff. Yet, he was sent to AAA. He proved he was ready with an OPS of 940 over 54 games. (almost identical to Rooker) So, if you are advocating Acuna’s path who performed much better than Kirilloff at AA, Kirilloff should go to AAA for a couple months. Sota had an OPS of 1218 at age 19 before they brought him up in 2018. To compare Kirilloff and Soto is ridiculous. Not one person is making a case for him based on performance. It’s all anecdotal. What I really would like to know is how anyone has an informed opinion outside the organization when he has not played competitive BB in a year. The arguments are self-indulgent. How is it not a perfectly acceptable strategy to start him at AAA and allow him to prove he is ready for MLB?
  10. Major League Ready
    Kepler's deal is actually $31.75M. I would bet the FO has seen the OF situation a little differently than TD followers. Instead of trade depth, I think they saw the opportunity to end up with 3 corner OFers that collectively provide better offensive production. Rooker being RH provides the opportunity to rest one of them against tough LH pitching or use Rooker as the DH. This scenario also offers a couple other benefits. The one probably most present in the minds of the FO is that no only could this combination be quite a bit more productive than Rosario/Kepler but the team could also be better off by reallocating the payroll. In other words, Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker + free agent addition with savings >>> Kepler/Rosario. Of course, these players will also be under control for a longer period. We will see what happens with the CBA. The teams future is also likely gets better from whatever Kepler brings in trade.
  11. Major League Ready
    I agree. However, the plan with the highest likelihood of success is not at all clear. Remember when so many here insisted we bring up Berrios because he would be our best pitcher. I remember that chatter with Burdi too. None of us has seen him play for an entire year with the exception of one game. So, for anyone outside the organization to claim to know his readiness is hard to take serious. I have not heard one person make their case based on performance. Kirilloff has an unspectacular stint at AA and he has never played a single inning at AAA. That s not the resume of a player that has proven to be ready. If we are really concerned about every win we would engage a different plan. We have a spot open and fans want to see the highly anticipated prospect. However, Rooker clearly has better Milb credentials. We could even make a case for the best way to start the season would be to platoon Cave and Broxton while waiting a month for Kirilloff is ready.
  12. Major League Ready
    I think the term setting yourself up for disappoint came from baseball fans who are distraught if their team does win the world series. It seems foolhardy to me to get to wound up about an outcome with a 3% chance of being realized. Of course, that assumes all teams have an equal chance and that's not the case. High revenue teams win the WS on a more frequent basis than low revenue teams. I want to watch a good team for a high percentage of the 162 games. Give me good entertainment for 6 months and I am not going to slit my wrists if they don't win it all. There are so many other things with far greater significance to worry about.
  13. Major League Ready
    Arraez does not have a bat that profiles in the OF. He is also quite poor defensively. Rooker had an OPS 150 pts higher last year and he cant be much worse than Arraez in the OF. Obviouly Rooker's sample size was small but its reasonable to expect a 100 point higher OPS from Rooker. Cave would also have a higher OPS and he is a much better defender than Arraez. Broxton would definitely provide better defense. He could potentially be platooned with Cave.
  14. Major League Ready
    Chicago is only go to play 161 games?
  15. Major League Ready
    You have completely changed the topic. If you want to discuss a specific move that might make us more formidable in the playoffs .... great! Whether Kirilloff has earned a spot having never played an inning at AAA and a modest showing at AA is a different topic. Whether forfeiting a years control for 3 weeks of an unproven player is a different topic. Whether 3 weeks of Kirilloff is essential to our success in a different topic.
  16. Major League Ready
    Who here would opt to accept 3 weeks pay fresh out of college instead of an entire years pay 6 years post graduation when its fair to assume you will be more valuable? If this was considered in investment terms the return is 17X assuming you were not more valuable after 6 years experience. Your child may not understand this but people making asset management decisions better.
  17. Major League Ready
    I see it differently. Boras is the reason extending is not a solution to the service time issue. The reasons it does not make sense to start the season with Kirilloff in LF are as stated earlier. I ask again, why is so important to have an unproven rookie in LF for 3 weeks? You said it yourself ... you are not worried about the future. That's really where we differ greatly. You are no different than many fans. Many only care about the present. That's fine as a fan. It's absolute incompetence as a GM. If I offered you 3 weeks pay no or an entire years pay six years from now when your productivity and therefore income is higher which would you take?
  18. Major League Ready
    OK, it's not completely unprecedented but you are talking about an extreme rarity. Then there is the point Drivlikejehu makes which is a crucial point ... The player and his agent must be willing. Luis Robert and Alex Kirilloff are not the same. Additionally, these players are not equivalent cases. They both played at the AAA level and dominated. Also, Robert is an absolute elite athlete who plays a premium position. His defensive value was assured. Jiminez also played at AAA and dominated. He had a 996 OPS. Even if we ignore the likelihood Boras would never allow an extension at this point, these scenarios are most certainly not equivalent scenarios. Why is it so important that a guy who has still not proven himself above A ball be on the opening day roster? Is it really going to matter if the team waits for him to show 1 month of dominance above A+ ball?
  19. Major League Ready
    Yes, Some do. This conversation however is specifically about trading 3 weeks now for a year of an experienced and hopefully accomplished guy in his prime. It's a fanatical position that is exceptionally short-sighted. This particular player has a very high ceiling but has not played an inning of AAA and his performance at AA was certainly not dominant. Electing to exchange a few weeks of an unproven player for a year of an experienced player in his prime is the antithesis of good critical thinking and leadership and this "theory" is not going to change in time. BTW ... We heard the same indignant remarks here about Berrios. Fans assuming to better understand when a player is ready than the staff and leadership working with him every day. Of course, he struggled at first. There was even some of this type of talk about Burdi.
  20. Major League Ready
    I am sure you will. Fans are fanatical. It's not exactly logical for someone to ignore the fact that all of the people that have achieved the highest position in baseball have a different take. Therefore, it's not surprising you would not change your mind regardless of what facts are presented. Lots of fans actually believe they know how to run the team better than the people who have actual credentials.
  21. Major League Ready
    Thanks for this. I am quite happy to be watching a team win 90-100 games. It was not long ago we were watching 90-100 losses. I am even more pleased that it would appear we are positioned to be good for a number of years. They spent $10M-15M more than I expected and I thought they spent it wisely. I guess the fans that don’t recognize revenue enables spending, you might wonder why they didn’t just go buy better players. I also don’t place great predictive value in 2020 results. A lot of very good players struggled. I would still want Christian Yehlich on my team in 2021. The Twins are returning most of the position players who contributed the most in 2019. Plus, they have added Donaldson and Simmons. Before anyone says what about Rosario … He was 11th in WAR among position players in 2019 and replacing him provided $10M in payroll. I guess it would be fair to say we added Simmons with the savings.
  22. Major League Ready
    Apparently you have a superior understanding to all MLB GMs because they definitely follow the practice you suggest is incompetent. I guess we will see if Falvey agrees with you in a couple months.
  23. Major League Ready
    It sounds like you want a backup to the backup on the 26 man roster. I don't think too many teams have 3 legit SSs on their major league roster. I think we are in better shape than most having an elite SS and a former all-star as his back-up along with 2 or 3 guys in the minors that could be brought up if we are plagued with injuries.
  24. Major League Ready
    What about Broxton? Celestino is said to be ready defensively so they could use him if really needed. I also disagree that Kepler is not a suitable back up. He might not be quite as good as a pure CF but they are not going to get a back up with Kepler's bat. Assuming Buxton is not injured right out of the gate, they could use Kepler in CF while auditioning Kirilloff / Larnach / Rooker or use it to get ABs for Arraez. Kirilloff is not going to be here opening day. He has not proven to be ready and they have plenty of options. There is not a GM in this league (IMO) who would bring him up in this scenario. To lose a year in his prime for 3 weeks now would be short-sighted to the point of incompetence.
  25. Major League Ready
    If Simmons gets injured they are not going to use one of the AAAA guys. Their 1st move would be to put Polanco back at SS and use Arraez or Blankenhorn at 2B.
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