Major League Ready

Good article, Nick. The problem with trying to figure out roster construction this year is that we have little idea which prospects made improvements and how much they improved. While not tested in normal games, I could see pitching prospects making big strides. What if they have a couple pitching prospects that made big strides and want to start rotating them in for a look relatively early in the season? It might not be the obvious (Duran / Balazovic). There has been some rumbling that Canterino has improved. Having our AAA team in St. Paul also adds a twist. For example, they could promote Celestino to AAA and have him available anytime Buxton is out for more than a game or two. They can also have Kirilloff / Larnach and Gordon on standby. So what if the FO is thinking they have prospects that will be ready to go in the first couple months? It stands to reason that the supply of good SS will create a buying opportunity. Semien and Gregorius are not much of an improvement defensively but they would provide depth at SS. I don't think we get hurt adding one of the three. They have Taylor Rogers / Tyler Duffey / Jorge Alcala / Cody Stashak / Dakota Chalmers / Caleb Thielbar and Hansel Robles. Not sure what they expect from Colina. I am thinking at least one more RP unless they had some break throughs last year that change the landscape.

I am with you with regards to which Ozuna do you get which is why I added the "depending on cost". If he gets paid based on huge production last year during a 60 game season, I am with you on there being room for considerable regret. However, isn't that the case with a lot of free agents. They tend to get paid based level achieved not a sustained level. BTW ... I am assuming his defensive liability will lead to a discounted value but we will see.

This is how you build a powerhouse. Draft and develop. Not a free agent among them. Tony Gonsolin - Round 9 Dustin May - Round 3 Julio Urias – International (450K Signing Bonus) Walker Buehler – 24th overall pick Clayton Kershaw – 7th overall pick On the position player side they developed Bellinger / Seager / Smith / Pederson Verdugo and pick-ed up Muncy / Singer for nothing and there is Justin Turner. The Dodger FO and the rest of the organization has done a phenomenal job and they are going to have a long run in contention.

He would not get "a greater sum over a longer commitment" if MLB GMs believed this was even remotely accurate. Rosario’s best OPS+ for a season was 117. That is one point better than Ozuna’s 3rd best season. Ozuna’s best OPS+ (2020) was 179 which was 3rd in all of MLB. He also produced an OPS+ of 143 in 2017 which was the same year as Rosario’s best (117). Rosario had a couple stretches where he was truly great but he has never done it for more than half a season. I seriously doubt the contracts they each get reflect that MLB teams think they are the same player. Depending on cost, it could make sense to go Ozuna instead of Cruz. He can help in LF until our prospects take over.

I am assuming the reference was to Robles. He signed about 3 weeks ago.

Height in a receiver has a very distinct advantage. NFL QBs throw if enough precision to put the ball in a zone where only the taller player can reach it. SS movement is much more about quickness and length does not promote quickness. Reach can’t be overcome with quickness in football. It can in baseball. I am assuming the draft philosophy is that these bigger but athletic prospects project to be power hitting 2B & 3B that can still be great defenders at those positions. The fact that an occasional 6’4 guy sticks at SS does not diminish Rdehring’s point that taller guys are less likely to stick. Likelihood refers to the portion of the population, right. So, what is the height distribution among top shortstops? The first list are the highest WAR SS from 2019 & 2020. It’s not cumulative, I took the top guys from both years. 17 of the top 25 are 6’1 or under. The 2nd list are the guys that rated the highest defensively. 8 of the top 12 are 6”0 and under. This is not exactly sophisticated data gathering. However, this sample and history going much further back suggests that a player growing to 6’4 or above likely means the odds of being a top defensive SS are very low. Jean Segura - 5’10 Francisco Lindor – 5’11 Miguel Rojas – 5’11 José Iglesias – 5’11 Jorge Polanco – 5”11 Javier Baez – 6’0 Marcus Semien - 6’0 Paul DeJong – 6’0 Kevin Newman – 6’0 Bo Bichette – 6’0 Willy Adames – 6’0 Xander Bogaerts – 6’1 Tim Anderson – 6’1 Gleybor Torres – 6’1 Jonathan Villar – 6’1 Adalberto Mondesi – 6’1 Danby Swanson – 6”1 Trevor Story – 6’2 Trea Turner – 6’2 Amed Rosario – 6’2 Didi Gregorious – 6’2 Nick Ahmed – 6’2 Fernando Tatis Jr. – 6’3 Andrelton Simmons – 6’3 Corey Seager – 6’4 Paul DeJong – 6’0 Javier Baez – 6’0 Trevor Story – 6’2 Andrelton Simmons – 6’3 Marcus Semien - 6’0 Adalberto Mondesi – 6’1 Miguel Rojas – 5’11 Francisco Lindor – 5’11 José Iglesias – 5’11 Nick Ahmed – 6’2 Willy Adames – 6’0 Elvis Andrus – 6’0

Abreau was awesome last year but Sano's OPS was almost 100 points higher than Abreau in 2019. Sano is heading into his prime and Abreau is leaving his behind. It's funny, I caught heat early on for criticizing Sano. Then, he really improved his approach and discipline in 2019. Subsequently, he was a beast. Now I find myself rooting for the guy to repeat or improve that 2019 season. I have always admired Donaldson and he killed us often. I sure would to see some of his best stuff now that he is in Twins uniform. Those two guys going strong at the same time would be something especially if the 2019 version of Kepler was batting between them.

If I remember correctly Sano was a SS when we signed him. It's likely the best athletes and best fielders are SS at this age. Lots of them end up at 2B or 3B.

I wondered the same a few years ago when some posters here were complaining that we were not signing the most expensive International prospects. It made me wonder what evidence there was that it was a good strategy to sign 16 y/o players to huge bonuses. I wondered if it made more sense to spread it out. So, I took a list of the highest signing bonuses of all time and compiled the results. The success stories were few and far between. Sano is among the most productive top $ signings. The vast majority never made it to MLB baseball or were pedestrian at best. I thought I posted the results here but perhaps my memory is off. At any rate, when we have a $6M pool to work with we can sign a $2.2M guy and have plenty to spread around. However, the failure ratio of these really high bonus guys is so high that we should not be upset if our team does more spreading it around then signing "quality" as some have put it. "Quality" where quality is defined as becoming a well above average MLB player, is just to hard to assess at 16 years of age.

All true, especially the part about the off-season not being over. Also, we should keep in mind that nobody predicted (even here) the 2019 Twins would win 101 games. A lot of guys finally played to their potential. The key guys are still here. It’s more likely that guys who have proven they can do it bounce back then guys who have never proven it breaking out. So, there is room for optimism. Yes we have significant loss from that team (Cruz) but we have added Maeta and Donaldson. Yes, Rosario is also gone but he was 10th in WAR among position players in 2019. He hit 32 bombs but overall he was an average offensive player several well above average players. He can and will be replaced. We need to fill a couple holes, starting with a SP. That’s going to happen. Next, the FO needs to decide if we are best served by bring in a SS or getting a high quality utility player. Finally one more BP arm. Paxton and Kluber are intriguing bounce back candidates. Odorizzi would be fine too. Sign one of them. Then, add a top SS or a utility player (Hernandez or Profar) and Archie Bradley. That stacks up pretty well to Lynn / Hendricks and Eaton.

Has there been any news regarding How much Lewis progressed defensively while working at the alternate site last summer? I supposed any report by the Twins is going to be somewhat propaganda but it would still be nice to hear they are happy with his progress. One of the FA SS makes sense if they think he is still a full year away from being ready.

Name / Age / Free Agent / AAV Yasmani Grandal -- 32 -- 2024 -- $18,250,000 Dallas Keuchel -- 33 -- 2024 -- 18,666,666 Jose Abreu -- 34 -- 2023 -- 17,000,000 Liam Hendriks -- 32 -- 2025 -- 12,666,666 Lance Lynn -- 34 -- 2022 -- 8,000,000 The $74,583,332 invested in these 5 players is 61% of payroll. After this year they will $66.5M invested in 4 players 33 or older. There is always the possibility this works out but what are the odds? I am glad to see our FO is not placing this much emphasis on aging players. I share others concern over Donaldson but at least he is the only player we are invested in over 30.

It's really hard to compare anyone to Cruz in this context. Cruz was very good until he turned 35 when he became phenomenal. I doubt there has ever been a player that improved their career stats between the age 35-40. Trying to compare Rooker is hard to do. Does anyone remember the scene in Money Ball when Billy Beane explains to the staff they can't think in terms of replacing Giambi with one player. I think that applies here. It's not if we can replace him. Can we build a better team by investing elsewhere?

How do we trade for a free agent?

Trading good prospects for 1 year rentals is horrible asset management. In this particular case, the asset is a SS and the free agent market has multiple good options this year and next. I am assuming the cost of the free agent SSs is going to be suppressed this year between 2021 revenue concerns and big market teams waiting for several great options to become available next year.

wRC+ takes ball park into account. Story playing half his games in Coor's field is considered has a significant impact on wRC+

Thanks for this info. This is encouraging. There has been crumbs of info suggesting Canterino's stuff improved during the Covid break. It would really help the cause if a SP prospect or two stepped up to join Balazovic and Duran as high ceiling prospects.

Again, this is a bubble view. If they do nothing else, I agree completely, that they are less of a factor and the twins benefit this year. I doubt that is the case. Cleveland / Tampa / Oakland have all shuffled assets in this fashion in the past. It's a better buyers market in free agency than we have seen in a long time. They have the great pitching and a good infield with upside. Outfielders are the easiest asset to find in free agency and probably the most reliable. There is a lot of off-season left. IDK what Cleveland will do but I think the outline I provided is very doable and within a very modest payroll. My bet is they take advantage of this market. Even if they don't, they substantially improved their team beyond 2021. Fans who put huge weight on the current year will have a fit but that kind of micro view is a good way to always be mediocre. GMs can't afford that point of view if they want to keep their job. I guess the bottom line is that at a minimum they will be better after this year. Best case scenario for them they land some very good players for the next 2-3 years via free agency and remain a contender now and into the future.

Why does everyone presume Cleveland is just rolling over? They have positioned their team to take advantage of the extremely unusual free agent market. IDK if they will just cut payroll but they could easily afford to sign … One or even two of Marcel Ozuna / Joc Pederson / Eddie Rosario / Michael Brantley? A free agent 1B / OF combo guy with a good bat. Jake Odorizzi gives them a significantly younger SP than Carrasco. If they can’t land Odorizzi, there are a number of other SPs they could bring in for depth. Add 2 established RPs This could be done with high quality players for $40-50M or less. Their total payroll would be $75-85M and their offense would be substantially improved. How does this impact the Twins? Cleveland will be more likely to be competitive over the next several years. They also remove the risk associated with a SP in their age 34-36 seasons. Carrasco has been good but I would not argue if there strategy was to reinvest those payroll dollars in younger players. Plus, they have room in the budget going forward. These decisions impact the team for years and a lot pf people are focused on the moment and not even considering their options.

Lindor is projected at 4.8 WAR. He had 4.4 WAR in 2019 and was on a pace for 4.6 WAR in 2020 so this seems reasonable. Why would you assume Rosario and Gimenez perform at replacement level. Rosario is projected at 2.2 WAR and Gimenez 1.7 WAR. Therefore, the projected delta is .7 WAR. You are also making an assumption Cleveland does nothing to improve their club with the available funds or assets. Maybe they don’t but what if they use the $20M from Lindor to get a 3 WAR outfielder for $8M. What if they produce another 3 WAR by using the remaining $12M on other upgrades? I realize it’s theoretical but they would improve by 5.3 WAR + 2 prospects. Carrasco is 34 and 34 y/o SP s are very risky. They could replace him at some point in free agency with a younger SP for the same money. It’s surprising Tampa’s success (Oakland too) would educate fans on the necessity for teams outside the top revenue markets to get something in return for top players they can’t possibly afford to retain. Also keep in mind that no other team in baseball shared the opinion that Lindor / Carrasco were worth more or they would have been traded somewhere other than NY. Also keep in mind that Rosario just reached 1500 ABs which is quite often the point where MLB players step up and Gimenez was on pace for 2.1 WAR in his Rookie campaign. There is a slot of upside in this deal for Cleveland while moving a 34 y/o SP and a guy with 1 year of control. Obviously, it's not as simple as adding up projected WAR but the guys running the show in Cleveland know what they are doing.

I agree with you completely where trading good long-term assets for a 1 year rental. (See Realmuto to Philly) and many other examples. Signing a SS if Lewis is not going to stick at SS makes sense. I have no idea what level of confidence the FO has that he sticks at SS. He could be Buxton's replacement or even Donaldson's replacement with Donaldson to 1B and Sano to DH or traded. It might even make sense to get out of Donaldson's contract if he performs well enough this year to move him. Point being Lewis could be the guy to facilitate other moves. The supply of free agent SS over the next 2 years should provide an opportunity to get better value (production/$) than most other years.

A lot of elite players were bad in 2020. Garver has established (proven) he can be the best hitting catcher in all of MLB. It's wise to give him a chance knowing you have a 2nd very good catcher that can be utilized more often if Garver struggles. Getting Garver back anywhere near 2019 form could also make him a huge trade asset if Jeffers continues to impress.

If I was looking to place a bet on the biggest bounce back it might be Garver. He was not just good in 2019. He was also our best hitter the 2nd half of 2018. Garver also takes very good ABs. I don't expect him to hit at the torrid pace he did in 2019 but it would not be a bit surprising if he is among our highest OPS+ players. We should also give the guy props for putting in the effort to improve defensively.

IDK about that. He sucked last year but so did a lot of otherwise elite players. In 2019 his OPS was by far the highest in all of baseball. 175 points higher than JT Realmuto.