Major League Ready

If I remember correctly Sano was a SS when we signed him. It's likely the best athletes and best fielders are SS at this age. Lots of them end up at 2B or 3B.

I wondered the same a few years ago when some posters here were complaining that we were not signing the most expensive International prospects. It made me wonder what evidence there was that it was a good strategy to sign 16 y/o players to huge bonuses. I wondered if it made more sense to spread it out. So, I took a list of the highest signing bonuses of all time and compiled the results. The success stories were few and far between. Sano is among the most productive top $ signings. The vast majority never made it to MLB baseball or were pedestrian at best. I thought I posted the results here but perhaps my memory is off. At any rate, when we have a $6M pool to work with we can sign a $2.2M guy and have plenty to spread around. However, the failure ratio of these really high bonus guys is so high that we should not be upset if our team does more spreading it around then signing "quality" as some have put it. "Quality" where quality is defined as becoming a well above average MLB player, is just to hard to assess at 16 years of age.

All true, especially the part about the off-season not being over. Also, we should keep in mind that nobody predicted (even here) the 2019 Twins would win 101 games. A lot of guys finally played to their potential. The key guys are still here. It’s more likely that guys who have proven they can do it bounce back then guys who have never proven it breaking out. So, there is room for optimism. Yes we have significant loss from that team (Cruz) but we have added Maeta and Donaldson. Yes, Rosario is also gone but he was 10th in WAR among position players in 2019. He hit 32 bombs but overall he was an average offensive player several well above average players. He can and will be replaced. We need to fill a couple holes, starting with a SP. That’s going to happen. Next, the FO needs to decide if we are best served by bring in a SS or getting a high quality utility player. Finally one more BP arm. Paxton and Kluber are intriguing bounce back candidates. Odorizzi would be fine too. Sign one of them. Then, add a top SS or a utility player (Hernandez or Profar) and Archie Bradley. That stacks up pretty well to Lynn / Hendricks and Eaton.

Has there been any news regarding How much Lewis progressed defensively while working at the alternate site last summer? I supposed any report by the Twins is going to be somewhat propaganda but it would still be nice to hear they are happy with his progress. One of the FA SS makes sense if they think he is still a full year away from being ready.

Name / Age / Free Agent / AAV Yasmani Grandal -- 32 -- 2024 -- $18,250,000 Dallas Keuchel -- 33 -- 2024 -- 18,666,666 Jose Abreu -- 34 -- 2023 -- 17,000,000 Liam Hendriks -- 32 -- 2025 -- 12,666,666 Lance Lynn -- 34 -- 2022 -- 8,000,000 The $74,583,332 invested in these 5 players is 61% of payroll. After this year they will $66.5M invested in 4 players 33 or older. There is always the possibility this works out but what are the odds? I am glad to see our FO is not placing this much emphasis on aging players. I share others concern over Donaldson but at least he is the only player we are invested in over 30.

It's really hard to compare anyone to Cruz in this context. Cruz was very good until he turned 35 when he became phenomenal. I doubt there has ever been a player that improved their career stats between the age 35-40. Trying to compare Rooker is hard to do. Does anyone remember the scene in Money Ball when Billy Beane explains to the staff they can't think in terms of replacing Giambi with one player. I think that applies here. It's not if we can replace him. Can we build a better team by investing elsewhere?

How do we trade for a free agent?

Trading good prospects for 1 year rentals is horrible asset management. In this particular case, the asset is a SS and the free agent market has multiple good options this year and next. I am assuming the cost of the free agent SSs is going to be suppressed this year between 2021 revenue concerns and big market teams waiting for several great options to become available next year.

wRC+ takes ball park into account. Story playing half his games in Coor's field is considered has a significant impact on wRC+

Thanks for this info. This is encouraging. There has been crumbs of info suggesting Canterino's stuff improved during the Covid break. It would really help the cause if a SP prospect or two stepped up to join Balazovic and Duran as high ceiling prospects.

Again, this is a bubble view. If they do nothing else, I agree completely, that they are less of a factor and the twins benefit this year. I doubt that is the case. Cleveland / Tampa / Oakland have all shuffled assets in this fashion in the past. It's a better buyers market in free agency than we have seen in a long time. They have the great pitching and a good infield with upside. Outfielders are the easiest asset to find in free agency and probably the most reliable. There is a lot of off-season left. IDK what Cleveland will do but I think the outline I provided is very doable and within a very modest payroll. My bet is they take advantage of this market. Even if they don't, they substantially improved their team beyond 2021. Fans who put huge weight on the current year will have a fit but that kind of micro view is a good way to always be mediocre. GMs can't afford that point of view if they want to keep their job. I guess the bottom line is that at a minimum they will be better after this year. Best case scenario for them they land some very good players for the next 2-3 years via free agency and remain a contender now and into the future.

Why does everyone presume Cleveland is just rolling over? They have positioned their team to take advantage of the extremely unusual free agent market. IDK if they will just cut payroll but they could easily afford to sign … One or even two of Marcel Ozuna / Joc Pederson / Eddie Rosario / Michael Brantley? A free agent 1B / OF combo guy with a good bat. Jake Odorizzi gives them a significantly younger SP than Carrasco. If they can’t land Odorizzi, there are a number of other SPs they could bring in for depth. Add 2 established RPs This could be done with high quality players for $40-50M or less. Their total payroll would be $75-85M and their offense would be substantially improved. How does this impact the Twins? Cleveland will be more likely to be competitive over the next several years. They also remove the risk associated with a SP in their age 34-36 seasons. Carrasco has been good but I would not argue if there strategy was to reinvest those payroll dollars in younger players. Plus, they have room in the budget going forward. These decisions impact the team for years and a lot pf people are focused on the moment and not even considering their options.

Lindor is projected at 4.8 WAR. He had 4.4 WAR in 2019 and was on a pace for 4.6 WAR in 2020 so this seems reasonable. Why would you assume Rosario and Gimenez perform at replacement level. Rosario is projected at 2.2 WAR and Gimenez 1.7 WAR. Therefore, the projected delta is .7 WAR. You are also making an assumption Cleveland does nothing to improve their club with the available funds or assets. Maybe they don’t but what if they use the $20M from Lindor to get a 3 WAR outfielder for $8M. What if they produce another 3 WAR by using the remaining $12M on other upgrades? I realize it’s theoretical but they would improve by 5.3 WAR + 2 prospects. Carrasco is 34 and 34 y/o SP s are very risky. They could replace him at some point in free agency with a younger SP for the same money. It’s surprising Tampa’s success (Oakland too) would educate fans on the necessity for teams outside the top revenue markets to get something in return for top players they can’t possibly afford to retain. Also keep in mind that no other team in baseball shared the opinion that Lindor / Carrasco were worth more or they would have been traded somewhere other than NY. Also keep in mind that Rosario just reached 1500 ABs which is quite often the point where MLB players step up and Gimenez was on pace for 2.1 WAR in his Rookie campaign. There is a slot of upside in this deal for Cleveland while moving a 34 y/o SP and a guy with 1 year of control. Obviously, it's not as simple as adding up projected WAR but the guys running the show in Cleveland know what they are doing.

I agree with you completely where trading good long-term assets for a 1 year rental. (See Realmuto to Philly) and many other examples. Signing a SS if Lewis is not going to stick at SS makes sense. I have no idea what level of confidence the FO has that he sticks at SS. He could be Buxton's replacement or even Donaldson's replacement with Donaldson to 1B and Sano to DH or traded. It might even make sense to get out of Donaldson's contract if he performs well enough this year to move him. Point being Lewis could be the guy to facilitate other moves. The supply of free agent SS over the next 2 years should provide an opportunity to get better value (production/$) than most other years.

A lot of elite players were bad in 2020. Garver has established (proven) he can be the best hitting catcher in all of MLB. It's wise to give him a chance knowing you have a 2nd very good catcher that can be utilized more often if Garver struggles. Getting Garver back anywhere near 2019 form could also make him a huge trade asset if Jeffers continues to impress.

If I was looking to place a bet on the biggest bounce back it might be Garver. He was not just good in 2019. He was also our best hitter the 2nd half of 2018. Garver also takes very good ABs. I don't expect him to hit at the torrid pace he did in 2019 but it would not be a bit surprising if he is among our highest OPS+ players. We should also give the guy props for putting in the effort to improve defensively.

IDK about that. He sucked last year but so did a lot of otherwise elite players. In 2019 his OPS was by far the highest in all of baseball. 175 points higher than JT Realmuto.

I think you might be confusing quality of player with asset value. A 4 WAR player that cost $35M is probably a better player than a 3 WAR player at $5M. However, the 3 WAR at $5M is a more valuable asset because the $30M delta can be invested in Cruz / Odorizzi and a RP. The equation that best represents value is WAR/$ weighted by years of control. No matter how you slice it or dice it, funds are NOT unlimited and production per dollar equates to value when trying to construct a team (assets). Another way of looking at it is that players who produce a high WAR to cost ratio make it possible to sign players like Donaldson or free agents in general where the cost per WAR is very high.

Yes for Polanco. 2 years of control vs 4 years for Polanco. With Jeffers it depends on how they project his bat but probably given 5 years vs 2. Garver is a toss up with 3 years vs 2. The Rays have been able to compete despite a substantial revenue disadvantage. They maximize asset value in part by valuing years of control. Philly lost big in the Realmuto trade. They were still a 500 team for the two years of service they got by trading for Realmuto for Sanchez. How much better would the Philly's future look with Sanchez?

Clippard would be OK. He is going to be 36 this season. I am hoping for a someone a bit younger and more dominant. I am far more worried about replacing Cruz than Rosario. Cruz had an OPS that was 200 points higher than Rosario over the last two years. Rosario has been very steady around 800 after peaking at 837 in 2017. I would take the over on Rooker if the target was 800 for OPS. Even Jake Cave produced an OPS of 759 over the past two seasons so I think a platoon over Rooker and Cave gets you very close to an 800 OPS.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-zips-projections-an-introduction/

It's encouraging to hear from players about the Twins use of analytics. Perhaps even more encouraging is hearing that the staff is doing a great job in coaching them on how to use this information. Great interview, Seth.

In 2019 the Twins had a lot of guys with potential that had not been realized. Kepler / Polanco and Garver all stepped up a level. Sano was also great although he had already shown this level of productivity as a rookie but only played in 80 games. Buxton was quite good too but he only played in 87 games. Arreaz also appeared on the scene. The FO filled in some roles with FAs. I like our odds a lot better in 2021 than I did in 2019. The guys that really produced are still here. However, now they have proven they can produce at a level we had not seen from these players 2019. Before anyone says what about Rosario, he was 11th in WAR among position players. The difference is they are coming off a poor year but a lot of great players did not produce during the shortened season. The 2021 team needs to be rounded out. That starts with one more good SP. Then, a SS or a high caliber utility man like Hernandez. Another RP would be a plus and there are quite a few of them available. I am not sure how much they will spend but Odorizzi, Hernandez and a good RP should be viable.

I considered that but then I thought ... What if Larnach absolutely crushes it the first month of the season? Hopefully, they are both crushing it but what if Larnach puts up a 950+ OPS and Kirilloff is at 800? I guess part of this depends on if Rooker is doing well and also how they approach the DH. It's a different case if Cruz is back.