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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    In 2019 the Twins had 9 guys with an OPS of 800 or better. In 2020, they had three above 800. Unfortunately, two of them (Buxton & Donaldson) only had 237 PAs between them. The first step toward having the best or one of the best rosters in MLB is for the players we have to play up to their capabilities and stay healthy. A new hitting coach that can get them to improve their approach would help. A good free agent utility guy should be doable and that would help too. That 10th guy is going to get a lot of ABs. Starting pitching should get priority in terms of free agent budget. Bauer is the only difference maker and we are not going to win that battle. Taijuan Walker might be risky but he seems like the best upside guy. MLB trade rumors predicts 2/16. He is young enough they could offer him a back loaded 3 year deal if they believe in him. Perhaps 2 years (6M/10M) and a 3rd year option at 14M with a $2M buyout) That would leave room for the BP help we need.
  2. Major League Ready
    Why does Larnach get no love?
  3. Major League Ready
    The Saints coexist with the Twins just fine so why would it all the sudden be a problem if they were a AAA team?
  4. Major League Ready
    Using the scenario you provided of gate related revenue at 50%, revenue would be reduced by at least $60M even if they played 162 games. That's probably not realistic but even at that optimistic number maintaining the same level of payroll is "far fetched" when revenue is down $60M. If they could know for sure that the worst case scenario would be that gate related revenue would not go by more than 20%, it might be realistic to hope they would only reduce payroll by $25M and take their lumps in terms of profit. Unfortunately, there is a pretty good chance revenues could be down by more than 20% and none of the teams are going to construct a budget that has a good chance of loosing tens of millions dollars. This would change considerably if they players were willing to adjust salaries based on revenue reduction but that seems very unlikely.
  5. Major League Ready
    I doubt anyone gets LeMahieu away from the Yankees. Every year there is a plea to sign the top FA starting pitcher and every year those players go to teams that are in the top 6 or 7 in revenue. This is not the year that changes.
  6. Major League Ready
    I know! Why doesn't every team just spend as much as NY and LA? So what if they generate a couple hundred million more in revenue.
  7. Major League Ready
    There could be a couple surprises in the form of non-tenders from other teams that the Twins pick-up. To come up with a roster on par with The Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Padres, and Rays will require rebounds from Kepler / Garver, and Donaldson. Buxton will need to stay healthy. Then, we need the youngsters to fill out the roster and I seriously doubt that's going to happen on opening day. I am hoping Rooker starts in LF and they pick-up a couple good non-tenders to fill out the bench with quality players. Then, I am hoping Larnach and/or Kirilloff make it up before the 1/2 way point of the season and play well out of the gate. Obviously, we need another SP too.
  8. Major League Ready
    It sounds like you (and others) are hoping the Twins will make a leap of faith the revenue will be normal or close to normal. This hope begins with players agreeing to take reduced compensation. This assumes a willingness on the player’s part to accept less than 100% of normal compensation. Not only did the players Association refuse to do this after agreeing it would be necessary, they went so far as to see they did not see the need. It is very difficult to believe the player’s would accept reductions that reflect revenue losses when they have already refused to do so and when they can’t understand the need in the wake of 40%+ revenue reduction. Free Agency has already begun. Is the entire league going to wait and see if a deal is struck? If such a deal were going to be negotiated, owners and the Player’s Association would have been working on an agreement before the season ever ended or worst case when the World Series concluded. Is it going on in secret? I seriously doubt it. Even if we have a full season and 50% of gate related revenues, the loss in revenue for the Twins would be roughly $60M. It's probably not going to be a full season. Even if we have a 130 game season, that would add losses approximately equal to 20% of fixed operating expense. For the Twins that's another roughly $15M. So, these projections with spending going down $10-15M have no basis in reason.
  9. Major League Ready
    That's what many posters said in 2018 when the top 10 free agent RPs signed for an averaged 9.6M annually. The produced a cumulative fWAR 1.6. Only one of them broke 1 WAR. High-end RPs are the worst investment of any type of player. Not where I would spend in a year when they have to replace several players and don't have much in terms of available budget. BTW ... All of those top RPs managed to produce 1 win for every $60M spent in 2018.
  10. Major League Ready
    It would not be a big deal if Kirilloff never played at AAA had he tore up AA but that’s not the case. He had a 756 OPS at AA. That’s not exactly screaming the player has proven he is ready to jump AAA to the MLB level. The guy who has earned a spot on the big league club is Rooker. He takes Rosario’s spot and we have a good 4th OFer in Cave with Wade as depth. We don’t have a burning need so to burn a year of service time when Kirilloff is in his prime just to have him for the 1st 6 weeks of horrible asset management. Let Kirilloff and/or Larnach prove they are ready to play on the ML club.
  11. Major League Ready
    They lost 10-4 / 8-2 & 5-1 so I thinks it's safe to say the opportunity cost of not having Escobar for the 2019 playoffs was zero.
  12. Major League Ready
    You will have to elaborate. I don't understand the point given he was a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. Would would we have better with him even if they had resigned him? Sano was signifcantly better offensively than Escobar in 2019 and Escobar was terrible in 2020. I loved Escobar but I don't see how we were hurt by trading him and if Duran pans out it was a significant net gain.
  13. Major League Ready
    The Twins simply were not very good that year. They were not going to be even remotely serious contenders with or without him. The way I I see, they can't loose for having made a trade in a year they were not going to contend. The question is did the acquire anyone who will contribute. If they get an average ML starter ... it's a win. If they get a mid rotation SP it's a win. If Duran is a solid #2SP ... It's a huge win. If we get two average ML starters ... it's a huge win. If you look back throughout the past decade, they are 4X more players on playoff rosters that are acquired in similar transactions as compared to trading for impact players. Getting something out of players about to be FAs is a huge boost to building a contender in a mid-market. We could have been a little better and enjoyed Eduardo for another couple months. If it turns out we get someone who makes us significantly better for 6 or more years, I will take that path every time.
  14. Major League Ready
    It would be great if this was viable but there is absolutely no chance the "local government" is going to commit to allowing fans. We are talking about public health and safety in the midst of a pandemic. Baseball is a very long way from an essential service. The only hope we have of a semi-normal off-season would be if the players agreed to a salary structure that accounted for attendance. I don't think that is going to happen given the stance they took last year.
  15. Major League Ready
    I think we might see the Mets sign a couple deals similar to what you have described above. That's what happened when the Dodgers were bought. That strategy failed for them and they radically changed their approach but the Mets may still try to buy a team. The Yankees are badly in need of starting pitching. We could see them spend aggressively and then try to reset their luxury tax next year. I don't see any chance of a mid-market or small market team following this strategy.
  16. Major League Ready
    I agree baseball is a free market and therefore your statement is a contradiction. Owners can't fleece players if a free market exists. You may also want to look back at the actions of both sides last year and re-evaluate which side acted with integrity. Owners paid Milb players in spite of them not playing. They also kept the vast majority of their staff despite a 50% (roughly) revenue loss. How many companies were even remotely as generous. Players on the other hand agreed to renegotiate if fans were not present. Then, they ignored this fact and basically said we want every dime regardless of what happens with revenue.
  17. Major League Ready
    They could not have lost over $3B (100M+ per team) if revenue was only down by $3.1B. There are variable costs that we not realized because of the 60 game season as well as some other cost cutting measures that would assure a difference between revenue decrease and net loss. I have not seen anything that detailed losses but the estimates for lost revenue are closer to $5B. The estimated losses(EBITA) I have seen lately are between 2.7B & 3.1B
  18. Major League Ready
    What if he would have brought in whatever RP they have that had the lowest probability of success but he pitched a scoreless inning. Would you have said that was a poor decision before knowing the results? Pitch hitting Adrianza for Cruz is not a good decision if Adrianza happens to hit a HR. It's a bad decision with a fortunate outcome. If you take a cab home because you are intoxicated, and the cab is involved in an accident, it would not have been a better idea to drive yourself. I would suggest the right decision is the one with the highest probability of success. However, I would allow for overriding the analytics when a guy is in the zone like Snell was in game 6.
  19. Major League Ready
    Anyone care to predict what happens if fans are not present next year or if 25% of capacity is allowed? Are we going to have another 60 game season? No season at all? Is it possible the teams and union are discussing this without the fact they are negotiating leaking out to the public. I doubt it but I can't imagine both sides have not recognized the need of addressing this issue. How do they determine a budget with a revenue swing of up to 40%. I would think spending is going to be extremely limited for most teams unless an agreement is reached that considers attendance.
  20. Major League Ready
    I appreciate the effort here but I really don't know how we can estimate their budget. If they are optimistic and assume they will make two-thirds of normal attendance generated revenue, the result is a $40M decrease in revenue. I am coming up with 93M as opposed to the $80M estimated here. I used arbitration values approximately the same as TD estimates and Maeda is estimated at $9M to arrive at $93M. I don't know where the budget ends up but your general theme that there won't be a lot of dollars available and six spots to fill is accurate regardless of the exact budget.
  21. Major League Ready
    I agree with you that there are other better areas to invest given we have Jeffers and Garver. I do not agree other teams have promoted players with MiLB performance similar to Lewis. He has 33 games at AA with a wRC+ of 88. I have a very hard time believing their are examples of other teams promoting a player with a similar MiLB history but I would be happy to eat crow if you can provide examples.
  22. Major League Ready
    Baez is in his final year and his wRC+ for 2020 was 57. Doubt he would cost the farm but I still don't see the point. His career wRC+ is 101. Polanco is a career 104 wRC+. In their last full year (2019) Baez Wrc+ was 114 and Polanco 119.
  23. Major League Ready
    For a player with one year of control? Story is a FA after next year. The last thing we need to do is give up top SP prospects for a guy with one year of control no matter how good the guy with one year of control happens to be. I would assume the Twins would much prefer Lewis end up as the every day SS and hopefully in the not too distant future. Although it seems highly unlikely he is promoted to the ML level until he proves himself for more than 22 games in the AZ fall league. Polanco is probably a trade asset once Lewis is established.
  24. Major League Ready
    Jeffers was called upon because of injury. That’s an entirely different scenario than opting to use a prospect from the start of the season. In this case, they would actually be making room for Lewis. In addition, Jeffers had also proven to be ready defensively that’s not what we are hearing about Lewis. Jeffers also had an Ops+ of 151 at AA, Lewis 88. Lewis was promoted to AA in spite of regressing at A+ from 2018 to 2019. I don’t see Jeffers situation as remotely parallel to Lewis. It would be aggressive to promote him without a need caused by injury if he If he kills AA for a half-season. Promoting because he had 22 good games in the AFL is reckless.
  25. Major League Ready
    I just don't know what to use for a budget. It seems unlikely teams will assume fans will be back. Will the players agree to a reduction in salary based on attendance levels? Is it possible that negotiation takes place immediately following the WS. If so, I would expect next to nothing happening until an agreement is reached. Here is what I expect .... Twins will non-tender Rosario. Rooker will be in the OF. He is the most established in terms of Milb success. He had 65 games at AAA with a 933 OPS. Kirilloff has 94 games at AA and had a mediocre year in 2019. His OPS was 756. Kirilloff and/or Larnach will not start the season at the MLB level but will be promoted during the 2021 season. Lewis also will not start the season with the MLB club. He only has 33 games at the AA level and his OPS was only 649 at AA. Yes, he was great in the AZ fall league but that's a SS of 22 games. Sano will be with the Twins to start the season. They are not going to sell low on him. The biggest expenditure will be a FA starting pitcher. There will be a couple RPs signed. A utility player will be signed as a FA. However, I would not be shocked if they decided to give Gordon and/or Blankenhorn a shot. I just think there will be some good opportunities to sign this type of players this year.
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