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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    If you are looking to provide proof of which acquisitions are the most impactful, looking at the top 3 in terms of inning pitched is not a great data set. I took a look at the acquisition method for the top 20 SPs by war for the last three years. I separated the acquisition method as follows. Drafted Trade while still a prospect Free Agents Trades for established SPS 2019 4-Trade while still a prospect 7-Drafted (1 international) 6-Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 3-Trades for established SPS 2018 8-Trade while still a prospect 8-Drafted (1 international) 2-Free Agents - One came from Japan 2-Trades for established SPS 2017 2-Trade while still a prospect 11-Drafted 4-Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 3-Trades for established SPS Total 2017-19 14 (23%) - Trade while still a prospect 26 (43%) - Drafted 13 (22%) - Free Agents - Including 1 from Japan & 1 from Korea) 08 (13%) - Trades for established SPS 66% were drafted or acquired by trade before they became established. Traded before becoming established is defined as acquired with with no MLB experience or never having a year with over 1 WAR.
  2. Major League Ready
    They made a very lopsided trade to get Glasnow. They traded Chris Archer with 2 years of Control for Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Archer had 2 years of below league average performance. Glasnow has been very good and they have 3 more years of control. Meadows was great last year but hurt this year. They have 4 more years of control with him. They have always been willing to give up good players with 1-2 years of control for players with 4-5 years of control and/or prospects. They have always been great at drafting and developing SPs. They have also done a great job with other teams cast-offs. They got Nick Anderson from us as well as Curtiss (tonight's opener) and Slegers from us, all of whom we DFAd.
  3. Major League Ready
    I am not sure on most of the answers but well done in terms of outlining the questions. I will say that I agree with DC Twin in the primary investment being made in starting pitching. There could be some very good deals out there next year for utility players. There are going to be some non-tenders that can be signed relatively cheap. I think the players and league should be back at the bargaining table as soon as the WS ends. They need to come up with something other than 100% compensation if fans are not present. I could be wrong but it would seem logical that teams are going to be very conservative this off-season if an agreement for salary relief does not take place. Maybe teams will be confident we will be back to normal next year but I doubt it.
  4. Major League Ready
    I am not puzzled by Max's low BA. It's a lot harder to get hits when you constantly hit into 4 infielders on one side of the diamond. Of course, you addressed the cure. A few hard bunts down the 3rd base line would take teams out of the shift or at least take one less guy away from the right side. A lot of players had really bad years with the chaos of Covid. I want to see Max in 2021. It makes sense to keep him here while we audition Rooker / Kirilloff and Larnach. He would still have 3 years of a team friendly deal. If he rebounds to somewhere near 2019 numbers he is a great team asset or trade asset going forward.
  5. Major League Ready
    Hendricks was waived three times and traded twice before he became an impact player so the comparison makes no sense. On the other hand, Tampa's BP has benefited greatly from out cast-offs. I would sure would have liked to have Nick Anderson this year plus 4 more years of team control.
  6. Major League Ready
    There are varying degrees of difficulty. The 1B is still present when a RH bunts to beat the shift. He can field the ball with the pitcher covering. Extreme shifts against a LH hitter like we see with Kepler have no defenders on the left side. The degree of difficult is far lower than a RH hitter. It’s also FAR easier than bunting for a hit against a traditional defense. The direction does not need to be nearly as good and the ball does need to be deadend. As a matter of fact, the harder the better. Learning to bunt for hits against ML pitching and a traditional defense is not so easy. Learning to guide the ball somewhere within 25 ft of 3rd base with a hard bunt not nearly as tough. If considered in terms of a single AB, it’s not that big a deal. However, in the case of LH hitters who face extreme shifts, forcing opponents to abndoned the shift will result in better results across literally thousands of ABs. If I were LH hitter who faces exremes shifts I would not be willing to accept the imp[act of shifts on my career. I would be working very hard in practice and during the off season to learn to bunt hard toward 3B and beat the shift. I would hope that any player with the skills of a ML player could learn this skill within a reasonable amount of time. Sounds like a great spring training activity to me.
  7. Major League Ready
    Apparently, the new call is that stats lie or don't matter, at least if you don't like what they reveal. Going back to 7/1/18 to give the rough equivalent of two seasons given the shortened season this year, Rosario's WAR is 2.2. Kepler's is 7. He was in the bottom 5% this year in terms of chase rate. Rosario ranks 35th in OPS among corner outfielders this year. One spot behind Robbie Grossman. I disagree he has greatly corrected his chasing problem. I would say his approach has gone from horrid to very bad. The stats would suggest whatever improvement he has made has done little to improve his OPS. I would prefer to give the job to Rooker and allocate the money to starting pitching or a utility player.
  8. Major League Ready
    I did not assemble the data. It came from Fangraphs.
  9. Major League Ready
    I used players with 120 ABs to gather a larger sample size. If you prefer using 180 Abs he was 152nd out out of 157.
  10. Major League Ready
    Rosario ranked 257 of 267 players with 120 ABs this year. He went from absurdly undisciplined to the bottom 5% of the league. It's maddening because he could be one of the best offense players. It's not just swinging outside the zone. He developed a little bit of discipline early in the count but then he swings at terrible pitches when he does get ahead. There is just no reason for pitchers to throw him anything decent.
  11. Major League Ready
    Rod Carew would have hit 900 against the shifts they put on Kepler. It drives me crazy that Kepler has not done anything about it and twins management should have insisted he learn how to bunt adequately to nullify this shift. The shift the put on him obviously takes away hits. It would appear Kepler and the team have accepted teams taking away hits for the rest of his career because that's what will happen if Kepler does not learn to bunt. A little slap bunt would be even more effective because it would go into left field. If he used a hitting motion for a slap bunt he could even use it with 2 strikes. Pull hitters should be working on this stuff in MiLB. Allowing others teams to take this advantage is incredibly stupid. Our organization should be working on this with current prospects to gain an advantage over the rest of the league. Our prospects that cant adapt to using the entire field should be required to learn how to bunt or slap bunt adequately enough to beat a shift.
  12. Major League Ready
    Not that I don't agree but the real problem was scoring 1 run per game. I think their biggest need next year is better plate discipline. Not just in terms of swinging outside the zone but laying off tough pitches when they are ahead in the count. It appeared to me opposing pitchers knew our guys would be aggressive when ahead in the count. They threw tough breaking balls or just did not give up much of the plate even when ahead. Our guys fouled off the pitches to even the count or put the ball in play with weak contact. At least that's what it seemed like to me. I don't have the stats to back it up.
  13. Major League Ready
    The chances are pretty good they resign Cruz unless one of the big market teams are willing to give him a 2 year deal. I also don't believe the Twins are as inclined to move Sano to DH as some posters here. The team is not likely to start the season with Kirilloff on the ML roster which makes it very easy to find a spot for Rooker who was considered more ready for the majors. Starting Kirilloff at AAA is trhe safest approach. It gives them the opportunity to adjust their roster after a couple months if needed and it does not burn a year of control on a player who will likely be a core player going forward. Rosario is gone. Rooker is in LF to start the season with Cave as the 4th OFer. The next moves will be addressed after Kirilloff or Larnarch establish they are ready by sustaining a high level of play at AAA. What they need is a good solution for a utility infielder and another quality SP.
  14. Major League Ready
    We can't look at next year based on past history. Never in the past history of the league has every team lost $100M or more. Teams would be cutting payroll, especially small and mid-market teams even if they expected a return to normal next year. As Chief points out, there is still great uncertainty about attendance next year. If, and it's a big IF, the teams and players reached a reasonable agreement that adjusts player salary based on attendance, we could play 162 games. Players would make between two-thirds and full salary based on attendance. However, it's hard to believe the players will be willing to adjust their salary based on the hard line they took last year after both sides agreed the payout would have to be adjusted if fans were not present. Let's hope they have they start working on an agreement based on attendance as soon as the WS is over. That would be in the best interest of a lot of players, teams and the fans because I would expect the teams to severely roll back spending if an agreement to adjust salary based on attendance related to Covid is not reached.
  15. Major League Ready
    Eddie is a very low probability. Rooker / Cave platoon until Kirilloff or Larnach push their way on to the roster. Hopefully, Rooker makes that very difficult. Perhaps they trade Cave at that point. Time to let go Gonzalez and Adrianza. They should be able to find a FA utility player and perhaps give Blankenhorn a shot. Resign May. If we don't tender a contract to Rosario, we have $70M coming off the books not counting May. We can afford to keep him. Make a hard run at Bauer. The $70M will be offset by increases of roughly $15M between Sanos increase and arbitration raises. I also assume almost ever team will cut payroll this year because of Covid related loses. However, the Twins could probably still afford Bauer
  16. Major League Ready
    I think is exactly how it would go if we did not have a pandemic this year. There are going to be a ton of non-tenders and Rosario fits the profile. I could actually see the Twins non-tendering him and picking up a free agent RH outfielder.
  17. Major League Ready
    Buxton only has 62 ABs in the past 30 days but his OPS is 65 points higher. Having said this I would not phase him out right now either. However, I would give Rooker an opportunity to earn the job.
  18. Major League Ready
    Eddie's BABIP is lower this year because he is making a lot of weak contact even when he is ahead in the count. He isn't swing at balls 16" off the plate this year. Consequently, he is striking out less. He also isnt getting anything to hit because pitchers know they can get him to swing on borderline pitchers or even pitches off the plate when they are behind in the count.
  19. Major League Ready
    I agree in concept, Nick. However, I am not so sure his poor performance is a product of "diminished skills". He still stings the ball when he gets a hit to pitch. Of course, thats not too often. While he has quit swinging at pitches 16 inches off the plate but he still swings at anything close even when he is ahead in the count. Therefore, pitchers have no reason to give him anything to hit even when they are behind. He ends up with a lot of weak contact. Most of the time when he is ahead it's because the first two pitches are no where near the zone. Then, he swings at anything close instead of getting a good pitch to hit. I think he would be significantly above league average if he had average plate discipline. He has demonstrated he is either unwilling or unable to apply an approach that gets him decent pitches to hit. My guess is Rooker and Cave take his playing time next year until Kirilloff or Larnach show they are ready. At least we have Rooker for LH pitching the rest of this year.
  20. Major League Ready
    I share your desire to get a look at Duran but I understand the team not relying on a rookie SP. Yes, there are success stories but I want to F/O to play the odds. Specific to SPs, the percentage that come up and have immediate success is quite low. Most of the immediate successes are top 30 type prospects and even then many fail at first. Duran is intriguing but not quite that level. It would also be a different story if Pineada was not a week away from returning. Again, I would like to see Duran too but it's not hard to understand why the FO is not taking the path.
  21. Major League Ready
    If you recall, many beat this same drum with Berrios and Burdi. Some even said they would be our best pitchers. Berrios had an ERA of 8 his first season and Burdi was no where near ready. Many great pitching prospects struggle at first even if its just their first few games. The Twins are electing to avoid that risk when every game is critical.
  22. Major League Ready
    He did not "work" the count. Bieber missed badly twice with two pitches that never looked like they had a chance at being anywhere near the strike zone.
  23. Major League Ready
    He has been slightly better this year but still so bad that pitchers are going to abuse him. I have only seen one well stuck ball this year. That was the HR against the cardinals and the pitcher missed his spot by 18 inches and left it right where Rosario likes it. It has still been very rare to see Rosario get anything decent to hit because he is either unable or unwilling to make pitchers throw him anything that gets much of the plate. The league has adjusted. He was fantastic the 2nd half of 2017 and the 1st half of 2018. He was so great opposing pitchers pitched him very careful. They learned there was no need to give him much to hit and that he would chase wildly with 2 strikes. Now, everyone knows they can get him to swing at anything close in pretty much any quadrant of the zone. That's just too much for anyone to cover. The only difference I see this year is that he is not chasing the stuff that is way out of the zone. He will need to improve his approach significantly beyond what we have seen so far if he is every going to get back to anything near the last half of 2017 / 1st half of 2018. I would rotate between Rosario and Cave until one of them wins the job.
  24. Major League Ready
    I was frustrated with Sano in 2018 but I never saw the point in selling low on him. Then, last year his transformation in terms of plate discipline was thoroughly impressive. I love that he got it together and he deserves a little early patience. This lineup will really be a killer if Sano and Donaldson get it going.
  25. Major League Ready
    It makes it harder to drop hits in front of OFers if they don't have to worry about covering the deepest parts of the OF. Some gap power on occasion will keep the OFers honest.
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