Major League Ready

The roster construction you mention here and earlier sure seems to contribute to the inconsistency of this team and a horrible record against LHP. Too many slow guys who are below average defenders and can't run the bases. I would guess this particular problem is why the continue to give Rooker an opportunity. Not that he solves the below average defender portion of this problem. IMO, a good way to start this retool is to move Donaldson this off-season and bring up Miranda. We don't need him blocking Miranda and we don't need his $21.75M contract on the books in 2023 or the $8M buyout in 2024 because I seriously doubt he is going to be worth the $16M option. Let's do what we need to next year to retool this roster and bring up the myriad of SP prospects who should be ready and use that money to bring back Jose Berrios or someone like him in 2023. Arraez and Polanco are redundant in my view. Trade one of them this off-season for a SS that is near ready or a stud pitching prospect if you can get one. Finding a RH outfielder and a long-term SS would make a big difference on this roster. Finding a SS to pair with Miranda would bode well for the next several years. Polanco or Arraez at 2B and one of several options will work at 1B. Sign Buxton and put Kirilloff in the OF. We have plenty of 1B. Add the RH OFer that started this tangent and you have a very good roster of position players. I should add we have a bunch of guys in the minors + Gordon that look to be good utility players.

Agree with the pitching part. Donaldson is signed through 2023 and a $16M option for 2024 withan $8M buyout. We would be better off long-term to get out of that contract ASAP and transition to Miranda next year. Ideally, we trade Donaldson and pay $5-7M of his salary. I believe Miranda could produce as well as a 3y y/o Donaldson in 2023. Take the extra $15M and sign a $30M SP instead of a $15M SP or sign Buxton. Actually, they could afford both with Donaldson off the books.

Enlow might not be enough under the radar guy to be the next Ober but I have a feeling he emerges next year. I guess Sands is the same kind of under the radar prospect that could turn into a solid MLB starter. Valimont is nothing like Ober in that he struggles with command and Ober has plus command. However, he has the stuff and he would be very good if he were able to develop even average command. He is 24 and it does not seem to be improving so I have my doubts. I am hoping moving to the BP and getting more frequent reps helps his control. Sawyer Gibson-Long is the one that most reminds me of Ober. Great command. He would be a good bet if he could dial up the velo a couple mph like Ober was able to do.

I meant the whole thing is a bit perplexing. I am assuming they signed him because he has been reliable. He starts great. Then, goes off the rails and back to pitching very well. While he was not necessarily my first choice, I thought he was a solid signing. This season was cursed.

You think the Cardinals pitching coach fixed him over night?

I am at a loss as to what we should conclude from his sudden improvement.

If it makes you feel better, they failed. The Pohlad’s know the plan failed. Reasonable plans / actions fail quite frequently in MLB. Players get injured and good players underperform. There is an endless list of high dollar FAs and trades that fail. In other businesses, we expect certain failures as well. What gets people fired is the pursuit of questionable judgement because it’s expeditious or utilizes strategies with a low probability of success. The strategy going forward should not be based on the failure of the previous plan. It should be based on the merit of the plan in terms of achieving the goal of sustained success. The continued employment of Falvey and Levine should be a product of their ability to bring forth a plan to come back from the current failure. I would hope the Pohlad’s will ask for a concept plan at the end of the season. They should let them go if they do not believe in the plan and vision Falvey / Levine present. If they believe in the plan, they should allow them to manage that plan. If it fails, it would suggest they are unable to execute and they should be let go.

Whenever I present to a client’s senior management team or board of directors, I prepare for their likely questions and responses. In this case, I imagine going before the board and presenting a future state plan and concluding we should proceed with a focus on contending next year. Point 1 – We need to replace the entire starting pitching staff and a couple RPs. Here is my plan complete with FA acquisitions and trades. Their response …. Is it feasible to replace an entire SP staff to the point of building a contender? No, extremely low odds. How often is this feat accomplished and how much will it cost. Never, any team in this position retools in some form taking 1-5 years, longer in the case of many teams throughout history. $75-80M will BP additions. What are the odds of it working out? Very Very Small Will this plan facilitate sustained success? No. It will put a better product on the field next year at the expense of giving prospects playing time at the MLB level. We will also have to trade away prospects that would improve our future outlook. Point 2 – If all the acquisitions work out which has about a 15% probability, we would still need to resolve our SS issue so we need to spend another $25M. Then, we need to hope Donaldson stays healthy and productive, Kirilloff comes back from injury and Sano is more like the last month than the previous 4 months. Oh and we need Buxton to stay healthy and produce like he did in April. To which they respond … How long would or relative position change if you took a year to focus on development and could you put a reasonably good product on the field during the interim? We have about 10 SPs that are ready or could be by ready for the ML level by 2023. By 2023 we could field 4-5 solid SPs. Then, we could add a top of the rotation SP in 2023. We could trade Donaldson and transition Miranda in 2022. We would take a hit on his salary but it would position us to sign a top SP and retain Buxton. We have BP prospects and some SPs that could be used to solidify a very good BO by 2023. It is also likely Martin Lewis will be ready by 2023 but we would need at least one roster spot if not two to get them transitioned. We could also trade Arraez for a SS that will be ready by 2023 if we are not confident in Lewis / Martin at SS. To which they respond … you believe the former strategy is better than the latter. Yes, we need to take a shot at contention even though the likelihood of success is extremely low. To which they responds … please get out of our board room, we will not be needing your services in the future.

I never once heard them say they could put a contending team on the field every year. What I heard them say was that their GOAL was sustained success. What else would you want them to say? For anyone who knows the game at all to interpret that statement to mean they will put a contender on the field every year is incredibly simplistic thinking. It's just not possible so why would anyone interpret their statement to be such a promise. Then, to lash out with "they should just trade everyone" is simply a crude approach. Teams going through many different variations of rebuilding and retooling. It makes exactly zero sense to trade off every established asset. They have a solid core. The BP already looks much improved and they have numerous MLB ready starting pitching prospects. Establishing those SPs by 2023 would put them in the enviable position of anchoring 3 or 4 spots in their rotation with prearb players. That positioning would allow them to sign a very top tier free agent SP which most mid market teams are never able to afford. Incompetence is pursuing a bad plan because it's expeditious.

Cabrera is an interesting case. He has only played 60 Milb games since turning 20. He had 102 games in Rookie ball from 17-19. He really has not had time to develop. How is his defense / range / arm?

Nick’s plan sounds a lot like the Padres plan except the Padres had a few advantages. They started with Tatis jr / Machado and Jake Cronenworth who will have about 4.5 WAR by the end of the season. Polanco has a shot to get to 4 WAR if he stays hot. We don’t have another position player that will get to 2.5 WAR. They also were bring back an established quality starter in Chris Paddack and they had the best and deepest farm system in the league to trade from. How is it working out for SD? Well, they are not going to make the playoffs. They are on pace for 86 wins provided they don’t continue to struggle like they have been. How about next year? My guess is 84-85 wins. Darvish at 35 has been bad the last couple months. He has given up 27 ER in his last 39 innings (9 games). Next year they have $20M invested in his age 36 season and what are the odds he is any good in his age 37 season. They do have Musgrove for 1 more season. They have Blake Snell for 2 more seasons but so what. He has basically been a 2 WAR pitcher for 5 seasons and he had one year where he was great. They gave up Luis Patino in the Snell trade. He has a 60FV SP and has already made it to the MLB level. He is a better prospect than Joe Ryan without a doubt. He has 3 plus pitches (FB 65) and plus command (60). While he may not ever have a season like Snell did when he was the Cy Young winner, he will probably be better than Snell over the course of his career. He might even be better than Snell next year and they have him for the next 6 years. Ray’s also got Mejia who is a solid platoon catcher (basically Jeffers) and they also got Cole Wilcox who was 20 at the time of the trade. He has a 2.03 ERA. Granted, he is still in A ball but this kind of long-term approach. Lots of people are going to be disappointed when the Twins don’t follow a San Diego type strategy. I hope they take 2022 to develop the myriad of MLB and near MLB ready pitchers. Give them time at the MLB level instead of following a strategy likely to produce mediocrity. So, many here like to write the FO will demonstrate incompetence if they don’t do all of these things. I disagree. Hopefully, they have the critical thinking skills to pursue an approach that has the best chance of building sustained success and that approach is not consistent with a strategy that pursues the illusion of being a serious WS contender next year and failing to develop our prospects at the MLB level..

Waaaaaaay too early to jump to to a conclusion. He is 23 and we lost a season of development last year. We have seen them add velo with other guys. A couple MPH could make a big difference and this guy has the frame and athleticism. Refining the changeup for a 3rd pitch would be big and he has plus control. Let's not write the guy off top the BP just yet. The negativity around here is a real downer.

The most important individual performance in August IMO was Ober establishing his place in rotation for next year. However, the BP in aggregate is looking like we have added some pieces that will help next year. Minaya looks to be part of the future. Garza could do the same with a strong performance the remainder of the season and Griffin Jax will probably end up as part of the BP solution. Coulumbe is serviceable too. Alcala has what it takes and he seems to be putting it together. Get Rodgers back with Alcala performing the way he has recently, put Gant in the BP, replace Colome with a reliable late inning guy and along with these new additions we have reason to be optimistic about the BP next year. Rodgers / FA / Duffey / Alcala / Minaya / Gant / Thielbar / Garza Jr. A LH free agent would be ideal or a RH free agent, Gant starts the year in rotation if he does well the rest of the year. Jax is a depth piece in the rotation or replaces Garza.

While it's too early to tell I did not like the type of gamble they took with Cavaco at 13 in the 1st round. Two of the next 3 picks from that draft are looking very good. Bryson Stott is the Phillies number 2 prospect and doing well at AA. The guy I would have liked to draft is Corbin Carroll who was taken 3 picks later. He is a CF with 70 speed, great defender. He is the Dbacks #2 prospect with a 60FV. Quinn Priester #18 pick is 20 years old doing very well at A+ / 50FV. George Kirby was the #20 pick. He is 23 playing at AAA. He has a plus FB and plus command. They got cute with this pick when there were a number of good options. Hated this pick. I would love to have Carroll, Stott or Kirby.

Eaton is a replacement level player so how is he an example of a great addition. Abreau was an extension, NOT an addition. How is Gonzales an example of a good sign? He was below replacement level? Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal were two years ago. Hendricks and Lynn were this year. So, yes they made a couple good signings in successive years. They did not even remotely close to what you are suggesting in a given year. Actually, no team outside the top 10 revenue markets have ever done anything close to what you are suggesting and I doubt even the top revenue teams have ever added the number of impact players you are suggesting in a given year. You do understand there are 30 other teams competing for these players, right?

They don’t need to blow it up. They need to use 2022 to get pitchers established. It won’t be pretty at times but they could put a very good product on the field in 2023 if they use this next year to develop pitchers. This includes testing guys like Jax in the BP. Let’s assume for just a moment Ober is solid going forward. They need two of Balazovic / Ryan / Duran / Canterino / SWR / Enlow / Winder to get established in 2022. That’s a relatively modest expectation. Maeda is back in 2023. Establishing all these pitchers will leave plenty in the budget to go sign a very good SP, perhaps Jose Berrios. Sign Buxton and get Kirilloff back and healthy in 2022. Make the transition from Donaldson to Miranda in 2022. Some of the starting pitching prospects fine their way to the BP in 2022. Martin joins the big league club in 2022 and Lewis in 2023. We would still have enough payroll flexibility to add one more impact FA as a result of developing SP and pieces. We could also trade Arraez for a SS or pitching. BTW ... This team is over 500 this month against a very tough schedule without Buxton / Kirilloff and "no pitching". Get those guys back and hopefully some production from Larnach with Jake Cave removed and we have a pretty darn good offense.

I am think the question you should have asked was if the poster was suggesting the Twins trade away long-term assets similar to Sale/ Eaton like the WS did to initiate building the team they have now. Trading away a year and a couple months of Berrios is not at all like trading Sale and Eaton and whoever else they traded back then. It makes absolutely no sense to hold up the WS as an example and ignore they got here via a rebuild that took a few years. They spent very little in free agency during those years. Sode note: I believe the Twins were at roughly $10M less than the WS in annual salary before they traded away Cruz / Berrios / Happ

For what it's worth ... I was listening to "The Front Office" on MLB network while driving this weekend. They were actually talking about the Met's failure this year and what they should do about it. Their solution was to do whatever it takes to get Theo Epstein including giving him partial ownership. Their back-up plan was to get Derek Falvey. They were emphatic to the point of suggesting they give him a 10 year $100M contract. Point being this is what impartial observers who have actually had a GM job think of Falvey.

There is a good chance he ends up in the BP, They just don't have a lot of options at the moment because of the crazy number of injuries on the MLB and Milb side.

I have seen him at SS and CF. Can't say I know the ratio.

Baseball teams and players for that matter have many critics. Everyone knows how to run the team better. How many of those critics have credentials for running a $300M business because that's what we are talking about. Many people here have highly skilled jobs that required a significant formal education and then several years of validating their skills to get said job. If someone (a hobbyist) came to their office and suggested these skilled people had no idea what they were doing, I am thinking the response would be less than cordial. Apparently, everyone has the skillset required to run a baseball organization because everyone seems to be qualified to evaluate baseball executives. They are so skilled that they can do this without even meeting them or reviewing the decision process that took place as we have few of these details.

When I checked on the Milb games last night I noticed Gibson-long threw 67 pitches, 56 for strikes. So, I watched the innings he pitched. You can't tell much given the camera work for A+ games but you could not miss that everything was around the zone. Anyone know what he has for velocity?

We are surprised that a relief pitcher has lost effectiveness?

John Gant has no relevance in a conversation about what strategies the team should employ in building a contender and sustainability. Once again you are talking about today and I am talking about the future. I have no quibble with "getting young arms innings". I am for it and I don't know how this was your takeaway from my earlier post which clearly focused on the fact many here insist on a strategy focused on winning the WS next year. The bickering about seeing certain players is just noise in the context of the big picture.

I was absolutely certain someone would bring up the current failure. So, I will state now what I considered including in the original post. The past and how we got here is completely irrelevant to what needs to be done and the best strategy to get there. The consistent sole focus on RIGHT NOW or next year has no place in strategic thinking. The things Tampa does would insight a riot here if done by the Twins.