Major League Ready

You misrepresented what I said. Show me where I said $200M in revenue. I said equal or less revenue than the Twins every time I asked. Why? Because revenue has changed substantially over the years and I was being fair to allow for a reasonable comparison as revenue changed. Also, because I knew someone would bring up the Cardinals, Giants or some other team with far more financial resource and that comparison makes no sense. To ask for examples form a subset of teams in a similar position is business analytics 101. I welcome your explanation as to why asking for meaningful examples it is exhausting or if you prefer why examples of teams with $60M or $90M or $180M of incremental revenue is an equivalent example.

What if Arizona is not in a position to sign a FA SP to a high AAV at the point. They likely spend that money elsewhere or they may reach a point where it makes sense to rebuild. Would you bet Arizona will be a contender two years from now if you have the deal you really want today? The scenario also requires Bumgarner to remain effective and healthy. My guess is his agent is well aware of how often free agent SPs fail after the 1st year. In case you missed it. I provided that history here last year and as they say "the truth is ugly".

I already stated with specificity what I would do. Even posted the roster with a budget. It jsut so happens that with the exception of Wheeler and a LH RP, the team has done exactly what I planned. Here is what I wont do. I won't complain because they did not sign Cole or Strassburg. Only the top couple markets had the capacity to land those two players land Strassburg was not leaving his team with that kind of offer on the table. Anyone who pays any attention to the national media heard the same message. I won't complain because they were unable to land the one guy I thought was both a real upgrade and within the financial parameters the Team could absorb. The premise that family is an important consideration in where someone elects to live is not foreign to me. I won't complain about Bumgarner because I did not believe he still had the ability to dominate in the playoffs. I might be wrong but several other teams including his current and both LA teams agreed. I won't suggest they are unwilling to spend as much as SLC that grossed $480M more than the Twins. I will appreciate that the Twins actually spent $230M more of their available revenue. (Rev-Op Cost) I won't complain they have not made a trade for two reasons. One, I can't think of a single SP that plays for a team I believe would make such a trade. Two, teams generally look to the trade market after FA options have been exhausted. We are not there yet. I finally, I won't complain until the off-season is over. You would think last year would have been a lesson.

No. The buyout is only good (used) if you don't feel he was worth the amount of the option year. There is some merit to what you say in that the agreed to rate is $5M even if he was so great as to merit a higher contract in 2021.

You know ... what I would love to see is someone concede that the Bull&^%$ about the Twins unwillingness defies any logic. The unwillingness to spend requires the absence of logic. At least every now and then Mike admits it's just a product of fanaticism. I keep bringing up the prospects they have not traded because you and others insist other teams WOULD trade them. When I ask for examples of top 20 prospects they have traded in these success stories the topic is ignored. It might even makes sense to use that capital but the hole song and dance about the success of others was a product of trading elite prospects is not based on solid examples. BTW . I don't need any lessons on basing conclusion on facts. You either did not check the facts when you claimed the Twins were less willing to spend because I don't believe you fail to understand the $480M additional revenue produced by the Cards constituted an incremental ability as opposed to a difference in willingness.

It’s impossible to have a discussion if you are unwilling to apply any objectivity. Kelly had been up and down over the course of 3 years. He was a decent player but there is no way he ever was an equivalent prospect to Lewis/Kiriloff. Brett Wallace may have been #27 with BA but that is one opinion and we know those rankings have lag. He never demonstrated Lewis or Kirilloff potential and he was traded by both the A’s and Blue Jays before he ever made it to the Majors and he had negative WAR for his career. We are just going to have to disagree that we don’t have a prospect other than our top 2 that are equivalent to Brett freaking Wallace, I am sorry. Let’s keep in mind the premise being debated here in general is what the twins are willing or unwilling to pay or give up in the form of prospects. Many here are calling for a Lewis or Kirilloff plus a couple other top prospects, perhaps even Balazovic. Let’s not pretend that is the same kind of sacrifice as trading a couple decent prospects for Goldschmidt. You guys are far too baseball savvy to say this with a straight face. It’s convenient. In terms of their WILLINGNESS to pay. I think many of you confuse willingness with ability. Since the Twins moved in Target Field they have averaged 233.67M in revenue and an average payroll of $109.4. The Cardinals have averaged $282M in revenue and $137.5M in payroll. In other words, they have average $48M more in revenue and 28M more in payroll. A reasonable measure of willingness to spend would be the percentage of revenue after operating expenses. By this measure, the Twins have been willing to spend $20M per year more than the Cardinals. I am not going to suggest you don’t understand the difference between able and willing in this context. Coincidentally, you are unwilling to see the difference. The Twins generated 438M less in revenue over 9 years. Therefore, they were unable to match their spending not unwilling. They actually spent a higher percentage of dollars available for payroll (Rev-Operating Cost) Therefore, the the Twins actually spent more aggressively than the Cardinals.

I understand the Cardinals have done some things the twins have not but let’s be more specific than they have acquired or extended certain players. I honestly don't know of any top 25 type prospects the Cardinals have traded away. Have they traded this type of prospect? I ask because there is a big difference between trading depth for Goldsmith vs trading away Lewis or Kirilloff. If not, what you are saying is that they have been willing to trade depth and spend more on free agents and/or extensions. Is this fair?

I thought we were talking about free agent acquisitions. You can't say the Twins largest contract is Santana If we are talking about extensions. Also, while we were not specifically about SPs, that has been the focal point so if you want to hold up the Cardinals as an example, they have gone their once in recent history and traded away the player the next year after he failed. As I said, I was not inclined to compare the Cards because they have substantially higher revenue than the Twins. Why don't we compare STL to the Yankees. How hard is it to figure out the spent more because they have more? You really have to bury your head deep to ignore the revenue difference.

I looked it up but did not respond. Partially because it does not make sense to expect the same practices from a team that was 7th in revenue with 356M in revenue as a team that was 22nd at 269M. However, I think the Twins compare quite well in terms of productivity of FAs. I have listed STLs transactions below. They did sign two 5 year deals. Dexter Fowler for $5/82.5M and Mike Leake for 5/80. Their FA transactions or perhaps I should say their largest FA contracts have had little impact on the team’s success. Fowler has produced 1.9 WAR total over his first 3 seasons. Leake had .4 bWAR in 2016 and was traded in 2017 and was not very good the remainder of the contract. Specifically where pitching is concerned. They did fairly well with Lohse on a modest contract. More recently, they signed to deals for high end RPs (Miller / Holland) that have been a complete bust. So, if the goal was total dollars spent, STL wins. If it’s productivity or impact we are measuring, I will take the Twins compare just fine. 2019 – Largest contract was Andrew Miller 2/25M. He produced -.4 bWAR 2018 – The biggest deal was actually Greg Holland for 1/14. 2017 – Dexter Fowler 5/82.5M. 2016 – Mike Leake. 5/80 2015 – There biggest deal was Pat Neishek 2/12.5M 2014 – Johnny Peralta for 4/53. He was very good the 1st year. Last 2 years were replacement level. 2014 – Carlos Beltran 3/34. Very good the 1st year / replacement level the last year 2013 - Kyle Lohse 3/33 2012 – Beltran 2/26

Atlanta and Houston’s largest FA signings back to 2012 are below. (from Spotrac) Houston’s biggest contract was Josh Reddick 4/52M. He produced 3.4 WAR in his first year and 1WAR each of the last 2 seasons. Brantley was quite productive last year but that deal is actually a much better example of getting production without signing the 5+ year deals. Will smith at 3/40 is Atlanta’s biggest contract in the past 5 years. Their largest was for BJ Upton 5/72.5M which was an absolutely horrible signing. So, holding up Atlanta as an example of building through high profile free agents also lacks substance. Houston 2020 – Dustin Garneau – 650K 2019 – Michael Brantley – 2/32 2018 – Joe Smith 2/15 2017 – Josh Reddick – 4/52M 2016 – Tony Sipp – 3/18M 2015 – Jed Lowrie – 3/23 2014 – Scott Feldman – 3/30M 2013 – Carlos Pena – 2.9M 2012 – Chris Snyder – 1/750K Atlanta 2020 – Will Smith - 3/40M 2019 – Josh Donaldson - 1/23M 2018 – Peter Burjos – 1/1M 2017 – Bortolo Colon – 1/12.5M 2016 – Mike Minor – 2/7.5M 2015 – Nick Markakis – 4/44M 2014 – Ervin Santana – 1/14/1M 2013 – BJ Upton – 5/72.5M Upton produced 1.9 WAR total over the 5 years. 2012 – Jack Wilson 1/1M BTW … The Atlanta area is quite nice with a very nice climate.

or sucks for 20 years like KC.

Because the union and the agents want to promote a culture of players accepting the highest bid.

Alex Anthopoulos was on Duquette's radio show and hinted he would be willing to go 4 years on Donaldson. I think he prefaced the statement that if the AAV came down a little he would be willing to go to 4 years. It was a few days ago and I don't remember exactly what he said but he did sound pretty determined to get him.

I don't think the problem is my definition when the player in question was traded for a 4th OFer and a #30 prospect. Frankly, when you complain in this way it just looks like you want to complain. Go ahead a make a suggestion and we can debate the relative viability of the team giving up the players as well as the relative impact on the team.

Perhaps I needed to clarify. I was not asking for names of people that had been elite in the past but SPs that were likely to be elite going forward. Based on the return was a 4th OFer and Texas #30 prospects, the Indians and more importantly the rest of the league obviously did not believe he would be an ace going forward. Now, would I have traded Kluber for Cave and a top 25-30 prospects? Sure but Kluber must have medical concerns that are very likely to make him a difference maker or the return would have been much higher.

It's also quite possible Wheeler told Boras he was taking the Philly offer regardless of other offers. Boras, not wanting it to get out that the Twins made a higher offer, told the Twins to please not bother. This is quite plausible but we will never know so why is anyone sure what happened?

OK - remind me. Which elite SPs are realistically available? Birdwatch took the time to actually list the potential candidates which I appreciated because I was trying to come up with targets who played for teams willing to part with an elite SP. Throwing out names of players on teams that hope to contend is not much different than just saying go get an ace. BTW ... I don't have a good solution but I also don't insist they trade for a player like Cole when it's incredibly naive to think this team has the financial resource to put $324M in one player. I also don't insist they trade for players which make no sense for their current team to trade. What would you say if another team wanted Berrios or Rodgers for prospects? Give me two names of elite SPs that play for a team willing to trade them away?

What would you do. Don't just say trade for an elite SP. Name specific players.

One of the more insightful posts I have ever seen here! Betting on any of the SPs in Group 1 has a very low probability of success. Just about any plan would be better this route. Group two has real potential but every one of those teams is looking to add not subtract with perhaps the exception of Cleveland and they are not trading a SP to us. Anyone in group 3 is a good solution. Which team is going to trade one of them? Houston / NY / LA – Absolutely no way. Nationals after just going all-in to sign Strasburg? The Mets after extending DeGrom and making several moves to compete now. No way. That leaves us with the Reds after trading for Bauer and extending Gray on what is now a team friendly deal. I seriously doubt it. Aces are like quarterbacks in terms of their impact in the post season. It makes perfect sense for us all to want one badly. However, before we criticize their failure to execute such a trade we should inventory the options just as we should do realistically with FA. I would sure like to see some specific examples of solutions instead of complaining as if there are lots of options. Who specifically should we target and why would their team be willing to give them up?

Cleveland still has a lot of talent but they don't have the payroll room to keep them. They will likely fade over the next couple years and it will be a while before their farm system can supply replacements. There is an interesting contradiction here where our team is concerned and the CWS. When our guys were unproven we should have traded them for proven players because prospects are just prospects until they prove something. Yet, Chicago is presumed to be a surefire contender.

Would you complain if he just shout his mouth and gave it his best shot? MANY times reps who worked for me told me he or she thought they were going to land a huge deal. Guess what some of those did not come to fruition through no fault of said representative. I did not belittle them for telling me they were focused on or all-in on a deal.

Hopefully our front office will not make decisions "without hesitation" not knowing if it will be a mistake. Obviously nobody is sure about these decisions but the willy nilly approach is not exactly the kind of critical thinking that should not be the practice used for anything with this type of impact. Fans are not responsible for mistakes so it's pretty easy to say just go do something even if it's wrong. That kind of desperation is not exact;y consistent with good leadership. Better to avoid a mistake and find a better alternative.

No argument here. Those are harder to identify. I put together this information last year when posters kept insisting signing this type of free agent was essential to winning, taking the next step, etc. Of course, there was never any proof of concept supplied so I wanted to educate myself as to the relative success or production of these contracts. It also is not really relevant to the specific argument for signing a given type of free agent so I never went down the path of guys that were extended.

Really, Eric Hosmer 8/144 was worth 36M for -.1 WAR. Had -.4 WAR for 2019? Jd Martinez 5/120 – Was great in 2018 and dropped off considerably in 2019. Cruz produced 1 WAR more than Martinez for half the money. Which investment helps the team to construct a winner? Was Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 a good investment having produced 1.9 WAR in 2018 and 1.1 WAR in 2019? The guy we settle for (Odorizzi) produced 2.6 WAR in 2018 and 4.3 WAR in 2019. Charlie Morton produced double the WAR for 60% of the AAV. Cain – 5/80M – Had a great first year in 2018. Last year he produced 1.5 WAR. Would you want him for 3/51 for his age 34-36 season? I would not. Wade Davis – Was he worth 17M AAV for .8 WAR in 2018 and negative WAR in 2019? 2017 Cespedes produced 2.5 total WAR for 2017-19. Fowler has averaged exactly 1 WAR over 3 years. Jansen was great in 2017 and has produced a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons. David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and had we signed him he would likely be a detriment at 32M annually for the next 3 years. He most certainly would not have been “worth” the investment. The were several other big deals in 2017. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija. Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing ever since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR and an average cost of $28M per WAR. 2014 Robinson Cano 10/240/AAV 24 WAR 5.6 / 2.8 / 6.2 / 3.2 / 2.9 / .8 Cano produced quite well though his age 37 season. The problem was this was an absurd length. His remaining 4 year 96M remaining contract will be a serious impediment the next 4 yrs. Jacoby Ellsbury 7/153/AAV 21.1. One particular poster here lobbied very hard for him back when he was signed. Just over 1 WAR per year for 21M/year. Is that a good way to build a winner? WAR 3.5 / 1.1 / 1.7 / 1.6 / 0 / 0 / 0 Ave 1.13 Shin-Soo Choo 7/130/AAV 18.6. He averaged 1.5 WAR. / 2013 Josh Hamilton 5/125/AAV25. Now that was worth it. WAR 1.3 / 1.1 / .4 / 0 / 0 Ave .56 / 44.46M per 1WAR Melvin Upton 5/72.5/AAV 14.5 WAR -.9 / 0 / 1.5 / 1.3 / 0 Ave .38 / 38.16M per 1WAR 2012 Alber Pujlos 10/240/AAV 24 WAR 3.3 / .5 / 2.7 / 1.6 / .7 / -1.9 / -.2 / -.4 Ave .79 / 28.7M per 1WAR and they still have two years / 59M remaining, likely at replacement level. Prince Fielder 9/214/AAV 23.77 WAR 5.0 / 2.7 / -.4 / 2.0 / .7 / -1.9 / 0 / 0 / 0 Ave .95 / 26.75M per 1WAR CJ Wilson 5/77.5/AAV 15.5 WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / .7 / 1.5 / 0 / Ave 1.52 / 10.19.75M per 1WAR Failures on the scale Pujlos, Hamilton and Fielder would sink our team for several years. So, I can’t agree with your position they are worth whatever the market pays.

What about the Giants. Three WS wins in the past 10 years and 4th overall in revenue. Astros are doing quite well too. Got to include the Cubs too. They have the 5th most revenue. The Cubs are just suffering the effects of 3 big contracts producing very little which is enough to nullify much of their revenue advantage. However, you have an undeniable point. The revenue gap has grown wide between the top and the bottom. The big market teams have gotten smarter. Billy Beane was on Jim Duquette's show a few days ago talking about how all the teams value assets the same now. In the past, big market teams traded away prospects for proven talent. The premium paid for the immediate production ended up favoring the teams trading for prospects. Obviously, the big market teams are placing a greater premium on prospects. The Dodgers are a great example (Duquette did not use this example). Going back a few years they acquired several proven players and had a massive payroll. That produced mediocre teams. Their most productive players are homegrown now. The biggest FA expenditure since Andrew Friedman took over was Kenley Jansen and they don't trade top prospects.