Major League Ready

If we win our share of WS that equates to winning once every 30 years. The point of view of a world series winner or bust basically assures you will be disappointed most of the time. To each his own but I refuse to take such a stance on something that is supposed to be entertainment. Perhaps more to the point, approaching roster management with a singular focus on winning the WS next year is incredibly incompetent. Therefore, if you expect the team to be completely focused on the near term, the FO is going to disappointed you. I should add that the biggest cluster I ever encountered professionally were management teams that tried to fix things too quickly or did not build a sustainable model. This is why you don't see teams signing or trading for 4 SPs. If it were a reasonable expectation for bottom teams to win the WS the year following 90 or 100 losses we would have vast swings in win records every year.

I have ZERO problem with them trading Wade. We were very deep in corner OFers, especially LH. Frankly, he looked like a AAAA player to me. His only above average skill was plate discipline. He looked to have well below average power. Fangraphs rated him 30/35. He was not fast enough to play CF and he has a weak arm. We will see if he continues to hit HRs at this rate but count me surprised and skeptical that the league won’t adapt. I believe the Twins thought highly of Baddoo. They (like me) just did not believe a team would take him and roster him for a year or that he would perform this well thrown into at the MLB level. Numerous highly regarded prospects did not perform well this year after missing last year. Others were unaffected. Point being I doubt they did not believe in his talent. They just did not believe a team would take him. The trades that bug me is Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa. I don’t recall anyone here having a problem with us trading away a 19 year old A-ball pitcher and I thought little of it as well. 3 ½ years later, and the knowledge that Cave did not amount to much, this one bothers me because we traded away a pitcher with a high ceiling for a tweener. Ynoa was traded for a rental. Gil / Ynoa / Ober would be a nice start to building a great rotation. There are a couple lessons here. One of them is that we will still be following the team when these deals that take 3 or 4 years impact the ML club come to fruition.

I was going to login to the game thread last night for the sole purpose of saying that umpire sucked! Jax made a couple of perfect pitches and the ump screwed him. Then, he called a couple on our guys that were 4 inches outside the zone.

We have had pluses and minuses just like most teams. We got Odorizzi for nothing. The one that looks like a pretty big negative at the moment is Luis Gil. He looks legit. Man, I would like to have him here next year. It happens, Was Chicago's FO monumentally incompetent when they traded away Tatis Jr. or is it part of the risk of trading prospects away?

Me too. I am referring to not having a clue if he is adequate at SS because I have seen very little of him at SS. The Twin's staff on the other hand have been evaluating him for years and hundreds of games. I would hope they have seen him enough at SS in the minors and that they have the evaluation skills to determine if he is adequate to play SS as a utility player. I think a lot of people are complaining because they want to see him play SS not because it's necessary to determine if he can play back-up SS.

Thanks Seth. Do you think he has enough bat to be an every day player? That versatility would make for a great bench player.

This discussion just illustrates that this roster could go in a lot of different directions. It will be interesting to see how many Donaldson rumors pop up this fall. That will give us an idea if they are looking to move him. Sign Buxton and trade Donaldson is #1 and #2 this off-season for me. I don't think trading Donaldson is key to making next year's team better but it would help build a winner if the corresponding moves are good.

How is Spencer Steer defensively at 3B. Does he have a chance to be an everyday 3B or is his future a utility guy? Where have they been playing Martin?

I agree Lewis could end up at 3B. However, if we lose Buxton, Lewis will be most valuable in CF. I do not agree on trading Miranda and I don't believe there is anyway the FO deals him. We are thin at 3B as it is. Donaldson has reached the point in his career that his utility at 3B and his ability to stay on the field is declining. I share your concern given Miranda's sudden breakthrough. However, he has sustained it at 2 levels. More importantly, Miranda's potential impact is huge and we would feel that impact for several years. Would the Ray's trade Miranda. VERY unlikely! Arraez is a valuable player and he is fun to watch. I don't really want to trade him but he is viable as an every day 2B. My thinking is that he would have his maximum value in that role. Therefore, either Arraez or Polanco would bring back greater value than they provide under our current roster construction. Of course, you have to find the right deal but the hope is to get a SS or pitching and Martin or Lewis eventually take the Arraez role. They can sign a free agent until that happens or give Gordon or Palacios a shot in 2022 until Martin / Lewis are ready.

There is a famous lyric ... there is none so blind as those who will not see. The facts (stats) show clearly that Rosario is a replacement level player this year producing well below average players. Holding him up as a solution or someone who would have made any difference this year is an absolute refusal to acknowledge the brutally obvious. Past performance is a nice memory but it has no function today! I also found no entertainment in watching the horrible ABs, defensive lapses, and base running errors. Here is the good news. His relative performance / value will be illustrated by the offers he receives when he is available to every team in the league.

True. It's also true that ditching a veteran that has been an elite player will not be looked upon favorably when we try to sign free agents in the future. They are still looking for the next $10M payday and being dumped to the bench does not help their cause for next year. You may think it's OK to discard them but it will make a poor impression among their piers. Fans can be this short-sighted. GMs need to protect the team's image with players.

Yes he is but stating emphatically that they lose 100 games with him at SS is an absurd statement given they won 100 games in 2019 with him at SS. I really want a better SS solution too but let's not get carried away with statements like they lose 100 games with him at SS.!

IMO, any team trading Miranda and keeping Donaldson is a big mistake, especially a team with the Twins scenario in terms of having numerous pitching prospects to get established. It's an even bigger mistake for a small or mid-market team. I think our problem is we have 2 very good 2B. Trade one of them if the value back is there. BTW, it probably won't be a similar value established MLB player. The team that trades for Arraez or Polanco is not looking to give up high end major league talent. It's possible but unlikely. Tampa is really good at get guys on the brink of the big leagues or guys that have just broke in but not gotten established. I would trade one of Arreaz / Polanco (probably Arraez) AND Donaldson. It could backfire. Miranda could fail at this level but worst case scenario we spend whatever part of Donaldson's salary we off-load on a SS or pitching.

I have no real data but it seems like most years there are 3-5 really standout draft prospects. There are 4 really horrible teams this year and I would rather have a little bit worse draft position than to be in their position in terms of likelihood to compete anytime soon. No doubt we have some holes to fill but replace Cave and whoever is playing CF with Buxton and Kirilloff and we have a good offense. Pitching is not going to get great overnight but one good free agent signing and a couple of prospects panning out for once and we look good for the next several years.

Sure hope he continues to impress. He has been a bright spot this year.

I watched the Saints game instead of the Twins to watch Ryan. He was impressive. Very good command of his FB. He did not use his off-speed stuff much and when he did the command was not great. Hopefully, the Twins staff can help him dial in his other offerings. He is going to be good but he could be very good if he sharpens his other pitches.

How so? Estimating Rodgers / Buxton / Garver / Duffy and Arraez at a total of $22.5M the Twins would have an $86M payroll. This assumes league minimum is raised to $650K, Simmons is replaced by a league minimum player and Colome is bought out.

The Tigers have 9 players with contracts or that are in arbitration. The total for those 9 players is just a touch over $50M. The rest of their players are prearb so roughly another $10M. Therefore, their entire 2022 payroll is roughly $60M. Their ability to add payroll won't dictate their interest in adding any given free agent.

You are using a number for Maeda which you know is most likely wrong and you ignored there are about 15 slots to fill the roster beyond the handful of contract and pre-arb players. That's why I included an estimate. You are not alone, many people look at various websites and find a number that is not inclusive of all the cost and then use it as a baseline. This is going to produce a very poor estimate. What will they do? IDK. That's why I said it depends on how they balance following the best long-term strategy. I think a lot of fans will probably be disappointed because I doubt they have the singular focus on 2022 that some fans are going to have. It's also very difficult to predict some of the variables. Can they get a Buxton extension done and can they find a trade partner for Donaldson. The landscape also changes if they believe as I do that Arraez does not fit well on this roster. Trading him could also change the 2022 and 2023 plan depending on the return. Any attempt to predict what they will do or even should do at this moment is not exactly an educated forecast.

Rosario may have been my favorite Twin for a period of time. He made a big impression on me in the AFL Championship game. If my memory is correct, he went 4-5 with 2HR, a triple and double and smoked a ball on a line to the RF for the only out he made. Yes, somehow he got 1 MVP pt in 2019 and 1% of the MVP votes in 2020 for his 800 OPS is about average for a corner OFer. I suspect some MN writers had a few votes. He was fantastic the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Pitchers adjusted and he simply could not or would not apply any discipline in his plate appearances. The reality after the league made this adjustment, from July 1, 2018 until he was let go, Rosario produced 2.2 WAR in almost 1100 PAs. Kepler produced 7 WAR in that period and Polanco 6.2. If you don’t like WAR, Rosario’s wRC+ was 97. Not horrible put 10 pts under the average corner OFer. His OPS was 760. This year he produced .3 WAR and a wRC+ of 84. He went from mediocre to bad. These numbers are fact so I am going to go with that as reality. Unless you can explain how a near replacement level player would have made a difference, going back to the why didn’t we keep Eddie Rosario well shows an unwillingness to accept the reality of the player he has become.

If you want to fantasize about players that were once good, let's bring back Puckett. Eddie Rosario was mediocre 2018-2020 and replacement level in 2021. To come here and suggest it was a mistake to let him go or that he would have been smart to retain a guy playing at replacement level for is living in the past with no clue of the current reality. Refsnyder and Garlick were both substantially better for $9M less. What are the odds you get to you 5th level of depth for one position?

Assuming league minimum goes up to $650K which might be light, they would be at roughly $85M if they filled all the holes with league minimum players. That gives them roughly $45M to get back to 2021 payroll level. Trading Donaldson would give them $66M assuming a team would take all his salary which is not likely. If you spend $30M on a SP you have lets call it $30-36M to spend between a SS / BP and extending Buxton. Kenta Maeda 9,000,000 Bailey Ober 650,000 Joe Ryan 650,000 Griffin Jax 650,000 Charlie Barnes 650,000 Josh Winder Matt Canterino Jhoan Dyran Blayne Enlow Relief Pitchers Taylor Rogers 8,000,000 Tyler Duffey 3,300,000 Jorge Alcala 650,000 Caleb Thielbar 650,000 Juan Minaya 650,000 John Gant 650,000 Edgar Garcia 650,000 Randy Dobnak 800,000 Ralph Garza Drew Strotman Jovanni Moran Alex Colome (buyout) Catchers Mitch Garver 2,700,000 Ryan Jeffers 650,000 Ben Rortvedt Infielders Miguel Sano 9,250,000 Jorge Polanco 5,500,000 Josh Donaldson 21,750,000 SS 650,000 Luis Arraez 1,500,000 Nick Gordon 650,000 Outfielders Max Kepler 6,750,000 Byron Buxton 7,000,000 Trevor Larnach 650,000 Alex Kirilloff 650,000 Rob Refsneider 650,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 85,300,000

You might be right but I don't believe Donaldson is a big draw. for a number or reasons. I also believe the overall appeal of the team / product is much more important. That starts with winning but guys like Buxton that do amazing things has bread appeal. Donaldson in his prime had some of that appeal but he is just a good player now. If Miranda came up and continued to perform, he might have more appeal than Donaldson. A rookie making a splash is exciting for fans. Moving Donaldson allows them to extend Buxton and add a high-end starting pitcher. That's the best way to put butts in seats IMO and it's improves the teams chances for sustained success. They could even sign a SP and a SS and extend Buxton if they did not have to eat much of Donaldson's contract but I doubt that is the case.

Depends on if the strategy is approached from the perspective of contending next year or is the approach based on the best strategy for building a contender without a singular focus on next year. IMO, the best way to get back to contention is a product of giving the numerous SP prospects time at the ML level. We can’t do that by filling rotation slots with free agents. Building through free agency is also a poor strategy in general for a mid-market team. I also believe they could put a very good rotation together by signing one very good free agent SP and filling the rest of the rotation with Maeda / Ober / Ryan / Winder / Jax / Barnes to start the season and eventually getting to Balazovic / Duran / Canterino and Enlow. By 2023 a couple of these guys will end up in the BOP and the rotation will be a product of a competition for the remaining spots. Another transition needs to take place at 3B. Donaldson needs to be moved this off-season or could also be moved at the deadline with Miranda taking over at 3B. Of course, SS needs to be addressed. Does not matter if it’s free agency or a trade if Donaldson is moved. I like the idea of trading Arraez for a SS but a team doing that is not trading an established ML SS. Ideally we would find a SS that is blocked at the ML level. Trading for Arreaz for a ML ready SS potentially resolves the problem for the next several years while maintaining payroll room for a final piece.

Show me another corner OFer or 1B with equivalent AA stats that skipped AAA. You also failed to leave out the fact that both Kirilloff and Larnach were brought up before they were completely ready because of injuries. Does service time play into it? Sure. It just amazes me fans want them to ignore service time How would it be competent to sacrifice a year of control in a players prime for a couple weeks when they are unproven and struggling?