Major League Ready

I should have elaborated. My thought is this will make for some interesting maneuvering both in terms of how they are filled, when they are filled and how that works out for managing the 40 man. Here is my guess as to how they are filled. Jake Odorizzi – Hopefully does well and is resigned Nelson Cruz – Sano moves from 1B to DH / Kirilloff takes 1B Marwin Gonzalez – Internally but who IDK? There are a few possibilities. Homer Bailey - ??? Romo – Replaced internally Alex Avilia – Replaced by Jeffers Rich Hill - ??? Let’s hope at least one of Bailey / Hill is replaced internally. Tyler Clippard – Replaced Internally or I could see signing a LH RP next year.

8 Players are coming off the 26 man at the end of next season. Jake Odorizzi Nelson Cruz Marwin Gonzalez Homer Bailey Romo Alex Avilia Rich Hill Tyler Clippard There are also some very expendable players on the 40 man. Plus, it's quite likely a couple players get traded. I don't see a big problem on the horizon.

This medium makes it easy for arguments to change forms somewhat. I guess my argument should have been nobody cares if you trade Cave, Wade, Raley or probably even Rooker. I am going to go out on a limb and say most of us who want to preserve prospects don’t care about them. I guess I ignored the argument of trading the surplus. Because I just don’t believe depth can be traded for good starting pitching unless that SP has a big contract. Cave / Wade Raley or even Rooker or even all of them together does not land a front of the rotation SP. You mentioned their relative value in your post so why would you conclude they could be traded for good pitching? We have two OF prospects (Kirilloff / Larnach) who will make a difference in acquiring someone better than Berrios. IDK but I think it makes a lot of sense to move Sano to DH when Cruz departs and Kirilloff takes 1B. He is not even an average defender at a corner OF spot as I understand it. Perhaps I am wrong but this seems to makes sense. If this is true, we really have one really good OF prospect (Larnach) to take Rosario's place. The timing should be perfect for him to come up next year and prove he is Rosario’s replacement. I think Wade & Raley have very little value. Cave has some value and Rooker will need to prove he can make enough contact at the MLB level before he has any real value. I am pretty sure all of us prospect hoarders would trade depth for a Berrios + level SP. It’s the other teams that won’t go along with that scenario.

I am not saying it's not OK to trade, especially outside the top 5 in this specific case. What I am saying is the facts are quite clear in terms of how teams are valuing prospects. Listen to the Front Office on MLB Radio and this topic comes up fairly often. I included a synopsis of the ALL the playoff teams with top farm systems. I don't have Kasten and Friedman's credentials so my opinion does not matter. Their direction however is quite clear. We can also look at Atlanta. They have a loaded system and they are not trading top prospects. Feel free to point out examples of them trading top prospects. Obviously, this could change tomorrow. Tampa Bay's roster has numerous players acquired as prospects. They have valued prospects to the point of trading established players to load their system. Is this true or is this untrue in terms of what these teams have done of late? Never mind my opinion. What have these team's indicated through their actions.

The old front office was justifiably ridiculed for not recognizing and applying modern metrics. As teams hired leadership with a more sophisticated skill set, prospect valuation and practices changed. Most teams are more inclined to hold onto prospects as compared to a decade or two ago. They have assessed the relative merit / success of pushing the chips in and have adopted new practices. The two men at the top of the Dodgers organization (Stan Kasten / Andrew Friedman) are among the most highly respected executives in sports. Their actions have made their strategy where prospects are concerned it quite clear. Their top 10producers in terms of WAR from last year’s 106 win consisted of 6 drafted players, 3 Intl draft and one that was traded for as a prospect. Not a single FA or player that was traded for after becoming established. They have done a 180 from their practices of a decade ago. The Braves have a more depth than the Twins at least in terms of elite prospects. Yet, they have made no such trades. Arizona has 20 40+ prospects (Twins have 15). They had the 6th most wins in the NL last year. Obviously, they are close and have chosen to retain their prospects. Teams are much less inclined to trade prospects than many fans. I would suggest this is a product teams wanting sustained success and many fans wanting to go all-in for the present. Looking at last year’s playoff rosters it might also have to do with recent outcomes of these trades. Looking at the top 88 players from 2019 playoff teams in terms of WAR. 28 were Drafted (32%) 8 were Intl players (9%) 21 were traded for as prospects. (24%) 21 were free agents (24%) 10 were traded for as established players (11%) This would indicate trading prospects for established players has favored the team getting prospects. It’s not exactly rock solid proof but the indication is clear.

Last year he had a 4.55 FIP 1.318 WHP and 6.9 SO/9. Does not sound like a front of the rotation guy to me. What am I missing?

The obvious answer is we need someone that can go toe to toe with Cole/Severino and/or Verlander/Greinke. The better question might be is there a SP realistically available right now that can go toe to toe with them. Personally, I am hoping for Charlie Morton at the trade deadline.

Seth, Do you believe the 26th roster spot will be used at least in part for auditions? Sano to DH after 2020 seems to be the logical path with Kirilloff or Rooker taking over at 1B. Sure would be nice if we got a look at them this year. Same could be true with Larnach depending on how Rosario looks the first couple months of the season. What do you think? Are these guys more likely to get an audition with the expanded roster?

Don't get me wrong ... That's a very fair point. The optimist in me wants to hope that Buxton could become the Superstar he was projected to be. I want to believe Kepler or Sano could go the way of Christian Yehlich instead of the other way. Maybe Dubnak could shock us all and be our guy that came out of nowhere or Graterol steps up big. Hey, I know it's wishful thinking but it's fun to think it could happen. We had a lot of unknowns turn out pretty well last year. How about a continuation of that trend? As long as I am wishing big, how about Donaldson does an Adrian Beltre impersonation the next 4 years and delivers 20 WAR for his age 34-37 seasons.

Fair enough on Greinke but you guys sure do bend the narrative to your liking. We are talking about the specifics of this year's market. The argument was the Twins failed because they refused to pay the premium required. Mike could not refute the point that none of the other teams that were in on Wheeler / Bumgarner were willing to pay the premium associated with those players. This specificity allows us to judge our FO vs all of the other FOs involved. Let's be clear. All of the other teams involved concluded Wheeler and Bumgarner DID NOT merit the premium required to get them away from their preferred team. Rather than concede this point Mike changed the argument to what about deadline trades.

No. You are talking about multiple years. I am talking about last year. The market is different ever year. The asking price was apparently high enough last year than none of the actual playoff ("successful") teams were willing to trade for a SP. Fact or fiction? They signed not one but two BP arms and I don't think they needed any help with position players. Also last year was the first year in a very long time where the Twins were at least somewhat legit contenders. You may count the year they crept into the 2nd wildcard spot with a team that really was never a contender but I do not.

Exactly which successful teams dealt for "impact" SPs last year at the deadline? Each year has a unique set of circumstances so you can compare just any year. I guess we could Stroman as an impact SP but the Mets are hardly an example of success. One 90 win (exactly 90) season in the past decade with 2 other seasons over 500. Obviously, Cole / Strassburg and Ryu were not going to be traded so they don't count but none of the playoff teams were willing to pay the price necessary to get Wheeler/Madbum or any other impact SP.

There really were not 5. Cole and Stassburg were not realistic. Wheeler/Bumgarner - That is a very naive view IMO. Convince Wheeler family ties don't matter? Convince Bumgarner his desire for a horse ranch in Arizona is silly? The only option in the Wheeler/Bumgarner cases was a massive over pay. What is absolutely crystal clear is that NO OTHER MLB front office was willing to pay the premium required. Therefore, you are assuming to have a superior understanding of how to build a MLB team, not only as compared to the twins FO but also every other team in on Wheeler/Bumgarner. Good for you! Seems I heard the exact same rhetoric regarding elite FA RPs last year. The FO was either stupid or just cheap from not recognizing what a no-brainer it was to sign Familia / Kimbrel / Miller / Robertson / Herrera / etc.

We just don't agree on RYU. Where Wheeler and MadBum are concerned, there were numerous other teams interested in them. Any of them could have followed your suggested strategy. None of them did. Not a single one. This is not theoretical. We know none of the other teams were willing to apply your strategy. Are you asserting a superior decision making ability to all of these GMs because the facts are quite clear here. None of them were willing to make the overpay you suggest or those offers/amounts still did not get the job done. BTW ... If you are interested in an outside perspective, Mark Polisuk answered two related questions in his chat yesterday. https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-6742.html

Cole and Srassburg were economic reality. Wheeler and Badbum had very strong preferences to be with a specific team. Your positioning suggests they just did not want to come to Minnesota. There were numerous other teams interested in Wheeler/Madbum. Any of those teams could have offered a massive overpay. They did not. Do you suppose fans have a superior grasp of what’s best for the teams as compared to all of the GMs who did not act? They made a judgment call on Ryu which is very hard to criticize if any critical thought is applied. Obviously, The Dodgers felt the money could be invested more productively elsewhere. Kasten and Freidman have stellar reputations. Do Twins fans know better than them too? Before you condemn, consider the only playoff teams from last year that did not go backwards were the Yankees and the possibly the Braves. Houston lost almost 13 WAR and replaced it with very little. Milwaukee lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz / Gonzales and Thames. Their only significant addition has been Garcia. TB lost Garcia and D’Arnaud and added literally nobody. Oakland lost Anderson / Roark and Bailey while adding nobody. STLs net add is Michael Wacha for 1/3M. Washington lost Rondon and replaced him with 7 players who add up to the same salary Rendon received. Basically, the opposite philosophy you are asserting. One team basically was able to achieve what you are asserting should be expected and that team did it based mostly on financial advantage. Pretty easy to expect perfection. Another thing all together to achieve it.

What would you have done differently? Outbid the top revenue team in league for Cole? Given an 8th year to Stassburg which still might not been enough to get him away from the Nats? Massive overpay for Wheeler to get him to ignore family values Massive overpay for Madbum to compensate him for his preference to be in Arizona. Outbid the Jays 4/80 bid for a 33 y/o with a significant history of injury. Which one sounds like the most realistic or best option for a below average revenue team?

You are using 6 FTEs. They only get paid MLB compensation when they are on the 26 man roster. We are in real trouble if we have 6 guys out on average for the entire season. The cost for MiLB replacements is more like $1M. I suppose it could be a little more if we have another Arreaz arise but the FO would be happy with that scenario!

I think that's a fair take. As a matter of fact, I see almost exactly the same scenario. Where we differ is that while I would have been OK with them signing Ryu but I also have zero problem with them passing on a giving a 33 y/o SP a 4 year/80M contract with his injury history. There was a segment on MLB TV where the topic was "over/under" and they asked the panelists to predict if Ryu would start +/- 80 games over the duration of his 4 year contract. All of them said under. Hard to get angry about not making a desperate move with such a high likelihood of failure. I would rather spend the money on Donaldson in spite of our need for starting pitching.

Why would a player pass on the Twins because they had a perception the Twins have been cheap in the past If the Twins have the high offer and the player was only interested in the high offer? Sorry, your bid was the highest but I won't play for you because I don't think you have bid aggressively with other FAs?

Take a look at the ranking parameters. That might help and I am pretty sure all-stars (Berrios / Polanco) have proven themselves. This type of assessment involves a fair amount of speculation but Nick has done a nice job of laying out how he came to these rankings. The fact that's it's not an exact science makes for interesting debate.

$7M for Bailey brings it to 70.8. I rounded to $71M. Read nothing more into my post than someone said a team can't be built without the use of free agency & trades. I just found that an odd position when more than half of next years 26 man roster is a product of free agent signings and trades.

The Twins roster presently has 10 players acquired through free agency and 4 through trades. So, more than half the roster is a product of free agency and trades. $71M in payroll is committed to free agents next year. Does this sound like a team built totally from within?

That has nothing to do with his point. If your company paid you $200M, you would exercise the freedom that is a product of that type of wealth regardless of how much or how little the company was making.

If it makes you feel any better … The only playoff team from last year that improved significantly was the Yankees. It would not be unreasonable to say MN had the 2nd best off-season so far of last year’s playoff teams. Houston lost Cole and has done nothing else. Washington lost Rendon and added players that would be considered dumpster dives with perhaps the exception of Will Harris (3/24) Dodgers lost Ryu / Hill and added Treinen. Brewers lost Grandal / Moose / Pomeranz and added Garcia Tampa lost Garcia / D’Arnaud and added nobody Oakland lost Roark / Bailey You could make a case Atlanta had a better off-season. The lost Kuechel / Teheran and replaced them with Hamels and Will Smith. Even everyone’s favorite STL has added a total of two one year deals for a total of $8M. Obviously, STL was not a playoff team but generally respected. Perhaps their unwillingness to participate suggests something.

I know … None of these guys drop off-right? If we go back a few years and look at long contracts, I am sure they all did great until their last year. Starting with 2016 their were several guys who got 5,6, even 8 year contracts. Chris Davis, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward. Too bad we missed out on them. Jordan Zimmerman may have only produced 4.4 WAR over his 4 years but you really can’t say he dropped off. Of course 2015 was the year of Max Sherzer. He and Greinke are the reason teams have hope in these deals. Of course. 2015 also had Lester and Sandoval. Lester dropped off but he will be a decent 4 over the last half of his contract and Sandoval is still playing somewhere right. 2014 Ellsbury and Chin SOO Choo got 7 year deals in 2014. Of course Cano came out of that class too. It looks like he will only be bad for 5 years of his deal. 2013 was the first Greinke deal which he opted out of but he remains the guy who stands out in this crowd. That year also had Josh Hamilton and Melvin Upton getting 5 years each. They darn near produced 5 WAR between the two of them over their contracts and had Hamilton not been cut you could probably have said they did not fall off. Sanchez got a 5 year deal that year too. He was great the first year too but it’s hard to deny he did not suck the last 3 years of his contract. 2012 had some big signings we missed out on. Pujlos and Fielder came from that class. Jose Reyes came from that class as well and he was at least serviceable for the last 3 years of his 6 year deal. CJ Wilson rounds out that year but I am afraid there is no way to sugar coat that he was bad the last 3 years of his 5 year deal. Looking back at how all of these huys have only been bad in their final year it’s hard to imagine why the Twins don’t spend whatever it takes.