Major League Ready

Depends ... I am not going to assume to know the affect of the banned substance based on what is reported. I'm a fan, not a doctor and I only have the reported information to go on. If the Twins still have confidence, I think he fits nicely into the plan, especially on a 2-year deal. At the start of the off-season, I thought it was realistic to get Wheeler and bring back Odo and Pineada. Wheeler on a 4 or 5 year deal, Odo, one year, Pineda on a 2 year contract makes us better next year and allows us to transition Graterol / Balazovic and others over the next 2-3 seasons. Wouldn't it be nice to talk about it being hard for our prospects to crack the rotation.

Of the players contributing 1.5 WAR or more to 2019 playoff teams Houston had two 1 yr deals w/FAs Yankees had two 1 yr deals w/FAs Dodgers did not have a single FA or player they traded for Atlanta had 2 1yr free agents and no 1.5+ WAR players acquired by trade Oakland had 2 1yr free agents and 1 1.5+ WAR player. They did acquire six 1.5 WAR players via trade. However five of them were acquired as prospects. Tampa Bay also had 2 1yr free agents and 1 1.5+ WAR player. They acquire a whopping eight 1.5 WAR players via trade. However seven of them were acquired as prospects. This includes the trade or Archer (established) for Glasnow and Meadows who had not yet established themselves. The WS champion Nationals did trade for Adam Eaton (2.4 WAR). Milwaukee had two place holders in Grandal and Moustakis who were 2nd and 3rd to Yehlich in WAR. The results don’t agree with you position.

Is there a better option available for $7M and is he available on a 1 year deal? Hey, if you can upgrade at 3B, that's not a bad way to go but Cron for another year until (hopefully) one of our AAA guys forces their way onto to the team is a good plan too.

Avila would be a nice back-up to Garver and add a veteran presence with young pitching. I had not thought about Kendrick but he would be a good bridge if we could get him on a 1 year deal. Would prefer to see the rumor of Josh Donaldson come to fruition and move Sano over. Wow... that would be a scary offense. Add Wheeler and Pineada and you have a 105 win team, right!

Good point. It sounds much easier until you have to come up with a list of candidates. Although I am a little confused as to if you are saying from a playoff team or a non-playoff team.

I would like to think they would be closing this deal as we write here. IDK, maybe all of the teams have the reservations expressed here but then why are so many teams looking at him. It will be very interesting to see what it takes. I like that he has or at least it appears he has the highest ceiling of any of the FAs not named Cole or Strasburg. I would like to think Wes Johnson can help him harness his stuff.

The variance in expected performance varies greatly for FAs and trades for established players. So, based on this logic we can't evaluate free agent acquisitions or trades for MLB talent either until their contracts have expired. I think it's perfectly reasonable to assess those trades as of today.

The point is that there are times (like now for the twins) it makes sense to sign 4+ yr free agents. However, it's not essential and you beat this drum constantly as if there is no chance without signing this type of deal. Look at the highest contributors for LA. All of them home grown. They had a high payroll for years because they were still paying for guys that had not played for them for a couple years. The one year argument is absolutely bogus. Again, you refuse to accept the obvious. They have averaged 96 wins over the past 7 seasons and they have an exceptional core of young players. They will continue to be good. You bang the same drum without examining the models of success right before your eyes. BTW ... I know Corbin produced 4.8 fWAR. Morton produced 6.1 on a 2-year deal.

I am an advocate of them going 4-5 years for Wheeler or Bumgarner. However, year after year several posters insist signing the 5 year type guys is essential to winning. You and several others were quite incensed the Twins did not agree it was a no brainer to sign 2 of the high-end RPs. We would not be positioned to fill the holes we have in the rotation had the Twins FO agreed. It would be great if proponents actually checked this premise to see how successful teams were constructed. This year the 4 teams with the best records in MLB had a total of one free agent on a 4+ year deal that produced 1.5+ fWAR. That was Chapman. Morton was signed on a 2-year deal and had 1.3 higher fWAR than Corbin. LaMahieu and Donaldson (2 years and 1 year) produced 10.3 fWAR. Machado and Harper produced 7.7 fWAR. The 8 playoff teams had 102 players with 1.5+ WAR. Four of them were acquired via the type of contract you insist is critical to success. The Dodgers are a great case study. Go back 10 years. They signed the FAs you describe and traded for big name players. They went nowhere. The only FA player contributing 1.5 + fWAR last year were Intl free agents of modest cost. They had no players that were acquired as established MLB players. Of course, they do have an exceptionally high cost RP in Janzen but he was replacement level. The lowest revenue teams (Oakland / Tampa Bay) had 6 FAs contributing 1.5+ fWAR. Four of them were 1 year deals and Two 2-year deals. They had zero players acquired as established players and 12 between them acquired as prospects. They only had 5 players between the two teams that were drafted by the Rays/As. The facts do not support your theory.

Why would a team trade a #1 for a #3? The only reason a team trades a legit #1 SP is for a haul of prospects or prospects plus salary relief.

We had a lot of the same indignant responses when Sano was first criticized here. A couple years later the majority of people were pretty down on Sano. It was pretty much the same thing as I recall. Nobody thought he was a terrible player but he did not have the commitment necessary to make him the star he could be. I have great hope that Rosario finally recognizes he could be a far better / far more consistent player if he improves his plate discipline. I believe he wants to be great so badly that he can't help himself. The good news is that it is all together possible he will get sick and tired of pitchers making him look foolish and dedicate himself to taking better ABs like Sano did last year. You would think Sano's resurgence would be a great lesson for Eddie.

Aggressive within the strike zone is great but there are a high percentage of ABs where Eddie swings at a borderline pitch or a pitch outside the zone on the first pitch or even when he is ahead in the count. There is no selection once he gets two strikes. He is swinging. Being aggressive is not helping. Nobody can hit the crap pitchers throw at him now. He is so skilled that he is still able to hit some of those pitches but he would have Yehlich like numbers if he made opposing pitchers give him something in the strike zone. This is frustrating to watch because I can’t help but wonder what we would have in Eddie if he took more professional ABs.

Kirby was the model of consistency. He averaged 4.25 bWAR for 12 seasons. He had 2 seasons over 7 bWAR. Rosario has 10.3 bWAR over 5 season for an average of 2.06. Rosario has only had 1 season where he exceeded 3 bWAR and that was 2018 when he produced that WAR in the 1st half of the season. Since then, he has barley been above replacement value. Sure, stats don't tell everything but don't compare Rosario has not earned the right to be compared to Puckett. I will be just fine watching Rosario play with no discipline when he can produce like Kirby while doing so.

I would think the fact he can play both 1B and OF will get him here quicker. The scouting reports I found are old. How does he compare to Larnach as an OFer? Is Rooker destined for 1B? He does not seem to be an OF solution. I could see him being brought up mid-season if Cron does not produce, assuming Cron is signed.

I agree with you conceptually and from a best practices point of view. Hell, I applaud the insight and aptitude. It’s not hard to come up with a plan to improve in the immediate term. Sustaining success is far more difficult. Specifically where Cruz / Cron, and Rosario are concerned, I have to agree with Mike. Cruz is going to be hard to replace no matter what. However, there will be good options in the form of a prospect for that roster spot. Cron is really not hard to replace and I would hope that one of our prospects could be even better. I am not sure about Rosario. He has huge upside but he has produced 1.2 fWAR over the past season and a half. The league has adjusted and he has proven to be incapable of the plate discipline necessary to count the adjustments teams have made. It's likely IMO that Kirilloff or Larnach will produce better than Eddie in his current form at a prearb cost. The key is can they produce impact starting pitching? In this case, I am referring to their financial ability to keep the team together. They have quite a few guys that could step up over the next 2 years and lead the rotation. That would make it possible to replace Odorizzi next year with a prearb contract. It’s a good bet we will have another guy ready in 2 years. That’s why I am an advocate of a Pineada type signing for 2 years. The next would be nearly $30M coming off over at the end of 2021. They are positioned to be very good for several years if they keep the right prospects. Obviously, there are fans who would prefer to present focused approach but that's not going to happen. (see LA Dodgers)

We have seen several teams rebuild because they built the team in a financially unsustainable manner. The spreadsheet below has a projected payroll for 2020 but it also has the year the player hits free agency. This helps take a long-term look at the roster and also provides a view of potential sources of funds. Cruz comes off after 2020 as does Cron if we assume they keep him. The plan I have has a $143M payroll. The departure of Cruz and Cron provides $20M to cover arbitration / other increases. Gonzales comes off after 2021 providing another $9M. Rosario is another possible source if needed or if an advantageous scenario presents itself. Bottom line is that we will have the financial resource to cover increases in 2021 /2022 and keep this team together. Cruz / Cron / Gonzales represent just shy of $40M AAV. This is part of why I would keep Cruz. By next year we should be able to replace him with a prospect. Replacing Cruz will be a tall order but we have some good bats waiting in the wings.

It just does not generally work that way with the top guys, especially with so many teams (high revenue teams) looking for SPs. It does not matter what you offer, their agent is going to see if they can get more or get the same amount from a team they prefer.

I am thinking it makes them bold going after Wheeler / Bumgarner because it reduces risk. It does make signing both more financially viable. Obviously, it does not make it any easier to attract two top FA starting pitchers when so many team are pursuing SPs but I think it makes them a little bolder.

Sorry, I missed that part. Just heard on MLB radio Odorizzi is strongly considering taking the QO so we might have a SP on a 1 year deal by the end of the day.

As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

Perhaps I failed to convey it but I was trying to make the exact point you just made.

Trading Gray would signify the Rockies are going to rebuild. Why would they trade Grey who has 2 years of control for any position player with 2 years control? Rosario has very little value to a rebuilding team. I would love to see an answer from any of the people who are suggesting similar trades. Teams have adjusted their approach to Rosario. His value is very modest unless he proves he can apply a reasonable degree of plate discipline. Why sell low. Give him a chance to prove he can adjust. I don’t believe he does not know where the ball is going. He gets the bat on balls that are 16 inches off the plate, balls in his eyes and balls in the dirt. The question is why the hell is he swinging at the balls? Eddie would be one of the best hitters in the league if he did what Sano did last year in terms of improved plate discipline. If I were signing an outfielder it would be a RH to platoon w/Cave. Perhaps Garcia. I really like Pomeranz to bolster the BP but it’s going to cost more than 3.5M. Chirinos is fine but why not just resign Castro? There are several high revenue teams shopping for SP. Wheeler is going to cost more than 4/72. My guess is that it takes a 5 year deal to land him. If not it will be something like $4/84 or an Arietta type deal for $3/75.

If the Twins really had no better use for their considerable payroll headroom in 2020, instead of Price they could offer to take on shorter-term dead money from the Red Sox, such as Pedroia's remaining contract (I'm unsure what Rusney Castillo's remaining obligations are). But I think there are better uses, so I don't really see how to make an attractive offer. Pedroia has $25M / Castillo $14M

Was thinking the exact same thing.

I agree their BP was effective but I would not judge their BP investment by what happened in this particular series. A couple things come to mind …. If the point is that investing in RPs is inefficient way to spend in free agency, the fact that the Yankees lead in this category does not mean it’s a good practice. Also, I would not look at a given example (the Yankees) when judging an investment or a practice. They represent a small sample. I would suggest looking at all relievers or all playoff teams to judge player acquisition models. This is a far more reliable practice. Any measure including all RPs of this profile will show them to be a poor investment. Two, the Yankees have literally double the revenue of the Twins. They could pay out 15M each for 6 RPs and still have the Twins budget to spend on 20 players instead of 26. The Twins will almost certainly fail if they follow the same practices as the Yankees. It is a mathematical certainty the Twins have to produce more with less payroll $. For example, The Yankees top RPs acquired by free agency were Chapman / Ottovitto / Britton for a total $39M AAV and they produced 4.2 fWAR. The Twins got 4.3 fWAR from Cruz for $12M. Spend the other $27M on Bumgarner and Pineda. I would allocate roughly $50M to starting pitching if I can attract the players. The other $15-20M between a b/u catcher, 1B, and a LH RP.