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Rosario had 1.2 fWAR in 137 games and ranked 33rd among LFers. I would say that's not all that hard to replace. Jake Cave had .9 in 72 games. Assuming the the same performance over 137 games, he would have produced 1.7 fWAR. I don't think he is the answer either but I would play Cave until Larnach or Kirilloff is ready. The team would be better off taking whatever they get in trade and then spending the incremental $8M on pitching or a back-up catcher.

Sorry. I could not make up my mind if he was a Sp or RP and left him in both places. I started to write that I would let Rosario go and get a catcher. Maybe even try to bring back Castro. * Is is possible to upload an image?

Here is their payroll assuming a $50M budget for FA pitching and arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors. I am sure this is not the exact 26 man roster that will roll out next spring but this exercise helps in determining the financial feasibility of any moves. They could also keep Rosario and Cron but I would rather they trade Rosario this off-season if possible. They have plenty of options for LF. Starters 1 Jose Berrios 5,400,000 2 FA / SP #1 3 FA / SP #2 4 FA / SP #3 FA SP TOTAL 50,000,000 5 Lewis Thorpe 555,000 6 Randy Dubnnak 555,000 Devin Smeltzer 555,000 Brusdar Graterol 555,000 Jordan Balazovic Bailey Ober Johan Duran Relief Pitchers 6 Taylor Rogers 3,900,000 7 LH / FA 6,000,000 8 Tyler Duffey 1,100,000 9 Trevor May 2,100,000 10 Zack Littell 555,000 11 Sam Dyson 12 Ryne Harper 555,000 13 Randy Dobnak 555,000 13 Cody Stashak 13 Fernando Romero 13 Trevor Hildenberger 13 Sean Poppen Catchers 14 Willians Astudillo 560,000 15 Mitch Garver 575,000 Ryan Jeffers Infielders 16 Ehire Adrianza 1,900,000 17 Luis Arraez 555,000 18 C.J. Cron 7,700,000 19 Marwin Gonzalez 9,000,000 20 Jorge Polanco 3,883,333 21 Miguel Sano 5,900,000 Nick Gordon N/A Outfielders 22 Byron Buxton 2,900,000 23 Jake Cave 572,500 24 Max Kepler 6,250,000 25 Eddie Rosario 8,900,000 Alex Kirilloff Trevor Larnach Brent Rooker 26 DH - Cruz 12,000,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 133,080,833

Cobb got 4 years. If not for the strong swing toward shorter contracts, you would think those guys are 4 years for sure. I still think Wheeler and Bumgarner get 4 years but I am not taking any bets. The key is can they sign these guys to 4 years and keep a team around them. I believe they can. Cruz (12M) comes off next year. We will feel his loss but that money can be allocated to Arb increases. Gonzales comes off after the 2021 season. Rosario probably has to be traded but we have a couple good replacement candidates close. It would also help to get a pre-arb replacement for Cron either this year or next.

No. I said that I don't believe as some here do that "impact" SPs can be acquired for our surplus 45-50 FV prospects. However, I would be all-in if we could get a SP with at least 2 years control for that type of prospect. No worries though ... It's hard to keep straight all the ideas thrown around here.

For starters, I am not putting words in your mouth. I used your exact quote. Perhaps you were making more of a conceptual statement but it definitely did not read that way. I have said I would start by trying to get Cole. If that happened I would sign Wheeler / Bumgarner / or Odorizzi in that order. If I could get that done I would figure out the rest between our prospects, come back candidates or maybe even Perez or Pineada if financially feasible. This might not be much better during the regular season but better in the playoffs. If I could not get Cole, I would target two of Wheeler / Bumgarner / or Odorizzi and the 4th spot to Pineada. Anderson if I could not get two of those three. The fifth spot would go to Dubnak / Smeltzer or Graterol.

How did you conclude I am a proponent of a Samardzija type trade? In general, I don't like trading multiple players with multiple years of control for a guy who had one year of control. You also ignored all of the other facts I posted which is by far the more relevant information. In other words, you completely avoid the hard evidence with refutes the validity of the strategies you support. I welcome you to list all of those $150M+ contracts signed by teams of a similar profile and top prospects traded by them.

Actually, I did not say the couldn't do it. I sadd it was uncommon and our expectations should reflect that rarity. You said this is what is required. History is exceptionally clear that not only is this not a requisite action, other models / approaches have been more successful. BTW ... I have stated in a few different posts what I would do. The rub here is really no different than it has always been. That being fans thinking that a team with a $50M-$250M revenue disadvantage with several teams can just go outbid the other teams. The second thing being we can trade a few 45-50 FV prospects for impact SPs. Hey, if they can trade Javier / Rooker / Duran etc for a top SP with 2 or more years of control ... I am all in.

Like usual you are ignoring what I said and twisting it into a completely different argument. I responded to a poster who said “Will the Twins ever dive into the deep end? This is what it takes to be a WS contender.” He was referring to the current contenders who combined spent in excess of $120M AAV for their top two SPs. History is very clear that this is not what it takes. As a matter of fact, this is an anomaly that I would guess has NEVER happened before. Where point two is concerned … how about giving examples. I never siad the Twins should not make trades. I said that teams with the Twins revenue rarely trade top 15 prospects. If I am wrong show me. Give examples instead of twisting the argument. Where point two is concerned … Again, how about giving examples. I asked how many SPs have been signed to $150M deals by teams with revenue equal to or less than the Twins. I added the concession that the Dbacks signed Grienke but the fact they just signed a billion dollar TV contract. Just once it would be great if you actually addressed my position head on instead of changing the discussion. My points were exceptionally specific. Show me the top prospects traded for Ace SPs and the $150M contracts for SPs signed by teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins. If you come up with a significant number of examples I will gladly concede I am wrong. If not, there is always the possibility you have a much better understanding of how to succeed running a mid or small market team as compared to the GMs doing the job.

This medium tends to mix points. It's just the nature of the beast. My point is that part of the rub here is quite a few people here willing to trade Lewis or Kirilloff and even both. I was simply pointing out GMs of similar revenue teams are not. GMs are not that short-term focused because it is there responsibility to build sustainable success. We also differ in our opinion of difference makers being acquired for 6-20 type / 45 FV prospects. The one exception is a team dumping salary but there are not many opportunities of this type. I don't believe the FO has a problem (nor do I) trading the next tier with the exception of Graterol / Balazovic. They are by far the most likely source of an ace and one or both of them becoming an ace or close to it would be enormous for this franchise. The fact that Bumgarner and Wheeler did not get traded at the deadline would suggest it was not just the Twins. The asking price was very high. There were several teams needing SP help and these guys were not traded. The reports specific to the twins suggested the only prospects other teams were interested in were Lewis / Kirilloff / Graterol & Balazovic even for rentals. We have no way to know for sure but I don't believe the problem was an unwillingness by the Twins to Trade prospects outside their top 5.

You have a point in that it was not a complete bust. However, the context of this conversation is how to get SP that will take us to the next level. Rolling trades for still unproven players is at a minimum not a solution to the problem being discussed. Actually, it’s the opposite of what is being suggested by all of us. More to the point is that the result of that trade was nothing more than a side note. The discussion was the willingness of teams with equivalent or less revenue to trade top 15 prospects. I would be interested to hear your examples if my take on this is wrong. If I am correct that it is quite rare are the posters here who insist this should be done correct and all of these GMs incompetent? Even more interesting is that you bring up the example of Samardzija to the CWS. That is an example of why GMs are far more reluctant to make these trades than most fans. That trade hurt the CWS for the next 4 years and probably next year too. Samardzija posted a .2 WAR for the CWS. Simien produced 11.1 WAR over the next 4 years including 4 WAR last year and they still have another year of control. For 1 year of replacement level production, they gave up 5 years of a very good player. They have 3 more years of control with Bassitt.

There are a number of reasonable strategies. I am not suggesting we sit on our hands. However, there tends to be a lot of rather indignant comments where posters assert the ineptitude of the FO for not believing as they do that certain strategies are “no-brainers. History not only does not support these positions but would refute these assertions if the posters would take an unbiased look at the facts / history. World Series starting pitching is a good example. The same argument is made every year here that the Twins need to spend big in FA to compete. History suggests that this strategy is a very poor way to build a contender, especially for a mid-market team. Successful teams, not just WS winners, draft and develop, make savvy trades, and get production out of modestly priced FAs. High-end free agents have a modest overall impact compared to drafting / development / trades and even the signing of 2nd tier FAs that perform exceptionally well. I would not be inclined to take a hard stance on any strategy without the scouting reports and analytics available to the FO. Having said this … I think the team is in a position where they might have a chance at Strasburg or Cole. They also have the payroll for one other from the group of Wheeler / Odorizzi / Bumgarner. Then, take a shot at a couple projects and prospects to fill out the rotation. I don’t think that team wins more games than last year but they are better positioned for the playoffs. If you can’t get Cole or Strasberg, a good plan B would be to sign two of Wheeler / Odorizzi / Bumgarner plus Pineda. Kuechel or Anderson would be acceptable just not preferable in this scenario. We have the payroll room to make that happen. Obviously convincing two of the three most sought after FAs to come here is also a tall task. Making another trade as good as the Odorizzi trade would be an enormous boost. In that scenario, I would simply take the two best FAs we can get and we could afford that even if one of them was Cole or Strasburg.

I don't really disagree with anything you said but you are dramatically expanding the argument. I responded to a post that asserted a very specific requirement. That assertion was that getting to the WS required an expenditure of $60M+ on two SPs as is the case with Washington & Houston this year. That is simply not even remotely representative of most winning teams. How many top 15 prospects like Lewis / Kirilloff have been traded by teams with revenue equivalent to the Twins for elite starting pitching? The only example I can think of is when Oakland traded Russel for Samardzija and that was a complete bust. There has to be others but it is very rare. Are all of the GMs of those teams with limited revenue stupid or are those elite prospects so essential to building a winner that they won't part with them? How many SPs have been signed to $150M deals by teams with revenue equal to or less than the Twins? One ... when Arizona signed Grienke. Of course, they had just signed a billion dollar TV deal. Washington's incremental revenue more than pay's for Strasburg. Detroit did pay big for a number of FAs and their revenue was not that much higher than the Twins but their owner and his willingness to spend was uncharacteristic. Point being we can hope to sign Cole or Strasburg but we should also recognize how rare this would be.

1) I said the Yankees got to the World Series not won the world series. 2) I did not say it's never been done. The point was clearly that it was not necessary to spend $60M+ on two SPs as the post I was responding to suggested. 3) The point of my post was that these WS participants got there with SPs that cost $8M-16M in the case of Rich Hill. 4) Of course some of these SPs were pre-arb. That's what happens when you draft or trade for prospects and then develop that talent. My point was that contenders were built on development and savvy trades and/or lesser price FAs. I don't think you even bothered to consider the point of the response. To be clear, the post I responded to said the Twins have to be willing to spend for a couple $30M+ SPs because "that's what it takes to get to the WS". That statement is not remotely true. I am not sure what you are arguing about.

I did not think that history would support this conclusion so I took a look. In 2018, the Yankees got to the WS with one relatively high price SP. Their other SPs were the kind of FAs being complained about there. The Dodgers had one high priced SP in Kershaw who the developed and paid to keep. 2017 was the same story for the Dodgers. The Astros traded for Verlander at the deadline. They had no highly compensated SPs at the start of the season. In 2016, the cubs had one high price FA in the form of Jon Lester. Of course, the other participant was Cleveland who had a phenomenal staff. None of them were FA signings. In 2015, the Mets got there on the strength of starting pitching they developed. Their highest paid SP was 42 year-old Bartolo Colon at $11M. There entire payroll was $128M and that includes the $5.3M they payed Gee to play in the minors. KC’s highest paid player SP was Jeremy Guthrie at $9M and they traded at the deadline for Cueto. In 2014, KC had James shields at $13M and a journeymen in the form of Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie. SF had Tim Hudson at $11M and their next highest paid SP was Ryan Vogelsong at $5M. In 2013, Boston had Lackey and Dempster at a combined $29M so they had a significant investment but a long way from $60M+ for two SPs. STL had an internally developed staff. So, to say having two or three of the highest paid SPs in the game is what it takes requires we ignore the facts. I would come to a different conclusion that getting there has been a product of good drafting and development, savvy trades, and getting great production out of modest price FAs.

If they let Schoop / Castro and Perez go, the payroll decrease is a little over $60M. They do have quite a few arbitration cases but you have to believe the net would cover Odorizzi, Pineada and a Wheeler type SP. Plus, revenue is up so there is payroll capacity. Then, there is always the possibility of other moves like trading Rosario. I don't believe they could get the type of ML SP we need this year but the difference in his 2020 compensation being added to the mix could make Strasburg or Cole possible. Of course, having the payroll capacity and convincing them to play for a mid-market team are two different things.

The post I replied to suggested a net 19 win loss if we did nothing more than kept Odorizzi & Pineda. It seemed to me that was a reactionary comment. Cole or Strasburg would be great but they are longshots. It's very rare that type of free agent SP signs outside of the biggest markets. They want the limelight and in some cases the endorsement dollars that go with it. However, in this scenario of keeping Odorizzi & Pineda, we can replace Gibson with Wheeler / Kuechel / Bumgarner or even Anderson and get better. They could exercise the option for Perez or renegotiate a deal with him if they can’t do better. Personally, I would fill the 5th starter between Dubnak / Graterol and Smeltzer and spend the money to retain Odorizzi and Pineda and the best outside FA we can get. They need to focus the dollars at the top of the rotation to become more playoff viable. We can also pick-up a rental for playoffs if the opportunity presents itself.

I think just about everyone here would say they need to do better than to retain Odorizzi and Pineda. However, to suggest they go backward 19 games from 2019 with a net difference of losing Kyle Gibson is a bit dramatic.

Let's face it, when it comes to anything financial, you and I will rarely agree. You either don't understand or are intentionally misrepresented my message. We are well positioned because we did not invest $22-24M in RPs that ended up producing zero WAR. t. That's exactly what I said but you have twisted it. The $10M is a related comment. That 22-24M can now be invested instead in a front of the rotation SP which I suggested is the team's most critical need. Let's also keep in mind you suggested the FO was either incompetent or just cheap when they failed to sign the big dollar RPs that have failed miserably.

Without looking it up … I think we are within $10M of are all-time high payroll. It just amazes me that people think spending an extra $10M is a difference maker. There are teams that generate literally hundreds of millions more in revenue. If you think another 10 or even $20M in payroll is the key to success, you are looking at the wrong practices. Most people here were exasperated that the FO could not see what a no brainer it was to go get a couple big name relievers. There were 10 that got over $7M AAV. People are still complaining even though one of the 10 relievers has been better than Ryne Harper and the other nine have produced ZERO WAR collectively. Even Magill had more WAR than most of the highest paid FA RPs. This is not a revelation. Relievers have been notoriously unpredictable / unreliable. I tried to suggest investing $20M+ in a couple of relievers was not the best use of funds and that such an investment could bite us in the A$$ when it came time to make additions after the 2019 season. Fans would have been elated had we spent 22-24M to get two of Miller / Robertson / Familia and they all have negative WAR. More importantly, that salary would not have been available to be directed at starting Pitching next year. IDK if we can attract Cole or Bumgarner but I am damn glad they did max the payroll for the 2019 and the next couple years by adding the BP arms most TD posters insisted was a no brainer. We are positioned well because the FO did not make any bad deals. Hey ... attracting top FA starting pitchers is tough even when the budget is there so its no guarantee we will get a top FA SP but we should recognize spending wisely as well as developing internal talent is absolutely crucial to being in a position to utilize free agency to get a front of the rotation SP which in my opinion is far and away the biggest need going forward.

I was thinking the same thing, Mike. A team that would want Rosario is not a team that would be likely to be giving up good starting pitching. Not impossible but very uncommon. Between Gibson / Odorizzi / Pineda / Reed / Hughes / Sanatana / Morrison / Schoop and Castro, we have $57M coming off the books. Sign two of Gibson / Odorizzi / Pineda. What's market value? Roughly $25-28M for two of them. That leaves around $30M to spend on other pitching and there are some good FA starting pitchers next year. Kuechel will be back on the market along with Bumgarner. Cole will be the big prize. Zack Wheeler is having a mediocre year but he is a good candidate as well. Bottom line is they don't have to trade anyone. The core position players will remain reasonably priced for the next 3 years. I would probably try to extend Gibson now. It's a good message. He has been a good team guy and consistent (albeit average) performer who is at times quite good. He is also in great shape and a good candidate to age well. Then, sign one of Odorizzi / Pineda. Players like to stay with their teams. Plus this going to be a good team for awhile. We should be able to keep one of them. Now go get the best SP on the open market. I would say go get Cole but the word is he wants to play on the west coast. Some things you just can't fight but go get the best SP truly available to us. Smeltzer gets the 5th spot. Use the team option on Perez if you want a long man or if you believe he can be effective as a RP. You still have enough budget for another RP.

Kuechel only signed for this year, right. He is a free agent next season. Bumgarner / and Wheeler are FAs. I was hoping we would see Tehran this series as he is a FA at the end of the year. Gerrit Cole and Alex Wood would both be great acquisitions. I don’t think Houston can afford any more big contracts but I have read Cole want to play on the west coast. Not sure how hard it would be to pry Cole from Cincinnati. That’s quite a few good options. This is the year they need to pony up and land a top FA Starter. That addition to Berrios and at least one of our current starters plus whatever prospect steps up should make a better staff than this year. We could also sign Archer hoping for him to bounce back. I hope you get your wish this year and we land a top FA starter. The FAs should be more receptive than past years given the state of the team and we will be in the financial position to get it done.

Rosario was great the 1st half of 2018. Since then he has produced .9 Fwar. Zero for the 2nd half of last year and .9 to date this year. He is 10th among our position players in fWAR this season. I would sure hope one of our OF prospects could produce better than what we have seen in Rosario since the 1st half of last year. I also would not expect much in a trade.

Next year we have a 26 man roster. One of our OF prospects is going to become the 4th outfielder. I would love to see Eddie mature and keep his spot but I would bet one of those prospects ends up earning the starting spot. This was not hard to see coming. Eddie was a favorite of my wife and I but I told her in his 2nd year he would need to improve his approach or ML pitchers would get the better of him. What is really frustrating is that he seems plenty capable in terms of pitch recognition. He is simply that undisciplined. We hear often that coached don't want o take away a players aggressiveness but allowing a player to continue to take poor ABs does not make sense. Did anyone notice during the series with the Yankee ... their players make the pitcher throw the ball over the plate.

That may have had something to do with it. He also was among the top 5 for swinging outside the strike zone last year. He has no plan and no discipline. He would be a perennial all-star if he had an approach comparable to Arreaz or probably even with average plate discipline but his approach is horrible. What about his numbers this year? He is 9th on the team in fWAR as well as wPA+. Arreaz has already passed him in fWAR with exactly half as many games played. He has had a couple streaks during his career when he has been awesome so some fans ignore the big picture. He is not a player I would extend. As a matter of fact, I hope we have a couple OFers making so much noise that the FO feels they can deal Rosario this off season or at the deadline next year.