Major League Ready

It just astounds me when people say there is no salary cap. None of us has a cap on spending either. That does not change the fact that we don't spend more than we make. If the money could be distributed better elsewhere, how is the money invested in Donaldson not an issue? I am also curious how "obviously, they are on a budget" does not negate the fact there is no salary cap. Do they have a limit on what they can spend or not?

It's pretty common to see a pitcher really elevate their ceiling by adding or even improving a secondary pitch. I would agree that it would be a win to get a decent RP in the 15th round. However, we should all be intrigued by the possibility of Varland becoming a starter. He reminds me a little or Lance Lynn and wouldn't be great if he ended up as good as Lance Lynn.

I don't see a problem with the 40 man. I expect the Twins buyout Colome's option which leaves them +4 on the 40-man. IMO, there are 6 fringe guys on the 40 man. Barnes / Burrows / Ferrell / Law / Minaya / Thorpe Also losing one of Cave / Garlick or Refsnyder is not that big of a deal. So, there are probably 9 guys that would not hurt that much to lose and I am not including Valimont / Enlow because I am not sure we should expose them. I second Mike's preference that they trade a couple guys on the 40-man in deadline trades. I am also hoping for quality over quantity in whatever trades they pull-off in the next couple days. Would love to hear we have signed Buxton and traded for a top SS or SP by Friday. We will find room for them on the 40 man.

I too have criticized the organizations inability to develop SPs. However, at the risk of repeating myself, the answer is not to pursue inferior strategies because we have not executed the best practices. The answer is fixing the inability to find and develop SPs. The previous administration earned the label of not being able to find and develop SPs. The verdict is not in yet on this regime. With the additions of Ryan and Strotman, our pitching pipeline looks quite good although I am not confident their is an ace among them but some of them could turn into Berrios. I should add I expect pitching and or a SS to be the target for trading Pineda and Berrios. The keys as I see them to get back to contention. 1) Develop the existing SP pipeline is the crucial element in making this team a contender anytime soon. 2) Extend or resign Buxton. 3) Trade Berrios for a guy who can be as good or better than him or an elite SS prospect 4) Move Donaldson's contract 5) Use the money saved by moving Buxton and not signing Berrios to land a top of the rotation SP. I put this 5th only because the best case but not most likely case scenario is the SP development goes so well we don't need a FA. 6) Miranda and Lewis developing in the above average MLB players. 7) Duran might be worthy of mentioning separate from all the others because he could be an Ace or a bust.

They should have left him on the bench hoping someone would take him off our hands.

This is what I was thinking when I posed the question. They could make it work with all 3. They just already have a lot of guys looking to get ABs at 1B, especially if Donaldson's defense continues to decline.

I had the same reaction after watching a couple of Varland's starts. He could make it as a RP with his reliance of the FB but his ability to make it as a SP at the major league level will depend on the development of his secondary pitched. Of course, that's what they are supposed to do in Milb.

I too have been hoping for Rortvedt's bat to develop. His defense is great and he will stick at the MLB level. A little better offense and he is really something. The question is ... How do we handle the roster with Garver looking like he can sustain his offense closer to 2019 than 2020. Do we trade Jeffers or do we use Garver at DH / 1B and catcher? Obviously, we don't need to make any decisions now.

Nice plan! The only thing I would do slightly different is move Donaldson if a good decent is available. I think our chances of being a real contender in 2022 is very low. By 2023 he will be in his age 37 season. I would rather give Miranda or perhaps even Lewis a chance to get established in 2022. Miranda is unlikely to ever be as good as Donaldson in his prime but there is a good chance he is as good as 37 y/o Josh Donaldson. Take that money and invest in pitching or a SS next year and you are no worse in 2022 and better (probably) in 2023. We would need to send money with him. However, it could be distributed over this year and next with no obligation in 2023. With Berrios leaving, this plan definitely does not bet on 2022 but it is also far from a rebuild. Adding Ryan and Strotman to Balazovic / Duran / Canterino / Winder / Enlow / Sands plus whatever we get for Berrios and Pineda gives us a very good bet to establish 3-4 SPs over the remainder of this year and next. That will provide the financial flexibility to retain Buxton, sign a top FA pitcher and even sign a SS if needed.

Is it your opinion the Rays were admitting to a full rebuild when they traded Snell ( 3 years remaining) last year or when they let Morton walk in free agency. If not, how is the Rays situation different? Did the Twins go into full rebuild mode when they traded Pressly during the 2018 season? If so, that's what we should do because they went from 78 wins to 101 wins. What if their plan was to take the prospects for Berrios and replace Berrios with an equivalent or better free agent. Obviously, they need to succeed but they need to succeed resigning Berrios in the context beyond next year but that certainly would not be a rebuilding a strategy. That would be a strategy the Rays have used to stay good with a fraction of the budget top revenue teams spend.

For starters, the Twins are not clearing out their ML roster and I have not heard anyone suggest they do so. However, that practice has been both common and successful when teams are looking to rebuild. KC started their rebuild that led to a WS victory after 20 years of futility by trading Zack Grienke. Their CF (Cane) and SS (Escober) came from that trade. The Astros traded every player on their roster with any experience when they started their rebuild. The Whitesox trade Sale and Eaton and they would not be in the position they are today without the multiple good players that came out of that trade. We could go on but what's the point because that is not what the Twins are looking to do. So far, the Twins have traded one player on an expiring contract and will trade more expiring contracts. I guess what I would suggest where this practice is concerned is to look around the league a little. Read some baseball news or listen some baseball radio shows/podcasts. Literally EVERY (when out of the playoff race) purges expiring contracts in hope of future improvement. It is not just common, it's standard practice. So, yes, failure to acknowledge this is a standard practice is going to put you in the minority because most of us pay attention to the practices across the league. Where Berrios and/or Buxton are concerned, that's a little different. The are under contract until the end of 2022. The difference is basically two-fold. They could bring back players that are difference makers for 6+ years. The FO has to weigh the value of the impact on 2022 by keeping them IF they get a great offer VS the impact on multiple years. Some of us weigh those variables and conclude the team would be better off taking the assets than betting on 2022 based on the fact we have many holes to fill. Others want to avoid letting good players go under almost any circumstance. You might want to take a look at what the Rays have done in recent years. They have clearly demonstrated the value of maximizing asset value.

I was with you up to the point where you made a sweeping statement about spending as if it were fact. Houston let Cole go? How are they doing? Cleveland's largest contract ever is $60M and they have had many 90 win seasons. The Ray's have had exactly one big contract, Longoria 100M and an AAV of 16.6M. The Royals largest contract was $72M and the Pirate's was $60M. One of the best decision the Cardinal's ever made was letting Pujlos go and one of the worst was signing Small/mid market teams making bad decisions is a way to be bad for a very long time. It also does not do any good even for big market teams with a core of affordable talent. Philly signed both Harper / Wheeler and Realmuto. They have not been good for a while. How about the Angels. They drafted the best player in the game and signed expensive free agents and have done very little for the last several years. Pujlos contract, even with their revenue, hurt them badly.

He is going to get bought out for 2.75M in 2023 unless 2022 is quite a bit better than 2021. I would love for him to rebound enough in 2022 that they want to pay him $14M in 2023. Who knows. He was great in 2019. Wouldn't it be nice to have that guy back because this guy is kind of hard to watch.

The BETA tests I was referring to are rule changes and I don't have any strong opinions there. For example, I am really on the fence on shift restrictions. I thought players who learn to hit the other way and bunt should be rewarded but it does not seem like players / teams are going to adapt. Therefore, maybe we should change thge rules, IDK. In terms of compensation, I think Milb players should make double what they make now. Why do you think we would disagree?

All of the BETA tests in Milb are a testament to the league's awareness of the problem. I suspect they also have examined a number of distribution options. Not knowing their plans, my confidence might be lower than warranted. It will be very interesting to see attendance numbers post attendance restrictions. I also wonder if the next CBA distributes the available dollars a little differently. I could see minimum salaries going to something like 750K / $850K / $1M over the first three year. Arbitration could start year 3 and the amounts could creep up. These factors would collectively redistribute dollars across to pre-arb and arbitration players.

Not so sure it looks that much different. Is revenue going to continue to go up? The momentum in popularity and revenue seems to have leveled off. I would guess revenue growth slows considerably. Then throw in the possibility of a work stoppage and that could turn even more people away. It would be interesting to have all of the local TV data. Is that slowing as well and along with it TV revenues? The Twins contract is among the lowest in MLB and it's up in 2023. I was hoping for a big bump but I am not so sure that happens. Hopefully, MLB finds a distribution strategy that makes it easier for all fans to get the broadcast. That could help TV revenues.

I am more concerned they sign Buxton than Berrios so don't get me wrong. I want them to sign him. My objection is two fold. One, people taking a hard stance with very little information. Two, he has performed at an elite level for a very short period of time AND he has not been able to stay on the field. So, the comparisons of players that have produced at an elite level and stayed relatively healthy is just not valid for determining compensation. The other point I will make is that spending wisely and winning has a more significant correlation as revenue compared to the top teams decreases. Let's just say we want to build a team with players producing 50 WAR. The Twins can spend about $3M per WAR and the top teams can spend $5M+ per WAR. Therefore, we have to be far more efficient with our spending. It's not an opinion. It's hard fact. Therefore, to not care about spending effectively is to not care about decreasing our chances to win.

No, I could not have made the same point. The point is no player with his track record has every gotten a guarantee anywhere near $125-150M you suggest is necessary to be legit. My point was that you used a very specific term "legitimate". Comps legitimize such a position not opinions. What you did was doubled down on an opinion. If your position is legitimate, there will be examples of other players with similar track records that have signed contracts for $125-150M accurate, I think you know those examples don't exist but persist regardless. You are comparing him to players with a much more established track record of production. Buxton has a career WAR of 11.1. His highest wRC+ 118 and that was a season in which he 135 PAs. His highest wRC+ in a season with more than 200 ABS is 111. He has not produced at a level that warrants 150M contract for more than a spurt. The really tough part is I agree with you and others who suggest there is a decent chance he will going forward. It's a very tough call.

Brock can speak for himself but that's not how I see the freeing of salary. It does not mean that exact amount of salary being repurposed. It could mean spending $25M instead of $12M on a given SP.

Actually, if they fill the roster with strictly prearb players, assuming minimum salary goes to 650K and Maeda's contract pays as expected, the payroll would be $94M. The minimum is probably going to be higher than $650K but the difference probably not substantial in the context of this discussion. Arb numbers are in blue. They would need to spend quite a bit in the BP next year if they hope to contend. Starters SALARY 1 Jose Berrios 9,000,000 2 Kenta Maeda 9,000,000 3 Bailey Ober 650,000 4 Josh Winder 650,000 5 Jordan Balazovic 650,000 X Matt Canterino X Cole Sands X Blayne Enlow Free Agent Relief Pitchers 6 Taylor Rogers 8,000,000 7 Tyler Duffey 3,300,000 8 Jorge Alcala 650,000 9 Prospect 650,000 10 ? 650,000 12 ? 650,000 12 ? 650,000 13 ? 650,000 Colome (Buy Out) 1,250,000 Catchers 14 Mitch Garver 2,900,000 15 Ryan Jeffers 650,000 Infielders 16 Miguel Sano 9,250,000 17 Jorge Polanco 5,500,000 18 Josh Donaldson 21,750,000 19 SS 650,000 20 Luis Arraez 650,000 21 Nick Gordon 650,000 Outfielders 22 Max Kepler 6,750,000 23 Byron Buxton 7,000,000 24 Trevor Larnach 650,000 25 Alex Kirilloff 650,000 26 Rob Refsneider 650,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 94,100,000

I don't think any GM / PBO is going to determine an offer based on 27 games which is why I asked for a comp. He has ben a top 5 player for 27 games. It sounds like you are basing your offer on 27 games where he has been fantastic for sure. Now show us a comp of a $150M contract with even remotely similar past performance. I suspect you avoided the question because you know there is not a comp, not even close.

Just one opinion but I don't think they are all that different. The 3rd company where I had full P&L responsibility was just a little larger than the Twins in terms of revenue. We had about 100 less employees. All those Milb players increases the number of personnel. However, the technical staff was just a little larger than the Milb and MLB players combined. Acquiring and developing staff was a crucial part of success. My experience is that certain people are not accepting an offer unless it's so extreme that it just does not make sense for the company (team). It was much the same with the exception being we dealt with a considerably more complex set of challenges in terms of managing the things that could go wrong. Yet, fixing a struggling pitcher can be as hard as finding a problem among 10s of thousands of servers in a Tier Four data center. Very different atmosphere, not so different in terms of making personnel decisions that are good for the business/team?

Right, I used a 3 year opt out and you said 4. My bad but the point remains the same at 52M guaranteed. Having said this, I totally agree with you and I have now heard two ex-GMs detail their thoughts on the radio and they agree with you. I just think Buxton and his agent are holding out for a higher percentage of guaranteed money. That seems very plausible, right. We can all sit here and throw out terms that seem to make sense but it's all quite irrelevant if the player is holding out for a guarantee. Players really strongly prefer to be guaranteed the money regardless of what transpires on the field so this should be expected. The same is true for Berrios. Many assumptions the team would not give him 5/125 or something in that neighbor. Therefor, the problem is the team must be cheap. How do we know that Berrios refuses to forego free agency for less than 6/180? All of our solutions are meaningless without know the player's expectations/demands. One last thought on Buxton, I really want to get him signed. However, I am conflicted knowing he has never stayed on the field and with the exception of one month this year, he has never been much above average offensively. His history is a bit like JBJ and I bet Milwaukee is wishing they had that deal back.

I can't think of another player with Buxton's career stats that got $150M or even close? The best comp is probably Springer last season. He got $150 over 6 years, not 5. Springers career WAR is 26, Buxton's is 11.1. Springer's career wRC+ is 135, Buxton's career wRC+ is 96 with a high of 118 with the exception of 110 PAs this season. Do you have comps or are you coming up with this number out of the blue?

With the opt out you would be guaranteeing 39M. I doubt he Buxton's camp see's this as a better offer. Perhaps more to the point, the sticking point seems to be Buxton wants less incentive more guarantee which is no surprise. IDK why so many people are assuming he is willing to take a significant amount of incentive component in any offer. He has played in 37% of games played in the past 4 years. It's no surprise Buxton and his agent are hoping someone will overlook this fact.