Major League Ready

I think you were on an interesting path had you compared these players contributions to winning back to back Central titles. However, I don’t know how we can come to the conclusion Rosario lead the 2019 Twins to a division Championship? He was 11th in WAR, not for the entire team, just among position players. His OPS wRC+ was 103. Sano 137, Kepler 121, and Polanco 119. If we are talking about “leading” the Twins, Cruz and Garver were the offensive leaders. 2020 was an odd duck. The only offensive star was Nelson Cruz with a wRC+ of 164. Rosario was at 110 and Kepler 107. A 110 wRC+ and below average defense is not leading a team to a division Championship. I would say the pitching staff led the effort to win the Central in 2020. What if Sano/Kepler and Polanco were arbitration eligible? All three would have been hard calls. Sano the most likely to be non-tendered because that position is easiest to replace. Kepler is 1 year removed from a 4.4 WAR season and he provides back-up in CF. He is also 1 ½ younger than Rosario and had been trending up until this crazy year. He likely would have been tendered a contract. Polanco is probably the most likely to have been tendered a contract because he plays a premium position and he too was great before the Covid season.

Donaldson was not a Twin in 2019 but he was healthy and produced a 900 OPS over 659 AB. He could be a big boost. How about Sano? His OPS went from 923 in 2019 to 757. He was a beast in 2019. Not so much in 2020.

2 keys …. 1) Team spending is going to be a product of how each team assess the impact of Covid on revenue. Dateline did an hour special on Covid Vaccines a couple days ago. Dateline interviewed CEOs of the three companies closest to distributing vaccines. The FDA rules on Pfizer's drug in 2 weeks. IF APPROVED, distribution to font-line health workers and senior care facilities would start immediately. Mass distribution to the general public won’t happen until mid-year. Administering all of those shots will take months so the full impact won’t be felt until the end of the year. 2) Company budgets are a product of projected revenue. Based on Dateline’s report, I would guess the Best case scenario is gate receipts are down by 1/2 which is roughly $60M. Businesses NEVER spend the same when facing revenue reductions of this scale. Neither does any responsible adult when managing personal finances. We can dream but this dream is not coming true.

Above Hendricks and Hand? MLB trade rumors estimates were 4.3-5.7M which is about the same as what they had for Taylor Rogers. What do you think it would take to get him? I am thinking about reworking my plan with him in it.

We had a front office this resembled these remarks and most people here felt (correctly) the game had passed them by. It's just not nearly that simple and it never was that simple. Team's have become much better at evaluating potential and sustainability and I don't would like our team to among the most sophisticated in their analysis as opposed to the most simplistic.

IMO this is an over simplification. We know $$ are going to be a little tighter this year. You are not accounting for the dollar difference between Rooker and Rosario being redeployed. Rooker and $10M toward Odorizzi >>> than Rosario or Rooker + Tijuan Walker + Clippard (type) >>>> Rosario.

I hear ya Doc but let's at least look at this from a couple of angles. 2020 is not a great basis of comparison. Let's use 2019 when the team was great offensively as our basis of comparison. Since then we added Donaldson and Rosario was pretty average with a wRC+ of 103 in 2019. Do I want to put a rookie in the 4 hole? No! However, I think one of the Rookies can do that or better than 103 and I think we can find a suitable hitter for that role. Perhaps even Cruz because we have several guys that could hit 1-3. Perhaps we add someone like Schwarber who had a really bad 2020 but so did some other really good players. He had an OPS of 871 in 2019 and 823 in 2018. He might even make more sense than Cruz if he is the bridge to Larnach/Kirilloff.

Moving AAA here is big. For starters, it has to be advantageous in terms of really knowing what's going on in terms of managing the final stages of development for players that reach this level. Of course, it also makes it much easier to give guys that are close a look for a few days or even utilize them as an expanded roster.

I am focused on production after the trade deadline in 2018 because I believe what occurred at that point is particularly relevant to Rosario's value. The league adjusted and Eddie has demonstrated he has no answer. Since that period of time. Kepler has been better offensively and considerably more valuable defensively. Since 7/31/2018 Rosario / Kepler HRs – 45 / 45 wRC+ 99 / 114 OPS - 774/889 wOBA 321/342 SLG – 477/479 RBI – 164/130 Kepler is better in every category with the exception of RBIs. Kepler takes better ABs. Kepler does not throw to the wrong base. Kepler does not make stupid base running mistakes. Therefore, people are not frustrated with Kepler like many of us are with Rosario. I thought it went without saying that Kepler's considerably higher WAR was a product of defensive contribution. That was meant as just one factor why some of us are more satisfied with Kepler vs Rosario.

The criticism of Rosario is recent. Rosario was truly great for a half season but he has been mediocre at best since the 1st half of 2018. His horrid plate discipline, base running errors, and defensive mistakes make him a target for criticism. Kepler has none of these issues and his offensive numbers are better than Rosario's over the past couple of seasons. Kepler is a more complete player and his WAR is more than double Rosario's WAR over the past two seasons. This is why Kepler is not criticized IMO.

Great post Doc. I was looking for the "double like" button. The Dodgers have exercised patience and in doing so put a great product on the field for several years before winning a WS. They are also positioned to be great for the foreseeable future. It would sure be nice to not to go through stretches of 90-100 loss seasons. The Dodgers did not trade away any top prospects until Mookie Betts which is as about a sure thing as you can get. Take a look at how they developed this roster and you find 3 position players that would probably result in posts here accusing the FO of dumpster diving. I am referring to Turner, Muncy and Taylor. The other top position players before Betts arrival were home grown. Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, and most recently Will Smith. Of course, they have Gavin Lux waiting in the wings. They have not produced quite as many pitchers as Cleveland but they have been much better than us. Kershaw and Buehler are elite. May and Gonsolin look like he is going to be quite good too. May was a 3rd rounder and Gonsolin was a 9th rounder. Urias was an international draft at $450K. Not cheap but not a big dollar guy either. This is how you build a consistent winner. The twins can't afford to keep players like Kershaw and then pay for Betts while way over spending for Jansen. However, we would have a great team if we drafted, developed, and found a few under valued players like the Dodgers have over the last several years.

The failure rate / production of top free agent RPs has been extremely high and the market is going to adjust.

Remember Phil Hughes. The extended him long before it was necessary and those dollars could have been invested much more productively elsewhere.

I look back at how much Gonzalez played and I hope they don't go cheap on the utility role. Someone like Profar or maybe even La Stella would be great. Is Pillar really an upgrade over the younger player in Cave who still might have some upside? Caves career OPS is 65 pts higher. My preference would be Rooker as opening day starter and Kirilloff / Larnach compete to push Rooker to DH / 1B

Love Maeda but extending a SP turning 35 at the end of their contract is a horrible idea. Maybe if they had Kershaw / Verlander or Scherzer but Maeda does not fit in that group.

I would do this in a heartbeat but why would Buxton accept. The only way he does not get more than $10M/year is if he has an injury that keeps him out for an extended period. He gets one guaranteed year at $10M which could end up being an absolute bargain. The $33M would have to be guaranteed for there to be any chance he accepts, IMO. For me, a piece factor in extending Buxton is how the FO sees the probability of Lewis sticking at SS. I guess he could end up at 3B but I would think his next greatest value would be CF.

I am not a huge Sano fan and he struggled in the shortened 2020 season. However, so did many other good players. In the last full season (2019) Sano had a 923 OPS and a wRC+ of 137. He hit a HR ever 12.9 ABs. Rosario’s highest OPS & wRC+ for a season is 836 / 117. In 2019, had an OPS of 800 and a wRC+ of 103 in 2019. He hit a HR every 18.4 ABs. Sano showed in 2019 he was able to adapt to the adjustments the league made in pitching him. He ranked 68th out of 273 players with 300+ ABs in plate discipline which was the best on the team. Rosario’s plate discipline was not only the worst on the ream, he was 268th. He was just as bad in 2020. Only 8 players with 150+ ABs had worse plate discipline. I don’t know for sure Sano will bounce back when we back to normal or closer to normal but at least he has demonstrated the desire an ability to adjust to the league. Eddie continues to demonstrate he is unwilling or unable to adjust to the league and he is very unlikely to be above average without better plate discipline.

I agree if he can be signed to a team friendly deal. However, I don't see that coming together before the arbitration deadline. If it comes down to Rooker / Kirilloff or Larnach + $10M allocated to a free agent vs resigning Rosario, the team is better of with one of the prospects or even Cave and $10M allocated to a free agent, IMO. It's also possible the FO will gamble that Covid vaccines will be widely distributed by spring and we will have a normal season. It seems unlikely they would make that assumption but the equation would change in that case.

I like Seth’s plan. It has by far the greatest probability of being executed. Profar is a great fit. His plan also facilitates bringing on Kirilloff and/or Larnach which has great value IMO. I might be inclined to invest the Brad Hand money elsewhere. I think he is a very good RP but it’s hard to ignore the failure rate among high-end free agent RPs. Between 2017-2018 there were 21 free Agent RPs signed to contracts with an AAV of over $7.5M. Their combined WAR for the past 3 years is 7.5. The two highest in terms of Fwar were Andrew Cashner (2.5) and Zach Britton (2.4) All of the others combined produced an average of .14 Fwar. It’s really hard to look at that recent history and not believe those funds would likely be used more productively elsewhere. Nick’s plan would be great if you could pull it off. However, it is extremely hard to imagine a World Series team trading a top of the rotation starter with 3 years of team control. They would require an absolute haul. Probably a Chris Sale type haul. Moncada was a better prospect than Kirilloff and the White Sox got Michael Kopech in that deal. Our equivalent would be Balazovic or Duran and they are not even close in terms of prospect rating. Of course, the Sox got a couple other prospect in this deal as well. Luis Alexander has a FV of 40, same as Rooker. I don’t think Snell is equivalent to Sale but I would not be surprised if the Rays asking price was similar. John’s plan centered around getting Bauer places too much importance on one guy for my liking and I agree with Nick and Seth that he has been good more often than great. Also, any plan based on signing the only high-end starter on the market should include a plan B even if you are the Yankees or Dodgers. In the past 20 years, these pitchers have gone to teams in the top 7-8 in revenue almost exclusively. The only exception has been the Nationals and the Nationals could pay for Bauer twice with the revenue advantage they have over the Twins.

He is worth a lot more in trade with 2 years of control vs 1 so it makes perfect sense they would test his willingness to extend before the last year of his contract. In addition, some players are going to be less inclined the closer they get to free agency. Having said this ... trading him for an established player(s) is not easy. Anyone interested in trading for him would do so because they are in win now mode. What team is giving up front line pitching when they are in that mode? I don't see us trading for position players. We have a plethora of outfield talent. Replacing any of the infielders would not be enough of an upgrade to make it a net gain losing Buxton in CF.

It would be interesting to see a comparison of fastball / breaking ball percentages thrown. It seemed to me opposing pitchers threw more breaking balls, especially when ahead in the count. IMO, the league adjusted to the Twins aggression. There were 203 players with 150 or more ABs in 2020. We had six players with 150+ ABs. Here is how they ranked for swinging at pitches outside the zone. 60-Kepler 66-Polanco 103-Gonzalez 111-Sano 142-Cruz 195-Rosario

I was thinking pretty much the same thing as Doc. It starts with Odorizzi. I don't see them reaching an agreement with Odorizzi quickly. I am betting the current asking price is more than the Twins are willing to pay. They are going to allow him to go out and determine his market and then make a determination if they want to match. That process could drag on long enough that another deal may present itself. Morton on a 1yr deal for example.

IDK ... It's already pretty abnormal with Strohman and Gausman accepting Qualifying Offers. Hand's option being declined is unusual as well.

I was thinking the same thing in terms of a 3 year deal but not just where Odorizzi is concerned. There should be some great deals to be made. Landing a couple guys worthy of a 3 year deal almost certainly means a substantial loss this year. However, there is a reasonable pitch to be made to ownership. The FO would have to show a 3 year financial plan that demonstrates flexibility in years 2-3. Option years would help validate this plan. It's possible 3 year deals could be made this year that represent enough savings in years 2-3 to make it worthwhile to take the hit this year. Tijuan Walker is another guy that might make sense on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option. I know this year was a SSS but it seemed like he finally was healthy and got it together. Anyone else think he might make sense?

The Saints have a good thing going so it's hard to say if $20M is a good business decision when we don't have all the facts. 1) What would be the salary savings? 2) What level of price increase can be made will maintaining attendance? 3) Can seating be expanded? 4) Are there other revenue sources associated with MLB affiliation? 5) Are the Twins willing to contribute? They have some cost savings. Would it build fan loyalty and increase attendance of MLB games after seeing players at AAA?