Major League Ready

Nope. I just looked in my crystal ball. Lewis is going have an OPS around 1000 in the minors and wow the baseball world with his improvement at SS. He is our starting SS next year. BTW ... Kirilloff comes up the 1st of June and wins rookie of the year. While I am at it... Canterino and Sands are so good that we have a hard time finding enough innings for them / Balazovic and Duran who are also killing it at AAA. Might as well dream big!

Why do so many fans think any FO can just sign a guy if that’s what they want to do? Cruz is not signing until the DH for both leagues is completely dead. Constructing a roster is also a very fluid. I am sure they have been working multiple scenarios. The available budget and priorities change with every move or failure to sign someone they covet. Saying why don’t they just sign him is grossly simplistic take. Rooker had a 933 OPS at AAA. He has performed better and at a higher level than any of our other prospects. He also performed in his brief stint at the ML level. Fans like shiny objects. If he had been a top pick posters here would be lobbying for him. He has earned his shot. How many people saw Arais getting here as soon as he did and performing as well as he has performed? Signing a LF when you have 3 top prospects needing an opportunity would be exceptionally poor roster management IMO. I have no idea what they will do specifically but it would make sense they are going to use LF to give multiple guys an opportunity.

He could be "nearly as valuable" as a CFer if he does not stick at SS.

Let’s look at 2019 production rank on the 2019 team in the order you mentioned. Gonzales – 9th among position players in WAR / 14th in OPS. Rosario – 11th in WAR / 9th in OPS Adrianza – 13th in WAR / 13th in OPS Cruz – 2nd in WAR / 1st in OPS Gonzales / Rosario are exactly the type of players that should be moved if you want to get better. I sure hope we can come up with a better performing utility guy for what Gonzales and probably have enough left over to sign Clippard. No brainer. Eddie Rosario is an average MLB player. Average players don’t hurt but they don’t make a true contender. Kirilloff / Larnach & Rooker are all capable of delivery a higher wRC+ or OPS than Rosario has produced since the 2nd half of 2018. I would definitely take Kirilloff or even Rooker + whatever we get with the $10M saved over Rosario. Kirilloff + La Stella + Clippard or equivalent is far more valuable than Rosario which is why he is not here. Adrianza is a solid bench player but he can certainly be replaced and probably improved upon. Cruz is the only real difference maker. As I mentioned in the post that incensed you to the point of dropping the F bomb, we added Donaldson and Maeda since the 2019 team was so successful. With Donaldson and Maeda, the 2021 team certainly has the capacity to be as good or better. It’s also not over with Cruz. He could very well be here for 2021. You can't just ignore the Donaldson amd Maeda add. Adrianza and Gonzales are easily replaced and Rosario has not been a difference maker since the 2nd half of 2018. Could he return to that form. Perhaps, but he looks incapable of adapting. His approach is horrid and he is never going to be great without better plate discipline. If invested reasonably well, the money saved of Gonzales and Rosario will only add to the ceiling provided by that core from 2019. If they do resign Cruz and spend the money saved, the 2021 has a higher ceiling than the 2019 team.

We just signed Donaldson We have 3 good prospects that can play LF. We have Sano / Garver / Kirilloff for 1B There are a number of ways to better spend $20M plus whatever it takes in trade to get him. Plus, whatever problem(s) you solve are back again next year. A Bryant type move (rental) is a move you make when your one piece away and he is that piece. We are not one player away and Kris Bryant is down the list of players who would be a final piece for this team. Hard pass..

I have been asking myself the same questions. I thought they would resign Adrianza as the 11th man and that would leave lots of options for the 10th man. Seems to me the key is coming up with a back-up SS. Maybe they are thinking that is Gordon. Perhaps thy are thinking Gordon / Blankenhorn and resigning Cruz and a BP arm.

Good article, Nick. The problem with trying to figure out roster construction this year is that we have little idea which prospects made improvements and how much they improved. While not tested in normal games, I could see pitching prospects making big strides. What if they have a couple pitching prospects that made big strides and want to start rotating them in for a look relatively early in the season? It might not be the obvious (Duran / Balazovic). There has been some rumbling that Canterino has improved. Having our AAA team in St. Paul also adds a twist. For example, they could promote Celestino to AAA and have him available anytime Buxton is out for more than a game or two. They can also have Kirilloff / Larnach and Gordon on standby. So what if the FO is thinking they have prospects that will be ready to go in the first couple months? It stands to reason that the supply of good SS will create a buying opportunity. Semien and Gregorius are not much of an improvement defensively but they would provide depth at SS. I don't think we get hurt adding one of the three. They have Taylor Rogers / Tyler Duffey / Jorge Alcala / Cody Stashak / Dakota Chalmers / Caleb Thielbar and Hansel Robles. Not sure what they expect from Colina. I am thinking at least one more RP unless they had some break throughs last year that change the landscape.

I am with you with regards to which Ozuna do you get which is why I added the "depending on cost". If he gets paid based on huge production last year during a 60 game season, I am with you on there being room for considerable regret. However, isn't that the case with a lot of free agents. They tend to get paid based level achieved not a sustained level. BTW ... I am assuming his defensive liability will lead to a discounted value but we will see.

This is how you build a powerhouse. Draft and develop. Not a free agent among them. Tony Gonsolin - Round 9 Dustin May - Round 3 Julio Urias – International (450K Signing Bonus) Walker Buehler – 24th overall pick Clayton Kershaw – 7th overall pick On the position player side they developed Bellinger / Seager / Smith / Pederson Verdugo and pick-ed up Muncy / Singer for nothing and there is Justin Turner. The Dodger FO and the rest of the organization has done a phenomenal job and they are going to have a long run in contention.

He would not get "a greater sum over a longer commitment" if MLB GMs believed this was even remotely accurate. Rosario’s best OPS+ for a season was 117. That is one point better than Ozuna’s 3rd best season. Ozuna’s best OPS+ (2020) was 179 which was 3rd in all of MLB. He also produced an OPS+ of 143 in 2017 which was the same year as Rosario’s best (117). Rosario had a couple stretches where he was truly great but he has never done it for more than half a season. I seriously doubt the contracts they each get reflect that MLB teams think they are the same player. Depending on cost, it could make sense to go Ozuna instead of Cruz. He can help in LF until our prospects take over.

I am assuming the reference was to Robles. He signed about 3 weeks ago.

Height in a receiver has a very distinct advantage. NFL QBs throw if enough precision to put the ball in a zone where only the taller player can reach it. SS movement is much more about quickness and length does not promote quickness. Reach can’t be overcome with quickness in football. It can in baseball. I am assuming the draft philosophy is that these bigger but athletic prospects project to be power hitting 2B & 3B that can still be great defenders at those positions. The fact that an occasional 6’4 guy sticks at SS does not diminish Rdehring’s point that taller guys are less likely to stick. Likelihood refers to the portion of the population, right. So, what is the height distribution among top shortstops? The first list are the highest WAR SS from 2019 & 2020. It’s not cumulative, I took the top guys from both years. 17 of the top 25 are 6’1 or under. The 2nd list are the guys that rated the highest defensively. 8 of the top 12 are 6”0 and under. This is not exactly sophisticated data gathering. However, this sample and history going much further back suggests that a player growing to 6’4 or above likely means the odds of being a top defensive SS are very low. Jean Segura - 5’10 Francisco Lindor – 5’11 Miguel Rojas – 5’11 José Iglesias – 5’11 Jorge Polanco – 5”11 Javier Baez – 6’0 Marcus Semien - 6’0 Paul DeJong – 6’0 Kevin Newman – 6’0 Bo Bichette – 6’0 Willy Adames – 6’0 Xander Bogaerts – 6’1 Tim Anderson – 6’1 Gleybor Torres – 6’1 Jonathan Villar – 6’1 Adalberto Mondesi – 6’1 Danby Swanson – 6”1 Trevor Story – 6’2 Trea Turner – 6’2 Amed Rosario – 6’2 Didi Gregorious – 6’2 Nick Ahmed – 6’2 Fernando Tatis Jr. – 6’3 Andrelton Simmons – 6’3 Corey Seager – 6’4 Paul DeJong – 6’0 Javier Baez – 6’0 Trevor Story – 6’2 Andrelton Simmons – 6’3 Marcus Semien - 6’0 Adalberto Mondesi – 6’1 Miguel Rojas – 5’11 Francisco Lindor – 5’11 José Iglesias – 5’11 Nick Ahmed – 6’2 Willy Adames – 6’0 Elvis Andrus – 6’0

Abreau was awesome last year but Sano's OPS was almost 100 points higher than Abreau in 2019. Sano is heading into his prime and Abreau is leaving his behind. It's funny, I caught heat early on for criticizing Sano. Then, he really improved his approach and discipline in 2019. Subsequently, he was a beast. Now I find myself rooting for the guy to repeat or improve that 2019 season. I have always admired Donaldson and he killed us often. I sure would to see some of his best stuff now that he is in Twins uniform. Those two guys going strong at the same time would be something especially if the 2019 version of Kepler was batting between them.

If I remember correctly Sano was a SS when we signed him. It's likely the best athletes and best fielders are SS at this age. Lots of them end up at 2B or 3B.

I wondered the same a few years ago when some posters here were complaining that we were not signing the most expensive International prospects. It made me wonder what evidence there was that it was a good strategy to sign 16 y/o players to huge bonuses. I wondered if it made more sense to spread it out. So, I took a list of the highest signing bonuses of all time and compiled the results. The success stories were few and far between. Sano is among the most productive top $ signings. The vast majority never made it to MLB baseball or were pedestrian at best. I thought I posted the results here but perhaps my memory is off. At any rate, when we have a $6M pool to work with we can sign a $2.2M guy and have plenty to spread around. However, the failure ratio of these really high bonus guys is so high that we should not be upset if our team does more spreading it around then signing "quality" as some have put it. "Quality" where quality is defined as becoming a well above average MLB player, is just to hard to assess at 16 years of age.

All true, especially the part about the off-season not being over. Also, we should keep in mind that nobody predicted (even here) the 2019 Twins would win 101 games. A lot of guys finally played to their potential. The key guys are still here. It’s more likely that guys who have proven they can do it bounce back then guys who have never proven it breaking out. So, there is room for optimism. Yes we have significant loss from that team (Cruz) but we have added Maeta and Donaldson. Yes, Rosario is also gone but he was 10th in WAR among position players in 2019. He hit 32 bombs but overall he was an average offensive player several well above average players. He can and will be replaced. We need to fill a couple holes, starting with a SP. That’s going to happen. Next, the FO needs to decide if we are best served by bring in a SS or getting a high quality utility player. Finally one more BP arm. Paxton and Kluber are intriguing bounce back candidates. Odorizzi would be fine too. Sign one of them. Then, add a top SS or a utility player (Hernandez or Profar) and Archie Bradley. That stacks up pretty well to Lynn / Hendricks and Eaton.

Has there been any news regarding How much Lewis progressed defensively while working at the alternate site last summer? I supposed any report by the Twins is going to be somewhat propaganda but it would still be nice to hear they are happy with his progress. One of the FA SS makes sense if they think he is still a full year away from being ready.

Name / Age / Free Agent / AAV Yasmani Grandal -- 32 -- 2024 -- $18,250,000 Dallas Keuchel -- 33 -- 2024 -- 18,666,666 Jose Abreu -- 34 -- 2023 -- 17,000,000 Liam Hendriks -- 32 -- 2025 -- 12,666,666 Lance Lynn -- 34 -- 2022 -- 8,000,000 The $74,583,332 invested in these 5 players is 61% of payroll. After this year they will $66.5M invested in 4 players 33 or older. There is always the possibility this works out but what are the odds? I am glad to see our FO is not placing this much emphasis on aging players. I share others concern over Donaldson but at least he is the only player we are invested in over 30.

It's really hard to compare anyone to Cruz in this context. Cruz was very good until he turned 35 when he became phenomenal. I doubt there has ever been a player that improved their career stats between the age 35-40. Trying to compare Rooker is hard to do. Does anyone remember the scene in Money Ball when Billy Beane explains to the staff they can't think in terms of replacing Giambi with one player. I think that applies here. It's not if we can replace him. Can we build a better team by investing elsewhere?

How do we trade for a free agent?

Trading good prospects for 1 year rentals is horrible asset management. In this particular case, the asset is a SS and the free agent market has multiple good options this year and next. I am assuming the cost of the free agent SSs is going to be suppressed this year between 2021 revenue concerns and big market teams waiting for several great options to become available next year.

wRC+ takes ball park into account. Story playing half his games in Coor's field is considered has a significant impact on wRC+

Thanks for this info. This is encouraging. There has been crumbs of info suggesting Canterino's stuff improved during the Covid break. It would really help the cause if a SP prospect or two stepped up to join Balazovic and Duran as high ceiling prospects.

Again, this is a bubble view. If they do nothing else, I agree completely, that they are less of a factor and the twins benefit this year. I doubt that is the case. Cleveland / Tampa / Oakland have all shuffled assets in this fashion in the past. It's a better buyers market in free agency than we have seen in a long time. They have the great pitching and a good infield with upside. Outfielders are the easiest asset to find in free agency and probably the most reliable. There is a lot of off-season left. IDK what Cleveland will do but I think the outline I provided is very doable and within a very modest payroll. My bet is they take advantage of this market. Even if they don't, they substantially improved their team beyond 2021. Fans who put huge weight on the current year will have a fit but that kind of micro view is a good way to always be mediocre. GMs can't afford that point of view if they want to keep their job. I guess the bottom line is that at a minimum they will be better after this year. Best case scenario for them they land some very good players for the next 2-3 years via free agency and remain a contender now and into the future.

Why does everyone presume Cleveland is just rolling over? They have positioned their team to take advantage of the extremely unusual free agent market. IDK if they will just cut payroll but they could easily afford to sign … One or even two of Marcel Ozuna / Joc Pederson / Eddie Rosario / Michael Brantley? A free agent 1B / OF combo guy with a good bat. Jake Odorizzi gives them a significantly younger SP than Carrasco. If they can’t land Odorizzi, there are a number of other SPs they could bring in for depth. Add 2 established RPs This could be done with high quality players for $40-50M or less. Their total payroll would be $75-85M and their offense would be substantially improved. How does this impact the Twins? Cleveland will be more likely to be competitive over the next several years. They also remove the risk associated with a SP in their age 34-36 seasons. Carrasco has been good but I would not argue if there strategy was to reinvest those payroll dollars in younger players. Plus, they have room in the budget going forward. These decisions impact the team for years and a lot pf people are focused on the moment and not even considering their options.