Major League Ready

BB Reference has Donaldson at exactly 2 WAR and Fangraphs only 1 WAR. Donaldsons wRC+ is 105 and his OPS is 714 so I don't see how that equates to 4 WAR. Urshela's wRC+ is 110 and his OPS is 728. BB Reference has him at 1.1 WAR. Urshela has 35 RBI and Dnaldson has 33. Does anyone know the differences in their calculations that could account for such a large variance between BB Reference and Fangraphs?

Anyone know what the deal is with Alcala?

Maybe I am just being optimistic but I look at the transformation / development of the team over last year at it’s looking like an upswing for the next several years to me. They are in the midst of establishing a number of young position players that sure look like they will improve the team. Kirilloff / Miranda and Gordon for that matter are performing admirably. Since 6/1, their respective OPS are 825 / 883 and 860. I am going to assume Lewis recovers which will give us a high performing / low-cost infield for the next several years. Of course, we will still have Arraez and Polanco. Those two have an OPS since 6/1 of 891 and 941. They extended Buxton and Kepler is playing quite well. Larnach was a considerably better defender than most expected and he has shown to be an impact bat although he will need to make some adjustments. That’s a very good group of position players and they also have Matt Walner crushing it at AA. He should be here sometime next year. On the pitching side, Duran and Jax sure look like long-term BP fixtures and it’s just not that hard to come up with a couple free agent RPs in the off-season. I expect Canterino will be in the BP sometime next year too. Gray is back next year. Ryan / Ober and Winder have established themselves as solid SPs and Winder looks to have some upside. Smeltzer will provide value as SP depth or long relief. Paddack and Maeda will be back next year and there is a reasonable chance a couple of the BP arms like Megill that are getting a shot right now become reliable RPs. That’s a significant amount of long-term talent being established that would indicate a team on the rise to me. They are investing playing time in these guys and that investment is starting to pay off. Plus, they are going to be in an enviable financial position to add free agent talent. They got rid of Donaldson's contract and Sano's option will be declined. So, they could easily spend $65M/yr on free agents next year and they don’t need to fill holes in the rotation or position players with the exception of catcher where in previous years their spending was allocated to patching holes in the rotation. In other words, they will be positioned to fill out the team with high impact free agents instead of filling out the roster.

What is the basis for your assumption that the Twin’s odds are better this year than they will be the next 2-3 years?

This is all a matter of opinion, but I sway your way. I believe there are going to be two or three SPs that are #2/3 types that will be important for the next few years. Ryan and Winder look like they could be really important pieces and there are a few other guys who could be similar. Then, we have Jax and Alcala who have a chance to be the type of guys that are not spectacular but very effective and therefore important. I guess it's a matter of if we define core players as the stars of the team or players who are around for several years and perform consistently. I am hoping they use the opportunity provided by all the young talent to add a core SP via free agency. So, I am going to throw in a future core player in the form of Joe Musgrove or Carlos Rodon. Yes, I know they have been reluctant to give out long contracts to SPs but they have never been in this position financially. The only other place they need to spend is the BP. So, let a guy dream.

So, you're saying that sports media should quit doing the assessment of how well teams do in trades until years later when it's all played out. No doubt those hundreds/thousands of conversations are speculative just like thousands of preseason conversations about which team will win contend. However, it's perfectly reasonable to value the return based on what is known at the time. Was it a top 10 prospect or an unknown? We can measure the relative return. I think any reasonable person understands the judgment is based on conjecture.

You obviously don't understand. This is not a woulda situation it's a recap of the options because there are multiple possible scenarios where Berrios could still be part of this team. The recap illustrates that there is not a scenario where keeping Berrios would have made sense given his current level of performance. Obviously, the timeframe involved is the next 6 1/2 years so we won't know definitely until his contract has elapsed.

I agree the dollars wouldn't get in the way if it were a good value proposition. However, every business decision has an investment vs payoff component which is why I framed it this way. I could have left out the dollars because it would be a poor decision if it cost nothing.

If he is crushing it in rehab, it will be an interesting decision. Do they trade him or put him on the roster? My guess is they trade him. They already have Kirilloff / Miranda and Arrez for 1B. Anything short of crushing it and I think they have to DFA him or trade him while taking on all or most of his salary and getting very little in return.

In the context of future preference, there are a few scenarios to consider. We could have rode Berrios through this year and let him go at the end of the year. Alternatively, we could trade similar players and have Castillo or Montas through next year. So, not only would we get a pitcher who is performing vastly better, we would have that SP for next year. We also could have traded him for one of the rentals who are performing much better than Berrios. That would cost less in prospect capital than what we got for Berrios. We also could have given him 7 years. I would much rather that investment plus any additional $$ required and invest in Rodon / Taillon or Musgrove. All three look waaaaay better than Berrios given the current state of performance for all four players. Absolutely no way another team would give him the deal Toronto made at the end of this season unless he is superb the remainder of the year. I would take any of these options over Berrios in a heartbeat.

By that logic we certainly don't want Frankie Mantas who has 3 wins and 9 losses.

You are living in the past. At present, Berrios sucks!

We will have to agree to disagree. I think it makes absolutely no sense to bitch about not having a guy who has performed poorly. Patrick Corbin was a well-established, top of the rotation SP. Now he sucks. Blake Snell won the Cy Yound award and he has been medioce for 3 years while in his prime. There are many similar scenarios. If Berrios turns it around .... Great, then complain about not having him but as of this moment, it defies any logic to suggest we would have missed his poor play.

I would love to hear that conversation with Jim Pohlad. Hey Jim, what do you think of this idea. Let’s bring in Nelson Cruz who did very little for the Rays last year when they traded away a very good SP for him. It will cost us $4M in salary plus a $3M buyout and prospect capital. Prospect(s) plus $7M Jim Pohlad ... How has he been hitting. Falvey ... wRC+ of 88. However, he has been better lately. Since June 1st his wRC+ is 107. Pohlad ... So, what are your options without Cruz. Falvey ... We could rotate Arraez / Kirilloff and Miranda at DH. Pohlad ... How have they done lately (since June 1) Falvey .... 155/144/133 respectively. Pohlad .... Derek, have you been drinking? Of course, none of this takes into consideration that the other players can play a defensive position. The FO would consider this for 30 seconds or less because that's about how long it takes to realize the information above.

SWR has 106 IP at AA and he is 21 yrs / 9 months old so it's not at all alarming he has not been promoted to AAA. Let's also be cognizant of the fact that Berrios is performing very poorly. He has an ERA of 5.72 and negative WAR. It's hard for me to understand why people are still wining about losing Berrios when he has been very poor. Let's bitch if he is great going forward but it makes little sense to complain about losing him at the moment.

Game is tied 2-2 in the 8th or 9th with two outs and nobody on. Who do you want to take the AB instead of Buxton? Runner in scoring position, I would take Arraez / Correa or Kirilloff but the scenarios in which we are looking to trust someone are not all the same.

I agree in general but I would not agree it has not been done. The Royals won the WS after Shields was gone and they did not have an Ace. Their top 4 SPs had a total of 7.7 WAR. Perhaps the more pertinent issue is that Berrios is definitely not an ace and even considering him a "strong" #2. is a little generous.

Arraez / Correa / Buxton / Kirilloff / Polanco

Bednar keeps coming up but he is not even arbitration eligible until 2024 so you wouldn't think the Pirates would trade him unless someone offers an absurd return.

Wallner looks like the break-out guy among position players this year. He started slow but since the middle of May his wRC+ is 182 and his strike outs have come down to a manageable 28.4%. He is hitting .317 / slugging .669 and his OPS is 1.137.

20 days is the max rehab assignment for position players. 30 days for pitchers.

What are the chances a contender would give up a good RP for Sano?

They are on the hook for the rest of his salary and the buyout, so they are not really out anything if they pay his salary / buyout and trade him if that netted any sort of return. They could also trade him for partial salary relief or even just to get rid of the buyout cost. All of this won't matter because no team is going to bother if he does not look considerably better than he did preinjury.

Sanchez is not getting many DH bats now that Polanco and Kirilloff are back. They will be taken by one of Arraez / Kirilloff or Miranda.

One thing is for sure if Ober gets healthy. Someone needs to go to the BP at that's without bringing back Winder. The ideal scenario would be if they could pull-off a 3-team trade sending one of Bundy / Archer to a team that would send us a good RP with more than 1 year of control and that team would receive a prospect from the team getting Archer Bundy and we would include a lesser prospect that is on our 40-man. We would still have Winder in case of injury to a SP.