Major League Ready

Been thinking pretty much the same thing but it could be sooner. I don't think the incumbents get more than half the season to prove they belong. We probably see at least one of the guys you mentioned by July 1. It would be a great problem to have if Martin and/or Roden are playing so well that they make it difficult to replace them.

I keep asking myself how that could possibly work. Why would the top teams agree to be devalued by a billion dollars? There has to be an agreement in place, right. According to Chat GPT, there is an agreement that prevents teams from voting to take revenue from high revenue teams. Of course, it's in their best interest to maintain national interest in the game/league but I can't imagine them agreeing to concede enough to make a difference. Then, I ask myself what would be the impact of a floor. If you're a fan of a modest revenue team, they will need to go through rebuild cycles. The best amongst these teams still goes through cycles where they are not competitive. Would we want over-priced mediocre veterans taking roster spots from players that could be part of the solution. There are a handful of people that would be OK with this but not the fans that want to see the organization build a true contender.

I share your concern that they won't commit. They need to have a record payroll and trade a few of their best prospects for immediate help or rebuild. If they rebuild, do it right and tear it down to the studs. Keeping proven players will get you 72 wins instead of 66 wins but it probably costs several wins for several seasons when the team has a chance to contend. They have no chance to contend in 2026. Accept it and make the unpopular decision to do the things necessary to build a contender.

Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue are going to be considerably higher for a team with $325M in revenue vs a team with $650M in revenue. If you consider all the other costs, the Dodgers are going to spend more on personnel and certain other operating costs but not double. They are also not spending anywhere near double on their stadium costs, travel, equipment, office space, etc. They spend less on draft bonuses and International drafts because they typically finish higher in the standings and are allocated less. The clearest way to compare would be to compare revenue rank to payroll rank, If a team ranks 18th in revenue, ranking 18th in payroll would suggest they spend in line with their revenue.

Wouldn't it make more sense in ranking "cheapness" to rank teams payroll as a percentage of revenue or revenue rank vs payroll rank? If your brother makes 300K a year and spends 30K/year on travel and entertainment, and you make $600K and spend $40K on entertainment is your brother more frugal than you? There is no topic talked about more on Twins Daily than the cheap Pohlads. Yet, no Twins writer has every actually provided an actual accounting of their spending vs other teams. You would think, given the vitriol around spending that one of the writers here would like to demonstrate the Pohlad's cheapness with a meaningful illustration of their spending.

I actually totally agree with you and Chpettit19 that it's more likely 70 wins but I thought using an optimistic number kind of drives home the point.

If things go really well and our SPs stay healthy, that sounds like a 75 win team at best. How can that be perfect?

That's a good point. I also am not sure which is why I framed this with "if they continue the rebuild". You are absolutely right that they have not been aggressive with young players. They also have not been aggressive in rebuilding, choosing instead to get into contention by signing mediocre veterans. If they embrace a rebuild, it seems reasonable they would also embrace a more aggressive approach with young players. I guess we will find out next season.

Apparently, you are defining of counting on in 2026 requires that they are on the opening day roster? I suppose that's one definition. It makes sense if you think they are going to contend. If they are rebuilding, the opening day roster is MUCH less important than the end of season roster. When any team rebuilds, it's a transition over a couple of years. The Twins will be looking to transition a significant portion of their team. It is highly likely that Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Culpepper are part of 2026. Gabriel Gonzalez has a a good shot and someone like Mendez, Fedko or even Roden could end up at 1B. Almost the entire BP and Mick Abel. Can we count Andrew Morris? nearly the entire BP will be "young / inexperienced guys. Of course, there is a very good chance there are trades made for other "young guys". If you look beyond opening day, this team will likely go through a massive turnover in the roster. It will be fun to look back in October and see how much the team has changed.

That would be the go big or go home version of a rebuild,

We would be relying on someone getting hurt in the first month and the back-up role means 1/3 the ABs of a starter . If an injury happens in the first 6 weeks in the result is effectively what others are saying about holding Rodriguez back a month or two. Putting Roden in a B/U role greatly diminishes the opportunity to evaluate him. What do we say all the time about good prospects? It makes no sense to have them up to ride the bench. If you want to come to the conclusion he is no longer a good prospect after 150ABs, go ahead and replace him but that is very premature IMO. Many a player has struggled over their first couple hundred ABs and went on to be very good players. There is a version of scenario you propose that I like. That would be if Roden gets some time at 1B and handles it well while his bat improves. However, that scenario also requires a couple months to play out. It would be ideal of Roden starts hitting and Jenkins or Rodriguez is raking, Roden moves to the primary 1B/back-up OFer and Jenkins or Rodriguez takes an OF spot. That would be a major improvement in the team.

I think the primary difference in our approach is that you are looking at what makes the team better immediately and I am looking for the solution that shortens the time required to rebuild and also the overall product produced by the rebuild. They don't need to trade Erod right now unless they are trying to contend right now. By that logic we should trade Jenkins and GG as well? If they think they can win this year, that's a good approach. Very low probability of success but the actions fit the strategy. If they are trying to build a contender, burning assets rather than methodically evaluating and protecting those assets is a very bad idea. If they embrace rebuilding, they can give Martin, Roden, and Wallner a couple months of evaluation at the ML level while simultaneously continue to evaluate the readiness of Jenkins, Erod, and GG. They can then make a much more informed decision with plenty of time left in the season to transition to other the best combination of these six players. That would be the most likely way to end the season with the best possible combination of players.

What do you do with Roden and Wallner. Wallner can DH but Roden is discarded.

They would have to demote (either to the bench or AAA) Martin or Roden. We already have a DH and part-time OFer in Wallner. Martin earned a shot last year. Roden is further along and has performed better across a larger sample size than Rodriguez. We can't complain about guys like Rooker and then discard potentially good players. Their strategy in terms of rebuilding or attempting to contend this year is also a central issue. If they are trying to win now, putting the best team on the field for opening day should be the goal. If they continue with the rebuild, waiting 1-2 months to bring up Rodriguez is of no consequence in terms of contending. It does however provide the team a couple months to evaluate Martin and Roden to determine if they are starters, or bench players. It also allows them to determine which player among the trio of Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez is ready to play at the major league level instead of just rushing someone up. If all that is not enough, burning a year of control in a players prime for 1 month when it's questionable if they are ready is incredibly poor asset management.

If there was ever a year that the Twins should take a shot at a rule 5 RP, this would be it. Give Roden or Fedko a shot at 1B. They have as good or better chance of sticking than anyone they could get in rule 5.

I am not sure I follow. Wouldn't he be less likely to burn an option if they waited until June 1 to see if he demonstrates he was ready? What if it was May 1 like Stringer Bell suggested. Would he be any less likely to burn an option if he were on the opening day roster? I would not make this decision on something that may or may not have any value when I know for certain we will have traded an entire year in his prime for 1 month when he is probably not entirely ready, in a season where we are not likely to contend. Just not remotely worth it IMO.

I think 2-3 months makes the most sense. Roden had better AAA numbers than Rodriguez and you can’t start them both. Someone has to sit on the bench. Why not give Roden a shot for 2-3 months while simultaneously giving Rodriguez a chance to prove he is ready and should be next in line. Perhaps GG is tearing the cover off the ball and shows he should be next up. It also makes no sense to burn a year of control on a high ceiling prospect that is not fully ready, especially in a year where the chances of contending are exceptionally low. You would be trading one month of a player who’s readiness is questionable for one year of that player in their prime. The benefit is far less than the cost. Of course, that's just my opinion.

If Falvey actually thinks he has the personnel to compete it could get weird. I just don’t believe he is that incompetent. Sounds like sticking up for your guys kind of rhetoric but he knows they don’t have the personnel. If he is looking to rebuild, Larnach is traded this winter and it’s not that big of a mystery in terms of where this is likely to go. There are a handful of guys in the mix. Buxton and Martin have starting jobs to begin the season. Wallner / Roden / Outman will compete for the 3rd starting spot. Wallner is probably primarily a DH. One of them will needs to be quite good over the course of the first 2-3 months of the season if Jenkins and/or Rodriquez proves they are ready to move up. Both Jenkins and Rodriquez have more complete games and a higher ceiling. Gonzalez is the wildcard. I could see him talking Wallner's place as DH / part-time OFer at some point but that might be next year. They end the season with Buxton and three of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin / Roden and Gonzalez.

Because he had a wRC+ of 111 last year vs Vazquez 55. It's quite possible he doesn't replicate that 111 wRC+ next year but I like his odds better than Vasquez. If he does, they have 2 more years of control that will work nicely while they transition Tait into the primary catcher role. If he doesn't, they lost a prospect of very marginal value. Sounds like a good risk/return equation to me.

The problem is someone is not going to be given a chance to show it. Buxton is a given. If Wallner, Martin , Wallner, and Roden are the candidates, someone DHs and someone is a bench player. Of course, someone can show it in a bench role but that approach emphasizes winning an extra game in 2026 vs building a contender. Prospects are also less likely to get a chance. What do you do when Jenkins or Rodriguez or Gonzalez show they're ready? Do we want them up in a bench role?

If the goal is to field the best team possible on opening day, Larnach should be part of the team. If the goal is to build a winner, I don’t see Larnach playing a role in that goal. As a matter of fact, he is a hindrance because he would take a roster spot away from a player that could contribute to the team contending down the road. They should non-tender him unless they believe they can trade him which seems like a reasonable possibility. Buxton and Martin are sure bets and Roden / Wallner are relatively safe bets. Outman is probably the 5th man because he can play CF. However, he has until Jenkins is up to earn his keep. He fills a short-term need for now. It will get really interesting if Rodriguez and/or GG are raking in AAA. Larnach just does not fit into this equation if the goal is building a contender.

How are you getting financial information on a private company? It would be great if you could post a link to the source of this information.

Absolutely. It is far and away the most crucial element of success. I just wanted to point out that the premise these teams draft better than others is not all that accurate. They find the most quarters in the couch cushions and they also make more trades for prospects than most teams.

Payroll does not equal the amount paid to players. They have benefits of around $17M according to Spotrac, and another roughly $22-23M in draft / international draft bonuses.

This often-floated idea that the teams producing the most young talent (Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland) are doing so by drafting is misguided. These teams acquire roughly 40% of their young talent from other teams. If we look at the players on the 2025 (97 win) Brewers that produced more than 1.5 WAR, 3 of their top 13 players were drafted, and 2 were international signings. 59% of their WAR was from players acquired from other teams, all but one of them (Yehlich) were unproven when acquired. Of course, they developed those players as well but they didn't do a superior job of drafting. 2025 Brewers (97 wins) Brice Turang Drafted 4.4 William Contreras Acquired 3.6 Sal Frelick Drafted 3.6 Jackson Chourio Intl 2.9 Caleb Durbin Aap 2.6 Isaac Collins Aap 2.6 Christian Yelich Trade 2.4 Freddy Peralta AaP 3.6 Chad Patrick AaP 2.6 Quinn Priester AaP 1.9 Brandon Woodruff Drafted 1.8 Abner Uribe Intl 1.7 Trevor Megill AaP 1.5 Acquired by: Drafted 3 28% International Draft 2 13% Acquired as Prospect 7 52% Trade for Proven 1 7% Free Agent 0 0%