Dman

I would sell off the expiring contracts this July but it isn’t a rebuild. I am going the 2024 Tigers route. They traded off four expiring contracts and let the players in their system have a chance to play. All four played significantly in their first half in #2 starter Jack Flaherty, lefty reliever Andrew Chafin, catcher Carson Kelly and Mark Canha. They replaced Flaherty with an opener and Tyler Hilton and Beau Brieske emerged. Brant Hurter was the lefty reliever. Spencer Torkelson returned from his exile to the minors and had a .945 OPS in August. Dillon Dingler got his feet wet at catcher. I am guessing the plan was to see what they needed for 2025 but it resulted in a couple rounds of playoff baseball.
That means we trade Willi Castro. That will hurt. Not Jack Flaherty hurt but it will hurt. Keaschall will be returning and let’s look at Austin Martin.
We trade lefty specialist Danny Coulombe. That will hurt. The bullpen is very thin. Everyone is healthy and two on the current roster don’t look to be major league ready. Is it time to see Connor Prielipp in a relief role? Maybe not. The plan for a full healthy season is a priority. If not then Funderburk gets off the shuttle and gets a two month consistent shot.
Can they get anything for Paddack? Take what they can get and make sure Festa, Matthews and Woods Richardson have a spot in the rotation the rest of the year.
Can they get anything for France? The return for Canha was little but the open spot gave a chance for Torkelson to earn back some trust. Maybe Clemens gets a good share of 1B. Maybe Julien returns here. What does Keaschall look like at 1B? Miranda’s last stand?
It might mean paying some of the contract for Vazquez but let’s do it. Let’s see Mickey Gasper at  catcher for two months. Teams will run against him. In AAA he gives up a stolen base every 6.5 innings while Camargo is one of the best and gives up a stolen base every 9 innings. It amounts to an extra stolen base every three games. Can his bat make up the difference even if it a stolen base per game at this level? Let’s see about the rest of his game at catcher. Marco Raya had some very positive things to say about Gasper behind the plate.
Bader will hurt too. Will Rodriguez be healthy? Probably not. That leaves an opening for Carson McCusker or Walker Jenkins. They might also send out Keirsey now and bring up Martin. Get Keirsey some at bats for a few weeks and maybe he gets a real shot with the bat when he returns.
Anyone else? Justin Topa is not matching his 2023 season. I would trade him. The bullpen already has holes to fill today. Maybe the return for some of the other players is a failed starter or a blocked minor league reliever they give a chance in the pen for the final two months.
Why not rebuild? There are a few reasons.
The largest is I want the new owners to be able to shape this club. If they want to go for it in the next few years they need Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and to a lesser extent Griffin Jax. Selling this players is easy. New owners wanting to replace them will be hard. The new owners need to be able to set the direction.  The sweet spot for selling is the deadline with 1 season remaining. They have two. The return for them will not be that much less next summer and it gives the Twins a better chance to compete next year. I suppose someone could argue that they may get injured. It is also true that the key prospect we get in return for them this year could get injured. There are some players they need to make decisions on to help build next year’s roster. Many have shown flashes in the majors and shown success in the minors. This winter’s decisions will be more informed if they open these 7 spots. I endorse the Tiger Plan

Amid the trade rumors surrounding Joe Ryan’s true breakout season, there are various fan bases putting out their mock trades to acquire the Twin’s ace before the deadline. In a sellers  market, Minnesota could capitalize on Ryan’s value, which very likely may never be higher, or they could extend Ryan, signifying him as a building block for future Twins teams. So far this season through 17 starts (18 games) Ryan has pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 104.1 innings with good peripherals, which accumulates to a 3.9 bWAR. These are frontline-esque pitching stats, and although Joe Ryan was snubbed from the AL All-Star team, the league is certainly taking notice of his performance. Ryan has been a very good pitcher since his debut in 2021, but he seems to have taken the next step in 2025. Joe Ryan is under control through the 2027 season, so nothing needs to be urgent, but I think it would be wise for the Twins to extend him as soon as possible.
Joe Ryan is currently pitching in his age-29 season and has 2 years of arbitration control following the current campaign. He is making $3 million this season in his first trip through arbitration and has roughly $5.5 million in MLB career earnings thus far. At this point in the season it is difficult to predict arbitration numbers for the offseason, but typically if salaries start low, they stay fairly low in comparison to others. With that being said, for this exercise we will predict Ryan would make $6 million in 2026 arbitration and $10 million in 2027 arbitration.
 
Potential extension
A potential extension for Ryan could be something along the lines of 5 years, $95 million. This would give him a raise in his final two arbitration seasons, and buy out 3 free agent years. This proposed deal would have Ryan pitch his age 30-34 seasons with Minnesota before possibly re-entering the market going into his age-35 campaign, where there could still be some strong earning potential. The proposed extension would take the following structure:


This proposed deal would give the Twins 3 more years of club control and guarantee Joe Ryan approximately $79 million more dollars (accounting for expected arb-year increases). Obviously, this all depends on if Ryan is comfortable in Minneapolis and would want to accept this life-changing money now, or bet on his breakout and possibly earn more money down the road. That also goes to say who knows if the Twins front office would be able to offer a deal of this size right now, given ownership concerns. I personally have no good connections to any MLB front offices, and this is completely from a fan standpoint, but I think this could be a solid framework to begin negotiations of a possible extension. It also should be stated that extensions such as this one more often happen during the offseason, so that is something to keep in mind.
 
This deal also gives the Twins more stability for their rotation in the future, as the top 3 of Lopez, Ryan and Ober are all on pace to become free agents after the 2027 season. It is highly unlikely they will be able to retain all 3 guys, but getting one locked up now may increase the chance they can extend Lopez or Ober in the future if they choose. An extension would give the Twins the following rotation outlook for seasons to come.


This gives the Twins a frontline guy they can build and develop young arms around. As they say, an ace helps prevent losing streaks, and Ryan is well on his way to becoming one. The deal gives Ryan a very nice payday and great financial security, but gives the Twins upside in that if he keeps performing at this level, this deal could become somewhat of a bargain the way that the price of pitching keeps increasing.
 
As I mentioned before, this is purely for fun, and there is no real steam behind this (at least that I know of.) As a diehard Twins fan, I would love to see Ryan stick around for many more years to come, and would have to think really hard about my fandom if they traded him at the deadline for anything short of a crazy prospect like Roman Anthony and change. Hopefully you enjoyed the article, let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!
 
 

Very soon, you will be able to update your Top 20 Minnesota Twins prospect rankings again (so watch for that!). In thinking about it over the past week or two, I actually ended up ranking my top 203 Twins prospects. Again, I include only players who remain a "prospect." It's the same criteria used the MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and any other credible prospect ranking site. 
This won't be a real deep dive into these prospects. In fact, I will attempt to keep the Top 10 prospect summaries to 3-4 sentences. The goal will be to keep the reports on prospects 11-20 to 2-3 sentences. For prospects 21-30, I'll limit myself to just 1-2 sentences. My hope is that you will use this as the starting ground and ask me a ton of questions. Ask questions on these 30 players, or ask about other players that don't appear on the list. (My hope is that I didn't miss anyone, but that is possible too.) Update - I didn't keep anywhere near my goals of keeping it short!
What do I consider in my rankings? In my opinion, the biggest factor is upside and ceiling. Just how good can this player be? But also, what is the players' floor? How likely is that player to get to the big leagues. Have they been hurt? For pitchers, I consider their velocity, stuff, reports on spin, etc. For position players, I consider athleticism, speed, defense, arm, ability to hit and the potential to turn doubles into home runs down the line. What level is the player at? How old is the player relative to level of competition? Was the player drafted out of high school or college (because that will effect age-to-level)? What types of decisions are being made regarding the player in terms of promotions, timing, place in batting order, how the teams take care of the players, etc.? And then ultimately it comes down to comparing a player versus another player and which I would have higher. 
Let's get started! When you get to the end, let's discuss the rankings, the players, who was snubbed, who's too high or too low? 
#1: Walker Jenkins - 19 - OF
It was just over a year ago that the Twins used the #5 overall pick in the 2023 draft. When he has been on the field, he has hit very well. Hurt in the Mussels first game of the season, he is hitting .265/.402/.398 (.800) with five doubles, a triple, and two homers in 27 games. Most impressive has been his patience. He has 23 walks to just 15 strikeouts. The sky is the limit. Jenkins has all five tools. 
#2: Brooks Lee - 23 - IF 
After impressing throughout spring training, Lee missed the first two months of the season with a back injury. He was brought back slowly with five rehab games in the FCL and five more in Fort Myers. He played 20 games for St. Paul and hit .329/.394/.635 (1.029) with five doubles and seven homers. He got off to a fast start, with eight hits in his first four big-league games. Since then, he has three hits over his past six games. A solid contact hitter, line drives from gap-to-gap, with potential for more power, Lee can also play solid defense across three infield positions. 
#3: Emmanuel Rodriguez - 21 - OF
In the offseason, E-Rod was added to the Twins 40-man roster. In 37 games at Double-A, he has hit .298/.479/.621 (1.100) with 12 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. He has 42 walks in 166 plate appearances. His on-base skills are incredible for his age. His power is legit. He has great speed and does a very nice job in center field. You may have noticed... Twins prospects get hurt, and Rodriguez has not been able to avoid that. He has missed time two or three times due to a hand/wrist injury that keeps coming back. When he can play, he's as talented as anyone. 
#4: Luke Keaschall - 21 - 2B 
One of the biggest risers among Twins prospects this season, Keaschall represented the Twins in the Futures Game recently. He began the season with 44 games in Cedar Rapids where he hit .335/.457/.644 (1.001). In 42 games at Wichita since, he is hitting .315/.415/.457 (.872). Combined, he has 21 doubles, a triple, and 11 home runs. He has 53 walks already. he is also 20-for-25 in stolen base attempts. After seeing him hit early in the season, I compared his approach, set up and swing to that of Mike Trout. He's big, strong, and he's got a ton of potential. 
#5: Andrew Morris - 22 - RHP  
The next guy on the list is getting all the headlines, but Morris is putting up very similar numbers. Sure, a few more walks, but some impressive overall numbers. He was the Twins fourth-round pick in 2022 from Texas Tech. He began the 2024 season in Cedar Rapids. In seven starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA. He moved up to Wichita. He has pitched nine times and has gone 5-2 with a 1.19 ERA. In 83 combined innings, he has 87 strikeouts and just 16 walks. He's got the numbers, but he also has the stuff. He's got a mid-90s fastball. He also has a really good slider and a slower, 12-6 curveball. 
#6: Zebby Matthews - 24 - RHP
Matthews was the Twins eighth round pick in 2022 from Western Carolina. Like Morris, Matthews started in Cedar Rapids. After four starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He moved up to Wichita and has pitched in 10 Double-A games. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA. In a combined 78 innings, he had 91 strikeouts and just six walks. Morris fills the strike zone. Matthews just picks the spot within the zone and throws it there. And it's worked because he now has the stuff to get whiffs in the strike zone. His mid-90s fastball also touches 98 mph now. He's also really, really worked to improve his secondary pitches. He has four strong pitches. 
#7: Austin Martin - 25 - UT 
After struggling in his transition to professional baseball and fighting some injuries the last couple of seasons, Martin has shown exactly what type of player he can be in the big leagues. He may not hit a huge number of home runs, but he hits a lot of line drives from foul line to foul line. He can run well, and run the bases well. And, defensively, he is at least adequate at second base, left, and center field. He will soon lose prospect eligibility, but the on-base machine has shown that he can be a productive big leaguer. 
#8: Charlee Soto - 18 - RHP 
A year ago, the Twins made him the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Reborn Christian Academy in Florida. He made his pro debut in 2024. A look at his overall numbers is fair, but not necessarily indicative of what he's done. In 15 starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.73 ERA. In 48 2/3 innings, he has struck out 60 and walked 22 batters. Soto is all about projection. First, he is huge; tall and very strong. He throws hard, touching 98 and 99 at times. He's also working on his secondary pitches, but each of them have shown some potential. Despite the lack of numbers, he's worked and improved and his most recent start was the best of the season.  
#9: Kaelen Culpepper - 21 - SS/3B
The Twins selected "KC" with the 21st overall pick this month in the 2024 MLB draft. The Memphis native was not recruited heavily out of high school, but he went to Kansas State and got the opportunity to play right away. In 2023, he hit .325/.423/.576 (.999) with eight doubles and 10 homers. He had the opportunity to play for Team USA last summer, playing for Larry Lee. This season, he played 61 games and hit .328/.419/.574 (.993) with 15 doubles, six triples, and 11 home runs. Culpepper is a contact, line-drive hitter who puts the ball in play and makes things happen. He played third base his first two years before moving to shortstop this season. I personally think that Culpepper is a great example of a prospect with a high floor but also has the tools to become a high-ceiling performer too. 
#10: Yasser Mercedes - 19 - OF 
A top international signing in 2022, he put up a great stat line in the DSL that summer. Last year, he moved up to the FCL, but a shoulder injury cost him performance before finally being shut down. Now healthy again, Mercedes is back. In 49 games, he has hit .337/.426/.577 (1.003) with 17 doubles, two triples, and six homers. He also has 18 stolen bases already. Mercedes can hit for average and doubles, but he'll get bigger and stronger and could add significant power. He's got really good speed, and he has the ability to play strong defense in center field. 
#11: David Festa - 24 - RHP 
A bit of a drop for Festa since the most recent prospect rankings, but honestly, for me at least, it's a lot more about the players that made big jumps in the season's first half. Sure, he had a couple of rough starts in the big leagues. He went 1-1 with an ERA over 10. I don't care about that at all. He gave up too many homers, but what did I see? I saw a fastball between 95 and 99. I saw a slider that was sharp and got some swing-and-misses. He also had some really good changeups. He's got three potentially big-league pitches. He just needs to get to St. Paul and keep working on the consistency and command of each of his pitches in and outside the zone. The stuff is definitely good enough. 
#12: Gabriel Gonzalez - 20 - OF
Did we place Gonzalez too high before the season started? Maybe. But what did we know? All we saw were his numbers, stats, and other information available online. Now he has been in the organization for a little over half of a season. Unfortunately, He missed nearly two months with a back injury which cost him valuable development time. Should he have been a Top 100 prospect as some in the industry had him? Maybe. He struggled a bit early in the season with his new organization and then got hurt. Overall, he is hitting .267/.303/.437 (.740) with 10 doubles, two triples and three home runs. So yes, he drops for now, but he is very young for the level. He is incredibly strong with a quick bat. He likes to swing. He's got things to work on, as does everyone on this list, but he's got a ton of talent and power potential.
#13: Marco Raya 21 - RHP 
It's just really hard right now to rank Raya. His "stuff" is as good as anyone's in the system, and I don't have a big problem with how he's been used. The other day when he threw 78 pitches in a game and it was the most he's thrown since 2022, it definitely gives pause. He has fought injury early in his career. He is not a big guy. He needs to continue gaining strength. I have no problem if his "future big league" roll is seen more as a 3-4 inning reliever where he just throws his big fastball and sharp breaking pitches and changeup at max effort. That can be an immensely valuable pitcher. But how do we rank that type of pitcher? Not as high as a full-time starter, but ahead of relievers. The stuff is good. The numbers haven't matched this year. 
#14: Rayne Doncon - 20 - IF 
Doncon came to the Twins this offseason with Manuel Margot from the Dodgers in exchange for SS Noah Miller. Doncon was a big international signing in 2021. He hit in the DSL, and then in the ACL. However, in 2023 at Low A, he hit just .215/.283/.368 (.651), and while those numbers aren't great, he hit 21 doubles and 14 homers. He began this season with 38 games and hit .283/.374/.464 (.838). He moved up to Cedar Rapids and in 43 games, he has hit .253/.333/.446 (.779). Combined, he already has 21 doubles and 10 home runs. Doncon is a really great athlete, very strong and quick. He's got a solid approach at the plate and does a decent job defensively around the infield. 
#15: Brandon Winokur - 19 - IF/OF
Winokur was the Twins third-round pick just a year ago out of high school in California. Winokur just might be the most athletic player in the Twins system. He stands 6-6 and is lean. Right now, he's able to play shortstop and third base as well as center field and right field. He's got a ton of power potential on his frame. Right now, he's got really good speed as well. In 56 games this season, he has hit .252/.347/.393 (.740) with 13 doubles and five homers. He has 23 walks, but he's also struck out a lot. He also have 14 stolen bases. 2024 is about getting him games and at-bats and time at each of the defensive positions. He'll have an offseason to work on things, so I believe 2025 will be a bigger year for him. 
#16: Dasan Hill - 18 - LHP 
Hill was the Twins fourth pick in last week's draft, a competitive balance pick following the second round. The lanky lefty had committed to Dallas Baptist. At 6-4 and 175 has plenty of room to add some weight and mature. He's already throwing 95 mph at times. He also has the makings of really good slider in the low-80s and high-70s slower curveball. He also has a changeup. He's all about upside. 
#17: Kala’i Rosario  - 22 - OF
Rosario was the Twins' fifth and final pick from the 2020 draft. The Hawaiian-born slugger was the High-A Midwest League's home run and RBI champ and the league's MVP. He went to the Arizona Fall League and tied for the league lead in home runs. Rosario only recently turned 22, so he is very young for the Double-A level. In 52 games, he hit .241/.342/.417 (.759) with 15 doubles and six homers. Unfortunately, his season came to an end due to injury. 
#18: Cory Lewis - 23 - RHP
Lewis was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2022 out of UC-Santa Barbara. He made his professional debut in 2023. He made nine starts in Fort Myers and 13 starts in Cedar Rapids. He went a combined 9-4 with a 2.49 ERA. In 101 1/3 innings, he had 118 strikeouts and 33 walks. He was named the Twins minor-league pitcher of the year and the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. Unfortunately, he missed the first two months of this season with injury. He is now back and with the Wichita Wind Surge where he has made five starts. 
#19: Ricardo Olivar - 22 - C 
The Twins signed Olivar in July of 2019 which meant that his professional career really didn't get underway until the 2021 season. He had a breakout season in the FCL in 2022. In 40 games, he hit .349 (1.046) with 12 doubles, three triples and five homers. He validated that season by hitting .285 (.855) with 28 doubles and 10 homers in Fort Myers. He has played in 75 games for Cedar Rapids .He is hitting .294/.403/.489 (.892) with 15 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. He's a good athlete for a catcher and can play some left field. He's got a strong arm. He takes very good plate appearances and is willing to walk. He also has the talent to be a solid all-around hitter. 
#20: Danny De Andrade - 20 - SS 
De Andrade was a top international signing for the Twins in January of 2021 from Venezuela. He has generally held his own offensively while playing very strong defense at shortstop. In 2023 in Fort Myers, he hit .244/.354/.396 (.750) with 21 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He was also 20-for-24 in stolen base attempts. In 29 games with Cedar Rapids this year, he hit .243/.333/.359 (.693) with six doubles, two homers and five steals. Unfortunately, his season came to an end after a high-ankle injury. 
#21: Kyle DeBarge - 21 - SS 
Barely recruited out of high school, the Louisiana native stayed in-state and played for the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana-Lafayette. He played in 60 games that first season and hit .293 (.750), a solid freshman season. In 2023, he hit .371 (.994) with 15 doubles and seven home runs. He spent last summer in the Cape Cod League. This spring, DeBarge was the Sun Belt Conference player of the year after hitting .356/.418/.699 (1.117) with 19 doubles, three triples and 21 homers. At the same time, few question his ability to stay at shortstop defensively. He's just 5-9, but it's fair to call him a "ballplayer." 
#22: Jose Rodriguez - 19 - OF
Rodriguez is a big, strong youngster with a ton of power potential. He's shown it at various times. As a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2022, he hit .290 (.966) with 15 homers, three triples, and 13 home runs. In 2023, he came to the FCL and really had to adjust but by season's end, he had. He hit .262 (.737) with 10 doubles and six homers. This year, he played 33 games with the Mussels and hit just .186 (.569) and struck out about 33.3% of the time. But few in the organization have as much power potential as Rodriguez. Unfortunately, his season came to an early end as well which is costing him valuable development opportunities. 
#23: Jair Camargo - 25 - C 
Camargo signed with the Dodgers out of Colombia in January of 2015. In February of 2020, he was traded with Kenta Maeda to the Twins. It's been a slow progression through the Twins system ever since. Last year in St. Paul, he hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 homers. This year, he's been injured a couple of times and was called up for a little while. The burly backstop is a good athlete, and he's quite strong. He has improved his plate discipline and contact rate the past couple of years. 
#24: Yunior Severino - 24 - IF 
It's been an interesting career for Severino, going back to signing with the Braves, being deemed a free agent, and signing with the Twins to a second seven-digit signing bonus. He could always hit, and he's made himself playable at the corners. In 2023, he played 84 games for Wichita and 36 games at St. Paul. Combined, he hit .272/.352/.546 (.898) with 17 doubles and a minor-league-leading 35 home runs. His 2024 started out very slowly. That makes his .253/.362/.451 (.813) stat line look better. He's got nine doubles and 16 home runs. Tons of swing and miss, but a lot of pop in his bat too. 
#25: Dameury Pena - 18 - 2B 
A right-handed Luis Arraez? Probably not fair, but Pena is a really good hitter as a very young player. Signed in January 2023, he hit .382/.453/.496 (.949) with eight doubles and three triples. This year, as an 18-year-old in the FCL, he has hit .294/.400/.431 (.831) with four doubles, a triple, and three home runs in 33 games. Over the two years, he has 32 walks to go with just 18 strikeouts. Hard contact, uses the whole field, lots of singles and doubles. Pena is a very intriguing prospect. 
#26: Rubel Cespedes - 23 - 3B/1B 
Cespedes has been in the organization for a long time, but I would bet most people really didn't know his name before this season. He signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic back in April of 2019. He made his pro debut in the DSL that summer. In 2021, he hit just .158 in the FCL. However, in 2022, he was doing well in Extended Spring and got an opportunity with Fort Myers. He stuck, hitting over 74 games. He remained with the Mussels in 2023. In 115 games, he hit .233/.313/.398 (.711) with 26 doubles and 13 homers. He played some winter ball this offseason which he said really helped him prepare for this year. In 71 games with the Kernels, he is hitting .289/.361/.459 (.820) with 12 doubles and 10 home runs. Cespedes has really cut his K-Rate. He's got a fairly smooth but strong left-handed swing that can generate a lot of power around the field. Defensively, he's solid at both corner infield spots and possesses a tremendously strong arm. 
#27: C.J. Culpepper - 22 - RHP
Culpepper was the Twins 13th round pick in 2022 out of Cal-Baptist. He split 2023 between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. In 21 starts, he went 6-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He had 89 strikeouts per inning. This offseason, he found himself featured in national publication's Top 10 Twins prospect rankings? He isn't a flame-thrower, though he sits 92-94. What makes him so intriguing is that he has six pitches, and he's been encouraged to continue working with all of them. This season, he's been limited to just seven starts. He's been fine, posting a 3.26 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. However, he has been on the IL when forearm/elbow issues. 
#28: Billy Amick - 21 - 3B 
A South Carolina native, Amick stayed in-state out of high school and went to Clemson. His first season, he had just 19 plate appearances over nine games (and had 11 strikeouts). However, as a sophomore, he played in 46 games and hit .413/.464/.773 (1.236) with 17 doubles and 13 home runs. After spending time in The Cape, he took advantage of the transfer portal and went to Tennessee and the SEC. In 65 games, he hit .306/.387/.639 (1.026) with 14 doubles and 23 home runs. He helped lead the Volunteers to the College World Series championship. The Twins used their second-round pick on the slugger, and he could move swiftly once he gets acclimated. 
#29: Spencer Bengard - 22 - RHP
This is the Cal-Baptist section of my prospect rankings. Bengard was the Twins 15th round pick in 2023 from the same school as CJ Culpepper. (No, I couldn't quite fit FCL right-hander and 2023 Undrafted Free Agent signing into this range.) Bengard, to some degree has become this year's Day 3 Find. He began the season working out of the Fort Myers bullpen. He's made six starts and six relief appearances, but even coming out of the bullpen he works 3-5 innings at a time. He is 6-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 55 1/3 innings, he has 57 strikeouts to just 10 walks. Bengard throws a low-90s fastball (90-91, touch 94), a low-to-mid-80s changeup, a mid-80s slider, and some upper-70s curveballs. 
#30: Eduardo Beltre - 17 - IF 
At the 30th spot, it's always fun to consider the youngest players in the organization. In January, the Twins signed Beltre out of the Dominican Republic with a bonus just shy of $1.5 million. Only Daiber De Los Santos received a larger bonus this year ($1.9M). His DSL season got going a little bit late due to a wrist injury, but once he got in the lineup, he's been unreal. In 22 games, he is hitting .339/.500/.554 (1.054) with two doubles and four homers. He's also got 18 walks to go with just 14 strikeouts, something I sure like to see. He's got huge power potential, but he is also a very good athlete. He likely has the speed to stay in center, but he's been getting a lot of time in right field too. 
The Next 20 (in alphabetical order)
Adrian Bohorquez - RHP 
Darren Bowen - RHP
Matt Canterino - RHP 
Noah Cardenas - C 
Byron Chourio - OF 
Miguel Cordero - RHP 
Khadim Diaw - C
Daiber De Los Santos - SS 
Jaime Ferrer - OF
Tanner Hall - RHP 
Ronny Henriquez - RH RP 
Kyle Jones - RHP 
DaShawn Keirsey - OF
Cesar Lares - LHP 
Jeferson Morales - OF 
Jaylen Nowlin - LHP 
Pierson Ohl - RHP 
Connor Prielipp - LHP 
Tanner Schobel - IF
Patrick Winkel - C
 

What went wrong for David Festa?
David Festa —AKA The Slim Reaper — has had a lot of prospect helium over the past season and a half. Since being drafted in the 13th round in 2021, he has added a few MPH to his fastball, and greatly improved his secondary pitches to the point that he is now the 89th best prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. He put up video game numbers in St Paul, setting strikeout records. He briefly walked too many guys, but seemed to solve that problem after a few starts, and his results suggested he was ready to join the Twins rotation permanently.
However, he was optioned back to St Paul following two sub-par starts, in which he gave up 12 runs in 10 innings. He allowed 4 home runs, had a WHIP of 1.7, an ERA+ of just 39, and was worth -.5 WAR. Even his FIP doesn’t look much better, at 7.07.
Is this a case of a talented rookie feeling some nerves, or a sign that there’s still some developmental work to do before his next callup? Was he approaching things differently than he did in his time at St Paul? Let’s take a look at some underlying data.
First, let’s look at his stuff, beginning with his fastball. From a velocity standpoint, he was better than average, grading out in the 75th percentile. His extension is in the 93rd percentile, giving the illusion of even more velocity. His fastball spin averaged 2349 RPM, which is average. However, his heater has MUCH less movement than typical. His 4-seam drops 12” as it crosses the plate, compared to a 15” league average. That part is fine. It also approaches hitters on a very straight trajectory, moving in just 2 inches compared to a 7” average. Major league hitters can crush straight fastballs, regardless of how hard they are thrown, and his fastball results bear that out. He gave up a .385 BA and a .615 slugging on that pitch, turning every hitter he faced into Aaron Judge. Not great.

How about his off-speed pitches? His slider and changeup both had above-average velo, and typical spin rates. Similar to his heater, he did not get the movement required to be successful at the Major-league level. His slider moved away from same-sided hitters just two inches, compared to a league-average 6 inches. His changeup dropped just 25” compared to a 32” league average. That said, his changeup is his only pitch that showed up as average-ish, with just a .318 xWOBA and a 33% whiff rate, but a .500 expected slugging percentage.

While Festa limited free passes at a much-better-than-average rate, pounded the zone, and hit his spots at the edges of the zone, he did not show swing and miss stuff, generating just 21% whiffs. And, hitters barreled his pitches at MORE THAN DOUBLE the league average. Part of this can be attributed to location, as he left too many pitches over the heart of the plate.

 
Despite all this, he did find success his first time through the order, allowing just a .5 WHIP through the first two innings of both starts. After that, the wheels fell off, with a 3.0 WHIP in innings 3 and 4.

He also struggled to get the third out, regardless of inning, giving up a 3.3 WHIP with two outs. Interestingly, his two-out and second time through the order struggles were true of his time at AAA as well, which doesn’t bode well for the future.

It’s just not possible to be successful at this level without either swing and miss stuff, or elite command and control. This story this tells is that Festa likely has some work to do to increase spin, movement, or locating his pitches. Or, perhaps he would find better results out of the bullpen where he would be less exposed, and could dial up the velocity even a bit further.
What do you think? Is Festa destined to be a AAAA-type pitcher? Are there mechanical changes that can improve the movement of his pitches? Should he adjust his pitch mix, or his sequencing? Should he move to the bullpen? Or is all this a case of nerves? Comment below!
 
 
 

The Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso:
Twins get: Pete Alonso
Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall
I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term one season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season.
Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the Shortstop starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. 
My conclusion is this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. What say each of you?

With the recent good news that Royce Lewis it's just about ready to start an assumedly short rehab assignment, one's mind turns to what happens when he's ready to rejoin the Twins. You have to think that he'll be playing 3B at least three or four times a week and probably more, and we have Castro as a potential 3B backup. What happens to José Miranda in that scenario?
First, the facts. Miranda is hitting .276/.315/.457 (.772) with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 12 RBIs in 105 ABs. He has 16 SOs and 4 walks, (14.5% SO rate, 3.7% walk rate). He's better against LH pitching – .807 OPS – but still respectable against RH pitching with a .722 OPS. His defense at 3B, once a weakness, has improved to a little below average average, with a -2 OAA at 3B and a 0 OAA at 1B. His Statcast chart is not particularly impressive, above average in some things but very little red other than being on the 74th percentile in whiff rate in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. In other words, the stats so far indicate a little better-than-average player at age 25 with about 750 at bats in MLB so far. Those latter two facts suggest that there is room for improvement to a solidly above average hitter who is an average or slightly above fielder, but those results are far from assured.
I think the Twins have to keep Miranda on the roster and I think he needs to play. His team needs quality RH hitters in the worst way, and Miranda is really the only reinforcement option. Lewis can obviously hit, Correa is a quality hitter, and both Buxton and Jeffers are streaky. The rest of them? Not much there. Margot and Vasquez are well below average hitters even if you only count Margot hitting from the right side. Santana can hit right-handed but is a black hole left-handed, and from a hitting standpoint should only start against left-handed pitching. Farmer can hit left-handed pitching or at least could in the past but he's nearing the end of his career and it's unlikely he's going to have a big pop during this season. he's also somewhere else next year. I think you have to keep Miranda around for his bat and hope his defense improves.
So where do you play him once Lewis is back to play 3B? I think the answer is pretty simple. Miranda plays 4 to 5 days a week, 3 to 4 of them as the 1B against right-handed pitching, a day or two at 3B for Lewis when he is the DH, and he can be the DH once a week, maybe twice. I would also look at him at 2B as the RH alternative to Edward Julien unless Rocco comes to his senses and starts playing Julien every day. Miranda was a 2B in the minors, he's here for the long term, and he's a better hitter than Farmer. I would suggest trying him in LF, but I know they did that in the minors and I hear it was an unmitigated disaster. So my view is Miranda needs to stay, play regularly, and do it in a combination of 1B and 3B. 
This decision is coming in is coming within the next couple weeks hopefully. What he is everybody think?

Alright folks, today we are going to talk about the 1982 Topps and Topps Traded baseball card sets. Some of you who have been following my blog series may wonder, why did he skip 1981. The reason is that I set a rule for myself and said if I do not have all Twins cards in a particular set, I would not write about it until I complete that set. So, 1981 will have to wait for a future blog post. On another note, this week you’re getting the bonus of the 1982 Topps Traded set. I simply thought this small set completes the 1982 Topps package and that they should stand together.
I am fan of the 1982 Topps design. The design is the same for the standard set as well as the Traded set. The team’s name is listed near the bottom of the card with the player’s name under the team name. There are two colored stripes down the left side of the card which round the lower left corner and go partially across the bottom until they run into the team and player names. The outside line color coincides with the player’s name and the inside line is the same color as the team name. Additionally, the outside line includes the player’s position on the bottom after it rounds the corner. While I like that design, I do not like that the color seems random and unconnected to the team’s color scheme. In the case of the Twins cards, the colors are orange and brown. I would have chosen blue and red, but many other teams also have questionable color choices. Despite that critique, I still like the design.  
There are 792 cards in the 1982 Topps baseball card set including 26 Twins cards. The set has the rookie card of Cal Ripken, Jr., as well as future Twin Tom Brunansky. Ripken’s rookie is with two others and labeled as Orioles Futures Stars. The set contains a similar Twins card which we will highlight below. The Traded set has 132 cards featuring six Twins players. The pictures are almost all portrait shots of the players, but the quality of the pictures is getting a little better as years go by and in judgment these portrait shots have improved since the sets of the prior decade.
This week I was indecisive and have some ties for most obscure player and best card.
MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
My selections for the most obscure Twins players in the 1982 Topps baseball sets are Chuck Baker (#253) and Randy Johnson (#51T)
               
This is Chuck Baker’s lone Topps card as a Twin. He was a backup infielder who played only one of his three MLB seasons with the Twins. For the Twins, he had only 66 at bats and 12 hits. Noteworthy is that three of those 12 hits were triples. Baker only played an entire game nine times that season. Most of his action looks like a late game defensive replacement. Baker was drafted four times by four organizations, the first by the Twins in the 36th round of the 1971 draft but did not sign. He signed in 1975 after being drafted in the second round by the Padres. Baker came to the Twins in December of 1980 in a trade for outfield Dave Edwards.
Randy Johnson, who played only one season with the Twins (and one with the White Sox), is an obscure player who many probably don’t remember. But he has always stuck in my brain. The first year the Twins played at the Metrodome, 1982, I was young and impressionable and Johnson, a designated hitter, started scorching hot in that his age 23 season. Johnson’s great April must have been a time I was paying attention and for some reason that month was etched into my memory. Baseball Reference games logs show he hit 10 home runs in his career, all with the Twins in 1982. But more to the point, five of those home runs came in April. At the end of April, he had an exceptional slash line of .393/.449/.738. His OPS was 1.187. For many years after 1982 and before the internet, I would occasionally remember Johnson and wonder what ever happened to him. Turns out he just wasn’t very good, the Twins let him go, and he never reappeared in MLB.  He was out of minor league baseball after the 1985 season when he was only 26 years of age.
THE BEST
Alright, the best card of 1982 is an easy one for me, well easy two. It’s Kent Hrbek’s official rookie card (#766) and other rookie year card (#44T). Like probably most everyone, my favorite would be his first stand-alone card (#44T). However, that one is in the Traded set, so it’s not considered his true rookie card. The true rookie card is the #766 Future Stars card which also features long-time catcher Tim Laudner and short-time shortstop Lenny Faedo. I hope to get Hrbek’s autograph someday on the Future Stars card along with Laudner’s.


PERSONAL FAVORITE
I love the picture and stance of Butch Wynegar (#222). It’s of the style of the 1971 Roberto Clemente (which is a favorite of many collectors) and the 1972 card of Twins superstar Harmon Killebrew. Wynegar is kind of mid swing with the bat aimed at the camera. I guess I just think it’s a cool pose which is the single reason it’s my favorite Twins card in the 1982 set.

               
I think the 1982 Topps cards are a pretty good design. As a group I can say I definitely like the early 80s designs better than the late 70s. We’ll see if this trend continues.
Does anybody out there have a player to them like Randy Johnson was to me, someone who made a distinct impression upon you that made you think he was better than he actually was? Do you like the Clemente/Killebrew/Wynegar bat pose? I would appreciate any comments or opinions below. Thanks for reading.
Go Twins!

We look forward to seeing if Austin Martin can translate his on base skills to the big leagues. Will those skills translate without more power? He has a career 105 ISO is the minor leagues which led to major league projections this year in the 80-99 range. That leads to the following questions.
Is there any reason to hope that his ISO is trending up? Can a hitter be a successful every day player with a ISO in the 80-99 range? Any hope?
There is at least some reason to hope that his ISO is trending up. One narrative is that the Twins messed him up trying to swing his approach and swing towards more power. I think it was the correct direction. Add a little power to his on base skills and defensive versatility and you find a valuable major league player. The adjustments may have helped. His ISO last year in AAA was 142 following a AA ISO of 93 over the previous two seasons. Somehow the narrative of the Twins failure to get more power misses this change in ISO.
Can he be successful?
Last year there were four major league regulars with an ISO below 100 in Tim Anderson, Myles Straw, Maikel Garcia and Andrew Benintendi. All were well be below average hitters on the season. In the 100-120 range you will find some average major league hitters in Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner, Jeff McNeill and Ty France. Nick Madrigal has been average in this range in previous seasons. McNeill and France were on a career low end of ISO so it seems like Hoerner and Kwan are the best hopes here. Here is a comparison of their last year in the minors. 

Martin has more walks at the cost of more strikeouts and a lower batting average. The window is small and he does need to continue with the upward ISO trend to make up for his lower batting average but there is a window for success with a low ISO.
I should add that you will also find Luis Arraez here with an ISO of 115 last year. I think he is one of a kind but we can hope.

Hi folks. I am Al from SoDak. I have been reading Twins Daily since its inception and always thought of contributing. Well, here I go.
I am a collector of Twins baseball cards. About 10-15 years ago, I made it a goal to get at least one card from every Twins player who had a card. That goal seems to have morphed into getting each Twins card for every Topps set (and a few other brands here and there). I currently have more than 2,400 cards from about 750 unique players. I have a plan for a series of posts to review and comment on each year’s set of Twins cards. But by no means will this be completed in one initial post. I plan to cover each year in order of the years I have completed. So, I will start with my first completed set (1963 Topps) and go forward to other completed sets. As I continue with my series, I will continue with my collecting. Hopefully when I get the most recent set, I will have more of the earlier sets completed and can loop back and comment on those. Hopefully we all find this an interesting exercise.
To start with I am going to give my opinion of the best card. This will likely be one of the most expensive cards but not necessarily the most expensive. I don’t want to have too many Killebrews, Olivas, Carews, etc. I will also give my opinion of my personal favorite card. This might be based on the look of the card, or a story behind the card or player. Finally, I will discuss the card of the most obscure player in my opinion. This will hopefully include a little research and history of this player so that we can learn more about lesser-known players. I anticipate the obscure player part ending up as the most detailed and longest part of the post.
We’ll see how this goes.
1963 TOPPS
This colorful set is one my favorites from the 1960s. The cards are 2.5” x 3.5” which has been the standard card size since 1957. Each card contains a larger color image of the player with a smaller black and white picture within a circle at the bottom of the card. The player’s name, team and position are on a colorful thick border at the bottom. The league leader cards and many of the rookie cards are of the notorious “floating head” design. This 1963 set contains the Tony Oliva #228 rookie card amongst its 33 Twins cards.

THE BEST
Many sources list the Oliva rookie card and Harmon Killebrew #500 as the most expensive Twins cards in the set. The Oliva card is of the often ridiculed “floating heads” design, so I am going to lean to the Harmon Killebrew card the best card. Hopefully this doesn’t start a trend of too many Killebrews.

PERSONAL FAVORITE
I like the Bob Allison #75 where he is shown in a solid batting pose. Jim Kaat (#165) stares down the camera at the start of a wind-up. To me, that’s a good card and made better by the fact that I was able to get mine autographed at TwinsFest a few years back. I also like that the AL Home Run Leaders #4 has Killebrew front and center as the top dog from 1962. The autograph on the good-looking Jim Kaat card puts that card on top for me as my personal favorite.
                     
MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
My choice as the most obscure Twins player included in the 1963 Topps baseball card set is George Banks (card #564).

Interestingly, the Twins had five rookie cards included in the 1963 Topps set. Four of those cards were like the Oliva rookie with “floating heads” design, but one rookie player got his own card – yes, Mr. Banks. Why? Well, he was signed in 1957 by the New York Yankees and had minor league success. George Banks hit 82 minor league home runs through 1960 (on his way to 223 home runs in 11 minor league seasons). In 1961 the Twins selected him in the Rule 5 draft, the mechanism that led to the Twins obtaining Shane Mack and Johan Santana (trade) many years later.
George Banks played mainly 3rd Base and Outfield. He played a total of five seasons in MLB, splitting his time between Minnesota and Cleveland. He was a piece in a key trade – He and Lee Stange were traded to Cleveland for Mudcat Grant who we all know won 21 games in the World Series year of 1965. Mudcat won Game 6 nearly all by himself. He led the Twins to a 5-1 win in this elimination game. He allowed only six hits and was also a force in the batter’s box with a 3-run home run.
Banks could never match his minor league prowess in the big leagues. His WAR was 0.3. He only got 203 at bats in MLB. He played 63 games in 1963, but only 25 in 1964. After the trade he played in a total of 17 games over parts of three seasons in Cleveland.
But George Banks did have a nice 1963 rookie card. The card shows him squaring to bunt which contrasts with his minor league propensity to his home runs. Love it!
So there it is. My first entry in what could end up being a long series about baseball cards and the Minnesota Twins. Hopefully I get some positive feedback, encouragement, and views to keep me motivated.
If you disagree with my opinions, I would love to see your opinions, criticisms, and suggestions in the comments below. Don’t be too hard on me. Let’s have fun with this!

The second pick for the Minnesota Twins in the 2022 draft was the left-handed flame thrower out of Alabama named Connor Prielipp. The Twin's Front Office was excited to be able to draft Prielipp 48th overall, and it showed with the Twins going over slot value and handing Prielipp a $1.825 million signing bonus. Since then, it appears that Connor Prielipp and his devastating fastball-slider mix have fallen off the face of the Earth, and so we must ask… Where in the world is Connor Prielipp? To answer this question, first, we must examine where Prielipp came from before he joined the Twins Organization.
Prielipp arrived at the University of Alabama in 2020 after being ranked as the top left-handed pitcher and number two overall player out of the state of Wisconsin by Perfect Game USA. He backed up his highly touted prep status by becoming the first Freshman to pitch Opening Day for Alabama since Taylor Guilbeau started Opening Day for the Crimson Tide in 2012. Prielipp earned the win that day against my Northeastern Huskies, which was only the start of a magnificent Freshman campaign. Prielipp’s COVID shortened 2020 went to the tune of a 0.00 ERA in 21.0 IP across 4 starts. He struck out 35 batters compared to only 9 walks, and perhaps most impressively: gave up only 5 hits all year, leading to a 0.52 WHIP, lowest in the SEC among qualified pitchers. 
After his incredible 2020, Prielipp was listed as the number 4 pitcher on Baseball America’s College top 150 list for the 2021 season, as well as being named a Preseason All-SEC team member, a First Team Preseason All-American by practically every major publication for college baseball, and was listed on the Golden Spikes Award Preseason Watch List by USA Baseball. The hype surrounding Prielipp extended beyond the realm of college baseball, as many MLB Draft evaluators pegged Prielipp as a potential 1st overall pick in a stacked 2022 draft class that included Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, and fellow Twin and potential 1st overall pick Brooks Lee. Prielipp again earned the Opening Day nod for the Tide in 2021 and pitched 5 shutout innings against McNeese, picking up 8 strikeouts and only 1 walk in a 10-6 win over the Cowboys. Unfortunately, this is where the wheels begin to fall off for Prielipp’s journey. In Prielipp’s start against McNeese, it had turned out that he had suffered from an elbow injury. Prielipp took a two-month recovery to see if the elbow could heal on its own and returned to pitch one inning against Auburn. However, the break had not fully healed his elbow and Prielipp missed another month before making an appearance against LSU, which would end up being Prielipp’s final appearance in college baseball as he opted for Tommy John surgery which ended his 2021 and his 2022 seasons. 
Connor Prielipp’s college career ended with an absurd 0.97 ERA, 15.1 K/9, and a 2.25 BB/9. Granted this is all with the caveat of only pitching 28 innings in his time at Tuscaloosa. However, his 95-mph fastball paired with his plus-plus slider still played, as he was able to prove himself in a post-surgery bullpen in front of MLB scouts before the 2022 MLB Draft. This bullpen and Prielipp’s prior pedigree convinced the Twins that the upside Prielipp had coming into 2021 was still there, leading to the Twins selecting Prielipp with the 48th pick in the 2022 Draft. 
As is the norm with most drafted pitchers, Prielipp did not make an in-game appearance in pro ball in 2022, instead, the Twins were careful with him and his surgically repaired elbow, only allowing him to throw in the Instructional League. 
Once Prielipp arrived at Spring Training in 2023, he once again blew the Twins staff away with his raw stuff. He showcased the same fastball and slider but also showed a low 80s changeup that he did not showcase often at Alabama. After impressing in the spring, Prielipp made his professional debut with High-A Cedar Rapids on April 9th, 2023, against Peoria. The Twins once again wanting to be careful with Prielipp’s arm limited him to a 4-inning outing in which he gave up 3 earned runs, struck out 3 batters, and walked another 2. After this start, the Twins placed Prielipp on the 7-Day IL with arm soreness and inflammation. At the time the Front Office played down any concerns that they might have had with this injury, believing that Prielipp’s arm would respond well to rest. After a month-long absence, Prielipp returned in June to make a rehab start with the FCL Twins. Prielipp’s rehab start lasted 2.2 innings in which he allowed 2 earned runs, struck out 4 batters, and walked 2. After his rehab start, Prielipp and the Twins made the decision to operate on his elbow yet again. On July 14th, 2023, Prielipp had an internal brace placed in his left elbow by Dr. Keith Meister. This can be perceived as good news as this is a less invasive procedure than traditional Tommy John, which usually requires a less intensive, albeit lengthy rehab. 
Now that we know where Prielipp came from, where do we go from here? Prielipp projects to return from surgery this summer, yet, with less than 40 innings pitched in the last 4 years, it is difficult to project where Prielipp will go from here. However, MLB Pipeline has Prielipp ranked as the 7th prospect in the Twins Organization, and as the 3rd highest pitcher in the organization, ahead of arms like David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Matt Canterino. The reasoning for this is quite simple: Connor Prielipp’s slider is the best pitch the Twins have in their farm system. MLB Pipeline has it ranked as a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. The pitch’s sharp vertical movement paired with the ability to touch 90mph on it, and showing that he can throw it consistently for strikes means it is a lethal tool for the left-hander. Prielipp showed the Twins that the pitch was still there after his first operation both in pre-draft workouts and later in 2023 Spring Training. The key to Prielipp’s success is showing that the pitch is still there after his second operation. If Prielipp returns from his surgery and can use his slider as he was able to in the past, he could likely become a key cog for the Twins’ rotation plans.
Prielipp looks to be ready for MLB action in around 2026, where he could be a monster out of the bullpen or a potential frontline starter. The Twins’ obvious priority is to get a healthy season of development from Prielipp, but it should not shock anyone if they decide to build Prielipp up as a starter as they currently are with another prospect with monster stuff and injury concerns: Matt Canterino. If all goes right for Prielipp in his rehab and development, the Twins could have another feather in their cap from their already very impressive 2022 pitching draft class. 

Dereck Falvey and the Twins finally woke up from a two-month offseason slumber and made the first significant move of the offseason, trading long time Twin Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for 4 players. I have a lot of emotional thoughts on what Polanco meant not just as a player, but how he represents the organization so well in the 15+ years he's been with the Twins. Here's some quick hitters on three of the guys in the deal. 
Justin Topa
Topa was one of the more consistent relievers in what was an honestly insane Mariners bullpen. Topa pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 69 innings(nice) with a 3.15 FIP, a team high 155 ERA+ and an 8.0 K/9. Before last season, Topa had only pitched in 17 total games across 3 MLB seasons with Milwaukee. Topa's K rate is a bit low(21%), but he also doesn't walk many batters(6%). His Stuff+ is insane.

From @pitchprofiler on Twitter
Topa fills a need in the Twins bullpen hierarchy already with Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar and Funderburk among others. Basically fills the Pagan role. 
 
Anthony DeSclafani
DeSclafani was already moved earlier this offseason from the Giants to the Mariners in the Robbie Ray/Mitch Haniger deal. DeSclafani was one of many breakouts on an insane 2021 Giants team, but he's battled injuries the last few seasons. He's going to provide at least some starting pitching depth, but I don't think the Twins are done adding to their rotation. DeSclafani has generally been a pretty solid back end of the rotation guy, with a career 4.20 ERA in 169 GS. He's on the last year of a 3 yr/36 million deal, but the Twins just owe him around 4 million. It gives the Twins some cap flexibility and probably gives them a shot at more starting pitching options in FA. 
Darren Bowen 
Bowen seems like just a throw in prospect to the deal, but he's got some intriguing tools. A 2022 13th round pick out of UNC-Pembroke, Bowen wasn't on the most recent top 30 Mariners prospects according to MLB Pipeline, but now slots in at number 27 in the Twins system. Only 22 years old, he had a 3.88 ERA in 19 games and 55 IP. His fastball sits around 92 MPH, and he throws a pretty nasty slider and changeup as well, though he still needs work on command with that pitch. 
Bowen's addition only intrigues the potential rotation we might get at Cedar Rapids this year, with the likes of Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, Andrew Morris, and C.J Culpepper. 
 
Gabriel Gonzalez
This is what really got me excited about the deal. As much as it would if the Twins got one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo back. Gonzalez was a top five prospect in a really underrated Mariners system, and he'll slot in as a top 5 prospect in the Twins system as well. Gonzalez is ranked inside the top 100 according to MLB pipeline at 79, giving the Twins 4 top 100 prospects. Gonzalez slashed .348/.403/.530 with a .933 OPS at single A, but only slashed .215/.290/.387 with a .677 OPS at high A. But Gonzalez is my personal favorite kind of outfield prospect. A corner outfielder with good enough defense but shows a ton of good power with potential for contact to be better as well. 
According to @SamDykstraMiLB on Twitter, Gonzalez was one of 61 teenagers to get 300+ PA at single A. He had the highest average amongst the group, and his K rate was at 13.7%, the third lowest amongst these players. The defensive profile is also promising for a 20-year-old corner outfielder. In my eyes, I think Gabriel will only continue to get better and the thoughts of a Jenkins-Gonzalez-Rodriguez MLB outfield in 4-5 years is cool to think about. 
 
@TFTwins did a great job in short time with this shorter video breaking down Gonzalez and Bowen. 
Overall, I think it's a very solid trade for the Twins and Mariners. I'd give both teams a B+ with a chance for both teams grades to be better, especially if Gonzalez and Bowen work out for the Twins. 
What do you all think of the trade? This is the longest blog I've written, so thank you for reading all the way through! Be sure to follow me on my twitter @JuhnTroy. 

I read somewhere on Twins Daily that the MVP for the Twins in 2023 was depth. After losing a lead in 2022, the Twins added several depth pieces to their roster along with keeping Carlos Correa after it appeared that he would leave due to free agency. Adding to the starting pitching staff by acquiring Pablo López wasn't directly adding depth to the rotation, but adding a solid starter moved Bailey Ober out of the rotation temporarily, so when injuries eventually occurred, they had Ober and Louie Varland ready as the sixth and seventh guys to take the ball. The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor and with Byron Buxton's inability to play center, that depth piece became a regular. Correa's signing meant that Kyle Farmer, pegged as the regular shortstop, could assume a utility role and the Twins signed Willi Castro, a speedy guy with the ability to play several positions, as another depth piece. Nick Gordon had flourished in the latter part of 2022 and was another player capable of manning several positions. Finally, the Twins signed Donovan Solano late in the winter. He proved to be a vital hitter with the ability to fill in at three different infield spots. 
Many, including myself, lauded the front office for the foresight to be ready for the inevitable injuries and underperformances. As mentioned, Buxton never got to center field and only played in 85 games as the DH, José Miranda, coming off a nice rookie year was both disappointing and injured and only played in 40 games, Projected starters Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL and went back on the injury list later in the season. Every position player starter spent time on the IL, one rotation member (Mahle) was lost for the season before the frost was out of the ground and yet the depth (and reinforcements) kept the Twins above water and finally carried them to a comfortable division flag. 
So, this year seems to be totally different. While the Twins appear to have a pretty solid 26-man roster, they have only added a lottery ticket to their bullpen. I know it's only January, but the lack of activity seems telling. There hasn't been any speculation that the Twins were in on a substantial free agent. The club has announced they will be cutting payroll, perhaps to the point that any payroll additions would have to be countered by subtractions. There hasn't been a replacement added for either of the two rotation members who left by free agency and so far no activity to bolster the center field mix minus Taylor. It looks to me like the Twins are going to try to fill these gaps internally, a complete departure from 2023. 
I have belief that players on the roster or in St. Paul can fill those gaps. I think Austin Martin will be a capable outfielder with good speed and bat to ball skills. I think Miranda will come back and capably fill the role that Solano handled so well in '23. I think Brooks Lee will be a future star as soon as this year.  I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League. However, beyond those just mentioned, my confidence is not nearly as high. There will be injuries to the pitching staff and to position players. Most everyone on the 40-man roster will be on the major league roster at some point in the season. I don't see the proven depth to step in when the inevitable rash of injuries occurs. 
I guess the front office is gambling that a) injuries will be manageable and b) the internal options will adequately fill the gaps in the Opening Day roster. I am not so sure, but do understand how tough it is to acquire the help needed with the payroll constraints. 

It feels like Twins fans would burn Target Field to the ground if the team trades  Édouard Julien this offseason — roughly a year after they traded fan favorite Luis Arráez. I myself would never do it, but I don’t think it’s such a crazy possibility.
Let me start by saying my opinion right away: I don't think the Twins should trade Édouard Julien. However, one thing intrigues me: how can we be so sure Julien is the real deal? When I remember the kind of rookie season José Miranda had in 2022 and then how his bat disappeared in 2023, I can't help but feel a bit apprehensive. What are the chances the same won't happen to Julien?
Many might say, "There's no evidence that Julien will slump". Well, was there for Miranda? When you compare some of Miranda’s expected numbers with the actual ones during 2022, you find out that the gap between them wasn’t large. I’m not at all an advanced stats specialist, but I assume such a small gap didn’t point out the kind of regression he had in 2023.

Expected stats aren’t meant to be predictive, but if there's a significant gap between a player's expected stats and their traditional stats, regression to the mean should be considered. Since Miranda’s gap wasn’t significant — nor his sample size —, his regression in 2023 is hard to understand.
Was his 2022, both at the majors and Triple-A, a mere fluke?
Miranda’s case is perplexing, and we might get some more definitive answers in 2024. But with his case in mind, I come back to Julien. Say you’re Derek Falvey, and you could go 12 months back in time from today, knowing everything that would happen this year. Would you have considered trading Miranda in December of 2022? If you answer yes, given how you know he’ll regress in the following season, then considering a trade involving Julien right now isn’t the craziest of ideas.
I must remind you about what I wrote in the first paragraph and repeat it: I would not trade Julien right now. Just like I wouldn’t trade Miranda — I still hope he can bounce back. To be fair, Julien’s rookie season was better than Miranda’s, as you can you on the charts below. But even though I wouldn’t personally do it, I must admit: it’s tempting. His trade value is at its peak right now. Provided the Twins would get a haul in exchange for him, I’d be okay with it.

And a potential Miranda bounceback is actually a big part of why trading Julien wouldn’t be the end of the world. If Miranda can figure it out and handle third base on a daily basis, you can simply move Royce Lewis to second. Sign, say, Mitch Garver to be your everyday first baseman, and use Julien and Jorge Polanco as trade pieces to bring in more pitching help. There you have it.
Not knowing if Miranda is, in fact, going to bounce back next year shouldn’t stop you from trading Julien in this scenario. After all, you do have Lewis at third at this moment and wouldn’t need Miranda to step in over there right away. But that would make trading Polanco a considerable risk.
Anyway, I, personally, wouldn’t trade Julien, but I understand why anyone would, and I don’t judge. If Julien’s rookie season wasn’t a fluke, the Twins might have in him a tremendous bat for a decade. And if Miranda can figure things out, this Twins lineup can become a serious threat.
What do you think? Would you trade Julien right now? If so, what kind of return would you expect?
 

Career minor leaguer Wilkin Ramírez had three cups of coffee in the bigs. He played 15 games for the Tigers in 2009, 20 with the Braves in 2011, and 35 with the Minnesota Twins in 2013.
Ramírez came to the Twins organization ahead of the 2012 season, batting .288 with 19 home runs and 61 RBI over 113 minor league games. He hit .404 with ten doubles in 57 at-bats during spring training in 2013, which earned him an Opening Day roster spot.
This was the best opportunity a team had ever given Ramírez at the Major League level, and things got off to a great start. His red hot spring carried over into the regular season. In a fourth outfielder role, he hit .381 with four RBI during April. But then health became an issue. Ramírez cooled off a bit in May, then had to miss 71 games due to concussion-like symptoms.
He returned to the diamond from his concussion in mid-August, and began to re-capture some of his April magic. Ramírez recorded a hit in nine of his first 12 games back, including two multi-hit games. But a fractured fibula on August 29th ended his season, and effectively his big league career.
The Twins removed Ramírez from the 40-man roster during the offseason. He re-signed with the club on a minor league deal, and spent the entire 2014 and 2015 seasons with Triple-A Rochester. Ramírez spent 2016 with the Bridgeport Bluefish of the Atlantic League, and then retired from professional baseball.

The Minnesota Twins go into the offseason with an excellent combination of top prospects and serious depth throughout the organization. With plenty of young players putting up nice seasons, a recent end-of-the-year update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list shows real movement.
For the Twins organization, prospect graduations took place this year in the form of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Louie Varland. It wasn’t just the guys that made it to the big leagues where substantial change was experienced. With a mid-October update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects, it’s clear there are a few names that jump off the page.
As Minnesota looks to find ways to supplement the major league roster for Rocco Baldelli this offseason, utilizing prospect capital could be a plan for Derek Falvey. The organization could see a change in payroll realities on the heels of a new television outcome, and trades may be a more cost-effective way to add than the free agent market. Beyond that, we saw what rookies can look like as contributors in 2023, and identifying who creates the next wave is a must.
Here are some notable names that saw their stock rise in 2023:
1. Walker Jenkins
Taking over the top spot from Brooks Lee, Jenkins went from the draft to pro ball and didn’t skip a beat. He blitzed through rookie ball and contributed at Single-A for Fort Myers. He probably could have handled High-A and helped with the Cedar Rapids Kernels Midwest League title. Jenkins is already preparing for 2024, and while he will be less than 12 months removed from high school, betting against a meteoric rise doesn’t seem like a good proposition. He’s probably not making it to The Show in the upcoming season, but getting to Minnesota, specifically St. Paul, would be an incredible outcome.
11. Kala'i Rosario
Drafted in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, the performance of Rosario (and Marco Raya) has helped to withstand the blow of missing on Aaron Sabato. Rosario had an .832 OPS as a 20-year-old at High-A Cedar Rapids, and his 21 homers indicate that he has come into his power. The strikeouts are still substantial, so reigning that in as he develops is a must, but there’s a legitimate power hitter here. Minnesota sent Rosario to the Arizona Fall League this year, and he’s hit five homers in his first 15 games. Continued development is needed for the Hawaii native, but he’s still young, and seeing what his season looks like at Double-A should be fun.
15. Cory Lewis
It’s easy to call Lewis’ season the best among the pitchers on the farm, given he won both the Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Year award and the same designation from Minnesota themselves. He was a 9th round pick that immediately made noise, and while he throws a knuckleball, he’s not a traditional knuckleballer. Lewis was an integral part of the Kernels championship run, and after posting solid numbers with Fort Myers, he got better when he went up a level. Lewis recently turned 23-years-old and should begin the year at Double-A. That would put him in play as a potential late-season option for a major league debut should things go well. Lewis doesn’t have the ceiling of Raya, but he could elevate to David Festa prospect status with Minnesota by sometime in 2024.
Here are a couple of names that saw their stock fall in 2023:
13. Connor Prielipp
The second-round pick in 2022 was coming off an injury when selected and hadn’t pitched since 2021 for Alabama. Minnesota took the time to get him back healthy, but it resulted in just 6 2/3 innings before going back under the knife. There’s no question that Prielipp has the skills to be an ace pitcher, but his inability to stay healthy has been problematic for years. He hasn’t done anything statistically to account for his fall, but being unavailable while others pass him by has dropped him out of the Twins top 10.
14. Yasser Mercedes
Mercedes came stateside in 2023 and saw a substantial dip in production. He was just 18 years old but dropped over .300 points in OPS while playing in just 25 games. His Dominican Summer League numbers still reflect his abilities, but it’s a reminder that international youth can be challenging to project. The hope would be that Mercedes can remain healthy in 2024 and spend a significant portion of the season playing for Fort Myers. He’s a speed and power threat who already has a good idea of the strike zone. The athleticism in the outfield plays, and that combination is an exciting one to dream about.
17. Simeon Woods Richardson
Acquired as the second piece in the Jose Berrios trade alongside Austin Martin, it was more of a learning year for the former top-100 prospect. The success from 2022 evaporated, and his one major league outing went terribly. Woods Richardson threw a career-high amount of innings, but he looked ineffective for most of them. There was a positive trend at the end of the season, but the gaudy walk rate continued to hold him back. This offseason is an important one for the former Blue Jays prospect, and ensuring he’s committed to training and focused on taking a step forward will show up in 2024.
What prospects are you most excited about in the season ahead? Is there a name or two you might be worried about?

Andy MacPhail, a former Twins GM who helped construct the 87 and 91 World Series Teams once said his goal was to promote 2-3 players per season up to the majors to fill roles on the team.  A good farm system can do that.  So, with that in mind let’s review the previous drafts in the Falvey era, not to grade them but to see how Falvey. Levine and company are doing in developing 2-3 starters/ regulars (or really players who can stay on the roster all year including bench and relievers) a year. Below the starters I will include several who at least played a role of some kind and list if anyone else still has a chance to make it to the show. Let me know if I forget someone.  I am not the draft hound as others here.  
2017: was their first draft year and the players who are starters include:
 3B Royce Lewis OF/DH Brent Rooker SP Bailey Ober And that is pretty much it.  There are others who may still make it up for a role including Blaine Enlow, Mark Contreras, Calvin Faucher is with the Rays, and maybe Andrew Bechtold
This draft is a success as Ober and Lewis are a big part of the team now and moving forward.
2018: has many potential role players or players who can carve out niches but there are some who start for the Twins and others who contribute.
 C Ryan Jeffers OF Trevor Larnarch RP Cole Sands RP Josh Winder RP Kody Funderburk The jury is still out on Larnarch.  Cole Sands and Josh Winder are likely to be 7th and 8th man on relief pitching with the potential to get better.  Kody Funderburk is just getting started but is off to a nice start and looks promising.  In terms of others who may make it up at some point include DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Chris Williams, Austin Schulfer
This draft needs a little more time to be judged.  Jeffers is a starter and Larnarch should be.  If Kody Funderburk becomes a solid reliever and we get some innings 20-50 from Winder and Sands in the pen in each of the next 2 seasons I would rate this draft as solid. 
2019: we had the misfortune of drafting Keoni Cavaco in the first round which set the draft performance back quite a bit.  But it looks like we still did well in this draft.
 Matt Wallner (also drafted by the Twins in 32nd round in 2016) Spencer Steer Eduouard Julien Louie Varland Inn addition to these guys Casey Legumina who we trade to the Reds for Farmer, Sawyer Gibson-Long who we traded to Detroit for Fulmer just made his major league debut and Brent Headrick pitched over 20 innings up here this season and is on the shuttle with Josh Winder and Cole Sands as the 7th and 8th relievers Alex Isola is a solid hitting C prospect in AA and Matt Canterino is a top pitching prospect who is injured. 
I gotta say this was a great draft for them. 
2020: was a lost season and while we only drafted 5 players, we do have 3 prospects from this draft.
Alerick Soularie in AA, Kala’I Rosario in A+, and Marco Raya. 
I would rate this draft a success if one player makes it up and is a starter.  The best bet is Raya if he can stay healthy. 
2021: We traded our first 4 picks from the 2021 draft to be more competitive last year.  Petty for Sonny Gray, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar were included in the trade for Mahle, and Cade Povich was included in the trade for Lopez from Baltimore. 
Festa is in AAA and is getting close to an opportunity at some point next season.  Christina Strand is now up with Cincinnati, Povich was in AA with a high strikeout rate.  Jaylin Nolin is a top prospect and Noah Miller is already a major league ready defensive specialist if he can learn to hit at all so he can at least be a solid bench player. 
I would say there are lots of depth players in this draft outside of Encarnacion-Strand if we get a few of them to contribute this can be a good draft.
2022: is too early to grade as is 2023 but there are many prospects from the 2022 draft who did well in their first full minor league season including Brooks Lee who made it to AAA and Tanner Schobel in AA. And the Twins were voted as having one of the top three drafts in terms of talent acquired in the draft in 2023. 
Overall, the Twins have consistently done a good job of developing players for the major leagues under Falvey.  I think the surprise is that they have not drafted and developed very much pitching, but have drafted many good hitters, who they developed for the lineup or trade.  I do see many promising starting pitchers down in A and A+ ball so it will be fun to see how that translates as they pitch at more advanced levels next year and so on.  I would rate the 2017 draft, 2019 draft, with 2022 and 2023 drafts looking to join them as the most successful and the 2018 draft is on the cusp.  2020 is an incomplete as COVID torpedoed the season.  The success of the 2021 draft will be determined by players no longer in the organization.  Do you feel like the Twins in the Falvey era are succeeding in drafting and developing players to contribute at the major leagues?

It was baseball road trip BONUS time this past weekend with buddies Steve-O & TJ as the Cedar Rapids Kernels wrapped up their series with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers on Sunday, August 20.   During our intitial road trip to Cedar Rapids at the end of June, one of our games was suspended due to rain after three innings.  Despite seeing the completion of said game the following day, followed by the regularly scheduled contest, we were told we could exchange the suspended game tickets for another Kernel's game.  So we did.   This time we made it a day trip, and in case you ever wondered, "Of course" I would drive seven hours (round trip from Red Wing, MN) in one day to catch 3 hours of baseball. 
 Zebby Matthews toted the rubber for the home team and really stood out on the mound touching 95 MPH several times.  He pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowed 5 hits, striking out 5 and walking 2.  Matthews is listed as the #25 Twins prospect on the MLB.  Former Twins Daily top 20 prospect Noah Miller displayed his MLB ready glove multiple times at shortstop and paced the offense with two hits.   Miller is batting .219 on the season, but the team has had him leading off regularly since infielder Tanner Schobel was promoted to AA on July 18, and this Kernel is beginning to pop.  After struggling intially at the top,  Miller is now hitting .266 for the month of August, with nearly half of his 17 hits of the extra base variety (6 doubles and 2 HRs.)  And remember...the kid is just 20 years old.  The decisive blow in the game for Cedar Rapids was struck by #13 TD prospect Kala'l Rosario who broke open a 1-0 game with a 3-run HR in the fourth, his 18th of the year to go along with 77 RBI.  No runs were scored over the last five innings.  4-1 Kernels was the final score. 
A couple of notes from a very hot Sunday where it was mostly sunny and 96.  Kernel leftfielder Carson McCusker , who was promoted from Fort Myers on August 3, had one of the toughest defensive innings I've seen in quite awhile.  In the top of the 4th inning on a single hit out to left, McCusker picked up the ball and then dropped it...and then picked it up again...and dropped it...then picked it up a third time and dropped it, allowing the runner Hendry Mendez to move up to second base (and later score.)  He was not given an error for playing hot potato this time, but two batters later in the SAME inning, on a base hit to the gap, the exact same thing happened, and this time he was given an error.    We were left wondering if he has forgot to wipe some sunscreen off his hands or something during that one inning.  It was just very odd.
Twins Daily #3 prosect Emmanuel Rodriguez had the day off.  The good guys silenced the Rattlers in the series winning 5 of their 6 meetings.  It was Team Photo Day #2, which paired perfectly with the players signing on the field after a Sunday game (see pic below.)   Twenty-seven autographs in twenty minutes (without pushing or shoving any kids.)  I also caught a quick selfie with pitching prospect Andrew Morris, because I just knew he was going to be chosen as the Minnesota Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Week this week.

The Cedar Rapids Kernels are winding down their regular season with just one home series left, August 29 - Sept. 3 vs. Lake County, split between two series on the road at South Bend and at the Wisconsin Timer Rattlers.  If you've never been down to Cedar Rapids, they have a nice facilty, terrific fans, and a very good baseball team.  The Kernels will open the playoffs on Tuesday, September 12, at an opponent TBD, before hosting game two on Sept. 14, and game three if necessary on the 15th.

 

One of the Twins strengths this season has been its ability to pitch. Whether it's from the starting rotation or the bullpen, the staff has been fantastic this year. However, one prospect who was moving up and hoping to be a part of this staff, Matt Canterino, the Twins #9 ranked prospect by MLB.com is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. I recently caught up with him to find out how things are going in his recovery, where he's at in the rehab process and a more!
DC: how's the rehab going? Where are you at in the process?
MC: Rehab is going very well! I am regularly throwing bullpens twice per week, and I have just started touching 90 miles per hour again. The elbow has been recovering well, and the goal is to start throwing to hitters around the middle of September.
DC: What has the process been like this time for you compared to previous injuries?
MC: It’s different this time because there is more of a set structure for a return from surgery. In the past, when I’ve attempted rest and rehab for my lingering elbow issue, the limiting factor was always waiting for my elbow to feel healthy enough to throw. With surgery, it’s been more about dealing with the slow progression of a 13 month long recovery.
DC: When you first got hurt with this injury, what was the biggest hurdle for you?
MC: My biggest hurdle was figuring out if surgery was the right course of action for me. My UCL tear was not something that obviously needed surgery at the time of injury, but after multiple failed attempts to rest and rehab my forearm and elbow, it became clear that Tommy John Surgery was the best option.
DC: Has this injury and rehab been more mentally or physically tough/challenging for you?
MC: I would say the mental aspect of seeing an entire season go by without playing is the toughest part. I really wanted to contribute and help the Twins organization this year, but it just didn’t work out. I’ve gotten over that melancholy feeling a bit by really honing in on some of my development goals as a pitcher during my current build up. 
DC: How do you feel you're progressing as it relates to being fully healthy?
MC: I feel extremely confident in my ability to come back as a better pitcher than what I was pre-surgery.
DC: Where have you been able to rehab at?
MC: I’ve been rehabbing at the Twins Complex in Fort Myers since the start of Spring Training, and will continue there through the season.
DC: How has your family support assisted you in getting through this rehab and your previous ones as well?
MC: My loved ones are the best at helping me keep my head on straight through this process. There are always ups and downs when dealing with injury and rehab, so to have someone I can vocalize those situations to and trust their input on how to keep level-headed and optimistic is beyond important.
DC: Have you heard anything from the Twins recently and how often do you keep in contact with them?
MC: I am in contact with coaching staff everyday at the facility, and they do a great job of mapping out the rehab process for me. Everyone is optimistic about my progression thus far.
DC: How far removed from your surgery are you?
MC: My surgery date was August 24th of 2022, so I am just over 11 months out.
DC: Last question Matt, what is your off-season rehab going to look like and will it ramp up as you approach ST, and do you anticipate being full healthy for ST?
MC: The goal is to be built up and healthy for next Spring Training. My buildup through the end of the season is still subject to some change, but, for the most part, the hope is to have a regular off season this Winter and be fully primed for a healthy 2024.
Thanks to Matt for taking the time to catch up with me via Twitter. 
Follow me on Twitter @devlin_clark84

System overview:
A lot changes in half a season. Royce Lewis finally departed the prospect list nearly 6 (six!) years after the team drafted him first overall in 2017. Edouard Julien and Louie Varland also lost their prospect status, weakening the high-end of the list despite a recent influx of incredible talent. Speaking of which…
Walker Jenkins! The Twins actually did it; they eschewed their conservative desires and simply took the best player available at number 5: a sweet-swinging high-schooler who drew incredible reviews for his makeup. You could probably write a book with the superlative ink spilled about Jenkins over the past few days, but there's a good reason for that: he’s a stud. He immediately gives the team a fascinating, dynamic top three of Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and himself. He hasn’t even been signed yet, so let’s not get carried away, but it’s certainly an exciting time for the Twins system.
Which, I think, is the strongest it’s been in a few years. The team is now undeniably at the heart of the pitching movement, churning out and improving arms at a breakneck pace, making their pitching prospects that much more exciting. There are about four or five legitimately impressive arms in the system drafted in 2022, and with about 60 pitchers taken in this draft, a few more are certainly on their way. It’s madness. But it’s a good kind of madness. 
I’ve done something different with this list. As you’ll see, batters and pitchers are separated—something I’ve always felt should be done given the differences between the two. This is especially true these days, as any arm with one or two interesting characteristics is millimeters away from breaking out; hitters don’t currently enjoy such an advantage. Here’s the list:
Hitters:
Brooks Lee, 22, 5’11” / 205 - SS Now that Royce Lewis is finally no longer a prospect (for the first time since 2017!), Brooks Lee takes over as the best prospect in Minnesota’s system. There’s a lot to like in his tools; his defense isn’t consistently excellent at shortstop—he’s missing the kind of raw athletic force that, say, Carlos Correa possesses—but he’s nimble enough to make plenty of wow plays and could stick at the position in the majors. If not, he’ll be fine at third or second. The Twins appear dead-set on getting him reps here, as he’s barely started anywhere else in 2023. 
Offensively, he’ll likely hit, but his bat isn’t bulletproof. He doesn’t own any one overwhelming attribute, but he does most things pretty well and should never embarrass himself with poor swing decisions. Overall, he looks a lot like Marcus Semien with a little less pop—but I will warn that the lack of consistent game power is a concern. Really, though, most knocks feel like extreme nit-picking for a 22-year-old holding his own at AA in his first full year in organized ball. He’ll be fine and should join the Twins sometime in 2024.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, 20, 5’10” / 210 - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez is a lesson in two parts: one, that monthly stat-worrying over prospects is often foolish; and slack should be handed to players returning from major surgery. Rodriguez spent April and May striking out at Gallo-ian rates before deflating his whiffs to palatable levels; he’s punched out at a 25.5% clip since June started. And while that cutoff is as arbitrary as any, I think it’s clear that Rodriguez is far more comfortable at the plate these days than when the season started.
He still has laughable power as his swing-as-hard-as-humanly-possible approach yields monster homers and titanic bullets shot all around the field, offering welts to fielders who stand in their way. The whiffs will probably always be present, though, as he has a habit of running deep counts. If he continues to evolve, he could be the toolsy stud center fielder of the future for the Twins. The bust potential is high, though.
Walker Jenkins, 18, 6’3” / 190 - OF Surprise! After blowing smoke around Jacob Gonzalez for a few months, the Twins took the sane route and drafted an excellent high school prospect. I’ll repeat the common refrain here; Jenkins could have gone 1st in any normal draft, and the Twins are deeply fortunate to have such an impact talent in their farm system.
It’s a little silly trying to rank recently-selected players alongside pros with hundreds of at-bats under their belt, but you have to put the guy somewhere, and I thought right behind Emmanuel Rodriguez was the best choice. I don’t really have a good reason for this choice; he can move up quickly with early success.
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Matt Wallner, 25, 6’5” / 220 - OF The man who just cannot find a roster spot. Matt Wallner is the antithesis of Max Kepler: he’s going to swing hard, clobber a lot of baseballs, and play bumbling, clumsy defense in right field. We’ve seen his style of play work at times, as apparent by his little MLB playing time this year, but his extreme contact deficiency will spell ugly hitting streaks, and I worry what major-league pitchers are going to do to him once they become comfortable. Still, he rakes. His max exit velocity is already elite, and it’s not impossible to imagine an Austin Riley-like metamorphosis from hulking slugger to well-rounded nuclear offensive force.
Defensively, Wallner is going to cost the Twins runs. He may earn some back with his arm—a true bazooka that will vex greedy baserunners, or just keep them stationary in fear—but the dropoff from Kepler to Wallner will be obvious. Minnesota’s favor towards flyball pitchers, and their insistence on playing Kepler and Gallo may keep him hidden on the periphery longer than most have the stomach for.
Tanner Schobel, 22, 5’9” / 170 - 2B/3B Tanner Schobel is something of a throwback to the 2000s Twins: a slick do-it-all infielder with above-average speed and a good chance at becoming a roughly 2 WAR player for more years than you realize. He’s even added more ISO (in a pitcher’s league!) as his extended play with Cedar Rapids has been powerful. The thump may not be a mirage; Schobel slugged .689 his sophomore season at Virginia Tech. He loads up like Eugenio Saurez, allowing the ball to travel a little further than most before the full power of his torque releases, usually in a punishing manner (to the ball).
Defensively, Schobel has mostly split time between second and third—his two most natural positions. He could potentially play shortstop, but that position has seen a lot of Noah Miller and Jose Salas, making it difficult for Schobel to earn playing time there. Overall, Schobel fits a likeable infielder mold that many good-to-great players have thrived in.
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Yasser Mercedes, 18, 6’2” / 175 - OF An expensive international signing from a few years ago, Yasser Mercedes showcased a dynamic offensive profile in 2022 before completely falling off a cliff in his first taste of stateside ball. Was he a victim of untrustworthy DSL stats? Is this a fluke? It’s far too early to tell; for now he’ll stay stagnant in my prospect list. 
Austin Martin, 24, 6’0” / 185 - SS/OF Oh what a fall for Austin Martin. You know the story by now: his flaming college performance capitulated immediately after the Blue Jays drafted him, and now the Twins are looking to get him back in the groove. 2022 was almost a complete loss, but Martin flashed life in September, and had a respectable enough AFL to soften his fall from grace.
Frustratingly, an injury knocked Martin out of commission until a few days ago, when he finally popped back up on the Saints’ roster. A strong showing could earn him a quick promotion, as Royce Lewis is currently on the mend well until August; José Miranda took his place but could be shuffled if his bat doesn’t turn around. Hopefully Martin finds the minimum power needed to become a quality major-league bat, because his potential is of a classic two-hole batter, slashing hits across the field while stealing at whim. 
Luke Keaschall, 20, 6’1” / 190 - INF The Twins selected Luke Keaschall—an infielder out of Arizona State—with their second-round pick in 2023. Plenty of excellent alumnus call that college home, and Keaschall could join them soon, as he absolutely smoked PAC-12 pitching with a .353/.443/.725 slashline. We’ll understand Keaschall more as a prospect in time, so consider this ranking very loose; he could move up or down easily. 
Noah Miller, 20, 5’11” / 190 - SS Alright, I was probably wrong about Noah Miller. I grasped tightly onto his excellent strikeout-to-walk rate in 2022, but now that has evaporated, leaving a powerless, on-base-less profile only buoyed by his excellent shortstop defense. He added a tinge of power in 2023, upping his ISO almost .030 points up to .094, but that hasn’t been enough to save his hitting, and infielders who hit like this need a legendary glove to stick around in MLB for any serious period of time. 
Noah Cardenas, 23, 5’11” / 195 - C/1B I still cannot fathom why Noah Cardenas is not more well-received as a prospect. He’s hitting for a 129 wRC+ with the Kernels—as a catcher, mind you—after crushing A ball with similar vigor. His pop is more in doubles than homers, but he can take a walk like no one’s business, and that kind of plate control should translate well as he progresses up through the minors.
The bugaboo: his defense. The Twins know this, and often spell time at 1st and DH (although Andrew Cossetti’s presence feeds into this decision as well). We don’t have public catching defensive metrics, but Eric Longenhagen rated him a 30-grade defender, and I’m willing to believe in his assessment. Still, the Twins were able to turn Mitch Garver into a workable defensive catcher—and Ryan Jeffers wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher either—so it’s very possible that Cardenas follows those two and blossoms into an everyday player. 
Danny De Andrade, 19, 5’11” / 190 - SS We’re finally seeing Danny De Andrade playing in full-season ball and the results have been… whelming. He’s walked a fair amount, but the power is merely ok, and he’s probably not going to play shortstop long-term. Still, this is a 19-year-old; picking on him too much seems like an unwise decision. He should rise up this list further with time. 
Jose Salas, 20, 6’0” / 191 - INF At this point, it’s unclear what Jose Salas does well. He’s in the middle of a dreadful repetition of A+ ball in which his slashline is so porous that I don’t even want to type it out. You don’t need to look it up; it’s bad. Normally this kind of performance would take a player completely off the list, but prospect evaluators swore he was around a 45 FV player coming into the year, and I’ll offer some slack in this regard. It won’t last long unless something changes quickly. 
Kala’i Rosario, 21, 6’0” / 205 - OF It’s been an impressive rebound for Kala’i Rosario, who wandered the prospect desert after being selected in the 2020 draft. Once a pure power threat, Rosario has improved in each stat of his triple slash-line, giving him a mean offensive profile that Midwest pitchers haven’t figured out yet. He even sliced a few points off his strikeout rate. 
Yet the hit tool remains shaky. There are major leaguers who can make it work with a swing-hard-and-maybe-something-good-will-happen approach, but it’s a wasteland of batters who pitchers figured out quickly; whether Rosario is any different will be seen shortly. He should see a promotion to AA soon, and his immense power could carry him to the majors. 
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Andrew Cossetti, 23, 5’10” / 215 - C/1B Andrew Cossetti mashed A-ball with a hilarious .330/.462/.607 slashline before the Twins showed mercy on poor Florida State League arms, sending the menace to Cedar Rapids. His offense has cooled, but he still settled into a firmly above-average performance—especially for a catcher holding a .262 BABIP. He often spends time at 1st also, perhaps signalling Minnesota’s thoughts on his ability to stick as a backstop, but the bat may be real, and that’s enough to make Cossetti an exciting name to watch. 
Jose Rodriguez, 18, 6’2” / 196 - OF Jose Rodriguez popped 13 homers in an impressive somehow-young-for-the-level DSL debut and is now hitting for a 93 wRC+ with the FCL Twins. Like Mercedes, the question regarding untrustworthy DSL numbers exists here, but I’ll give Rodriguez some benefit of the doubt considering his absurd youth and small sample of plate appearances at his new level. 
Yunior Severino, 23, 6’0” / 189 - 2B/3B This is now the third season in a row that Yunior Severino has mashed the ball; his profile still scares the crap out of me. He makes his bread with power and walks, but the walks have dropped off since he reached AA, and we’re left with a high ISO/high BABIP batting line that, to me, seems unsustainable outside the Texas League. Maybe that’s unfair, but there’s also probably a reason the team has been slow to send him to AAA. 
DaShawn Kiersey Jr., 26, 6’0” / 195 - OF Is this a toolsy outfielder finally breaking out, or an old-for-the-level batter picking on pitchers who don’t know any better? Who knows—and the truth probably lies outside my black-and-white dichotomy—but, there’s no way to say it any other way: DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is raking.
His season under-the-hood looks largely the same as 2022, save for a nearly .040 point bump in ISO, but Kiersey Jr. has already clobbered nine homers; it took him three minor league seasons after being drafted to hit his first longball. Throw in game-altering stolen base potential, and Kiersey Jr. is a compelling late-breakout outfielder who’ll need to claw past some other uber-talented players if he ever sees the majors. He’s blistered the ball since June started, turning in a .347/.407/.579 slash with seven steals.
Ben Ross, 22, 6’0” / 180 - INF If you want a guy who can rake across the field, Ben Ross is your guy. He’s bopped 13 homers in a notorious pitchers league, all while playing at 1st base, shortstop, 3rd base, left field, center field, and right field (he played second last year, but not this year). Whether he’s adept at all these positions or merely a warm body capable of moonlighting at them will be seen, but the profile is certainly fascinating. He could probably catch if need be. 
Misael Urbina, 21, 5’10” / 190 - OF Misael Urbina is continuing his every-other-year pattern of not hitting. It appeared he bounced back nicely after a truly awful 2021 season, but not one number of his A+ slashline starts with a “.3” and, yeah, that’s not gonna play. The talent is still evident, but smooth sailing it has not been, and I worry that Urbina is not going to live up to the promise he showed in 2019.
Aaron Sabato, 24, 6’2” / 230 - 1B It’s been a molasses-slow movement through the system for the 2020 1st-round selection. He hasn’t lived up to the hype he saw out of college, but—somehow—he’s dutifully earned promotions and usually turns in above-average performances after becoming acclimated to his competition. That’s not what you want from a 1st-round pick, but there’s still a very real chance Sabato can contribute to the major-league team.
Pitchers:
Marco Raya, 20, 6’0” / 170 - RHP The recently promoted Marco Raya represents Minnesota’s best shot at a top-of-the-rotation arm. That isn’t to say that he’s a lock to dominate—and, indeed, undervalued arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have proven that the best MLB pitchers aren’t always the well-known guys—but, if anyone here is a betting man, Raya would be the favored horse. He attacks batters with an ideal vertical fastball and a pair of devastating breaking balls, known to bring hitters to their knees if they swing improperly.
Despite being over three years younger than the average competition at A+ ball, Raya smoked hitters, punching out nearly 30% of batters faced while chopping two percentage points off his walk rate from last year. It’s difficult to parse whether this was Raya just being plain better than these hitters, as the Twins capped his innings total in his starts at four, but the numbers are hard to ignore, and the team may be off-setting their conservatism with an aggressive promotion to the Wind Surge. The Texas League is known for hitting; good luck to Raya with his new competition. 
David Festa, 23, 6’6” / 185 - RHP There’s a strong argument for David Festa as the better pitching prospect, and, in the end, Raya won by a sliver. This is no knock on Festa; the Seton Hall product followed a now well-paved road set by the Falvey Twins, as he almost immediately enjoyed and sustained a four-tick velocity bump. The strikeouts soon came. 
With effective offerings in his sharp slider and surprisingly effective changeup (surprising only in that every pitching prospect has a “developing” cambio), Festa has impressive peripherals at AA, even if the walks have trended up with subsequent promotions. He was recently added to the Futures Game roster, and could see time with the Twins in 2024 if the current glut of 40-man options prove insufficient. 
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Connor Prielipp, 22, 6’2” / 210 - LHP Almost a year after the Twins selected him, Connor Prielipp remains a mystery. He made exactly one start for the Kernels before hitting the IL, shuttled off to the grand nothingness that is the Twins’ prospect injury list, only evident through occasional tweets and whispers. The team finally ended his season, giving us 1 (one) start and no new knowledge on what Prielipp could become.
It’s frustrating given Prielipp’s potentially dominant slider; a healthy Prielipp could easily be one of the best prospects in Minnesota’s system, but he can now only claim a combined 34 ⅔ innings between his time at Alabama and in pro ball. What will eventually become of the 22-year-old is just as unclear as when the Twins drafted him in 2022. 
Charlee Soto, 17, 6’5” / 197 - RHP If you built a pitcher in a lab, this is what he would look like—6 foot 5 inches with a big fastball and yeah, you get the idea. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs described his heater as sink-oriented, which does differentiate him from your typical ride/carry guy so coveted by MLB teams these days.
Like Walker, ranking Soto is a fool’s errand. He’s even younger than your typical high schooler at 17, and I doubt we’ll understand Soto more as a prospect for at least a few years.
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Simeon Woods Richardson, 22, 6’3” / 210 - RHP Disastrous. Following a minor stabilizing season at AA and AAA last year, Simeon Woods Richardson is imploding in 2023. His K-BB% is 3.7%, far far far below the ground level acceptable for even a below-average major-league arm. 
This is nothing like the pitcher the Twins expected to receive in 2021—and he’s so far removed from his performance at any part of his minor league career that an injury is the only real explanation for his troubles. Minnesota pulled this same thing with Jordan Balazovic in 2022, allowing him to take drastic lumps while recovering from an injury, but at least Balazovic still had the Ks; Woods Richardson has nothing. With other arms clearly ahead of him in the depth chart, Woods Richardson’s path to the majors appears blocked, or at least heavily guarded.
Jordan Balazovic, 24, 6’5” / 215 - RHP I think Jordan Balazvoic has been ranked differently in each list I’ve made, and I don’t think that’s a good thing. He has rebounded nicely from his putrid 2022 season, and parlayed a strikeout/walk oriented AAA performance into… a BABIP-aided 1.80 ERA over 10 major-league innings. No, I don’t get it either.
There’s legitimate upside, though, with Balazovic’s killer vertical fastball/curve approach that could transform him into the new Griffin Jax. That may be a disappointment from the height of his prospect days in 2018 and 2019, but Jax is a valuable piece on the Twins; hopefully Balazovic will be as well. 
Blayne Enlow, 24, 6’3” / 170 (doubtful, but it’s what Fangraphs says) - RHP Risen from prospect ashes like the phoenix of old, Blayne Enlow might actually be a major-league arm. After being DFA’d and left out to dry last year, Enlow remained a Twin, crushing AA while halving his walk rate and adding a few more strikeouts to the mix. The promotion to AAA came soon.
His time with the Saints hasn’t been as fruitful, but 17 ⅓ innings is a small sample, and I’m willing to bet on a future where Enlow can find an effective role in the majors. 
Brent Headrick, 25, 6’6” / 235 - LHP I still don’t really know what to make of Brent Headrick. He has a tremendous and a disastrous fastball, leading me to believe that he’s going to be a reliever long-term, not a starter. His height, odd arm action, and command should secure him a spot on the team in some capacity, but that fastball problem is dire, and it may not be easy to fix. Headrick gets a leg-up on other, similar pitchers because of his major-league readiness. 
Cory Lewis, 22, 6’5” / 220 - RHP One of Minnesota’s many interesting pitchers from the 2022 draft, Cory Lewis has been a buzzsaw. There’s nothing overwhelming about his profile, but he can command the hell out of his fastball and slider while occasionally tossing in a knuckleball, just for fun. 
Lewis’ ordinary draft stock, and his status as a developed college arm makes it difficult to decipher his undeniable dominance; I’ll keep him here for now—right in the middle of the pitcher melee that separates the best pitching prospects in the system from the rest of the herd. This is not a slight. Minnesota has proven wise in turning arms like Lewis into quality major leaguers, so this isn’t your normal piece of the scrap pile of young pitchers.
Andrew Morris, 21, 6’0” / 195 - RHP Andrew Morris hasn’t been as overwhelming as his 2022 draftee peers, but he owns a potential outlier offering, and that buoys his profile while making him a real prospect. The pitch? A carry-monster fastball that usually sits in the lower 90s but can scratch 95—something that Bryce Miller has proven can dominate by itself. Throw in a solid slider, and Morris could easily be yet another college breakout arm for the Twins. 
Zebby Matthews, 23, 6’5” / 225 - RHP Zebby Matthews tore up the Florida State League with Maddux-like dominance, creating an air of excitement around the Western Carolina University product, before a promotion to Cedar Rapids shot that down. His xFIP is still fine, but his strikeout rate plummeted. The rest of the season will tell us who the real Matthews is.
There’s still a lot to like in his profile; he throws six legitimate pitches with good control, and that alone could carry him to the majors. The cutter appears to be the critical offering.
C.J. Culpepper, 21, 6’3” / 193 - RHP You could basically copy/paste the previous sentiments regarding A-ball dominance. C.J. Culpepper—no relation to Daunte, trust me—earned the second-highest signing bonus of any California Baptist University player ever (name me the two MLB players from that college without looking it up and I’ll give you five dollars) and almost immediately crushed his competition with the Mighty Mussels. A promotion to Cedar Rapids cooled his stats (in only two starts), so, again, Culpepper’s prospect status is unclear.
Still, a 27.9 K% cannot be ignored, and Culpepper soon could rise further up this list with more impressive starts.
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Alejandro Hidalgo, 20, 6’1” / 160 - RHP I haven’t seen many pitchers like Alejandro Hidalgo. His command is either fine—with maybe a walk or two here or there—or it’s disastrous, completely wiping out his outing with four, five, six walks over a shockingly low inning total. When he’s on, he has a devastating fastball/changeup combo and looks lethal; when he’s not, duck. 
Ronny Henriquez, 23, 5’10” / 155 - RHP Entering the season as a dark-horse, hipster pick to carry important major-league frames, Ronny Henriquez has stumbled through a difficult season. An elbow injury was the first culprit, then he walked everyone and their mother at AAA, and a recent oblique strain knocked him out of commission for two weeks. He’s only allowed one run since returning, but the walks are still uncharacteristically overwhelming; he’ll need to fix that issue before he can rebound on this list. 
Matt Canterino, 25, 6’2” / 222 - RHP Matt Canterino has not thrown a competitive pitch in over a year. Given his injuries and missing innings, it would be a miracle for Canterino to become an effective starter; the bullpen is his likely future home. If shorter bursts can keep him healthy, he could dominate in that role. 
Kyle Jones, 23, 6’1” / 200 - RHP Yet another 2022 draft pitcher, Jones isn’t quite the strikeout artist seen in his peers, but he acquires groundballs at a hefty rate while keeping his whiffs and walks around league average. This looks like a vanilla, but safe profile that could earn him under-the-radar promotions to the system’s higher levels.
 

The Luis Arraez trade is getting embarrassing for the Twins
Arraez has THREE five-hit games this month. The most five-hit games by any player in a career since 1956 is ten by Pete Rose.
JOE NELSON
 
Arraez has THREE five-hit games this month. The most five-hit games by any player in a career since 1956 is ten by Pete Rose.
Luis Arraez looks like a cinch to win the National League batting title and he could threaten to become the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez, the right-hander the Twins received by trading Arraez to the Marlins, has been an average starting pitcher. 
Arraez is a hitting machine and the Twins may have made a gigantic mistake by letting him go in an effort to quench the franchise's thirst for a high-end starting pitcher. 
https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/the-luis-arraez-trade-is-getting-embarrassing-for-the-twins?fbclid=IwAR1nSzZ5oMX_gZhjU9hBH3OFoZAlrH54ZWXoiCTv8jAmXIPGI19VeKNDglE
 
My view from the beginning was that this trade would backfire. Obviously the jury is still out and hopefully Lopez will be the guy the Twins need to anchor the front of the rotation, even more so with the likelihood Sonny Gray is gone after this season.
 

I want to begin by emphasizing the point that there is less than a 0.01% chance of this ever happening, but reading Kiley McDaniel's mock draft the other day and his mention of "chaotic vibe" got me thinking about a scenario that would qualify as "Willi Castro-level chaos".
I want to be clear that this is not something I personally would want to see the Twins do. I think the clear and obvious choice should be to draft and develop whatever top 5 talent drops to them. But if that's not something they are interested in doing, I think this is a unique way to capitalize on that picks value.
Let's layout some assumptions for this scenario.
Assumptions:
There is a consensus Top 5 in this year's draft, all of whom are of a talent level that would be in consideration at #1 overall most years.  The Twins may not be interested in all 5 of those players: They are most interested in Crews/Langford, but in talking with teams/agents leading up to the draft, neither of them is going to make it to #5.  Their draft models value hitters over pitchers, and they wouldn't be willing to take Paul Skenes at #5. The are looking for more immediate impact than a HS draftee could provide, and they wouldn't be willing to take Max Clark or Walker Jenkins at #5. The draft plays out the same exact way as Kiley's mock draft (Clark--> Crews--> Langford--> Jenkins--> Skenes) The Twins Front Office is starting to feel the heat and have decided 'Screw building for the future, we've lost 18 straight playoff games, no more', and are willing to go to some unconventional measures to improve this team at the trade deadline. All players mentioned from here on out will continue to perform at their current All-Star caliber level and remain healthy. Based on the above, what if the Twins approached the Pirates on Draft Weekend and gave them the option to walk away with two of the top five talents in this class?
The Trade: Mitch Keller + David Bednar for Twins #5 Overall Pick
Now I know what you're thinking. I can hear you screaming at your computer right now. "You idiot! You can't trade draft picks!". Yup, I know and am aware of that, I promise. You can trade PTBNL however, which is our little loophole to bring this back to reality. Obviously the Twins can't just send the #5 pick and associated bonus pool money to the Pirates. But taking a page out of the 2014 Padres book, they could make a deal with whomever the draft at #5 overall on a list of possible Players To Be Named Later, which would send that prospect over to the Pirates immediately after the World Series.
Why would the Pirates consider doing this?
The Pirates have been a nice story to start the year, but I don't think they (or anyone else) really believe they're close to contending. They're in this for the long run, and getting two top 5 talents in a generational draft would be a great way to do that. If this were agreed upon pre-draft, it opens up some really interesting possibilities for them to get creative. Assuming the word leading up to the draft is that neither of the College OF will be available at 5, that leaves Skenes/Jenkins/Clark as the three options. None of whom the Twins want long-term, but all of whom hold immense trade value. The Pirates lean into Kiley's "chaos scenario" and take Max Clark #1 overall because he will take the biggest discount, thereby allowing them to float a first round talent down to their second round pick. Assuming the draft plays out as assumed above, that would leave the Pirates walking away with Clark + Skenes + [Insert additional first round talent]. Why would the Twins consider doing this?
Assuming the two College OF's they really want will not be available at #5, this gives the Twins a chance to capitalize on the trade value of one of the talents they aren't as interested in. The assumption here is that both Keller and Bednar will remain healthy and continue pitching at the level they have been. That means a sub-3.00 era, top of the rotation level for Keller, and A low-2's era, shutdown level closer for Bedner. Keller comes with 2.5 years of team control along with 3.5 years of control for Bednar, so you're essentially trading for the same amount of team control as you would get with the #5 pick. The Twins would go into the post-season with a top-3 rotation (Gray/Ryan/Lopez/Keller), plus a lights out bullpen duo in Bednar/Duran. I know the pitching hasn't exactly been the problem this year like it has in years past, but perhaps they choose to just lean into it being a strength and assume some of the bats will turn things around to be at least a league average offense. While the perception of this trade would be "The Twins traded Paul Skenes for Keller/Bednar", the reality would be that they chose Keller/Bednar > Jacob Gonzalez/[Insert second tier college hitter]. Again, the assumption is (right or wrong) the Twins would not be willing to use their pick on Skenes/Clark/Jenkins, instead preferring a college bat.  
Is this something I would want the Twins to do or be excited about the Twins doing? No. I think they were gifted a Top 5 pick in a draft with 5 top tier players, and to waste that by taking someone besides one of those players would be stupid and a fire-able offense. But if some of what has been leaking out is based in reality, I would rather see them utilize that pick value like this, rather than squandering it on a Jacob Gonzalez or Jacob Wilson-level player.
Would love to hear peoples thoughts and reactions if you have any! All I ask is that you consider the assumptions/scenario I laid out. This is all hypothetical and has absolutely 0% chance of ever happening, but I thought it was a unique idea and wanted to take some time to write it all out to see what it would look like.

The Twins' offense this spring has been frustrating and disappointing to this point in the season. Any team with the worst team batting average in MLB wouldn't be satisfied with their hitting, add in an inordinate number of strikeouts and puzzling underperformance from high-priced talent and it figures that players could be booed at home. As compared to when the 2022 season ended, this club is healthy, especially on the position player side. Max Kepler will be out for ten days, Royce Lewis will finish his rehab assignment at the end of May and everyone else that figured to contribute this year is available. 
The most recently available player is perhaps the most significant. Alex Kirilloff returned from the Injured List and rehab just over a week ago. The Twins and your's truly see a potential All-Star--someone who can both get on base and hit for power, who can lengthen the lineup and put runs on the board. Much of the reason for optimism is from his dominance in the minor leagues and brief flashes of a healthy AK mashing major league pitching. 
It's all dependent on a wrist. Kirilloff has had his last two seasons ended early because of wrist pain and subsequent surgery. The second surgery was major, some  have called it experimental, The Twins have brought AK on slowly, with no real setbacks. So far, so good. The results on the field have been excellent (only 22 plate appearances), Seven hits in sixteen at-bats, with six walks and three strikeouts. Two homers and a double. When the wrist began to impact Kirilloff in the last two years, he quit driving the ball and hit lots of weak grounders. So far, he's hit a high percentage of balls on the ground, but he's hitting the ball hard and the two homers yesterday show that he can drive the ball. 
What's reasonable for this year? AK should get something north of 400 plate appearances and if he can become a full-time fixture, he could get to 500. In 500 plate appearances, perhaps he could hit as many as 20 homers and I think the batting average could be above .300, which would make him a unicorn. I think if he walks at a 2:3 ratio to strike outs, it would show newfound selectivity. He has not chased out of the zone and has taken his walks so far. A .300 BA combined with a > 10% walk rate would be outstanding for a player in his first full year. 
I'm pulling the projected numbers out of the air. I am also showing my optimism for Kirilloff's ability. I think he can be an elite offensive player and a fine defender. Someone who can really get the offense rolling. I hope in a few months, that people will say this blog has aged well. 

As a kid, I remember looking at batting average as the key to the value of a player. OK, not every player, as I was a Harmon Killebrew fan, and he never really hit for average. That should have alerted me to the fact that not all base hits are created equal - and those that sail over the fences are far more valuable than a single to center field.
There are a lot of people who complain about trading away last year's AL batting champion, Louis Arreaz. That said, while he hits for a very high average, just how impactful is he? I would argue not that impactful.
Let's compare two players so far this year - and they are night and day difference makers. Introducing Joey Gallo. 
Gallo is an all or nothing player offensively. He strikes out a lot, but when he gets hit, he hits the ball hard. Many of those get out of the ballpark or at least produce extra base hits.
Arraez is the oppposite - he doesn't really hit the ball hard, but he gets a lot of base hits. Through tonight, his batting average is a gaudy .379. By contrast, Gallo is at .209.
So who is more effective? I would argue it is about a wash, and, given the many more at bats for Arraez, Gallo is more impactful
In 132 at bats, Arraez has scored just 14 runs. That is largely because it takes a lot to score a run when you just hit a single or walk, and that is what Arraez mostly does. With 132 at bats, Arraez' 50 hits are mostly singles (7 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run), so his OPS is.905. That's pretty good, but remember the runs scored thing.
In just 86 at bats, Gallo has scored 16 runs, and has a similar .903 OPS. The difference is he drives the ball - he has 18 hits, and nearly all are extra base hits (5 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 home runs). So Gallo is hitting .209, and Arraez is hitting .379 - but the impact factors in baseball suggest Gallo has been more valuable offensively.

The Twins concluded the first month of the 2023 regular season with a 17-12 record. They stand 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the mediocre AL Central Division. What was projected to be a tough April schedule ended up being very manageable. The Twins played seven games against the New York Yankees, winning four, at an ideal time, with the Yankee pitching staff and lineup hamstrung by injuries. They also played the World Champion Astros, winning two of three, while the Astros were in an early season funk.  
How did the Twins manage to win 17 games? Pitching is the easy answer. The Twins allowed only 108 runs in 29 games, second best runs per game in the AL. Meanwhile, they scored 134 runs, seventh best, despite early struggles and cold weather. The offensive production was inconsistent until the just-completed home stand where the Twins scored six runs or more in six of the last seven games. That production was fueled by the long ball. The Twins have homered in eleven consecutive games and have already hit nine three-run homers--last year they hit seventeen in the entire season. 
The pitching started out fantastic. There has been some regression to the mean, but there is still a lot to like. The top three starters have been healthy and effective. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have taken the ball and most often completed six or more effective innings. Gray is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.77 ERA, Ryan is 5-0 with a fine 2.81 ERA and after two consecutive subpar starts Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Lopez has the most innings pitched and strikeouts and his first four starts were outstanding. The bottom half of the rotation has predictably been less effective and now seems dogged by injury. After two decent starts, Kenta Maeda has left his last two starts due to injury and was knocked around before leaving in his last start. Tyler Mahle pitched pretty well, but left his last start and now will be shut down for most of the month of May. The oft-noted rotation depth will be utilized with Bailey Ober already joining the rotation and most likely Louie Varland the next man up. The Twins bullpen has been a top heavy affair. Closer Jhoan Duran wows with his awesome stuff although he's had a few hiccups so far. Jorge Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run, but allowed some hits and an inherited runner in his last two outings, Griffin Jax has been mostly effective although batted ball luck makes his numbers look pretty pedestrian and Caleb Thielbar continues to thrive with one poor outing in an otherwise outstanding month of April. Long relief has done their job, providing lots of innings and pitches in the few one-sided affairs the Twins have played. The problem is the other guys. Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran were supposed to be reliable bridges to the aforementioned late-inning high-leverage guys and they haven't been effective. Alcala was sent to the minors and Moran looks like he won't be trusted, at least for the near future. Emilio Pagan also provokes anxiety, although he too only had one really bad outing. 
The Twins' defense is pretty sound so far this year. There isn't a lot of range outside of Taylor, but most everyone is reliable at turning outs into outs. Donovan Solano has played one game at second base and several at first, and he appears substandard. Joey Gallo has adjusted very well to first base. Miranda has been okay, but nothing special at third base. The outfield has played well defensively, with a few exceptions.
Positive surprises for the month of April center on the pitching. Lopez, Ryan and Gray have been outstanding on the front end of the rotation--they were projected to be good and they have been better than that. The back end of the bullpen has been as good as advertised, including Jorge Lopez, who seems to have regained the form he had with the Orioles. The Twins have gotten good productivity and good defense from the catchers. Polanco and Buxton are hitting and figure to become the dynamic center of the lineup for a good team. For the position players, health seems to be returning, with Kyle Farmer on the mend and Alex Kirilloff ending his injury rehab. 
There are concerns that need to be addressed. The front end of the bullpen is unreliable at present and this is one area where the Twins lack depth. Someone needs to step up. Further, if the Twins continue to lean heavily on Jax, Thielbar, JLopez and Duran, they will risk burning out the effective back end guys. Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon and (marginally) Jose Miranda have not been effective hitters. Patience is probably needed for the hitters, with Nick Gordon probably on the bubble for demotion or DFA. The Twins are last in MLB in stolen bases, mostly due to lack of team speed, which also probably is reflected in a lack of range at several positions.
In summary, the first month has gone very well. The Twins are now favorites to win the Central division according to betting lines and Fangraphs, but there are still five months of baseball left to secure a place in the playoffs. There are flaws on this team, particularly in bullpen depth. It should be exciting going forward and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.  
 

After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
Losers
1. Kenta Maeda
Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
2. Trevor Megill
Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
3. Gilberto Celestino
2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
Winners
1. Edouard Julien
Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
2. Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
3. The Twins Front Office
There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
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Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.