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Gabriel Gonzalez full breakdown: plus thoughts on Bowen, Disclafani, and Topa


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Dereck Falvey and the Twins finally woke up from a two-month offseason slumber and made the first significant move of the offseason, trading long time Twin Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for 4 players. I have a lot of emotional thoughts on what Polanco meant not just as a player, but how he represents the organization so well in the 15+ years he's been with the Twins. Here's some quick hitters on three of the guys in the deal. 

Justin Topa

Topa was one of the more consistent relievers in what was an honestly insane Mariners bullpen. Topa pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 69 innings(nice) with a 3.15 FIP, a team high 155 ERA+ and an 8.0 K/9. Before last season, Topa had only pitched in 17 total games across 3 MLB seasons with Milwaukee. Topa's K rate is a bit low(21%), but he also doesn't walk many batters(6%). His Stuff+ is insane.

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From @pitchprofiler on Twitter

Topa fills a need in the Twins bullpen hierarchy already with Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar and Funderburk among others. Basically fills the Pagan role. 

 

Anthony DeSclafani

DeSclafani was already moved earlier this offseason from the Giants to the Mariners in the Robbie Ray/Mitch Haniger deal. DeSclafani was one of many breakouts on an insane 2021 Giants team, but he's battled injuries the last few seasons. He's going to provide at least some starting pitching depth, but I don't think the Twins are done adding to their rotation. DeSclafani has generally been a pretty solid back end of the rotation guy, with a career 4.20 ERA in 169 GS. He's on the last year of a 3 yr/36 million deal, but the Twins just owe him around 4 million. It gives the Twins some cap flexibility and probably gives them a shot at more starting pitching options in FA. 

Darren Bowen 

Bowen seems like just a throw in prospect to the deal, but he's got some intriguing tools. A 2022 13th round pick out of UNC-Pembroke, Bowen wasn't on the most recent top 30 Mariners prospects according to MLB Pipeline, but now slots in at number 27 in the Twins system. Only 22 years old, he had a 3.88 ERA in 19 games and 55 IP. His fastball sits around 92 MPH, and he throws a pretty nasty slider and changeup as well, though he still needs work on command with that pitch. 

Bowen's addition only intrigues the potential rotation we might get at Cedar Rapids this year, with the likes of Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, Andrew Morris, and C.J Culpepper. 

 

Gabriel Gonzalez

This is what really got me excited about the deal. As much as it would if the Twins got one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo back. Gonzalez was a top five prospect in a really underrated Mariners system, and he'll slot in as a top 5 prospect in the Twins system as well. Gonzalez is ranked inside the top 100 according to MLB pipeline at 79, giving the Twins 4 top 100 prospects. Gonzalez slashed .348/.403/.530 with a .933 OPS at single A, but only slashed .215/.290/.387 with a .677 OPS at high A. But Gonzalez is my personal favorite kind of outfield prospect. A corner outfielder with good enough defense but shows a ton of good power with potential for contact to be better as well. 

According to @SamDykstraMiLB on Twitter, Gonzalez was one of 61 teenagers to get 300+ PA at single A. He had the highest average amongst the group, and his K rate was at 13.7%, the third lowest amongst these players. The defensive profile is also promising for a 20-year-old corner outfielder. In my eyes, I think Gabriel will only continue to get better and the thoughts of a Jenkins-Gonzalez-Rodriguez MLB outfield in 4-5 years is cool to think about. 

 

@TFTwins did a great job in short time with this shorter video breaking down Gonzalez and Bowen. 

Overall, I think it's a very solid trade for the Twins and Mariners. I'd give both teams a B+ with a chance for both teams grades to be better, especially if Gonzalez and Bowen work out for the Twins. 

What do you all think of the trade? This is the longest blog I've written, so thank you for reading all the way through! Be sure to follow me on my twitter @JuhnTroy. 

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Hawkeye Bean Counter

Posted

Excellent job,  wish more people have seen this.  I would like to know more about Desclafani's health.  Still stating they expect him to be healthy,  but that it sounds like he has not been cleared to pitch yet.  Curious of what the expected time frame is and whether he will have enough time to ramp up to starter level innings.  

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