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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I don't disagree and if the Twins were willing to change the reading of the contract from starts to just appearances I am guessing all would be well on that front from a money standpoint. As things stand you can see the Twins have done everything they can to give him starts and so far have barely pushed him over the 9 outs threshold. They are holding up their end of the bargain in good faith so far. I assume they will continue to and hope Archer can start getting to 5 innings or more from here on out. I think given the walks and inability to go five innings he looks much better as a pen arm but he leaves a lot of money on the table if he gives up now. He is playing for a contract next year as well so I don't think a reliever role will go over well with him. I think he is a starter unless he does get a season ending injury. It also looks like with the 9 outs per appearance language they thought about piggy backing him so while that doesn't completely solve the problem it does provide for some flexibility in how they use him.
  2. Dman
    Yeah I don't know if Archer would be inclined to move to the pen given the incentives in the contract unless the Twins were willing to amend it. According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the team reached an agreement with right-hander Chris Archer on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. The deal can reach as high as $9.5 million with performance bonuses "based on games started or outings with nine or more outs." The way I read that is If in the bullpen he won't be starting games and if they don't let him go three innings from the pen it is going to be hard for him to get 9 or more outs per outing. The Twins need to and will operate in good faith to allow him to reach those incentives that is why I think Archer to the pen is a long shot.
  3. Dman
    Yeah I am probably over exaggerating the few more memorable failures or success's as you said but still it is the way I feel. It probably isn't rational but this darn game defies all logic a good portion of the time anyway so yeah you are probably right more than likely just random luck. I know in some of the games we lost to lessor pitching we hit balls hard they just didn't fall in or or go out. Sometimes things just don't work out. At any rate I know not to take a good team like the Brewers for granted. I hope the bats are hot and the pitching great but who knows what will happen until they play the game.
  4. Dman
    I love that you write about the draft so I am not complaining at all. We all want him to fall to us but being at 8 is a tough spot this year IMO.
  5. Dman
    I have a bit of bad feeling going into this series. What Tom forgets is that this years Twins team has been great against good pitchers and struggled against lessor pitchers far too often. These teams have been pretty evenly matched in recent years and with the Twins pen being so vulnerable makes this series far from a slam dunk even though the Brewers are not throwing their best pitchers out there. It all looks good on paper but will have to wait and see how the Twins perform. Winning both games would really help with the White Sox coming to town. With Cleveland and Chicago beating up on each other right now winning these games could be huge.
  6. Dman
    I just don't see Parada making it to the Twins. Even if he slipped past Washington he would be a dream pick for the Marlins and probably the Cubs as well. A catcher who is likely a fast mover because the bat will be advanced would be hard to pass up. Seems like a pretty safe pick as well with the good eye at the plate. We can dream but the odds are long that he makes it to the Twins.
  7. Dman
    Two amazing players that deserve to be there. I mean if the current leader in batting average can't make the team something is wrong. Buxton a bit more of a surprise for me but probably shouldn't be. His talent on offense and defense is elite and he is a great teammate. I love watching him play and he will be a lot of fun to watch in the All Star game. Both guys have worked really hard to get there but have to love that they included the entire team, coaches and players in their success. The support from both obviously is a difference maker to them. Congrats to both men on being two of better players in baseball and making the All Star team.
  8. Dman
    That is a good question. I could see the Twins sending Celestino down as he has options and is a right handed bat and they can use Gordon in center to sub for Buxton at least short term. Still even if they find room on the 26 man who can he replace in the lineup? When the Twins face Lefties they can use Urshela at 3rd, Miranda and 1st and Garlic in the DH spot as he mashes lefties. When the pitcher is a righty they have Arraez or Kirilloff at 1st and DH with Gordon or Kirilloff in left. I guess they could maybe use Sano in the DH spot more but there might be better hitters for that spot and it would mean Buxton and Correa wouldn't DH anymore so his bat better be productive. He needs to come up hot and stay hot to stay in the lineup and the Twins will lose some flexibility just putting him on the 26 man but they can do it.
  9. Dman
    The things I like about Povich are his K rate and that he is a solid lefty pitcher. While he has held his own at High A to this point there do seem to be signs of him falling off. His WHIP has been rising giving up more hits and walks means there is more to work on IMO. I like that the Twins pushed him to High A as I think he was up for the challenge. He is the best lefty I have seen in the Twins system probably ever and Hajjar is right there with him. Just hope he can keep refining his stuff to be even more unhittable.
  10. Dman
    Not that I have been watching the DSL that long but I have to agree there generally is not much home run action at that level. This kid must be something to watch. No way they move him to the FSL this year but I sure hope they do next year. If the BA and power are there, no reason not too. Also nice to see Mercedes performing as advertised. Taking three walks so good plate discipline, hitting well, stealing bases. Only thing he hasn't done is hit for power. He has a nice build and power is generally the last thing to come unless of course you are Jose Rodriguez. At any rate good to see some of those picks performing well right out of the gates.
  11. Dman
    Festa has far and away been the most consistent starting pitcher in the system this year. Would really like to see them move him to AA after the all star break to get acclimated to one of the toughest levels for a pitcher. That would put him in good shape to possibly be a difference maker next year. I like Povich and it has been a solid year but he does seem to go off the rails sometimes. Not sure why that is. Still I could see the Twins moving him up to AA as well keep him at high A. Again if they push it sets him up better to be a lefty option next year if needed\warranted.
  12. Dman
    Wow! his latest mock could be the shakeup you guys were talking about. Marlins could legit use a fast moving College bat as they are starved for offense. Berry could/should be a fast mover and is an offensive dream player. If they get a discount to boot that would make a lot of sense for them. Not so sure what the Cubs might do but if that is the way the things shake out Parada is an excellent offensive catcher with power and would be a good get at 7. He should be a fast mover as well. Still they could just as easily take Collier there. Hard to say but maybe the Twins get what they need at 8 yet. Even if the Cubs took Collier instead of Parada having an offensive catcher drop to the Twins would be just as good and maybe even a better scenario. The Twins can afford to wait for Collier to develop as they have a lot of offense at the top levels as it is. It would be a really good fit if that is what happens.
  13. Dman
    Most of the guys on that list did pretty well at the MLB so they have that going for them. They both have great season's and deserve the honor. Congrats to both players.
  14. Dman
    If he was there this would be a no brainer for me. I would rank him top 5 with the other high school players ahead of him due to greater position flexibility. He and Johnson would be essentially tied IMO. The odds of him making it to 8 are astronomically low. Someone that young doing what he is doing as far as hitting, plate discipline and to some degree power make him as close to a sure thing as you are going to get. Guys that perform that well, that young have a lot of all star upside as well. If he fell to 8 they better grab him.
  15. Dman
    Let me second that. I too like Sands in the pen and it seems hard to believe he could be much worse than Duffy or Pagan. At any rate I just don't see him holding up as a starter. He gets some rest gets back in the lineup does well then wears down again rinse, wash, repeat. I still think he has the pitches to get outs, but I think the pen is the best spot for him.
  16. Dman
    Count me in as conflicted on Neto vs Williams as well. Williams runs better but Neto has the better arm they both have good contact skills. I see Neto as the faster mover and more likely to stick at short but the extra speed Jett brings is nice to have in the back pocket as well. Even with an average arm Center could work for Williams. Revere had a below average arm and made it work. Not ideal but it can work. Hard to say who will end up better with the bat and OnBase skills but it would be hard to beat Neto's numbers. still Williams is three years younger so he has time to catch up. I think if you want the better option to stick at short it is Neto but if you want that speed and possibly elite bat maybe it is Williams. Tough call but that is what the Twins get paid the big bucks for.
  17. Dman
    Totally agree Doc. I am getting seriously worried about Detroit and their pretty much lock down pen. They get their young starting pitchers back next year and I think they are going to be tough next year. I love Ryan but was disappointed that he got ahead with 2 strikes only to give in with a walk or hit too often. Just the emotional me coming out. Yeah not overly serious on asking Jeffers to strike out but like many other just felt like he would hit into the double play and of course he did never giving our best hitter a chance. I mean if he hits a home run there I am like Jeffers is the greatest. He just hasn't been that great at the plate and like many others I felt a pinch hitter there in the 10th made sense. Sometimes things go your way sometimes they don't. You can just see that if this pen was better this team could look really good.
  18. Dman
    First let me say Thank You to Detroit who swept Cleveland in a four game series. At least we are not the only ones in the division that have trouble with the Tigers. Ryan needs to find that put away pitch or he is destined for more games like this. Pagan will not survive the season, he has negative value at this point. Megill has to be more careful with 2 strikes. He gets out of that inning without giving up runs and that game is ours. Jeffers don't try to be a hero at least have the decency to strike out so that Arraez gets one last chance to drive in the runs. Why they didn't pitch hit for the black hole bat in the 10th inning only the spreadsheet knows. Another winnable game lost by the pen who gave up 6 runs, 6. They gave up more runs than the starter. Just have to wait this out until the deadline I guess but we could be up 10 games in the division if the pen could hold leads.
  19. Dman
    Yeah power is tough to project but Corbin Carroll was supposed to be a slap hitter and now hits for power. Same could be said of Spencer Steer. Not saying just anyone can do it but power would be the tool I would be least worried about as it seems to come around in time. I think Williams will have power but most likely not high end power like Buxton. I think contact hitters are as important as power hitters. The ability to get on base and work the pitcher has its merits. Just look at what Arraez has done and you can see how important it can be. Not saying Williams could ever be "that" good but getting on base and not making outs puts pressure on the other team. The Twins have plenty of power hitters so focusing on a speedy contact hitter could help balance the system a little. To your point speed for stolen bases might be over rated but it still helps with defense and turning long singles into doubles. It is a trait the Twins could use more of. Speed is what makes Buxton elite in center. It can help when you are late in the game and really need that stolen base. Speed helps most though when it comes to defense and getting to balls someone slower can't. I'm not saying Williams is a perfect pick but I do think the skills he has could translate into an elite player and I think that is what you are looking for at number 8.
  20. Dman
    I am keeping my eyes on Sisk and Wood and maybe Schulfer as possible adds for the the Twins pen. Sisk could be another decent lefty reliever and we don't have many of those. Personally I would have had Sisk as number one your list as I like his much better balanced WHIP and ERA. His K rate isn't bad either just not as high as Bently's. Milaki would even be a better number 1 as well IMO but I would go with the guy at AAA first. To me the thing that separate's the relief arms that make it and those that don't is generally WHIP. If you can't keep it close to 1.00 then they aren't ready. Need K's too but that is what generally helps keep the WHIP down. Some good performances and hopefully they work their way up to the MLB level.
  21. Dman
    He is someone I have read quite a bit about. I mean some evaluators think he isn't all that far off from Johnson who is in the top seven. If the Twins could get a below slot deal with this guy I would do it. The only real issue holding him back is the arm. If you wanted him at short or center there do seem to be lot's of questions about the arm. If you see him at second the arm isn't an issue. I think you have to assume the arm will be average at best. To me he looks like he could be Altuve lite. I really, really like the skillset and he fits better with the Twins next wave of Urbina, Miller, Rodriguez, Rosario etc. I would have no problem if the Twins took him at 8 and saved money for the later rounds. I definitely like it more than the Cross pick.
  22. Dman
    The thing that bugs me most is he just can't execute when he needs to. He can't seem to throw a strike in a 3-2 count he just buries it in the dirt almost every time. He can't seem to control his stuff. He also doesn't pitch well to the edges and likes to hug the middle of the plate. When his stuff is in the zone it gets hit hard. He gives up too many home runs. He is allergic to first pitch strikes. There is only one player I prefer to not see come out of the pen more than Pagan and that is Duffy. That being said I hope Nick is right. Colome did do better after the season was already lost for the Twins and he is having a very good year again this year. Pagan started out this year fine although with lot's runners on base and hopefully he finds his mojo and gets things going again. It is just that watching him pitch is one of the more frustrating experiences you can have. He generally makes his relief inning look very. very hard instead of easy peasy. We definitely need him to turn things around after watching him this long though I have my doubts.
  23. Dman
    I was wondering if there was something wrong with Kopek. Maybe I remember wrong but I thought his fastball was usually 96-97 and last night it seemed to be more 93-94. Also on the Kepler and Polanco Home Runs the placement of those pitches and the pitches themselves were poor. Maybe others are right that the first inning just took too great a toll and his stuff just wasn't as good as normal. At any rate I had the game penciled in as a loss but should have known the better the pitcher the better the Twins offense. Kind of crazy but they have done well against some really good pitchers this year. The ABC top of the order went 1 for 13 with 2 walks so thankfully the other six accounted for another 11 hits 4 of which were home runs. The two young hitters Miranda and Kirilloff were really impressive. They are making this lineup very deep with dangerous bats. Really nice to see that home run power return for Kirilloff especially opposite field. If he heats up like he did in minor league ball he could be an all-star caliber player at the MLB level. Winder was rock solid again. The starting pitching has been there this year. If the pen can hold on or improve this team could be dangerous.
  24. Dman
    My bigger question is if the Twins could save 1.5 Million off of the 5.4 Million they get at pick 8 (for Neto, Gilbert some other comparable player) then couldn't they make a deal with one of the pitchers expected to go say in the low 20's and pick them at 48 as that pick is worth 1.6 million and if you add the 1.5 million saved that puts them in range of the money that player would receive at say pick 21 and below. Then they would essentially be getting two lower first round talents for the price of one higher pick. It just seems that if they don't get one of the top 7 the rest of the other players 8-30 seem fairly close to clumped together in rating. Why not increase your odds and try and get two of those top 25 to 30 players instead of waiting for pick 48. Still if one of the top 7 fall it would be hard to pass on a player that could have All Star potential or be a special player. It just seems like the Twins are one pick too short to get one of those unless of course other teams try to spread their money around as well.
  25. Dman
    Turner was faster a big time bag stealer who could hit. I think the big knock on him was his slighter frame which Neto has and his risk for injury. I think a lot teams felt he wouldn't make it through full seasons without getting injured so he dropped some. I think Neto likely has better bat to ball skills and probably a better arm but Turner would beat him everywhere else. They are two pretty different prospect except for maybe the thin build.
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