Dman

If the Twins were keeping Kepler I can't see myself defending them grabbing Gallo. Most of the baseball world didn't understand that move without the Twins moving a left handed outfield bat. I guess I don't completely understand comparing Gallo to Urshela though. It should be a Gallo, Kepler comparison straight up if you ask me. I thought Urshela's replacement was Farmer who could actually play shortstop as well as other positions. he was a right handed bat just like Urshela with more positional flexibility at a cheaper cost. Gallo had nothing to do with that move IMO. While it might be nice to have Gio's right handed bat the cost seems high for a likely 1st base DH type player with Farmer likely getting first dibs in the field. I didn't care for the return the Twins got but I thought it was a solid decision to move on from Urshela if they used the extra money wisely. I don't know if signing Gallo would be considered using it wisely but obviously the FO thinks so.

I am already sold on Miller's defense so he has a utility role pretty much wrapped up with just slight improvement with the bat. Still he graded out with plus contact skills at the plate in the draft and while a 23% K rate isn't bad you would think a guy with plus bat to ball skills would be in the mid teens for K rate. He was only 19 and put on a show the first month with an .800 OPS so he can do it. I kind of wonder if they had him working on increasing his bat speed or something to gain more power and if that affected him or maybe he just got worn down. Hard to say but he will still only be 20 next year and I am bullish on his bat coming around. I got to see Festa late in the season at Beloit and he didn't look particularly dominant that night and yet when you look at the box score he did pretty well. I am not sold that thin body can hold up to rotation work but will have to wait and see. He is going to need more polish to make it up the levels IMO. Still you can't argue with the fastball speed and solid slider or his results from last year.. Another year should tell us whether pen or rotation I would think. I hate to get too worked up over DSL numbers as when most of those guys get to the FCL they really struggle. Still Mercedes offers a possible plus hit tool, plus power and plus run skills. If the arm improves maybe a plus arm so a borderline 5 tool player. That would be a nice get if he turns out. If he keeps somewhat similar numbers at the FCL then the Twins did well to find him as he will be a fast mover. Have to wait and see it could take a year or two to adjust to the better pitching he will face. I have been low man on Wallner for a long time. The K rate was too much for me to take. He is finally starting to make a believer out of me. He has been taking his walks and it seems that has helped him tremendously. He has brought his K rate down to 30% still not ideal but better than it has been and OPS up. He was an absolute monster at AA even after a horrid start. AAA showed there is still more work to be done. While his .840 OPS there was very good if he wants to make the jump to MLB it will need to better. Main thing to me is that he is improving and can be a viable MLB player whereas before I was getting concerned he might be a bust. Out of this list I like the two guys the farthest away. I think that if those bat to ball skills return Miller could be a standout player. I am hoping he come out hot and keeps it going this coming season. If Mercedes hangs around those DSL numbers he probably is going to be a star player. Even if he fails some at the FCL he is young for the level and wouldn't be a bust just maybe not quite ready yet. This is a good solid list but all these players have something to prove next year.

He was an amazing scout IMO. A big part of Twins history. He will be missed. R.I.P. Mike.

I still remember the article they put out on Buxton when he was the minors. Man that one had me in stiches and even though satire it seemed real enough and the comments were wild on that one. I can't remember what it said but something about coaches wanting Buxton to stop at second instead of taking third on doubles because it wasn't fair to the other team or some such thing. That had to be one of his best all time.

I would also add that I would like to see what he can do as a starter coming back. In 2020 wasn't he essentially in the conversation for the Cy Young award? That was a short year and I get we all are worried about his arm holding up but it seems prudent to see if he is the same or close to same starting pitcher as 2020 which would be better than Ober IMO. They both have questions about how many innings they can throw but I would give Maeda the chance first if it were me.

Our best two potential home grown starters Ober and Winder both seem like they might not be able to hold up to a starters load which is disappointing. On the other hand moving them could really strengthen the pen. Still not sure where our starters are going to come from then. Varland seems viable maybe SWR but he has been another arm that seems to wear down as the season goes on. From there you are hoping Balazovich and or Enlow can bounce back otherwise you are waiting on Festa and Raya with Prielipp a bit further behind yet. Hopefully things break the Twins way for starters at some point. They should start with 2023 draft by drafting more pitchers than position players. Looks like we have some pretty cool options for the pen if they can perform there.

I am not as sold on Urbina especially since there is talk that might need to move out of centerfield. The bat has been ok but no real breakout. Any chance you can fill me in on what you see to rank him at 15?

Some of the guys in the top 10 would have gotten knocked down here if we still had Petty, Povich, Hajjar, Steer and CES. The Twins needed\wanted MLB players so there went part of the farm. Seems like the system is still ranked around the middle of the pack so not too bad. We are going to need to have players step up out of no where to get back into the top 10 though. Hopefully this 2023 draft ends up a good one.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think Mike is right. Since no other team wanted to make it worth their while the Twins need to make sure Kirilloff is truly healthy. That Larnach is the same Larnach after coming back from injury. If Gallo doesn't rebound they have another player to use in right. Still lot's of things can happen between now and the start of the season. Guys go down in Spring training all the time. Kepler might look really good this spring and some other team might feel they really, really need a player like that. The Twins traded Rogers just before the season the same could happen with Kepler if the Twins decide Kirilloff, and Larnach look ready to go. In your worst case scenario if Kepler doesn't turn things around, then around June, Larnach or someone else will replace him anyway. At that point once his projection is a known quantity they can try and trade him for a bucket of balls or bench him. I think there is still time for the Twins to get a deal done before the season starts but a team would need to be willing to pay the price the Twins feel he should be valued at. If not I think they are doing the prudent thing especially given what happened last year. Roll with the extra depth and see how things shake out. It is likely 3 months of development time lost max.

I remember looking at the DSL box scores last year and thinking I don't remember guys hitting this many home runs there. I believe others echoed the same thing. I can't remember a guy with that kind of power right out of the gates in the DSL. Even Sano didn't start hitting them that often until he got to Elizabethton. I don't know how much projection is left but that is already really good power. While he had good plate discipline in the DSL I still think the FCL will set him back as the pitching is much better there. If he masters the zone though this kid could be a super star. Probably right there with Emmanial Rodriguez except from the other side of the plate. If those guys turn out having righty, lefty mashers would be really fun to watch. I think Nick is right when the Twins looked at Schobel they saw Brian Dozier. Likely a plus defensive second baseman with enough pull side power to make him dangerous. We will see if he can pull it off. Not horrible numbers for his first time out but I am hoping for bigger things next year. The guy I am rooting for the most in this list is Henriquez. If he can keep that fastball around 98 coming out of the pen with his two slightly plus secondary's he could be an 8th inning, 9th inning stopper reliever. He could really solidify the pen if he can stop giving up the HR balls. The Twins are finally getting some high octane bullpen arms and I think that could really help them become a shut down pen. Hopefully Henriquez finds a Santana like debut this year. Have to believe Jordon can come back and be better. Have no idea what happened last year but it does happen. Hopefully he takes the offseason to rework his mind and body to gain the control he needs to be successful. Canterino could be another big arm in this pen once he gets going again. Control will be key for him as well but really not much to say until next year.

Twins have room to keep him so not a huge deal other than the money at this point. I agree with others that there is no reason to trade him for a Michael Taylor return if that is all that is out there. He has more value than than that to his current team. If his offense returns that value could increase dramatically as well. Also agree that if he performs at an average level he should bring more back at the deadline than right now. If there is room why not just wait unless blown away by an offer?

Loved Smeltzer and he was perfect in a pinch but he isn't ever going to be dominant. He is an excellent get to stash at AAA but going to the Marlins seems a bit cruel as they are so deep in pitching it is hard to see him getting MLB chances there. Maybe they move him to the pen and hope he can be Thielbar like. Wishing him the best.

You look at it and they have Lopez, Duran and Jax as solid top end pen arms. Thielbar might be close to that group as well. Question marks with Alcala, Pagan and Megill. They could be good, bad or somewhere in between. That leaves them with Henriquez, Sands, and Moran which should be solid lower end options for 6th, 7th inning. If needed they can also use Winder in the pen. Off the 40 man they have Coulombe and Dobnak as possible pen arms and Schulfer or Laweryson might also be options if they start out well in AAA. So they have a fair bit of depth for the pen right now. If disaster struck they could use Varland and SWR in that role for a while as well. So I guess I can see Falvey's point. Unless they are going to add a top end arm which they don't like to pay for then they probably don't need to add unless a deal they really like comes along. They will use at least 2 if not all 3 of the roster spots that come available. Hopefully one for another right handed bat and the other two for waiver claims on borderline 40 man pitchers that get waived as teams pick up more players as spring training nears. Or maybe, just maybe they find a guy they like for the right price and they sign him.

Nice write up Doc!

I wasn't particularly happy with the Noah Miller pick myself but it is a bit early to label him as just a utility infielder or a bust. Right now if you go to MLB.Com you will see he is rated 17th and I don't think they are too embarrassed about it. Fangraphs has him ranked 4th in 2022 they don't have 2023 out yet so they have to be crazy embarrassed about what grade they gave Miller. I don't know if you got to see Miller in Spring training last year but his defense looked essentially MLB ready to me. He looked poised for 19 years old, gobbled up grounders and set his feet well for good solid throws. I don't think defense will be an issue for him. His bat was problematic in A ball last year with a .211 average quality contact was lacking. Slugging of .279 anemic. The .627 OPS far from ideal. Positives on Offense were his walk rate was excellent and having a good eye at the plate usually leads to better pitches to hit. His K rate at 23% was not a huge issue either so he can make contact unfortunately it was weak contact. His .348 OBP is really good for the league but with little to no power and lots of easy outs he didn't have a quality year on offense last year. Here's the rub though. A ball is generally where all the recently drafted college kids start out and they have had two years of college ball to help them adjust to that level. They are bigger and stronger and have more experience at higher levels of competition than Miller played against especially in a cold weather state. The odds of him hanging with those players was slim to begin with. He will only be 20 next year with a full year of pro ball behind him. I think we can expect better things from him next year. He should be stronger and there should be fewer surprises for him next year. He doesn't have contact issues and has a good eye at the plate. There is still reason to be bullish on his future. Yep I know Rodriguez killed that league at 19 last year and he has a bright future but that doesn't mean Miller can't come around and figure things out yet. It was his first year of pro ball and he was up against more experienced competition. Let's give him another year or two and see how much his offense improves before worrying about ranking him too high or too low. FWIW he has dropped in the rankings from around top 10 to lower teens so there is some concern among evaluators.

I am in the give Joey Gallo a chance bucket and am hoping he does well enough to turn down a QO at the end of the season giving the Twins an extra draft choice. Still I understand where several posters are coming from. Seeing the bases loaded and Gallo up next and he strikes out is tough to watch. When players don't even put the ball in play there is no chance to score runs. It is probably the ultimate downer to not even give your team a chance in that situation. But yes I am with you on your premise. If Arraez gets on with a single and no other player gets a hit or moves him over nothing happens. If Joey Gallo gets a hit and it is a HR his singular hit impacted the game significantly more thus OPS tells a more complete story. Still clutch hits are sooo important and so needed on this team that likes to find ways not to score with the bases loaded and no outs. There is something to be said for both the Contact and power approach. More teams seem to be building around contact. The Guardians would be the main team and it is why Miami wanted Arraez. Teams will need to blend approaches to be successful IMO.

A little surprised Chourio made the cut at 30. DSL numbers are hard to quantify as the competition is variable there. Still from what I have read at Fangraphs and a few other areas he could be a five tool player as he has the size\build to hit for power. Would be nice if he ends up the real deal. Given the low league OPS at the FSL Rosario didn't do too bad there. I agree that he should repeat the level. I am still excited by the power profile and hopefully those contact skills improve as we need more right handed power bats in the system. I don't know why but I have always been a big believer in Severino's Switch hitting bat. He has been a very up and down player and injured a fair but I think this is the year he makes that leap to consistency. Not sure what position he holds down but I still think the bat could be special. His best role might DH if can control the strike outs. I didn't think Acuna would make the top 30. For his age and noted his start to the season he had a solid debut but being one of the younger players at the DSL level I thought the Twins might have him repeat the level. The FCL has humbled many DSL players their first year and some never even make it to A ball from there. He has the pedigree and as noted was hot after the initial cold streak so he might be better than the overall numbers indicated. Would love to see him in the FCL and they might as well challenge him early. Was very impressed with what Headrick did last year. I still don't know if he is starter material but if he keeps that WHIP and ERA down at AA and AAA it sure would be nice to have a viable Left handed Starter at the MLB level. Here's hoping he moves up this list into the top ten after this years performance. De Andrade's bat hasn't impressed me but with only 13.5 K rate he is making contact. Hopefully he figures out how to square up more balls or be more patient waiting for quality strikes. I am not as bullish on De Andrade at this time. A mini breakout would change that for me but I think he should repeat the FCL as suggested in the article. A ball seems to be a really tough challenge he doesn't look ready to me. Sands and Enlow are enigma's. They have proven they have the stuff but they both fallen off in the results department. Just gonna have to wait and see what 2023 brings to figure out what they are for real. Same goes for Balazovich. Pretty hyped on Nowlin but then I always do go a little gaga over K rate. I had him pegged as a reliever but if he can be a starter that would be quite the find in round 19. Needs to find more control but he has the stuff to get guys out. A nice list of far away guys and guys ready to bust the door down. Here's hoping they all make it.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/2023/order

If the Twins had more of a mid 1st round pick I could see them possibly adding number 32 on mlb.com Cole Carrigg. He shows as a catcher, outfield and shortstop. He also is a switch hitter. If the bat is for real and a team thinks he could stick behind the plate he could be a fast riser. Will have to wait and see how much helium is there around draft time.

It is early but right now there seems to be 4 players that could all go number one draft day and would be great fits for the Twins. Of course we pick at number 5 this year. Dylan Crews appears to be the consensus number 1 for the moment as he is a right handed 5 tool player that might stick in center but would be a plus defender in right and did I mention he was right handed and could be a fast mover due his bat contact skills. He would be a great fit for the Twins if he could fall to pick number 5. Next I have Langford he too could be a 5 tool player with power his calling card. He too is a right handed batter who could play right field but his arm might only be average so likely best in left field although he is going to be playing in center this year. He looks built like Aaron Judge except no one is as big as Judge but he could be a mini Judge and carries a powerful bat with a good hit tool. He would be a nice addition for the Twins as well. I have Dollander next who most project being taken 2nd because 11 of the Nats top 25 players in their system are already outfielders. They are swimming in quality outfielders and Dollander is a top of the rotation arm maybe not seen since they picked Strassburg. Dollander has it all and certainly could be the number 1 pick when it is all said and done if he has a dominant year and his arm holds up. I have him at 3 simply because pitchers can be risky bets if he fell to number 5 again if I were the Twins I would take him. At 4 I have the tooled up high school center fielder Max Clark. He has 70 grade speed and a plus to plus plus hit tool only lacking power to be a five tool player and since he is only in high school has time to develop at least average power. He would be the Twins center fielder of the future. It is hard to find 5 tools players and he looks like he could be a good one in time. At number 5 as Jeremy states certainly the next best bat would be Jacob Wilson. Guy only K'd 7 times in 275 plate appearances has solid tools across the board and could stick at short and did I mention he is right handed? He would be a good get at number 5 as well it is just that we suddenly are loaded with middle infield guys. I guess I would really like to see the Twins try to grab a tooled up player at 5 and if Bradfield had a better arm or a bit more power I think that would be a good pick for the Twins at 5 as well. Currently he only has three plus or plus plus tools Hitting is plus and run and fielding are plus, plus. Now hear me out while he doesn't have great power if he can get on base at a good clip those walks and singles could still land him on 2nd making him a secondary doubles machine. If the defense makes a mistake he ends up on third. Gonna be real hard to throw out an 80 runner. The arm if truly rated 40 is likely a problem though. Anything hit deep is going to require the cutoff man to go deep to retrieve the ball so it is possible guys could tag up at 2nd and make it all the way home depending on where it is hit. Still I think the Twins could use help in center with Buck hurt every year and Bradfield could be a fast mover and he maintains Bucks elite ability to get to balls in play. Personally I think there is a case for Bradfield at 5. For me I would love it if Clark was there at 5. The Twins skipped on Carroll who wasn't supposed to hit for power either and I think Clark will be the same. 70 grade speed makes him an excellent defender with a plus bat odds are he ends up a 5 tool guy and that would maximize the value of the number 5 spot IMO. Wilson isn't gonna be a 5 tool guy. He has an elite hit tool and eye which is very good compensation but we have some solid up the middle hitters and the system is very short on centerfield prospects at least ones with elite run tools. If he is there he should be the pick even though it might take him another year or two to get to the big leagues. If Crews or Langford fall they are right handed outfield power bats that this team could desperately use as well. Both should be fast movers and are solid 4 tool if not 5 tools players as well. Odds are low they make it to 5 but I said the same thing about Lee last year. Pitchers are the wild card as they could pop up into the top 5 Skenes has helium on MLB.com as does Waldrup. If they perform well they would be in the top 5 mix as well. Leaving them out for now as so many things seem to happen to top end pitchers during the year.

I have to say I was surprised at just how well Lawyerson did at AA. That is the Texas league a hitters league and he manages a 1.06 ERA and sub 1 WHIP. Wow! That is domination. He never had an elite fastball so I assume he has plus secondary's? I had thought a team might take a chance on him in Rule V but the rest of the league doesn't see him as worthy of roster spot just yet. Gonna be an interesting year for Cody to be sure. I really like what Cardenas did in A ball. He was one of the best all around players in that league IMO. Good bat, Good Defense. Good eye at the plate. I think he has a chance to be a really good catcher but there is a looong way to go. I like Mooney and the K's he produces but that WHIP was short of dominant to me. We will see if he passes the AA test and if he does then he looks like a viable reliver to me. After the 2019 Season I was ready to say goodbye to Michael Helman. He looked massively overmatched at the plate to me. Seth who never gives up on any prospect still felt he could make it. I guess Seth and that eternal optimism worked out this time around. Helman looks like a MLB utility player to me. If he keeps that slugging up he will get a chance somewhere. Maybe not the Twins but some team will want him. It is a nice list and I am excited to see the how the 2022 class does in a full season. Hopefully some of those guys makes some noise and bring the farm system up in the rankings. The international class has a lot of players that could already make their way to the FCL in Mercedes, Rodriguez, Nova, DeAndrade, Cruz, and Pena. With Pena and Olivar likely to start in A ball. So lot's of promising young guys to watch at the lower levels this year. As Always thanks Seth for the writeup on the prospects who give us hope for the stars to come.

Yeah there isn't much to base Lewis on but I plan to give Law a ton of crap once Lewis gets it going. All SSS but Lewis had a dominant AAA debut and at least solid MLB debut until injured. It sure looked like he cleaned up the things Law was concerned about with his bat and he felt fine dropping him but not lifting him back up? Kind of biased IMO. As long as he is man enough to say he was too chicken to give Royce props I guess that is OK by me but I think he makes himself look bad excluding him but that is just my biased opinion. Lot's of other evaluators took notice of Lewis and he seems the odd man out on this one. I think he did say he puts more emphasis on projection in his list so guys further away get larger bumps. Royce has little projection left and he almost looks like a top end super utility type at this point for the Twins so maybe he adjusts for that as well? Hard to say. I am struggling to help him find good reasons to not have him on the list and I like Law more than most.

I never looked into Fulmer all that hard so this article is a bit of a wake up call for me. Even last season I never thought he was a world beater and even with Detroit he had his flaws but he also was a veteran guy who seemed to get the job done. I still wouldn't mind if the Twins signed him as there isn't a ton of difference making arms out there as it is and the Twins don't pay top dollar for relief arms. I still think he would be a good depth signing but we will see if they go after him or not. The Twins have some interesting young arms they could use in the pen in Moran, Henriquez, and Sands and Winder unless they choose to keep him on the starter track. Still not a ton of depth IMO and there isn't much behind them unless they are converting starters to relievers. Pen arms have a tendency to get hurt early in the season so I think a good depth signing is warranted but we will see what the front office thinks once those roster spots open up.

Yeah I plan to hold Law to that projection. He never really liked Lewis especially at short so it is not too surprising. He did mention in his article that it is skewed toward younger players with lots of projection remaining. Lewis is at AAA and is who he is so not much projection left. He also has so little playing time it is hard to say just what he is at this point so I guess I can see the hesitancy based on that metric. Still it has to be hard to ignore Lewis's monster AAA debut and an equally impressive MLB debut. Granted both were SSS but I think Law has highly under estimated Lewis all along. I would love to throw this one back in his face but first I need Royce to make an All Star game. Top 100 lists are not the be all end all. They don't account for Luis Arraez types and lot's of other guys who didn't appear to have top end tools only to end up better than players projected to be better than they were. It is nice to have players in there and it is a fun read but that is about it for me.

I think as this article points out they really rounded out the roster. I still wouldn't mind them grabbing a righty first baseman\DH and it would have been nice to have lucked into a power right handed corner outfield bat. Still I really like what they did and hope that they find better consistency in the pen. starting pitching and hitting this year. I am excited to see how this all works out especially since the central was pretty quiet when it comes to acquisitions this year. This looks like a solid team on paper which should be in the hunt for the division if not wild card this year.