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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I just can't see Lewis willing to do a money saving deal for the Twins. He has the money from being a first round draft pick and is the type of person who believes in himself and his ability. He doesn't seem like a second guesser about his future health to me so why do a discount? That is issue number one for me. Issue number two is that he hasn't played that long and already has an injury history with two ACL surgeries. Call them freak or fluky or whatever but that creates more than normal risk for the team investing in the player long term. I don't see this FO taking on that kind of risk when they can easily wait at minumum one more year to see how he holds up for a full season. Also lot's of these deals get done just before the arb deals kick in so there is time to do this later when both sides have more info. It just seems to early for both sides to do this IMO
  2. Dman
    Yeah if he goes for that the Twins would have a tough time finding a better arm for less money. If that isn't enough I would go with a third year option of 15 to 20M with a 5M buyout. That way if they don't want him after the second year there is an easy out and it turns the 15M to 17.5 for those two years. This would all be contingent on his current numbers holding up to the end of the season as of right now his numbers say he is a top of the rotation pitcher. Anything under 20M for a top of the rotation arm is a bargain. Hard to say if he would go for that or not but it would be a place to start. Odds are unless he "really" likes the Twins he shops the FA market though.
  3. Dman
    With so little movement on this issue I think MLB wants the human umps to use discretion to keep teams in games by squeezing or not squeezing one side. Otherwise it makes no sense not to move to robo umps. I can't think of another single argument other than MLB wants the controversy of inconsistently called balls and strikes to impact games as it creates emotional chatter.
  4. Dman
    Yeah McCusker is interesting. He looks a bit like Winokur in that he is so tall. Watched his last at bat On MiLB.tv and was going to write that he didn't seem have a good eye at the plate and that might be why the K rate is so high and then down to his last strike he hit his second home run of the game. He has managed around a .900 OPS where ever he has been but the 35% or above K rate does lead one to believe he has trouble recognizing pitches. Fix that and he would be an awesome MLB player kind of Judge like but eye at the plate generally is not easy to fix.
  5. Dman
    First let me say I really admire Kenta and the fact he bet on himself with an incentive laden contract. He knew teams felt the arm was an issue and he was willing to share the risk if something went wrong. I like who he is as a teammate. He seems thoughtful and reserved and I admire those traits. I would like to see him remain a Twin. If he continues to pitch like he has been to end the year and or even slides just a little but doesn't tank I think with the numbers he has It would 15M to 20M per year to sign him. His 32%K rate with a 1.17 WHIP and as mentioned in the article sub 3.00 ERA since he wasn't quite built all the way back up puts him in pretty elite company. I get that he doesn't have great velocity and is old which comes with risk but given what teams have been willing to invest in pitchers like Rich Hill, Verlander, Sherzer etc. odds are he gets at least a two year deal and I wouldn't be surprised if he managed 2 years with a 3rd year option and fairly high buyout. Maybe he would go for a QO on a one year deal? Seems unlikely as this might be his last big pay day and he would want to maximize years and dollars. The question I have is does he like it in Minnesota? He seems like someone that might like the West Coast better. When he had his chance to choose it was LA. I don't know if he even wants to stay with Minnesota so that might play into it as well. If he continues to pitch well the Twins would be wise to bring him back but if they can't they should at least QO him. He might not bring back a sup first rounder but would bring back something if he left. If they can keep him they know who they are getting and that he fits in the club house. As stated in the article Gray is gone and Paddack is no sure thing. Ober and Ryan look OK if they can avoid injury. Varland has been up and down all year there isn't much behind Louie as Headrick hasn't been as good after the half way mark. If they can get Kenta to come back they should do it.
  6. Dman
    I think we will know more about how this all shakes out in two weeks. None of the three teams have shown any real consistency but with the Twins losing so many winnable games they have put themselves in a tough spot if either Detroit or Cleveland go on any kind of run they could pass the Twins. Was thinking of the irony if Detroit would catch the Twins at the end kind of like the Twins did to the Tigers when they were six or seven games back with a month to go. Karma could come back to hurt them if that happened.
  7. Dman
    For playoffs I don't disagree but I am starting to question if they will make it given how poorly the pen has been doing recently. They could get swept by Texas then they play Cleveland whose rotation is just as good and pen better than ours and we have a tough time with the Guardians in General and those are our next 12 games or so. If they don't find some wins there things are going to get tough right quick. Also I don't know if the Tigers are for real but if they keep plugging away they play the Yankee's who don't look that good right now a bunch and then they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way just like the Twins. If they reel us in things look tough again. If this team doesn't get its act together soon they won't make the playoffs.
  8. Dman
    My point is they all have been bad and just because you acquire someone doesn't mean they will be better just like last year. Yep always a chance things work out great or better than expected but when Duran and Jax who have just blown up games recently aren't getting it done what difference does it really make if you added one more arm that may help for one inning? it isn't going to move the needle unless most of the rest of the pen does the job and they haven't been.
  9. Dman
    You don't see many 5 hit nights ever so congrats to Garlick on a dialed in night. Stevenson continues to be a catalyst for that team and the Saint's bats are hard to hold down in general. Miller with a .789 OPS for August so far. He has never had an .800 OPS month I don't believe so that would be a huge accomplishment for a 20 year old at High A and a great way to finish off his year. I was surprised to see Festa pitch so well. He looked more like himself after they gave him some rest down the stretch. Would be nice to see him finish strong as he looks like the only arm other than Varland that might be able to help the Twins next year. Also nice to see De Andrade collect a few more hits. It looks like he will move up a level next year for sure given how well he has done at A ball this year. He and Olivar had been the best bats on that team most of the season until some recent draft reinforcement's. Personally I think Olivar could have moved up mid season but with the catcher backlog at High A there just wasn't room for him to catch there and that team is pretty loaded at every position right now.
  10. Dman
    The way the pen has been playing out I don't think another arm at the deadline was going to make a difference. Like all year one arm has a bad night almost every night and it dooms the team. It can be Jax, Pagan, Duran, Balazovich, etc. it doesn't seem to matter but someone has an off night and there goes the ball game. Given what I have seen so far they either need to figure out why the pen arms can't execute or find ways to better mix and match pitches to be less predicable. There are way too many "holes" in this pen for even one or two arms at the deadline to make a difference.
  11. Dman
    The Muscles could use more outfield help so moving Jenkins there should help the team out. Also nice to get him a little experience in A ball so he has leg up for next year. Martin is really playing well. Have to say I am surprised by the power he is showing so far this year. That bodes well for getting to MLB. Keaschall with a very good game and really upped hi OPS. Would be nice if he ends up a fast mover.
  12. Dman
    I don't understand how Wichita keeps winning. They only have three top 30 prospect's and the top 30 prospect's they have haven't been good ( Schobel, Raya, Festa). It is a Motley collection of over achiever's at this point and seems unlikely to last. And yet they are in first place in the second half. Still a month left of games in the second half so far from a guarantee they stay in first place, but to this point they have given themselves a chance. I'll be watching.
  13. Dman
    So many good things to choose from but I am going to focus on Miller and his chance to have an .800 OPS in the month of August. Just needs to keep getting a few extra base hits a week and keep that average and OBP up and he can do it. If starts doing it consistently he will be back in the top 10 of the top 30 list. Harry had a really tough start but A ball has been good to him. Going .500 for the week isn't easy to do. Another week like that and I bet they move him to High A for the playoffs. K rate has been brutal for a lot of my favorite hitters. Hopefully they can settle back in and take some walks. Ohl sure knows how to pitch. I am going to have to watch some of his games to see just how he does it since I don't think he has any plus pitches.
  14. Dman
    I was back on the Dobnak bandwagon as well. I really thought he was back on track. Needs to find another pitch or another something but for now another season of lost hope.
  15. Dman
    Kudos to Keuchel on a well pitched game. I never would have thought it possible to see him throw a perfect game through 6 innings given his pitch to contact repertoire. Class act for the fans to give him a standing ovation as he left. That had to feel good after getting killed his last time out. Have to say he is full of surprises. If he keep the team in games I hope they keep throwing him out there.
  16. Dman
    I like him more than most but as others have noted with not much power you really have to show you can hit and have a high OBP. Also as others have noted he is in a hitters league and still only OPSing .800. To make it at the MLB level he would need to be around that number and those marks usually drop 100 to 200 points when moved to the majors where every pitcher you face is good to elite. There are things to like about his profile. His K rate is low and walk rate almost double digits. He can steal bases and I believe is a good defender. He isn't young for the level and with the Twins already having their fair share of utility guys he needs to really stand out and he doesn't. I think he is very good player but until he can get into that .900 OPS range he kind of is just another guy.
  17. Dman
    They must not want to remove any of the young arms off the 40 man and with the trade deadline having passed they cannot trade anyone to make room. I assume it takes another long term injury for him to be added. He might be better than Moran and Sands and Winder but until he gets his chance we just won't know. Sands, Moran and Ortega all have good AAA numbers just like Kody so hard to know how well his stuff will translate but on the flip side he has been as good they have been and he is the only one who hasn't gotten a chance at the MLB level.
  18. Dman
    I do agree that those college bats are likely to move quickly to the majors as they both look like generational bats at this point. As you said Skenes can probably play in MLB right now but likely slow played to some degree to add innings and make sure he is ready for a starters load. Still, you also have to keep in mind that 2022 had a lot of high drafted high school players in Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Collier and Williams. Also Next year will have other players up for top 5. Not saying Jenkins can't be one of the best 5 just that it is really hard to do as those spots are given to elite talents so performance is key to get into and stay in the top 5. You never know when a relatively unknown international player is going to breakout and move up ala Chourio or Salas. It takes a lot to be top 5 but again I will agree unless super young, guys that are in those spots generally don't stay long as they are valuable assets at the MLB level as well.
  19. Dman
    Yeah I agree. I think it would take something big for the Twins to move Severino. He has been a .900 OPS hitter (if you only count high A in 2021) the last three years at three different levels. He has the hard hit rate the Twins love and to top it off he hits well from both sides of the plate. It is the power bat the Twins crave and his only wart but it is a fairly big one is his K rate has also been around 30% most of his career. It is a Wallner type profile except Severino does hit lefties well which is also something the Twins need. I agree he would be nice at 1st base but can also play 2nd and 3rd maybe not quite at an average level but he can play those positions. He also would be a good DH and bench bat to have when not starting. I think he ends up taking on Polanco's role with the team. as their skill sets match pretty well and Severino is younger and cheaper.
  20. Dman
    I don't know getting to top 5 on a top 100 list is really hard to do. I am not sure Lee would ever even make it there as the player has to be tooled up and considered special to make top 5. Even Jenkins who has the best chance to make sense at a top 5 candidate would have a hard time as 4 players from his own draft were selected ahead of him and they all are doing just as well or better than he is right now. I just don't see one let alone two guys making it to top 5 status. Maybe top 10 or 20 but top 5 is tough to crack IMO. That being said top 100 rankings are fun and a way to identify top players but not the be all end all for elite players. Arraez is a good example of that. Can't get too caught up in farm rankings as rating players is so subjective. It feels like the Twins have been good at getting the most out of lower drafted players but have had issues finding elite players that work out. It feels like the current farm is light on those types of players which is why the Twins are middle of the pack. Hopefully guys like Winokur or Soto or De Andrade or some of those International signings find a way to excel beyond expectation's and move up into those top 100 lists. I am not worried about top 5 just getting elite talent to the MLB club.
  21. Dman
    I agree. If they can get something back in trade they should move him. Nothing is guaranteed but Severino is essentially his replacement as he can play 2nd and third. He is a switch hitter just like Polanco and while he is power over hit he can hit pretty well. Even if you don't see Severino filling his spot then Lee certainly will it is just a matter of time there. I like your Prato suggestion as well. While he has cooled off in August his walk and K rate are still balanced so he has the eye at the plate to help his tools translate. If needed he could fill the Polanco role as well. Don't get me wrong I don't think Polanco's is "easily" replaced but if this team is going to start acting more like the Rays and Guardians they should be moving on from vets and investing in their younger guys. Using the Vet's to help bolster the farm with prospects. If the Twins can find a decent return that would be my first option. If they cannot trade him then I am willing to move on from Farmer instead. I really like Farmer as a baseball player and person but he just hasn't performed well enough with the bat and Polanco is a more versatile and overall better bat. If space on the 40 man is needed I would consider moving on from Farmer. Lewis can play short if Correa needs a break and when Lee comes up he can play there too if needed.
  22. Dman
    He probably comes in just outside the top 20. It has been two years of pro ball and he hasn't had an OPS over .700 in any month that I can see since May of 2022. Doesn't matter how good a fielder you are if the bat isn't good enough the shine is off IMO. He is still very young for the level at only 20 years old and August might be the first month he shows he can have a month with a .700 OPS which isn't exactly a high bar. He has plenty of time to move back up but I think he is where he belongs for now.
  23. Dman
    Thanks! I thought that was the case, but was hoping for more especially on the fastball side. Gonna be hard to move past AA with that arsenal. Kind of Cody Lawyerson like. Well I still like the kid and maybe he can be a one in a million Radke type pitcher.
  24. Dman
    I haven't been a fan of Winkel mainly because I feel his defense isn't that great and his bat sort of ho hum. For the month of August though he has an OPS over 1.000. Probably just a hot streak but if the bat stays even close to those numbers the Twins have have a lot of bat first catchers in the system in Winkel, Cossetti, Cardenas and Morales with Camargo a Power first bat. Hoping he keeps it going. Ohl I love his stuff and mentality but I do wonder if it will translate to MLB. Does anyone know if he has plus pitches or does he just mix things and have great control? He is looking like one of the better arms at AA right now.
  25. Dman
    Baseball is an unpredictable game. You can have the "best" team on paper and still lose to the plucky last place team in the league. Players get injured and players don't perform as expected on every team which changes the dynamic of a teams season. Still as fans you want your team to win every game even though that isn't going to happen. If you are a fan you have expectations of your star players and that is supposedly why teams pay lot's of money to keep star players. Watching Buxton actually hurt the team this year doesn't feel good. Watching Correa with maybe the worst offensive season of his career feels. well, offensive. Bringing in Gallo and blocking younger players given the results isn't fan friendly either. We are fans we want to cheer on our hero's but when they go missing I think we have a right to feel disappointed. I think most fans are happy the Twins are in 1st place but this is Minnesota the land of waiting for the other shoe to drop. Just last year the Guardians reeled the Twins in and the Twins fell out of the race. That feeling is very fresh in the minds of many fans. When this team blows games with poor pitching or offense or both it hurts losing winnable games and while it happens to all teams it hurts worse when you are clinging to a .500 record and fearing another let down at the end of the season like just last year. Then there is just the sheer embarrassment factor of leading your division with a .500 record when at times the East has 4 teams with better records. It is hard to feel good about your team when staring that in the face. Maybe it is too much to ask for your star players to be stars or for your team to perform with enough consistency to be 10 games over .500 and look like a team in the hunt for a championship. Maybe the scars of being swept in the post season should just be swept under the rug. Maybe hoping that a flawed team gets hot at the right time should be our only hope every year but I think most fans would like more than that. Yeah the Twins are in 1st place and that is better than what the other central teams have managed this year. Yes the Twins are at least over the .500 mark so far. Yes I am happy they are leading instead of trailing, but those seem like pretty low bars in the grand scheme of baseball's ultimate prize. I don't think that makes fans snooty I think it makes them realists.
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