Dman

That is a good list. I really thought SWR was going to be something, but it really looks like he is stalling out at the higher levels. Not sure what the answer is there, but pen does seem likely at this point. Tough break on Prielipp. A steal in the 2nd round even if he ends up in a relief role. It is a long road back, but lot's of players have made it back. Hoping it just takes a bit more time but he reaches his full potential. Time will tell. Salas was a major disappointment. A bit more progress at the plate late in the season, but when you have a bat that bad it seems the whole approach is wrong. He is in Cavaco territory right now. Still young with a chance to bounce back, but next year is super important. If the bat doesn't progress the odds it ever will become lower and lower.

I think that is a good point. He never seems to get used as a top of the rotation arm. Come playoff time he tends to get bumped to the pen so that could offset his perceived value and I agree Eovaldi looks better for that role than Maeda. For 20M you would like to get a bit more than Maeda I get that, but if you only want a one year deal you generally have to give more AAV and I don't think the Twins want\need Maeda for more than one more year. Just need a bridge to Raya, Festa, Lewis and hopefully more arms after that. As noted by many it doesn't feel like the Twins have the money to spare if he accepts the QO. So my whole premise is likely moot. Thanks for the great feedback!

Very good analysis and it is spot on IMO. As others have noted if he accepts the QO then the offseason adds are likely done for the season. Given the budget they might also need to get rid of Polanco\Kepler and or Farmer just to make room for the money involved. My main thought was if he accepts it helps with the rotation for one more year at an overpay of possibly 6M depending on how you value him. If he declines as you noted at least the Twins get something of value which is an extra draft pick and or extra money to spread around in the draft. As you noted Maeda getting a contract over 50M is very low given his age and production so he is not going to bring back a low 1st round pick. With the Twins being cap strapped probably not going happen as the risk reward is too great. Appreciate your insight. I felt it really got to the crux of the issue.

There is a good chance the FO replaces Maeda internally with Varland or a cheaper possibly bounce back free agent next year instead of investing in Maeda. The TV contract being up in the air likely leaves my Maeda idea in the dust bin. The only reason I bring up the QO for Maeda is Nick Nelson's article which identifies 2025 as a pinch point in the budget. While they would have to overpay for Maeda it would only be a one year deal and I only see Maeda accepting a one year deal for extra money as he can certainly get a two year deal and if any kind of bidding war three years on the Free agent market. The bar based on what similar pitchers got was around 15M per year so unless I am missing something he is going to make good money in his next contract. The FO might not feel they need Maeda "that" bad I don't know, but given what I laid out above if they wanted to just keep him for one more year the QO could likely accomplish that at a slightly over priced rate. If he doesn't accept then at least there is an extra pick and more money in the pool for the draft.

Yeah I here ya. Eovaldi got 2\34 last year and his ERA has looked better than Maeda's going into his contract year. Still I think Maeda could get a similar deal. 21 is only 4M more than 17 and then the Twins don't have to bring him back when the money crunch hits in 2025. They paid Gray 12.5M last year plus Maeda's old Salary and the difference isn't that large. Still I think you are right. With the TV deal unsettled they probably don't want to take on 21M even if he did accept it, but good luck finding anyone close to Maeda for under 15M per year on the FA market. I guess I was just surprised that I could talk myself into it making sense.

Looking at his body of work it doesn't feel like Maeada is worth 21M per year but as I snooped around looking at last years numbers for pitchers it looked like several pitchers with his numbers are worth at least 15M per year. In 2021 Zach Grienke got 13M per year in his age 39 season and the washed up Hill managed 8M last year. Even a bounce back look at Thor cost 13M last year. While Kenta's overall numbers weren't ace level last year the Athletic noted that his ERA from June till the end of the year was 3.36. He struggled early with his arm and velocity but once it all came back in June he looked like a top of the rotation arm. The K rate was solid. He gave up some just over the fence HR's or his ERA might have been even better. It is hard to crack the 20M barrier but it seems like a team desperate for pitching could go 2 years 32M to 37M with a buy out on the end offering a third year. It seems close enough to QO money to offer it IMO. If he takes it then the Twins get a really good arm (slightly overpriced) for one more year to add depth and if someone still offers him a multi-year deal and he takes it then at least the Twins get comped with a 2nd or 1st round pick depending on the money involved. I just can't see him getting anything less than 15M per year even at his age even with the question marks about his arm staying strong throughout a full season. Am I way off base here? Let me know your thoughts.

It would really be nice if Festa turned into a big league rotation option this coming year. I haven't been as high on Festa after seeing him late in the season at Beloit in 2022. He was good that night but he gave up some real solid contact as well. I didn't come away as impressed as I had hoped I would be. Still the numbers don't lie and his ERA at AA was good for that league as lot's of pitchers got pummeled there. His xFIP and FIP make him look even better at that level. I still have my concerns and it will be interesting to see how he does at AAA this coming year. I am hoping he looks better than ever and can be a rotation helper later in the season if needed. I didn't like the Schobel pick when the Twins made it, but he made a believer out of me when leading the Midwest league in OPS and HR's until his promotion. I don't know what happened at AA that set him back but am hoping he bounces back. His numbers at High A were better than a lot of 1st round draft picks so the potential is there. He just needs to prove he still has that balanced approach next year at AA. Loved Rosario's season if the K rate was lower he would be top 5 for me. I was talking him up all season as he started well with just a bit of a slump in the second half. I will say I was surprised he was the MVP of the league, but his offensive numbers were good enough to warrant it and his defense turned out to be better than I realized as well. If he can control the zone a bit more he is going to be monster bat IMO.

I was just thinking that if they are building him back to be a starter how many innings can they put on his arm this year? If in the pen he can pitch can all year NP and likely be ready for a MLB role this year. If starting it feels like that all gets pushed back IMO. Maybe not, but fresh off TJ they will likely take things slow. I want him to get to MLB as soon as possible and am not worried about years of control. Even if he gets to MLB this year he will be an old man in MLB years by the time team control is up.

Yeah the placeholder idea is appealing for the right price. Hard to say if Miranda will be ready to start the season and Severino and Lee need more time in AAA as well so that spot could be light when lefties pitch. Relying on young bats to start the season generally is a bad idea as there is no way to know how they will perform. It will be interesting to see what moves the Twins make this offseason. There are ways there could be room for Solano but other players would need to be traded or let go first IMO.

Personally I was hoping they would move him to the pen sooner rather than later to add another hard throwing top end guy to solidify possibly the teams greatest weakness. If he is effective the first couple of months he could help the team faster that way. And yet I get that they likely don't want to throw away a guy that has 4 average to above average pitches in there unless the arm can't take it. He is 26 to start the year next year so it will be interesting how they handle him. I would guess your Louie Varland comparison is spot on for Canterino.

All of these great reports have me excited, but I need to see a full season to be more comfortable with the hype. As mentioned by others Twins were very fortunate to get pick number 5 in a five player draft. A draft where any of the top 5 could have gone 1-1 in other years. Still a long ways to go though.

I do agree with the premise of this article that Solano's numbers will not be easy to replace. There was a moment there around mid season where he was around an .800 OPS and looking like a close Arraez replacement. He also was a tough out in clutch situations and a dangerous bat even with two strikes. His .282 BA shows he can hit but most of those hits were singles. He also doesn't hit for much power so pitchers had a tendency to go right after him not fearing he would do much damage. The main issues though are that he doesn't have much positional flexibility and he is going to be 36 next year. Also there isn't going to be much 40 man room left after the Twins add Martin, Camargo, Rodriguez and Severino to the 40 man. The Twins might also try to lower payroll until the TV deal is figured out and I think Solano will have earned a raise after what he did this past year. So all of those things seem like strikes against bringing him back. I think he has a couple of good years left in that bat if healthy and put in good platoon spots he can still be very effective, but I don't see him as a good fit for the Twins who have a lot of young bats coming up. They might not be able to instantly replace Solano's production but I think they can get close and they need opportunities to play as well. I was happily surprised by what Solano brought to the team last year, but I still think it is time to move on.

I was hesitant on the Jenkins pick because he didn't get the love the other four guys got leading up to the draft. So in my mind he comes better than advertised in his SSS. I can't say I am ready to jump to super star status just yet, but love to see people outside the org this excited about him. For me I need to see a full season before I can get as giddy\gushy as these guys are. They get to see a lot of players though so for them to be this high on Jenkins definitely means something IMO. However. I am a Minnesotan and need a bit more time to make sure he can live up to the hype before being a true believer.

I wrote earlier that I felt he had a good thing going in MN and Boston is not an easy place to hide like Minnesota. I know he is well thought of league wide so I hope the Twins keep him and Falvey together to see if they can create some long term success together.

Nice to see the MVP with a good week. I am a big believer in Rosario's bat. Still some work to do with the K rate and getting more of those flies to left over the fence, but he has improved every year and with his breakout year this year hoping he is ready to tackle AA next year. Carr was not really on my radar as he is older, He had an excellent season at High A but he was old for the level. If his stuff translates to AA and AAA though that would be big since he is a lefty. I am rooting for him but the odds are long there. Cossetti is bumming me out a bit, but adding in fall league makes it a looong season for a catcher. He has been dominant through high A but AA is a different animal so I hope he can rise to the challenge next year. No one is having a Jullien type Fall League experience but it should help all them be better players in the end.

It looked like Alcala was throwing a Sweeper when he came back and if he just limits the HR's and harder contact he could be a really good reliever. If he makes it he will need to produce as this seems like the last year they could wait on him to get better. I think the more he can stay away from using his fastball or making it tougher to hit the better he will be. Not sure why Luplow isn't gone already, but he will be. I go back and forth on Gordon. His hit tool has always come around at every level. If he is a fairly consistent .800 OPS hitter that would be important for this team. If he is just going to OPS .750 or less he feels more like a liability than asset to me. Guessing they do everything they can to keep him on the 40 man to give him one more year, but we will see.

I guess I am not convinced the Twins will come up with another Pablo Lopez type deal this offseason. With Paddocks return and if they can resign Maeda I think the Rotation moves are likely smaller this year. I don't know if the TV contract stuff is going to resolve itself or not yet but with that uncertainty I have to believe they look long and hard at Trading Polanco and possibly even Kepler if the returns are half way decent. I would look to build a deal around one of them for pitching if possible. I can't see them trading Jeffers for pitching at this time. Catcher is such an important position and getting offense from that position such a bonus to the lineup it would take a big deal to get that done IMO. An all around skilled catcher is as rare as a high end pitcher. I would stick with Jeffers for now. I don't see Castro being enough to be the main piece in a deal. It would be rare for a utility player to fetch much on the market. I guess Zobrist was a player able to bring back good returns but I don't think Castro is at that level just yet. If a team was willing to overpay for Willie I would take that deal in a heartbeat, but I don't see it happening. I think he has more value to the Twins than anything he could bring back in a trade. Larnach is a wild card for me. I think he is better than the numbers indicate right now. I think he is a solid defender in left and that his power will play eventually. I wouldn't sell low on Larnach but again if a team came with a solid offer for what I think he could\should be then I would take it. He isn't a great fit for the current roster and if he brought back more pitching that would be helpful. Hard to day what will develop on the trade market but I have to believe the Twins will make some trades this offseason and hopefully they can land another good arm or two in those deals.

I think the Red Sox would be lucky to get him. He is a good negotiator. I can't think of a contract ever put together like he was able to do with Buxton. Granted Buxton wanted to be here, but Levine didn't give him super star money to stay and given the way things are playing out that was a smart play. I did think Buxton would have stayed healthy longer but that is the risk you take from both sides. I guess I don't know why he would want to go to Boston. The pay increase would be nice but the pressure he will face there will be a lot larger than Minnesota. I believe he is coming off of three division tiles out of 6 years in Minnesota so if he stays he could be in Minnesota for a while. if he does well in Boston it would really put him on the map and they have money to spend so he should be able to build a good team quickly. He has the skills and experience to do well there, but if he doesn't deliver fairly quickly he will be out and it won't be easy to get back in. Mediocrity is not an option in Boston. Odds are he gets offered and takes the job, but we will see.

I have De Leon, Luplow, Ortega, and Stevenson off the 40 man for sure. Gordon is far from a certainty IMO, but if they don't see Balazovic as a starter and if his stuff isn't as good as Henriquez, Moran and Alcala he could be next in line to be moved if room is needed. I think you need to keep in mind there still could be trades of Farmer, Polanco or Kepler especially if the Twins need to trim payroll and they also need to backfill pitching so Maeda could be back as could Pagan if they can't find anything better at their price points. They also might want to add more proven arms to the pen. Hard to say. Still I don't think Jordy is a for sure gonner, but I agree he is on the bubble.

I really like what Castro brings to the team. Solid defense where ever he plays and a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate. He also can steal bases. They need to bring him back IMO. Thielbar looks like he might finally be slowing down, but we don't really have anyone better and he is a much needed lefty so he will be back. I go back and forth on Alcala and Gordon. They have shown flashes but have been far from consistent to this point. I hate giving up on guys but I don't know what the Twins will do. I tend to agree with @2wins87 the FO likely wants to give those two one more shot, but hard to say for sure. I think Farmer has more trade value than most years. The FA market is light on SS talent this year. Any team looking for help there might pony up more than normal for Farmer. With Castro, and Lewis able to sub for Correa at short they could move on from Farmer if the price is right. The timeline for Lee is unknown but odds are he could be a mid year option and he can play short as well. If they are keeping Polanco it feels like someone has to go and Farmer seems the most likely to me. Still if the trade offers are poor maybe they just hang onto him until the deadline next year as he is an important piece especially if injuries occur. As always it will be interesting to see what the Twins ultimately do.

Yeah Kiersey is a tough one to peg right now. The .300 BA at AA indicates he can really hit and he slugged pretty well at that level as well. Still the numbers fell off in AAA and would only likely get worse at the MLB level. He needs more time to adjust to breaking stuff and he has a low walk rate which doesn't bode well for future MLB success IMO. I don't think you compare him to MAT though as he is a righty. The comparison is Gordon who also doesn't walk much and seems to be pegged mainly in a center field role. They are similar hitters IMO although I think Gordon is slightly better. Keirsey is a faster runner with 31 Steals last year and plays pretty elite centerfield defense. Like Stevenson that would be a nice thing to have off the bench late in close games and he has all three options left so you can move him up and down as the team has various needs. You would be gaining another good\elite defender who hits righties better than Lefties with a lot of roster flexibility if better options present themselves. You say those types are easy to find but until recently the Twins haven't seemed to be able find them and they almost weren't even able to get MAT last year until KC caved. Still I will agree there is a decent chance Kiersey doesn't get picked in Rule V as it is hard to tell if the bat will play and the low walk rate gives him little to work with at the MLB level. Odds are they don't add him but there is case to be made IMO.

Hoping that with Helman's limited playing time last year they can hide him one more year in AAA. Still if I am Helman and looking at the logjam in the infield it might be best to see if KC, Oakland, Anaheim or Chicago have room for me in minor league FA. He is isn't exactly young so can't really afford to wait too long for his shot.

Yeah I feel like they banked on Moran, Winder, Sands, Balazovic and maybe Henriquez to step up in 2023 and justify their 40 man spots and none of them really did. I know bullpen arms are variable year to year but I don't think they carry all those questionable arms on the 40 man next year. And yet they might be able to find room to give them one more year to develop. Hard to say, but I agree with you that they should do more to solidify the relief arms on the 40 man. Hopefully they can work out some trades to get better there. At the end of 2024 they will have to add more arms like Festa, Raya maybe Ohl, Nowlin, McCleod so those bubble guys don't have long to get it together.

Yeah but they are going to need to add Miranda and Gordon back to the 40 man and so it isn't going to be the same 40 man that is there right now once the 60 day IL's come back on. Not sure what they do with Taylor. His .700 OPS seems replaceable but his defense won't be as easy to replace. Maybe Martin, Castro, Buxton can fill it next year hard to say how the Twins feel but if he is gone it does open up space for all four pretty easily. Even after dropping De Leon, Ortega and Pagan they need room for Alcala and Funderburk (who I have replacing Ortega). Unless they move on from one or two of Henriquez, Sands, Balazovic, Winder it looks tight once they likely add a vet or two this offseason. I think it is tighter than you are realizing.

I will say I was mildly surprised that he sounded genuine about wanting to be back. Still most every player likes to stay in the same place as long as possible to keep their family in the same place and so they pretty much always say they would like to stay until a better offer comes around,. I think he will be highly sought after this offseason and I don't see a ton of financial flexibility for the club with Pablo's contract taking hold and Correa and Buxton's Salaries things are getting tighter on the payroll end. He should easily get 25M to 30M per year and I think he can get three years with maybe an option for four. That seems high for the Twins. For me I don't see a deal getting done but then I didn't see the Correa deal working out either so it could happen but it is a long shot IMO. FWIW I would like to have Sonny back. Really good leadership, not afraid to speak his mind and tireless worker toward perfection he is an asset that will be sorely missed if he leaves. Those are big shoes to fill if he isn't here next year, but hopefully this team takes it up another notch regardless of what happens with Sonny.