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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    That is why they need a challenge system in place. It stops the Umps emotional side from taking over as he would only be embarrassed to have so many calls overturned. Hate it when umpires take over games as players work hard to succeed and they can take some of that away when their ego gets in the way. Interestingly in the Cedar Rapids game both teams lost their 3 challenges by the 6th inning with the umpire winning 6 of the 7 challenges. Umps can be good too.
  2. Dman
    IMO it could be Julien or Kirilloff. Seeing as there is a lot of coverage for second base and less in the outfield Julien feels like the odd man out. If they want to split time with Santana and Miranda at 1st base then maybe they send down Kirilloff? I guess it just depends on how they want to strengthen the team. I think who ever gets sent down it might be a blessing to get everyday work in a less pressure filled environment. Gain some confidence and be ready for the next injury or moves at the trade deadline.
  3. Dman
    Nice to see Okert and Sands come through with drama free innings and cap off the win. Giving the main guys a rest was much needed. For as much I don't feel like Okert is very dominant his ERA is 2.86 (although FIP &xFIP see it a run higher). HIs K rate is ok and even though he walks too many guys he has brought his WHIP down to 1.26. For what ever reason I always feel like I am squirming when he is pitching, but that is a pretty decent line for a Lefty. Hope he looks even better as the year goes on.
  4. Dman
    How do you feel the board stacks up for that Comp A pick? There should be some good arms left at that spot. For the First round would you do Bat/Arm or Arm/Bat or would you be tempted to go Bat/Bat based on the fairly short supply of quality hitters this year and hope one of those arms you like falls to round 2.
  5. Dman
    I don't know if you have watched Doncon on MiLB.tv but he looks really good at 3rd base IMO. Probably a plus defender there. I think he looks OK at short right now as well, but he is a big guy and I think as he fills out he will likely have to move off of short. I don't think they have had him play in the outfield but I think he would be a great left fielder as well. He has the arm and he runs well. High A will be a big test with the bat since he is younger. If the bat holds up he should be a very versatile player that could be a plus defender in a couple of spots.
  6. Dman
    I am wondering what the Twins draft strategy might be for this upcoming draft. They have an extra 1st and 2nd round pick this year so they could go bat, arm, bat, arm and keep things even or they could go bat, bat, arm, arm or perhaps bat, bat, bat, arm? I recently looked at where guys on the Twins MLB team were drafted and it seems like if you want legit bats you need to draft them in the 1st or 2nd round. Let me first say that I am someone who always wanted the Twins to take pitching in the first round. My question is should the Twins take bats with their first two picks and also use one of their two second round picks on a hitter? Hear me out. When you look at the bats who have made it out of the Twins system to MLB. They are all primarily first or second round picks. 1st round picks are Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin. 2nd round picks are Jeffers, Miranda, and the rest are international free agents like Kepler, Castro, Santana, Margot, Rodriguez and Camargo. Jullien was taken late but interestingly he was supposed to be a late 1st round to second round pick but had a poor season and dropped. Vasquez and Farmer were later picks but are in more support roles than starting roles. My point is that for bats if you go out of the second round the chances of them making it to MLB and making a difference appears to be minute. Now look at the Twins rotation and there isn’t a single arm taken in the first round. Ryan (7), Paddack (8), Ober (12), Varland (15) and Pablo was an International Free agent that worked out. If Festa (13) makes it he would be another late round pick to make the rotation. Only SWR who was taken in the second round but given first round money I believe can make a case for being selected early. Even if you look at the top 30 prospect list, the bats are mostly taken in the first or second rounds. Jenkins, Lee, Schobel, Keaschall, Martin, (could make the case for Winokur who got first round money but taken in the 3rd) with mainly international free agents like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, De Andrade, Mercedes, Olivar and Rodriguez in the top 20 to 25. There are a few exceptions in Rosario, Cossetti, Cardenas and Ross, but none of them are top 10 system guys. So, for as much grief as I give the Twins it would seem to make the most sense to grab bats as much as possible in the first few rounds and go pitching the rest of the way as the odds seem to be in your favor with that strategy. I’m not saying you can never go pitcher in the first round or that it would never makes sense. I really liked the 2021 draft where they grabbed Petty number one and went pitchers in the 2nd , 3rd and 5th round. Other teams liked those picks too as we traded away the top 5 picks in that draft. Still it looks like they will get no hitting out of that draft either unless Cardenas can make it. OK so that’s my rant. If you don’t grab bats early the odds are extremely thin that they make it, but you can find arms in the later rounds. So, should the Twins focus on just bats early this year? Or are the bats just not good enough deeper into the draft for that to make sense?
  7. Dman
    I kind of hate pitchers with control problems. Just not reliable in critical situations. Still I can see going for it if they drop to right spot. I am pretty high on Nori, but I am a sucker for the hit\speed profile. I get that power\hit is hard to find and the most coveted, but guys that can play up the middle defense and get on base are pretty important too IMO. I think if his hit tool is solid he will be taken in the first round but hard to say given the competition in the top 30.
  8. Dman
    Cedar Rapids is the only affiliate with a chance at making the playoffs. With Keaschall now at AA would really be nice if they sent Eeles from Fort Myers to Cedar Rapids. I think he could provide a similar spark to the lineup. I would also have them send Poncho Ruiz. He is top 3 in the Florida State League in OPS and Batting average. They have good starting pitching but could use some lineup help and I think they could be a playoff contender again. Those two players could get them, there. Speaking of Poncho Ruiz and I know this is a small sample size, but how did they not draft him in their top 20 picks last year? I believe he was known as a really good defensive catcher with maybe not much of a bat, but as of right now he is one of the top hitters in his league. I hear they picked him up right after the draft and he came in with the rest of the draftee's which was a great pickup, but if he was identified as a draft worthy player why not draft him instead of some of those longshot players they draft at 19 and 20? At any rate he could be the catcher the Twins have been looking for if he can keep hitting all the way up. In the end great get by the Twins.
  9. Dman
    I think it is likely prudent to give Paddack a break. He was going to need a few just coming back from TJ. I wouldn't mind giving Festa a shot, but what would his innings limit for this year be? If added to the 40 man is he going to be available the whole season? That being said he will need to added to the 40 at the end of the season to avoid being selected in Rule V draft so maybe just bite the bullet and make room early. They still might give Varland one more try, but he hasn't seemed to fix the homer problem he seems to have. Hard to say what they will do, but it would be nice to see what Festa can do at the MLB level.
  10. Dman
    I was thinking an arm break as well. I think he has 5 innings or more every time out and not sure what they feel his innings limit will be, but maybe best to skip a start to keep him on track to pitch the whole season within the innings limit they have for him.
  11. Dman
    Man Eeles has been swinging like a 1st round draft pick. I'm sure they love him at A ball but he could be a good guy to replace Keaschal at High A and being that he is older wouldn't hurt to move him tad faster than most guys. HIs approach looks sound and he seems to make solid contact with 6 double, 2 triples and 2 HR's in the few weeks he has been around.
  12. Dman
    It was good game for Zebby, but with his standards set so high it felt a bit like a let down as he wasn't as dominant as he has been. St. Louis has some good hitters and it showed. Still he pitched well and this is why he was moved to AA to face tougher hitters. Langenburg has been a bit up and down, but he is starting to pile up the K's. The stuff is there. Hopefully he refines it and moves up to high A at the mid way point.
  13. Dman
    It is so odd how those numbers can fluctuate in the minors. I guess guys get figured out? Williams, Prato, Wallner, most of the Saints lineup hasn't been all that great this year except for Keirsey I too was hoping for more from Prato after what seemed like a breakout last year and while the walks are great he needs to hit and with extra bases to get looked at. Helman looking more like the guy the Twins would use if needed as his HR power and position flexibility make him very appealing, but can he stay healthy?
  14. Dman
    Man I don't think I have given SWR enough credit this year. I hate to be that guy, but I kind of thought he might be due for a let down and his stuff wouldn't play. I have been waiting for failure, but he keeps producing. I couldn't have been more wrong. Another very solid outing and he has done everything I could have hoped to help right the ship in that 5th spot. I do hope he keeps it up. Some clutch hitting tonight and the pen held. Had to be interesting for Staumont and the Royals. He didn't strike anyone out but only needed 10 pitches to get out of the inning. It still seems odd to me that they gave gave up on him with an option year left. Happy to get the win and hopefully we find a way to take the series.
  15. Dman
    I do and will since it seems to be the measure used. Just like intentional walks one could say the same thing about a batter who checks his swing and gets a hit or a full swinging bunt that finds a dead zone and counts as a hit. Not really skill, but a lucky outcome. Or how about when a position player pitches and guys hit HR's. Those things skew stats too. Most walks are earned by knowing the zone and making the pitcher work. Plate discipline is considered a skill one that is generally necessary to be successful at the MLB level. To me the reason BA can't include walks is because if they counted then since they don't count as a hit they would actually lower a players batting average and if you counted them as a hit, as you mentioned above it doesn't tell a true story of the players ability to hit the ball. It would only tell us about OBP with no context about the ability to hit. They need to be kept separate to give us a better idea of how well a player can hit versus get on base. But to say walks don't count at all is disingenuous because a player that walks still counts as a run when they cross home plate. It is still a plate attempt with a positive outcome (i.e. not an out) and it should be included in K% because while a walk might not be a hit it is also not an out.
  16. Dman
    Hey like I said I calculated that way and everywhere else I looked it was plate attempts. Both Fangraphs and B-Ref do it that way. When cited by announcers it seems to be the same as the other online sites. Interestingly MLB.com doesn't calculate it for you. When you think about it though plate attempts makes more sense as they walked in that at bat they didn't make an out or strike out it was a positive result. A walk can't count as a hit for batting average, but we sure keep track of OBP which includes the walk stat. Walks are important and they should count as a positive outcome they aren't nothing in the context of strikeouts. So i think PA makes sense as it includes all outcomes not just hits and outs like BA.
  17. Dman
    I made the same mistake a while back when we still had Brent Rooker and my calculation was 40%.K rate You need to use PA (Plate attempts) and then the numbers will work out better. Speaking of Rooker I gave up on him because of K rate and poor fielding and I believe he is 8th in league OPS right now. So you never know when a player might find something. Most don't, but never say never I guess.
  18. Dman
    Yeah by slump proof I just felt that even if he didn't get a hit for a week he might walk 7 to 10 times keeping his OBP on track until the hits started falling again. HIs 20% walk rate in the minors seemed like it could help him avoid complete 0 for nights. This year he is still walking at a good pace 12.6% but his K rate is 10% higher than at AAA at nearly 35% this year. Lots of people were screaming regression was coming after last year because of the high BABIP of .371, but his BABIP had been in the .380 range the last three years so I got fooled by his numbers a bit and felt his unique approach might allow for a higher BABIP. Certainly not at the .370 range, but I thought he could maybe hang around .350 with his picky approach. The difference this year is his BABIP is more normalized at .280 and his K rate the highest of his professional career at 33.5%. The higher K rate leaves fewer balls to be put in play and he isn't making the solid contact this year that he did last year. Pitchers have caught on and are creating tougher decisions as they move those strike 3 pitches just into the zone instead of just outside. Not all the time as his 12% walk rate shows but enough variance to up his K rate. They also seem to be staying away from his hot zone or throwing tougher pitches there which explains the poor contact leading to the lower BABIP. It looks like it is going to take some time for him to work through things IMO. I still think he has a strong approach, but he needs to find ways to impact the ball in more areas of plate and he might need to swing at pitches slightly out of the zone after two strikes to protect the plate. I still think he will make the adjustments but it might take longer than the Twins can afford. Have to wait and see I guess. To your point yes every player slumps during the year. Often times due to small injuries or just tough BABIP luck. Walks can help keep a hitter afloat though.
  19. Dman
    Yeah I was just thinking about this when people were mentioning keeping Kepler. They have 84M tied up in Correa, Lopez, Buxton and Vasquez next year. Shedding Vasquez's salary almost seems like a must if they are going to make any moves. There will be arb raises to deal with and they might have to beef up the outfield if they let Kepler go. I love the guys defense, but the bat is nearly an automatic out. If the Twins FO is willing to spend more next year it might not matter that much, but if they are keeping things around 130M I don't love the idea of 10M of that being taken by Vasquez. I don't think I could stomach sending a prospect to get rid of him. He has value as a backup catcher just not 10M worth of value IMO.
  20. Dman
    I was right there with you. I really felt his mastery of the zone would buoy him through slumps. His not swinging at strikes he doesn't like appears to be catching up to him. I still think he will make the adjustments he needs to make and be a stronger hitter when it is all said and done. Just hard to watch right now. So much goes into the game that makes it so hard to predict. just a centimeter off with the bat to the ball can be the difference in a ground ball, pop fly or home run. Sometimes poor contact gets you a hit and hard contact an out. With all the data out there teams can pinpoint weaknesses quickly and exploit them so it is hard to get consistent results. Still yeah, I thought Julien had the elite plate discipline to slump proof him. Looks like adjustments need to be made.
  21. Dman
    I've been thinking about this as well. As pointed out in the article there are two things that make the QO a very tough decision. First Max's offensive numbers need to remain in the top 20 to 30 players and second can the Twins afford to keep him if he decides to accept the QO? Even if Max has a career year this year he only has a little over one years evidence that his bat is elite. He also is an above average defender but his age is not ideal for anything beyond a three year deal. Still I think if the numbers stay elite offensively he can find a good deal for himself if he rejects the QO. If he falls off to just above average offensively I don't see them taking the risk. A lot has to go right the rest of the season for Max to get a qualifying offer. I think in the end the Twins won't take the risk, but we'll have to see how his season shakes out first.
  22. Dman
    I think Festa has a real shot at being the next man up even though he isn't on the 40 man roster. HIs stuff has always been good, it has been more about keeping it going the second and third time through the order. It is early and they just started letting him go 80 pitches or so in a game so hard to say his stamina will remain, but with the K rate he currently has I have to believe that should translate well to MLB. If Lewis returns it seems harder to see them needing Lee. Even if Jullien gets sent back they have Castro and Farmer for that spot so they wouldn't "need" Lee there, but if he is killing it in AAA sure I could see them switch Jullien for Lee if Jullien continues to slump. I think the OP has the timing on Rodriguez about right. Unless there is another Kepler and or Larnach injury I don't see them Moving Rodriguez to the MLB level. He should face some AAA competition to be sure he can handle more breaking and off speed stuff from the AAAA, fringe MLB players that are there. If he can do that then they might as well see what he can do at the MLB level. Still I think they remain patient since he is only 21. Raya and Severino would be huge long shots IMO. Raya needs a lot of improvement just to be considered. He has the pitches but he needs better command and control. WHIP is too high especially for the small amount of innings pitched. Hopefully he figures a few more things out and becomes a bit more dominant.
  23. Dman
    I don't love going 3rd baseman high in the draft, but it is better than going after a 1st base\DH player. If taking one high I feel like they should be above average defensively and offensively. I can't say I love any of these guys, but Tommy Tanks is a cool name and he has the power the Twins love. My Favorite though would be Cam Smith as he has the defense to go along with the offense. Really hard to say who might work out best but that would be my pick with the info I have (which isn't much).
  24. Dman
    Ohl just keeps pitching well and gets no respect from top 30 lists. He has pitched the 2nd most innings in the Texas league. He is 4th in WHIP and top 10 in ERA. He probably is the best pitcher on the WindSurge that started the season there.. He doesn't get a lot of love because his K rate is low, but his stuff is still hard to square up. But when balls are finding holes he can have tough nights and when they are finding gloves he often goes deep into games. He's not totally pitch to contact, but since he is around the zone so much it seems likely there will always be some pitch to contact in his game unless he can refine some things. I think it is time to see what he has at AAA. HIs control is good enough for MLB, but can he keep the ball off the barrels? That will make or break him probably similar to Varland in that respect. I was surprised they started Soto in A ball. He likely is only going to pitch 50 innings to 60 tops. That's only 10 to 12 games at 5 innings an outing. Which is why short season ball made more sense to me. Still they must have felt he needed to go against better competition to learn the things he needed to learn. I know he teased us a bit with a game where he no hit the opponent for 5 innings, but there were always going to be growing pains IMO. He already has pitched 22 innings so I would expect to see shorter outings or skipping some starts so he can make it through the season within his pitch\innings limit this year. There is a lot for him to learn his first year. That being said he has pitched really, really well this year so far. Although his ERA is high a lot of that has to do with the defense behind him as his FIP is 3.72 much better than his ERA. His K rate is strong at 11.5/9 or 27% so his pitches have been affective. He needs work not too surprisingly on command and control. Too many walks and way too many hits are hurting him. Kid is only 18 with extremely limited experience and now in pro ball. I think he is doing great so far.
  25. Dman
    I'm still concerned with Rodriguez's contact rate. It's not as good as Lee and likely Jenkins. As mentioned above as he deals with elite pitching at the MLB level those walks will start to disappear or at least come down quite a ways. Like Jullien it feels like there are holes in his swing and they will find those spots in MLB. That being said I love Rodriguez's plate discipline, power, and clutch hitting. He seems solid defensively though I don't see him as an elite center fielder. Despite all the great things he is doing I still have the top three as Jenkins, Lee and E-Rod. He can feel free to prove me wrong when he gets to the Majors this year.
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