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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah I don't know what is going on, but he seems like a shell of himself from past years. His control hasn't been great but 27 hits in 16 innings pitched and 6 of those were HR's says his stuff is way, way too hittable right now. It looks like he is trying to stay more out of the zone to compensate, but they need to revamp pitch shape, how they are attacking the zone or maybe just new pitches but a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP isn't going to bring him back to the show. IMO somethings wrong as he has been better than this all the way up. I have no idea what that something is, but hopefully they can get it corrected sooner rather than later. Edit: sorry those were MLB numbers. Actually even though his ERA is 5.31 at AAA his FIP is 3.78 and xFIP 3.58 which says the results should be better than they are. The K 9 is still good at AAA. Walks are in-line too. I don't know how to remove this post but it is not accurate. He is doing ok at AAA, but not dominating like he had in the past..
  2. Dman
    No one does Twins draft coverage like you do. Awesome guest and fun to see how so many view this draft. If as it seems the the next tier is 12 through about 40 the Twins should get two good players at 21 and 33 pretty much no matter what.
  3. Dman
    I think those are good reasonable points, but if baseball has taught me anything it is to expect the unexpected. Teams that get off to good starts can sometime mask their deficiencies just enough to take the division. Also injuries can play a huge role in team outcomes. Lose a couple of key bats or arms and that can affect the win\lose record real quick. I haven't looked that closely at the Guardians team, but I feel like Minnesota has the better deeper team. I also think the Twins can make up some ground as they play teams they have better odds of defeating. I still like the odds of the Twins winning the division, but we'll know more by the All Star break.
  4. Dman
    Good point. They would most likely just fill the backend with starters like SWR, Paddack, Varland, and maybe even Festa. They have some high octane K type pitchers to fill out the back end and be long relief if necessary. I don't see them trading for a reliever with all the other options they would have for the end of the season and playoffs.
  5. Dman
    I don't think the Twins will find any takers for underperforming players at the deadline. I also don't see them panicking and trading Kepler. They will want his veteran presence for the playoffs and if they get nothing for him and he walks at least they gave the team the best chance in the playoffs. If Stewart comes back and the pen stays healthy not sure they would absolutely need pen help, but sure they could try and make it even stronger further down the line. Right now I pretty much see them staying pat or maybe DFA'ing Farmer or Margo if they don't perform well enough to get Martin, Wallner, Julien or Lee back up. Of course injuries later in the season could change all that, but right now I don't see them being all that active at the trade deadline.
  6. Dman
    Hoping he stays healthy the rest of the season. If he can I have to believe they make room for him at some point this season.
  7. Dman
    Happy to have guys back. I think Camargo looks close to returning as well so St. Paul should be at full force soon. That lineup should be good with several players on the cusp of MLB time in Julien, Wallner, Martin, Camargo and Lee (could possibly add Hellman as well).. I really liked BA's top 100 list. I do think Keaschall deserves some recognition for his 1.000 OPS to start his first season of pro ball. I also liked that they recognized just how dominant Matthew's has been with his elite control and command. Granted I think Festa belongs as well, but their point about control being such a difference maker when making the jump makes sense to me. I mean Zebby is throwing strikes. They know he is throwing strikes and they can't do anything about it.. That is some good stuff.
  8. Dman
    Absolutely love these video's. I am a big fan of Mr. Leighton as I love the smile and enthusiasm he brings to the prospect world. I have a BA subscription but where does one go that site to find these videos?
  9. Dman
    ....And Zebby makes the top 100 at Baseball America. He is on a roll!!
  10. Dman
    3 ball 2 Strike counts are tough for both hitter and pitcher. Hitter has to feel they need to swing at anything that looks like it might be close to the zone and pitcher is hoping to make something look like it will be in the zone only to drop and if the batter doesn't swing leads to ball 4. To make a hitter chase you have to put balls in the zone otherwise they will never swing in those counts. So there is risk both ways. Putting the ball in the zone could lead to a hit. Going out of the zone could lead to a walk. That is a long way of saying perfecting the cat and mouse game at 3-2 takes good pitches, good control and a little luck sometimes IMO. He is still young and has time to get there, but I think you are right he likely needs to perfect his approach in those counts to get his WHIP down which helps everything else. I didn't look earlier but nice to see he isn't giving up lot's of xbh's as that means his stuff is hard to square up. Watching these games I have seen my fair share 2 strike counts and the batter essentially just sticks out his bat and manages a weak contact hit. That has to be tough on a pitcher as you generate the weak contact but don't get the out. Some hitters are just better at protecting the plate than others and while they don't always win those battles they are going to win some of them. So sometimes it is just tough luck. Still I think he has things to work on to become more dominant.
  11. Dman
    I kind of gave up on him a little after last years numbers. His WHIP this year is still high, but his ERA at A ball is a shiny 1.80 although FIP and xFIP see it a run or two higher. Still he has good numbers to start this year just not dominant one's. At the minor league level each teams lineups is so variable it can be hard to know what you have until much further down the line. Still for a 21 year old throwing 95 and only likely to get better the future looks bright for Olivares right now. We'll just have to wait and see how bright.
  12. Dman
    Yeah if you want to bet bigger on up the middle I would go with Wyatt Sanford instead of Culpepper. Sanford is a very good defensive shortstop and a plus runner. Hit tool and power about the same as Culpepper but Sanford is predicted to stick at short Culpepper more likely third. His high school timeline matches up better with Correa as well. I haven't seen his swing but I would bet the Twins could coax a bit more power out of Sanford since they would be getting him young.
  13. Dman
    I think that looks pretty solid through the first 20 picks or so. I have to say I don't love the Jordan pick. Could he be a steal? He sure could be, but when you are talking about contact problems not sure I am ready for that kind of risk. I think once bitten twice shy or maybe thrice bitten twice shy with similar plays for Cavaco, Wallner and Sabato. Granted Jordan has better physical skills than all of them, but power over hit just seems like a lot of strikeout pain hoping for better days ahead. It Feels like we have been there and done that and it hasn't worked out well. If he is the one who finds that other level you would be getting a 5 tool player top 3 pick at 21, but the odds are not in your favor IMO and is why he likely falls down the board. While I don't know how I feel about a 5'9" center fielder (Granted Ben Revere was 5'9") with a below average arm, I love everything else about Slade Caldwell. I love a plus hit tool. Throw in a guy who can steal bases and track down balls in the outfield and if he is still there I think he is my pick at 21. Gillen and his elite contact rates are also growing on me. Yet another weak armed 2nd baseman, but I think that is the only reason he drops that far down. I just think elite bat to ball is the way to go. I also am high on Benge. I like\love everything about the profile except maybe speed. Those would be the three guys I would look to take at 21 if it were me. Get the bat right because that is what matters most. If they can't hit they'll never make it. If they aren't elite fielders but can hit they will find a place for them. Get the hit tool right.
  14. Dman
    To be honest I was curious about how often Santana took it himself. I always thought the toss is what they were taught to do unless it looked like the pitcher got a late jump. As the article stated it doesn't really matter either way as long as you get the out and one could argue there is more risk in a fumbled handoff than just taking it yourself. At any rate thanks for finding some data as I wondered if he was an outlier.
  15. Dman
    Thanks for giving me a feel for what you think! I agree it is going to be a crazy draft after pick 12 or so. Could see some HS bats go higher than expected. Could see a run on pitchers. Could see the power guys go on a run. Impossible to know what will be there at 21 and 33, but there will be very good players in that range. I think they might just go bat, arm bat arm and keep it even, but I do feel the overall system could use more elite bats so bat, bat probably makes more sense. Likely depends on what is available at 33. I saw the drop off more at top 50 but I will defer to you with that top 40 number that separates the next tier. Which is a bit of a bummer as it comes just before our second round picks. Still I think that might be a good range to go high school pitcher if they don't all get swooped up before we pick. I would like to see them go bats with 3 of the first four picks and then go pitcher heavy the rest of the way. The Yankees have found some really good arms in the 4 through 7 round range and I think the Twins should try for more arms in that range. Then do their thing on day three. I think with 3 top round bats they can fill out the A ball roster with those three and the International free agents and then grab some day three hitters or Free agents to fill out the rest if needed. They should go arm heavy as their MiLB bullpen arms have been pretty bad and arms are going to get hurt at a higher rate than hitters so it makes sense to have more available. Will be interesting to see what they do.
  16. Dman
    Watching Zebby has been so much fun to start the year. Just amazingly dominant. I can't remember someone doing something like that since maybe Baily Ober? I hope he keeps that mojo all the way to AAA and finally to MLB. Would be nice to have another solid mid rotation starter.
  17. Dman
    There are going to be some interesting battles going on for playing time at 2nd and 1st base with Miranda, Kirilloff, Julien and Lee all fighting for two spots. May the best bat win.
  18. Dman
    Which begs the questions why keep Farmer at all? Keep Julien at second and then you have Castro to fill in at any spot and not be stuck at 2nd base.
  19. Dman
    I have always been a big Farmer backer, but I admit that I am frightened when Farmer is in the game especially with Vasquez as that is two near automatic outs in the lineup. I honestly don't think they would miss him much if he were gone as they could add Helman who plays every position and can't hit much worse than Farmer has if they needed that type of player. That being said Farmer has had some tough BABIP luck this year at .211 which has to rise and with that hopefully the slugging which is at a pathetic .239 with no HR's and only 7 doubles it is a brutal .513 OPS right now. Still his approach hasn't changed as he is walking at a 10% clip and only striking out at 20%. There is a solid chance for a turn around in the numbers. Given the choice made I sure hope Farmer can start making some noise with the bat. Having two black hole bats is generally a real rally killer for the team.
  20. Dman
    Nice to see Morris holding his own at AA. That is not an easy thing to do. SSS, but his numbers look the same as at high A to this point. Still feels like Eeles could be something special. I can't remember the Twins signing a free agent hitter with this much potential ever before. He has the speed to steal bases (11). He hits for average .341. He has been hitting for power SLG .537 and he walks about about as much as he strikes out giving him a .453 OBP. The guy is on base every other plate appearance. I get that he is old for this level and his BABIP is high at .400 but when your BA is .341 your BABIP is going to be higher. I'm just saying he appears to have every skill you would want in a hitter so I don't get why he wasn't drafted (I guess age)? At any rate he is playing better than some first round picks. They should move him up so he can be an actual prospect. They should try to get him to AA at the end of this year where his age would be closer to his level. He has a chance to be a top 30 prospect IMO.
  21. Dman
    I was thinking Kirilloff as he just wildly swings at stuff, but I forgot Julien has an extra option year and could use a reset just as much. I think it is the right move. I think he just needs to get his confidence back and he'll be a new man.
  22. Dman
    He at least had a walk that is something positive. Looks like as many predicted he will get sent down. He has the most options left and Castro or Farmer can slide into that spot. Hopefully Castro as his bat has been better. Julien will be back and I think a AAA reset should do him a lot of good.
  23. Dman
    Happy to see SWR get through 4 innings at least and not let the game get out of hand. Okert came up big in a tough situation and Miranda saved the day with that double to give them the lead. All the guys on the bubble did something positive today. Going to be very interesting to see who gets sent down. Feels like Miranda and Larnach are safe to me. A much needed win with the hot Yankee's next on the schedule and a much needed loss by Cleveland to get us back to 6 games back.
  24. Dman
    Good point. As best I can tell Jeffers had an .831 OPS in May. That seems better than most of the group listed. Granted his .214 BA was low, but when you are slugging .536 it doesn't matter that much. I think he must have been overlooked somehow to not make the list.
  25. Dman
    Santos was dealing. When he needed a pitch he went to what MiLB said was his cutter and he also got a couple of K's on the curve. A 30% K rate should get you moved up. They will probably wait until the second season starts in a couple of weeks, but he has good enough pitches to move up. So far he has come out of the pen but if ha has three pitches I wonder if they start him at some point. The new Guy Castro pitched pretty darn well too for his first time out. 4K's no hits no walks. Both pitchers are slightly old for the level so hopefully they move up soon. My man Poncho pumping that OPS up to .900. Quite the find for a free agent after the draft.
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