Dman

So it looks like you were right and I was wrong once again. They are sending Gibaut down so they must really like how Garlic fits to keep him on the 40 man.

That is one nasty pitch but if he only really has two pitches I would give the nod to Balazovic but if he does find that third pitch with the splinker I would have to give it to Duran. That is just filthy. Nice to see 5 pretty solid guys in Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, Sands and Windor with some pretty impressive stuff. Would love to see all of them make it.

It seems to me the FO is mainly interested in hard hit rate Offense in the early rounds with the exception of the two high school SS who both had questionable hit tools but were 5 tool players. Those SS picks seem pretty risky to take where they were picked but I guess they felt good about them or they wouldn't have done it. Keep in mind Lewis gave them a 1M discount which they used on Enlow who was supposed to be 1st round material essentially allowing them to have three first round picks if you choose to look at it that way. We have a ways to go to find out if it was the right move or not. I think Falvey is going to follow the Cleveland model and look for arms with traits they like in rounds 5-10 and reliever arms in rounds 11-20. At least that seems like the way things are going. If Sands and Windor work out it helps with the strategy of taking offense early. I still think it wouldn't hurt to use a year every now and then to take pitching early especially when they have a comp pick. Use the first pick on Offense then the second on a pitcher or vise versa depending on the players available. There is no reason not to take some shots earlier in the draft IMO. I know that since they pick late in the draft they want to go with the greatest offensive upside when they pick put the law of diminished returns has to kick in at some point and they need to look at positions outside of left field, first base and DH. Who knows maybe their strategy is the most prudent we will have to wait and see for a few more years but I think they should do what they can to have a surplus of pitching. It is easily tradable for other assets you might need and needs to be refreshed due to injury and the likelihood of not being able to pay top dollar for it. Yes you need offense too there is a balance but mixing it up makes the most sense to me.

And yet "the brilliant American Pickers out there finding diamonds in the rough" had the 5th best bullpen in all of baseball. Man those other 25 GM's must really be bad. Of those that were worse than this FO includes the World Series winning Dodgers as well who came in 10th. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-bullpens-in-mlb-2020

Look I could see where you were coming from in that first post in some ways. Yeah I am concerned about how Maeda will do over a full season. Yeah HR or bust hasn't seemed to work well in playoffs. Would I have liked to see slightly better pen arms especially in playoffs, you bet. I haven't looked into your comment about the defense last year but it could be right, I don't know. Sure this team could exceed expectations or fall flat we have seen them do both. However, the hyperbole about "This is the least I've cared about a Twins team going into a season in over fifteen years" and "This should be a make or break year for the FO and it doesn't look much different than other offseasons." Those statements kind of set me off. I just vehemently disagree with both of them. You certainly have a right to your opinion but when posted also a right to be questioned. Honestly I am not trying to be a dick, but I think you are lacking some objectivity in some of your assessments.

Dude are you serious? Levine is so bad the Phillies wanted him for the top job in their organization. Do you even read about Baseaball? https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/phillies-gm-thad-levine-twins-josh-byrnes-michael-hill Note the words successful turn around in the article as well.

Well they weren't last year otherwise they would have finished ahead of him in the voting. Sure every year is different and different guys emerge but the article never insinuated Maeda was bad or not top 5 or not top 10 etc. It just listed some of the best rotations out there.

What does this even mean? So you would say Andrew Friedman is a crappy GM because even though he had double the budget the Twins have and started with an ace pitcher he couldn't win the world series until last year with all those advantages so he sucks? I don't get your point? Cashman also should be fired for not delivering? Tampa Bay and Oakland can never be good because they generally trade good players away and use their farm to build their team? You lost me. I get your overall point that on paper the Twins did not improve all that much but unless they have a 200M budget what moves were they going to make to get much better than they are right now? The only potential bad contract on the team right now is Donaldson so what brilliant moves were going to move the needle and keep them within their budget? There is a reason we get a supplemental pick every year as we are a lower revenue team that needs to build through the farm. This is a good team. The FO believes in the players they have and think they can improve on what they did last year. I guess we will have to wait and see.

But wasn't he the runner up to the AL CY and his numbers just slightly off of Biebers? He isn't exactly scrub material. The Voting had him ahead of Garrett Cole. Yeah short season, I get it and he is known to wear down but still it looks to me that he ranks right up there with the top pitchers in the AL. He doesn't have to be the second best to be very valuable, but right now that appears to be his status.

He was the face of the team in some tough years. One of the few guys they had that was a difference maker. Guy had a heck of a career when he looks back. He was an All-Star and won a World Series he hit a ton of home runs. He really got to experience everything baseball has to offer and come out a winner. He was great in Minnesota and great for Minnesota I wish him well.

He was the face of the team in some tough years. One of the few guys they had that was adifference maker. Guy had a heck of a career when he looks back. He was and All-Star and won a World Series he hit a ton of home runs. He really got to experience everything baseball has to offer and come out a winner. He was great in Minnesota and great for Minnesota I wish him well.

Yeah I think they try to pass Garlic through. They honestly don't need another slow left fielder even if he is a righty. Nice for depth but not a need in my mind. Gibaut was with Tampa before being claimed by the Rangers so I am thinking the Twins don't think he will pass through waivers without Tampa grabbing him back. Scouting the stat line he was lights out at AAA in 2018. Fantastic K rate and WHIP, then in 2019 and 2020 it is like he suddenly lost control and was walking guys like crazy. If the Twins can fix him they might end up with an elite reliever on a waiver claim. That has to be the reason they are keeping him on the 40 man because he has looked pretty bad the last two years granted in a small sample size.

What a bunch of Debbie downers. This team plays division winning baseball and it's not good enough? It is as worse than the years they couldn't touch 500 baseball? I bet you all are the one's that said the 87 Twins were gonna be crap and couldn't even win the division. Its baseball, all kinds of crazy things are going to happen that no one predicted. Did you have the Rays beating the Yankee's and Houston and one game away from a world series last year? I know I didn't. The mighty Yankees with Cole etc got beat and they almost beat the loaded Dodgers. Sure there are flaws and weaknesses on this team but it is a good team. We also are close to getting an infusion of new young talent from the farm so in my mind things have never looked better for the future of this club. Put the negative thinking away and enjoy the season.

Fangraphs just did an awesome interview with Sabato. If you read it you might just change your mind about this guy. I can see why the Twins like him. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-prospect-aaron-sabato-on-mashing-and-hopefully-not-dhing/

One could argue they already manipulated Buxton's service time as he was injured and once healed they never brought him back as it would have impacted his service time. It looked pretty blatant at the time to me but I am sure it could have been justified if needed. They have plenty of reasons to start Kirilloff in the minors as they have Cave, Arraez and potentially Rooker in front of him right now and AK has yet to hit in AAA and there is always that pesky defense to work on, wink, wink. If he mashes in spring training or AAA then my guess is things change. It could get ugly if he has an elite spring training and they decide not to bring him up though. Even then like I said the Twins have legit reasons to keep him down so it still might not happen.

Jeffers has been underrated since he was drafted and looks poised to be a top of line catcher. So he would be my pick. Rooker might also be an underrated player but with so little info to go on it is hard to say. This will be big year for him as well. I am starting to lose faith in Rogers. Teams seem to have figured out his approach and aren't swinging at the balls he throws inside. He looked very hittable last year. He either needs better placement or a new wrinkle to keep hitters more off balance. Hopefully he find the mojo to get back to elite status.

While I can understand feeling like Cruz should be a wash the fact is he was a Free Agent. If the Twins were unable to sign him then he wouldn't be on the team and then whatever player they signed would be there instead of Cruz. The Twins chose to sign him instead of player X thus the inclusion. It is a bit misleading to not include him in the lose column as well but technically he wasn't lost. The only issue I see is that you cannot have more WAR just by resigning your own player back onto the team and that is what his calculation does. You can argue that having the same player doesn't make the team "better" but losing him certainly could have made the team worse. The better the team gets the harder it becomes to improve.

I liked the pick for the 5 tool potential but having the bat as the weakest link is always dangerous, because if the player can't hit the other 4 tools don't play as well. Honestly I don't feel like I can tell anything from his first year as he was so young and the sample so small. Lots of young guys struggle the first time in pro ball it is almost the norm not the exception. If the hit tool does come around there is a lot to dream on. Cavaco is fast enough to play short and if he needs to go to third base he will be a mobile third baseman. He has a canon arm so his defense should be above average. He needs to improve his eye at the plate and become a better hitter. We will know more after this year but he has time on his side for now.

Always been a big fan of Wiel. Kind of was hoping they would trade him to a club that could use 1st baseman type as I think he could make it. He doesn't have super star status but I think he could possibly be an average 1st baseman if given shot. Thing time is running out and while his numbers have been good at AAA they generally need to be great to get a chance. Maybe this is the year he makes sure a team notices him.

He fits the Twins hitter profile to a tee so I am not surprised they picked him there. While it will likely take him a couple of years 1st base and DH look pretty full right now for the Twins but they could always trade someone to make room if needed. I will be interested to see how he does against tougher pitching. I thought it was a good pick but after essentially 5 years of 1st round fairly slow footed power hitters in Kirillioff, Rooker, Larnach, Wallner and now Sabato it kind of felt like enough is enough. I know all those guys were drafted in the lower rounds as "value" power hitter picks but there were good pitchers in those areas as well and do we need that type of player in the first round every year? Anyway Sabato looks good as a hitter and as noted his bat will have to carry him as he is pretty much limited to 1st base and DH. It is his lack of defense that allowed him to fall to the Twins but the guy looks like another Twins masher and I hope he keeps his numbers in Torkelsons range because then he really would be a steal. The Twins were giddy he fell to them and they know far more about him than I do. Sabato looks like a guy who could have an elite bat and a power bat to boot so who am I to complain. Move over Bronx Bombers the Twins only draft Bomba bats so look out.

I agree with you but it seems like the Twins are more likely to give those type of players a shot than most teams. Especially if you are waivered or AAA hand picked reliever they definitely stand a chance. The thing is any player not on the 40 man roster has an incredibly up hill battle to climb to claim one of those spots. First you have to make almost no mistakes in spring training. You need to "stand out" in spring training and you have to convince the FO that you are better than the last man on the 40 man because they have to move someone off to move you on. Those are steep odds to overcome no matter what team you land on. Honestly I think most of these guys are just looking for a team that wants them and if they show enough in spring training or during the AAA season then maybe another team would be willing to grab them as an injury replacement or for depth. While the odds are long there are always a few Ryne Harpers out there who defy them, but they have to get on a team and try to make it happen first.

I am glad they brought in another veteran pitcher to compete for the 5th spot. Hopefully he grabs it and we have Dobnak etc. for depth because odds are one or more of the starters are going to need rest or get injured so we will need guys available to step up and step in. I assume this means Garlic is toast and headed for the waiver wire? hopefully he goes unclaimed and grows with the Twins, as this doesn't look like a minor league deal, so will need to make room on the 40 man.

I was thinking the same thing especially when they still had Wade on the roster but am starting to change my mind. The Twins used him primarily in right field when he came up and it makes me wonder if they see advantageous platoon splits there with Kepler? or maybe Kepler needed some days off or they liked Rosario's bat better and his fielding in left? I don't know but they used him there despite his below average defense there. He was a better defender in left in a very small sample size but still below average, but if he stays in the outfield he can flip a lefty bat to a righty. I like Tom's idea of using Rooker at 1st to spell Sano the best or if Sano is injured to step in and take over for a bit so he is versatile enough in the field to make him valuable as a limited utility player. If he makes the roster they could also platoon split left field with Rooker and Cave. I haven't looked at Cave's splits and maybe that isn't a problem but should help them load up on righties when going against lefties so he works out well for the team there as well. Twins are huge believers in Hard hit rate and he has it in spades his OPS has been pretty rock solid throughout the minors so the bat looks pretty good he just needs a spot in the field. The more I look into it the more I am beginning to think Tom is right. Unless Rooker regresses or isn't healed from the injury he has a solid chance to make the roster. I am not sure what the Twins plans are for Garlic who is an older version of Rooker with slightly diminished results. Rooker also was much better in MLB last year than Garlic. The Twins also have Kirilloff and Larnach in the wings so personally I don't really see the need unless they think they can pass him through waivers and have greater depth at AAA, but it seems like it would take an absolute disaster for them to need him or have room for him in the outfield. His numbers make him look like he could be a breakout candidate so maybe they think he can help or maybe they think they can flip him later in the year? Don't know but to me he doesn't look like a great fit right now. If I had to guess I would say he has a great Hard hit rate and they just couldn't resist adding another power bat for free,

With the pitch mix he has he looks good to be a starter. Max effort deliveries usually lead to TJ at some point though so definitely concerned. Every guy is different every build is different. He handled the workload in College with out issues so he must be doing something right. Guy looks like he could make it to AAA this year if he can stay healthy and live up to the hype. I gotta believe the Twins staff would know or try to tweak his delivery if they felt like it was dangerous or problematic but maybe you just can't know from one arm to the next what each pitcher can handle. He hasn't pitched much in MiLB ball so it is very hard to know where he is at but all signs point to him being a good to great pitcher moving forward. I sure hope he reaches his ceiling.

Good point bad math on my part I divided by AB instead of PA. Should have just went to Fangraphs I guess. 34% is in range you are correct. 30% is generally the goal to stay behind and he is not far from that at 34% and hopefully can improve it as well. So ignore that in my initial analysis.