Dman

It has got to be Gibaut or Waddell. They only need so many pitchers on the 40 man. My vote is Gibaut but might be wrong as I think he has a good slider as well but you guessed it control problems. HIs high WHIP is holding him back. I like Waddells line a little better but both of those guys could be AAAA players as their stuff hasn't played well at the higher levels. I guess we will know soon enough what the Twins think.

Thanks for the article. I was wondering how he walked so many guys and I guess now we know why. Appears to be over-throwing his fastball. Isn't this somewhat the same issue Poppen was having? He is going to need two pitches he can rely on to make it so hopefully the Twins can tame him somewhat. I have my doubts but the FO has made me look bad before so I will wait and see on this one.

Yeah unless Cave has a really good year I think they try and trade him next after they put Larnach on the 40 man. Hopefully Celestino has a good year and he can back up Buxton next year. Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach can be rotated in left and right maybe platoon Rooker with Kepler and that should be plenty of depth. The year after they will have to decide if they want to add Wallner so there is always going to be someone ready for the outfield or 1st base pretty much every year. I just don't think you want more than 6 outfielders on the 40 man though.

You could be right. The trade does appear to be a wash the more I look into it. I just like Wades odds better. He was never below an 800 OPS through AA. He did struggle in AAA (700 OPS) and MLB ( under 700 OPS avg.) so as the pitching got better he had a harder time making good contact. Having a good eye at the plate should help him though as he adjusts to the pitching at the higher levels. He hasn't had a ton of MLB at bats. His kryptonite though is power. He is OBP over power and likely always will be. In todays game that can be a liability that keeps him in the 4th outfielder position. Still I think he has a chance for greater impact than the pitcher we received in trade but that is just my opinion. Anderson who was a starter had OK numbers coming up but his K rate was never great. The higher the level the higher his hits allowed and WHIP so he gives up a lot of contact and knows it so tries to dance around the zone. He does appear to have an elite slider but right now it looks like he needs his fastball to improve as he is giving up too many hits and too many walks. Granted those numbers were better at the lower levels of MiLB ball but very concerning when it comes to MLB ball. He looks kind of like Poppen to me at this point although his slider is probably better. While the Twins did well with Harper and Wisler (in a shortened season) It seems there might be limits to what they can achieve with these types of players. Once teams figured out Harper he was far less effective and the Twins let Wisler walk for peanuts so they seem to understand the limits of what these guys bring. Harper had a decent K rate last year but his ERA was 7.61 with 1.61 WHIP. If he wasn't hitting with his breaking stuff guys waited for his fastball and that was that. Yeah his K percentage was decent but you need two good to very good pitches to make it. I am not sure Anderson has that. Relievers that make it have to have a pitch that they trust they can put in the zone and dare the batter to make solid contact. Right now the numbers don't show that to be the case. He was a starter though so he does have three pitches to work with so that might help. Can the Twins turn him around and make him better I think they can but I am not sure they can make these cast off types last for long. If they can help him find another gear and get the walks under control then I am happy to agree with you but I think that is a lot of ifs. I mean I think Colina and Chalmers likely have equal or better stuff than this guy. If they can't fix those guys how are they going to fix Anderson? I like Andersons potential I really do and I agree with you that there was no room for Wade. Carrying 7 outfielders on the 40 man was a burden so the Twins are better off this way. I just believe in Wade soo much and know more about him that I believe the Giants will get the better end of this deal in the end.

This is good take on the situation and I concur with your analysis. They were always going to need to trade Wade as he doesn't have the power the Twins crave and his batting average wasn't great. Yeah his OBP was good to great at times but he was always going to be 4th outfielder material IMO. Don't get me wrong the Giants get a very good player. A batter with a good eye and a tough out but he is flawed as well. This move frees up space for Larnach who needs to be added next year and they get a reliever with traits they like and have done well with in the past. I still think the Giants got the better deal but as others have noted it can be hard to get anything in trade for 4th outfielders and at least they got something for Wade instead of nothing. With Cave, Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach in the wings Wade was taking up 40 man space. Kudos to the FO again for at least getting something instead of nothing for a guy that just wasn't in a good spot to make this team. A relief pitcher with his stuff and options could come in pretty handy this year so personally I like this deal for the Twins as well.

Have to believe it would Ian Gibault or Brandon Wadell as they are both unproven arms that with help could be good pickups or they also could be AAAA players hard to say at this point but I think it would be one or both of them depending on how things shake out. Twins 40 man I think you would be hard pressed to give up on anyone else. Maybe Austudillo given they have Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt on the 40 man and another in AAA who could fill in if necessary. I would say the light hitting Gordon as well but we do not have a dearth of middle infield help in the system so they might like him for utility role. Almost anyone else you would want to work a trade and not just cut.

Hard to believe I am saying this but Jimmy P. is stepping up and giving the team a chance. Baseball is fickle and things have to go right to get where we want to go but I am happy he is digging deep to get it done for a change. It was a loooong rebuild to get back to this point with many years being more excited about the farm than the actual club. We all suffered through that so I am glad he isn't selling the team short. No guarantee that spending money gets you where you want to be but it sure can help. After the Cruz signing I figured they were done. After the Colome signing I assumed it would only be minor league signings so it is interesting to hear that they are ready to pull the Trigger and make more moves. While I wouldn't mind a few more vets I am wondering who they plan to bump off the 40 man when they do make those moves.

The 40 man is now full. If they want to add more they will have to subtract first. Do you think they would let go of Gibaut or Waddell to add Clippard or try for one of the starters on a one year deal or are they done now and rolling with what they have? I am not sure what to think of Colome as I usually like to see guys with high K rates but it looks like he is guy who gets the job done. Price seems about right so not complaining there. I still think one of the young guys they have in AA or AAA might be able to come up and help this year if needed so they should be in pretty good shape.

And keep in mind Arraez has had knee problems so they can protect him if needed by having other players pitch in. I think getting Arraez more rest will be beneficial to keeping him healthy so I think this is a good strategy all the way around.

Totally agree with this. In the years we didn't stand a chance I was OK with where they had payroll at. Now we have a decent team, a team that could get hot and win it all. Need to open it up and give this team the most opportunity we can for success. Another starter would help. I hope they get someone for that last 40 man spot.

I am happy with that deal. It is right in the ballpark or what I hoped they could get him for. I presume this will be the last year we have him as they will likely open the DH for the NL next year and we might get priced out or he falls off a cliff and nobody wants him. I am not too worried if Cruz gets hurt as the Twins have a decent backup plan of rotating guys through the DH spot so this is pretty much a win, win IMO. I am a little worried about starting pitching as there will be injuries but I guess the Twins feel OK with the Thorpe\Smeltzer combo if too many guys go down. Here is hoping for another move or two to help with pitching.

I think those are good points we definitely could get priced out on Cruz. I don't think the FO wants to spend much more than they have in the past for Cruz. Cruz isn't getting younger so I can see why he wants a two year deal. It was a two year deal that brought him to the Twins granted one was an option year. Not sure what the bidding for Odo is but I find it doubtful that they would bring him back on a three year deal. He always has trouble the third time through the order and last year was injured and he isn't exactly young for a pitcher either. I think they get priced out there as well. Ozuna just doesn't make sense given all the slow plodding hitters the Twins have currently and stacked in the system. I don't see them going bullpen unless it is a lower priced one year deal as they have Colina and Chalmers pretty much ready to go and they I think they need to keep Gibaut and Waddell on the 40 man as well so they have options. Ober would likely be used in relief as well so I don't see them being too worried when it comes to relief. Paxton and Walker seem like possibilities if they come with one year deals. Next year Twins might need to bring up Canterino, Duran and Balazovic so might need a spot or two next year anyway. Also they could pitch in relief for the big club if absolutely needed. With the exception of Cruz I think it is bargain time or they are done. They will roll with what they have.

Really nice write up. Balanced with good and bad. Particularly enjoyed the Enlow and Cavaco write ups. I like where you placed Cavaco as well. There are too many unknowns to have him in the top 10 IMO. His bat and pitch recognition don't appear to have ever been strong and that can spell doom for many prospects. He obviously is gifted physically and if he could manage to be a five tool player he will have been a steal in that spot. Personally I think he sells out for power and ends up at third but a guy can dream. There is a fairly decent chance the bat never comes around ala Corey Ray of the Brewers. Loved the write up on Sabato and agree. The Twins don't seem to care about physical attributes as long as a strong hit tool profile is there. That philosophy probably makes sense until your farm system is full of guys like that. In a vacuum that pick makes sense but given we have a fleet of slow footed hitters there is a point where picks like that make less sense. They could focus on pitching in the higher rounds at least one year every five or so. I like what you wrote and my board would be similar. Might have Cantarino a little higher given all the helium but he fine where you have him as well. Thanks for sharing!

All I know is that the Twins weren't quite good enough without Cruz to win the division and with Cruz they have. When he is on there is no one on the Twins who has a bat close to as good as Nelson. At 40 if injured he won't help much but I think they should sign him until he actually does decline. We can always rotate players through that spot if Nelson is struggling, but if Nelson is gone we can't get him back.

Not excited to face Rosario multiple times per year I think the Indians got a good deal there but he does have his flaws. We'll see how well he handles this coming year.

Yep Arraez never made a top 100 list and now other teams drool over the prospect of finding a way to get him on their team. It just shows the limitations of top100 lists as there are players that break all the rules and become great despite their supposed limited potential.

Yeah 7 years is a long time to control a player. Granted the first year or two is generally an adjustment to MLB but 7 years plus all the minors work is a long time to control a player. I know it was done for small market teams but the young player are being robbed of some the most marketable years of their careers. I think there has to be a change at least 6 years max not 7.

I don't disagree but he isn't seen as a top prospect on any boards. Technically he shouldn't be dismissed but it seems most all sites see his age as a problem and in essence he seems to have become a non prospect with prospect status. His K rate is often cited as a concern as well an issues recognizing breaking balls. While it is a SSS given how well he did when he came up it all seems a bit overblown. He is simply likely seeing the Arreaz affect. Deemed to have too many physical defects (slow, below average arm, likely below average defense) to be a good prospect only to become a good or great MLB player.

Thanks for this! Seems a bit harsh though. Law thinks he literally has no power pull side? Seems pretty negative to me but I am guessing there is data behind it. Despite this apparent fatal flaw he was still a better batter than most everyone else in the FSL? Sorry Keith not buying what you are selling just yet. The athlete part we already knew as that is why Larnach dropped as far as he did and signed for less than slot. At best he ends up average for defense which is in line with what I had been hearing. So with no defensive upside the bat has to be special and Law thinks it won't be special enough thus the drop. It is a reason and most of us on this board wonder why the Twins are so fascinated with 1st base\Left field lumbering players. Well it is something for Larnach to work on. We should know more after this year.

Technically you are right it doesn't matter. Larnach is going to make it to MLB no matter what Law thinks and being in the top 100 doesn't really mean anything. It is just that Law is a respected voice and it seems odd for him to diminish what Larnach has done and keep him off the top 100. It is surprising so I think we are all interested in what his reasoning is. He is in line with every other prospect in Minnesota's system except Larnach, why? For me someone who follows prospects it doesn't make sense. Maybe he has some good reasons. Maybe Larnach is 101 on his list. Maybe he just likes some other players potential more after all after the top 10 to 20 it often comes down to preference. If I had to guess I think he feels Larnach's potential is tapped out right now at that 800 OPS mark and he see's a good player but not a great one but I am curious as to why he feels that way. Aren't you?

Yeah you go back and look at their stats and they both did well but until 2019 Kirilloff is the hands down winner. Kirilloff had an amazing 2018 with a 999 OPS in A ball and 943 OPS in A+. While Larnachs numbers are nothing to sneeze at he was 100 points lower at those two levels with an 878 OPS in A ball and an 843 in high A and I believe he was older than Kirilloff when hitting at those levels. 100 points of OPS is pretty significant and IIRC there was an article talking about opposing teams having their pitchers try to throw more breaking stuff to Kirilloff and trying to trip him up in certain counts because they couldn't get him out. I think that was when he was in A ball with that 999 OPS. So he was feared by other teams not sure Larnach has that kind of reputation. So maybe that is why Law see's his bat as so special. The thing is that 2019 while at High A there didn't appear to be a better hitter in that entire league than Larnach so that is nothing to sneeze at. He took home league MVP honors so his bat was better than a lot of other players. While I might not have them back to back I still think Larnach deserves the top 100 and he is there in the MLB top 100 at number 80. I guess Law doesn't see superstar there. Maybe he is too vanilla for him. I think in the end he will wish he had a do over on this one though.

Law will be wrong about Larnach. Larnach was the Florida State leagues MVP a League notoriously hard for hitters and good for pitchers. He might not be great defensively as I haven't seen or heard much about his defense but he is going to hit and he wouldn't be the Twins third ranked prospect if he "wasn't that good". It's either an oversight or a bias Law has for Larnach. FWIW fans always over hype their own prospects because they generally are the only ones they follow or know much about. Law can be ruthlessly objective and not swayed by industry opinion as his lists are often quite different from others. He is not always right and he generally has good insight into why he ranks players where he does. Sometimes he is right, sometimes wrong. Prospects change as they move up levels. Some bust and some that were oversights make it. Potential is not an exact science.

Thanks for doing the honorable mentions as it is nice to see who was close to making the list. FWIW I agree with most of those. I like where you put Solarie as a fair number of analysts were not sure the bat would translate and at best he would be an average defender in Left or second base. I think he is too high on the other lists but maybe he will prove me wrong I know Jeffers did. While I agree with what you said about Windor and he placed about the same on MLB's prospect list I think you might be short selling him. Lot's of reports of improved velocity and a legitimate change up. I think he OK at this level but there is reason to bump him up as well. I think you have Andrade placed about right but many analysts see him moving over to third and he has the power stroke to be fine there. Nice list I like it.

I am surprised he has Lewis that low. I guess everybody is down on his hit tool. I bet if Balazovic had pitched more innings he would be even higher on the list. Law never gave any love to Rooker as he felt he was too old to be a real prospect IIRC. He also was the low man on Larnach as well. Fangraphs is the big believer in Larnach. I think Law will be proven wrong there though. He was also low on Berrios not coming around until much later than other boards. He was one of the only guys to come out low on Gonsalves early and it appears he was right on that one. He always has an interesting take and is willing to step outside the box on players which is refreshing.

If they are not picking someone else up then they will have to depend on the young arms to be productive because injuries happen to pitchers all the time. Thorpe and Smeltzer did not look ready last year and Duran and Balazovic are likely on innings limits this year so if the Twins do have injuries we could be in trouble. Hopefully they can bring in one more vet just in case. I am guessing the reason for one year deals is they plan to use Duran, Balazovich and or Canterino next year? Pineda and Happ could be gone next year and we don't know how Randy will do with a full season so there will most likely be plenty of room.