Dman

I can agree with many of the things you said but the development piece just doesn't ring true for me. The Twins of the last ten years had a lot of trouble and I mean a lot of trouble developing pitchers. From FA's to trades to draft pick failures to guys like Liriano and Worely who suddenly got back on track with the Pirates. The Twins never did much to develop a pitching staff. I guess there was some success with Berrios and Gibson but that's about it over the last ten years or so. They never traded for a pitcher as good as Odo and never had a good FA pitcher signing unless you want to include the one good year of Phil Hughes. They didn't really do much better developing bullpen arms. If you look back pitcher development looks like a black hole IMO. (Edit-Oops forgot about Santana as a FA signing that was a good one.) With the new front office suddenly bullpen pitchers that were doing OK are starting to look elite I am looking at Rogers, Duffy, May, Littel, Stashak, even Harper who they got rid of after they helped him ride his best pitch to success. Nobodys like Dobnak, Smeltzer and Poppen are suddenly viable arms and in the minors I have never been more excited bout the pitching prospects we have down on the farm. It seems like they are getting every ounce out of every arm adding velocity and focusing on secondaries that work best for that specific pitcher. I never saw anything like it ever with the old staff, ever. As far as the coaches they have hired to help develop the players I have never seen the Twins coaching staff raided as badly as this year. In fact when has anyone raided our coaching staff in the past? I mean even the Yankees went out and grabbed our catching coordinator. The Yankees. Think about that for a minute. This FO has only been going at this for three years and while I agree they were given a lot of talent to get started they maximized that talent into the second best season in Twins history. I fail to see how that makes them bad at player development or even the same as the old group. The old group never approached a season like last year. Yeah they didn't pick some of the players but IMO these players wouldn't be as successful without the coaching and tools this FO gave them. I could go on and on about the changes but my main point has been made. This FO is light years ahead when it comes to development. It really isn't even close if you are willing to look at it objectively.

You have good number of our very best prospects so am happy you will have have a photo blog. I will be following all the players in AA very Closely this year.

Wave two is on its way to the big club. AA is stacked with high end talent and there are some AAA pitchers waiting in the wings for opportunities. I am hoping that within that AA pitching group of Balazovic, Duran, Sands, Colina and maybe Ober that they have the stuff to be impact pitchers. We still need starters and having cheap controllable ones would be even more beneficial for this club as they try to optimize their financial commitments. Very excited about this years top 20. After some wave two graduations though it looks like the farm might take a dip in the rankings. Hopefully they manage to draft and develop well.

Numbers, numbers, numbers. I guess those cold hard numbers rule the world. I know I follow them when evaluating players. I guess the thing I always wonder about is can the numbers really see a breakout happening. It seems like human evaluation would be better able to see a player breaking out before the numbers do. At any rate this was an eye opening article as the numbers had prospects in a very different order than the experts. With the added WAR calc we get to see that ZIPS (just following the cold hard numbers) does not get as deluded or caught up in potential as does human evaluation. I am, however going to spit in ZIPS eye and say that they still can't predict at draft time who will be a successful MLB baseball player. There I said it numbers have their limits.

There is a lot up in the air about how things will shake out for Kirilloff and Larnach and the 26 man. The good news is no tough decisions need to be made until the end of this year when Kirilloff needs to be added to the 40 man. Even then he wouldn't "need" to replace Rosario on the 40 man he could replace Cave or Wade. If Kirilloff and Larnach have outstanding years this year there are two wild card players that would determine whether there is room on the 26 man roster or not. Those players are Rosario and Cruz. If Rosario has a good year this year improves his eye at the plate just a little then I think the Twins will keep him another year. If they do keep him another year then that is one less spot open. Same for Cruz if he has yet another season even close to what he did last year then I think the Twins resign him so again no room. All that means is Alex might have to sit one more year at AAA and or wait for injury to get his chance. Not a huge deal IMO. The Twins won't keep Rosario beyond his last year of arbitration even if he is a better option because they will want the financial saving they can get by starting Kirilloff or Larnach in that spot. If Cruz and Rosario tank this year then then there is plenty of room and opportunity for Kirilloff and Larnach to make the 26 man. The one other sticky wicket is Rooker. Would he be a Platoon bat for Left Field and first base? Even after Cruz and Rosario eventually move on there doesn't appear to be room for all three. Even if you move Sano to DH there is only 1st base and left field open. Maybe they rotate guys around to give them enough at bats or else they will need to find a trading partner to better allocate resources. Until Kirilloff and Larnach start dominating AAA I don't see a problem though as there is room on 40 man for them without impacting the 26 man. We will have to wait and see how this year plays out before needing to worry about future decisions.

I go back and forth on this issue. In the end I still think I go with the vets. Wins are as important early in the season as they are late in the season. With vets you have a slightly better idea of how they will perform. The small sample sizes for the young guys makes me a little nervous. I say give them some time at AAA to make sure they have their stuff together and once proven then the vets can be on a shorter leash. Depth is never a bad thing just ask Cleveland. Still I would start with the season with the guys who have been there and done that before. Use the young guys if injuries happen or they are just killing it in AAA that you just have to bring them up.

I am with you on Holland and Julien. I mean Holland was slated as a late 1st round draft pick. Good speed, but his hit tool went missing. I know having a suspect hit tool is a big risk but getting a guy like that in the 5th round I think is worth the risk. If the hit tool picks up (not likely) he could be a 5 tool player. I don't expect him to get off to a great start in cold Cedar Rapids but if he heats up with the weather that could end up being a really good pick. Julien is also an intriguing bat and he fits right in with the Twins philosophy of grabbing guys that hit the ball hard. He was a name that was in the top 200 and we got him in the 18th round. Again that is an incredible value for the risk. Granted the Twins had to find another $400,000 to sign him but likely money well spent even he does project as a DH. I will be watching both of those guys closely to see if we got a little lucky for a change.

I didn't like the Cavaceo signing mainly because his hit tool was very suspect. I have seen too many 5 tool players with suspect hit tools fail. Sometimes they make it as defensive first players but they never make much of a dent offensively. While Wallner has lots of power his hit tool is slightly below average as well and I would have preferred they take a pitcher in that spot but they didn't. Why take guys with less than desirable hit tools that early? I really like it when they pick guys like Larnach and Kirilloff. Guys that have good hit tools from the get go. There is much less risk involved in them making it all the way to MLB. So why the change in philosophy? After seeing the FO's preference for guys who hit the ball hard I started looking more at Exit velocity and hard hit rate. Turns out hard hit rate gives the batter a distinct advantage over the pitcher and the defense. The stats below show why hard hit appears to be so important to our new FO. Batting average improves dramatically as does slugging when you hit the ball hard. Hard-hit balls .524 BA, 1.047 SLG, .653 wOBA Weakly hit balls .219 BA, .259 SLG, .206 wOBA Short story long I guess that is why the FO is so enamored with guys with powerful swings. Even if they miss the ball more, when they do hit it, very good things happen. How much average can you be willing to sacrifice for slugging? I don't know the answer but I would guess instead of guy who hit around 300 you could have a guy hit around 250 with a good hard hit rate and you might still come out ahead. These guys still need to have a decent eye at the plate or they will never make it but some of that can be taught. There is still launch angle and the ability to barrel balls to consider as well but a powerful swing is the catalyst required to make it all work. I am still struggling with the new philosophy and only time will tell if the guys they are picking can hit and lay off pitches enough to succeed, but I think that is the direction they are going whether I like it or not. Hard hit rate is not the be all end all either as guys with good average and OBP can be almost as valuable but those players are rare as well and getting someone who can put it all together ala Mookie Betts or Mike trout is even more rare. Here's to hoping the guys they picked work out.

It is a little early to have any idea who it makes the most sense to keep as this years performance will factor heavily into who is retained or not, but for the sake of guessing here goes. If there is one player I would not bet against it is Cruz. If he stays healthy he will be productive. The key is to keep him healthy. Short of a major decline they will resign Cruz next year. May is a tough call. If he has another really good year I am guessing they would try to keep him if the price is not outrageous. If he falters then I think they cut ties as there are cheaper options on the way and we will likely need the 40 man room. I would love to have Odo back but at the 20M or more salary for 4 or 5 years not sure the Twins will take that bet. I think they let him walk and Hopefully Duran or a cheaper option is available for that spot. I think no matter how good or bad Bailey is he is gone after this year. His age and the fact we have younger options available to fill that spot makes his return very unlikely. Same thing for Hill if he pitches well I think some other team will be willing to pay more than we will if he can't pitch then likely time to cut ties anyway. I don't see them bringing Marwin back. His flexibility is nice to have but I think our roster is deep enough with several guys that can play multiple positions that I don't think he will be brought back. There is no way the Twins will resign all those guys. I think they are most comfortable hanging around the 130M mark but stretched themselves this year with Odo and the Donaldson signing. Then they ran into the Maeda deal and looked to recoup some money to help cover the signing. They will likely need\want to drop down some next year. I count up to 15 guys that might need to be added to the 40 man next year granted not all of them will play themselves into a 40 man spot but there is only room for about 6 guys tops that I can see right now so there will be some tough decisions to make next year. There are also tow players that the Twins could be tempted to add early in Larnach and Jeffers. So that will make bringing some of these players back even more difficult. Nice to have wave 2 hitting just as we are starting to contend but tough decision lie ahead.

Hey any chance you can enlighten me on exit velocity? I understand the importance as it allows for more chances for hits and home runs but is it more important than the hit tool itself? It seems like the Twins seem to think so to a greater degree than I had originally thought. Is the thinking who cares if you hit 240 or 250 if your slugging is higher then the odds are better for scoring runs? I think I might be behind the times here. Camargo's raw power at 65 is a number I have rarely seen that is Rooker level power. So the thinking is he will likely get better at the plate and since he has the raw power already that makes him MLB ready? I am not sure I follow the logic yet. It seems that without a good hit tool you can't get a good outcome in OPS because you create too many outs. The Twins always seem to be seeking guys with good raw power numbers do they feel they can train these guys well enough to get the hit tool to an acceptable level to make the power work? That is all I can come up with for Camargo. He is young and swings a heavy bat. Let's hope he can take walks and hit the ball once in a while.

I have never been a part of a FO so likely don't understand how these deals go down. I am a fan that loves the players I follow and probably values them a little bit too highly. Reading the tea leaves on this one though the Dodgers technically have someone that can do what Raley does in Garlick and they were willing to designate him for Raley so they must see something in Raley that they like long term to add him to their 40 man. I just thought the Twins could get more for Raley than a Camargo type prospect, but maybe that is easier said than done. You are right though I am looking at this in a vacuum. Maybe part of getting the Maeda deal done is Raley and the draft pick with Raley's value over Camargo translated into a little more cash. Hard to say not knowing what was discussed so looking at it as Raley for Camargo is all wrong. I just didn't care for the return that MN got back as a prospect. That doesn't mean I am right, as putting the stat line ahead of everything doesn't always work. I hope Jair finds his stroke and makes me look like a fool. I have never seen him play so have very little idea of what he can do. It's just not a return that is easy for me to see the positives and get behind.

Totally agree that he comes off as annoying and childish. I guess that can be how passion manifests itself but if he just used facts and a well thought out plan he would be more convincing.

Totally agree. With Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Graterol, Thrope, Arraez etc. Seems like they have a better hit rate than most clubs.

It is just hard to get excited about Camargo and his recent 642 OPS. Guy seems to have some serious holes in his swing. He can sting the ball like a major league player right now but if he rarely hits it then he'll never make it. Yeah he is only 20 and from what I understand he started the year out hot so maybe an injury dropped his performance but looking back at his stats this kind of feels like who he is. Also his defense at catcher isn't great either. Guy looks like a reclamation project and he is Rule V eligible this next year so lets say he does have a great year then they have to worry about protecting him right away. I fail to see the awesome upside. Raley on the other hand is essentially ready to contribute right now. Granted he has his warts especially OBP but he looks like a near lock to contribute at the MLB level in some manner. There is still risk that he could end up AAAA but I think he will turn out. I don't see star potential there but at least 4th outfielder potential. I get that given the players in our system there is no spot for Raley and freeing up that 40 man spot has value for us as there will be interesting guys that get cut after spring training but to me it feels like Raley is more likely to make it to MLB than Camargo. To your point though the guys that do this for a living seem to see pretty equal value for these guys from a prospect perspective. I think FanGraphs had both of them at 35+ FV so those that felt that was the swap might be correct. Being a Stat\numbers watcher Camargo feels more like a throw in than someone to dream on. But hey what do I know I thought Jeffers was a horrible draft pick too. All I am saying is that right now today it is hard to get excited about the guy so I can see why people are overlooking him.

Totally agree with you. My kids don't watch TV there are too many commercials and they don't want to wait for what they watch they will go out and find it on You tube, or Netflix or amazon etc.. They hangout on Facebook and Twitter and like to do snapchat. TV is not really a part of their life it is for old people. The times they are a change-in you can ignore it if you want but then you go the way of the Blackberry or horse and buggy at some point you are no longer relevant.

It is likely an oxymoron but in my mind it could be someone at AA or AAA who has a few above average tools and a good production record as they climbed the system. It could also be a young player in A ball with several above average tools that projects well and isn't subject to Rule V right away. There are many ways you could you slice it but those are a couple of ways. Prospect by definition probably can't be "solid" because we all know so many of them fail to make it or make much of a difference in MLB. I think it is short hand for looking for guys with good to great upside, IMO.

I think he makes some good points. Baseball doesn't market itself where young people hangout and can get involved like Twitter among other sources. I think he is right that it likely is short sighted that the pay for content might make money now but by not keeping it open and engaging the younger generation then over time their fan-base will be gone. While I get his frustration with baseballs proposed rules changes and specifically the playoff changes I don't think they will be damaging to the game either. I guess his point is those changes won't help engage young fans because they are not hanging out on MLB.com but checking out Tweets, about flashy plays, and what players are saying etc. The changes baseball is making won't help them connect to the younger generation and I think he has a point. None of my kids are interested in baseball or follow it or talk about. They all watch and follow football and even keep up with hockey some. Heck they even follow soccer more than baseball. I am not sure what the answers are but I do think Bauer has some interesting points. Right now there are still plenty of baseball fans but I think as time goes by in the next ten years or so if things don't change they literally might have trouble filling seats.

That is a good point. If a team has a losing record I fail to see how they deserve to be in playoffs I think at minimum a winning record should be required. If only 6 teams with a winning record then whoever would have faced team 7 gets a bye. You just can't have a losing record an be in the playoffs. Totally defeats the purpose.

Yeah I see Fangraphs has him at 37 on the List of 42 for the Twins. They have 65 for the raw power score which I have rarely seen especially for a 20 year old but there are plate discipline concerns as well as hit tool concerns. I guess if he can turn a few things around then he is a legit prospect but his 650 OPS last year doesn't have me overly convinced. Scouts know more than me and they like this guys upside. I have eaten a lot of crow recently. Have to wait and see I guess.

I like that they are Ballsy enough to put Larnach over Kirilloff. I think they are right though. The extra plate discipline Larnach has should help him be more successful when he makes the jump. Larnach has plenty of power too and a good hit tool. I really like both of them and am looking forward to see how well they perform this year. Duran keeps moving up with Balazovic not far behind. Things are finally looking up on the pitching front. I am surprised they dropped Graterol out of the 100 altogether but I guess this Boston thing has everyone up in the air on his final projection.

Yeah I know I have been eating a lot of it recently. Hoping to go vegetarian but I have so much crow to eat that might be a while.

So your telling me no one gets excited when their team gets in as a wild card? and that that 2014 Royals A's match up was so boring you fell a sleep and having the Royals make a run for the title was so very nauseating that you wish it had never happened? OK how about Washington last year? That was terrible to watch too I suppose? I think the reason they are willing to expand the playoffs is that they have already proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the wild card has brought more drama and excitement that they are willing to double down on the idea. It should keep fan excitement higher for more teams as they won't be eliminated from playoff contention as early. I don't care how people spin it the playoffs are exciting pretty much no matter who plays and if the under dog wins a game or a series it is even more exciting (i.e. see NFL and NCAA Basketball for reference). If you want to go with the dilution theory then I ask if the other teams are so good how could they lose to a supposedly inferior team. Personally I think this is more fear of change talk than anything else. Has the current wild card system hurt the playoffs or baseball? if not I fail to see how expanding a little more would do more damage.

While I agree Raley was expendable for Minnesota and evens out the trade for LA I still don't see why they needed to sell the 2nd round pick. When you look at the Dodgers system they don't have a ton MLB ready outfielder prospects and if they do decide to trade Joc Pederson Raley looks like someone who could slot into that spot and do a decent job. Probably not a 900 OPS but maybe close to 800 if platooned. I know they just designated an outfielder Garlick with decent numbers and he is a righty which I thought they needed but he is older and maybe he is out of options so they like Raley better because they can move him up and down and figure to get similar production for less money. Not sure what the motivation is but can see the value he gives the Dodgers. That seems like more than enough to get the trade done from my perspective but knowing Friedman and how he operates maybe it just wasn't quite enough and sweetener was buying the pick. He loves the draft and that extra money should help them make some moves they wouldn't have been able to make. I don't see how Camargo equates to Raley. He is already rule V eligible and his OPS has been pretty pathetic to this point. All of the catchers we currently have in A ball performed better offensively than he did last year. While he is only 20 there seems like very little upside there unless this next year is a breakout we have tons of guys like him in the system already. You might as well call Camargo our 2nd round draft choice this year because to me that is what he is but even worse he is already rule V eligible where a draft pick would have at least 4 years left. Camargo was a throw in lottery ticket to help our FO not look so bad nothing more nothing less. One the Dodgers didn't really have a use for anyway. Maybe the value of Graterol changed through the process and the Dodgers just wanted more to mitigate the risk but to me it sure looks like they got one heck of deal from the Twins. Two players that are essentially ready for MLB with 6 years of control and Graterol could be an All-Star player down the road. Not to mention the extra pick they get in a pitcher heavy draft. If you ask me they picked our pocket here.

Was excited when the Twins got him in the trade and am still excited about Duran. The K9 has always been there. His FIP and XFIP are better than his ERA so no regression worries. He is who he is which is a very good pitcher. Like others have said if can be just a bit more consistent on the delivery this guy looks like a stud. He looks like someone that can make me forget about Escobar.

Yeah scouting his stat line I was not impressed with Camargo. I know he was young for the level but the 642 OPS seemed pretty brutal to me. Both of our best catchers are at AA. We currently have three catchers slated for A ball in Villalobos, Salva and Isola. All of them have a better OPS than Camargo so I am not sure how he fits into our system either. He is younger than all three by at least a year but it will be interesting to see where they put him this year. Thanks very much for the additional information on Camargo. Makes me feel a little bit better about having him thrown in but he has his work cut out for him to find playing time in the Twins system as well.