Dman

This from MLB.com "Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick." https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained-c259650658

I had read earlier that comp B picks were protected but then looked online and it appears that the third highest pick regardless is the one that gets taken which kind of makes more sense to me. So based on what I read we lose the comp B pick for signing the bringer of rain. "Signing Donaldson, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves, will cost the Twins their third-highest pick in the 2020. That’s their Competitive Balance Round B selection — currently slotted to come in at No. 73 overall. The Braves, conversely, will receive a compensatory selection between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the beginning of Round 3. Coincidentally, the comp pick they’ll receive will land in the exact same range as the pick that Minnesota is surrendering."

I tend to agree. I think this rotation is likely better if all the pitchers stay relatively healthy and or one of the young guys emerges. It's just that it is a plan with a fair bit of risk built in and I think that has all of us a bit on edge. Also looking at the Yankee's rotation is a bit intimidating but they might have injuries as well you never know. I am sure the FO will explore what is out there and gauge the price but I think they will ultimately decide to wait until the deadline to take the plunge. They will have a lot more information about how the team is doing at that point and they will know what the true weaknesses and strengths of the team is. They will also know what players have been performing well and are still healthy at the deadline as well.

That is decent velocity then. I don't know why but I see Smeltzer more as a number 5 guy. Maybe he can prove me wrong. Not sure what to think about Dobnak just can't argue with the results he has had so far.

Sure the Twins could use another top of the rotation starter all teams could. I think the questions should be do we have that top of the rotation starter in the system ready for this year? Thorpe and Dbnak seem to the only two that appear to have innings and stuff to make it the whole year so you would be depending on them to step into that role. I just don't know enough about Poppen to know if he has top of the rotation stuff or not. Graterol and Duran might have ace type stuff but they don't have the innings to last through the year. If I remember correctly Dobank isn't that hard of a thrower and his K9 isn't real high so the odss of him being better than number 4 seem remote but his results so far seem to defy that theory at least so far. Other than the playoff game he has a very nice ERA and WHIP so maybe if you squint he can be a three. Thorpe appears to have the stuff the K9 needed to be an ace but he has been quite hittable and given a few too many free passes in his SSS of work. He might make it to a number three but again seems a stretch. So I am not sure if we have guys that are better than Berrios, Pineda and Odo in the system but I guess we won't know until we see what those guys can do. I do agree with Seth that if they trade for someone it needs to be a pitcher as good or better than our top three guys. If they can find that guy for the right price this offseason I am all for it, but I am also fine seeing what we have and waiting for teams to realize they are out of it and need to make a trade. Maybe just maybe we get lucky like Cleveland and find two very good home grown pitchers that help us through the playoffs.

Gray and Ray are intriguing but we don't really know that either are available at this time. Those teams would likely like to see if their team gels and can compete until the end of the season so it would take a major, major overpay to get those guys. I doubt either one is worth it. Same goes for Boyd and that is an in division trade and I just don't trust what pitcher Boyd is at this time seems like a terrible risk to take to me. Personally I think the young guys we have are as good as the entire Marlins pitching staff and Musgrove. I know it is a small sample size but Smeltzer's stats look eerily similar to Alcantara's and Musgroves. Would those guys really be upgrades? Again small sample size but Dobnaks's 1.59 Era and 1.13 WHIP beats every pitcher named so far. Granted he doesn't have the K9 of Gray or Ray but it sure looks like his stuff might play as well as any of the other guys mentioned. Honestly the only guy on this list I would consider is Gray. He might move the needle for this staff but here's the thing between Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Graterol and Duran we might have the impact pitching we need right in our own system. Again I know small sample size but it is all I have, Smeltzer pitched as well as anyone on the Marlins staff and his stats look better than most of the guys on this list. I think Thorpe will improve he has the stuff he just needs some time to settle in IMO. Dobnak is a bit of wild card as I just don't understand how he gets the results he does but he could be one of those guys that could be a pseudo ace in the making. Graterol likely can't pitch in the rotation the whole year but could give us the jump start we need until all the vets are up and running. Same could be true for Duran if Graterol isn't up to the task. The other wild card is Poppen who had good enough stuff to get added to the 40 man so if he catches fire then there is another arm to see if he has that IT factor. Just like we thought we needed arms in the pen last year the FO believed in the guys they had and although it was a bumpy ride it worked out. This year I think they ride with the young starting pitchers and see what they have. If it all breaks down and they all stink or get hurt then sure trade for what you need. Until then though I would ride with what we have unless you can grab a true difference maker that would be better than what you already potentially have.

I think you are probably right but I wouldn't be surprised if Sano played third on occasion. I do, however, think keeping him at first as much as possible makes the most sense. For one he isn't a great defender at third and two I feel like there is greater potential to get injured there as well. I think getting him to first came just in time and I hope he likes it there and plays really well.

I agree to a degree but there probably is still room if you stare hard enough. Unless Lewis's bat really takes off he could be three years out and by then Donaldson could be moved to DH. In an effort to keep salary down the Twins will probably let Rosario go in two years and Larnach will be ready to take over. Kirilloff is a bit tougher but he could rotate as first baseman, Left fielder and DH until the Twins decide if Sano is worth the big bucks or not. SO really there could be room for all of them potentially. I think there will be more clarity on trading later in the year. The Twins have outfiled prospects at the lower levels and if Celestino, Badoo, Pearson and Wallner perform well then they might look to trade Kirillof or Larnach or both for pitching if they feel it is needed.

Most teams aren't looking to unload [pitching in the off-season unless they get a huge overpay. As others suggested Rosario probably doesn't fit well for most teams. The Marlins seem to be the only ones interested in him probably because Rowson knows what Eddie can bring but I am not sure the Marlins have what we need to move the needle on starting pitching. The other thing is I think Rosario provides more value to the Twins than any other team. While i am not as high on Rosario as some I still think he is an important part of this team this year. I still want to see if he can control that swing and take some walks. He is a wild card up there so pitchers have to be careful. If Kirilloff or Larnach look ready then maybe they do something with Eddie next year. If Eddie has an All_Star year then let's ride with him next year as well. I think keeping makes the most sense right now.

Agreed. I just think Harper is better than people on this site give him credit for. I think he would be gone for good if they release him. It won't impact the Twins that much but there is a reason the front office left him on the roster and he lasted this long and that is they do see value in keeping him if there is room.

Matt McGill, Mike Morin and Blake Parker say HI. We let them go and they were picked up right away. I think the same will happen with Harper. Id agree though that Harper and Wisler are the choices. They have plenty of guys in the pipeline to take over those roles if needed IMO.

Personally I would get rid of Wisler as he is a player they have to keep on the 25 man so if he struggles they will have to release him as they can not send him down. I know everyone is down on Harper but his numbers are not as bad as a lot of relievers on other teams which is likely why the Twins have kept him as long as they have. Granted I get nervous when he pitches and don't love him in the pen but hopefully they can get something for him rather than just dumping him. He still has options so can go up and down if his stuff does back up and for context his numbers were better than Wislers last year. I guess we will know what they decide in the next week or so.

According to MLB trade rumors both players are signed already. so they are already on the 40 man. "the Twins faced some long weeks of rumors and missed targets before eventually landing a pair of veterans. Homer Bailey and Rich Hill each signed one-year contracts with Minnesota on the same day, with Bailey earning $7MM in guaranteed money and Hill pulling in $3MM guaranteed (with hefty incentives). Bailey got his career on track with a solid 2019 season following multiple rough years with the Reds, while Hill isn’t going to be able to pitch until midseason due to his recovery from primary revision surgery." When Pineda comes back they will need to create another spot. They so also need a spot for Donaldson.

I pretty much agree with your take here. I honestly think the FO is going to go with the young guys to start the year. Through April they likely only need to cover one spot in the rotation so they just need to cover two spots for one month tops which equals 5 or six starts from the young guy(s) who fill Pineda's spot. Once Hill is back later in the year then all five spots are filled by vets until the end of the year. I think the FO wants to know what they have in a Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer or Graterol so they can make a decision on if they are a part of the teams future or not because they have Balazovic, Cole, Colina and maybe Vallimont, Enlow and Canterino who they might want to add if they pitch well this year. They can't keep all these number 4\5 starters on the 40 man so will have to make some decisions fairly soon. In the playoffs we didn't have Pineda and the issue wasn't starting pitching as much as the bullpen and the bats going quiet. I know depending on Hill is not a great strategy but he could end up being a difference maker as well. If Thorpe or one of the young guys steps up then that is timely or gravy as well. That being said if that is the plan they don't have much veteran depth if one them gets hurt and can't pitch the rest of the year. They would be vulnerable to start the year with the young pitching but I still think that is a risk they will be willing to take. If they can find a trade partner for a top-line starter I am all for it. I just don't see them doing it until they feel forced by injury or ineffectiveness of the guys they have.

Wow I never thought they would get him. Totally expected Atlanta or Washington to swoop in and grab him. I have to say I am surprised but glad they went to 92M. 95 was my high point limit was hoping for 90 but 92 works just fine. Our lineup is going to be crazy tough now. Lots or right handed power to go against lefties, There really isn't anyone you can pitch around in this lineup now and pretty much everyone is good for 20 to 30 dingers as well. Even better he helps with defense on the left side. This signing solves a lot of defensive issues. Hopefully JD stays healthy he is a big part of this team now. GO Twins and Thank You FO.

I for one am very happy it is on its way. I plan to absorb all the material as soon as possible.

This is really good news. His bat is big when he is on. I never thought he would agree to extend. Glad we get him through most of his prime. Now please just stay healthy.

Totally agree that he gives the Twins a monster lineup. 1 - 9 there would be no place to hide for a pitcher. His defense might be an even bigger boost than his offense. He would really help the team for the next two years maybe more if he ages well. if 3/75 was the prediction starting out adding a year makes it 4/100. I know it feels a year to long to get true value but it looks like that is what it will take to give us something special for the next two years.

Let me first say that Stephen was one of my favorite players coming up all the way through AAA. His K-rate and ERA always seemed to be good. I always wondered why Law was so low on him. Then I finally got to see him pitch and I could start to see why. He is not a hard thrower and his fastball didn't seem to have a ton of movement. He seemed to need to place it off the plate to have any success. His curve is really slow and seemed hittable at the MLB level. I mean it seemed like it took forever for the ball to get to the plate. Then he got hurt and it seemed like the Twins had other pitchers with better stuff ahead of him and only so many 40 man spots. I think they were hoping no one would grab him and they could stash him in AAA but that was not to be as the Mets claimed him. We will see if that turns out to be a mistake or not but I think the Twins felt he didn't have what they were looking for in a pitcher or else they would have done more to protect him. I was sad to see him go but I also understand the decision.

I would really like to see the Twins up their offer to 4/95 or 4/100. It's not that much more than their current 4/85 anyway. I think he is worth 23 or 24 M per year for at least the first two years. It looks like they are going to rely on the farm to supply the arms anyway so they should have the payroll room. If they lose out with that type of offer then fine but would like to see them stretch a little bit for the team and the fans.

Would be nice if Valdez works out as we could use all the good third base prospects we can get. What can you tell me about Lawyerson, does he throw around 95 or does he just have good secondaries? Also hard to tell how good he might be based on his E-town stats but his K rate was fantastic. I am hopeful he is the real deal. Hoping they start Canterino in High A as he didn't seem to have much trouble in A ball.

That is a pretty nice list as well. Depending on how Graterol looks in camp he could get the nod to start this year will have to wait and see. Love your Sands pick. I have been watching him and he got better as the year went on. I don't think he has premium velocity but I think he has very solid secondaries. They should start him in AA This will be a big year for him. If he continues to do well he could end up in MLB this year. Not quite as low on Gordon as you are. He might not quite have what it takes to be a starter but I still think he might be a bit of a late bloomer with the man muscles. Once he fills out I still believe he can play shortstop and if not certainly play second base. We'll see how it turns out as this is yet another big year for him.

For me I would say Rhodery Diaz from the DSL. He hit 319/406.458 for a 864 OPS. I believe he is also a center fielder. Not a lot of guys hit 300 at his age in the DSL so I think he has very good contact skills. Donny Breek is another one to watch. He has done well the last two years. I don't think he is an uber hard thrower just yet but he just turned 20 so probably a little more in the tank yet. Osiris German I believe throws a little bit harder and will turning 21 hope to see him A ball this year. His K9 looks pretty good so hoping there is something there. I also will be keeping my eye on Will Holland and Eduard Jullian to see if the Twins might have gotten a couple of steals there.

He always wanted to sign with Atlanta so I figured it would be hard to get him. We aren't a team that tends to overpay anyway. I never thought 4 years was a good idea either. Three seemed like a decent deal four seemed like a likely waste but who knows maybe he is one of those guys that does well till the end. The odd thing is he really seems to be putting the screws to the Braves. I mean if their contract is similar to what Washington has on the table and he isn't taking it that says something. If I was Atlanta I would let him go. They might be better off in the end anyway.

I agree I think they go 4/100 and not a penny more. Maybe they meet in the middle at 4/105, lol. Dang 27.5 is brutal money for a guy that might not play that well 2 out of four years. I absolutely love our lineup with him in it I am just not sure I want to invest that money in a position player instead of pitching. If the Twins are willing to go 25M or more per year then they really must have not liked Ryu all that much as they could have offered him that money and got him for 4 years.