Dman

I always liked him because he didn't strike out much. I thought with his ability to put the ball in play even if his BABIP number were lower he could still have a decent average. He proved me wrong on that assumption this past year. Maybe it's the cheer for the underdog in me but I still really like the guy. I am hoping for a rebound year at the plate for him.

Sure teams are signing long term contracts and budgeting them into the future but they are also taking on risk by doing so. The Yankess, Boston, Cubs and Dodgers all have had to sit out FA or in season moves because of the penalties of the cap. How great was there budgeting when their teams were stuck financially? The long contract is a play for today to hell with tomorrow mentality. The more money you have the more risks you can afford to fail but even the top teams have limits. We don't know what contracts Ryu has been offered maybe they are all 3 years deals. Maybe some three year deals are equal too or more than the 4 year deals he is receiving. We have no idea. Lets say the Twins have to go 4\110 to get him. That is nearly 30M a year for four years we have tied up. Lets say he hurts his arms and can't pitch in years 3 and 4. Now you have 30M less to spend the next two years when our core players are at their peak and headed to FA. That would be a bad time to lose pitching production and be 30M short in the budget to make moves. Yes the FO is looking at this year and beyond and what we know is there has never been a budget so far that has been over 130M per year. And if you look at the team salaries in our division every team except Detroit has had about the same budget year in and year out fluctuating from around 90M to 130M. Take 30M out of that budget for future years and you can see why it is a big deal to get production from that player for the full number of years. You can hurt payroll flexibility in a hurry with one big bad deal. Does that mean never take the risk? Of coarse not but with an older player like Ryu you would want to do due diligence. You would want to try and do a three year deal if possible. You are correct pretty much every player takes the most guaranteed money despite the AAV and if I was a pitcher at his age I would as well. The Twins will have to decide if he is worth 4 years or not.

Yeah I have to say I was surprised. Surprised that the other teams didn't value any of the players we had available, Ouch! I also thought more chances might be taken with a 26 man roster but again I was wrong. The FO did a good job of identifying who to put on the 40 man. Honestly I think teams have gotten smarter about the rule V draft. Most players taken are not quite ready for MLB. Teams are better off getting left overs from free agency and signing them to low dollar contracts. I mean the top half dozen teams really bad teams probably have nothing to lose in Rule V so why not pick someone anyone, but after that most teams are better off not wasting the roster spot.

If owners besides the top revenue producing teams operated that way then I see no issue with what you are saying. But dead money matters, think Phil Hughes. The Twins sold their 2nd round draft choice just to get rid of him and likely felt lucky. The "flexibility" to spend has its limits. Sure with no cap you can spend what you want but most teams don't. Take the Red Sox for instance. They gave long term deals to several players and now they want to get under the cap so that they don't have penalties. If they can't get creative they might not be able to sign their best player. As you say there is no cap so why don't they keep on spending? Probably because there is a limit. You can work the numbers anyway you want to budget for your team. You don't have to do all three years deals but with older players given they can become liabilities at any time it seems to me you mitigate the risk of not having money to spend by limiting the years of the contract. With too many long term deals your team can be bad and you still have to pay a lot of money think the Tigers not that long ago. Ryu is an older player who likely, hopefully is able to give us two decent years. Maybe he gives us three or four hard to say but the odds are not in the teams favor the older he gets therefor it makes sense to play the odds and get out the contract as soon as you can and apply that money to next the guy who can help IMO. It very possible you could tie up 25M for no production in the fourth year and if the budget is essentially 150M that is gonna hurt. If your budget is 300M then maybe not so much. I still think dead money is an issue. If I felt the Twins would spend more then I can agree with you that the total dollars is all that matters but I don't see them doing that.

I see your point if the higher dollar amount is all that matters sure 4/100 isn't that much different from 3/90. Players don't worry if they can produce in year 4 or not because the money is guaranteed. That is why players\agents always shoot for more years. Odds are there is no contract after this one so get what you can while you can. The AAV is less for the team so they have a few more million to spend per year as well. That is all fine until you get to year 4 when you are still on the hook for 20 some Million instead of zero dollars. For the team having that dead weight in salary year four is a hindrance to signing other FA or extending your own good players (i.e. see the Red Sox dilemma this year) While you say there is not salary cap there is a budget cap that every team has. Staying as agile as possible financially should allow you to have money to spend in FA on a yearly basis. Short term deals help achieve that. The further out in years you go with more players you take on more financial risk. So three years versus four is simply risk management to me. You are hoping to get more efficient production per year from the player and remain financially agile in case that player regresses. It makes sense to me and if I was owner and my front office got me the player for 3/90 instead of 4/100 I would be thanking them for saving me 10M especially if I get to put it back in my pocket.

Yeah I even upped my estimate on the 3 year. We can handle three years even if it all goes south. We have space this year for sure and likely next year as well. So just year three for a possible pinch and other contracts come off as well so they can still maneuver. They could probably handle a 4th year with likely little to no production from him but it would kind of suck as that would be the time we would need to consider paying some of our younger guys unless they get extended. 3 years is the sweet spot for me. Maybe they do an option year to make the dollar amount sound better?

3/85 is about as high as I would go. Maybe 3/90 if needed. I would do my best to keep the years down even if I have to go with a higher AAV. Sell him hard on the Manager of the year and good clubhouse. The beautiful Minnesota stadium and all the things our city and state has to offer. If you just had to go four years then 4/110 is the limit and I guess we likely eat one or two years on the end of that contract. We just have to have someone good this year. We really need him. I would not go five years though. With that injury history it could be Phil Hughes II.

Yeah looks like K rate must be King for these kind of signings. Other teams must have figured Jax's stuff wouldn't play well at the MLB level or he would have been selected. Glad no one Grabbed Rijo that was the only one I thought might kind of hurt. I know Wander and his 4M price tag might have hurt as well but he hasn't shown much to this point yet. Hopefully next year is his breakout year.

I think he is indicating that these guys could be used in the five spot but you would hope they end up a mid rotation piece in that role instead of staying a five. These types of pickups are always a gamble because you can end up with a pitcher that is worse than a rookie number 5 as well. Not sure if now is the right time for the Twins to take that kind of gamble though as they are trying to improve or at least maintain a 101 win team. The Twins should be shooting for surer production not gambles. I do agree with others that if the coaches are good enough to improve those guys why can't they improve the young guys we already have? Poppen, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and Dobnak, have already done well at the AA levels and pretty well at the AAA levels as well. Aren't they a tweak or two away as well? Not to mention Graterol, Duran, and Balazovich who have heavy fastballs and are set to dominate in AA this coming year. Even Cole or Vallimont could surprise us this year. Let's work some magic with the some of the guys we have.

I think we are going to miss out on the second tier pitchers this year. They might add some higher end relief pitchers if they can get short term deals. I think they play their typical waiting game now as once the big fish are gone the prices will likely drop for the guys who are left. They will get their bargain 5th starter that way. With the Eddie news it looks like they are going to have to try and find their pitcher upgrade with a trade. I would hate to see Eddie go as he still has All Star upside and is going to be a good hitter for a long time. If a team can teach him patience at the plate he will be a really, really good player for a long time. Guys with great contact skills tend to hang around. I am a little bit surprised at how high the dollar values went for pitching in FA this year. I thought we would better be able to compete. Even the LAD and LAA lost out on getting Cole so they have to be bummed out as well. Teams had to go big or go home empty this year and that is not the Twins MO. I still think the Twins can find a pitcher to upgrade the team out there and I have hope that some of the pitchers in AA step up and become better than 5th starters as well.

He is a guy that gets it. Always nice to see players be incredibly thoughtful. He will be missed but I still think he needed a fresh start. Hopefully his moving on works out OK for the Twins as well.

I was surprised at the lack of interest in Odo by other teams. Surely another team could have offered Tampa more than Palacios. A straight up one for one trade so that Tampa could dump some salary was a great move by the FO. Everyone on the Twins side liked that trade. I can't think of anyone who didn't like it. Trades like that don't happen often.

I don't know if it is negativity as much as disappointment. Like expecting or hoping to get an Iphone for Christmas for the last ten years and getting a flip phone every year instead. The flip phone gets the job done but isn't elite like the I-phone. I am not saying the FO is wrong not to take on some of these deals but I really thought given how the market worked out the last few years that we had a really good chance at a decent deal with one of the tier two starters. Given the years and dollars or both plus teams with an inside track to resign those players things look grim for upgrading the rotation IMO. While our pitching might be good enough to win the division or manage a wild card berth it doesn't look capable of handling teams in the playoffs. The window is open and we are close it would have been nice to find a pitcher to give us a chance to get over the hump.

Who are the best guys after Ryu and Bumgarner? That should be the question. I just don't see this FO significantly outbidding other teams for these guys. The money they are commanding is starting to get silly. I agree with Kato87 that LA will resign Ryu regardless of what the Twins offer. It was fun to dream while it lasted but now the fallback (reality) plan is in full swing. Find a third tier guy and hope the young guys step up I guess.

Thanks for this article! My gut just doesn't think Bumgarner will be worth the money he will be getting. At this point I don't think there is a way to get value out of a Bumgarner signing. I like him but if it takes 20M a year AAV for 4 or 5 years I don't see him living up to that. Maybe I am wrong and he will rebound and be great the next couple of years but something tells me he more likely is who he is at this point than who he was before. If he is who he is then our number 5 starters are almost as good.

I hope you are right as I think 20 per year is the highest they will go as that was AAV they had for Wheeler and obviously they liked him better. We will see they could still surprise me.

I agree. I don't think the Twins will ultimately like the AAV and the years needed to land him. I think they will look for better value for their money. If that is the case then I agree they would have the money for another tier three guy or reclamation project or two. Could also try and pull off a trade but it would likely be hard to find a team willing to give up young pitching for potential Left fielders and 1st basemen. They already have lots of young 5th starter types so don't need more of those. I don't see the Twins going over 4\80 to sign MadBum and it looks like it will take more than that to get him.

I tend to agree with your analysis here and I think we see it borne out in looking at teams in the bottom half of revenues. Teams like Tampa and Oakland with less money in their budget need to maximize the dollar value per performance a player gives to the team. They have to take more risks on development and sometimes even trade productive players early to get some type of decent return. Granted the Twins revenue is higher and they can take slightly more risk in the FA pool but those parameters and type of thinking still apply IMO. Smaller market teams have a harder time selling out for high priced free agents because it limits what they can do with the rest of the roster and if the that player gets injured or becomes unproductive it really upsets the balance of the team. That being said when a window presents itself it seems best to take advantage of it. I think the Twins will be looking for FA player production that gives them good value for the dollar. Using this mindset i think that with the Bumgarner bidding going up the less likely I see him becoming a Twin. I think they likely drop down to Ryu or Keuchel. I think years and dollars matter more to teams that generate less revenue. Granted there are and can be exceptions I just think the Twins FO will ultimately still look for better value when push come to shove.

I am not sure if they have that in mind or not but I do agree that they most likely want to rely on the farm to supply pitching. Falvey will follow the Cleveland blueprint of developing pitching as much as possible. IMO for smaller market teams to be really successful they need to develop at least one top of the rotation starter from their farm system and likely another good mid tier starter. Having top of the line low cost pitching allows the team to spend elsewhere or extend valuable young players to remain competitive. The Twins did this and dominated the division when they had Santana. KC did it when they had Yordano Ventura. Oakland and Tampa do a good job of this as has Cleveland and they are pretty successful small market teams year in and year out. I think the Twins will follow that trend. Granted that doesn't mean the Twins can't take a chance on a good FA starter especially with their window wide open but I can also see where they still might look for the farm to deliver if the money and years for a FA don't make sense to them.

Yeah I agree with you. I think they need two veteran starters since Pineda has that suspension and we will want veteran depth anyway. They have the money to sign one of the better tier two starters and then take a risk on some bounce back pitcher for the rotation or pen or both. They have about 30M to spend tops in my mind and they might want to try and extend some guys so they will want some room to maneuver is my guess. Also we have to remember they will be looking not just at what this years payroll is but how it will affect future years and with big FA money expenditures you want the years and price right because a mistake will hamstring payroll flexibility for the team in the future. I don't love Bumgarner for some reason just a gut feeling I guess but it would be nice to have a left hander that can get decent results. I just question how much he has left in the tank so would be nice to only have to go 4 years but that might not get it done. I don't like Ryu either but if he can be had for three years or less he seems worth the risk. I don't see us getting Cole as this is not his preferred destination and he makes the budget tight for the forseeable future. I think Strass Stays with the Nats and I think Nats let Rendon go to the Dodgers unless some other team steps up big time. Keuchel would make us better but I don't see him as top of the rotation starter but more mid level. I honestly don't know what they will do. They have the money to get whoever they want. I guess it just depends on if that player wants to come to Minnesota and if the Twins feel like the terms of the deal fit the needs for the team now and in the future. Here's hoping we find a good match.

I wasn't initially a fan of this signing because of his K issues but his K rate is closer to 30% versus right handers so I can live with that especially with his excellent walk rate. Alex looks like a solid platoon mate with Garver and it sounds like his defense has improved as well. Solid pickup for the Bomba squad.

Have to say I am relieved that we added another solid pitcher to the rotation and at a very fair price point to boot. Given the prices the second tier was receiving I was getting worried we might get aced out on the third tier as well. I was hoping they could get a two year deal and they managed to get it done. Since it was only a two year deal I thought it would cost more but 10M per year for a guy who was our top pitcher at the end of the year seems like a good get to me. This team should be a good fit for Pineda as well. Rocco will make sure he gets the rest he needs and the club house is good as well. I'd say he did well to stay in Minnesota.

I think Odo misread the market as he could have gotten 20 Mil pr year for at least 3 years if not more in this market. He must think he can command even more next year. Glad the Twins have at least one pitcher. Looks like all these guys will be over pays this year. I hope we get one and it is the right one.

Personally I don't see the Twins paying for the available 3rd basemen out there so I think Sano stays at 3rd this year. I think Garver does get rotated to 1st base some but is good in the catcher spot and will need days off so likely not a primary 1st baseman candidate. Gonzales doesn't really have the power or OPS you would like out of that spot so while he can play there I don't think that is an optimal use of the position. Depending on how you feel about his K rate Raley seems like the most likely player to get an opportunity at 1st base to me. He is already on the 40 man he can play 1st and rotate out and play the outfield as well. Is his K rate too high to give him a try? I don't know the answer to that but I think he could be a good option there. Kirilloff makes better contact but he is not on the 40 man and he needs to prove he can handle AA pitching better as well as AAA IMO. If he is hot to start the year he could land there. He has that sweet swing and can play the outfield as well. I think 1st base would be a good long term home for him but it feels a little too early to put him there this year to me. If Rooker can prove he can K less and walk more then his light tower power would play at 1st base as well. I know there are questions about his defense at 1st base but he is your typical 1st base DH type of hitter. He is not on the 40 man though and he needs to get that K rate down to get his shot. I don't think he would be an early option for 1st base for the Twins. Looking at these options the reality is they may need to find someone from outside to fill that spot. I guess it depends on how you feel about the internal options.

I think those were both good moves. Cron will likely have issues getting back to where he was and the Twins have options for 1st base as it is and potentially freeing up that money hopefully helps us get some pitching. Hildenberger just hasn't been good enough to take up a forty man spot for a team that is looking to compete for the playoffs and beyond. Gives the FO lots of options to make the roster better. Hopefully they take advantage of the opportunity.