this team is better than the August 25 Twins but worse than the May 25 Twins. That was a 70 win team, no flukey injuries, Buxton had his healthiest season in years. That 70 wins is the baseline.
If López tears his UCL opening day, there’s no way this team wins 67 games.
If Buxton doesn’t have an extremely healthy season, there’s no way this team wins 67 games.
If Ryan and Lopez both get devastating injuries early in the season, this team might compete with the Pale Hose for historic ineptitude.
If there’s better than average health and a ton of things go right in developing a bullpen and seeing Royce and Wallner return to form, absolutely they could be a 500 team. .500 could place them competing for the division.
Far more likely we see injuries and the usual development pendulum