Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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Forum Friday: In Case You Missed It...
Richie the Rally Goat replied to USAFChief's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed @USAFChiefwe have the best (and best looking) posters in Twins Territory! -
Does Cory Provous have a twins daily account?
Richie the Rally Goat replied to C-Gangster's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I have a confession to make. I was so confused when Sonny Gray purchased me at Barnes and Noble then brought me to the ballpark. Then after a couple weeks he forgot about me, left me here at TD… to be a pain in all your asses. No idea if he keeps his handle up, he won’t respond to my PMs. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-wild-walk-off-propels-them-over-tigers?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share -
Target field is one of the few mlb ballparks where you can still do that.
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In terms of semantics, wRC+ and OPS+ are qualitative not quantitative and are preferred as better predictors than batting average. Dusting off my college math, I think I’m getting at the parameter (the f) of the statistic. Y=f(x), the x would be plate appearances and y would be “how much value a hitter is predicted to have on the season” kinda crude WAR. Wallner falls about 80 plate appearances shy of TK index to hit sample size. Does he need those 80 plate appearances to make his career 130ish wRC+ statistically significant? Or is the ~30% above average not qualify?
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wRC+ (FG) or OPS+ (BBR) are nearly identical, they are a convenient all encompassing stat of weighted inputs to run creation on a 100=league average scale. They are not the be-all end-all by any stretch, but they are good and convenient, much the way OPS was the nerd stat du sur 15 years ago. Clearly you know this, but its too early to use much statistical analysis this season. On Monday Wallner had a 200 wRC+ yesterday it was 95, today it’s 77, tomorrow it could be 50 or 150, wRC doesn’t matter. Clearly I’m a Fangraphs guy.
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Larnach, Bell and Wallner are all bad fielders and there can only be one DH, but those are 3 of the 6 best hitters on this team and it drops off precipitously if Wallner can regain his 2023/2024 magic, I’d be thrilled, and I am optimistic his adjustments can get him headed in the right direction.
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IKR!
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No, Larnach’s numbers are not better than Wallner’s. Wallner has a better OBP (.344 to .327) and much better ISO (.261 to .169). This leads to a better wRC+ as Wallner is 33% above league average since 2023 while Larnach is 7% of league average. 133 puts Wallner 19th of all major leaguers in that time frame. Larnach is 111 out of 268 players with 900 PAs since 2023.
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My Hope-O-Meter is way down. The phrase “Rudderless” gets used around here a lot lately and it fits. The ownership and FO have been in absolute disarray for years, and this offseason showed that the ownership finally understood that, but just threw gasoline on the fire.
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I’m not saying he had a good season for his standards, but a 114 wRC+ is 14% better than average by definition. Wallner is strong enough that he doesn’t need to pull the ball to get it over the fence. Agreed with the OP he’s doing the right things. Optimistic the results follow the process.
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Very funny Matt
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^And the FO^
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The first signal looked like it was during his follow through, but looked like he could have been adjusting his hat
- 5 replies
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- derek shelton
- josh bell
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Dozens and dozens of fans at the ballpark!
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3 Blewis!
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I laughed, I cried, I laughed some more.
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Why in the world does a guy with 700 PAs of .630 OPS keep getting brought up as a viable starting 3B?
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correction - there was one RBI
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correct - also terrible
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Martin can give Buck a day off here and there
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nope
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got one run back
