Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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I don’t really love WAR either, but it’s convenient! I think having a high number of inherited runners relative to the league would be counter-value. 1) you usually have multiple relievers per game, but only 1 starter. A high strand count would mean your relievers are putting a lot of runners on the bases and not striking them out. 2) a high strand rate without count doesn’t tell you much either. 100% strand rate but only 2 inherited runners isn’t useful. WPA Win Probability Added, and Leverage stats can give you some of that flavor. But they aren’t predictive or comprehensive. The Twins Bullpen ranked 11th in MLB in 2024 by WPA. Again it’s a cumulative stat, so fewer chances, less accumulation. edit to add: The Twins scored the 4th most runs in baseball last year, blowouts don’t accumulate WPA, late and close does. i really like WHIP as a stat I firmly understand and it tells me how well the pitcher took care of business. Fewer base runners per inning pitched is a good thing! Twins bullpen ranked 13 in 2024. -
Sands, Stewart and Topa have shown it over the course of a season, Alcala has had stretches, the pen could be very good, but there’s also a ton of risk because all 4 of them are the definition of volatile relievers. boom or bust
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SWR at 133 innings was 77th in WAR, 77th k-bb%, 74th in WHIP, 68th in ERA. that makes a Rookie a top 80 starting pitcher, and since there’s 30 teams, he would have been an improvement over the existing number 3 pitcher on 10-15 teams (if pitching quality were evenly distributed)
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Sites such as these don’t have editors, so this stuff happens. The Athletic has many of the same issues and that’s The NY Times fer cryin in da beer….
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- charlee soto
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Sure is! The standard of deviation of runs scored per game could tell a very different story than simple sum. “Uneven” matters relative to the other teams. For all I know, the distribution falls right inside the league average or well outside to be an outlier.
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- rocco baldelli
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Are not! I do not believe you :) from a fan’s perspective, 3 true outcomes is terribly boring to watch, but it’s hard to argue with being the 6th highest scoring team from 2019 through 2024.
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- rocco baldelli
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Living in NW Wi, cable/dish providers picked me up as Brewers area but MLB.tv picked me up as Twins area. I haven’t been able to watch legally for years and I missed it, especially last year when Provus went to TV. i go to 10 games per year, and I’m super excited to pay my $100 per year to watch the Twins on TV!
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- dave st peter
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Lottery tickets are independent outcomes. 2 top 100 prospects are more valuable as currency, but they are still independent in their odds of success. the ROI we should be measuring is not Jose Berrios, that trade was player for prospects. is 2 top 100 prospects commensurate? Seems so as you hold the outcomes of what happened after the trade in somewhat low regard. Rather, the ROI should be measured on the minor league coaching and training apparatus. Does the coaching machine work better than its peers? Are there subsets more efficient at producing higher quality outcomes than others?
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Top prospects become competent major leaguers at something like 25-50%. https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects SWR was 86th in 2021, I wasn’t able to find Austin Martin in the top 100. SWR had a 17% chance of being “successful” not even “excellent”. Realistically they weren’t going to trade 1.5 years of Berrios for guaranteed 6 years of Berrios. It’s a chance at 6 years of Berrios.
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agreed, Falvey needs to make a move or two, or the offseason is a failure. Even if it is a failure, this team can be competitive. The scores the 4th most runs in the AL last year. 5th most runs in AL ‘23. Is that not competitive? I will always prefer competitive to rebuild. Rebuilds suck!
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- derek falvey
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I read this signing as fungible, a guy that isn’t on the 40, but if he gets added they can DFA when they need the roster spot and not feel bad about. as to why Severino and Williams “want” to be in the org, I don’t think that’s relevant. They’re both under contract.
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That was super-duper fun! More please
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Do-Hyoung Park Moving on from Twins Beatwriting
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Matthew Leach is still an editor at MLB.com, clearly a placeholder. odd though, while there will absolutely be a whole bunch of turmoil at 1 Twins Way and 250 Nicollet Mall, Suite 600, I can’t imagine it’ll cause that much kerfluffel at MLB, unless it’s the media rights deals being the primary influencer here. -
Do-Hyoung Park Moving on from Twins Beatwriting
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
https://www.mlb.com/news/matthew-leach-new-mlb-com-twins-reporter?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share -
Do-Hyoung Park Moving on from Twins Beatwriting
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Best wishes Do! -
Who knows what their record would have been, but I can guarantee that it would have been less than 82 wins. If you like watching losing teams, you would have loved 1995 to 2001, and basically the whole TR2.0 tenure. Me? I’ll take a winning record over a losing one, every year
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If last offseason they had traded Correa for prospects, it would have traded away 20% of team fWAR on a team that was 4th in runs scored in the AL. They would have gone from 10th in MLB fWAR to 18th.
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That and Royce is already on the roster, they would still need to replace Correa’s output.
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I’m not even a millennial and I find this post a sad facsimile of satire.
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Kepler Signs With Phillies
Richie the Rally Goat replied to shortround81's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Good for Kep! -
Ya, and Castro is still the utility but now free
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Polanco was the glue that held the 2023 Twins together? 2023 Twins were 5% above AL average in runs scored, ranked 5th. 2024 Twins were 15.5% above AL average in runs scored ranked 4th. Correlation is not causation. i think it was all the injuries happening at once in August 2024 that caused the collapse, and not some clubhouse cancer that Polanco would have saved. edit to add: agreed with the OP that chemistry does matter, but it’s not black and white. Social chemistry is harder to quantify than molecular chemistry.
